Implementing inherent safety throughout process lifecycle

Inherent safety should be implemented as early as possible in the design life cycle, since the changes in process design are easier and cheaper the earlier they are done. The problem is, how to evaluate process alternatives in the terms of inherent safety in the early design phases, when much of the information is missing. In this paper the process life cycle phases and the possibilities of implementing and evaluating inherent safety are discussed. The applicability and accuracy of an inherent safety index method is presented by a case study.     

Setting optimal operating conditions for a catalytic reactor for butane oxidation using parametric sensitivity analysis and failure probability indices

Safe operation of a catalytic reactor remains a sensitive issue when highly exothermic reactions are conducted and hazardous side reactions may occur. Derivation of the optimal operating conditions must include economic but also safety criteria, technological constraints, beside controllability and stability aspects. The present work introduces a criterion based on a joint failure probability index related to uncertainty in the runaway boundaries and the random disturbances of the operating parameters. The use of such a safety criterion is even more important when setting the optimal operating policy of the reactor in the vicinity of the runaway boundaries that often correspond to a high productivity. The paper indicates how an economically efficient but more prudent operating policy can be selected, by simultaneously considering the economic and safety objectives. An example is provided for the case of an industrial fixed-bed tubular reactor, of high thermal sensitivity, used for the catalytic oxidation of butane to maleic anhydride in vapour phase. The multi-objective optimization can lead to a prudent trade-off operating solution (corresponding to a failure probability of maximum 3–4%) that limits the reactor productivity. Being based on a local and global sensitivity analysis of the reactor, the proposed rule is generally applicable by minimizing the probability with which control variables violate their safety limits.     

化工过程开发中本质安全化设计策略

本质安全化设计是预防人为失误及设备失效、降低化工过程风险应优先采用的技术。在比较传统设计方法与本质安全化设计方法的基础上,讨论了化工过程开发各阶段实现本质安全的机会,认为在开发初期,实施本质安全化的成本低,难度小;通过分析可行性研究、工艺研究、概念设计、基础设计、工程设计等阶段本质安全化设计的影响因素、设计目标和设计方法,探索化工过程开发中本质安全化设计策略,提出了化工过程本质安全化设计流程。通过工艺过程本质安全设计、工艺流程的简化和优化、不同设计方案的本质安全度评估等措施,可提高化工过程本质安全水平。     

The role of risk avoidance and locus of control in workers’ near miss experiences: Implications for improving safety management systems

The process industry has made major advancements and is a leader in near-miss safety management, with several validated models and databases to track close call reports. However, organizational efforts to develop safe work procedures and rules do not guarantee that employees will behaviorally comply with them. Assuming that at some point, every safety management system will need to be examined and realigned to help prevent incidents on the job, it is important to understand how personality traits can impact workers' risk-based decisions. Such work has been done in the mining industry due to its characteristically high risks and the results can be gleaned to help the process industry realign goals and values with their workforce. In the current study, researchers cross-sectionally surveyed 1,334 miners from 20 mine sites across the United States, varying in size and commodity. The survey sought to understand how mineworkers' risk avoidance could impact their near miss incidents on the job – a common precursor to lost-time incidents. Multiple regressions showed that as a miner's level of risk avoidance increased by 1 unit in the 6-point response scale, the probability of experiencing a near miss significantly decreased by 30% when adjusting for relevant control variables. Additionally, a significant interaction between risk avoidance and locus of control suggested that the effect of risk avoidance on near misses is enhanced as a miner's locus of control increases. A one-unit increase in locus of control appends the base effect of risk avoidance on near misses with an additional 8% decrease in the probability. Findings are discussed from a near-miss safety management system perspective in terms of methods to foster both risk avoidance and locus of control in an effort to reduce the probability of near misses and lost time at the organizational level within the process industry and other high-hazard industries.     

Inherent risk assessment methodology in preliminary design stage: A case study for toxic release

At preliminary design stage, process designers normally lack of information on the risk level from process plant. An inherently safer process plant could be designed if the information of risk levels could be known earlier at the preliminary design stage. If the risk level could be determined, there is a possibility to eliminate or reduce the risk by applying the well-known concept: inherent safety principle. This paper presents a technique to determine the risk levels at preliminary process design stage using a 2-region risk matrix concept. A model to calculate the severity and likelihood of a toxic release accident was developed in Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. This model is integrated with process design simulator, iCON to allow for data transfer during preliminary design stage. 2-region risk matrix is proposed and used to evaluate the acceptability of the inherent risk based on the severity and likelihood rating. If the inherent risk level is unacceptable, modification for improvement can be done using the inherent safety principles. A case study has been carried out to illustrate the benefit of applying this newly developed technique. It was successfully shown that an inherently safer plant could easily be designed by applying this technique.     

Quantification of inherent safety aspects of the Dow indices

The Dow fire and explosion index (F&EI) and chemical exposure index (CEI) have been successfully implemented in a Visual Basic environment as a tool for the inherent safety assessment of chemical processes. Subprograms were developed to quantify the inherent safety aspects of the Dow indices. These aspects are presented graphically with the indices on the vertical axis and an inherent safety indicator on the horizontal axis. Dow indices of the MIC storage unit involved in the Bhopal disaster were evaluated to quantify the effects of process temperature, pressure and inventory of hazardous materials on the index values.

As operating pressure was reduced, the F&EI decreased in accordance with the principles of inherent safety. The change in F&EI due to reduction of inventory was more significant than that resulting from pressure reduction. The results show that the F&EI change, given the same range of the independent variables (quantity of hazardous materials, operating temperature and pressure), is larger when a unit in the process area is evaluated compared to a unit in a storage area (tank farm). Reduction of the inventory of hazardous materials had no direct effect on the CEI for vapor releases, whereas the size of the hole diameter impacted the CEI to a great extent. However, there is a significant change in the CEI as the inventory of materials decreases for liquid releases involving temperatures above their flash and boiling points. Pressure reduction decreases the CEI, whereas temperature reduction leads to an increase in the CEI when these parameters are treated independently.     

基于模糊识别的建筑物火灾危险性评价方法

笔者以传统的经典统计和模糊统计为基础 ,依据建筑物火灾危险性的影响因素 ,应用模糊识别理论及系统安全方法 ,建立了建筑物火灾危险性的评价指标体系 ;并应用集值统计方法对各项指标权重进行了处理。该方法改变了过去统计给出一个固定值的做法 ,而给出一个区间值 ,解决了对专家给出的指标“大约是多少”这一概念的定量化。为了验证了评价模型的准确性 ,将该理论应用到某购物商场火灾危险性评价中 ,取得了满意效果 ,为建筑物防火设计以及安全管理提供了可行的依据。     

Using process stream index (PSI) to assess inherent safety level during preliminary design stage

In the current practice, safety assessment is conducted once the process design has been completed. At this stage of design, the freedom to change the conceptual design is very limited and whatever strategies to be implemented will only control the hazard. This paper reports on the development of inherent safety index known as a process stream index (PSI) for inherent safety level assessment at preliminary design stage from the perspective of an explosion. The aim for PSI is to calculate, compare and prioritize the level of inherent safety of process streams during simulation work that influences the explosion. By prioritizing the streams based on the potential for the explosion, the design engineers can easily identify the critical streams to be considered for improvement in order to avoid or minimize explosion hazards. An enhancement technique to reflect the contribution of the individual components in the mixture is introduced, which provide significant contribution to the ranking of inherent safety level of process streams. The assessment of inherent safety level using PSI is demonstrated by case studies of HYSYS simulation for Acrylic Acid Plant and Natural Gas Liquid (NGL) plant.     

复杂气井套管力学分析与可靠度评价

为建立考虑地层和套管参数随机性的套管可靠度评价理论方法,以便得到复杂井况下套管传统设计安全系数与可靠指标之间的关系,提出了非均匀地应力和内压联合作用下,沿套管最大外挤力方向管壁任意位置发生屈服失效时外壁等效均匀外挤力的计算方法;建立了套管抗挤和抗内压三轴强度计算公式以及有效内压计算方法;根据套管载荷和强度影响因素统计参数以及评价过程中参数测试标准值,利用蒙特卡洛法（MC）建立了完整的套管可靠度计算和评价方法;通过实例对传统安全系数与可靠指标的对应关系进行了研究。研究结果表明:指定条件下,套管安全系数与可靠指标之间存在对应关系;利用建立的方法编制计算程序可以为传统设计法中安全系数代表的安全程度进行量化;可靠度评价方法能够为安全系数的选取提供指导。     

Variability of operating safety limits with catalyst within a fixed-bed catalytic reactor for vapour-phase nitrobenzene hydrogenation

The safety in operation of a fixed-bed catalytic reactor remains a sensitive issue when a highly exothermic reaction is conducted and various process development elements such as controllability, stability, risk, and economic aspects are considered. Several model-based methods are used to estimate the safe operating region limits. Nominal conditions are set to limit the hot spot in the tubular reactor and avoid excessive thermal sensitivity to variations in the process parameters. When the catalyst or its characteristics are changed, the operating conditions have to be adjusted accordingly. The safety problem becomes more important when the production optimization requires setting the nominal operating point in the vicinity of the safety limits. This paper investigates the advantages as well as the precautions that need to be taken when using a more sophisticated model-based global sensitivity criterion (MV of Morbidelli & Varma) to routinely update the runaway critical conditions when changes in the investigated system frequently occur. A concrete example is provided for the case of an industrial fixed-bed catalytic reactor for nitrobenzene hydrogenation in vapour-phase. The analysis points out the discrepancies in predicting the runaway boundaries for complex processes between precise sensitivity-based MV-method and shortcut methods, and the importance of accounting for parameter uncertainty for both evaluation of the confidence region around the runaway boundaries and for the optimal set-point location. The close connection between the operating risk limits and the process kinetics is also highlighted even if the reactor geometry and the main flow conditions are kept unchanged.     

金属矿山员工风险认知与安全行为的关系*

为探索金属矿山员工风险认知与安全行为之间的关系,选取金属矿山冒顶坍塌、中毒窒息和车辆伤害3类常见风险,从风险特征维度的视角提出研究假设。通过设计风险认知与安全行为量表开展调查,并对调查所获的397份问卷进行统计分析,利用相关分析、回归分析和中介效应对研究假设进行检验。研究结果表明:员工风险认知对安全行为有显著正向影响作用;风险熟悉度与员工风险认知存在显著正向关系,可用于表征员工风险认知;风险熟悉度对安全行为具有显著正向影响作用,且风险认知在这一过程中起部分中介作用;风险可控性和恐惧性在风险认知对安全行为作用过程中分别起负向调节和正向调节作用;风险自愿性仅对安全行为有直接的负向作用。     

化学放热系统热爆炸潜在危险性评价

讨论化学放热系统的热稳定性和临界条件,用化学反应物无消耗的假设推导化学放热系统热失控(热爆炸)时的动力学参数临界值,得到热失控的判据、临界点火温度和熄火温度。提出用系统安全指数概念来评价放热反应系统发生热爆炸的潜在危险性,分析化学放热系统的平衡域。用硝酸甲酯分解爆炸实例,说明如何利用安全指数对具有热爆炸可能性的系统的潜在危险性进行定量评价,其预测结果与实验结果一致。     

Decision analysis on fire safety design based on evaluating building fire risk to life

This study presents a framework of decision analysis on fire safety design alternatives based on evaluating building fire risk to life. A probabilistic risk assessment method for occupant life is presented with consideration of some uncertainties of evacuation process and fire development at first. For occupant evacuation time assessment, occupant pre-movement time is characterized by normal distribution. For onset time to untenable conditions assessment, its uncertainty is considered as probability distribution according to the range of design fires. Based on event tree technique, probable fire scenarios are analyzed with consideration of the effect of fire protection systems, employees extinguishing, etc. It is difficult to make a precise assessment on probability and consequence of every fire scenario, but their lower bound and upper bound can be achieved based on statistical data. Therefore, Supersoft Decision Theory [Malmnäs, P.E., 1995. Methods of Evaluation in Supersoft Decision Theory. Department of Philosophy, Stockholm University, 365 Stockholm; Johansson, H., Malmnäs, P.E., 2000. Application of supersoft decision theory in fire risk assessment. Journal of Fire Protection Engineering 14, 55–84] that allows decision maker to utilize vague statement is utilized to integrate with risk assessment to make decision on different fire safety design alternatives. To express how to make decision on different fire safety design alternatives based on evaluating building fire risk to life, two hypothetical fire safety design alternatives for a commercial building are presented.     

基于模糊综合评价的化工工艺本质安全指数研究

建立化工工艺的本质安全评价指标体系,包括可燃性、爆炸性、毒性、反应性、温度、压力、储量等7个指标。为解决前人指数法中的边界波动效应,采用模糊综合评价建立化工工艺本质安全评价指数模型,确定各指标的权重、危险分级及对各分级的隶属函数。以甲基丙烯酸甲酯的5条工艺路线为例进行分析,结论与前人提出的指数方法的评价结果相吻合,表明该指数方法可以用来进行化工工艺的本质安全评价,以指导设计初期的本质安全型工艺路线选择。     

事故隐患两阶段风险评价方法的研究

以事故隐患为研究对象,对当前各类事故隐患评价方法进行研讨,指出在事故隐患风险评价中存在的4个问题;提出把事故隐患风险评价分为事故隐患形成过程和事故隐患发展过程两个阶段进行;引入事故隐患可控性、事故隐患危害性等评价指标,建立新的评价指标体系,从而更为准确地评价事故隐患的风险性。将该评价方法在交通建设行业中应用,依据行业特征,将交通建设行业事故隐患分为5个风险等级。     

基于灰色关联度的集对分析方法在高层建筑火灾危险性评价中的应用

为了对某钢管厂高层建筑进行火灾风险评估,基于高层建筑的防火、灭火设计要求,从防火系统、灭火系统、安全疏散和消防安全管理四个方面构建了高层建筑火灾危险性指标评价体系,并运用层次分析法确定了各火灾危险性影响因子的权重。根据集对分析的联系度模型对高层建筑进行火灾危险性评估,确定其安全等级。结合灰色关联度理论对差异度与同一度、对立度两组数据进行计算比较,选取绝对关联度大的值作为差异度系数i的值,从而可以确定各组联系度的值。根据联系度最大值所属的安全等级,确定了高层建筑的火灾危险等级为一般安全,结果与实际情况相符。     

基于粗糙集Skowron差别矩阵的矿井火灾风险评价指标约简

在安全评价过程中,当构建的指标体系过于庞大,数据繁琐,不利于进行安全评价工作。为了对矿井火灾风险评价指标体系进行快速简化,基于粗糙集理论属性约简功能,采用理论与实例分析相结合的方法,利用Skowron差别矩阵算法对矿井火灾风险评价决策表进行属性约简。研究表明:通过约简,矿井火灾风险评价指标由原来的16个缩减为6个,大大减少了后续评价过程中权重确定的计算量,降低了评价的复杂程度,减少了评估工作量。同时约简结果也为矿井火灾防治工作提供了一些指导意见,体现了差别矩阵在决策表的属性约简中的高效性。     

Occupational injury rates among Norwegian farmers: A sociotechnical perspective

Introduction: This study addressed relative injury risk among Norwegian farmers, who are mostly self-employed and run small farm enterprises. The aim was to explore the relative importance of individual, enterprise, and work environment risks for occupational injury and to discuss the latent conditions for injuries using sociotechnical system theory. Method: Injury report and risk factors were collected through a survey among Norwegian farm owners in November 2012. The response rate was 40% (n = 2,967). Annual work hours were used to calculate injury rates within groups. Poisson regression using the log of hours worked as the offset variable allowed for the modeling of adjusted rate ratios for variables predictive of injury risk. Finally, safety climate measures were introduced to assess potential moderating effects on risk. Results: Results showed that the most important risk factors for injuries were the design of the workplace, type of production, and off-farm work hours. The main results remained unchanged when adding safety climate measures, but the measures moderated the injury risk for categories of predominant production and increased the risk for farmers working with family members and/or employees. An overall finding is how the risk factors were interrelated. Conclusions: The study identified large structural diversities within and between groups of farmers. The study drew attention to operating conditions rather than individual characteristics. The farmer’s role (managerial responsibility) versus regulation and safety climate is important for discussions of injury risk. Practical Applications: We need to study sub-groups to understand how regulation and structural changes affect work conditions and management within different work systems, conditioned by production. It is important to encourage actors in the political-economic system to become involved in issues that were found to affect the safety of farmers.     

基于改进云模型-IAHP的涉爆粉尘企业安全风险评估

为了评估涉爆粉尘企业安全风险,克服传统评估过程中数据随机性和模糊性的缺陷,建立了基于云理论和区间层次分析法(IAHP)的涉爆粉尘企业安全风险评估模型。针对粉尘爆炸事故的特点构建涉爆粉尘企业安全风险指标体系,使用云理论为主客观指标赋值,采用IAHP确定各指标权重并引入可能度修正权重结果,基于改进的云合并算法整合计算结果,以综合评估企业粉尘爆炸风险,并将该模型应用于某金属加工企业。研究结果表明:该企业的粉尘爆炸风险处于一般水平,其工人安全意识薄弱、防尘及防爆措施不完善、生产布局和管理不规范等原因导致了该企业的风险,该模型评估结果与实际情况相符,为提高企业安全管理水平提供依据。     

基于ART-2人工神经网络的煤矿安全风险评价

旨在为煤矿安全风险预控管理提供一种适用的风险评价模型或方法。研究过程中,介绍了人工神经网络自适应共振理论的ART-2算法;在安全系统工程理论及相关研究基础上,结合调研分析建立了风险评价指标体系;选取山西9家煤矿作为研究样本进行实证研究。该算法仿真识别结果与煤矿实际安全风险情况一致性程度达到77.78%,表明针对煤矿安全风险预控管理过程中的安全风险评价,ART-2神经网络具有较好的适用性。