面向疫情危机的城市公共卫生系统韧性

为有效应对城市公共卫生危机,公共卫生系统韧性至关重要。以武汉新冠肺炎(COVID-19)疫情防控成功经验为例,运用扎根理论分析政府、社区、医疗机构、媒体、非政府组织在COVID-19疫情防控中的观念与行为,解析出反映系统韧性特征的疾病监测体系、防疫资源管理、合作治理能力等10个主范畴及对应的52个子范畴,由此将系统韧性细分为功能韧性、过程韧性和整体韧性。运用解释结构模型(ISM)构建提升公共卫生系统韧性的层次结构模型,揭示多元社会主体通过前述韧性要素集合:社会防疫基础、防疫科技与文化、疫情风险综合治理的层级递进应急准备,实现城市公共卫生系统韧性提升目标。     

A framework addressing a safe ageing management in complex industrial sites: The Italian experience in «Seveso» establishments

In Europe, the Directive 2012/18/EU (Seveso III) strengthens the obligation to adopt a program assuring the integrity of critical equipment at major hazard establishments, by taking into account actual deterioration mechanisms (internal and external corrosion, erosion, thermal and mechanical fatigue, etc.). The program must cover all phases of the lifecycle and ensure a safe ageing of equipment, particularly when these are reaching the final stage of life. The effectiveness of the integrity program must be carefully assessed during the audits planned by the establishment's operator as well as by inspectors on behalf of the Competent Authorities. The adoption of a Risk Based Inspection scheme provides a valuable help to face this matter. The operator is, anyway, required a considerable effort to face at least three issues related to: (i) the understanding of concurring physical and chemical phenomena; (ii) the management of information associated with each individual component and its history, (iii) the appropriate measurement, including acquisition and management of data. There is a considerable difficulty in understanding these issues during Seveso inspections and external audits, because time and resources are often limited. For this reason, models and methods supporting the definition of the ageing status and trend in industrial sites are needed. This paper analyses the main factors affecting ageing. A framework for “ageing” assessment in complex industrial sites, including “Seveso” establishments, is proposed; then, its validation, by means of data collected during a testing phase carried out in Italy, is also given.     

Ageing management and monitoring of critical equipment at Seveso sites: An ontological approach

A safe “ageing” of Seveso establishments is a challenge for both operators and regulators. To this scope, Seveso III Directive required to integrate the equipment integrity issue into the safety management system for the major accident prevention; at the same time, the Italian Authority adopted a short-cut method for a quick ageing evaluation, which awards the application of the best techniques to control integrity and prevent deterioration-related failures. In this paper, the use of the ontology has been proposed to support decision-making about the implementation of technical solutions to control equipment ageing and comply the requirements of the Seveso legislation. To contrast deterioration mechanisms, the rapid development of data intensive smart sensors should be exploited and, in this frame, the automated on-line direct monitoring of equipment conditions, based on innovative low-cost sensors, is a novelty and promising solution. The developed ontology-based system points towards the adoption, when possible, of on-line monitoring. This solution provides much more data than traditional measurements and it is essential for the operators to understand how to merge concurrent information and data and to adequately control equipment deterioration. The ontology-based approach appears a viable solution even for this purpose. To demonstrate its potentiality, a real use-case has been used, where the model has been tested in finding the best technical solutions to improve the ageing management of an atmospheric distillation unit of a refinery in order to comply with safety requirements. A further use-case is given to show how the model can be used to react, after real-time damage signals, to restore safety conditions by means of an adequate decision-making.     

Special Report from the CDC: Strengthening social connections to prevent suicide and adverse childhood experiences (ACEs): Actions and opportunities during the COVID-19 pandemic

Introduction: During this time ofintensified hardship and disruption due to the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic, communities, practitioners, and state and local governments have had to rapidly implement and adapt strategies that support mental health and wellbeing during a global pandemic. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, suicide was the 10th leading cause of death in the United States, and at least half of the top 10 leading causes of death have been associated with adverse childhood experiences (ACEs). A number of established risk factors for suicide and ACEs may have been exacerbated by the pandemic, including loneliness and lack of connectedness. Method: This article briefly considers the effects of COVID-19 on social connection and outlines the importance of adapting and developing programming and resources that address suicide and ACEs prevention during a time of infrastructure disruption. Practical Applications: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the ways that many individuals are able to safely interact and socially connect due to public health prevention strategies implemented to slow the spread of COVID-19. Local, city, and state government, community organizations, and public health and medical practitioners should consider the adaptation and development of existing and new programming, resources, and activities that support and strengthen social connection. In addition to implementing programs, policies may help address systemic and structural barriers to social connection, such as access to parks and open space, public transportation, or digital connectivity.     

韧性城市视角下的历史街区防火韧性评估体系构建*

为提升历史街区的防火韧性,推进韧性城市的建设,采用PSR（压力-状态-响应）模型搭建3级评估框架;结合指标选取原则,从外部环境刺激、内部潜在风险、组成成分价值、组成成分特征、消防救灾能力、适应恢复力6个要素对评估指标进行筛选;运用专家打分法和层次分析法确定各项指标的权重,并构建由36个指标项组成的历史街区防火韧性评估体系及评估模型。结果表明:历史街区的防火韧性宜从系统面对火灾风险的压力、系统自身在受灾时的状态、灾后系统做出的应急响应3个方面进行综合评估;该评估体系具有一定的可操作性和可推广性,既可为定量评估历史街区的消防能力提供参考依据,亦可为推进我国历史街区的保护和开发提供决策支持。     

农村公共卫生危机应急响应问题研究——以M镇新冠疫情为例

在重大公共卫生危机面前,基层农村提高公共危机应急响应能力,对于整个危机解除以及农村秩序恢复具有重要意义。本文以2019年底发生的全球性重大公共卫生危机——新冠疫情为例,以公共危机应急响应为视角,通过网络问卷调查方式,对农村在应急响应阶段的演化路径展开调研。通过调查发现,农村危机应急响应面临2个阶段困境:前期基层政府与群众反应不对等以及后期次生危机再生。基于此,结合农村特殊性分析困境存在的原因,并提出建议,以期为基层农村公共卫生危机管理提供借鉴。     

How can process safety and a risk management approach guide pandemic risk management?

The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) brought the world to a halt in March 2020. Various prediction and risk management approaches are being explored worldwide for decision making. This work adopts an advanced mechanistic model and utilizes tools for process safety to propose a framework for risk management for the current pandemic. A parameter tweaking and an artificial neural network-based parameter learning model have been developed for effective forecasting of the dynamic risk. Monte Carlo simulation was used to capture the randomness of the model parameters. A comparative analysis of the proposed methodologies has been carried out by using the susceptible, exposed, infected, quarantined, recovered, deceased (SEIQRD) model. A SEIQRD model was developed for four distinct locations: Italy, Germany, Ontario, and British Columbia. The learning-based approach resulted in better outcomes among the models tested in the present study. The layer of protection analysis is a useful framework to analyze the effect of different safety measures. This framework is used in this work to study the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on pandemic risk. The risk profiles suggest that a stage-wise releasing scenario is the most suitable approach with negligible resurgence. The case study provides valuable insights to practitioners in both the health sector and the process industries to implement advanced strategies for risk assessment and management. Both sectors can benefit from each other by using the mathematical models and the management tools used in each, and, more importantly, the lessons learned from crises.     

Main differences on European regulations in the frame of the Seveso Directive

Since the first Seveso Directive was issued 25 years ago, each Member State of the European Union developed own regulations to enforce its application. The lack of a common approach generated differences between Member States, or even between regions within a Member State, which in practical terms caused that establishments falling under the field of application of the Seveso Directive face a different level of requirements. This situation causes significantly different impact on social, technical and financial aspects.Factors like industrial background, accidental history, actual land use, social attitude towards risk, economical and political structures play an important role in how the decisions about hazardous activities are perceived and handled.Answering the question: “Is there a right methodology for the assessment of the risk of major accidents?” may be sterile or impossible. Many tools are appropriate and the main concern is to use them properly. Technically, the causes and consequences of, e.g., a fire in a port in Spain on the Mediterranean Sea or in the port of Basel (Switzerland) in the Rhine River could be assessed using the same methods and criteria, but this is not usually the case.This paper shows, with practical examples, the differences existing while applying different regulations in the field of prevention of major accidents and the potential effects that these differences may generate regarding the definition and management of emergency plans outside establishments.If the existing unequal situation is not faced, the comparative disagreements between Member States will prevail. Therefore, the application of the Seveso Directive will generate a different impact on the society, operators and regulators, and may become a factor which may cause a risk transfer between Member States. Efforts should be addressed to harmonize criteria in this subject.     

An assessment of organizational resilience potential in SMEs of the process industry,a fuzzy approach

In order to establish adequate tools for the modern business environment, and with a need for new mechanisms with the goal of overcoming crisis and emerging disorder, the concept of organizational resilience has emerged. A high level of organizational resilience represents one of an organization's target values during a normal period of operation. In a period of crisis, the presence of resilience is even more needed; this is emphasized in the process industry because in these conditions when one process fails it may cause significant problems in other processes. The contribution of this paper is shown through a fuzzy mathematical model for assessment of organizational resilience potential in SMEs of the process industry. The model is verified through an illustrative example where obtained data suggest measures which should enhance business strategy and improve organizational resilience factors. This study forms the basis for a survey that may include a significant number of organizations from one region and future improvement based on benchmark and knowledge sharing.     

A framework for resilience assessment in process systems using a fuzzy hybrid MCDM model

Resilience engineering (RE) has recently emerged as a novel safety management paradigm in socio-technical organizations. It is believed that RE is more compatible with the characteristics of complex socio-technical systems. The multicriteria nature and the presence of both qualitative and quantitative latent factors make RE substantially more complex especially in quantifying and modeling aspects. To address this issue, the present research aims to develop a fuzzy hybrid multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) model for quantifying and evaluating resilience using the fuzzy Analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) and fuzzy VIKOR (F-VIKOR) techniques. Initially, an evaluation framework including six resilience indicators and 43 sub-indicators was established. Afterward, the F-AHP method was used to determine the weight of the resilience indicators, while the F-VIKOR method was employed to rank the resilience performance of the different operational units. To present the model capability, we evaluated the resilience of a gas refinery as a typical instance of socio-technical systems. The findings revealed the performance level of resilience indicators in all units of the studied refinery and their ranking based on the computation of the index value (Qi). With respect to the Qi values, the best and worst performance of units from the resilience perspective was specified. Results indicate that the proposed model can serve as an effective evaluation approach in complicated systems and can be used to effectively design strategies to improve system safety performance. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that evaluates the resilience using the VIKOR and AHP in a fuzzy environment in the process industry.     

COVID-19 and individual performance in global virtual teams: The role of self-regulation and individual cultural value orientations

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, global virtual teams (GVTs) have become increasingly important. Drawing on conservation of resources theory and self-regulation theory, we examined the mechanism and process underlying individuals' performance in GVTs in this specific situation. We posit that the local severity of the pandemic has a negative effect on individuals' performance in GVTs and that self-regulation functions as a coping mechanism in times of pandemic-related ambient stress, reducing its negative effect on performance. We suggest that three cultural value orientations, that is, uncertainty avoidance, collectivism, and long-term orientation, explain different levels of self-regulation, which in turn moderates the relationship between the local severity of the pandemic and individual performance in GVTs. Based on a sample of 2727 individuals from 31 countries participating in an international business consulting project during the early stage of the unfolding pandemic, we show that (a) the local severity of the pandemic had a negative effect on individuals' performance, (b) the negative effect of the pandemic on performance is weaker for individuals with high self-regulation, and (c) uncertainty avoidance and long-term orientation are positively associated with self-regulation, which mediates the moderating relationship between the cultural value orientations and the relationship between the COVID-19 pandemic and individual performance in GVTs.     

Developing an external domino accident prevention framework: Hazwim

Empirical research on major accident safety in the second largest chemical cluster worldwide, the Antwerp port area, supports the design of a meta-technical framework for optimizing external domino prevention. First, the majority of Seveso top tier companies have expressed a willingness to cooperate more intensively to protect themselves against potential off-site major accidents. Second, Hazop, What–If analysis and the Risk Matrix, interesting building blocks for such a framework, are frequently used risk analysis techniques at Seveso lower tier and Seveso top tier companies. The developed framework, called Hazwim, integrates these three complementary techniques into an effective standardized risk analysis framework for the prevention of external xdomino accidents in an industrial area. The main strengths of Hazwim are its completeness and its cost-effectiveness. The combination of techniques on the one hand and qualitative and quantitative data on the other, offers a comprehensive up-to-date list of cross-company domino hazards and recommended actions in the area under consideration. The Hazwim framework offers support to prevention managers and safety policy makers concerning external domino prevention.     

A Bayesian network-based approach for the assessment and management of ageing in major hazard establishments

Currently, there is an increasing attention towards ageing of industrial equipment, as the phenomenon has been recognised as a cause of severe accidents, recorded in the last years in many process establishments. Recent studies described ageing through a number of key-factors affecting the phenomenon by accelerating or slowing it down. The Italian Competent Authority for the prevention of chemical accidents (Seveso III Directive) adopted a short-cut method, accounting for the assessment of these factors, to evaluate the adequateness of ageing management during inspections at Seveso sites. In this paper, a Bayesian Network was developed, by using the data gathered during the first application of the short-cut method, with the aim to verify the robustness of the approach for ageing assessment and the validity of the a priori assumptions used in assessing the key-factors. The structure of the Bayesian network was established by using experts’ knowledge, whereas the Counting Learning algorithm was adopted to execute the parameter learning by means of the software Netica. The results showed that this network could effectively explore the complex logical and uncertain relationships amongst factors affecting equipment ageing. Results of the present study were exploited to improve the short-cut method.     

基于模糊综合评判的冲击地压危险性分区预评价技术研究

为解决采煤工作面冲击地压危险性难以准确分区预评价的难题,运用模糊综合评判法建立冲击地压危险性评价模型,模拟工作面开采过程,对工作面开采过程中不同区域煤体应力影响因素进行综合分析,评判冲击危险性,实现了采煤工作面冲击危险性分区预评价。根据专家现场经验和试验研究结果,确定了影响冲击地压危险性等级的7个主要影响因素,采用层次分析法,确定各个因素的权重。评价模型在山东某煤矿3105工作面进行了应用,得到7个高度危险区,4个中度危险区,评价结果与现场实际基本吻合,表明该模型是合理可行的。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间企业生产安全风险管理

本文在分析新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情期间企业安全风险特点的基础上,建立了疫情期间安全风险管理模型,分析了这一特殊时期企业外部变化,以及企业内部人、物、环境、管理变化带来特殊安全风险,提出了针对性的风险管控措施。     

基于模糊综合评判的电网应灾能力量化评估*

为应对极端自然灾害下电网在灾前、灾后应灾能力评估的不足,提出基于模糊综合评判的电网应灾能力量化评估方法。通过分析电网系统的综合数据和关联指标,建立电网灾前承受力和灾后恢复力评估指标体系;运用层次分析法和熵权法各自求得指标主、客观权重,并依据权重占比组合成综合权重,使用模糊综合评判对电网应灾能力进行量化评估;通过案例对所提的评估进行验证。结果表明:该评估方法更加有效体现电网实际应灾能力水平,对电网应对极端自然灾害具有一定指导作用。     

Small enterprises and major hazards: How to develop an appropriate safety management system

Many small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) are obliged to adopt a Safety Managements System (SMS) by the Directive 2012/18/EU for the control of Major Accident Hazards (Seveso III). The difficulties of implementing an SMS within a small sized work organization are well known by practitioners, including inspectors and auditors and have been discussed in many recent papers. In the present paper is discussed a new method, based on the bowtie model, to build an easy and effective SMS. The very core of this method is a “safety net model”, which is able to connect in a network all the tangible and intangible elements of safety, including equipment, operating instructions, procedures and safety documents. This safety model has been used as the core of a smart application, the strength of which is the workers' contribution. The application allows the users to build step by step an SMS. It starts from a first version based just on regulations and standard codes (version 0), then it integrates internal knowledge through the bowtie paradigm (version 1). Near misses' discussion is used to transfer actual workers' experience into the system, to get intermediate improvement of the SMS (version 1.x). At the end audit may be used to a major release of the SMS (version 2). The full cycle has been tested at two small Seveso establishments: a galvanic plant and small glue manufacturer.     

Modeling the major accident prevention legislation change process within Europe

The factors giving impulse to changing major accident prevention legislation within Europe, the so-called Seveso Directive, have not been thoroughly studied and molded into an understandable model thus far. For example the exact relationship between major industrial accidents and an ever changing legislation is still unexplored. This paper thoroughly investigates the parameters having influenced the change of the 1996 Seveso II Directive into the 2003 Seveso Directive Amendment 2003/105/EC and develops the accompanying legislation change process. The official major accident reports of Baia Mare, Enschede and Toulouse are studied in-depth, as well as many other official EU documents. Furthermore, experts from academia, government and industry who witnessed and/or participated into the legislation change process were interviewed in-depth. More profound insights into the societal debate following a major accident may help private companies to adapt their safety management system and their prevention policies, and may aid the legislator to develop more efficient and effective regulations. This way, the societal demand to change legislation in an ad hoc manner may be unpressurized.     

航空公司安全监督人员绩效评价方法研究

为了促进航空公司安全监督人员更好地履行安全监督职责,针对员工绩效评价中的指标确立和权重合理量化问题,建立了包括工作业绩、工作能力和敬业精神在内的更全面的指标评价体系,应用层次分析法构建综合评价模型,并给出综合评价分值的计算公式。结果表明,层次分析法可以用于难以定量指标的权重的确定,提高了绩效评价的合理性和一致性。     

基于改进层次分析法的城中村火灾风险评估及防控对策研究

为更好的预防与控制城中村火灾风险,本文将事故树、层次分析法、模糊综合评价相结合,通过FTA建立AHP模型,从防火能力、灭火能力、安全疏散能力、安全管理水平4个维度出发构建了城中村火灾风险评估指标体系,并计算了各评价指标权重,通过实例研究证明,该方法能够较好的分析评价城中村火灾风险安全等级,最后提出相对应的对策与建议,有利于城中村火灾风险的预防与控制,为提高城中村火灾消防安全管理水平奠定了理论基础。