一起氧气瓶爆炸事故的技术分析

针对一起氧气瓶爆炸事故,进行了详细的实际调查,并以科学理论和数据为依据,进行了多角度的技术分析。     

液化石油气钢瓶爆炸事故分析与思考

我国液化气钢瓶使用量大而广,液化气钢瓶事故时有发生。由于使用者安全意识不强,气瓶违法充装、超期不检、违规检验或修理改造报废气瓶等问题导致的气瓶事故仍居高不下,是造成我国液化气钢瓶事故的主要原因。另外,违法将二甲醚掺入液化石油气钢瓶,液化石油气钢瓶管理混乱也是事故发生的主要原因。该文在分析事故原因的基础上,提出调换液化石油气钢瓶,在使用时有人看管,液化石油气钢瓶必须直立使用,放置位置不要靠近热源等几条液化石油气安全使用要点分析与事故处置。以加大对液化石油气钢瓶事故灾害预防、隐患治理工作,加大对用户安全使用常识的宣传教育工作,杜绝事故的发生。     

PDE accident model from a safety information perspective and its application to Zhangjiakou fire and explosion accident

Accident models can provide theoretical frameworks for determining the causes and mechanisms of accidents, and thus are theoretical bases for accident analysis and prevention. The role of safety information in accident causation is profound. Thus, safety information is an important and essential perspective for developing accident models. This study presents a new accident model developed from a safety information perspective, called the Prediction—Decision—Execution (PDE) accident model. Because the PDE accident model is an emerging accident model that was proposed in 2018, its analysis logic and viability remain to be discussed. Thus, the main contributions of this study include two aspects: (i) detailed explanation of the analysis logic of the PDE accident model, and (ii) case-study examination of the Zhangjiakou fire and explosion accident, a serious accident that occurred in China in 2018, to demonstrate the viability of the PDE accident model. Results show that this is a safety-information-driven accident model that can provide a new and effective methodology for accident analysis and prevention, and safety management.     

泄漏孔形状对液化石油气泄漏扩散的影响

基于液化石油气的特点,建立了有限空间内部发生泄漏扩散的物理模型,模拟了液化石油气泄漏扩散的过程,通过模拟结果分析其扩散规律,并对比当泄漏孔形状分别为正方形、圆形、三角形时液化石油气扩散过程的变化以及对所形成的的爆炸危险区域的影响。监测点1（0.8,0.3,0）,点2（2.4,0.3,2.5）,点3（0,0.3,1.5）,点4（2,0.3,3）的浓度变化,找出报警器的最佳安放位置。结果表明:泄漏时间相同,丙烷的扩散范围从大到小依次为三角形孔口、圆形孔口、正方形孔口,爆炸危险区域也与泄漏孔形状有关,三角形孔口的危险区域范围最广,其次是圆形泄漏孔,正方形泄漏孔的范围最小,点1处的丙烷浓度增长幅度较大,浓度较高,可以更早达到报警浓度。     

Development of a new chemical process-industry accident database to assist in past accident analysis

Past accident analysis (PAA) is one of the most potent and oft-used exercises for gaining insights into the reasons why accidents occur in chemical process industry (CPI) and the damage they cause. PAA provides invaluable ‘wisdom of hindsight’ with which strategies to prevent accidents or cushion the impact of inevitable accidents can be developed.A number of databases maintain record of past accidents in CPI. The most comprehensive of the existing databases include Major Hazard Incident Data Service (MHIDAS), Major Accident Reporting System (MARS), and Failure and Accidents Technical Information Systems (FACTS). But each of these databases have some limitations. For example MHIDAS can be accessed only after paying a substantial fee. Moreover, as detailed in the paper, it is not infallible and has some inaccuracies. Other databases, besides having similar problems, are seldom confined to accidents in chemical process industries but also cover accidents from other domains such as nuclear power plants, construction industry, and natural disasters. This makes them difficult to use for PAA relating to CPI. Operational injuries not related to loss of containment, are also often included. Moreover, the detailing of events doesn’t follow a consistent pattern or classification; a good deal of relevant information is either missing or is misclassified.The present work is an attempt to develop a comprehensive open-source database to assist PAA. To this end, information on about 8000 accidents, available in different open-source clearing houses has been brought into a new database named by us PUPAD (Pondicherry University Process-industry Accident Database). Multiple and overlapping accident records have been carefully eliminated and a search engine has been developed for retrieval of the records on the basis of appropriate classification. PUPAD doesn’t aim to replace or substitute the well established databases such as MHIDAS and MARS but, rather, aims to compliment them.     

Fire and explosion hazard analysis during surface transport of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): A case study of LPG truck tanker accident in Kannur,Kerala, India

This paper presents an analysis and simulation of an accident involving a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) truck tanker in Kannur, Kerala, India. During the accident, a truck tanker hit a divider and overturned. A crack in the bottom pipe caused leakage of LPG for about 20 min forming a large vapor cloud, which got ignited, creating a fireball and a boiling liquid expanding vapor explosion (BLEVE) situation in the LPG tank with subsequent fire and explosion. Many fatalities and injuries were reported along with burning of trees, houses, shops, vehicles, etc. In the present study, ALOHA (Area Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres) and PHAST (Process Hazard Analysis Software Tool) software have been used to model and simulate the accident scenario. Modeling and simulation results of the fireball, jet flame radiation and explosion overpressure agree well with the actual loss reported from the site. The effects of the fireball scenario were more significant in comparison to that of the jet fire scenario.     

液化石油气罐区火灾爆炸危险性评价

液化石油气罐区属于重大危险源,一旦发生火灾爆炸事故,后果非常严重.评价其安全性,控制其危险,是重大事故预防的思想,也是国家安全生产法律、法规的强制要求.笔者根据安全工程学的相关原理,综合运用重大危险源评价法和灰色聚类法分别对罐区的固有危险性和现实危险性进行了评价,克服了重大危险性评价法未考虑环境因素这一缺陷,最后得出了其火灾爆炸危险性等级,为政府监管和企业对危险源的监控管理提供了可行的科学依据.     

埋地输氢管道泄漏爆炸事故后果模拟分析

为了输氢管道的安全建设与运营,基于计算流体力学FLACS软件,模拟了埋地输氢管道在半受限空间内的泄漏爆炸事故后果,探讨了泄漏孔径、泄漏时长、输氢压力和环境风速对爆炸事故后果的影响规律,并得出相应的危险区域。结果表明:泄漏孔径、输氢压力和最大爆炸超压均与危险区域呈正相关关系,泄漏时长对事故后果几乎无影响;随着输氢压力的增大,危险区域受建筑物和风速的影响更为明显,在建筑物附近形成了狭长的危险区域带;最大爆炸超压和危险区域随环境风速的增大均呈现出先增大后减小的趋势。     

Investigative consequence analysis: A case study research of beirut explosion accident

Around 15:00 GMT on August 4th, an explosion occurred in the warehouse facility storing Ammonium Nitrate (AN) at Beirut port, Lebanon. The explosion resulted in more than 178 fatalities and injured more than 6500 people, and also left an estimated 300,000 people homeless and registered as an equivalent to a 3.3 magnitude earth quake. The accident was considered to be the largest of its kind and the most severe anthropological disaster of the decade, the financial loss the nation was subjected to post the explosion was estimated to be around $ 15 billion as informed by the governor. The storage conditions of ammonium nitrate at Beirut port is not definitively known to anyone, and there is no documentation provided so far from the authorities regarding the same. This work focuses on the investigation & consequence analysis of the explosion using TNT equivalent approach. The overpressure and the impulse obtained from TNT calculations are used in probit models to assess the damages caused on human beings and structures. The results obtained in this investigative approach are then utilized to provide an analytical inference relative to the damage proxy map reported by the advance rapid imaging analysis team from NASA. Also, this work examines the existing standards, fire safety measures and legal regulations for ammonium nitrate facilities in the region. AN explosion during storage like other fire and explosion accidents are definitely preventable owing to the technological advancements and developments to prevent or extinguish controllable fires. The significance of this work relates to the methods for calculation of consequences of explosion that are happening due to the storage of highly hazardous explosive materials in excessive quantities and insists the necessity of incorporating adequate safety measures while storing such reactive and hazardous materials.     

Simulation of scenario characteristics of LPG tank explosion accident and its contribution to emergency planning: A case study

Leakage and explosion of hazardous chemicals during road transportation can cause serious building damage and casualties, and adoption of highly-efficient emergency rescue measures plays a critical role in reducing accidental hazards. Considering a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) transport tanker explosion accident that occurred in Wenling, Zhejiang Province, China on June 13, 2020 as example, this study proposes a risk assessment framework. This framework recreates the leakage and explosion of the accident process using FLACS v10.9, suggests plans for evacuation, describes the rescue areas of different levels, and explores the influence of environmental factors on the evacuation and rescue areas. The results show that simulated and predicted distributions of fuel vapour cloud concentration and explosion overpressure can provide a reference basis for rapid rescue activities; the characterization of the dynamic effects of wind speed, wind direction, and temperature with respect to the evacuation and rescue areas can be used as theoretical support for on-site adjustment of rescue forces. The role of obstacles can prevent the expansion of the evacuation areas under low wind-speed conditions, and the presence of highly congested obstacles determines the level of the rescue area. The results obtained are important for the risk analysis and the development of emergency rescue measures in case of explosion accidents associated with transportation of hazardous chemicals on high-hazard and high-sensitive road sections.     

Safety with access scaffolds: development of a prototype decision aid based on accident analysis

PROBLEM: Accidents involving temporary access systems, particularly temporary scaffolds, account for a large proportion of injuries in the construction industry worldwide. METHOD: This paper outlines the development of a prototype decision aid (SCAFPASS, an abbreviation for Scaffold Planning Aid for System Safety) to promote access scaffold safety. It was guided by an examination of the root-causes and management deficiencies apparent in: (a) paper-based files of 186 access-related incidents held by the Health and Safety Executive (HSE) in the UK; and (b) computer-based files of 2,910 incidents appearing in the HSE database between 1997 to 2000. RESULTS: The more frequent root-causes included the fitting of defective components, unauthorized modification of the structure, omission of barriers, and errors resulting in simple, readily detectable structural faults. Common managerial deficiencies included failure to control risk, unsafe methods and procedures, and inadequate training and supervision. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: SCAFPASS aims to avoid these root-causes by improving safety management from the outset and throughout all phases of a project.     

Fire and risk analysis during loading and unloading operation in liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) bottling plant

The article focuses on analyzing risks associated with the gas transfer operation in a liquified petroleum gas (LPG) bottling plant in India. The transfer operations involve transferring liquified gas from the transport tanker to the underground storage tank. Due to the rapid expansion of the cities, many LPG bottling plants in India got surrounded by residential areas and business centers. Moreover, to maintain the supply chain, the frequency of the transfer operations at the bottling plant also increased. In this scenario, an accidental release of LPG during the transfer operation may lead to various consequences such as a pool fire, a fireball, and even a catastrophic rupture of the tank with a successive explosion of its contents. In the study, the operations involved in bottling plants are classified into different hazard zones and analyzed. The probability of occurrence of events leading to an accident is modeled using modeling tools such as ALOHA and PHAST. The consequences of an accident following various events, such as jet fire, fireball, etc., are modeled, and the simulation results are compared. The thermal radiation has been estimated as 4–40 kW/m², which could adversely affect the nearby population and could result in damaging plant machinery and equipment.     

液化石油气球罐泄漏危险的预防和控制探讨

阐述了液化石油气球罐的特点。对液化石油气球罐的泄漏危险性进行了分析,主要存在的泄漏危险有泄漏物质易燃易爆、易发生泄漏、受热易膨胀导致泄漏、泄漏气体易积聚、泄漏事故具有隐蔽性、泄漏物质具有毒害性。根据液化气泄漏危险性分析,提出了预防和控制液化石油气球罐泄漏危害的安全措施:加强设备质量管理,杜绝泄漏现象;合理设置球罐,降低泄漏风险;规范安全操作,减少泄漏量;防止泄漏气体积聚;设置防泄漏安全装置;及时发现泄漏;设置消防给水及灭火设施;妥善处理泄漏事故。     

基于社会网络分析法的液化石油气灌装站安全评价

为客观反映液化石油气灌(LPG)装站整体安全生产状况,用社会网络分析法研究灌装站安全评价标准。基于某市区域内100家LPG灌装站安全评价现场检查数据,借助UCINET软件对安全评价指标进行结点中心度、接近中心度和间距中心度分析,探究安全评价指标的重要度、紧密度以及控制、影响其他评价指标的程度,确定14项中心度较高的核心评价指标及其对应的灌装站的潜在安全隐患,并与实际统计数据进行了对比。结果表明,该方法分析结果与灌装站实际情况相符。     

事故树分析法在LPG储罐火灾爆炸事故中的应用

LPG(液化石油气)属于危险化学品之一,LPG储罐发生火灾爆炸的机率大,造成的损失比较严重,故对其火灾爆炸事故进行研究具有重要意义。LPG储罐爆炸根据其发生机理分为化学爆炸(燃爆)和物理爆炸两种模式。本文通过对LPG储罐燃爆﹑物理爆炸两类事故进行系统分析,建立了以LPG储罐燃爆、物理爆炸为顶事件的事故树。通过对其事故树的定性分析,得到了影响顶事件的各个最小割(径)集。通过计算底事件的结构重要度,确定了影响LPG储罐火灾爆炸事故的主要因素,并提出了相应的改进措施,进而提高LPG储罐的安全性和运行可靠性。     

基于系统理论事故模型与过程的危险性分析方法

传统危险性分析方法将事故视为开始事件诱发的一连串事件所造成的不幸后果,适于处理相对简单或由物理组件构成的系统,但无法胜 任较为复杂的社会技术系统,有必要研究和探索推广性更好、更为有效的系统安全分析手段。系统理论事故模型与过程（STAMP）将安全视为系 统组件间交互的一种涌现特性,并认为事故起因除了组件失效,组件间交互失常而违背安全约束也是重要诱因。主张在系统开发、设计和运行 中通过加强控制和强化有关安全约束来预防事故。基于此,先引入了STAMP的基本概念,并介绍了其分析步骤,然后,以贴近真实的导弹拦截系 统危险性分析案例,阐述了基于STAMP的分析过程。该分析方法可为开发较高安全性水平的社会技术系统提供技术支持。     

Comparison of techniques for accident scenario analysis in hazardous systems

In this paper, three accident scenario analysis techniques are presented and compared regarding their efficiency vs. the demanded resources. The complexity of modern industrial systems has prompted the development of accident analysis techniques that should thoroughly investigate accidents. The idea of criteria classification to fulfill this requirement has been proposed by other researchers and is examined here too. The comparison is done through the application of Event Tree analysis, Fault Tree analysis and Petri Nets technique—two relatively simple and a more demanding methodology—on the same hazardous chemical facility in view of analyzing an accident scenario of a hazardous transfer procedure. Accident scenario analysis techniques are essential not only in learning lessons from unfortunate events in the chemical industry but also in preventing the occurrence of such events in the future and in communicating risk more efficiently.     

Hazard analysis on LPG fireball of road tanker BLEVE based on CFD simulation

In order to research the hydrocarbon fireball characteristic of LPG tanker Boiled Liquid Evaporate Vapor Explosion (BLEVE) under different conditions, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations of the hydrocarbon fireballs from the LPG tanker BLEVE accidents were carried out. Several new different factors, such as the mass of fuel, inlet velocity and airflow velocity, were considered to analyze the influence on the evolution of the characteristics of the fireball and the development of the LPG tanker BLEVE accidents. Results indicate that the fireball with a greater mass of fuel radiates more heat but slower. The large longitudinal diameter of the fireball and high radiation heat flux are observed in case of a faster inlet velocity used for the same mass. The airflow was found to shorten the initial phase of the fireball effectively. Some suggestions were proposed to prevent the LPG BLEVE accidents. Analysis performed show that various parameters like fireball diameter, radiative heat flux and lifting speed of fireball can be predicted well using FDS code.     

基于模糊推理的FRAM事故定量分析方法研究

为有效克服FRAM事故分析中无法进行定量分析的缺陷,提出结合模糊推理技术的Fuzzy FRAM模型。此改进模型基于FRAM识别系统运行状态;依据功能输出要素的时间/精度属性利用Matlab构建2阶模糊推理系统量化功能输出质量;根据通用性能条件(CPC)及功能输入耦合端口构建功能评价体系,针对评价体系中存在的不确定性信息融合及建模问题,采用模糊证据推理技术,通过模糊信度结构建立、数据处理、信息融合测度后获得功能的风险指数;以既有铁路危险品运输事故为例,验证方法的可行性。结果表明:Fuzzy FRAM模型的评估结果较为精确,是FRAM分析方法的有效补充。     

基于HCNAM-BN的化工过程爆炸事故致因链分析

为了从源头上预防化工过程爆炸事故,依据风险耦合理论,探讨了各风险因子非线性耦合演化为爆炸事故的机理,构建了层次耦合网络分析模型（HCNAM）;从多因素风险耦合角度分析了国内外44起典型化工过程爆炸事故,统计了各风险因子之间的耦合概率并进行了耦合致因重要度分级;采用耦合概率与二态分布相结合的条件概率分布,将层次耦合网络分析模型转化为贝叶斯网络,并对氯乙烯单体槽爆炸性混合气体爆炸事故进行了应用研究。结果表明:91种双因子耦合风险状态中,47种呈现弱耦合致因特性;7种因子双耦合形成风险的概率较大;基于HCNAM-BN模型分析事故,可有效辨识事故最可能致因因素,获取各事故致因链的发生概率并确定事故网络关键节点。