中国煤电企业环境压力测试

中国煤电行业的发展伴随着各种环境风险,本文以典型煤电企业为例,在产能过剩、能效标准提高、环境保护税、全国碳市场、水资源税和非水可再生能源规划目标的风险约束下,建立环境成本内部化和环境风险分析工具,考虑不同压力情境下对煤电企业价值的影响,构建环境风险影响财务成本的压力测试框架。结果表明,对单个风险而言,产能过剩和碳市场风险对企业价值的影响是大多数地区在不同情景中面临的主要风险驱动因素。对于综合风险压力测试而言,各地区1 000MW超超临界机组乐观情景及悲观情景的企业价值距合理回报预期企业价值相差小,而300MW和600MW亚临界机组因能效水平低、经营成本高等原因在环境风险压力下企业价值偏离合理回报较多。随着环境风险严重程度的不断增加,环境压力测试有助于煤电企业和金融机构了解环境风险对企业财务状况的影响,从而对投资决策产生影响。     

Reinsurer Opinions of Environmental Management Systems Concerning Insurance for Pollution

Despite an increasing interest in reinsurance and environmental manage ment systems (EMSs) concerning pollution, little research has been conducted on the subject. This paper presents the findings from a survey of reinsurers' views on this issue. Reinsurers give EMSs a cursory consideration in their pollution risk assessments because they inadequately appraise pollution liability, have no explicit requirements regarding risk management and there is little evidence to show that they are effective at reducing environmental risks. Reinsurers' underwriting assessments and post-loss investigations are poorly developed concerning public liability insurance. Reinsurance and EMSs are currently weak methods to prevent and control pollution risks.     

Environmental, developmental and financial risks of tropical timber plantation investment funds

This paper examines economic development and the environment within a market-based approach through financial instruments that incorporate a considerable array of risks. It investigates how financial markets combine finance and sustainable development by analyzing investment funds participating in tropical forest plantations. These funds project high expected returns and carry huge financial risks, especially country risk, price risk, and credit risk. Environmental and developmental risks do not appear to be very large, as most plantations are established on former farmland and as the quantitative impact of the plantations seems limited.     

Protecting asset value and driving performance with a dynamic,risk-based contingency fund

We present a risk-based contingency fund management methodology to mitigate the impact of external risks on asset value and performance. Many asset intensive industries, such as water and energy utilities, are significantly affected by external risks such as extreme weather events. We put the case for a centrally held risk-based contingency fund that would mitigate against ‘medium’ impact ‘medium’ probability events that fall outside of large losses covered by insurance and smaller ‘normal’ operating losses. Our risk-based contingency approach is appropriate for short-term business planning (1–5 years) and would complement longer term planning, for example climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Our approach offers a risk-based methodology to manage contingency that is explicit and defensible. Critically, our methodology allows contingency to be managed dynamically as risk probabilities and impacts change, creating a mechanism for contingency funds to be periodically released if risk exposure reduces. The long-term benefit of dynamic, risk-based contingency is to reduce the impact of external risks and support long-term sustainability.     

气候变化风险互联网络及系统性管理

气候变化风险能够在部门内与部门间进行传递和放大,形成多个复杂嵌套的风险互联网络,导致了系统性风险的产生。对气候变化风险互联网络的刻画能够帮助理解风险产生与演化的过程,削减气候变化对社会经济系统的直接物理风险,及碳达峰与碳中和建设过程中可能伴随的转型风险。本文识别了四类典型的气候变化风险互联网络,涵盖食品—能源—水系统、公共健康、宏观经济和金融市场、社会安全等四类部门或领域。针对每一类网络,分别总结了主要的气候变化风险传递路径及当前的研究进展和局限,并概述了开展系统性风险管理的建议。     

The prospects of tropical timber plantation investment funds

As financial markets start to acknowledge the significance of environmental issues, it is interesting to analyse how they combine finance and sustainable development. Dutch investment funds participating in tropical forest plantations project high expected returns. However, they carry huge financial risks, in particular country risk, currency risk, price risk and credit risk. The environmental and developmental returns appear to be positive but rather small. In addition, the environmental and developmental risks do not appear to be very large, as most plantations are established on former farmland and the quantitative impact of the plantations is still limited.     

Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios

A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.     

Risk management is part of good management

As the use of hazard and risk assessments becomes more commonplace, the need for and importance of an overall risk management system become apparent. Such a system allows companies to prioritize both their efforts to identify and understand risks and their allocation of resources to manage and control risks. In the future, the most effective risk management systems will be integrated into other business processes and management systems, to ensure that their value as well as their costs are recognized and measured by line operations. For example, chemical and petrochemical companies such as BP Exploration, Monsanto, and Union Carbide are improving on well-established risk management systems by increasing their businesses' involvement in and ownership of the process. This article summarizes the key elements of a risk management system and uses the lessons learned by various companies to define best existing and emerging practices.     

Risk-based economic decision analysis of remediation options at a PCE-contaminated site

Remediation methods for contaminated sites cover a wide range of technical solutions with different remedial efficiencies and costs. Additionally, they may vary in their secondary impacts on the environment i.e. the potential impacts generated due to emissions and resource use caused by the remediation activities. More attention is increasingly being given to these secondary environmental impacts when evaluating remediation options. This paper presents a methodology for an integrated economic decision analysis which combines assessments of remediation costs, health risk costs and potential environmental costs. The health risks costs are associated with the residual contamination left at the site and its migration to groundwater used for drinking water. A probabilistic exposure model using first- and second-order reliability methods (FORM/SORM) is used to estimate the contaminant concentrations at a downstream groundwater well. Potential environmental impacts on the local, regional and global scales due to the site remediation activities are evaluated using life cycle assessments (LCA). The potential impacts on health and environment are converted to monetary units using a simplified cost model.A case study based upon the developed methodology is presented in which the following remediation scenarios are analyzed and compared: (a) no action, (b) excavation and off-site treatment of soil, (c) soil vapor extraction and (d) thermally enhanced soil vapor extraction by electrical heating of the soil. Ultimately, the developed methodology facilitates societal cost estimations of remediation scenarios which can be used for internal ranking of the analyzed options. Despite the inherent uncertainties of placing a value on health and environmental impacts, the presented methodology is believed to be valuable in supporting decisions on remedial interventions.     

Options for management of municipal solid waste in New York City: a preliminary comparison of health risks and policy implications

Landfill disposal and waste-to-energy (WTE) incineration remain the two principal options for managing municipal solid waste (MSW). One critical determinant of the acceptability of these options is the different health risks associated with each. In this analysis relying on published data and exposure modeling, we have performed health risk assessments for landfill disposal versus WTE treatment options for the management of New York City's MSW. These are based on the realistic scenario of using a waste transfer station (WTS) in Brooklyn and then transporting the untreated MSW by truck to a landfill in Pennsylvania or using a WTE facility in Brooklyn and then transporting the resultant ash by truck to a landfill in Pennsylvania. The overall results indicate that the individual cancer risks for both options would be considered generally acceptable, although the risk from landfilling is approximately 5 times greater than from WTE treatment; the individual non-cancer health risks for both options would be considered generally unacceptable, although once again the risk from landfilling is approximately 5 times greater than from WTE treatment. If one considers only the population in Brooklyn that would be directly affected by the siting of either a WTS or a WTE facility in their immediate neighborhood, individual cancer and non-cancer health risks for both options would be considered generally acceptable, but risks for the former remain considerably higher than for the latter. These results should be considered preliminary due to several limitations of this study such as: consideration of risks only from inhalation exposures; assumption that only volume and not composition of the waste stream is altered by WTE treatment; reliance on data from the literature rather than actual measurements of the sites considered, assuming comparability of the sites. However, the results of studies such as this, in conjunction with ecological, socioeconomic and equity considerations, should prove useful to environmental managers, regulators, policy makers, community representatives and other stakeholders in making sound and acceptable decisions regarding the optimal handling of MSW.     

The evolving science of chemical risk assessment for land-applied biosolids

Biosolids, effluents, and manures are widely applied to agricultural land and other land with varying degrees of pretreatment or control. Regulations governing land application of biosolids take several broad forms in different countries, including limitations based on rates that do not lead to increases in background chemical concentrations or risk assessment approaches such as those used in the United States. Risk assessment is a process that is inherently limited by currently available information and practices, and consequently, risk-based land application limits must be reevaluated periodically. For complex mixtures such as biosolids, three principal categories of information will be affected by changing practices and scientific advances: (i) chemical constituents present in the material, (ii) the nature of expected exposures, and (iii) toxicity of the chemical constituents. New analytical methods and lower detection limits will affect chemical identification in wastes. Approaches to exposure assessment, such as increasing emphasis on probabilistic analyses, will continue to evolve, and exposure assumptions will change as new studies provide better data on factors such as soil ingestion, plant uptake of chemicals, and bioavailability of chemicals in soil. Similarly, toxicity assessments will be updated as new studies are conducted. The evolving science over the past decade is illustrated by comparing approaches used by the USEPA to assess human health and ecological risks for the Part 503 rule compared with the more recent evaluation of dioxins and related compounds in biosolids. While risks of chemicals in land-applied biosolids and other residuals need to be periodically re-evaluated, such re-evaluations may take forms other than full risk assessments.     

The Peconic River: Concerns associated with different risk evaluations for fish consumption

Risk evaluation and assessment have been used as tools to regulate and manage the risks to consumers of eating self-caught fish that have high levels of contaminants. Armed with these risk assessments, health agencies issue consumption advisories, and in some cases, close some waters to fishing. Recently, regulatory agencies have used contaminant levels in fish as a benchmark for remedial action on contaminated sites, using human health risk assessment as the justification. The US Environmental Protection Agency's new surface water criterion for mercury is based on mercury levels in fish tissue. When multiple regulatory agencies have jurisdiction over the same waters or remediation site there is the potential for differing risk evaluations. Using the Peconic River on Long Island, New York as a case study, the paper examines how and why county, state, and federal health risk evaluations for fish contaminated with mercury differed. While the same risk methodology was applied by all agencies, the assessments were conducted for different purposes, applied different consumption and fish biomass assumptions, and arrived at different conclusions. The risk evaluations invoked to design fish consumption advisories use mercury levels currently in fish, and are designed to prevent current exposure. However, the risk assessments that provide a basis for remediation consider many different pathways of exposure (not just ingestion), and deal with long-term exposure. The risk evaluations, and recommendations promulgated by those agencies, differ because they have different goals, use different assumptions, and often fail to communicate among agencies. It is suggested that it is valuable to have these different levels of risk evaluations to adequately address health issues. However, there are policy implications, which include making the distinctions between the types of risk assessments, their methods and assumptions, and the rationale for these assumptions. Further, assessors and managers should involve all interested stakeholders (including regulators and state health officials) in discussions about the use of risk, the assumptions of risk assessment, and the goals of those evaluations. The difficulties in the case of the Peconic were not due to differences in the original data, but rather in the goals and type of risk assessments performed. If all deliberations had been transparent during all phases of the decision-making and management process, the conflicts within the minds of the public, regulators and other agencies might have been avoided. This case study suggests that more reliability, circumspection and transparency should be built into the process where multiple agencies and multiple objectives are involved.     

Public-private partnerships: spreading the three Rs

The privatization of government services is a complex, long-term endeavor with significant contractual, financial, operational and political considerations. This article addresses the very different perspectives of government and business toward privatization and identifies areas for negotiation based on examples in the water, solid waste, housing, energy and telecommunications sectors. The article also addresses the fundamentals of privatization—risks, responsibilities and rewards—and the ways in which business and government assess and allocate (or spread) these elements. The article then stresses that each entity must move beyond these basic assessments to better appreciate the legitimate perspectives of their counterparts at the negotiating table. Only then may a critical blending of goals and expectations begin to emerge and form the foundation for a successful privatization programme.     

Beta estimates of shares on the JSE Top 40 in the context of reference-day risk

A topic of interest in the finance world is measuring systematic risk. Accurately measuring the systematic risk component—or Beta—of an asset or portfolio is important in many financial applications. In this work, we consider the efficiency of a range of Beta estimation methods commonly used in practice from a reference-day risk perspective. We show that, when using the industry standard data sample of 5 years of monthly returns, the choice of reference-day used to calculate underlying returns has a significant impact on all of the Beta estimation methods considered. Driven by this finding, we propose and test an alternative nonparametric bootstrap approach for calculating Beta estimates which is unaffected by reference-day risk. Our primary goal is to determine a point-estimate of Beta, independent of reference-day.     

Risk perception, risk communication, and stakeholder involvement for biosolids management and research

An individual's perception of risk develops from his or her values, beliefs, and experiences. Social scientists have identified factors that affect perceptions of risk, such as whether the risk is knowable (uncertainty), voluntary (can the individual control exposure?), and equitable (how fairly is the risk distributed?). There are measurable differences in how technical experts and citizen stakeholders define and assess risk. Citizen knowledge and technical expertise are both relevant to assessing risk; thus, the 2002 National Research Council panel on biosolids recommended stakeholder involvement in biosolids risk assessments. A survey in 2002 identified some of the factors that influence an individual's perception of the risks involved in a neighbor's use of biosolids. Risk communication was developed to address the gap between experts and the public in knowledge of technical topics. Biosolids management and research may benefit from applications of current risk communication theory that emphasizes (i) two-way communications (dialogue); (ii) that the public has useful knowledge and concerns that need to be acknowledged; and (iii) that what may matter most is the credibility of the purveyor of information and the levels of trustworthiness, fairness, and respect that he or she (or the organization) demonstrates, which can require cultural change. Initial experiences in applying the dialogue and cultural change stages of risk communication theory--as well as consensus-building and joint fact-finding--to biosolids research suggest that future research outcomes can be made more useful to decision-makers and more credible to the broader public. Sharing control of the research process with diverse stakeholders can make research more focused, relevant, and widely understood.     

Design considerations for financing a national trust to advance the deployment of geologic CO2 storage and motivate best practices

This paper explores how the widely held public policy view of the evolution of the risk profile associated with geologic carbon dioxide (CO₂) storage profoundly influences the public policy dialogue about how to best address the long-term risk profile for geologic storage. Evidence emerging from research and pilot scale field demonstrations of CO₂ storage demonstrates that, with proper site characterization and sound operating practices, retention of stored CO₂ will increase with time thus invalidating the premise of an ever growing risk. The authors focus on key issues of fit, interplay, and scalability associated with the ability of a trust fund funded by a hypothetical $1 per tonCO₂ tipping fee for each ton of CO₂ stored in the United States under WRE450 and WRE550 climate policies to manage such risks in an economically efficient and environmentally effective manner. The authors conclude there is no intrinsic value – in terms of risk management or risk reduction – in creating a trust fund predicated solely on collecting a universally applied tipping fee that does not take into account site-specific risk profiles. If left to grow unchecked, a trust fund that is predicated on a constant stream of payments unrelated to each contributing site's risk profile could result in the accumulation of hundreds of billions to more than a trillion dollars contributing to significant opportunity cost of capital. Further, rather than mitigating the financial consequences of long-term CCS risks, this analysis suggests a blanket $1 per tonCO₂ tipping fee, if combined with a concomitant limitation of liability may increase the probability and frequency of long-term risk by eliminating financial incentives for sound operating behavior and site selection criteria—contribute to moral hazard. At a minimum, effective use of a trust fund requires: (1) strong oversight regarding site selection and fund management, and (2) a clear process by which the fund is periodically valued and funds collected are mapped to the risk profile of the pool of covered CCS sites. Without appropriate checks and balances, there is no a priori reason to believe that the amount of funds held in trust will map to the actual amount of funds needed to address long-term care expenses and delimited compensatory damages. For this reason, the authors conclude that financing a trust fund or other risk management instrument should be based on a site delimited estimate of potential future expected financial consequences rather than on the random adoption of a fixed funding stream, e.g., a blanket $1 per ton, because it “sounds” reasonable.     

Comparative risk analysis for metropolitan solid waste management systems

Conventional solid waste management planning usually focuses on economic optimization, in which the related environmental impacts or risks are rarely considered. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the methodology of how optimization concepts and techniques can be applied to structure and solve risk management problems such that the impacts of air pollution, leachate, traffic congestion, and noise increments can be regulated in the long-term planning of metropolitan solid waste management systems. Management alternatives are sequentially evaluated by adding several environmental risk control constraints stepwise in an attempt to improve the management strategies and reduce the risk impacts in the long run. Statistics associated with those risk control mechanisms are presented as well. Siting, routing, and financial decision making in such solid waste management systems can also be achieved with respect to various resource limitations and disposal requirements.     

A human health assessment of hazardous air pollutants in Portland, OR

Ambient air samples collected from five monitoring sites in Portland, OR during July 1999 to August 2000 were analyzed for 43 hazardous air pollutants (HAP). HAP concentrations were compared to carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic benchmark levels. Carcinogenic benchmark concentrations were set at a risk level of one-in-one-million (1x10(-6)). Hazard ratios of 1.0 were used when comparing HAP concentrations to non-carcinogenic benchmarks. Emission sources (point, area, and mobile) were identified and a cumulative cancer risk and total hazard index were calculated for HAPs exceeding these health benchmark levels. Seventeen HAPs exceeded a cancer risk level of 1x10(-6) at all five monitoring sites. Nineteen HAPs exceeded this level at one or more site. Carbon tetrachloride, 1,3-butadiene, formaldehyde, and 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane contributed more than 50% to the upper-bound lifetime cumulative cancer risk of 2.47x10(-4). Acrolein was the only non-carcinogenic HAP with hazard ratios that exceeded 1.0 at all five sites. Mobile sources contributed the greatest percentage (68%) of HAP emissions. Additional monitoring and health assessments for HAPs in Portland, OR are warranted, including addressing issues that may have overestimated or underestimated risks in this study. Abatement strategies for HAPs that exceeded health benchmarks should be implemented to reduce potential adverse health risks.     

Critical Risk Indicators (CRIs) for the electric power grid: a survey and discussion of interconnected effects

The electric power grid is a critical societal resource connecting multiple infrastructural domains such as agriculture, transportation, and manufacturing. The electrical grid as an infrastructure is shaped by human activity and public policy in terms of demand and supply requirements. Further, the grid is subject to changes and stresses due to diverse factors including solar weather, climate, hydrology, and ecology. The emerging interconnected and complex network dependencies make such interactions increasingly dynamic, posing novel risks, and presenting new challenges to manage the coupled human–natural system. This paper provides a survey of models and methods that seek to explore the significant interconnected impact of the electric power grid and interdependent domains. We also provide relevant critical risk indicators (CRIs) across diverse domains that may be used to assess risks to electric grid reliability, including climate, ecology, hydrology, finance, space weather, and agriculture. We discuss the convergence of indicators from individual domains to explore possible systemic risk, i.e., holistic risk arising from cross-domain interconnections. Further, we propose a compositional approach to risk assessment that incorporates diverse domain expertise and information, data science, and computer science to identify domain-specific CRIs and their union in systemic risk indicators. Our study provides an important first step towards data-driven analysis and predictive modeling of risks in interconnected human–natural systems.

     

Public and occupational risks of the Nevada (USA) Test Site

The Nevada Test Site (NTS), north of Las Vegas, was the scene of hundreds of nuclear weapons tests over four decades, both above- and belowground. There is considerable interest, both in neighboring communities and elsewhere, in the risks it poses. Overall, the greatest risks are nonradioactive in origin, with occupational risks to employees and accident risks in transporting low-level nuclear wastes to the NTS from other Department of Energy (DOE) sites ranking highest. For radiation risks, that to workers handling radioactive materials is much higher than that to the surrounding population, either present or future. Overall, annual risks are small, with all fatalities approximately 0.008% of total Nevada deaths. At the NTS, the government spends about 5000 times more on radiation as opposed to nonradiation deaths. This suggests that at least some resources may be misallocated towards cleanup of public risks and that the occupational risk of cleanup may be much higher than the public risk. Thus risk may be multiplied by well-meaning programs.