A novel approach combining bootstrapped non-intrusive reduced order models and unscented transform for the robust and efficient CFD analysis of accidental gas releases in congested plants

The risk assessment for safety-critical, complex systems is a very challenging computational problem when it is performed with high-fidelity models, e.g. CFD, like in the case of accidental gas releases in congested systems. Within this framework, a novel CFD approach, named Source Box Accident Model, has been recently proposed to efficiently model such phenomena by splitting the simulation of the gas release and its subsequent dispersion in the system in two steps. In this view, the present paper proposes a non-intrusive, Proper Orthogonal Decomposition-Radial Basis Functions reduced order model that exploits the two-step nature of the SBAM approach, to mimic the behaviour of the original, long-running CFD model code at a significantly lower computational cost. Moreover, the paper presents a methodology combining the bootstrap and unscented transform approaches to efficiently assess the ROM uncertainty in the safety-critical simulation output quantities of interest, e.g. the flammable volume. The results obtained in a test case involving a high pressure, accidental gas release in an off-shore Oil & Gas plant are in very satisfactory agreement with those produced by CFD, with a relative error smaller than 10% and a reduction in the computational time of about three orders of magnitude.     

Application of Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Network in explosion risk analysis of fixed offshore platform

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) is routinely used in Explosion Risk Analysis (ERA), as CFD-based ERA offers a good understanding of underlying physics accidental loads. Generally, simplifications were incorporated into CFD-based ERA to limit the number of simulations. Frozen Cloud Approach (FCA) is a frequently used simplification in the dispersion part of the CFD-based ERA procedure. However, its accuracy is questionable in the complex and congested environment such as offshore facility. Furthermore, in explosion part, some specific techniques, e.g. linear/double bin-interpolated techniques have been proposed while the corresponding accuracy is still unknown since the developers did not yet check their accuracy by considering the explosion computational data as the benchmark.This study presents a more accurate algorithm, namely Bayesian Regularization Artificial Neural Network (BRANN) and accordingly proposes the frameworks regarding BRANN-based models for the CFD-based ERA procedure. Firstly, the framework is proposed to develop the Transient-BRANN (TBRANN) model for transient dispersion study. In addition, the framework to determine the BRANN model for explosion study is developed. The proposed frameworks are explained by a case study of the fixed offshore platform. Consequently, this study confirms the more accuracy of the TBRANN model over FCA and the accuracy of BRANN model for CFD-based ERA.     

Application of CFD model in an LPG tank explosion accident

In this research, a 3D tank farm model of a petrochemical plant was built in order to analyze an LPG tank explosion accident. Furthermore, the Computational Fluid Dynamic (CFD) algorithm was also applied to reconstruct the scenario of the accident. With its 3D dynamic abilities, the CFD simulation results can be used to facilitate the understanding of the spatial and transient distribution of different hazardous physical variables, which cannot be observed from the traditional methods.After the maximum physical variables of overpressure, pressure-impulse, and thermal radiation temperature were calculated, the results were adopted to estimate the corresponding 3D individual risk value. With the aid of the CFD simulation and the analysis method of maximum physical variable, the researchers can use the simulation results to scrutinize the possible causes and consequences of a chemical accident.     

CFD-based assessment and visualization of the failure consequences of LPG tankers

This paper presents a simulation analysis of the explosions following an LPG leak and visualizes the consequences of the accident to reduce the consequences of the LPG leak explosion. Firstly, this paper proposes a CFD numerical simulation-based method for visualizing the consequences of LPG tanker failure. The method combines satellite maps and CFD numerical simulation data to visualize the consequences of LPG leaks and explosions, taking into account the influence of obstacles on the danger range of leaks and explosions; Secondly, this paper applies the method to a liquefied petroleum gas accident that occurred in the Wenling section of the Shenhai Expressway and performs CFD numerical simulation on the accident process and visualizes the consequences of the accident. Therefore, this method can provide a theoretical reference for the prior prevention of LPG accidents and the analysis of the consequences of accidents, as well as certain practical guidance instructive.     

岩鹰山隧道内天然气管道泄漏规律及通风方案研究

采用经典流体力学理论,以及计算流体力学（CFD）等方法相结合,对中缅油气 管线上具有代表性的岩鹰山隧道进行研究。用Fluent软件对岩鹰山隧道天然气管道泄漏 进行仿真模拟,利用Fluent模拟结果与泄漏源计算结果相结合,经过理论分析与数据拟 合,提出泄漏天然气充满隧道的时间计算模型,通过不同边界条件下隧道内天然气泄漏 扩散规律的模拟结果对时间模型进行验算并修正。利用计算流体力学（CFD）方法,研 究岩鹰山隧道在发生天然气泄漏事故后,单风机通风方案的效率,得出隧道通风优化方 案,方案内容包括最佳送风方式、布设水平位置、布设高度、布设间距。根据通风方案 计算结果对风机型号选取、以及隧道洞门设计提出了建议。     

An engineer-based methodology to perform Explosion Risk Analyses

Explosion Risk Analyses (ERA) are usually performed as part of the Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). The combination of frequencies and associated consequences allow to get a risk picture of the facility and provides decision support to the risk owner. The outcomes of this study allow also to provide, after adequate interpretation, Design Explosion Loads (DEL) to engineering disciplines (e.g. structures, piping and equipment) according to a given Risk Acceptance Criterion (RAC). For most of the offshore applications, the consequence part of the ERA is done with Computational Fluids Dynamics (CFD) to properly handle congestion and confinement effects as simple models cannot. With the increase of computational power, thanks to Moore's Law, there is an increasing trend to perform more and more CFD simulations with the expectation to improve confidence in results while taking more and more probabilistic variables into account. In the early 2000s, it was 10's of simulations, in the 2010s, it was 100's and now it is common to reach 1000's. However, one should remark that there is still a lot of uncertainties behind these studies since the geometry maturity is generally not enough especially at the early stage of detailed engineering when the preliminary Design Explosion Loads (pDEL) should be provided to disciplines. Anticipated congestion is normally put in the model, but it usually put a bias at the beginning of the consequence modelling part. In the risk-based approach, the frequency part is also of major importance. One need to keep in mind that consequence refinement should be done in close relation with the frequency refinement to ensure consistency in the approach. The practical methodology presented in this paper was developed to provide reliable inputs to engineering disciplines, taking into consideration uncertainties and potential spread of results while using a reasonable number of CFD scenarios. Finally, the safety engineers are still the key contributor in the performance of the ERA, and hence brain-based design is kept in the loop while minimizing computer-based design.     

CFD simulation of pool fires situated at differing elevation

When two or more pool fires happen to burn so close to each other that they interact, they are termed ‘multiple pool fires’ (MPF). Past accident analysis reveals that MPFs occur quite frequently in chemical process industries. Controlled experiments done so far to study MPFs have indicated that MPFs lead to increase in the fuel burning rate, flame height and heat release rate (HRR) but the nature and the extent of the impacts of different factors on these manifestations is as yet poorly understood. In this context computational fluid dynamics (CFD) appears to be a tool which can enable more detailed and realistic simulation of MPFs than other possible approaches, especially due to its ability to closely approximate the underlying physical phenomena. In tank farms there are situations where different storage tanks are placed at different elevations yet close to each other. If such tanks happen to catch fire, the resulting fires may influence each other in a manner that may be a function of the difference in the tanks’ elevation. However no CFD study has been carried out which addresses this type of situation. Hence an attempt has been made to employ CFD to study MPFs involving two pools with fuel surfaces are at different elevations. Results reveal that good correlation is possible between the experimental findings and the CFD simulations.     

Advanced multi-perspective computer simulation as a tool for reliable consequence analysis

Major accidents involving hazardous materials are a crucial issue for the chemical and process industries. Many accidental events taken place in the past showed that dangerous substances may pose a severe threat for people and property. Aiming at loss prevention, a series of actions have been instituted through international regulations concerning hazardous installations safety preparedness. These actions involve efficient land-use planning, safety studies execution, as well as emergency response planning drawing up. A key factor for the substantial consideration of the above is the effective prediction of possible accident forms and their consequences, for the estimation of which, a number of empirical models have been developed so far. However, (semi-)empirical models present certain deficiencies and obey to certain assumptions, thus leading to results of reduced accuracy. Another approach that could be used for this purpose and it is discussed in this work, is the utilization of advanced computational fluid dynamics (CFD) techniques in certain accident forms modeling. In particular, composite CFD-based models were developed for the simulation of several characteristic accident forms involving isothermal and non-isothermal heavy gas dispersion, confined and unconfined explosion in environment of complex geometry, as well as flammable cloud fire. The simulation cases were referred to real-scale trials allowing us to conclude about the validity of the quantitative results. Comparisons of the computational predictions with the experimental observations showed that obtained results were in good agreement with the experimental ones, whereas the evaluation of statistical performance measures proved the simulations to be statistically valid.     

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of heat radiation from large liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) pool fires

Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) is flammable and has risks of pool fires during its transportation, storage, and applications. The heat radiation by LPG pool fires poses hazards to individuals nearby and can lead to potential failures of ambient facilities. Due to the high costs and invasive nature of experiments for investigating large-scale pool fires, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is employed in this study as the cost-effective and noninvasive method to simulate the process and analyze the characteristics of large hydrocarbon pool fires. Specifically, an experimentally validated 3-D CFD model has been built to simulate surface emissive power (SEP) and incident radiation of large-scale LPG pool fires with three different diameters and wind speeds. Steady-state simulations with P1 radiation and probability density function (PDF) combustion models were employed to obtain reliable data after the optimizations based on the comparisons with experimental data and empirical models. The comparison with benchmark experimental data demonstrates that the CFD model employed in this study can accurately predict the incident radiation of large LPG pool fires. A new SEP correlation is also proposed, which is specifically for LPG pool fires with a diameter between 10 m and 20 m. Additionally, the safe separation distances between LPG facilities and surrounded objects have been estimated based on the CFD simulation results. The high-resolution CFD model for large LPG pool fires in this work provides noninvasive and direct quantitative evidence to enhance the fundamental understanding on the safety of large LPG pool fires and can assist regulatory agencies in refining the safety limits in the cost-effective and time-saving manners.     

障碍物地形条件下重气泄漏扩散实验的CFD模拟验证

重气泄漏扩散是一种危害性较大的多发事故,而一旦在人口密集区域发生泄漏事故,周围居民将处境危险。重气泄漏后一般沿地面扩散,而地形条件是影响其扩散行为的重要因素。本文利用计算流体力学方法(CFD)对Thorney Island Trial026实验条件进行了数值模拟,考察障碍物对气体扩散的影响并与实验结果进行对比。结果表明,模拟结果与实验数据的吻合性较好,证明CFD软件能够较准确地模拟障碍物地形条件下的重气扩散过程。     

大气土壤耦合的埋地燃气管道泄漏扩散数值分析

为了研究埋地燃气管道泄漏燃气在非稳态泄漏条件下的扩散行为,基于燃气管道非稳态泄漏大孔模型,应用CFD分别求解土壤和大气扩散方程,通过丙烷地面扩散通量耦合了土壤和大气环境,进行了泄漏扩散的数值模拟,所得模拟计算结果与地上泄漏扩散数值模拟结果进行了对比分析。研究结果表明:耦合模拟条件下,风速仍是影响丙烷扩散距离和高度的主要因素;温度和相对湿度对丙烷扩散有相对较小的影响;与埋地泄漏相比,不同条件下地上泄漏的扩散距离和扩散高度均有误差,水平扩散距离误差普遍较大,扩散高度个别情况下误差较大;地上泄漏条件下的模拟结果数值偏大,对事故的预测和评估准确性会产生显著影响。     

Learning from the application of nuclear probabilistic safety assessment to the chemical industry

This paper introduces the new approach of risk analysis established by the French Ministry of the Environment and develops the benefits of applying nuclear probabilistic safety assessment approaches to the chemical industry.In the aftermath of the AZF disaster in Toulouse on 21 September 2001, a new law was proposed by the French government asking for the investigation of all representative scenarios and the assessment of the probability of the resulting dangerous phenomena to demonstrate an acceptable level of safety. Therefore, any accident is investigated from a global point of view, according to its gravity and its probability.In 2000, the French Ministry of the Environment asked the Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety (IRSN), and in particular its Systems and Risk Protection Assessment (SESPRI) and its Industrial Risks, Fire and Containment Assessment and Study (SERIC) departments, to conduct a Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) study of an LPG distribution facility, specially for the BLEVE scenario. This study has showed the power of PSA for defining and prioritizing actions to be carried out to improve safety of facilities; however, it requires credible data for reliability and failure of the equipment, not available in generic failure databases.Since 2007, IRSN has taken several initiatives in collaboration with operators in order to provide more precise and representative failure rates for main safety equipment, ready to use in future PSA relative to LPG plants.     

基于CFD分析的呼吸防护面具罩体设计

分析呼吸防护面具研究领域在呼吸阻力方面的研究情况,提出基于计算流体力学分析的呼吸防护面具罩体设计方案,在设计过程中添加以计算流体力学分析为手段的有限元模拟仿真模块。通过ANSYS产品ICEM CFD与CFX对设计模型进行网格划分与流体分析,根据仿真结果对初步设计的模型进行结构优化再设计。     

LES – DFSD modelling of vented hydrogen explosions in a small-scale combustion chamber

Accidental explosions are a plausible danger to the chemical process industries. In the event of a gas explosion, any obstacles placed within the path of the flame generate turbulence, which accelerates the transient flame and raises explosion overpressure, posing a safety hazard. This paper presents numerical studies using an in-house computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model for lean premixed hydrogen/air flame propagations with an equivalence ratio of 0.7. A laboratory-scale combustion chamber is used with repeated solid obstacles. The transient compressible large eddy simulation (LES) modelling technique combined with a dynamic flame surface density (DFSD) combustion model is used to carry out the numerical simulations in three-dimensional space. The study presented uses eight different baffle configurations with two solid obstructions, which have area blockage ratios of 0.24 and 0.5. The flame speed, maximum rate of pressure-rise as well as peak overpressure magnitude and timing are presented and discussed. Numerical results are validated against available published experimental data. It is concluded that, increasing the solid obstacle area blockage ratio and the number of consecutive baffles results in a raised maximum rate of pressure rise, higher peak explosion overpressure and faster flame propagation. Future model development would require more experimental data, probably in a more congested configuration.     

Consequence analysis of an open fire incident in a pesticide storage plant

This paper deals with the consequence assessment of an open fire incident in a Pesticides Storage Facility. Consequences are mainly caused by the atmospheric dispersion of toxic substances produced during the fire and transported downwind to considerable distance. An integrated methodology, based on Computational fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques and the dimensionless buoyancy flux number, F/U³L, a parameter that can be associated with the flow characteristics, taking advantage of the dynamic similarity of the flow domain, is presented and used for the simulation of the plume dispersion.Rise to the present study gave a real incident, which happened in northern Greece in the beginning of 2004 and constituted the basis for the development of the accident scenarios eventually studied. Owing to the uncertainty in the estimation of source term strength and specifically of the magnitude of the heat released during the incident together with the variation in wind velocity, a parameterization of these two quantities has been applied. Four typical accident scenarios have been designed and studied.It is concluded that the proposed methodology allows for the calculation of the ground level concentration of any non-reactive substance dispersed in the atmosphere and constitutes a complementary approach in the consequence analysis of accidents in agrochemical (pesticides) plants.     

基于实验与仿真的三维水下气体泄漏预测与安全评估研究

水下气体羽流特性是海底气体泄漏风险评估的重要基础。为准确预测水下气体羽流行为,基于计算流体动力学(CFD)方法,建立1种考虑气体卷吸湍流特性的三维水下气体羽流数值预测模型;采用欧拉-欧拉流体体积模型捕捉气液作用界面,以大涡模拟(LES)方式预测羽流上浮及卷吸过程中的湍流特性,从而实现对水下气体羽流行为的预测;搭建小尺度实验平台,对比仿真与实验条件下的气体羽流形态,验证数值模型的可行性及预测精度;应用建立的数值模型对工程条件下的水下气体泄漏事故进行预测和评估,以某浅层气井喷事故为例,评估水下气体羽流上浮时间、海面影响范围和涌流高度。结果表明:基于欧拉多相流与大涡模拟的数值模型对水下气体羽流预测结果与实验具有较好的吻合度,该模型能够较好捕捉羽流的湍流特性,可为水下气体泄漏羽流行为评估提供参考。     

炼油厂环境风险评价的实践和思考

按照《建设项目环境风险评价导则》要求,对某炼油厂环境风险评价的部分内容进行了介绍,指出了炼油厂环境风险评价重大危险源、最大可信事故源等评价结果.同时就工作中存在的问题,从环境的观点出发,就石油炼制行业的环境风险评价分级,事故概率的确定,事故状态下采取水体风险防范措施后源强的确定,事故危害后果定量分析,预测模式的研究方向等方面提出了相应意见.     

公路隧道内CNG管束气瓶车泄漏天然气扩散CFD仿真

气体管束气瓶车是运输压缩天然气(Compressed Natural Gas, CNG)的重要工具,针对CNG管束气瓶车运输过程中在公路隧道内发生追尾导致泄漏问题,基于计算流体动力学CFD方法,建立CNG管束气瓶车遭追尾致泄漏后果预测与评估模型,对公路隧道内风场条件下泄漏天然气的扩散过程进行模拟与分析,研究CNG管束气瓶车泄漏天然气在隧道内的扩散规律和形成的危险区域范围。仿真结果表明:泄漏天然气扩散具有极速泄漏、外力作用、初期膨胀增长和稳定收缩等特征;喷射气云团能够覆盖肇事车辆前部,可能导致驾驶人员窒息或引发火灾、爆炸事故;实例工况下,泄漏气体扩散至稳态以后,形成爆炸极限浓度范围内的气云分布在肇事车辆前部1.5m至肇事车辆中部之间的区域;进行事故应急响应时,应封锁事故隧道,加强隧道内通风,在消防水枪的稀释掩护下对管束气瓶车进行堵漏作业。     

Review of the DESC project

Dust Explosion Simulation Code (DESC) was a project supported by the European Commission under the Fifth Framework Programme. The main purpose of the project was to develop a simulation tool based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) that could predict the potential consequences of industrial dust explosions in complex geometries. Partners in the DESC consortium performed experimental work on a wide range of topics related to dust explosions, including dust lifting by flow or shock waves, flame propagation in vertical pipes, dispersion-induced turbulence and flame propagation in closed vessels, dust explosions in closed and vented interconnected vessel systems, and measurements in real process plants. The new CFD code DESC is based on the existing CFD code FLame ACceleration Simulator (FLACS) for gas explosions. The modelling approach adopted in the first version entails the extraction of combustion parameters from pressure–time histories measured in standardized 20-l explosion vessels. The present paper summarizes the main experimental results obtained during the DESC project, with a view to their relevance regarding dust explosion modelling, and describes the modelling of flow and combustion in the first version of the DESC code. Capabilities and limitations of the code are discussed, both in light of its ability to reproduce experimental results, and as a practical tool in the field of dust explosion safety.     

起重机联轴器断裂事故仿真模拟

为了预防起重机事故发生,培养工科大学生的安全意识和安全思维,对起重机联轴器断裂事故进行仿真模拟。利用SolidWorks对起重机进行建模及装配,模型装配体另存为.wrl格式,导入3DS Max中进行仿真模拟动画制作,结果表明,可以再现起重机事故的发生过程。事故仿真模拟对事故原因分析以及起重机安全使用具有重要的指导意义。