基于混合生命周期评价模型的我国食物系统水资源消耗及二氧化碳排放核算

食物生产不仅依赖水资源,同时产生大量二氧化碳排放,这种资源环境影响存在于食物系统整个产业链。为促进食物系统节水降碳,本文构建了包含5大类共23种具体食物部门的混合生命周期评价模型,对各类食物系统的完全水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放进行了核算与比较。结果表明：(1)不同食物的水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放差异明显,动物性食物的平均水资源消耗和二氧化碳排放强度分别为植物性食物的1.9～15.0倍和1.9～2.7倍;(2)食物系统直接和间接水资源消耗占比较为接近,但二氧化碳排放主要源自上游产业链的间接排放,占比高达80.9%;(3)食物系统间接水资源消耗主要来自农业部门,而间接碳排放主要来自电力生产和供应业、基础化工原料制造业、非金属矿产品行业和交通运输业;(4)从营养元素供给看,动物性食物提供蛋白质和脂肪的资源环境影响高于植物性食物,蔬菜和主食分别在提供维生素C和碳水化合物上具有最小的环境成本。基于本文结果,食物系统节水应主要提高生产环节用水效率,而降碳则主要依靠上游产业减排,特别是发电和化肥生产等行业的协同节水减碳潜力。同时,本文结果也可为未来基于环境影响制定膳食指南提供数据支撑。     

The benefits and costs of reducing emissions from the electricity sector

Recent federal policy proposals to reduce emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), nitrogen oxides (NO(x)), and mercury from the US electricity sector promise important improvements in air quality and reductions in acid deposition. The cost of achieving these reductions depends on the form and stringency of the regulation. In this research, we analyze the economic benefits and costs of the US Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) as characterized in the supplemental rule proposed in June 2004, and the Clean Air Mercury Rule (CAMR) as proposed in February 2004. The assessment integrates a model of the electricity sector, two models of atmospheric transport of air pollutants, and a model of environmental and public health endpoints affected by pollution. We model explicitly the emissions of SO(2), NO(x), mercury and carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and the effects of changes in emissions of SO(2) and NO(x) on environmental and public health. The manner in which mercury emissions are regulated will have important implications not only for the cost of the regulation, but also for emission levels for SO(2) and NO(x) and where those emissions are located. We find the economic benefits of CAIR and CAMR are far greater than the costs. Recent estimates of benefits of reductions in mercury and acidification indicate that our model captures the lion's share of quantifiable benefits. We also find that the EPA would have been justified on economic grounds in pursuing additional SO(2) emissions reductions beyond the requirements of CAIR.     

The cost of crop damage caused by ozone air pollution from motor vehicles

The effects of ozone air pollution on the agricultural sector are an important environmental challenge facing policy makers. Most studies of the economic impact of air pollution on agriculture have found that a 25% reduction in ambient ozone would provide benefits of at least $1–2 billion annually in the United States. This paper extends existing research by estimating the benefits of a reduction in emissions from a major source of ozone formation: motor-vehicle emissions. An agricultural production model is combined with an analysis of motor-vehicle emissions and air quality to estimate the impacts of emissions from six different motor-vehicle classes, at both the regional and national level. The benefits to the agricultural sector from completely eliminating ozone precursor emissions from motor vehicles ranges between $3·5 and $6·1 billion annually.     

Linking climate policy across economic sectors: A case for green growth in Nepal

While the energy sector is the largest global contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the agriculture, forestry, and other land use (AFOLU) sector account for up to 80% of GHG emissions in the least developed countries (LDCs). Despite this, the nationally determined contributions (NDCs) of LDCs, including Nepal, focus primarily on climate mitigation in the energy sector. This paper introduces green growth—a way to foster economic growth while ensuring access to resources and environmental services—as an approach to improving climate policy coherence across sectors. Using Nepal as a case country, this study models the anticipated changes in resource use and GHG emissions between 2015 and 2030, that would result from implementing climate mitigation actions in Nepal's NDC. The model uses four different scenarios. They link NDC and policies across economic sectors and offer policy insights regarding (1) energy losses that could cost up to 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030, (2) protection of forest resources by reducing the use of biomass fuels from 465 million gigajoules (GJ) in 2015 to 195 million GJ in 2030, and (3) a significant reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 relative to the business-as-usual (BAU) case by greater use of electricity from hydropower rather than biomass. These policy insights are significant for Nepal and other LDCs as they seek an energy transition towards using more renewable energy and electricity.     

Economic Evaluation of Carbon Dioxide Emission Abatement Measures in the Greek Energy Sector

This paper outlines a methodological framework for the economic evaluation of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission abatement policies and measures, formulating a basis for the selection of those options of climate change mitigation interventions that minimize economic cost and maximize social welfare. To this purpose, a cost-benefit analysis has been implemented in order to evaluate a variety of CO 2 emission abatement measures in the Greek energy sector on the basis of their social (i.e. the sum of the private and external) costs and benefits, and it is compared with a cost-effectiveness analysis, which takes into account only the net financial costs of the examined interventions. The analysis clearly reveals that a significant decrease in CO 2 emissions is possible without great cost to the economy. Moreover, the monetization of environmental benefits (e.g. the restriction of impacts on human health, agriculture and biodiversity, etc.) associated with the above-mentioned interventions represents a powerful tool for highlighting priority actions in the context of a climate change mitigation policy and for quantifying their overall economic and environmental effectiveness.     

A bioeconomic model for estimating the benefits of acid rain abatement to Salmon fishing: a case study in South West Scotland

The United Kingdom, under the Large Combustion Plant Directive of the European Community, is committed to cutting sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions by 60% of 1980 levels by the year 2003. In order to justify this action and to support new decisions on further emission reductions, policy makers require knowledge of the economic benefits of abatement. Benefit estimates for the recovery of freshwater fish populations present difficulties since the effect of reduced acid deposition on environmental processes is complex and because fishery records are often inadequate or absent. This paper predicts the economic benefits of acid rain abatement to the rod and line salmon fishery of Galloway, South West Scotland. It achieves this by linking output on long term changes in water chemistry and fish population status from MAGIC, a process based catchment model for acidification, with catch and market value data. Predicted increases in the market value of the fishery are presented and the role of the model in economic analysis of environmental policy discussed.     

Environmental policy stringency,renewable energy consumption and CO2 emissions: Panel cointegration analysis for BRIICTS countries

ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between environmental policy stringency and CO₂ emissions in BRIICTS (Brazil, Russia, India, Indonesia, China, Turkey and South Africa) for the period 1993–2014 after controlling for renewable energy, fossil energy, oil prices and income. We believe that this is the first attempt to use the recently OECD-developed environmental policy stringency index to test the effectiveness of environmental stringency policy in reducing CO₂ emission in these countries. Applying the Panel Pooled Mean Group Autoregressive Distributive Lag (PMG-ARDL) estimator, we found an inverted U–shaped relationship between environmental policy stringency and CO₂ emissions. This suggests that initially strict stringent environmental policy does not lead to improvements in the environment but after a certain level or a threshold point, environmental stringency policy leads to improvement in environmental quality. Renewable energy consumption was negatively related to CO₂ emissions while fossil energy consumption and real oil prices and income were positively and significantly related to CO₂. Our findings suggest that strengthening the stringency of environmental policies and promoting renewable energy are effective ways of preventing environmental degradation in BRIICTS countries.     

A model for the CO2 capture potential

Global warming is a result of increasing anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, and the consequences will be dramatic climate changes if no action is taken. One of the main global challenges in the years to come is therefore to reduce the CO₂ emissions.Increasing energy efficiency and a transition to renewable energy as the major energy source can reduce CO₂ emissions, but such measures can only lead to significant emission reductions in the long-term. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a promising technological option for reducing CO₂ emissions on a shorter time scale.A model to calculate the CO₂ capture potential has been developed, and it is estimated that 25 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored within the EU by 2050. Globally, 236 billion tonnes CO₂ can be captured and stored by 2050. The calculations indicate that wide implementation of CCS can reduce CO₂ emissions by 54% in the EU and 33% globally in 2050 compared to emission levels today.Such a reduction in emissions is not sufficient to stabilize the climate. Therefore, the strategy to achieve the necessary CO₂ emissions reductions must be a combination of (1) increasing energy efficiency, (2) switching from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources, and (3) wide implementation of CCS.     

The regional economic impact of reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Western Australia

This study analyses the general-equilibrium impacts of an international climate change response policy on the economy of Western Australia (WA), one of the most mining-based and energy-intensive states of Australia. It finds that emissions would fall by up to 11% from the base level in WA. However, such environmental benefits emanate at some costs to the state economy; in terms of foregone gross state product, the costs are up to 3% of the base level. Indeed, the actual costs and benefits depend on the precise design of the climate change response policy as well as on the other policies within which it operates. For example, when emission quota permits are sold to industries and no tradeable carbon credits (i.e. credits for the carbon sequestrated in Kyoto forests) are granted, emissions decline by about 8% and GSP falls by about 3% of the base levels. If carbon credits are tradeable, however, the environmental benefits could be increased and the GSP cost could be reduced substantially. Also, the reduced economic activity caused by emission abatement results in a modest fall in net government revenue, despite the additional revenue from permit sales in some cases. Accordingly, government’s fiscal package surrounding the emission permits would influence the emission abatement impacts on the economy. With regard to the effects on the structure of the state economy, the oil and gas industry suffers only a slight contraction but the energy-supplying sector as a whole contracts substantially. It is therefore not surprising that the impacts on the WA economy of curbing emissions by energy and transport industries alone are quite significant when compared to those resulted from all industries’ compliance with the abatement scheme. It needs to be noted that the model projections analysed in the paper are based on simplifying assumptions and tentative scenarios, and hence should be viewed with caution and not be understood as unconditional forecasts.     

Devising an integrated methodology for analyzing energy use and CO2 emissions from Taiwan's petrochemical industries

Input-output modeling and multiplier analysis are used to assess Taiwan's five petrochemical industries, based upon their economic contribution and potential impacts on energy consumption and CO2 emission. In addition, a consolidated index system was developed for evaluating energy and economic efficiencies as well as targets for CO2 reduction. Results indicate that petrochemical materials (PM) make a major contribution to economic development, with lesser contributions from plastic materials (PL) and artificial fibres (AF). PM has the highest energy multiplier while PL has the largest induced potential for energy consumption. Plastic and rubber products (PP, RP) are relatively insignificant energy consumers. AF has the highest CO2 multiplier, and its induced potential for CO2 emission is the most significant. The consolidated index shows that the upstream petrochemical industries perform rather poorly in an integrated view of economic, energy, and CO2 emission, and should be seen as the primary targets for CO2 reduction. Investment of the petrochemical industries in Taiwan should be adjusted to improve energy efficiency, economic bases, and lower CO2 emissions.     

Development and Climate Change: A Mainstreaming Approach for Assessing Economic,Social, and Environmental Impacts of Adaptation Measures

The paper introduces the so-called climate change mainstreaming approach, where vulnerability and adaptation measures are assessed in the context of general development policy objectives. The approach is based on the application of a limited set of indicators. These indicators are selected as representatives of focal development policy objectives, and a stepwise approach for addressing climate change impacts, development linkages, and the economic, social and environmental dimensions related to vulnerability and adaptation are introduced. Within this context it is illustrated using three case studies how development policy indicators in practice can be used to assess climate change impacts and adaptation measures based on three case studies, namely a road project in flood prone areas of Mozambique, rainwater harvesting in the agricultural sector in Tanzania and malaria protection in Tanzania. The conclusions of the paper confirm that climate risks can be reduced at relatively low costs, but the uncertainty is still remaining about some of the wider development impacts of implementing climate change adaptation measures.     

Economic-environmental modeling of point source pollution in Jefferson County,Alabama, USA

This paper uses an integrated economic-environmental model to assess the point source pollution from major industries in Jefferson County, Northern Alabama. Industrial expansion generates employment, income, and tax revenue for the public sector; however, it is also often associated with the discharge of chemical pollutants. Jefferson County is one of the largest industrial counties in Alabama that experienced smog warnings and ambient ozone concentration, 1996-1999. Past studies of chemical discharge from industries have used models to assess the pollution impact of individual plants. This study, however, uses an extended Input-Output (I-O) economic model with pollution emission coefficients to assess direct and indirect pollutant emission for several major industries in Jefferson County. The major findings of the study are: (a) the principal emission by the selected industries are volatile organic compounds (VOC) and these contribute to the ambient ozone concentration; (b) the direct and indirect emissions are significantly higher than the direct emission by some industries, indicating that an isolated analysis will underestimate the emission by an industry; (c) while low emission coefficient industries may suggest industry choice they may also emit the most hazardous chemicals. This study is limited by the assumptions made, and the data availability, however it provides a useful analytical tool for direct and cumulative emission estimation and generates insights on the complexity in choice of industries.     

Publicly-provided information in environmental management: incorporating groundwater quality goals into herbicide treatment recommendations

Use of publicly-provided information to promote environmental quality has received somewhat less attention in the environmental management literature than use of other environmental policy tools based on economic incentives such as emissions taxes, subsidies and marketable permits. Yet publicly-provided information may have potential as an environmental policy tool, especially in managing problems of agricultural pollution, due in large part to the existing capability of public information agencies associated with the agricultural research community. Information provided by these agencies is known to be an important factor in decision making in agriculture and may have potential for influencing decisions that relate directly to preserving the integrity of environmental resources. Moreover, this potential may have particular relevance for protecting groundwater quality from agricultural production since the results of contamination are often at least partially internal to the farm decision maker. This paper develops an empirical model to formulate publicly-provided herbicide treatment recommendations designed to protect both the quality of groundwater and the income of farmers. An economic and statistical model of a crop-pest system is used in conjunction with a groundwater loading model to derive the trade-off relationship between producer income and movement of herbicide material through the root zone. The trade-off relationship can provide the basis for formulating herbicide treatment recommendations and can also shed light on appropriate groundwater quality goals.     

Hyperautomobility and Governmentality in Auckland

Abstract

A number of cities around the world are associated with very high levels of private motor car usage, and Auckland provides an example of one of these ‘hyperautomobile’ cities. There are many problems with this system of transportation and dependence on the private car, including environmental, social and city design dimensions. Though there is a clear aspiration to move towards reduced levels of car usage in the city's transport and spatial planning strategies, there are major difficulties in implementation terms. We develop and consider future scenarios to 2041 to reduce these levels of motorization, and subsequent transport CO₂ emissions, with a much greater use of public transport, walking and cycling, urban planning, and low emission vehicles. The current implementability of such a ‘sustainable mobility’ future is however questioned in the current political and social context, and critically debated in terms of the available governance mechanisms and the limited attempts to shape the behaviour of the public. We conclude by calling for a reconsideration of the policy measures being considered, including the range and levels of application and investment; with a much wider framing of the transport planning remit, and carried out within a much stronger participatory framework for decision-making.     

Climate change in Asia: issues and policy options

This article provides a brief review of some of the policy issues facing the Asian region with respect to climate change and its economic consequences. The environmental consequences of Asia's economic rise threaten the future growth of the region. Despite recent economic expansion, Asia will be one of the areas of the world most vulnerable to climate change. While Asia currently contributes moderately to greenhouse gas emissions, the potential for increases in emissions is significant. National and regional policy options, including abatement and adaptation, are examined as strategies for tackling the likely effects of climate change. This study recommends that national initiatives that have no 'regrets' properties be a priority area for further research so that they can be implemented as soon as possible. It is envisaged that in the short to medium term, identifiable no regrets policies can be a useful tool for reducing emissions and vulnerability to climate change in developing regions such as Asia.     

Effective EU and Member State policies for stimulating CCS

Although CO₂ capture and storage (CCS) is widely recognised as an option to mitigate climate change, consistent and effective EU policies to advance CCS are still absent. This paper discusses policy instruments for advancing large-scale deployment of CCS in the European Union, and evaluates them in a multi-criteria analysis. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) is a cost-effective instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions, but it is questionable whether its currently limited time horizon and short-trading periods will lead to substantial CCS diffusion. Complementary policies at the EU and the Member State level may repair this and provide sufficient incentives for CCS. Potential policies include financial instruments such as investment subsidies, a feed-in scheme, or a CO₂ price guarantee, as well as a CCS mandate or a low-carbon portfolio. These policy options differ with respect to their environmental effectiveness, possible interaction with the EU-ETS, costs and financial risk involved, and their competition with other mitigation options. Interactions between Member State policies and the EU-ETS are smaller in scope than those of EU-wide policies, but they are more likely to lead to displacement of financial resources from other low-carbon technologies. In addition, national policies may pose a significant part of the financial risk of CCS operations with Member States, reducing the operator's incentive to innovate. Overall, structural policies at the EU level, such as a mandate or a low-carbon portfolio standard would be more conducive for realising large-scale deployment of CCS across the EU as well as more acceptable to environmental organisations.     

International trade and air pollution: estimating the economic costs of air emissions from waterborne commerce vessels in the United States

Although there is a burgeoning literature on the effects of international trade on the environment, relatively little work has been done on where trade most directly effects the environment: the transportation sector. This article shows how international trade is affecting air pollution emissions in the United States' shipping sector. Recent work has shown that cargo ships have been long overlooked regarding their contribution to air pollution. Indeed, ship emissions have recently been deemed "the last unregulated source of traditional air pollutants". Air pollution from ships has a number of significant local, national, and global environmental effects. Building on past studies, we examine the economic costs of this increasing and unregulated form of environmental damage. We find that total emissions from ships are largely increasing due to the increase in foreign commerce (or international trade). The economic costs of SO2 pollution range from dollars 697 million to dollars 3.9 billion during the period examined, or dollars 77 to dollars 435 million on an annual basis. The bulk of the cost is from foreign commerce, where the annual costs average to dollars 42 to dollars 241 million. For NOx emissions the costs are dollars 3.7 billion over the entire period or dollars 412 million per year. Because foreign trade is driving the growth in US shipping, we also estimate the effect of the Uruguay Round on emissions. Separating out the effects of global trade agreements reveals that the trade agreement-led emissions amounted to dollars 96 to dollars 542 million for SO2 between 1993 and 2001, or dollars 10 to dollars 60 million per year. For NOx they were dollars 745 million for the whole period or dollars 82 million per year. Without adequate policy responses, we predict that these trends and costs will continue into the future.     

基于产业链分析的长三角地区CO2与大气污染物排放研究

长三角地区作为我国大气污染较为严重区域之一,如何在保持经济增长的同时减少CO₂与大气污染物的排放已成为一个重要挑战。本研究基于2007年与2012年长三角区域间投入产出表,定量分析了长三角地区省市间贸易引致的二氧化碳和大气污染物排放转移特征和变化趋势。同时,运用产业关联系数法,从前向关联与后向关联双重视角分析了长三角地区减缓CO₂和大气污染物排放的关键行业。研究结果表明,长三角的SO₂、PM_2.5排放总量表现为消费端大于生产端,CO₂、NO_x排放总量表现为生产端大于消费端。安徽省总体呈现为长三角地区贸易的SO₂、NO_x与PM_2.5排放净调出地,而上海与浙江表现为多数污染物排放净调入地。CO₂与大气污染物协同前向减排的关键行业为江苏省、浙江省和安徽省的电力、热力的生产和供应业,安徽省的煤炭开采和洗选业等,可以通过生产端技术革新和能源结构优化来促进减排;CO₂与大气污染物后向协同减排的关键行业为江苏省、浙江省和安徽省的建筑业等,对于这些行业,调整消费结构是有效的减排措施。为更好地制定长三角地区减排与污染防治政策,应当综合考虑行业减排、协同减排等,以确保经济持续增长的同时达到减排目标。     

Panel heterogeneous distribution analysis of trade and modernized agriculture on CO2 emissions: The role of renewable and fossil fuel energy consumption

In line with the global target of reducing climate change and its impact, this study explored the causal relationship between CO₂ emissions, modernized agriculture, trade openness, aggregate and disaggregate energy consumption in 14 African countries from 1990–2013 using a panel quantile estimation procedure. The empirical results showed that value addition to agricultural commodities declines CO₂ emissions in countries with high pollution levels. The study revealed a positive nexus between CO₂ emissions and energy consumption homogeneously distributed across quantiles. Trade openness was found to lower CO₂ emissions in countries with lower and higher levels of environmental pollution. While fossil fuel energy consumption was found to exacerbate CO₂ emissions, renewable energy consumption confirmed its mitigating effect on environmental pollution. The institution of climate‐smart agricultural options will sustainably increase productivity and income while adapting to climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Diversification of energy technologies with clean and modern energy sources like renewables avoid the over‐dependence on fossil fuels for agricultural purposes. Trade policies can stimulate flows of technology and investment opportunities for specialization in production and economies of scale. Hence, the consideration of policies that boost agricultural sector productivity and create an efficient market for international trade in Africa will help in improving livelihoods.