晋陕两省入境旅游客源市场结构对比分析——基于SSM方法

基于SSM方法,选取2005—2010年入境旅游相关数据,对晋陕两省入境旅游客源市场发展态势和结构状况进行对比分析。结果表明,两省入境旅游总体发展速度都高于全国平均水平,且市场结构具有向集中化与多元化并存发展的相似性;两者相比,陕西省入境游客增长总量大于山西省,客源市场结构也更为合理,而山西省入境旅游客源市场相对增长率要大于陕西省,更具市场发展潜力。在此基础上,有针对性地提出进一步拓展晋陕两省入境旅游客源市场的相关建议。     

西藏入境旅游市场消费结构演化研究

把握入境旅游者的消费行为特征和消费结构特征,对目前西藏旅游业和区域经济实现可持续发展具有重要意义.以1997-2011年《中国旅游统计年鉴》和中国入境旅游者抽样调查资料为基础,对西藏入境旅游市场结构和消费结构演化特征进行分析,得出入境旅游消费结构不合理等相关结论,并在此基础上提出西藏入境旅游市场开发建议:加强旅游客源市场开发,及时调整旅游消费结构.     

我国入境旅游市场时空演变及其特征研究——基于国际对比的视角

改革开放以来,我国入境旅游业取得了令人瞩目的成绩,对发展我国旅游业、增加国家外汇储备和提升国家对外形象等起到了重要的作用。在全球国际旅游市场表现良好和亚洲一些重要旅游目的地快速增长的背景下,以入境旅游人次和国际旅游收入两大指标为基础,从时间轴和空间轴两大维度对包括中国在内的全球10大旅游目的地的入境旅游市场时空演化状况进行了对比,分析出中国入境旅游市场规模仍处于世界前列,旅游市场变动强度较小,客源市场规模差异合理和客源市场集中程度相对均衡等特征。     

三亚入境旅游客源市场结构及演化特征研究

分析入境客源市场结构及其演化特征,可为目的地旅游国际化水平提升提供研究支撑。基于2007—2016年三亚入境旅游客源市场数据,对三亚21个入境客源市场的地理集中度、亲景度、市场竞争态进行了分析。结果表明:三亚市近十年来入境旅游客源市场逐渐趋于分散,结构较稳定,多元化竞争格局逐步形成;主要入境旅游客源市场亲景度差异明显,但年际变化不大;洲内客源市场亲景度总体较稳定,洲际市场呈现平稳向好态势;入境客源市场竞争态以瘦狗市场和幼童市场为主,且出现明显的交替现象。在此基础上,进行三亚入境客源市场亲景度和市场竞争态的关联分析,发现两者相关性不强,最后就三亚入境旅游客源市场结构优化相关问题进行了探讨。     

韩国旅华客源市场研究

随着社会经济的发展和对外开放程度的提升,我国的入境旅游特别是周边国家的旅华市场得到了快速发展.韩国作为我国最大的客源国,研究其旅华客源市场状况,对于将我国打造成为国际一流的出境旅游目的地具有重要的意义.从韩国旅华客源市场发展历程入手,从市场规模、旅游消费支出、旅游目的及活动、游客构成情况、访问目的地、游客访问季节分布等多个方面分析了韩国旅华客源市场的发展现状.在对我国旅华游客旅游评价的基础上,针对韩国旅华市场开发中存在的问题提出了基于4P市场营销组合、基于旅游6要素发展措施的市场开发战略策划,以期为韩国及其他客源国(地区)旅游市场开发提供一定的参考与借鉴.     

我国滨海地区入境旅游流空间结构研究

以我国滨海11个省（市）1995--2011年17年间入境旅游资料为基础,从旅游流流量、旅游流客源地空间结构和旅游流目的地空间结构方面研究入境旅游流空间结构。结果显示,滨海省（市）入境旅游流流量一直呈现持续增长态势;滨海省（市）入境旅游外国客源市场的地理集中指数处于31—34．5之间,总体趋势减小;入境游客密度指数说明滨海地区入境旅游流目的地呈现明显的非均衡态势,整体上是从中心向两翼递减的空间格局。     

浙、台海洋旅游研究动态及两岸旅游合作新思维

素有"中国东海明珠"之称的浙江和台湾两地,拥有丰富的海洋旅游资源、旺盛的市场需求和较好的海洋旅游发展基础,逐渐成长为中国海洋旅游的国际目的地。梳理国内外对浙江、台湾两地海洋旅游资源、海洋旅游产品等方面研究发现:1浙江、台湾两地海洋自然旅游资源大同小异,但海洋人文旅游资源差异很大;2台湾在开发海洋旅游产品时更注重对海洋生态的保护,倡导永续生态文化旅游模式;3两地的海洋旅游开发正热,但都未深入开发,多停留在"观光"阶段。分析了浙江、台湾两地海洋旅游合作优势、现状与困境,探讨浙江、台湾两地开展海洋旅游合作新路径与政策机制创新,提出浙、台两地海洋旅游发展的优化合作环境建议。     

中日韩旅游服务贸易依存度与贡献度态势变化分析

中日韩是东亚地区三个经济发达、出入境旅游互动最为活跃的国家。依据1995—2016年的客流量与消费额数据,重新界定了旅游依存度与增长贡献度的概念,从三维互动的视角分析了三国旅游贸易依存度与增长贡献度的时空变化。结果发现:2008年之前,中国入境大于出境(顺差),对日韩的客源市场依存度高,日韩入境游客的花费对我国旅游增长贡献度大; 2009年之后,中国出境旅游异军突起,2012年后达到逆差(出境大于入境),日韩对我国出境旅游依存度显著增高,中国游客在日韩的高消费拉高了对日韩的增长贡献度;日韩旅游互动相对平稳,2010年前日本出境韩国客流量较大,此后随着我国出境旅游的快速崛起出现反转,日韩之间依存度下降,增长贡献度有所降低。     

基于Growth增长模型的成都入境旅游地域结构实证分析

随着全球化时代的来临,入境旅游成为评价一个城市国际化程度的重要指标。对入境旅游结构进行分析是推进入境旅游持续健康发展的重要方面。运用Growth增长模型从入境旅游的主体、地区、国别三个维度对成都入境旅游地域结构进行了实证分析,初步确定了成都入境旅游的目标地区与主要国家。在此基础上,针对性地提出了合理确立入境客源市场目标层、开展精准国际营销活动、建立国际化旅游服务标准体系、推进成都软硬件设施建设国际化等建议。     

2000—2019年中日国际旅游的反向性、市场翻转及成因

新世纪以来,世界旅游重心正在向亚太地区转移,中日国际旅游竞争更为激烈。以2000—2019年官方统计资料为依据,采用宏观分析与市场分析、实证分析与政策分析相结合的方法,分析了中日国际旅游的反向性及市场翻转现象。结果发现：(1)以2013年为分界点,中日国际旅游客流量及旅游收支呈现反向性,中国旅游贸易从顺差转向逆差且逆差迅速扩大;日本旅游贸易从逆差转向顺差且顺差不断扩大;(2)从主要国际客源市场的游客流向来看,2011年起客流转向出现明显的市场翻转,来自西欧、北美和澳大利亚的远程洲际游客,从偏向前往中国转向偏向日本旅游,并且该趋势仍在加强;韩国、泰国、新加坡、马来西亚等洲内市场,游客流向也从偏向入境中国转向偏向日本旅游;(3)从中日两国旅游互动来看,以2015年为分界点,中国出境日本旅游客流量增大,日本入境中国客流量减少,旅游互动呈现反向性;(4)产生此种国际旅游差额变化的反向性及主要客源市场的翻转,与两国旅游产业政策及环境卫生条件、旅游服务质量有关。因此,调整旅游产业政策、改善环境与卫生条件,提高旅游服务质量,将成为中国建成世界旅游强国的重要举措。     

Conversion of temperate forests into heaths: Role of ecosystem disturbance and ericaceous plants

Fire and logging in nutrient-poor temperate forests with certain ericaceous understory plants may convert the forests into heaths. The process of disturbance-induced heath formation is documented by using examples ofCalluna in western Europe,Kalmia in Newfoundland, andGaultheria (salal) in coastal British Columbia. In a cool, temperate climate, rapid vegetative growth ofCalluna, Kalmia, and salal following disturbance results in increasing organic accumulation (paludification), nutrient sequestration, soil acidification, and allelochemicals. These are thought to be the main reasons to conifer regeneration failure in disturbed habitats. If continuation in forest is a land-use objective, then temperate forests with an ericaceous understory should not be logged unless effective silvicultural methods are devised to control the ericaceous plants and restore forest regeneration. Preharvest vegetation control may be considered as an option. Failure to control the understory plants may lead to a long-term vegetation shift, from forest to heathland, particularly in nutrient-poor sites. Successful methods of controllingKalmia andGaultheria, however, have yet to be developed. While theKalmia- andGaultheria- dominated heathlands are undesirable in Canada and the Pacific Northwest, a wide range ofCalluna heathlands of western Europe are being conserved as natural and seminatural vegetation.     

Urban ecological systems: scientific foundations and a decade of progress

Urban ecological studies, including focus on cities, suburbs, and exurbs, while having deep roots in the early to mid 20th century, have burgeoned in the last several decades. We use the state factor approach to highlight the role of important aspects of climate, substrate, organisms, relief, and time in differentiating urban from non-urban areas, and for determining heterogeneity within spatially extensive metropolitan areas. In addition to reviewing key findings relevant to each state factor, we note the emergence of tentative "urban syndromes" concerning soils, streams, wildlife and plants, and homogenization of certain ecosystem functions, such as soil organic carbon dynamics. We note the utility of the ecosystem approach, the human ecosystem framework, and watersheds as integrative tools to tie information about multiple state factors together. The organismal component of urban complexes includes the social organization of the human population, and we review key modes by which human populations within urban areas are differentiated, and how such differentiation affects environmentally relevant actions. Emerging syntheses in land change science and ecological urban design are also summarized. The multifaceted frameworks and the growing urban knowledge base do however identify some pressing research needs.     

Neighbourhood characteristics and urban gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area: staffing and voluntarism,food production,infrastructure, and sustainability practices

Urban gardens are important sources of sustenance for communities with limited access to food. Hence, this study focuses on food production in gardens in the Toledo metropolitan area in Northwest Ohio. We administered surveys to 150 garden managers from November 2014 to February 2015 in our attempt to better understand how neighbourhood racial composition and poverty levels are related to staffing and voluntarism, food production and distribution, the development of infrastructure, and the adoption of sustainability practices in urban gardens. The results from 30 gardens are presented in this paper. We used Geographic Information Systems to map the gardens and overlay the map with 2010 census data so that we could conduct demographic analyses of the neighbourhoods in which the gardens were located. Though the gardens were small – two acres or less – up to 46 varieties of food were grown in a single garden. Gardens also operated on small budgets. Food from the gardens was gifted or shared with friends, family, and neighbourhood residents. Gardens in predominantly minority neighbourhoods tended to have fewer institutional partners, less garden infrastructure, and had adopted fewer sustainable practices than gardens in predominantly White neighbourhoods. Nonetheless, residents of predominantly minority and high-poverty neighbourhoods participated in garden activities and influenced garden operations. Volunteering and staffing were racialised and gendered.     

Using Paleo Reconstructions to Improve Streamflow Forecast Lead Time in the Western United States

In water stressed regions, water managers are exploring new horizons that would help in long‐range streamflow forecasts. Oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence streamflow variability. In this study, long‐lead time streamflow forecasts are made using a multiclass kernel‐based data‐driven support vector machine (SVM) model. The extended streamflow records based on tree ring reconstructions were used to provide a longer time series data. Reconstructed data were used from 1658 to 1952 and the instrumental record was used from 1953 to 2007. Reconstructions for oceanic‐atmospheric oscillations included the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. Streamflow forecasts using all four oscillations were made with one‐year to five‐year lead times for 21 gages in the western United States. This is the first study that uses both instrumental and reconstructed data of oscillations in SVM model to improve streamflow forecast lead time. SVM model was able to provide “satisfactory” to “very good” forecasts with one‐ to five‐year lead time for the selected gages. The use of all the oscillation indices helped in achieving better predictability compared to using individual oscillations. The SVM modeling results are better when compared with multiple linear regression model forecasts. The findings are statistical in nature and are expected to be useful for long‐term water resources planning and management.     

Predicting deer-vehicle collisions in an urban area

Collisions with deer and other large animals are increasing, and the resulting economic costs and risks to public safety have made mitigation measures a priority for both city and wildlife managers. We created landscape models to describe and predict deer-vehicle collision (DVCs) within the City of Edmonton, Alberta. Models based on roadside characteristics revealed that DVCs occurred frequently where roadside vegetation was both denser and more diverse, and that DVCs were more likely to occur when the groomed width of roadside right-of-ways was smaller. No DVCs occurred where the width of the vegetation-free or manicured roadside buffer was greater than 40 m. Landscape-based models showed that DVCs were more likely in more heterogeneous landscapes where road densities were lower and speed limits were higher, and where non-forested vegetation such as farmland was in closer proximity to larger tracts of forest. These models can help wildlife and transportation managers to identify locations of high collision frequency for mitigation. Modifying certain landscape and roadside habitats can be an effective way to reduce deer-vehicle collisions.     

AN APPLICATION RUNOFF MODEL STRATEGY FOR UNGAGED WATERSHEDS1

ABSTRACT: Mathematical models for predicting watershed surface flow responses are available, most of which are elaborate nonlinear numerical surface and channel flow models linked with infiltration models. Such models may be used to make predictions for ungaged areas, assuming an acceptable fitting of the model to the topography and roughness of the real system. For some application purposes, these models are impractical because of their complexity and expensive computer solutions. A procedure is developed that uses a complex model of an ungaged area to derive a simpler parametric nonlinear system model for repetitious simulation with input sequences. The predicted flow outputs are obtained with the simpler model at significant savings of money and time. The procedures for constructing a complex kinematic model of a 40 acre (161,880 m²) reference watershed and deriving the simpler system model are outlined. The results of predictions from both models are compared with a selected set of measured events, all having essentially the same initial conditions. Peak discharges ranged from 3 to 118 ft³/sec (0.085 to 3.34 m³/sec), which includes the largest event of record. The inherent limitations of lumped systems models are demonstrated, including the bias caused by their inability to model infiltration losses after rainfall ceases. Computer costs and times for the models were compared. The derived simple model has a cost advantage when repeated use of a model is required. Such an applications hydrologic model has an engineering tradeoff of reduced accuracy, and lumping bias, but is more economical for certain design purposes.     

MANGANESE CYCLE IN IMPOUNDMENT WATER

Manganese entering impounded water will undergo a cyclic transformation. Oxidation precipitates manganese from top waters. At the bottom of the lake, biological activity will render manganese soluble by both intracellular as well as extracellular activity. The study was made to demonstrate that biological reduction and transformation, organometallic complexation, together with the presence of carbon dioxide and the lowering of pH all have some effect on the solubility of manganese. Dissolved manganese may be brought back to top waters during the lake overturn and therefore deteriorates the water quality.     

Surface applied water treatment residuals affect bioavailable phosphorus losses in Florida sands

Water treatment residuals (WTR) can reduce runoff P loss and surface co-application of P-sources and WTR is a practical way of land applying the residuals. In a rainfall simulation study, we evaluated the effects of surface co-applied P-sources and an Al-WTR on runoff and leacheate bioavailable P (BAP) losses from a Florida sand. Four P-sources, namely poultry manure, Boca Raton biosolids (high water-soluble P), Pompano biosolids (moderate water-soluble P), and triple super phosphate (TSP) were surface applied at 56 and 224kgPha(-1) (by weight) to represent low and high soil P loads typical of P- and N-based amendments rates. The treatments further received surface applied WTR at 0 or 10gWTRkg(-1) soil. BAP loss masses were greater in leachate (16.4-536mg) than in runoff (0.91-46mg), but were reduced in runoff and leachate by surface applied WTR. Masses of total BAP lost in the presence of surface applied WTR were less than approximately 75% of BAP losses in the absence of WTR. Total BAP losses from each of the organic sources applied at N-based rates were not greater than P loss from TSP applied at a P-based rate. The BAP loss at the N-based rate of moderate water-soluble P-source (Pompano biosolids) was not greater than BAP losses at the P-based rates of other organic sources tested. The hazards of excess P from applying organic P-sources at N-based rates are not greater than observed at P-based rates of mineral fertilizer. Results suggest that management of the environmental P hazards associated with N-based rates of organic materials in Florida sands is possible by either applying P-sources with WTR or using a moderate water-soluble P-source.     

Sources and Transport of Phosphorus to Rivers in California and Adjacent States,U.S., as Determined by SPARROW Modeling

The SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regression on Watershed attributes) model was used to simulate annual phosphorus loads and concentrations in unmonitored stream reaches in California, U.S., and portions of Nevada and Oregon. The model was calibrated using de‐trended streamflow and phosphorus concentration data at 80 locations. The model explained 91% of the variability in loads and 51% of the variability in yields for a base year of 2002. Point sources, geological background, and cultivated land were significant sources. Variables used to explain delivery of phosphorus from land to water were precipitation and soil clay content. Aquatic loss of phosphorus was significant in streams of all sizes, with the greatest decay predicted in small‐ and intermediate‐sized streams. Geological sources, including volcanic rocks and shales, were the principal control on concentrations and loads in many regions. Some localized formations such as the Monterey shale of southern California are important sources of phosphorus and may contribute to elevated stream concentrations. Many of the larger point source facilities were located in downstream areas, near the ocean, and do not affect inland streams except for a few locations. Large areas of cultivated land result in phosphorus load increases, but do not necessarily increase the loads above those of geological background in some cases because of local hydrology, which limits the potential of phosphorus transport from land to streams.     

Animal Consciousness and Ethics in Asia and the Pacific

The interactions between humans, animals and the environment have shaped human values and ethics, not only the genes that we are made of. The animal rights movement challenges human beings to reconsider interactions between humans and other animals, and maybe connected to the environmental movement that begs us to recognize the fact that there are symbiotic relationships between humans and all other organisms. The first part of this paper looks at types of bioethics, the implications of autonomy and the value of being alive. Then the level of consciousness of these relationships are explored in survey results from Asia and the Pacific, especially in the 1993 International Bioethics Survey conducted in Australia, Hong Kong, India, Israel, Japan, New Zealand, The Philippines, Russia, Singapore and Thailand. Very few mentioned animal consciousness in the survey, but there were more biocentric comments in Australia and Japan; and more comments with the idea of harmony including humans in Thailand. Comparisons between questions and surveys will also be made, in an attempt to describe what people imagine animal consciousness to be, and whether this relates to human ethics of the relationships. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.