Fine-grain spatial patterning and dynamics of land use and agrobiodiversity amid global changes in the Bolivian Andes

Our research addresses the gap in scientific research on the fine-grain spatial patterns and social–ecological interactions of land use and agrobiodiversity. The spatial dimension of agrobiodiversity dynamics potentially strengthens the social–ecological resilience and food security of smallholders by buffering risk and vulnerability. Our research integrates the scientific theories, concepts, and methods of spatial externalities, social–ecological interactions, geospatial land and global change sciences, and political ecology. We designed a case study of the Arbieto-Tarata landscape in the Bolivian Andes that comprises a globally significant agrobiodiversity hot spot of Andean maize. The Arbieto-Tarata landscape, which contains nearly 8000 fields at 2500–2800 masl, is representative of mixed-use smallholder agri-food systems amid global changes. Our research predicts spatial spillover and edge effects of combined social and environmental factors leading to the clustering of same-crop fields. Findings reveal significant levels of the predicted clustering between 2006 and 2012. The degree of this clustering is found to differ among geographic and environmental sub-areas reflecting fine-grain variation of local causal linkages. Extra-local causal linkages include high levels of migration, water resource shortages, and urbanization. Results show the influences of informal and formal coordination in the spatial clustering of same-crop fields. This field-level coordination improves the efficiency of resource allocations and lowers costs of production. It enables the viability of high-agrobiodiversity Andean maize in smallholder land use and agri-food systems amid global changes. The article discusses the broader policy and scientific implications of these findings including scaling up and support of the social–ecological resilience of agrobiodiversity globally.     

Scenarios of land-use change in a deforestation corridor in the Brazilian Amazon: combining two scales of analysis

Local, regional, and global processes affect deforestation and land-use changes in the Brazilian Amazon. Characteristics are: direct conversions from forest to pasture; regional processes of indirect land-use change, described by the conversion of pastures to cropland, which increases the demand for pastures elsewhere; and teleconnections, fueled by the global demands for soybeans as animal fodder. We modeled land-use changes for two scenarios Trend and Sustainable Development for a hot spot of land-use change along the BR-163 highway in Mato Grosso and Pará, Brazil. We investigated the differences between a coupled modeling approach, which incorporates indirect land-use change processes, and a noncoupled land-use model. We coupled the regional-scale LandSHIFT model, defined for Mato Grosso and Pará, with a subregional model, alucR, covering a selected corridor along the BR-163. The results indicated distinct land-use scenario outcomes from the coupled modeling approach and the subregional model quantification. We found the highest deforestation estimates returned from the subregional quantification of the Trend scenario. This originated from the strong local dynamics of past deforestation and land-use changes. Land-use changes exceeded the demands estimated at regional scale. We observed the lowest deforestation estimates at the subregional quantification of the Sustainable Development story line. We highlight that model coupling increased the representation of scenario outcomes at fine resolution while providing consistency across scales. However, distinct local dynamics were explicitly captured at subregional scale. The scenario result pinpoints the importance of policies to aim at the cattle ranching sector, to increase land tenure registration and enforcement of environmental laws.

     

Indicators of deforestation in the Southern Brazilian Pre-Amazon

In recent years, Amazonian deforestation has become a question of global concern. Deforestation in Amazon is a complex phenomenon in nature and has been related to traditional agriculture expansion. In this work, land use, socioeconomic and conservation indicators, combined with statistical analysis, were used to understand forces associated with patterns of deforestation. This approach was applied in Southern Brazilian Pre-Amazon in Mato Grosso State, which represents an extensive rain forest-savanna ecotone, located in the south border of Amazon biome. Based on data from the last two agricultural censuses (1995/1996–2006), we compared agricultural expansion in this area and Mato Grosso state. Results have shown that 85 % of state deforestation was concentrated in Southern Pre-Amazon and was closely related to increase in number of cattle and pasture area. PCA results pointed that population (92 %), number of cattle (86.5 %), pastures (84.2 %) and tractors (78.4 %) were variables with highest positive correlation to deforestation. It showed that GDP contributes to an individual axis and has a low correlation to deforestation (37.8 %). Conservation units and indigenous reserves also contribute to a single axis and were negatively correlated to temporary crops area. Results revealed a significant reduction in production and commercialization of extractive products in the region, revealing that the main, almost only conservation policy in Mato Grosso remains the creation of Special Areas. We suggest that further studies are necessary to screen development alternatives to simple cutting trees down. It is important to diversify strategies for deforestation control, and development aspects must be more seriously considered to reach a sustainable deforestation control policy.     

From spatial models to spatial evaluation in the analysis of wetland restoration in the Vecht river basin

Water tables are strictly controlled throughout much of the Netherlands. Higher water tables could permit the restoration of wetland ecosystems. Deriving benefits from this requires the spatial matching of physical planning, eco-hydrological processes, and economic activities. This paper reports on a study combining spatial analysis and disciplinary integration to assess management strategies for the Vecht river basin in the Netherlands. The paper addresses two research questions. How can the information generated by spatial models be condensed into performance indicators for the evaluation of strategies? How can spatial information be retained in the evaluation, and does this lead to different rankings and/or insights? Procedures for the construction of performance indicators for three criteria – net present value, environmental quality and spatial equity – are presented. The evaluation concludes that recreation and higher water tables provide a means for restoration, recouping of costs, and stimulating regional incomes. Maintenance of spatial detail led to different insights, and in particular indicated uncertainty about this conclusion.     

Effectiveness of protected areas in the Colombian Andes: deforestation, fire and land-use changes

Protected areas (PAs) are one of the most common conservation strategies to halt biodiversity loss. However, little is known about their current effectiveness and how they could behave under projected scenarios of change, especially in the mountain ecosystems of the Andean region. In this study, we assess the role of protected areas against deforestation and fire incidence in the Colombian Andes and how variables associated with biophysical and context drivers such as the size, year of creation and geographic location of the PAs affect their effectiveness. For the long-term, we have addressed the question of how effective these areas will be under three different scenarios of change for the period between 2020 and 2050, including a reference scenario and two scenarios of increasing pastureland and croplands. The results obtained indicated that both deforestation and fire levels were significantly lower inside protected areas than outside their borders. Concerning variables affecting deforestation and fire, only the type of ecosystem affected these processes in this study. The magnitude of forest loss was different between the analysed scenarios and depended on the location of the PAs. The PAs located in the Western Mountain Range presented the largest values of deforestation but the lowest number of fire incidences. This finding could be related to the presence of processes other than fire, such as illegal logging or selective extraction. The largest losses are expected in the PAs associated with the Eastern and Central mountain ranges, whereas the Western Mountain range will have the lowest loss. We conclude that although the Andes Mountains are a highly transformed and dynamic region, the current PAs have been effective barriers for deforestation and fire. However, the creation of new areas and the maintenance of the current PAs should take into account the interaction with the surrounding population, especially in those areas that are more sensitive to change.     

Understanding deforestation in montane and lowland forests of the Colombian Andes

Colombian Andean forests cover nine million ha. These forests provide an informative case study of mountain deforestation in South America. They are surrounded by tropical lowland forests, and they host most of the country’s human population. This study evaluates the relative importance of human and natural variables in deforestation of the Colombian Andes between 1985 and 2005 using remote sensing methods, geographic information system (GIS) technology and general linear models (GLM). The following factors affected the annual deforestation in the region positively: forced population migration, unsatisfied basic needs, economic activity, crops, pastures, illicit crops, protected areas and slope. Factors having a negative effect were tenure of small land parcels, road density, water scarcity and mean temperature. The results of this study also provide insight into the differences between the dynamics of lowland forests and those of montane forests. Montane forests had a lower annual rate of deforestation than did forests in the lowlands. Socio-economic, demographic and biophysical factors explain overall deforestation rates for the region. However, when altitude variation is taken into account, intraregional differences in the Andes become evident. Deforestation processes differ between those areas adjacent to the high Andean valleys where most of the country’s population concentrates and those areas in the tropical lowlands north, west and east of the Andean chain. Differences between lowland and montane forest dynamics are due partly to the accessibility of forests and differences in wealth and economic activities. In montane forests, deforestation is positively influenced by economic activity, the presence of protected areas and higher slopes. Deforestation in montane forests is negatively affected by tenure of small land parcels, road density, water scarcity and mean temperature. Lowland deforestation rates are more closely related to rural population, pasture percentage, crops, protected areas and temperature. Our results suggest that montane forests appear to be in a more advanced stage of colonisation and economic development, whereas lowland forests are closer to the colonisation frontier and to rapidly growing colonist populations. This study reinforces the idea that although the most common tropical drivers of deforestation are found in the Andes, these drivers operate differently when intraregional differences are considered.     

National and regional determinants of tropical deforestation in Colombia

Global tropical deforestation continues to occur at high rates despite political attention. National-level forest baselines are being established all over the world to guide the implementation of several policy mechanisms. However, identifying the direct and indirect drivers of deforestation and understanding the complexity of their interlinkages are often difficult. We first analyzed deforestation between 1990 and 2005 at the national level and found an annual deforestation rate of 0.62 %. Next, we performed separate analyses for four natural regions in Colombia and found annual deforestation rates between 0.42 and 1.92 %. Using general linear models, we identified several direct causes and underlying factors influencing deforestation at the national level: rural population density, cattle, protected areas, and slope. Significant differences in deforestation rates and causes were found across regions. In the Caribbean region, drivers of loss are urban population, unsatisfied basic needs, slope, and precipitation and four land use variables (illicit crops, pastures, cattle, and fires). In the Orinoco region, crops are the main driver of forest loss, and in the Amazonian region, deforestation is primarily due to fires related to the colonization front. Policy mechanisms will have to take into account regional patterns to successfully balance development and forest preservation in Colombia.     

Causal relationships between African mahoganies exports and deforestation in Ghana: policy implications

When exploiting forest resources, the resource use must be sustainable if its use is to support its function in the natural ecosystem. The African mahogany, a prized timber species, is widely exploited, raising policy concerns about the management of forest resources to meet the social, economic, and ecological needs of present and future generations. This paper explores, for the purpose of policy implication, the relationship between the exportation and deforestation of African mahoganies. The analysis employed a Granger causality test within the error correction model to evaluate the direction of causality between African mahoganies exports and deforestation in Ghana. The results suggested that in the short run, there was significant (P < 0.01) unidirectional causality from African mahoganies exports to deforestation. However, there was no directional causality from deforestation to mahogany exports. Thus, mahogany extraction and logging in general are among the major factors contributing to deforestation in Ghana. The general assessment of historical trends in the extraction levels of the two main genera of African mahoganies revealed that Entandrophragma cylindricum and Khaya ivorensis have been the most exploited species over the years. Improvements in, and the enforcement of, existing forest institutions and incentives, as well as related policies, could minimise the rate of deforestation not only of the African mahogany but also in timber logging, thus stemming forest degradation and deforestation in the country.     

建设用地空间错配理论、机制与效益损失:基于湖北省的实证

研究建设用地空间错配特征及内在机制,对纠正土地资源错配、优化土地资源配置机制具有现实意义。基于资源错配理论对土地资源错配理论开展梳理,提出建设用地错配机制假说,运用边际分析法和计量方法构建建设用地空间错配测度模型及机制检验模型,并以湖北省为例进行实证研究。结果表明:①1996—2017年湖北省建设用地过度错配与短缺错配并存,空间错配程度总体上有所改善,但局部地区错配程度加剧。②土地负外部性扩散、非均衡发展、非市场化供应、土地财政依赖等加剧了建设用地空间错配,优化产业结构、减少政府腐败、发展多元所有制等有利于降低建设用地空间错配程度。③1996—2017年湖北省建设用地空间错配效率损失由6.92%下降到3.84%,年均减少2.03%,效率损失得到缓解。④从损失值看,湖北省建设用地空间错配效率损失严重,1996—2017年累计经济损失达3.90×10^4亿元。主要结论:建设用地空间错配测度模型兼顾了土地配置的效率与公平,可以作为建设用地空间错配程度衡量的有效方法;建设用地空间错配已经成为阻碍经济增长的重要因素之一,纠正建设用地空间错配,能有效促进区域经济增长;土地市场配置和政府主导配置均会带来建设用地空间错配,建设用地配置中一个“有效的市场”与“有为的政府”结合十分必要且迫切。     

Forest dynamics in Mississippi, USA: a hybrid statistical and geospatial analysis

Understanding forest changes and its trajectory is important to develop policy options and future scenarios for climate analysis. This research is conducted to gain insights on secondary forests change using Mississippi, USA, as a case study. We investigate the spatial patterns and temporal dynamics of secondary forests at high resolution and examine the forces driving their changes. An extensive literature review is conducted to refine the conceptual framework of forest changes and identify the underlying key factors. Forest changes are quantified at high spatial (30-m) and temporal (biennial) resolutions, using time series remotely sensed data between 1984 and 2007. A number of geospatial and socioeconomic data were compiled to analyze the spatial variations of forest disturbances and their linkages to various socioeconomic, political, and biogeophysical factors. The results show that the secondary forests are highly dynamic and variable. Disturbances and regeneration occur continuously everywhere in a systematic and coordinated fashion. This pattern prevents an extensive disturbance and increases total forest cover. Market conditions (i.e., timber price) are the key predictor of the level and overall trend of forest disturbances. However, spatial patterns of forest dynamics cannot be explained by location-specific biophysical, socioeconomic, and policy factors identified in the literature. They can best be described by the ecological characteristics of the forests (i.e., the forest type and age distribution), which have a clear economic linkage. The research shows that regenerated forests frequently experience loss and gain of their extent, and their ecological characteristics change drastically on a short-term basis. These results point out challenges and opportunities in forest management and policy with regard to reforestation.     

Climate Adaptation Services for the Netherlands: an operational approach to support spatial adaptation planning

There is a growing availability of climate change information, offered to scientists and policy makers through climate services. However, climate services are not well taken up by the policy-making and planning community. Climate services focus on primary impacts of climate change, e.g., the disclosure of precipitation and temperature data, and this seems insufficient in meeting their needs. In this paper, we argue that, in order to reach the spatial planning community, climate services should take on a wider perspective by translating climate data to policy-relevant indicators and by offering support in the design of adaptation strategies. We argue there should be more focus on translating consequences of climate change to land-use claims and subsequently discuss the validity, consequences and implications of these claims with stakeholders, so they can play a role in spatial planning processes where much of the climate adaptation takes place. The term Climate Adaptation Services is introduced as being a stepwise approach supporting the assessment of vulnerability in a wider perspective and include the design and appraisal of adaptation strategies in a multi-stakeholder setting. We developed the Climate Adaptation Atlas and the Climate Ateliers as tools within the Climate Adaptation Services approach to support decision-making and planning processes. In this paper, we describe the different steps of our approach and report how some of the challenges were addressed.     

Creating an academic landscape of sustainability science: an analysis of the citation network

Sustainability is an important concept for society, economics, and the environment, with thousands of research papers published on the subject annually. As sustainability science becomes a distinctive research field, it is important to define sustainability clearly and grasp the entire structure, current status, and future directions of sustainability science. This paper provides an academic landscape of sustainability science by analyzing the citation network of papers published in academic journals. A topological clustering method is used to detect the sub-domains of sustainability science. Results show the existence of 15 main research clusters: Agriculture, Fisheries, Ecological Economics, Forestry (agroforestry), Forestry (tropical rain forest), Business, Tourism, Water, Forestry (biodiversity), Urban Planning, Rural Sociology, Energy, Health, Soil, and Wildlife. Agriculture, Fisheries, Ecological Economics, and Forestry (agroforestry) clusters are predominant among these. The Energy cluster is currently developing, as indicated by the age of papers in the cluster, although it has a relatively small number of papers. These results are compared with those obtained by natural language processing. Education, Biotechnology, Medical, Livestock, Climate Change, Welfare, and Livelihood clusters are uniquely extracted by natural language processing, because they are common topics across clusters in the citation network.     

Ethics, genetics and dynamics: an emerging systematic approach to radiation protection of the environment

There is now a general consensus of opinion that an explicit approach is necessary to demonstrate radiation protection of the environment, and that this approach needs to be developed in a systematic way. The framework that is emerging links ethical and moral issues (anthropocentric, biocentric, and ecocentric) to broad-based principles and objectives of environmental protection (sustainable development, maintaining biological diversity, and habitat protection) and then links these, in turn, to the needs of current environmental management practices, such as environmental exploitation, pollution control, and nature conservation. The relevance of this to radiation is that its effects (such as causing early mortality, morbidity, reduced reproductive success, as well as resulting in observable (scorable) cytogenetic damage) are those that may have a bearing on these same environmental management practices. The devise that would appear to be most useful to bridge the gap between our disparate data on radiation effects and the needs of environmental management, is that of adding to the concept of Reference Man in the shape of a small set of Reference Animals and Plants. This approach has now been adopted by the ICRP, adding new dynamics-the motive forces, both moral and physical-to the subject. The way is now clear for rapid progress to be made on a number of fronts.     

Identifying the determinants and spatial nexus of provincial carbon intensity in China: a dynamic spatial panel approach

Is emission intensity of carbon dioxide (CO₂) spatially correlated? What determines the CO₂ intensity at a provincial level? More importantly, what climate and economic policy decisions should the China’s central and local governments make to reduce the CO₂ intensity and prevent the environmental pollution given that China has been the largest emitter of CO₂? We aim to address these questions in this study by applying a dynamic spatial system generalized method of moment technique. Our analysis suggests that provinces are influenced by their neighbours. In addition, CO₂ intensities are relatively higher in the western and middle areas, and that the spatial agglomeration effect of the provincial CO₂ intensity is obvious. Our analysis also shows that CO₂ intensity is nonlinearly related to gross domestic product, positively associated with secondary-sector share and foreign direct investment, and negatively associated with population size. Important policy implications are drawn on reducing carbon intensity.     

High-resolution spatial analysis of stomatal ozone uptake in arable crops and pastures

Ozone effects on plants depend on atmospheric transport and stomatal uptake. Thus, ozone-risk assessments should use measured ozone concentrations and account for the influence of atmospheric conditions and soil moisture on stomatal and nonstomatal ozone deposition. This requires disaggregated data for the physical input parameters and species-specific data for specific stomatal conductance (g(s)). In this study, an approach was developed based on a resistance analogue transport model. This model requires interpolated routine-measuring data for ozone concentration at 3-5 m height, wind speed, precipitation, and soil moisture content as inputs to estimate the amount of ozone taken up by wheat (Triticum aestivum) and grass/clover pastures with a 1x1-km resolution. The model was applied to the area under agricultural production in Switzerland. Using data for June 1994, the calculations revealed that the median of the distribution of stomatal ozone uptake was 88% higher in wheat compared to grassland. This was mainly due to the higher maximum stomatal conductance in wheat. Because ozone flux to soil and to external plant surfaces was comparable in both vegetation types, the difference in the stomatal fluxes was mainly responsible for distinct differences in flux partitioning. In both cases, only about 11% of the total cumulative flux was absorbed by external plant surfaces, whereas the soil was a strong sink responsible for as much as 50% of the total flux into grasslands. The higher-ozone flux to wheat resulted in clearly lower-ozone concentrations at canopy height, but no significant correlation between cumulative canopy-level ozone exposure, expressed as accumulated exposure above 40 ppb (AOT40), and stomatal uptake was found. Thus, to estimate the ozone risk for crops using a flux-based approach may lead to results that differ substantially from those obtained with a concentration-based approach.     

Historical carbon fluxes in the expanding deforestation frontier of Southern Brazilian Amazonia (1985–2012)

In tropical areas, pioneer occupation fronts steer the rapid expansion of deforestation, contributing to carbon emissions. Up-to-date carbon emission estimates covering the long-term development of such frontiers depend on the availability of high spatial–temporal resolution data. In this paper, we provide a detailed assessment of carbon losses from deforestation and potential forest degradation from fragmentation for one expanding frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. We focused on one of the Amazonia’s hot-spots of forest loss, the BR-163 highway that connects the high productivity agricultural landscapes in Mato Grosso with the exporting harbors of the Amazon. We used multi-decadal (1984–2012) Landsat-based time series on forested and non-forested area in combination with a carbon book-keeping model. We show a 36% reduction in 1984s biomass carbon stocks, which led to the emission of 611.5 TgCO₂ between 1985 and 1998 (43.6 TgCO₂ year⁻¹) and 959.8 TgCO₂ over 1999–2012 (68.5 TgCO₂ year⁻¹). Overall, fragmentation-related carbon losses represented 1.88% of total emissions by 2012, with an increasing relevance since 2004. We compared the Brazilian Space Agency deforestation assessment (PRODES) with our data and found that small deforestation polygons not captured by PRODES had increasing importance on estimated deforestation carbon losses since 2000. The comparative analysis improved the understanding of data-source-related uncertainties on carbon estimates and indicated disagreement areas between datasets that could be subject of future research. Furthermore, spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived from this study are important for setting regional baselines for REDD+ or similar payment for ecosystem services frameworks.

     

Resilience and collapse of artisanal fisheries: a system dynamics analysis of a shellfish fishery in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Analyzing different pathways by which social–ecological systems can loose resilience and enter trajectories of collapse constitutes an important aspect of our quest towards understanding resource sustainability. This paper’s goal was to better understand the effect of a particular class of disturbance—the accumulative effects of routine stressors—in the context of marine social–ecological systems. To that effect, we built a system dynamics model using empirically collected institutional and biological field data of an artisanal fishery in the Gulf of California, Mexico. Among our findings, we identified different scenarios under which even very small endogenous changes in the relationship between ecological and institutional variables can send a seemingly resilient system into a trajectory of collapse. We discuss why these types of disturbances are so difficult to prevent and be identified by the users of the resource, as well as potential strategies to address these challenges.     

Social representations of socioenvironmental dynamics in extractive ecosystems and conservation practices with sustainable development: a bibliometric analysis

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Social representations necessarily originate from the interaction between individuals and groups in a social setting through communication and shared...