A Study of Plant Species Extinction in Singapore: Lessons for the Conservation of Tropical Biodiversity

The native vascular plant flora of the Republic of Singapore has suffered the extinction of 594 out of a total 2277 species. These represent local, not global, species extinctions. Coastal habitats, including mangroves, have lost 39% of their species, while inland forests have last 29%. Epiphytic species (62% loss) appear particularly prone to extinction, which is reflected in a similar disposition exhibited by the Orchidaceae. Deforestation and disturbance have been the main cause of plant species extinction in Singapore. The rich mangrove epiphyte flora has been totally exterminated, and a number of tree species are reduced to populations of a few mature individuals. Many more species continue to survive than the species-area relationship would predict given the 99.8% loss of primary forest. This is interpreted as a result of the failure of equilibrium to be achieved yet in the remnant forest fragments, even after more than a century of isolation. Singapore's secondary forests appear to accrete plant diversity very slowly, even if contiguous with primary forest areas. We conclude that remnant fragments of primary tropical forest, even of very small size, can play a major role in the conservation of tropical biodiversity. The patterns of extinction observed in Singapore indicate that coastal and estuarine sites are in greatest demand for development and therefore must be given high priority for conservation despite their somewhat lower biodiversity. Epiphyte and orchid diversity appear to be very good indicators of the degree of disturbance suffered by a habitat in the humid tropics.     

Human disturbance and shifts in vertebrate community composition in a biodiversity hotspot

Understanding how human modification of the landscape shapes vertebrate community composition is vital to understanding the current status and future trajectory of wildlife. Using a participatory approach, we deployed the largest camera-trap network in Mesoamerica to date to investigate how anthropogenic disturbance shapes the occupancy and co-occurrence of terrestrial vertebrate species in a tropical biodiversity hotspot: the Osa Peninsula, Costa Rica. We estimated species richness in different categories of land protection with rarefaction analysis and estimated the expected occupancy with a joint species distribution model that included covariates for anthropogenic disturbance, land protection, habitat quality, and habitat availability. Areas with the most stringent land-use protections (e.g., Corcovado National Park, 24 species [95% CI 23–25]) harbored significantly more species than unprotected areas (20 species [19.7–20.3]), mainly due to a reduced presence of large-bodied species of conservation concern in unprotected areas (e.g., jaguar Panthera onca and white-lipped peccary Tayassu pecari). Small-bodied generalist species, such as opossums (Didelphidae) and armadillos (Dasypus novemcinctus), in contrast, were more common at disturbed sites, resulting in a significant difference in vertebrate community composition between sites with low and high disturbance. Co-occurrence of species was also mainly associated with response to disturbance. Similar responses to disturbance create two groups of species, those whose site-level occupancy usually increased as anthropogenic disturbance increased and those whose estimated occupancy decreased. The absence of large-bodied species entails an important loss of ecological function in disturbed areas and can hinder forest development and maintenance. Efforts to protect and restore forested landscapes are likely having a positive effect on the abundance of some threatened species. These efforts, however, must be sustained and expanded to increase connectivity and ensure the long-term viability of the wildlife community.     

Effects of Land Use on Bird Species Richness in Sulawesi, Indonesia

Abstract:  There is still much debate over the potential value of land-use systems for the maintenance of tropical biodiversity. An increasing number of studies indicate that much forest biodiversity can also be found in the agricultural landscape matrix. Because there is little information on the potential value of land-use systems for tropical forest bird species, we conducted repeated point counts in near-primary forest, adjacent young secondary forest, modernized cacao agroforestry systems, and annual cultures at submontane elevations in central Sulawesi, Indonesia. Species richness decreased from natural forest and young secondary forest to agroforestry systems and annual cultures. Although species richness was similar between natural and young secondary forest, the number of endemic bird species was significantly lower in second-growth forest. Species composition gradually changed as the habitat changed from natural to secondary forest, agroforestry systems, and annual cultures. Despite close proximity to near-primary forest, the agroforestry systems studied supported only a few small frugivorous-nectarivorous species. Our results suggest that secondary forest could play an important role in the conservation of many Sulawesi bird species, but, although suitable for colonization, its potential to sustain populations over the long term is unknown. Improvement of the landscape matrix for biodiversity conservation through secondary habitats therefore seems desirable to enlarge the ranges of forest species, but the fight against land conversion within protected areas of the region should be of much higher importance, at least at present.     

Effect of Slash-and-Burn Shifting Cultivation on Rainforest Birds in Mizoram, Northeast India

Abstract: Slash-and-burn shifting cultivation, or jhum , the predominant form of agriculture in the hill tracts of northeast India, is believed to have caused considerable loss of forest cover in the species-rich tropical rainforests of the region. In this study I sought to understand how rainforest bird communities are affected by shifting cultivation in Mizoram State. I studied bird occurrence and abundance patterns in secondary successional and mature tropical rainforests in a shifting-cultivation habitat mosaic in Dampa Tiger Reserve. To compare replicate sites in fallows aged 1, 5, 10, 25, and 100 years with undisturbed primary forest, I used systematic strip-transect sampling over the winter and early summer ( breeding) seasons during 1994–1995. Many forest bird species, especially those with ranges restricted to northeast India, declined in abundance or disappeared in successional fallows that had regenerated for ≤10 years. Birds that colonized or increased in abundance in regrowth habitats were mainly common and widespread species of open-country and secondary-forest habitats, and of low importance for conservation. Primary forest was the main habitat for specialized forest birds, intrinsically rare species, and elevational migrants. Although protection and conservation of relatively undisturbed mature forests is imperative in the core area of the reserve, management in the buffer zone for long-rotation shifting cultivation (>10-year cycles) instead of plantation of monocultures may be important until alternate means of livelihood are available to cultivators.     

China's endemic vertebrates sheltering under the protective umbrella of the giant panda

The giant panda attracts disproportionate conservation resources. How well does this emphasis protect other endemic species? Detailed data on geographical ranges are not available for plants or invertebrates, so we restrict our analyses to 3 vertebrate taxa: birds, mammals, and amphibians. There are gaps in their protection, and we recommend practical actions to fill them. We identified patterns of species richness, then identified which species are endemic to China, and then which, like the panda, live in forests. After refining each species' range by its known elevational range and remaining forest habitats as determined from remote sensing, we identified the top 5% richest areas as the centers of endemism. Southern mountains, especially the eastern Hengduan Mountains, were centers for all 3 taxa. Over 96% of the panda habitat overlapped the endemic centers. Thus, investing in almost any panda habitat will benefit many other endemics. Existing panda national nature reserves cover all but one of the endemic species that overlap with the panda's distribution. Of particular interest are 14 mammal, 20 bird, and 82 amphibian species that are inadequately protected. Most of these species the International Union for Conservation of Nature currently deems threatened. But 7 mammal, 3 bird, and 20 amphibian species are currently nonthreatened, yet their geographical ranges are <20,000 km² after accounting for elevational restriction and remaining habitats. These species concentrate mainly in Sichuan, Yunnan, Nan Mountains, and Hainan. There is a high concentration in the east Daxiang and Xiaoxiang Mountains of Sichuan, where pandas are absent and where there are no national nature reserves. The others concentrate in Yunnan, Nan Mountains, and Hainan. Here, 10 prefectures might establish new protected areas or upgrade local nature reserves to national status.     

Effects of Conversion of Dry Tropical Forest to Agricultural Mosaic on Herpetofaunal Assemblages

Abstract: We explored the impact of forest conversion to agricultural mosaic on anuran, lizard, snake, and turtle assemblages of Neotropical dry forests. Over 2 years, we sampled 6 small watersheds on the west coast of Mexico, 3 conserved and 3 disturbed. The disturbed watersheds were characterized by a mosaic of pastures and cultivated fields (corn, beans, squash) intermingled with patches of different successional stages of dry forest. In each watershed, we conducted 11 diurnal and nocturnal time‐constrained searches in 10 randomly established plots. We considered vulnerability traits of species in relation to habitat modification. Eighteen anuran, 18 lizard, 23 snake, and 3 turtle species were recorded. Thirty‐six species (58%) occurred in both forest conditions, and 14 (22%) and 12 species (19%) occurred only in the conserved and disturbed sites, respectively. Assemblages responded differently to disturbance. Species richness, diversity, and abundance of lizards were higher in disturbed forests. Anuran diversity and species richness were lower in disturbed forest but abundance was similar in both forest conditions. Diversity, richness, and abundance of turtles were lower in disturbed forest. The structure and composition of snake assemblages did not differ between forest conditions. We considered species disturbance sensitive if their abundance was significantly less in disturbed areas. Four anuran (22%), 2 lizard (11%), and 3 turtle (100%) species were sensitive to disturbance. No snake species was sensitive. The decline in abundance of disturbance‐sensitive species was associated with the reduction of forest canopy cover, woody stem cover, roots, and litter‐layer ground cover. Anuran species with small body size and direct embryonic development were especially sensitive to forest disturbance. An important goal for the conservation of herpetofauna should be the determination of species traits associated with extinction or persistence in agricultural mosaics.     

Recovery of Faunal Communities During Tropical Forest Regeneration

Abstract:  As mature tropical forests are cleared, secondary forests may play an important role in the conservation of animal species, depending on how fast animal communities recover during forest regeneration. I reviewed published studies on the recovery of animal species richness and composition during tropical forest regeneration. In 38 of the 39 data sets I examined, conversion of forest to agriculture or pasture substantially reduced species richness. Given suitable conditions for forest recovery, the species richness of the animal taxa considered can be predicted to resemble that of mature forests roughly 20–40 years after land abandonment. At least for ants and birds, however, recovery of species composition appears to take substantially longer than recovery of species richness. Because species richness for many taxa appears to recover relatively rapidly in secondary forests, conservation of secondary forests may be an effective investment in future diversity. The slower recovery of species composition indicates, however, that some species will require stands of mature forest to persist.     

Vulnerability and Resilience of Tropical Forest Species to Land‐Use Change

Abstract: We provide a cross‐taxon and historical analysis of what makes tropical forest species vulnerable to extinction. Several traits have been important for species survival in the recent and distant geological past, including seed dormancy and vegetative growth in plants, small body size in mammals, and vagility in insects. For major past catastrophes, such as the five mass extinction events, large range size and vagility or dispersal were key to species survival. Traits that make some species more vulnerable to extinction are consistent across time scales. Terrestrial organisms, particularly animals, are more extinction prone than marine organisms. Plants that persist through dramatic changes often reproduce vegetatively and possess mechanisms of die back. Synergistic interactions between current anthropogenic threats, such as logging, fire, hunting, pests and diseases, and climate change are frequent. Rising temperatures threaten all organisms, perhaps particularly tropical organisms adapted to small temperature ranges and isolated by distance from suitable future climates. Mutualist species and trophic specialists may also be more threatened because of such range‐shift gaps. Phylogenetically specialized groups may be collectively more prone to extinction than generalists. Characterization of tropical forest species’ vulnerability to anthropogenic change is constrained by complex interactions among threats and by both taxonomic and ecological impediments, including gross undersampling of biotas and poor understanding of the spatial patterns of taxa at all scales.     

Effect of scale on trait predictors of species responses to agriculture

Species persistence in human‐altered landscapes can depend on factors operating at multiple spatial scales. To understand anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity, it is useful to examine relationships between species traits and their responses to land‐use change. A key knowledge gap concerns whether these relationships vary depending on the scale of response under consideration. We examined how local‐ and large‐scale habitat variables influence the occupancy dynamics of a bird community in cloud forest zones in the Colombian Chocó‐Andes. Using data collected across a continuum of forest and agriculture, we examined which traits best predict species responses to local variation in farmland and which traits best predict species responses to isolation from contiguous forest. Global range size was a strong predictor of species responses to agriculture at both scales; widespread species were less likely to decline as local habitat cover decreased and as distance from forest increased. Habitat specialization was a strong predictor of species responses only at the local scale. Open‐habitat species were particularly likely to increase as pasture increased, but they were relatively insensitive to variation in distance to forest. Foraging plasticity and flocking behavior were strong predictors of species responses to distance from forest, but not their responses to local habitat. Species with lower plasticity in foraging behaviors and obligate flock‐following species were more likely to decline as distance from contiguous forest increased. For species exhibiting these latter traits, persistence in tropical landscapes may depend on the protection of larger contiguous blocks of forest, rather than the integration of smaller‐scale woodland areas within farmland. Species listed as threatened or near threatened on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List were also more likely to decline in response to both local habitat quality and isolation from forest relative to least‐concern species, underlining the importance of contiguous forests for threatened taxa.     

Resilience of Southwestern Amazon Forests to Anthropogenic Edge Effects

Abstract:  Anthropogenic edge effects can compromise the conservation value of mature tropical forests. To date most edge-effect research in Amazonia has concentrated on forests in relatively seasonal locations or with poor soils in the east of the basin. We present the first evaluation from the relatively richer soils of far western Amazonia on the extent to which mature forest biomass, diversity, and composition are affected by edges. In a southwestern Amazonian landscape we surveyed woody plant diversity, species composition, and biomass in 88 × 0.1 ha samples of unflooded forest that spanned a wide range in soil properties and included samples as close as 50 m and as distant as >10 km from anthropogenic edges. We applied Mantel tests, multiple regression on distance matrices, and other multivariate techniques to identify anthropogenic effects before and after accounting for soil factors and spatial autocorrelation. The distance to the nearest edge, access point, and the geographical center of the nearest community ("anthropogenic-distance effects") all had no detectable effect on tree biomass or species diversity. Anthropogenic-distance effects on tree species composition were also below the limits of detection and were negligible in comparison with natural environmental and spatial factors. Analysis of the data set's capacity to detect anthropogenic effects confirmed that the forests were not severely affected by edges, although because our study had few plots within 100 m of forest edges, our confidence in patterns in the immediate vicinity of edges is limited. It therefore appears that the conservation value of most "edge" forests in this region has not yet been compromised substantially. We caution that because this is one case study it should not be overinterpreted, but one explanation for our findings may be that western Amazonian tree species are naturally faster growing and more disturbance adapted than those farther east.     

Cost‐Effectiveness of Using Small Vertebrates as Indicators of Disturbance

In species‐rich tropical forests, effective biodiversity management demands measures of progress, yet budgetary limitations typically constrain capacity of decision makers to assess response of biological communities to habitat change. One approach is to identify ecological‐disturbance indicator species (EDIS) whose monitoring is also monetarily cost‐effective. These species can be identified by determining individual species’ responses to disturbance across a gradient; however, such responses may be confounded by factors other than disturbance. For example, in mountain environments the effects of anthropogenic habitat alteration are commonly confounded by elevation. EDIS have been identified with the indicator value (IndVal) metric, but there are weaknesses in the application of this approach in complex montane systems. We surveyed birds, small mammals, bats, and leaf‐litter lizards in differentially disturbed cloud forest of the Ecuadorian Andes. We then incorporated elevation in generalized linear (mixed) models (GL(M)M) to screen for EDIS in the data set. Finally, we used rarefaction of species accumulation data to compare relative monetary costs of identifying and monitoring EDIS at equal sampling effort, based on species richness. Our GL(M)M generated greater numbers of EDIS but fewer characteristic species relative to IndVal. In absolute terms birds were the most cost‐effective of the 4 taxa surveyed. We found one low‐cost bird EDIS. In terms of the number of indicators generated as a proportion of species richness, EDIS of small mammals were the most cost‐effective. Our approach has the potential to be a useful tool for facilitating more sustainable management of Andean forest systems. Rentabilidad del Uso de Pequeños Vertebrados como Indicadores de Perturbaciones     

Effects of Land‐Use Change on Community Composition of Tropical Amphibians and Reptiles in Sulawesi,Indonesia

Abstract: Little is known about the effects of anthropogenic land‐use change on the amphibians and reptiles of the biodiverse tropical forests of Southeast Asia. We studied a land‐use modification gradient stretching from primary forest, secondary forest, natural‐shade cacao agroforest, planted‐shade cacao agroforest to open areas in central Sulawesi, Indonesia. We determined species richness, abundance, turnover, and community composition in all habitat types and related these to environmental correlates, such as canopy heterogeneity and thickness of leaf litter. Amphibian species richness decreased systematically along the land‐use modification gradient, but reptile richness and abundance peaked in natural‐shade cacao agroforests. Species richness and abundance patterns across the disturbance gradient were best explained by canopy cover and leaf‐litter thickness in amphibians and by canopy heterogeneity and cover in reptiles. Amphibians were more severely affected by forest disturbance in Sulawesi than reptiles. Heterogeneous canopy cover and thick leaf litter should be maintained in cacao plantations to facilitate the conservation value for both groups. For long‐term and sustainable use of plantations, pruned shade trees should be permanently kept to allow rejuvenation of cacao and, thus, to prevent repeated forest encroachment.     

Meta-analysis of the differential effects of habitat fragmentation and degradation on plant genetic diversity

Genetic diversity is a key factor for population survival and evolution. However, anthropogenic habitat disturbance can erode it, making populations more prone to extinction. Aiming to assess the global effects of habitat disturbance on plant genetic variation, we conducted a meta-analysis based on 92 case studies obtained from published literature. We compared the effects of habitat fragmentation and degradation on plant allelic richness and gene diversity (equivalent to expected heterozygosity) and tested whether such changes are sensitive to different life-forms, life spans, mating systems, and commonness. Anthropogenic disturbance had a negative effect on allelic richness, but not on gene diversity. Habitat fragmentation had a negative effect on genetic variation, whereas habitat degradation had no effect. When we examined the individual effects in fragmented habitats, allelic richness and gene diversity decreased, but this decrease was strongly dependent on certain plant traits. Specifically, common long-lived trees and self-incompatible species were more susceptible to allelic richness loss. Conversely, gene diversity decreased in common short-lived species (herbs) with self-compatible reproduction. In a wider geographical context, tropical plant communities were more sensitive to allelic richness loss, whereas temperate plant communities were more sensitive to gene diversity loss. Our synthesis showed complex responses to habitat disturbance among plant species. In many cases, the absence of effects could be the result of the time elapsed since the disturbance event or reproductive systems favoring self-pollination, but attention must be paid to those plant species that are more susceptible to losing genetic diversity, and appropriate conservation should be actions taken.     

The Response of Avian Feeding Guilds to Tropical Forest Disturbance

Abstract:  Anthropogenic habitat disturbance is a major threat to tropical forests and understanding the ecological consequences of this disturbance is crucial for the conservation of biodiversity. There have been many attempts to determine the ecological traits associated with bird species' vulnerability to disturbance, but no attempt has been made to synthesize these studies to show consensus. We analyzed data from 57 published studies (covering 1214 bird species) that investigated the response of tropical bird assemblages to moderate forest disturbance (e.g., selective logging). Our results show that the mean abundance of species from six commonly reported feeding guilds responded differently to disturbance and that species' ecological traits (body size, local population size, and geographic range size) and evolutionary relationships may influence responses in some guilds. Granivore abundance increased significantly and insectivore and frugivore abundance decreased significantly following disturbance. These general conclusions were robust to the effects of ecological traits and phylogeny. Responses of carnivores, nectarivores, and omnivores were less clear, but analyses that accounted for phylogeny indicated that these guilds declined following disturbance. In contrast to the other guilds, the reported responses of carnivores and nectarivores differed among regions (Asia vs. Neotropics) and were influenced by the sampling protocols used in different studies (e.g., time since disturbance), which may explain the difficulty in detecting general responses to disturbance in these guilds. Overall, general patterns governed the responses of species to habitat disturbance, and the differential responses of guilds suggested that disturbance affects trophic organization and thus ecosystem functioning.     

The Potential for Species Conservation in Tropical Secondary Forests

Abstract: In the wake of widespread loss of old‐growth forests throughout the tropics, secondary forests will likely play a growing role in the conservation of forest biodiversity. We considered a complex hierarchy of factors that interact in space and time to determine the conservation potential of tropical secondary forests. Beyond the characteristics of local forest patches, spatial and temporal landscape dynamics influence the establishment, species composition, and persistence of secondary forests. Prospects for conservation of old‐growth species in secondary forests are maximized in regions where the ratio of secondary to old‐growth forest area is relatively low, older secondary forests have persisted, anthropogenic disturbance after abandonment is relatively low, seed‐dispersing fauna are present, and old‐growth forests are close to abandoned sites. The conservation value of a secondary forest is expected to increase over time, as species arriving from remaining old‐growth forest patches accumulate. Many studies are poorly replicated, which limits robust assessments of the number and abundance of old‐growth species present in secondary forests. Older secondary forests are not often studied and few long‐term studies are conducted in secondary forests. Available data indicate that both old‐growth and second‐growth forests are important to the persistence of forest species in tropical, human‐modified landscapes.     

Effect of Human Disturbance on Bee Communities in a Forested Ecosystem

Abstract:  It is important for conservation biologists to understand how well species persist in human-dominated ecosystems because protected areas constitute a small fraction of the Earth's surface and because anthropogenic habitats may offer more opportunities for conservation than has been previously thought. We investigated how an important functional group, pollinators (bees; Hymenoptera: Apiformes), are affected by human land use at the landscape and local scales in southern New Jersey (U.S.A.). We established 40 sites that differed in surrounding landscape cover or local habitat type and collected 2551 bees of 130 species. The natural habitat in this ecosystem is a forested, ericaceous heath. Bee abundance and species richness within forest habitat decreased, not increased, with increasing forest cover in the surrounding landscape. Similarly, bee abundance was greater in agricultural fields and suburban and urban developments than in extensive forests, and the same trend was found for species richness. Particular species groups that might be expected to show greater sensitivity to habitat loss, such as floral specialists and bees of small or large body size, did not show strong positive associations with forest habitat. Nevertheless, 18 of the 130 bee species studied were positively associated with extensive forest. One of these species is a narrow endemic that was last seen in 1939. Our results suggest that at least in this system, moderate anthropogenic land use may be compatible with the conservation of many, but not all, bee species.     

Potential Reflection of Distinct Ecological Units in Plant Endemism Categories

Abstract: The level of endemism at a site may indicate species richness of the site. Nevertheless, assessing endemism levels in taxonomic groups such as plants may be difficult because the species richness of plants is high relative to species richness of other taxonomic groups (e.g., vertebrates). A major problem in determining whether plant species are endemic is the lack of standardization of the geographic extent of endemism: species are considered endemic to, for example, countries, continents, or states. We compiled a history of the concept of endemism as it applies to plants. The application of the concept to geographic distribution dates from the 19th century, when European explorers discovered many taxa exclusive to regions outside Europe. Two types of endemism, paleoendemism and neoendemism, were then acknowledged, according to evolutionary age, and these categories are still in use. In the 20th century, most of the research on endemism focused on explaining range restriction on the basis of cytological data, edaphic and geological factors, and phylogeny. This research led to a vast number of concepts, of which only edaphic endemism remains relatively well accepted. More recently, researchers suggest that competition may determine endemism in some cases. We suggest that plants be labeled as endemic only if their distribution occurs in a distinct ecological unit, such as a biome. On the basis of a literature review of the factors that cause range restriction, we categorized endemic taxa as paleoendemic, neoendemic, edaphically endemic, or suppressed endemic. For example, Schlechtendalia luzulifolia, is a rare forb that is a paleoendemic species of the granite and sandstone‐based grasslands of the Pampa. Levels of endemism in southern Brazilian grasslands are poorly known. We emphasize the importance of recognizing these grasslands as a single transnational biome so that levels of endemism of species therein can be assessed correctly.     

Impacts of tropical forest disturbance on species vital rates

Tropical forests are experiencing enormous threats from deforestation and habitat degradation. Much knowledge of the impacts of these land-use changes on tropical species comes from studies examining patterns of richness and abundance. Demographic vital rates (survival, reproduction, and movement) can also be affected by land-use change in a way that increases species vulnerability to extirpation, but in many cases these impacts may not be manifested in short-term changes in abundance or species richness. We conducted a literature review to assess current knowledge and research effort concerning how land-use change affects species vital rates in tropical forest vertebrates. We found a general paucity of empirical research on demography across taxa and regions, with some biases toward mammals and birds and land-use transitions, including fragmentation and agriculture. There is also considerable between-species variation in demographic responses to land-use change, which could reflect trait-based differences in species sensitivity, complex context dependencies (e.g., between-region variation), or inconsistency in methods used in studies. Efforts to improve understanding of anthropogenic impacts on species demography are underway, but there is a need for increased research effort to fill knowledge gaps in understudied tropical regions and taxa. The lack of information on demographic impacts of anthropogenic disturbance makes it difficult to draw definite conclusions about the magnitude of threats to tropical ecosystems under anthropogenic pressures. Thus, determining conservation priorities and improving conservation effectiveness remains a challenge.     

Bird Species' Tolerance of Secondary Forest Habitats and Its Effects on Extinction

Abstract:  Intense deforestation causes massive species losses. These losses occur because the habitats supplanting primary forest are inadequate to sustain viable populations of forest-dependent species. Despite this, certain species do seem to persist within the secondary habitats that replace original forest. This implies that there is a special class of species that might survive the loss of primary forest. Such a result would significantly influence conservation plans and extinction predictions. We tested whether species that tolerate secondary habitats survive extensive habitat loss and whether the same degree of loss threatens species that are forest obligates. To identify purported "survivors," we compared the remaining range sizes of endemic birds, their abundances, and their degree of extinction threat. We did this within the remaining Atlantic Forest of Brazil, a region extremely rich in endemics but with only approximately 10% of its forest remaining. We found no survivors. Habitat loss threatens forest-obligate birds and those using secondary habitats equally.     

The Future of Tropical Species on a Warmer Planet

Abstract: Modern global temperature and land cover and projected future temperatures suggest that tropical forest species will be particularly sensitive to global warming. Given a moderate greenhouse gas emissions scenario, fully 75% of the tropical forests present in 2000 will experience mean annual temperatures in 2100 that are greater than the highest mean annual temperature that supports closed‐canopy forest today. Temperature‐sensitive species might extend their ranges to cool refuges, defined here as areas where temperatures projected for 2100 match 1960s temperatures in the modern range. Distances to such cool refuges are greatest for equatorial species and are particularly large for key tropical forest areas including the Amazon and Congo River Basins, West Africa, and the upper elevations of many tropical mountains. In sum, tropical species are likely to be particularly sensitive to global warming because they are adapted to limited geographic and seasonal variation in temperature, already lived at or near the highest temperatures on Earth before global warming began, and are often isolated from cool refuges. To illustrate these three points, we examined the distributions and habitat associations of all extant mammal species. The distance to the nearest cool refuge exceeded 1000 km for more than 20% of the tropical and less than 4% of the extratropical species with small ranges. The biological impact of global warming is likely to be as severe in the tropics as at temperate and boreal latitudes.