Predicting major accidents in the process industry based on the barrier status at scenario level: A practical approach

OCI Nitrogen wants to gain knowledge of (leading) indicators regarding the process safety performance of their ammonia production process. This paper answers the question whether indicators can be derived from the barrier system status to provide information about the development and likelihood of the major accident processes in the ammonia production process.The accident processes are visualized as scenarios in bowties. This research focuses on the status of the preventive barriers on the left-hand side of the bowtie. Both the quality – expressed in reliability/availability and effectiveness – and the activation of the barrier system give an indication of the development of the accident scenarios and the likelihood of the central event. This likelihood is calculated as a loss of risk reduction compared to the original design. The calculation results in an indicator called “preventive barrier indicator”, which should initiate further action. Based on an example, it is demonstrated which actions should be taken and what their urgency is.     

Safety investment optimization in process industry: A risk-based approach

Process plant safety is a critical indicator of organizational performance. Adequate investment into safety practices to avoid future accident cost is therefore a beneficial strategy. The current approach to such investments in the process industry is driven largely by simple risk-based heuristics, insurance market premiums, organizational culture and management judgment. There is, however, an absence of an overarching methodology to assist such an effort. Therefore, there is a need for developing a robust decision-making framework for enabling systematic and optimal allocation of financial resources across all significant risk elements within a process plant.The present work proposes a safety investment optimization (SIO) framework for a typical process plant. Such an optimization approach targets maximal reduction of risk values across all potential hazards within the constraint of a given safety investment budget at the incipient stage of establishing a plant such that it saves future cost to company by reducing the risk from accidents. At the same time the framework takes into account the need to comply with the regulatory requirements imposed by the government. Additionally, access to insurance market as a strategy to transfer risk is also integrated. Finally, the residual risks are managed through investments in selective safeguards while ensuring that the benefits over-weigh the cost of such an exercise. For illustrating the application of the framework, a representative process plant with a select number of risk scenarios is chosen and all steps suggested by the framework are demonstrated quantitatively. It is anticipated that the proposed SIO framework will help optimal resource allocation for managing the risks implicit in a typical process plant.     

History of Dutch process equipment failure frequencies and the Purple Book

In the middle of 70s concerns of the public in the Netherlands about fire, explosion and toxic risks due to mishaps in the expanding process industry, causing political pressure led to the embracement of quantitative risk analysis as tool for licensing and land-use planning. Probabilistic treatment of risk had been exercised before to design flood defense. A ‘test’ on six different plants, the COVO study, favored the idea. Failure rate values were in immediate need. For storage vessels AKZO’s chlorine vessel data and British steam boiler data have been the first. Risk criteria to make decisions on were also developed and in 1985 embodied in legislation. As licensing and land-use planning are tasks of provincial authorities, under the auspices of the Inter-Provincial Consultation (IPO), further details such as failure frequency values have been worked out. In the late 90s the Purple Book consolidated the information as a guideline for Dutch quantitative risk assessment of process installations.The paper will give a condensed historical overview, guidance to published papers; it will further make comments, explain policy backgrounds, present comparison with other data and will briefly indicate in which direction developments should go to improve QRA.     

A comparative analysis of process safety management (PSM) systems in the process industry

The root cause of most accidents in the process industry has been attributed to process safety issues ranging from poor safety culture, lack of communication, asset integrity issues, lack of management leadership and human factors. These accidents could have been prevented with adequate implementation of a robust process safety management (PSM) system. Therefore, the aim of this research is to develop a comparative framework which could aid in selecting an appropriate and suitable PSM system for specific industry sectors within the process industry. A total of 21 PSM systems are selected for this study and their theoretical frameworks, industry of application and deficiencies are explored. Next, a comparative framework is developed using eleven key factors that are applicable to the process industry such as framework and room for continuous improvement, design specification, industry adaptability and applicability, human factors, scope of application, usability in complex systems, safety culture, primary or secondary mode of application, regulatory enforcement, competency level, as well as inductive or deductive approach. After conducting the comparative analysis using these factors, the Integrated Process Safety Management System (IPSMS) model seems to be the most robust PSM system as it addressed almost every key area regarding process safety. However, inferences drawn from study findings suggest that there is still no one-size-fits-all PSM system for all sectors of the process industry.     

Process loss prevention of petrochemical process: A case study of the flashing accident of the storage tank on acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene powder in Taiwan

Qualitative analysis, process hazard analysis, thermal evaluation, and fault tree analysis were applied to a flashing accident involving a storage tank that contained acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) powder in Taiwan. The accident was caused by combustible powder attached to the inner wall of the tank reaching a high temperature and then melting. Thereafter, the molten powder became glue-like and dropped onto the ABS powder, burning at the tank bottom, causing decomposition of the styrene and butadiene derivatives as well as other combustible gases. The high concentration of combustible powder and low ignition temperature triggered the powder, initiating a dust explosion. Finally, we analyzed the findings of each method and examined the properties of ABS powder, realizing that the root cause of the accident included an insufficient understanding of the characteristics of ABS and the failure to comply with the management procedures of hot work. Recommendations and countermeasures were proposed that could proactively ameliorate process safety.     

Performance evaluation of process industries resilience: Risk-based with a network approach

Risk management can be defined as coordinated activities to conduct and control an organization with consideration of risk. Recently, risk management strategies have been developed to change the approach to hazards and risks. Resilience as a safety management theory considers the technical and social aspects of systems simultaneously. Resilience in process industries, as a socio-technical system, has four aspects of early detection, error-tolerant design, flexibility, and recoverability. Meanwhile, process industries' resilience has three phases: avoidance, survival, and recovery, determining the transition between normal state, process upset event, and catastrophic event. There may be various technical and social failures such as regulatory and human or organizational items that can lead to upset or catastrophic events. In the avoidance phase, the upset event is predicted, and thus, the system remains in a normal state. For the survival phase, the system state is assumed to be an upset process event, and the system tries to survive through the unhealthy process conditions or remains in the same state, probably with low performance. In the recovery phase, the system is supposed to be catastrophic, and the emergency barriers are prioritized to show the severity of the consequences and response time, leading to a resumption of a normal state. Therefore, a resilience-based network can be designed for process industries to show its inherent dynamic transition in nature. In this study, network data envelopment analysis (DEA), as a mathematical model, is used to evaluate the relative efficiency of the process industries regarding a network transition approach based on the system's internal structure. First, a resilience-based network is designed to consist of three states of normal, upset, and catastrophic events. Then, the efficiency of each industrial department, which is defined as decision-making units (DMUs), is evaluated using network DEA. As a case study, a refinery that is considered a critical process industry is assessed. Using the proposed model shows the efficient and inefficient DMUs in each of three states of normal, upset, and catastrophic events of the process and the projection onto efficient frontiers. Besides calculating the network efficiency, the performance of each state is extracted to precisely differentiate between DMUs. The results of this study, which is one of the fewest cases in the area of performance evaluation of process industries with a network approach, indicated a robust viewpoint for monitoring and assessment of risks.     

A review of the past,present and future of the European loss prevention and safety promotion in the process industries

In 2013, the European Federation of Chemical Engineering (EFCE) celebrates its 60th anniversary. EFCE has continually promoted scientific collaboration and supported the work of engineers and scientists in thirty European countries. As for its mission statement, EFCE helps European Society to meet its needs through highlighting the role of Chemical Engineering in delivering sustainable processes and products. Within this organizational framework the Loss Prevention Symposium series, organized throughout Europe on behalf of the Loss Prevention Working Party of the EFCE, represents a fruitful tradition covering a time span of forty years. The tri-annual symposium gathers experts and scientists to seek technical improvements and scientific support for a growingly safer industry and quality of life. Following the loss prevention history in this paper, a time perspective on loss prevention and its future is presented.     

A rising tide raises all boats: Regional promotion of process safety through joint government/industry management

With the development of increasingly complex processes and technologies in chemical and manufacturing industries, Process Safety Management (PSM) has been globally recognized as the primary tool for operating companies to reduce process accidents on their industrial sites and the risks posed to their employees and surrounding communities. Yet, industrial facilities are often interdependent and collocated with others. Recognizing this, regional authorities are also applying PSM principles to reduce the cumulative incidents associated with high density industrial areas and the multiplicative risks posed to broader communities. This paper compares Strathcona County Emergency Service (SCES) in Alberta, Contra Costa County Health Service Hazard Material Programs (CCCHSHMP) in California, and Technical Standards & Safety Authority (TSSA) in Ontario and their PSM systems to provide practical recommendations to improve SCES's system. Four aspects of PSM are considered: regulation and guidance, auditing and inspection, annual performance indicators, and public participation. Based on the results of this comparison, we recommend that SCES develop comprehensive PSM regulations based on CSA Z767-17 PSM including clear instructions for assessing technologies and methodologies for consequence analysis. Both worst-case scenarios and alternative scenarios need to be considered as well as the domino effect of primary accidents. Furthermore, regular audits and inspections will ensure compliance with PSM regulations while helping the design of planning, performing, and following-up strategies to ensure effectiveness. In addition, we suggest the use of lagging and leading performance indicators to evaluate the performance of the PSM program. Finally, we recommend using advisory councils or commissions to increase public participation and ensure the representation of stakeholders' perspectives with the PSM system.     

Optimization of test interval for ageing equipment: A multi-objective genetic algorithm approach

Reducing the unavailability of safety systems at nuclear power plants, by utilizing the probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) methodology, is one of the prime goals in the nuclear industry. In that sense, optimization of test and maintenance activities, which are defined within the technical specifications, represents quite popular and interesting domain. Obtaining optimal test and maintenance schedule is of great significance for improving system availability and performance as well as plant availability in general.On the other side, equipment aging has gradually become a major concern in the nuclear industry since the number of safety systems components, that are approaching their wear-out stage, is rising fast. Nuclear power plants life management programs, considering safety components aging, are being developed and employed. The immense uncertainty associated to the available component aging rates databases poses significant difficulties in the process of incorporation and quantification of the aging effect within the PSA and, subsequently, in the decision-making process.In this paper, an approach for optimization of surveillance test interval of standby equipment with highly uncertain aging parameters, based on genetic algorithm technique and PSA, is presented. A standard standby safety system in nuclear power plant is selected as a case study. A Monte Carlo simulation-based approach is used to assess uncertainty propagation on system level. Optimal test interval is derived on the basis of minimal system unavailability and minimal impact of components aging parameters uncertainty. The results obtained in this application indicate the fact that risk-informed surveillance requirements differ from existing ones in technical specifications as well as show the importance of considering aging data uncertainties in component aging modeling.     

Recent application of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in process safety and loss prevention: A review

In recent years, significant progress has been made to ensure that process industries are among the safest workplaces in the world. However, with the increasing complexity of existing technologies and new problems brought about by emerging technologies, a strong need still exists to study the fundamentals of process safety and predict possible scenarios. This is attained by conducting the corresponding consequence modeling and risk assessments. As a result of the continuous advancement of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) tools and exponentially increased computation capabilities along with better understandings of the underlying physics, CFD simulations have been applied widely in the areas of process safety and loss prevention to gain new insights, improve existing models, and assess new hazardous scenarios. In this review, 126 papers from 2010 to 2020 have been included in order to systematically categorize and summarize recent applications of CFD for fires, explosions, dispersions of flammable and toxic materials from accidental releases, incident investigations and reconstructions, and other areas of process safety. The advantages of CFD modeling are discussed and the future of CFD applications in this research area is outlined.     

A new approach to managing work-related road traffic injury: The development of a health investment framework

Objective: Statistics indicate that employees commuting or traveling as part of their work are overrepresented in workplace injury and death. Despite this, many organizations are unaware of the factors within their organizations that are likely to influence potential reductions in work-related road traffic injury.

Methods: This article presents a multilevel conceptual framework that identifies health investment as the central feature in reducing work-related road traffic injury. Within this framework, we explore factors operating at the individual driver, workgroup supervisor, and organizational senior management levels that create a mutually reinforcing system of safety.

Results: The health investment framework identifies key factors at the senior manager, supervisor, and driver levels to cultivating a safe working environment. These factors are high-performance workplace systems, leader–member exchange and autonomy, trust and empowerment, respectively. The framework demonstrates the important interactions between these factors and how they create a self-sustaining organizational safety system.

Conclusions: The framework aims to provide insight into the future development of interventions that are strategically aligned with the organization and target elements that facilitate and enhance driver safety and ultimately reduce work-related road traffic injury and death.     

The influence of alcohol on pedestrians: A different approach to the effectiveness of the new traffic safety law

Objective: The aim of this study was to explore the effects of the new traffic safety law on pedestrian mortality by exploring hazardous behaviors of pedestrians in terms of alcohol use and blood alcohol concentration (BAC).

Methods: A retrospective autopsy study was performed, covering a 7-year period (from 2006 to 2012), including cases of fatally injured pedestrians who died at the scene of the incident. Blood samples obtained from the femoral vein during autopsy were analyzed for BAC. The entire sample was divided into 2 groups. The first included cases from 2006 to 2009, at which time the old traffic safety law was in force, and the second included cases from 2010 to 2012, under the new traffic safety law.

Results: A total of 247 cases were examined, covering a 7-year period. The average age was 57.5 ± 19.7 years (median 61.0 years) with a significant male predominance of 147 men to 100 women. This predominance also applied to alcohol use (54 vs. 13). The results show a significant decrease in the total annual number of fatally injured pedestrians, starting from 2009, compared to previous years, reaching a low in 2010, one year after implementation of the new traffic safety law. In contrast, the proportion of alcohol-intoxicated pedestrians showed no significant difference in the years preceding and following the new traffic safety law, nor did the annual distribution of BAC or mean BAC before and after application of the new law.

Conclusion: The present study indicates that the new traffic safety law has been quite effective in reducing pedestrian mortality. However, alcohol consumption and intoxication in pedestrians remains a fairly important factor in motor vehicle accidents involving pedestrians, because the proportion of pedestrians positive for alcohol, the proportion of severely intoxicated pedestrians with BAC > 1 g/L, and annual mean BAC have remained unchanged.