Crop responses to climate and socioeconomic change in northern regions

Climate, farmers’ actions and previous cultivation history influence regional crop yields and drive autonomous adaptation in time. Proceeding climate change will induce needs for various adaptation measures in the future, especially in the northern regions. We investigated how farms take advantage of novel opportunities in Finland as dictated by the biophysical environment, farmer experience and knowledge, and the dynamics of the socioeconomic environment. Using Finland as a case, we aimed to characterize the relation of regional climate and yield development of the four major cereal crops since 1965 and of spring rape since 1978. Yields in the northernmost regions were most responsive to growing season temperature sum and precipitation. However, yield levels in southern relative to northern and eastern areas have polarized through the period, which might be an indication of a socioeconomic rather than a climate-related response. As socioeconomic factors can be more deterministic for targeting autonomous adaptation on farms, regionally planned proactive adaptation strategies are needed to prepare for long-term changes such as the climate change.     

The role of household demographic factors in shaping transportation spending in Turkey

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Factors at the family scale, for which dynamic decisions and proper investments need to be made at the national level in curbing greenhouse gas...     

Biophysical suitability,economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R ² = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R ² = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.     

Effects of environmental factors on the seasonally change of phytoplankton populations in a closed freshwater pond.

The effect of environmental factors affecting the population dynamic of phytoplankton population was studied seasonally in a closed freshwater pond with the natural water of Lake Kasumigaura, Japan. The predominant phytoplankton species in the pond were classified as Oscillatoria tenuis, Synedra ulna, Chlamydomonas cingulata and Cyclotella kutzingiana, with dominant species of Melosira italica, Synechococcus sp. and Cryptomonas ovata. The most important limiting factor for filament length and cell size of most of the phytoplankton community was temperature. Availability of most nutrients had profound effects on the phytoplankton growth as nonlimiting factors. Based on our results, it is suggested that cell cycle progression was also temporally regulated by a multiplicity of external factors such as temperature, nutrients, dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH. At high pH and high temperature, consistent increase of cell division of some phytoplanketers such as Synedra, Cyclotella, Chlamydomonas and Melosira occurs, and there also may be species-specific responses for other species of phytoplankters. In addition, the cell divisions of phytoplankters are differentially regulated in different phytoplankton species.     

Persistent environmental pollutants in eggs of aplomado falcons from Northern Chihuahua, Mexico, and south Texas, USA

The northern aplomado falcon (Falco femoralis septentrionalis) disappeared from south Texas in the 1940s. Due to great success in the release of captive-reared aplomado falcons in south Texas, there are currently more than 40 established nesting pairs in the region. Addled eggs from aplomado falcons nesting in northern Chihuahua and south Texas were analyzed to determine organochlorine (OC) and inorganic element contaminant burdens and their potential association with egg failures and effects on reproduction. Among the OCs, DDE [1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene] was present at the highest concentrations (range 262-21487 ng/g wet weight) followed by polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs, range 88-3274 ng/g ww). DDE was greater (P=0.03) in eggs from El Sueco (Chihuahua, Mexico) than in those from Matagorda Island (Texas, USA). DDE concentrations in eggs of aplomado falcons from El Sueco were elevated; however, reproductive success in the two Chihuahuan populations did not seem to be affected by DDE. DDE and metals in potential avian prey of the aplomado falcon from Matagorda Island were very low and below levels in the diet at which some negative effects might be expected. Except for mercury (Hg), metal concentrations in eggs were fairly low and were not different among locations in Chihuahua and south Texas. Hg was somewhat elevated and was greater (P<0.001) in Texas than in the Chihuahua locations. Periodic monitoring of Hg concentrations in addled eggs of aplomado falcons in south Texas is recommended to continue evaluating potential negative effects on their recovery.     

环境约束下中国省际水资源两阶段效率及影响因素研究

本文把水资源利用系统分为水资源利用阶段和污染物处理阶段,在环境规制下采用考虑非期望产出的两阶段SBM模型,对2001—2014年中国31个省级行政区的水资源利用整体效率和各阶段效率进行测度,并利用空间自相关分析方法对中国各地区水资源利用整体效率的时空特征进行分析,然后运用考虑空间效应因素的空间滞后计量模型和空间误差计量模型从人均水资源量、工业用水量、生活用水量、人均GDP、对外开放程度、产业结构、技术进步等方面对各地区水资源利用整体效率的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)整体上看水资源利用第一阶段效率明显高于第二阶段效率,而整体效率接近于第二阶段效率,第二阶段效率决定了水资源利用整体有效性。(2)通过各阶段投入产出冗余来看,水资源污染物产出过多和处理不足是导致第二阶段效率不高的原因。(3)水资源利用整体效率的空间自相关强度显著大于0,在空间上呈现集聚分布特征,东部沿海地区为H-H集聚类型,中部和西部为L-L集聚类型。(4)各地区水资源利用整体效率存在空间溢出效应,一个地区的整体效率不仅受本地区因素影响,还受临近地区整体效率的影响。(5)在考虑和不考虑空间效应的计量估计结果中,工业用水量对整体效率产生显著的负向影响,而人均GDP、对外开放程度对整体效率产生显著的正向影响。根据实证结果,得出以下结论:一是加强水资源污染物排放管理,增强污水处理能力;二是实现高效工业用水,减少工业用水量;三是发挥各地区水资源禀赋优势,加强区域合作,优化水资源区域配置,促进经济-环境协调可持续发展。     

The influence of sociopolitical,natural, and cultural factors on international tourism growth: a cross-country panel analysis

This study employed a cross-country panel data model to investigate the relative contributions of sociopolitical, natural and cultural characteristics and national tourism policies to international tourism growth. International tourism receipt data were adjusted for country-specific inflation and then analyzed in relation to standardized measures of the World Economic Forum’s “pillars of tourism competitiveness.” Results indicated that international tourism receipts are more responsive to policies and regulations favoring tourism, abundance of natural resources, richness in cultural heritage, and health and hygiene than they are to infrastructure, safety, price competitiveness, and other variables. Findings highlight key factors associated with international tourism receipts and provide a general framework that could inform policies and management strategies designed to promote sustainable international tourism development.     

Assessing land use change and potential environmental quality in Chandernagore Municipal Corporation,India

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The study has focused on portraying the spatio-temporal changes in land use pattern from 2011 to 2019 and has tried to assess the environmental quality...     

Scenarios and story lines: drivers of land use change in southern Mexico

The study presents three scenarios of land use and cover change (LUCC), the most important factor for environmental degradation in southern Mexico. We developed story lines and quantitative projections for regional scenarios based on historic LUCC processes, environmental policies, socioeconomic drivers, stakeholder consultations and official planning documents to gain a better understanding of drivers of LUCC, and quantitative scenarios were modeled with DINAMICA-EGO. Regionally specific interactions between social and natural systems are recognized, and detrimental policies and policy options for landscape conservation and management for sustainability are acknowledged in a base line, variant and alternative scenario. Incongruent policies and ineffective ground implementation of conservation actions were identified as the critical underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation that could lead to a severe reduction in natural forests, while the local socioeconomic situation stays precarious. The baseline scenario parts from an analysis of historic LUCC processes and shows the consequences of LUCC tendencies: 73% of temperate forests and 50% of tropical forests would get deforested until 2030. In the variant scenario, these tendencies are adjusted to planning goals extracted from official documents and recent changes in public policies. The alternative scenario further addresses policy options for fostering conservation and sustainable development, but because of the time lag of implementation, still 59% of temperate forests and 36% of tropical forest would get lost until 2030. Nevertheless, this represents a reduction of 13% of forest loss and 11% less pastureland due to the proposed measures of conservation, and sustainable management, including strategies for reforming agricultural systems, agricultural and forestry policies and trade, land tenure and livelihood risk management.     

Investigating feasible sites for multi-purpose small dams in Swat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province,Pakistan: socioeconomic and environmental considerations

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The low water storage capacity caused water crisis in Pakistan; therefore, the country needs both small- and large-scale reservoirs to store surplus...     

Development,local livelihoods,and vulnerabilities to global environmental change in the South American Dry Andes

Climate change will increasingly impact large areas of South America, affecting important natural resources and people’s livelihoods. These impacts will make rural people disproportionately more vulnerable, given their dependency on ecosystem services and their exposure to other stressors, such as new rules imposed by agribusiness and trends toward the commodification of natural resources. This paper focuses on the vulnerability of rural communities in Andean drylands of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, showing how different economic and political pathways lead to different levels of vulnerability. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the methodological and theoretical concept of vulnerability, which framed the research. Starting from the premise that global environmental change impacts are strongly linked to styles of development, the discussion explores the diverse institutional capital and governance schemes as well as different development styles in the case studies and their role in increasing or reducing local vulnerability to climate and water scarcity. Using a comparative perspective, the exposures and adaptive capacities of rural actors in three river basins are discussed, emphasizing situations that speak for the ways in which development styles counteract or magnify conditions of vulnerability. The analysis considers irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, water property interests, different productive structures (viticulture, horticulture, etc.), producer typologies (large/small, export, etc.), and geographical location. Finally, the paper offers some insights about development style and adaptive capacities of rural people to overcome those vulnerabilities.     

Coastal wetland loss and environmental change due to rapid urban expansion in Lianyungang,Jiangsu, China

To address the growing need for developable land, many coastal cities are draining and filling wetlands, transforming them into urban built-up areas, and thereby substantially altering the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. We demonstrate an integrative approach for investigating the dynamics and impacts of coastal development in China’s Jiangsu Province, where urban expansion has resulted in extensive wetland losses and sea reclamation (the process of creating new land from ocean or coastal waters). Remotely sensed data reveal that landscape change in the study area has been accompanied by an increase in total impervious surface area and an increase in mean surface “heat island effect.” These indicators of change can be detected with remote sensing data and used to support a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) for urban coastal planning. Changes detected in Lianyungang during 2000–2006 suggest that reclaimed areas are environmentally sensitive and should be a focus of concern in future development planning, which has historically targeted coastal salt pond wetlands for conversion to land for the development. Given the current and projected rate of coastal development in China and elsewhere in the developing world, our findings and assessment approach have implications for coastal management decisions in the developing coastal zones of China and other regions of the world that are experiencing rapid urban growth.     

The Gathering Storm: managing adaptation to environmental change in coastal communities and small islands

Small island communities are inherently coastal communities, sharing many of the attributes and challenges faced by cities, towns and villages situated on the shores of larger islands and continents. In the context of rapidly changing climates, all coastal communities are challenged by their exposure to changing sea levels, to increasingly frequent and severe storms, and to the cumulative effects of higher storm surges. Across the globe, small island developing states, and small islands in larger states, are part of a distinctive set of stakeholders threatened, not only by climate change but also by shifting social, economic, and cultural conditions. C-Change is a collaborative International Community–University Research Alliance (ICURA) project whose goal is to assist participating coastal communities in Canada and the Caribbean region to share experiences and tools that aid adaptation to changes in their physical environment, including sea-level rise and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events associated with climate change. C-Change researchers have been working with eight partner communities to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks, to improve understanding of the ramifications of climate change to local conditions and local assets, and to increase capacity for planning for adaptation to their changing world. This paper reports on the knowledge gained and shared and the challenges to date in this ongoing collaboration between science and society.     

Land cover change and abrupt environmental impacts on Javan volcanoes, Indonesia: a long-term perspective on recent events

Based on a presentation of the spectacularly abrupt environmental and societal processes occurring on Java since the 1990s, and using that as an analogue to compare their consequences with the known environmental history of the island, we unravel the relative contributions of natural and human impacts in shaping the environment of Java. Our work is based on remote sensing, Geographical Information System analysis, field-based observations and measurements of responses to abrupt land cover changes in the last 10 years. Ecological disturbance has been endemic to the long-term history of Java, but montane forests on volcanoes have since ca. 1990 become the last frontier of colonisation and are for the first time rapidly receding. We reveal how human disturbance of natural ecosystems, today as in the past, tends to be the greatest where resistance is the least. This appears true within the regional setting of Southeast Asia, where Javan forests since the last glaciation have constituted a biogeographical ecotone with a limited natural ability to regenerate after some imbalance. It is equally true at the scale of single events where humans will turn a natural disturbance to their own advantage. Overall, it remains difficult to deconvolve the signals of spontaneous human impacts and of localised natural events such as volcanic activity, El Niño-related forest fires or longer climatic anomalies because humans are opportunistic in their attitudes to natural variability and so the two are often inextricably linked. The clearest impact on land cover and land degradation comes from the history of state-organised deforestation, whether colonial or indigenous, because its impact has been systematic, pervasive and regionally consistent. Javan environments have shown astonishing signs of resilience under the abrupt, cumulative impacts that have been inflicted over the last four centuries in successive iterations, possibly because the high-energy tropical and volcanic environment is a system in which sediment turnover is naturally rapid and where past scars of land degradation either heal rapidly or are soon destroyed by younger events. However, the volcanoes are the island’s keystone reservoirs of water, sediment and biodiversity and command the geomorphic metabolism of the lowlands. By removing forests from increasingly crowded mountain slopes, Javanese society is following a trajectory in which new nonlinear responses to environmental hazards and change may limit our capacity to anticipate and contain environmental risk to human life and property.     

Impact of demographic dynamics on CO_2 emissions in Sichuan,China

Global climate change is one of the major environmental issues faced by humans.Existing evidence indicates that the anthropogenic push for a rise in the atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases(GHGs)(particularly CO_2)has been a primary cause for global warming.Aside from economic and teclinological factors,demographic dynamics(including human consumption in a broad demographic sense)has been a major driver for CO_2 emissions.In this paper,we performed both nonlinear regression analysis(based on the STIRPAT model)and gray correlation degree analysis(based on gray system theory)on the impact of demographic dynamics on CO_2 emissions.Our results reveal that CO_2 emissions are positively correlated with population size and GDP per capita and negatively correlated with energy intensity.We also show that gray correlation degree with CO_2 emissions for five variables(i.e.,household consumption,urbanization rate,household size,population aging rate,population size)varies substantially:household consumptionurbanization ratehousehold sizepopulation aging ratepopulation size,with household consumption being the highest,and population size the lowest.To mitigate the impact of demographic dynamics on CO_2 emissions,it is of vital significance to nurture people's awareness of sustainable consumption and to adhere to current population control policies.     

Towards a spatially explicit and quantitative vulnerability assessment of environmental change in Europe

Over the next century, society will increasingly be confronted with the impacts of global change (e.g. pollution, land use changes, and climate change). Multiple scenarios provide us with a range of possible changes in socio-economic trends, land uses and climate (i.e. exposure) and allow us to assess the response of ecosystems and changes in the services they provide (i.e. potential impacts). Since vulnerability to global change is less when society is able to adapt, it is important to provide decision makers with tools that will allow them to assess and compare the vulnerability of different sectors and regions to global change, taking into account exposure and sensitivity, as well as adaptive capacity. This paper presents a method that allows quantitative spatial analyses of the vulnerability of the human-environment system on a European scale. It is a first step towards providing stakeholders and policy makers with a spatially explicit portfolio of comparable projections of ecosystem services, providing a basis for discussion on the sustainable management of Europe’s natural resources.

Evidence of response of vegetation to environmental change on high-elevation sites in the Swiss Alps

Climate change has in the past led to shifts in vegetation patterns; in a future, warmer climate due to enhanced greenhouse-gas concentrations, vegetation is also likely to be highly responsive to such warming. Mountain regions are considered to be particularly sensitive to such changes. In this paper we present an approach to assess the impact of climate change on long-term vegetation plots at the high-elevation site of the Schynige Platte, 2000 m above sea level, in the Bernese Alps (Switzerland). Records of vegetation spanning the period from 1928 to today at two different sites, each with several plots, were considered. The observed change in the species composition was then related to changes in land use and climate. We used daily values of temperature, snow and precipitation from several high-elevation weather stations to conduct these analyses. The correlation between climate and vegetation patterns revealed that species that prefer low thermal conditions move out of the plots, i.e., their frequency of occurrence is negatively correlated with the average number of degree-days over the last six decades. On the other hand, species with higher thermal demands are seen to be invading the plots, i.e., their frequency of occurrence is positively correlated to the average number of degree-days. Nutrient changes – though independent from climate – also play an important role in the observed shifts in species. Received: 20 June 1999 · Accepted: 14 January 2000     

A global empirical typology of anthropogenic drivers of environmental change in deltas

It is broadly recognized that river delta systems around the world are under threat from a range of anthropogenic activities. These activities occur at the local delta scale, at the regional river and watershed scale, and at the global scale. Tools are needed to support generalization of results from case studies in specific deltas. Here, we present a methodology for quantitatively constructing an empirical typology of anthropogenic change in global deltas. Utilizing a database of environmental change indicators, each associated with increased relative sea-level rise and coastal wetland loss, a clustering analysis of 48 global deltas provides a quantitative assessment of systems experiencing similar or dissimilar sources and degrees of anthropogenic stress. By identifying quantitatively similar systems, we hope to improve the transferability of scientific results across systems, and increase the effectiveness of delta management best practices. Both K-Means and Affinity Propagation clustering algorithms find similar clusters, with relative stability across small changes in K-Means cluster number. High-latitude deltas appear similar, in terms of anthropogenic environmental stress, to several low-population, low-latitude systems, including the Amazon delta, despite substantially different climatic regimes. Highly urbanized deltas in Southeast Asia form a distinct cluster. By providing a quantitative boundary between groups of delta systems, this approach may also be useful for assessing future delta change and sustainability given projected population growth, urbanization, and economic development trends.