Sustainability and the measurement of future paths in genuine savings: case studies

This paper extrapolates future paths of genuine savings (GS) by using our integrated assessment model. The results with the base case (BC) indicate that both GS without population change (GS) and GS with population change (GSn) are almost positive in OECD countries in the twenty-first century (satisfying the necessary but insufficient condition for sustainability); those numbers are projected to be negative in 2100. Asia (ASIA), the Middle East and Africa (MEAF), the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe (FSEE), and the world show upward trends for both values, showing negative signs in 2010 and positive signs after 2050 (in ASIA, MEAF, and the world) and in 2100 (in FSEE). The values in Latin America (LAMR) remain negative throughout. We examine additional following three cases: demand reduction (DR), carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction (CR), and population reduction (PR). The GSn results compared to the BC indicate that (1) GSn in DR is similar to that of BC, (2) GSn in PR is slightly higher than that of BC, and (3) GSn in CR is unexpectedly lower than that of BC. This GSn reduction in the CR case derives from the fact that the term for calculating resource depletion (especially resource rent, which equals the difference between price and cost) in GS and GSn increased, leading to a greater term being subtracted from gross savings. The resource price increases with the marginal price of natural gas, given the energy-source shift in reducing CO₂ emissions, from cheap coal to expensive natural gas.     

A regional-scale sustainable development index: the case of Baja California Sur,Mexico

Sustainable development, as a multi-dimensional concept, is difficult to measure. Some efforts using indicators and indices have appeared in recent years, but most were developed on a national scale. Use of sustainability indicators has proven valuable for attaining better management of the environment by minimizing information gaps and maximizing community capabilities in terms of economic, social, environmental, and institutional sustainability dimensions. However, at least in the case of developing countries, the potential exists that national sustainability measures, based on national level indicators, may mask problems in sub-national zones with highly unsustainable conditions. This paper proposes a methodology to evaluate sustainable development at a local level, the use of which could be helpful in comparing different regions within a country or even among different countries. National sustainability indicators should result from a combination (whether additive or proportional) of regional sustainability indicators, as developed in this paper.