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1.
This paper is concerned with the cost efficiency in achieving the Swedish national air quality objectives under uncertainty.
To realize an ecologically sustainable society, the parliament has approved a set of interim and long-term pollution reduction
targets. However, there are considerable quantification uncertainties on the effectiveness of the proposed pollution reduction
measures. In this paper, we develop a multivariate stochastic control framework to deal with the cost efficiency problem with
multiple pollutants. Based on the cost and technological data collected by several national authorities, we explore the implications
of alternative probabilistic constraints. It is found that a composite probabilistic constraint induces considerably lower
abatement cost than separable probabilistic restrictions. The trend is reinforced by the presence of positive correlations
between reductions in the multiple pollutants.
相似文献
Chuan-Zhong LiEmail: |
2.
Global Warming Potential (GWP) is an index used to measure the cumulative radiative forcing of a tonne of greenhouse house
gas (GHG) relative to that of a ‘reference’ gas (CO2). Under the Kyoto Protocol, GWP can be used as a fixed index to govern the trade-off between different GHGs in a multi-gas approach to GHGs abatement. The use of fixed GWPs has
been criticized for not being very cost effective compared to the use of some flexible indices. To gain wider acceptance, however, a flexible index must also prove to be easy to use, and the economic gains from
its adoption must be significant. In this paper, we develop a flexible index based on the concept of marginal rather than cumulative or average global warming potentials. These marginal global warming potentials (MGWPs) can be endogenously
determined within a climate model given a particular climate objective based on radiative forcing level. The MGPWs are then
linked to the marginal abatement costs of the GHGs, which are also endogenously determined within an economic model. When
the two concepts are linked in this way, the result is a cost-effective way of achieving a particular climate change objective
with multigas abatement. We show that the savings in costs when using this flexible MGPWs can be significant, and more importantly,
they are not uniformly distributed across different regions.
相似文献
Claudia KemfertEmail: |
3.
This paper offers an interpretation of the precautionary principle in terms of a safety target that a decision-maker has to
reach at a minimal cost in a robust way. A two-period model is used. The precautionary principle corresponds to a situation
in which the decision-maker, facing an ex ante indecision, is not able to reach a safe target from the initial condition in a worst-case framework. However, he can efficiently
succeed whenever the uncertainty at the second period is revealed to him. An example coping with the management of a renewable
resource illustrates the general results of the paper.
相似文献
Jean-Christophe PereauEmail: |
4.
We derive conditions that must be satisfied by the primitives of the problem in order for an equilibrium in linear Markov
strategies to exist in some common property natural resource differential games. These conditions impose restrictions on the
admissible form of the natural growth function, given a benefit function, or on the admissible form of the benefit function,
given a natural growth function.
相似文献
Gérard GaudetEmail: |
5.
This paper analyses the evolution of water consumption in Milan during the twentieth century. However, dealing with a century
time series raises some complicated statistic and econometric issues. To study the main research questions outlined by the
literature, as the presence of consumption habits and the link between consumption and price, we use a quite original approach
– based on intervention analysis and principal component analysis (PCA) – which seems to be more adequate than “regression-type”
approaches to study a so long time series. Results indicate (1) how some events have modified the normal evolution of per-capita
water consumption; (2) that per-capita water consumption is a very persistent series, namely, that water users should have
well-developed consumption habits; (3) that per-capita consumption and water price present a strong negative correlation.
相似文献
Mario NosvelliEmail: |
6.
Wen-Cheng Liu Jan-Tai Kuo Chih-Chieh Young Ming-Ching Wu 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2007,12(3):201-211
Numerical models are often used to evaluate the potential impact of human alternation of natural water bodies and to help
the design of the alternation to mitigate its impacts. In the past decade, three-dimensional hydrodynamic and reactive transport
modeling has matured from a research subject to a practical analysis technology. This paper presents a practical study in
which a three-dimensional hydrodynamic and water quality model [hydrodynamic eutrophication model (HEM-3D)] was applied to
determine the optimal location for treated wastewater discharged from marine outfall system in the Keelung harbor and the
adjacent coastal sea. First, model validation was conducted with respect to surface elevation, current, and water quality
variables measured in the Keelung harbor station and its coastal sea. The overall performance of the model was in qualitative
agreement with the available field data. The model was then used to evaluate several scenarios of the locations from marine
outfall system. Based on model simulation results, a location at the northeast of Ho-Ping Island was recommended for adoption
because the environmental impact is smaller than any other alternative.
相似文献
Wen-Cheng LiuEmail: |
7.
Kerstin Ronneberger Maria Berrittella Francesco Bosello Richard S. J. Tol 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2009,14(2):149-168
In this paper, the global agricultural land use model Kleines Land Use Model is coupled to an extended version of the computable general equilibrium model (CGE) Global Trade Analysis
Project in order to consistently assess the integrated impacts of climate change on global cropland allocation and its implication
for economic development. The methodology is innovative as it introduces dynamic economic land-use decisions based also on
the biophysical aspects of land into a state-of-the-art CGE; it further allows the projection of resulting changes in cropland
patterns on a spatially more explicit level. A convergence test and illustrative future simulations underpin the robustness
and potentials of the coupled system. Reference simulations with the uncoupled models emphasise the impact and relevance of
the coupling; the results of coupled and uncoupled simulations can differ by several hundred percent.
相似文献
Francesco BoselloEmail: Email: |
8.
M. Kashir K. Zhang G. Achari R. G. Moore S. A. Mehta M. G. Ursenbach 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2008,13(2):265-274
A 2-D mathematical model to simulate the temperature distribution, coke formation, and change in residual extractable oil
during remediation by low-temperature oxidation (LTO) process was developed. Simulation results indicate that the spacing
between wells, pressure difference, and air-injection temperature and different well patterns influence the temperature distribution
and consequently the level of remediation in the soil. The model results for coke formation and residual extractable oil distribution
compared well with experimental results. The operating conditions—air-injection temperature of about 200°C, air-injection
pressure of 6 to 10 kPa, air-extraction pressure of −110 Pa, and wells spaced 1 m apart installed in a nine-spot pattern—provide
good remediation of hydrocarbons in soil by LTO process.
相似文献
G. AchariEmail: |
9.
This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate
change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular
focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate–economy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between
50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and
the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback
of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at
least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century.
4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions,
is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth.
相似文献
Stéphane HallegatteEmail: |
10.
I. V. Emelyanova G. E. Donald D. J. Miron D. A. Henry M. G. Garner 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2009,14(4):449-465
A probabilistic Bayesian method called weights of evidence (WofE) was used to develop a synthetic dataset of cattle farm locations at a national scale across Australia. The synthetic
dataset was required for the modelling of livestock movements with a view to assessing biosecurity implications. The WofE method is based on the analysis of spatial relationships between evidential patterns with respect to an event, such
as the actual location of a farm. The evidential patterns of cattle farms were derived from maps of land use, land tenure,
drainage systems, roads, settlements and long-term averaged rainfall. These evidential patterns were used for delineating
and ranking land areas suitable for cattle farming. For each evidential pattern statistics such as a positive weight, a negative weight and a contrast were calculated for estimating the degree of correlation between the evidential patterns and known farm locations. The integrated
evidential patterns of known farms were then used for estimating posterior probabilities and splitting land into five different
classes according to its suitability for farming.
相似文献
I. V. EmelyanovaEmail: |
11.
A Global Model Tracking Water, Nitrogen, and Land Inputs and Virtual Transfers from Industrialized Meat Production and Trade 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Marshall Burke Kirsten Oleson Ellen McCullough Joanne Gaskell 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2009,14(2):179-193
Rising populations and incomes throughout the world have boosted meat demand by over 75% in the last 20years, intensifying
pressures on production systems and the natural resources to which they are linked. As a growing proportion of global meat
production is traded, the environmental impacts of production become increasingly separated from where the meat is consumed.
In this paper, we quantify the use of three important resources associated with industrial livestock production and trade—water,
land, and nitrogen—using a country-specific model that combines trade, agronomic, biogeochemical, and hydrological data. Our
model focuses on pigs and chickens, as these animals are raised predominantly in intensive systems using concentrated, compound
feeds. The results describe the geographical patterns of environmental resource use due to meat production, trade, and consumption.
We show that US feed, animal, and meat destined for export require almost as much nitrogen and land, and 20% more water, than
products destined for domestic consumption. Model results also demonstrate that among various production factors, improvements
in crop yields and animal feed conversion efficiencies result in the most significant reductions in environmental harm. By
explicitly tracking the externalities of meat production, we hope to bolster suppliers’ accountability and provide better
information to meat consumers.
相似文献
Kirsten OlesonEmail: |
12.
N. Moussiopoulos Ph. Barmpas I. Ossanlis J. Bartzis 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2008,13(3):357-368
Towards the aim of improving the air quality in the urban environment via the application of innovative TiO2 based photocatalytic coverings, a field campaign took place within the frame of the EU PICADA project () to asses the expected depollution efficiency of such materials under realistic conditions. Furthermore, extensive numerical
modeling was performed via the application of the RANS CFD code for microscale applications MIMO, in an effort to asses the
sensitivity of the developing flow field and the corresponding dispersion mechanism and hence of the depollution efficiency
of the PICADA products on a wide range of factors, with most notably the length of the street canyon, the thermal exchange
between the heated street canyon walls and the air and the approaching wind direction. For the needs of the PICADA project
a new, simple module had to be implemented into MIMO to be able to model the removal of NOx from a street canyon whose walls have been treated with a photocatalytic product. The model simulations results presented
in this paper, show that MIMO is indeed capable of predicting the effectiveness of the photocatalytic products in question.
At the same time, they reveal a strong dependence of the developing flow and concentration fields inside the field site street
canyon configuration on most of the aforementioned factors with most notably the direction of the approaching wind.
相似文献
N. MoussiopoulosEmail: |
13.
The sensitivity of an integrated model to assess the potential for wind-borne spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) to variations
in key parameters controlling different physical and biological processes was evaluated. The estimated number of farms at
risk is sensitive to the virus strain used and the accompanying effective contact rate. The C Noville strain increased the
estimated number of exposed farms ranked as high and medium risk of being infected by a factor of 5, compared to the baseline,
based on the O UKG 2001 strain. The inclusion of a model for biological ageing of the virus can also have a significant effect
on the concentration patterns arising from transport and dispersion of the virus. Its inclusion has the practical advantage
of markedly reducing the time required for the calculations. The estimated number of farms affected by exposure to high and
medium virus concentrations is not grossly sensitive to attenuation caused by temperature or relative humidity effects. Changes
in susceptibility to infection, as determined by the parameter θ in the exposure-risk model, does not change the configuration of the virus plumes, but it does change the distribution of
farms at risk by risk category. These findings suggest that a good understanding of characteristics (excretion rates from
infected animals, susceptibility of different species to infection, virus survival, etc.) of the virus strain involved in
an FMD outbreak is necessary to provide a reliable assessment of the risk of wind-borne spread. In the event of an incursion
of FMD, provision for laboratory studies on the virus will be an essential component of the disease response and should be
factored into contingency plans.
相似文献
X. YangEmail: |
14.
Geological CO2 capture and storage (CCS) is among the main near-term contenders for addressing the problem of global climate change. Even
in a baseline scenario, with no comprehensive international climate policy, a moderate level of CCS technology is expected
to be deployed, given the economic benefits associated with enhanced oil and gas recovery. With stringent climate change control,
CCS technologies will probably be installed on an industrial scale. Geologically stored CO2, however, may leak back to the atmosphere, which could render CCS ineffective as climate change reduction option. This article
presents a long-term energy scenario study for Europe, in which we assess the significance for climate policy making of leakage
of CO2 artificially stored in underground geological formations. A detailed sensitivity analysis is performed for the CO2 leakage rate with the bottom-up energy systems model MARKAL, enriched for this purpose with a large set of CO2 capture technologies (in the power sector, industry, and for the production of hydrogen) and storage options (among which
enhanced oil and gas recovery, enhanced coal bed methane recovery, depleted fossil fuel fields, and aquifers). Through a series
of model runs, we confirm that a leakage rate of 0.1%/year seems acceptable for CCS to constitute a meaningful climate change
mitigation option, whereas one of 1%/year is not. CCS is essentially no option to achieve CO2 emission reductions when the leakage rate is as high as 1%/year, so more reductions need to be achieved through the use of
renewables or nuclear power, or in sectors like industry and transport. We calculate that under strict climate control policy,
the cumulative captured and geologically stored CO2 by 2100 in the electricity sector, when the leakage rate is 0.1%/year, amounts to about 45,000 MtCO2. Only a little over 10,000 MtCO2 cumulative power-generation-related emissions are captured and stored underground by the end of the century when the leakage
rate is 1%/year. Overall marginal CO2 abatement costs increase from a few €/tCO2 today to well over 150 €/tCO2 in 2100, under an atmospheric CO2 concentration constraint of 550 ppmv. Carbon costs in 2100 turn out to be about 40 €/tCO2 higher when the annual leakage rate is 1%/year in comparison to when there is no CO2 leakage. Irrespective of whether CCS deployment is affected by gradual CO2 seepage, the annual welfare loss in Europe induced by the implementation of policies preventing “dangerous anthropogenic
interference with the climate system” (under our assumption, implying a climate stabilisation target of 550 ppmv CO2 concentration) remains below 0.5% of GDP during the entire century.
相似文献
Koen SmekensEmail: |
15.
Madbuli H. Noweir Ahmad A. Moreb Abdullah O. Bafail 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》1996,40(3):225-237
The present work was conducted to define the magnitude of the problem of heat exposure in Jeddah and the role of both the climatic and the industrial factors on the total heat load. Indoor heat exposure was studied in an industrial complex of 5 plants for cables' manufacturing. Outdoor heat exposure was studied in shaded and unshaded operations in Jeddah Islamic Port (JIP). The heat exposure parameters, including air temperature (Ta), wet bulb temperature (Tw), and globe temperature (Tg), as well as the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) heat stress index, the relative humidity and the air velocity, were assessed at representative locations. Results of the study indicated that:
An outline of a control strategy has been suggested, emphasizing evaporative engineering heat control, work and hygienic practices and auxiliary cooling clothing. 相似文献
(a) | the levels of heat exposure exceeded the TLV in mostly all the work areas where no air-conditioning is provided. |
(b) | the ambient heat is the factor contributing most to the heat load both in summer and in winter. |
(c) | the radiant heat from furnaces and hot metal rolling and milling adds more heat load to the work environment in specific operations. |
16.
Xiuzhen Che Alex English Jia Lu Yongqin David Chen 《Environmental Impact Assessment Review》2011,31(6):561-571
The enactment and implementation of the 2003 EIA Law in China institutionalised the role of plan environmental impact assessment (PEIA). While the philosophy, methodology and mechanisms of PEIA have gradually permeated through the various levels of government with a positive effect on the process and outcome of urban planning, only a few cities in China have so far carried out PEIA as a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA)-type procedure. One such case is the southern city of Shenzhen. During the past three decades, Shenzhen has grown from a small town to a large and booming city as China has successfully and rapidly developed its economy by adopting the “reform and open door” policy. In response to the challenges arising from the generally divergent processes of rapid urbanisation, economic transformation and environment protection, Shenzhen has incrementally adopted the SEA concept in developing the city's Master Urban Plan. As such, this paper reviews the effectiveness of PEIA in three ways:
•
as a tool and process for achieving more sustainable and strategic planning; •
to determine the level of integration of SEA within the planning system; and, •
its effectiveness vis-à-vis implementation.
17.
18.
Many governments use technology incentives as an important component of their greenhouse gas abatement strategies. These carrots are intended to encourage the initial diffusion of new, greenhouse-gas-emissions-reducing technologies, in contrast to carbon taxes and emissions trading which provide a stick designed to reduce emissions by increasing the price of high-emitting technologies for all users. Technology incentives appear attractive, but their record in practice is mixed and economic theory suggests that in the absence of market failures, they are inefficient compared to taxes and trading. This study uses an agent-based model of technology diffusion and exploratory modeling, a new technique for decision-making under conditions of extreme uncertainty, to examine the conditions under which technology incentives should be a key building block of robust climate change policies. We find that a combined strategy of carbon taxes and technology incentives, as opposed to carbon taxes alone, is the best approach to greenhouse gas emissions reductions if the social benefits of early adoption sufficiently exceed the private benefits. Such social benefits can occur when economic actors have a wide variety of cost/performance preferences for new technologies and either new technologies have increasing returns to scale or potential adopters can reduce their uncertainty about the performance of new technologies by querying the experience of other adopters. We find that if decision-makers hold even modest expectations that such social benefits are significant or that the impacts of climate change will turn out to be serious then technology incentive programs may be a promising hedge against the threat of climate change. 相似文献
19.
Nobuyuki Takashima 《Environmental Modeling and Assessment》2017,22(4):345-361
This study provides a new framework for international environmental agreements (IEAs), which include punishment exceptions for accidental deviation, using repeated games. We consider that deviation from an agreement can occur accidentally because of phenomena such as natural disasters, even if the agreement is sustained as a weakly renegotiation-proof equilibrium. If an IEA signatory deviates accidentally, it fails to achieve its emission abatement target. In the repeated game, a cooperative relationship among signatories is sustained by a strategy that prescribes rules of cooperation and punishment for deviation. We present a new strategy, called Regional Cooperative, which integrates accidental deviations into an IEA. Our model reveals that punishing countries tend to revoke the punishment of deviators and return to cooperation if an accidental deviator increases its abatement volume. That is, the abatement efforts of the accidental deviator can lead to renegotiation. The Regional Cooperative strategy motivates the accidental deviator to try to engage in abatement and the punishing countries to restart cooperation by renegotiation. We conclude that social welfare loss by punishment is prevented through renegotiation in cases of accidental deviation. 相似文献
20.
P. Mountapmbeme-Kouotou S. Laminsi E. Acayanka J.-L. Brisset 《Environmental monitoring and assessment》2013,185(7):5789-5800
The gliding electric discharge in humid air is a source of activated species forming (e.g. ? OH, ? NO and their derivatives H2O2, ONO2H and NO3H) which are present in a non-thermal plasma at atmospheric pressure. These species are able to degrade organic pollutants in palm oil refinery wastewaters (PORW). The increase in acidity (pH decrease), conductivity and total dissolved solids (TDS) and the decrease in the total organic carbon (TOC) of PORW samples exposed to the discharge are reported. More than 50 % TOC abatement is obtained for 15 min treatment in batch conditions with a laboratory reactor. The organic pollutants of PORW, i.e. mainly fatty acids are degraded according to a pseudo first-order reaction (k*?=?0.06 min?1). Post discharge reactions are also observed after having switched off the discharge, which suggests that the pseudo first-order (k?≈?0.05 min?1) degradation reactions should be attributed to the diffusion of soluble reactive species, e.g. H2O2 and ONOOH in the liquid target. 相似文献