A framework for resilience assessment in process systems using a fuzzy hybrid MCDM model

Resilience engineering (RE) has recently emerged as a novel safety management paradigm in socio-technical organizations. It is believed that RE is more compatible with the characteristics of complex socio-technical systems. The multicriteria nature and the presence of both qualitative and quantitative latent factors make RE substantially more complex especially in quantifying and modeling aspects. To address this issue, the present research aims to develop a fuzzy hybrid multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) model for quantifying and evaluating resilience using the fuzzy Analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) and fuzzy VIKOR (F-VIKOR) techniques. Initially, an evaluation framework including six resilience indicators and 43 sub-indicators was established. Afterward, the F-AHP method was used to determine the weight of the resilience indicators, while the F-VIKOR method was employed to rank the resilience performance of the different operational units. To present the model capability, we evaluated the resilience of a gas refinery as a typical instance of socio-technical systems. The findings revealed the performance level of resilience indicators in all units of the studied refinery and their ranking based on the computation of the index value (Qi). With respect to the Qi values, the best and worst performance of units from the resilience perspective was specified. Results indicate that the proposed model can serve as an effective evaluation approach in complicated systems and can be used to effectively design strategies to improve system safety performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that evaluates the resilience using the VIKOR and AHP in a fuzzy environment in the process industry.     

Risk-based maintenance (RBM): a quantitative approach for maintenance/inspection scheduling and planning

The overall objective of the maintenance process is to increase the profitability of the operation and optimize the total life cycle cost without compromising safety or environmental issues. Risk assessment integrates reliability with safety and environmental issues and therefore can be used as a decision tool for preventive maintenance planning. Maintenance planning based on risk analysis minimizes the probability of system failure and its consequences (related to safety, economic, and environment). It helps management in making correct decisions concerning investment in maintenance or related field. This will, in turn, result in better asset and capital utilization.

This paper presents a new methodology for risk-based maintenance. The proposed methodology is comprehensive and quantitative. It comprises three main modules: risk estimation module, risk evaluation module, and maintenance planning module. Details of the three modules are given. A case study, which exemplifies the use of methodology to a heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) system, is also discussed.     

Applications of resilience engineering principles in different fields with a focus on industrial systems: A literature review

This paper reviews literature that addresses applications of resilience engineering principles to various fields. Recently the concept has attracted great attention from a technical and industrial perspective. The primary focus of this paper is to review the resilience engineering applications to industrial systems with the purpose of applying them to the chemical industry. A systematic review is performed to classify peer-reviewed journal papers that are associated with resilience engineering applications into three categories: industrial systems, ecological systems, and interlinked systems. The literature in the category of industrial systems is further divided based on the type of approaches such as field studies, case studies, methodologies, and mathematical modeling. After thoroughly analyzing the literature, four key research areas are identified: Considering socio-technical factors for resilience assessment efficiently; Inculcating the possibility of multiple disasters in resilience assessment; Design optimization for resilience enhancement; Efficient restoration strategies. All these research areas have not been explored exclusively for chemical facilities to a great extent. It is concluded that if these research areas are addressed appropriately, it would help in triggering the research pertaining to the application of resilience engineering principles in chemical facilities.     

A pattern of contractor selection for oil and gas industries in a safety approach using ANP-DEMATEL in a Grey environment

Contractor selection is one of the major concerns of industry managers such as those in the oil industry. The objective of this study was to determine a contractor selection pattern for oil and gas industries in a safety approach. Assessment of contractors based on specific criteria and ultimately selecting an eligible contractor preserves the organizational resources. Due to the safety risks involved in the oil industry, one of the major criteria of contractor selection considered by managers today is safety. The results indicated that the most important safety criterion of contractor selection was safety records and safety investments. This represented the industry’s risks and the impact of safety training and investment on the performance of other sectors and the overall organization. The output of this model could be useful in the safety risk assessment process in the oil industry and other industries.     

A hybrid model for human factor analysis in process accidents: FBN-HFACS

Human factors are the largest contributing factors to unsafe operation of the chemical process systems. Conventional methods of human factor assessment are often static, unable to deal with data and model uncertainty, and to consider independencies among failure modes. To overcome the above limitations, this paper presents a hybrid dynamic human factor model considering Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, and Bayesian network. The model is tested on accident scenarios which have occurred in a hot tapping operation of a natural gas pipeline. The results demonstrate that poor occupational safety training, failure to implement risk management principles, and ignoring reporting unsafe conditions were the factors that contributed most failures causing accident. The potential risk-based safety measures for preventing similar accidents are discussed. The application of the model confirms its robustness in estimating impact rate (degree) of human factor induced failures, consideration of the conditional dependency, and a dynamic and flexible modelling structure.     

A review of the past,present and future of the European loss prevention and safety promotion in the process industries

In 2013, the European Federation of Chemical Engineering (EFCE) celebrates its 60th anniversary. EFCE has continually promoted scientific collaboration and supported the work of engineers and scientists in thirty European countries. As for its mission statement, EFCE helps European Society to meet its needs through highlighting the role of Chemical Engineering in delivering sustainable processes and products. Within this organizational framework the Loss Prevention Symposium series, organized throughout Europe on behalf of the Loss Prevention Working Party of the EFCE, represents a fruitful tradition covering a time span of forty years. The tri-annual symposium gathers experts and scientists to seek technical improvements and scientific support for a growingly safer industry and quality of life. Following the loss prevention history in this paper, a time perspective on loss prevention and its future is presented.     

Developing a new alternative risk assessment framework in the work sites by including a stochastic and a deterministic process: A case study for the Greek Public Electric Power Provider

An individual method cannot achieve the optimum risk-assessment result in the worksites, and future perspectives should focus on the parallel application of a deterministic approach with a stochastic approach. In particular, the risk analysis and assessment techniques of the deterministic (DET) approach are classified into three main categories: (a) the qualitative, (b) the quantitative, and (c) the hybrid techniques (qualitative-quantitative, semi-quantitative). Furthermore, the stochastic (STO) approach includes the classic statistical approach (CSA) and the accident forecasting modeling (AFM). The objective of this paper is triple: (a) the presentation and classification of the main risk analysis and risk assessment methods and techniques of the deterministic approach and the stochastic approach as well, (b) the development and presentation of a new alternative risk assessment framework (called as STODET) including a stochastic and a deterministic process, and (c) the application of STODET in the Greek Public Power Corporation (PPC) by using occupational accidents that have been recorded, during the 17-year period of 1993-2009. In particular, the STODET application proves that required actions (or suppressive measures) are essential and must be taken in a medium-term period (1 working year) for abolishing the hazard sources.     

Toward an integrative approach of the industrial risk management process in France

Management in the field of environmental protection and risk prevention has evolved to the increasing participation of all stakeholders in the decision-making process. It certainly results from the development of the Information society and the global increase of knowledge of the population, combined with the concerns of the populations related to a sustainable development of our civilisation. Our ‘risk society’, following the big industrial disasters (Flixborough,Tchernobyl, Bhopal, Challenger, and more recently Toulouse), has also developed a cautious attitude towards the role of the expertise when it comes to assessing risks, along with a question of the ability of science to give definite answers.

This has lead in particular to the adoption of the Aarhus convention in 1998 and the evolution of several regulations in the developed countries. For example, in France the new law no. 2003–699 of 30 July 2003 about the ‘prevention of the technological and natural risks and to the compensation for the damages’ has introduced an important innovation into the process of technological risks prevention.

This law has enabled the involvement of the stakeholders in the decision-making process related to risk prevention and has urged the development of specific tools to deal with the complexity of risk management issues, in particular for those related to land-use planning.

As technical support to decision-makers in risk management from both public and private sectors, INERIS has played an important role for the evolution of the French risk management system.

This paper describes an analysis on the difficulty to control major accident hazards in an evolving context where the industrial systems becomes more and more complex and where the expectations of the civil society has increased. Then, the authors describe how an integrated vision for industrial risk management has emerged in France and is being implemented in a new law adopted after the Toulouse disaster.     

On the use of criteria based on the SMART acronym to assess quality of performance indicators for safety management in process industries

Management of safety, and barriers in particular, includes using information expressing performance, i.e. use of safety performance indicators. For this information to be useful, the indicators should demonstrate adequate quality. In other words, they should satisfy some predefined set of quality criteria. Without showing adequate quality, the indicators are generally unable to provide sufficient support for barrier management, which could result in poor decisions. In this article, the use of the SMART criteria is considered to assess the quality of safety performance indicators in process industries. SMART being an acronym for ‘specificity’, ‘measurability’ or ‘manageability’, ‘achievability’, ‘relevancy’ and ‘time-based’, covering five key aspects and criteria for assessing the quality of an indicator. A discussion on whether the indicators are able to demonstrate adequate quality by satisfying these criteria has been conducted. The finding is that all of the SMART criteria should be satisfied for a safety performance indicator to demonstrate acceptable quality and to be regarded as useful to support barrier management decision-making. However, it has also been observed that including the ‘M’ criterion in the assessment of quality is not needed. When all the other criteria are satisfied there is no way the conclusions could be misleading as a result of measurability or manageability aspects. Hence, for safety performance indicator quality, only four of the criteria are assessed and suggested for such situations to shorten the acronym to ‘STAR’. A key safety indicator used in downstream process facilities, i.e. ‘dangerous fluid overfilling events’, motivated from the 2005 Texas City refinery accident, is used to illustrate the situation. The indicator is also applied to another incident, the Buncefield oil storage depot's accident in 2005, to provide a broader context for using it. The findings in this article could also be applied beyond the context studied. This means that, despite focusing on safety indicators in the process industries, the findings are considered as relevant and applicable to other types of performance indicators and to other energy industries.     

地震灾害下城市供水网络韧性评估及优化研究

为提升城市供水网络应对地震灾害的能力,基于性能响应函数(PRF)方法,引入基础设施网络均衡理论,设计综合考虑城市供水网络物理状态和输送能力的性能时程响应函数,构建贯穿结构和功能双维度的地震灾害下城市供水网络韧性评估方法;从灾害概率、灾害后果、恢复速度、恢复程度等4个关键因素出发,提出城市供水网络网状扩张、管道延性改造、...     

History of Dutch process equipment failure frequencies and the Purple Book

In the middle of 70s concerns of the public in the Netherlands about fire, explosion and toxic risks due to mishaps in the expanding process industry, causing political pressure led to the embracement of quantitative risk analysis as tool for licensing and land-use planning. Probabilistic treatment of risk had been exercised before to design flood defense. A ‘test’ on six different plants, the COVO study, favored the idea. Failure rate values were in immediate need. For storage vessels AKZO’s chlorine vessel data and British steam boiler data have been the first. Risk criteria to make decisions on were also developed and in 1985 embodied in legislation. As licensing and land-use planning are tasks of provincial authorities, under the auspices of the Inter-Provincial Consultation (IPO), further details such as failure frequency values have been worked out. In the late 90s the Purple Book consolidated the information as a guideline for Dutch quantitative risk assessment of process installations.The paper will give a condensed historical overview, guidance to published papers; it will further make comments, explain policy backgrounds, present comparison with other data and will briefly indicate in which direction developments should go to improve QRA.     

Methods and models in process safety and risk management: Past,present and future

The paper reviews past progress in the development of methods and models for process safety and risk management and highlights the present research trends; also it outlines the opinions of the authors regarding the future research direction in the field. Based on the open literature published in the leading journals in the field of safety, risk and reliability, the review covers the evolution of the methods and models developed for process safety and risk management. The methods and models are categorized as qualitative, semi-quantitative, quantitative and hybrid. The progress in the last few decades is discussed in the context of the past. Developments in the current decade formulate the basis of the present trends; future directions for research in these fields are also outlined. The aim of the article is to provide a historical development in this field with respect to the driving forces behind the development. It is expected that it will help researchers and industrial practitioners to gain a better understanding of the existing concepts. At the same time the aim is to provide direction to bridge the existing gaps through research and developments.     

A thermal hazard risk evaluation of emulsion polymerisation and vinyl acetate monomers in the latex manufacturing process

Latex is extensively used in industrial products. However, completing some processes at scale leads to unacceptable levels of risk that need to be quantified and mitigated. Systemic risks must be eliminated wherever possible, and safety takes priority over efficiency and quality. To assess the process risks accurately, four raw materials were examined in this study: polyvinyl acetate (PVA), latex process-initiator-ammonium persulfate (APS) and hydrogen peroxide (H₂O₂), and vinyl acetate monomer (VAM). The physicochemical composition of the PVA latex process was determined via calorimeters, including differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and vent sizing package 2 (VSP2). The calorimetry results showed that the protective colloid was a critical component in the polymerisation reaction. In addition, when adding initiators to the system, it is vital to observe the normal ratio of materials and keep the stirring system operating. The scenario system also simulated the effects of shutting down various inhibitory programs, including the build-up of free radicals that could result in a runaway reaction when the initiator was added in excess. On the other hand, the result of the risk matrix displayed as a medium level, indicating that although the probability of an accident is low, the resulting severity is at disaster level. As a result, this study provides process safety engineers with a reliable frame of reference for assessing the potential dangers in the PVA latex manufacturing process.     

Determining a realistic ranking of the most dangerous process equipment of the ammonia production process: A practical approach

OCI Nitrogen seeks to gain knowledge of (leading) indicators regarding the process safety performance of their ammonia production process. The current research determines the most dangerous process equipment by calculating their effects resulting from a loss of containment using DNV GL's Phast™ dispersion model. In this paper, flammable and toxic effects from a release from the main equipment of an ammonia plant have been calculated. Such an encompassing approach, which can be carried out for an entire plant, is innovative and has never been conducted before. By using this model, it has been demonstrated that the effects arising from an event of failure are the largest in process equipment containing pressurized synthesis gas and ‘warm’ liquid ammonia, meaning the ammonia buffer tanks, ammonia product pumps, and the ammonia separator. Most importantly, this document substantiates that it is possible to rank the most hazardous process equipment of the ammonia production process based on an adverse impact on humans using the calculated effect distance as a starting point for a chance of death of at least 95%. The results from the effect calculations can be used for risk mapping of an entire chemical plant or be employed and applied in a layer of protection analysis (LOPA) to establish risk mitigation measures.     

Decision-making on process risk of Arctic route for LNG carrier via dynamic Bayesian network modeling

An increasing number of ships have chosen the suitable route to transport in Arctic waters during summer. Seeking a suitable model for risk decision-making in route planning is a necessary research topic at present. Due to its complex natural environment, there is significant uncertainty regarding ship navigation safety in Arctic waters. The process risk-based decision-making method to support route planning is established based on the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) risk assessment model for LNG carrier collision with ice or obstacles in Arctic waters. The decision-making process for ship navigation is dynamically associated with time. Therefore, a Markov Chain (MC) is built for each dynamic node in Bayesian belief network (BBN) to realize DBN associated risk assessment, which is called process risk and is applied to decision-making. Three possible routes for ships sailing from the Vikitsky Strait to the Long Strait in Arctic waters were selected in conjunction with the objective daily change data of wind speed, temperature, wave height, and ice condition. Simulations for risk decision-making in the ship navigation process are performed. Application examples show that the ship selected either ROUTE2 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Sannikov Strait – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) or ROUTE3 (Vikitsky Strait – Laptev Sea – Proliv Dmitriya Lapteva – Eastern Siberian Sea – Long Strait) in August as the best navigable route.     

Does your facility have a dust problem: Methods for evaluating dust explosion hazards

The hazards of dust explosions prevailing in plants are dependent on a large variety of factors that include process parameters, such as pressure, temperature and flow characteristics, as well as equipment properties, such as geometry layout, the presence of moving elements, dust explosion characteristics and mitigating measures. A good dust explosion risk assessment is a thorough method involving the identification of all hazards, their probability of occurrence and the severity of potential consequences. The consequences of dust explosions are described as consequences for personnel and equipment, taking into account consequences of both primary and secondary events.While certain standards cover all the basic elements of explosion prevention and protection, systematic risk assessments and area classifications are obligatory in Europe, as required by EU ATEX and Seveso II directives. In the United States, NFPA 654 requires that the design of the fire and explosion safety provisions shall be based on a process hazard analysis of the facility, process, and the associated fire or explosion hazards. In this paper, we will demonstrate how applying such techniques as SCRAM (short-cut risk analysis method) can help identify potentially hazardous conditions and provide valuable assistance in reducing high-risk areas. The likelihood of a dust explosion is based on the ignition probability and the probability of flammable dust clouds arising. While all possible ignition sources are reviewed, the most important ones include open flames, mechanical sparks, hot surfaces, electric equipment, smoldering combustion (self-ignition) and electrostatic sparks and discharges. The probability of dust clouds arising is closely related to both process and dust dispersion properties.Factors determining the consequences of dust explosions include how frequently personnel are present, the equipment strength, implemented consequence-reducing measures and housekeeping, as risk assessment techniques demonstrate the importance of good housekeeping especially due to the enormous consequences of secondary dust explosions (despite their relatively low probability). The ignitibility and explosibility of the potential dust clouds also play a crucial role in determining the overall risk.Classes describe both the likelihood of dust explosions and their consequences, ranging from low probabilities and limited local damage, to high probability of occurrence and catastrophic damage. Acceptance criteria are determined based on the likelihood and consequence of the events. The risk assessment techniques also allow for choosing adequate risk reducing measures: both preventive and protective. Techniques for mitigating identified explosions risks include the following: bursting disks and quenching tubes, explosion suppression systems, explosion isolating systems, inerting techniques and temperature control. Advanced CFD tools (DESC) can be used to not only assess dust explosion hazards, but also provide valuable insight into protective measures, including suppression and venting.     

Chronicles of security risk assessment in process industries: Past,present and future perspectives

Security incidents around the world causes enormous loss in terms of life, economy, and environment. The 9/11 ′triggered the serious onset of research initiatives in the field of security with a more specific focus on the protection of high sensitive and hazardous facilities. It is well known that technology is advancing in a very rapid phase, proportionally increasing the security risk of the facilities. Conventional deterministic risk techniques widely found their applications in the earlier stage but owing to the increasing dynamic nature of the security risk, probabilistic dynamic risk assessment models were developed over time. In this article, the authors attempted to present the evolution of security risk concepts, their present status, and their future scope in a precise and consolidated form. The last 20 years of development in the security risk assessment concept involving deterministic and dynamic risk assessment models and applications in security risk assessment relevant to physical security are discussed in this article. The objective of the article is to outline the past, current and future directions of security risk highlighting their strength, weakness and limitations.     

Safety leadership and safety performance in petrochemical industries: The mediating role of safety climate

This study examines the relationship among three latent variables: safety leadership, safety climate, and safety performance. Employees from 23 plants in seven departments of a petrochemical company in central Taiwan completed a questionnaire survey. From this, a sample of 521 responses was randomly selected. Structural equation modeling (SEM) analysis using the AMOS 5.0 was employed to test the hypothesized model relating the above-mentioned variables. The results indicate that the model was supported, and that safety climate mediated the relationship between safety leadership and performance. Practical implications of these results for process safety management in the petrochemical industries are discussed.     

Performance evaluation of integrated resilience engineering factors by data envelopment analysis: The case of a petrochemical plant

Petrochemical units are potentially prone to incidents that have catastrophic consequences such as explosion, leakage of toxic materials, and the stoppage of the production process. Resilience engineering (RE) is a new method that can control incidents and limit their consequences. It includes top-level commitment, reporting culture, learning, awareness, preparedness, and flexibility. However, this study introduces a new concept of RE (referred to as integrated RE or IRE) which includes the above factors in addition to self-organization, teamwork, redundancy and fault-tolerant. This study evaluates performance of IRE in a petrochemical plant through considering the obtained data from questionnaires and data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach. Moreover, the performance of RE and the new IRE are compared and discussed. The results show that although there is a strong direct correlation between the DEA results in two frameworks, the mean scores of efficiency in IRE is slightly higher than RE. This is the first study that introduces an integrated approach for RE. In addition, this study is amongst the first ones that examine the behavior of resilience engineering by DEA. Moreover, the superiority of IRE is shown through robust statistical analysis.