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1.
Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), which aims to identify and assess potential failure modes in a system, has been widely utilized in diverse areas for improving and enhancing the performance of systems due to it is a powerful and useful risk and reliability assessment instrument. However, the conventional FMEA approach has been suffered several criticisms for it has some shortcomings, such as unable to handle ambiguous and uncertain information, neglect the relative weights of risk criteria, and without considering the psychological behaviors of decision-makers. To ameliorate these limitations, this paper aims at establishing a hybrid risk ranking model of FMEA via combing linguistic neutrosophic numbers, regret theory, and PROMETHEE (Preference ranking organization method for enrichment evaluation) approach. In the presented model, linguistic neutrosophic numbers are adopted to capture decision-makers’ evaluation regarding the failure modes on each risk criterion. A modified PROMETHEE approach based on regret theory is presented to obtain the risk priority of failure modes considering the psychological behaviors of decision-makers. Moreover, a maximizing deviation model and TOPSIS (Technique for order preference similar to ideal solution) are separately applied to derive the weights of risk criteria and decision-makers. Finally, a numerical example relating to the supercritical water gasification system is employed to implement the presented method, and the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed model are validated by the results derived from a sensitivity and comparison analysis. 相似文献
2.
为保障污水处理厂正常运行,预防厂内设备发生故障,提出一种改进的故障模式与影响分析(FMEA)的风险评估模型。首先采用FMEA法识别污水厂设备故障模式,并结合毕达哥拉斯模糊集(PFS)刻画不确定评估信息;其次利用逐步权重评估比率分析法(SWARA)和最大偏差法计算主客观权重,通过博弈论组合权重计算3个风险因子的综合权重;然后采用多目标优化比率分析法(MOORA)对设备故障模式进行风险排序。最后以长春市Z污水厂设备故障风险评估为例,并将所提模型与传统FMEA、毕达哥拉斯模糊(PF)-优劣解距离法(TOPSIS)和PF-妥协折衷排序法(PF-VIKOR)等方法对比,验证该模型的有效性。结果表明:污水厂设备故障模式前3位是除砂机抽取的砂浆所含有机物过多、膜片脱落或破裂和大块异物进入水泵。 相似文献
3.
文章简要描述了一起消防气体灭火钢质气瓶爆炸事故,对爆炸气瓶进行了断口分析、金相试验和理化试验,并分析了事故的原因,提醒制造厂家规范制造工艺,对预防类似事故的发生具有一定的参考意义。 相似文献
4.
基于可能-概率测度转换的危险品运输风险分析 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
高清平 《中国安全科学学报》2011,21(3):90
为解决不确定环境下的风险分析问题,针对危险货物运输中风险参数具有不确定性、随机性和模糊性的特点,建立基于概率测度-可能性测度转换原则和模糊逻辑的危险货物运输风险分析方法.首先对具有模糊性的参数直接建立模糊数,对具有随机性的参数建立随机数;接着依据概率测度向可能性测度转换的最优原则,将随机数转换为模糊数;然后根据模糊运算法则进行风险计算和分析.最后通过一个算例验证了模型和算法的有效性.结果表明,提出的方法能处理随机和模糊环境下的风险分析问题,能为风险分析尽可能多地保留不确定性信息,尽可能少地丢失有用信息. 相似文献
5.
IntroductionWith the development of industries and increased diversity of their associated hazards, the importance of identifying these hazards and controlling the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) risks has also dramatically augmented. Currently, there is a serious need for a risk management system to identify and prioritize risks with the aim of providing corrective/preventive measures to minimize the negative consequences of OHS risks. In fact, this system can help the protection of employees’ health and reduction of organizational costs. Method: The present study proposes a hybrid decision-making approach based on the Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA), Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM), and Multi-Objective Optimization on the basis of Ratio Analysis (MOORA) for assessing and prioritizing OHS risks. After identifying the risks and determining the values of the risk assessment criteria via the FMEA technique, the attempt is made to determine the weights of criteria based on their causal relationships through FCM and the hybrid learning algorithm. Then, the risk prioritization is carried out using the MOORA method based on the decision matrix (the output of the FMEA) and the weights of the criteria (the output of the FCM). Results: The results from the implementation of the proposed approach in a manufacturing company reveal that the score at issue can overcome some of the drawbacks of the traditional Risk Priority Number (RPN) in the conventional FMEA, including lack of assignment the different relative importance to the assessment criteria, inability to take into account other important management criteria, lack of consideration of causal relationships among criteria, and high dependence of the prioritization on the experts’ opinions, which finally provides a full and distinct risk prioritization. 相似文献
6.
为研究新能源汽车燃爆问题,采用模糊故障模式与影响分析(FFMEA)法对新能源汽车燃爆事故风险和防控对策开展研究。根据我国新能源汽车燃爆事件的统计数据,分析其致因机制,并将新能源汽车划分为整车控制系统、驱动电机系统、辅助系统、电源系统和基础设施系统等5个子系统,对其开展FFMEA分析;最后基于分析结果提出针对性防控对策。结果表明:电源系统是最大的风险源,其次是基础设施系统,电池组短路、电芯热失控和充电桩无过载、短路保护等故障为风险较大的故障模式;提出优化电池结构、安装碰撞自动切断电力传感器、建设过充故障检测装置等防控对策。 相似文献
7.
The complexity of the processes and the nature of volatile petroleum products urged the oil and gas industry to utilize various risk assessment techniques to identify potential failure modes that can interrupt operation processes. Consequently, government agencies and nonprofit professional societies guide the industry with regulatory guidelines, standards, and best recommended practices to oversee the operations management, assure safe working environment, and contain failures within tolerable limits. Yet, accidents due to electro-mechanical failures still occur and result in various consequences. Accordingly, critics have raised concerns about the petroleum industry's safety and risk mitigation credentials and question its ability to prevent future major accidents. Therefore, new risk assessment tools need to be introduced to provide decision makers and novice engineers with a diverse perception of potential risks. The aim of this paper is verify the application of Risk in Early Design (RED), a product risk assessment tool, in identifying potential failures in the oil and gas industry. Approximately thirty major accident underwent the RED analysis to verify the software's application to identify and rank potential failure modes. 相似文献
8.
工艺危害分析强调运用系统的方法对危害进行辨识、分析,并采取必要的措施消除和减少危害。HAZOP分析能对工艺过程非常系统、全面的进行分析,但传统的HAZOP分析在量化风险时,对于偏差原因发生的可能性评价存在较大的主观性。本文对于没有统计资料的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生可能性,采用专家打分法,利用三角模糊数来表示其模糊发生概率。对于有统计资料的偏差原因,直接表示成三角模糊数。这种方法能够很好的表示HAZOP分析偏差发生概率。介绍了基于三角模糊数的HAZOP分析步骤,并在石油化工装置中进行了应用。这对HAZOP分析技术在石油化工装置中的推广具有重要意义。 相似文献
9.
基于模糊数学的石油化工装置HAZOP风险分析技术研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
对传统的HAZOP分析中偏差原因发生可能性进行量化。对于有统计数据的,根据行业数据、公司经验及企业事故建立HAZOP风险分析统计数据库;对于没有统计数据的HAZOP分析偏差原因发生概率,通过专家主观评判,用模糊数理论将专家自然语言转换为模糊数,采用左右模糊排序法将模糊数转换为模糊失效概率值。研究了偏差后果严重程度的划分标准,并根据偏差原因概率和偏差后果严重程度确定风险等级,利用风险矩阵得出偏差风险的大小。从而把HAZOP分析方法从定性改进为半定量的分析方法。据此对石油化工装置进行了HAZOP风险分析。 相似文献
10.
为分析海底管道运行中存在的泄漏风险,提出1种基于毕达哥拉斯模糊数与贝叶斯网络的风险评估模型。首先,通过毕达哥拉斯模糊数转换专家定性评价,拓展专家意见模糊范围;然后,结合主客观组合赋权法,利用毕达哥拉斯梯形爱因斯坦混合几何算子（PTFEHG）实现专家意见的聚合;最后,通过贝叶斯网络的推理与敏感性分析,计算海底管道泄漏风险的失效概率,并辨识关键风险因素。研究结果表明:该方法可以结合专家意见对海底管道泄漏风险进行定量分析,并识别导致泄漏事故的关键风险因素,对海底管道安全管理具有指导意义。 相似文献
11.
Hamid Reza Seifi Azad Mard Ali Estiri Parinaz Hadadi Mahshid Seifi Azad Mard 《International journal of occupational safety and ergonomics》2013,19(4):570-577
Occupational accidents in the construction industry are more common compared with other fields and these accidents are more severe compared with the global average in developing countries, especially in Iran. Studies which lead to the source of these accidents and suggest solutions for them are therefore valuable. In this study a combination of the failure mode and effects analysis method and fuzzy theory is used as a semi-qualitative–quantitative method for analyzing risks and failure modes. The main causes of occupational accidents in this field were identified and analyzed based on three factors; severity, detection and occurrence. Based on whether the risks are high or low priority, modifying actions were suggested to reduce the occupational risks. Finally, the results showed that high priority risks had a 40% decrease due to these actions. 相似文献
12.
Risk priority number (RPN) is a commonly-used prioritization method in failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) for systemic reliability and safety study. However, conventional RPN confronts wide criticisms, due to the neglect of the uncertainties of experts' opinions. It is important to handle the conflicts among experts' multi-opinions which could be described in imprecise, incomplete or crisp forms in lack of knowledge. In this paper, a novel method is proposed to alleviate and/or eliminate counter-intuitive behaviors against conflicts among multi-opinions under Dempster-Shafer theory. Firstly, the abnormity test for experts’ opinions is undertaken to identify and discard those distinct judgments. Then, an approach to determining the subjective weights of experts is proposed, which is used in weighted average for multi-opinions before calculating RPNs. Finally, the risk priority evaluation on main engine crankcase explosion failure on-board ship is implemented to verify the feasibility of the proposed approach. 相似文献
13.
A method is presented for analysis of reliability of complex engineering systems using information from fault tree analysis and uncertainty/imprecision of data. Fuzzy logic is a mathematical tool to model inaccuracy and uncertainty of the real world and human thinking. The method can address subjective, qualitative, and quantitative uncertainties involving risk analysis. Risk analysis with all the inherent uncertainties is a prime candidate for Fuzzy Logic application. Fuzzy logic combined with expert elicitation is employed in order to deal with vagueness of the data, to effectively generate basic event failure probabilities without reliance on quantitative historical failure data through qualitative data processing.The proposed model is able to quantify the fault tree of LPG refuelling facility in the absence or existence of data. This paper also illustrates the use of importance measures in sensitivity analysis. The result demonstrates that the approach is an apposite for the probabilistic reliability approach when quantitative historical failure data are unavailable. The research results can help professionals to decide whether and where to take preventive or corrective actions and help informed decision-making in the risk management process. 相似文献
14.
为提升中国列车运行控制系统-3(CTCS-3)的可靠性,建立一个种新的基于失效模式与影响分析(FMEA)与消去与转换法-III(ELECTRE-III)的风险评估模型。首先利用直觉模糊数(IFNs)刻画不确定评估信息,利用ELECTRE-III构造不同潜在失效模式(PFMs)间的级别高于关系,进而将PFMs的风险水平排序;然后进行案例分析,并与传统FMEA方法、加权平均集结算子、多准则妥协解排序法(VIKOR)、逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)等方法对比。结果表明:基于FMEA与ELECTRE-III的CTCS-3的安全评估模型的稳健性较强,并能有效克服指标间异质性的影响。 相似文献
15.
矿用重型汽车作业现场碰撞事故模糊故障树分析 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：2
矿用重型汽车作业现场碰撞事故属于安全生产重大事故,本文根据现场的事故案例运用事故树分析方法,解析出69个导致碰撞事故发生的最小割集。借助于故障树结构重要度,找出对运输碰撞事故系统里底事件中的主要诱发因素,识别出系统关键节点的危险性,寻求预防同类碰撞事故发生的各种有效措施。由于构成割集的底事件本身就带就有一定的模糊性,所以运用模糊数学方法克服了传统的故障树分析方法中确定底事件发生概率的困难,为解决故障树种的模糊性问题提供了一种研究思路,在管理资源有限的条件下,为矿用重型汽车运行安全评价和安全管理提供可靠的保障。 相似文献
16.
为了探求一氧化碳与水蒸汽参与瓦斯爆炸的化学反应动力学过程的阻尼效应,建立了受限空间中瓦斯爆炸反应的数学模型。数值计算结果表明,结果表明在瓦斯爆炸过程中,瓦斯-空气混合气体含有10%的一氧化碳,虽然会延迟瓦斯爆炸时间,抑制瓦斯爆炸,但是H、O自由基浓度、瓦斯爆炸温度和压力比不加入一氧化碳时升高,同时对CO2、NO的生成起促进作用;当混合气体中含有10%的水蒸汽时,H、O自由基浓度降低,瓦斯爆炸温度和压力也随之降低,致灾性气体CO2、NO的生成得到抑制。虽然一氧化碳对瓦斯爆炸有一定的阻尼效应,但是由于一氧化碳对部分致灾性气体的生成有促进作用,因此,在阻尼瓦斯爆炸方面,水蒸汽的效果要好于一氧化碳。 相似文献
17.
在低温储罐定期检验中,发现储罐底部一个三通切换阀管件上存在多处裂纹及泄漏现象。通过对失效件进行宏观检验、化学成分、电镜扫描、金相组织、腐蚀产物能谱、非金属夹杂物含量、显微硬度等进行测试,结果表明：管件材质低于设计要求,管件承受载荷及应力作用,存在CI-等奥氏体不锈钢腐蚀敏感介质,造成该处奥氏体不锈钢管件应力腐蚀失效。 相似文献
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19.
Fire accidents of chemical installations may cause domino effects in atmospheric tank farms, where a large amount of hazardous substances are stored or processed. Pool fire is a major form of fire accidents, and the thermal radiation from pool fire is the primary hazard of domino accidents. The coupling of multiple pool fires is a realistic and important accident phenomenon that enhances the propagation of domino accidents. However, previous research has mostly focused on the escalation of domino accidents induced by a single pool fire. To overcome the drawback, in this study, the failure of a storage tank under the coupling effect of multiple pool fires was studied in view of spatial and temporal synergistic process. The historical accident statistics indicated that the accident scenario of two-pool fires accounted for 30.6% in pool fires. The domino accident scenario involving three tanks is analyzed, and the typical layout of tanks is isosceles right triangle based on Chinese standard “GB50341-2014”. The thermal response and damage of a target tank heated by pool fires were numerically investigated. The volume of 500 m3, 3000 m3, 5000 m3 and 10000 m3 were selected. Flame temperature was obtained by FDS, and then was input onto the finite element model. The temperature field and stress field of target tanks were simulated by ABAQUS. The results showed that the temperature rise rate of the target tanks under multiple pool fires was higher than that under a single pool fire. The failure time of the tank under the coupling effect of multiple fires was lower than that under the superposition of multiple fires without the first stage. The stress and yield strength were compared to judge the failure of the target tank. The model of failure time for the tank under the coupling effect of pool fires was established. Through the verification, the deviation of this model is 4.02%, which is better than the deviation of 15.76% with Cozzani's model. 相似文献
20.
K. -H. Oh H. Kim J. -B. Kim S. -E. Lee 《Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries》2001,14(6):597-602
A study on the variation of the gas explosion characteristics caused by the built-in obstacles was conducted in enclosed/vented gas explosion vessels. It has been well known that the obstacles in pipes and long ducts would accelerate the flame propagation, and cause the transition from deflagration to detonation. In this study, the explosion characteristics and the flame behavior of vented explosions and constant-volume explosions were investigated. Experiments were carried out in a 270-liter and 36-liter hexahedron vessels filled with LPG–air mixture. The explosion characteristics of the gas mixture were determined by using a strain-responding pressure transducer. The flame behavior was recorded by using a high-speed video camera. The shape and the size of the obstacle, and the gas concentration, were adjusted in the experiments.
It can be seen from the experimental results that, instead of being accelerated, the flame propagation inside the explosion vessel is decelerated by the plate obstacles fixed at the bottom of the vessel. Also, the characteristics of the enclosed explosion are not so affected by the built-in obstacles as those of the vented explosion are. It is believed that the eddy-induced turbulence behind the obstacle decelerates the flame propagation. 相似文献