The role of household demographic factors in shaping transportation spending in Turkey

Environment, Development and Sustainability - Factors at the family scale, for which dynamic decisions and proper investments need to be made at the national level in curbing greenhouse gas...     

Crop responses to climate and socioeconomic change in northern regions

Climate, farmers’ actions and previous cultivation history influence regional crop yields and drive autonomous adaptation in time. Proceeding climate change will induce needs for various adaptation measures in the future, especially in the northern regions. We investigated how farms take advantage of novel opportunities in Finland as dictated by the biophysical environment, farmer experience and knowledge, and the dynamics of the socioeconomic environment. Using Finland as a case, we aimed to characterize the relation of regional climate and yield development of the four major cereal crops since 1965 and of spring rape since 1978. Yields in the northernmost regions were most responsive to growing season temperature sum and precipitation. However, yield levels in southern relative to northern and eastern areas have polarized through the period, which might be an indication of a socioeconomic rather than a climate-related response. As socioeconomic factors can be more deterministic for targeting autonomous adaptation on farms, regionally planned proactive adaptation strategies are needed to prepare for long-term changes such as the climate change.     

Biophysical suitability,economic pressure and land-cover change: a global probabilistic approach and insights for REDD+

There has been a concerted effort by the international scientific community to understand the multiple causes and patterns of land-cover change to support sustainable land management. Here, we examined biophysical suitability, and a novel integrated index of “Economic Pressure on Land” (EPL) to explain land cover in the year 2000, and estimated the likelihood of future land-cover change through 2050, including protected area effectiveness. Biophysical suitability and EPL explained almost half of the global pattern of land cover (R ² = 0.45), increasing to almost two-thirds in areas where a long-term equilibrium is likely to have been reached (e.g. R ² = 0.64 in Europe). We identify a high likelihood of future land-cover change in vast areas with relatively lower current and past deforestation (e.g. the Congo Basin). Further, we simulated emissions arising from a “business as usual” and two reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) scenarios by incorporating data on biomass carbon. As our model incorporates all biome types, it highlights a crucial aspect of the ongoing REDD + debate: if restricted to forests, “cross-biome leakage” would severely reduce REDD + effectiveness for climate change mitigation. If forests were protected from deforestation yet without measures to tackle the drivers of land-cover change, REDD + would only reduce 30 % of total emissions from land-cover change. Fifty-five percent of emissions reductions from forests would be compensated by increased emissions in other biomes. These results suggest that, although REDD + remains a very promising mitigation tool, implementation of complementary measures to reduce land demand is necessary to prevent this leakage.     

Effects of environmental factors on the seasonally change of phytoplankton populations in a closed freshwater pond.

The effect of environmental factors affecting the population dynamic of phytoplankton population was studied seasonally in a closed freshwater pond with the natural water of Lake Kasumigaura, Japan. The predominant phytoplankton species in the pond were classified as Oscillatoria tenuis, Synedra ulna, Chlamydomonas cingulata and Cyclotella kutzingiana, with dominant species of Melosira italica, Synechococcus sp. and Cryptomonas ovata. The most important limiting factor for filament length and cell size of most of the phytoplankton community was temperature. Availability of most nutrients had profound effects on the phytoplankton growth as nonlimiting factors. Based on our results, it is suggested that cell cycle progression was also temporally regulated by a multiplicity of external factors such as temperature, nutrients, dissolved oxygen (DO) and pH. At high pH and high temperature, consistent increase of cell division of some phytoplanketers such as Synedra, Cyclotella, Chlamydomonas and Melosira occurs, and there also may be species-specific responses for other species of phytoplankters. In addition, the cell divisions of phytoplankters are differentially regulated in different phytoplankton species.     

The influence of Chinese population policy change on resources and the environment

Universal two-child policy has been implemented since the end of 2015 in China. This policy is anticipated to bring a significant increase in the total population, with profound influences on the resources and environment in the future. This paper analyzes the changing dynamics of urban and rural population, and forecasts urban and rural population from 2016 to 2030 at national and provincial scale using a double log linear regression model. Drawing upon the results of these two predictions, the impact of the population policy change on Chinese resources consumption and environmental pollution are predicted quantitatively. Given the future total population maintains current levels on resources consumption and environmental emission, the additional demand of resources and environment demand for the new population is forecasted and compared against the capacity on supply side. The findings are as follows: after implementing the universal two-child policy, China’s grain, energy consumption, domestic water demand, and pollutant emissions are projected to increase at different rates across provinces. To meet the needs arising from future population growth, food and energy self-sufficiency rate will be significantly reduced in the future, while relying more on imports. Stability of the water supply needs to be improved, especially in Beijing, Henan, Jiangsu, Qinghai, and Sichuan where the gap in future domestic water demand is comparatively larger. Environmental protection and associated governing capability are in urgent need of upgrade not least due to the increasing pressure of pollution.     

Long-term land-cover/use change in a traditional farming landscape in Romania inferred from pollen data,historical maps and satellite images

Regional Environmental Change - Traditional farming landscapes in the temperate zone that have persisted for millennia can be exceptionally species-rich and are therefore key conservation targets....     

Persistent environmental pollutants in eggs of aplomado falcons from Northern Chihuahua, Mexico, and south Texas, USA

The northern aplomado falcon (Falco femoralis septentrionalis) disappeared from south Texas in the 1940s. Due to great success in the release of captive-reared aplomado falcons in south Texas, there are currently more than 40 established nesting pairs in the region. Addled eggs from aplomado falcons nesting in northern Chihuahua and south Texas were analyzed to determine organochlorine (OC) and inorganic element contaminant burdens and their potential association with egg failures and effects on reproduction. Among the OCs, DDE [1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophenyl)ethylene] was present at the highest concentrations (range 262-21487 ng/g wet weight) followed by polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs, range 88-3274 ng/g ww). DDE was greater (P=0.03) in eggs from El Sueco (Chihuahua, Mexico) than in those from Matagorda Island (Texas, USA). DDE concentrations in eggs of aplomado falcons from El Sueco were elevated; however, reproductive success in the two Chihuahuan populations did not seem to be affected by DDE. DDE and metals in potential avian prey of the aplomado falcon from Matagorda Island were very low and below levels in the diet at which some negative effects might be expected. Except for mercury (Hg), metal concentrations in eggs were fairly low and were not different among locations in Chihuahua and south Texas. Hg was somewhat elevated and was greater (P<0.001) in Texas than in the Chihuahua locations. Periodic monitoring of Hg concentrations in addled eggs of aplomado falcons in south Texas is recommended to continue evaluating potential negative effects on their recovery.     

Investigating environmental migration and other rural drought adaptation strategies in Baja California Sur,Mexico

Regional Environmental Change - This paper explores the relationship between specific household traits (region of residence, head of household occupation, financial diversity, female level of...     

环境约束下中国省际水资源两阶段效率及影响因素研究

本文把水资源利用系统分为水资源利用阶段和污染物处理阶段,在环境规制下采用考虑非期望产出的两阶段SBM模型,对2001—2014年中国31个省级行政区的水资源利用整体效率和各阶段效率进行测度,并利用空间自相关分析方法对中国各地区水资源利用整体效率的时空特征进行分析,然后运用考虑空间效应因素的空间滞后计量模型和空间误差计量模型从人均水资源量、工业用水量、生活用水量、人均GDP、对外开放程度、产业结构、技术进步等方面对各地区水资源利用整体效率的影响因素进行分析。结果表明:(1)整体上看水资源利用第一阶段效率明显高于第二阶段效率,而整体效率接近于第二阶段效率,第二阶段效率决定了水资源利用整体有效性。(2)通过各阶段投入产出冗余来看,水资源污染物产出过多和处理不足是导致第二阶段效率不高的原因。(3)水资源利用整体效率的空间自相关强度显著大于0,在空间上呈现集聚分布特征,东部沿海地区为H-H集聚类型,中部和西部为L-L集聚类型。(4)各地区水资源利用整体效率存在空间溢出效应,一个地区的整体效率不仅受本地区因素影响,还受临近地区整体效率的影响。(5)在考虑和不考虑空间效应的计量估计结果中,工业用水量对整体效率产生显著的负向影响,而人均GDP、对外开放程度对整体效率产生显著的正向影响。根据实证结果,得出以下结论:一是加强水资源污染物排放管理,增强污水处理能力;二是实现高效工业用水,减少工业用水量;三是发挥各地区水资源禀赋优势,加强区域合作,优化水资源区域配置,促进经济-环境协调可持续发展。     

The influence of uncertainty and location-specific conditions on the environmental prioritisation of human pharmaceuticals in Europe

The selection of priority APIs (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) can benefit from a spatially explicit approach, since an API might exceed the threshold of environmental concern in one location, while staying below that same threshold in another. However, such a spatially explicit approach is relatively data intensive and subject to parameter uncertainty due to limited data. This raises the question to what extent a spatially explicit approach for the environmental prioritisation of APIs remains worthwhile when accounting for uncertainty in parameter settings. We show here that the inclusion of spatially explicit information enables a more efficient environmental prioritisation of APIs in Europe, compared with a non-spatial EU-wide approach, also under uncertain conditions. In a case study with nine antibiotics, uncertainty distributions of the PAF (Potentially Affected Fraction) of aquatic species were calculated in 100 1 100 km² environmental grid cells throughout Europe, and used for the selection of priority APIs. Two APIs have median PAF values that exceed a threshold PAF of 1% in at least one environmental grid cell in Europe, i.e., oxytetracycline and erythromycin. At a tenfold lower threshold PAF (i.e., 0.1%), two additional APIs would be selected, i.e., cefuroxime and ciprofloxacin. However, in 94% of the environmental grid cells in Europe, no APIs exceed either of the thresholds. This illustrates the advantage of following a location-specific approach in the prioritisation of APIs. This added value remains when accounting for uncertainty in parameter settings, i.e., if the 95th percentile of the PAF instead of its median value is compared with the threshold. In 96% of the environmental grid cells, the location-specific approach still enables a reduction of the selection of priority APIs of at least 50%, compared with a EU-wide prioritisation.     

The influence of sociopolitical,natural, and cultural factors on international tourism growth: a cross-country panel analysis

This study employed a cross-country panel data model to investigate the relative contributions of sociopolitical, natural and cultural characteristics and national tourism policies to international tourism growth. International tourism receipt data were adjusted for country-specific inflation and then analyzed in relation to standardized measures of the World Economic Forum’s “pillars of tourism competitiveness.” Results indicated that international tourism receipts are more responsive to policies and regulations favoring tourism, abundance of natural resources, richness in cultural heritage, and health and hygiene than they are to infrastructure, safety, price competitiveness, and other variables. Findings highlight key factors associated with international tourism receipts and provide a general framework that could inform policies and management strategies designed to promote sustainable international tourism development.     

Environmental kuznets curve and causal links between environmental degradation and selected socioeconomic indicators in Bangladesh

Environment, Development and Sustainability - This study has investigated the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis and focuses on the resource stock of the country in relation to the...     

Assessing land use change and potential environmental quality in Chandernagore Municipal Corporation,India

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The study has focused on portraying the spatio-temporal changes in land use pattern from 2011 to 2019 and has tried to assess the environmental quality...     

Scenarios and story lines: drivers of land use change in southern Mexico

The study presents three scenarios of land use and cover change (LUCC), the most important factor for environmental degradation in southern Mexico. We developed story lines and quantitative projections for regional scenarios based on historic LUCC processes, environmental policies, socioeconomic drivers, stakeholder consultations and official planning documents to gain a better understanding of drivers of LUCC, and quantitative scenarios were modeled with DINAMICA-EGO. Regionally specific interactions between social and natural systems are recognized, and detrimental policies and policy options for landscape conservation and management for sustainability are acknowledged in a base line, variant and alternative scenario. Incongruent policies and ineffective ground implementation of conservation actions were identified as the critical underlying drivers of deforestation and forest degradation that could lead to a severe reduction in natural forests, while the local socioeconomic situation stays precarious. The baseline scenario parts from an analysis of historic LUCC processes and shows the consequences of LUCC tendencies: 73% of temperate forests and 50% of tropical forests would get deforested until 2030. In the variant scenario, these tendencies are adjusted to planning goals extracted from official documents and recent changes in public policies. The alternative scenario further addresses policy options for fostering conservation and sustainable development, but because of the time lag of implementation, still 59% of temperate forests and 36% of tropical forest would get lost until 2030. Nevertheless, this represents a reduction of 13% of forest loss and 11% less pastureland due to the proposed measures of conservation, and sustainable management, including strategies for reforming agricultural systems, agricultural and forestry policies and trade, land tenure and livelihood risk management.     

Investigating feasible sites for multi-purpose small dams in Swat District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province,Pakistan: socioeconomic and environmental considerations

Environment, Development and Sustainability - The low water storage capacity caused water crisis in Pakistan; therefore, the country needs both small- and large-scale reservoirs to store surplus...     

Development,local livelihoods,and vulnerabilities to global environmental change in the South American Dry Andes

Climate change will increasingly impact large areas of South America, affecting important natural resources and people’s livelihoods. These impacts will make rural people disproportionately more vulnerable, given their dependency on ecosystem services and their exposure to other stressors, such as new rules imposed by agribusiness and trends toward the commodification of natural resources. This paper focuses on the vulnerability of rural communities in Andean drylands of Argentina, Bolivia, and Chile, showing how different economic and political pathways lead to different levels of vulnerability. The paper begins with a brief discussion of the methodological and theoretical concept of vulnerability, which framed the research. Starting from the premise that global environmental change impacts are strongly linked to styles of development, the discussion explores the diverse institutional capital and governance schemes as well as different development styles in the case studies and their role in increasing or reducing local vulnerability to climate and water scarcity. Using a comparative perspective, the exposures and adaptive capacities of rural actors in three river basins are discussed, emphasizing situations that speak for the ways in which development styles counteract or magnify conditions of vulnerability. The analysis considers irrigated and non-irrigated agriculture, water property interests, different productive structures (viticulture, horticulture, etc.), producer typologies (large/small, export, etc.), and geographical location. Finally, the paper offers some insights about development style and adaptive capacities of rural people to overcome those vulnerabilities.     

Coastal wetland loss and environmental change due to rapid urban expansion in Lianyungang,Jiangsu, China

To address the growing need for developable land, many coastal cities are draining and filling wetlands, transforming them into urban built-up areas, and thereby substantially altering the structure and function of coastal ecosystems. We demonstrate an integrative approach for investigating the dynamics and impacts of coastal development in China’s Jiangsu Province, where urban expansion has resulted in extensive wetland losses and sea reclamation (the process of creating new land from ocean or coastal waters). Remotely sensed data reveal that landscape change in the study area has been accompanied by an increase in total impervious surface area and an increase in mean surface “heat island effect.” These indicators of change can be detected with remote sensing data and used to support a strategic environmental assessment (SEA) for urban coastal planning. Changes detected in Lianyungang during 2000–2006 suggest that reclaimed areas are environmentally sensitive and should be a focus of concern in future development planning, which has historically targeted coastal salt pond wetlands for conversion to land for the development. Given the current and projected rate of coastal development in China and elsewhere in the developing world, our findings and assessment approach have implications for coastal management decisions in the developing coastal zones of China and other regions of the world that are experiencing rapid urban growth.     

The Gathering Storm: managing adaptation to environmental change in coastal communities and small islands

Small island communities are inherently coastal communities, sharing many of the attributes and challenges faced by cities, towns and villages situated on the shores of larger islands and continents. In the context of rapidly changing climates, all coastal communities are challenged by their exposure to changing sea levels, to increasingly frequent and severe storms, and to the cumulative effects of higher storm surges. Across the globe, small island developing states, and small islands in larger states, are part of a distinctive set of stakeholders threatened, not only by climate change but also by shifting social, economic, and cultural conditions. C-Change is a collaborative International Community–University Research Alliance (ICURA) project whose goal is to assist participating coastal communities in Canada and the Caribbean region to share experiences and tools that aid adaptation to changes in their physical environment, including sea-level rise and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events associated with climate change. C-Change researchers have been working with eight partner communities to identify threats, vulnerabilities, and risks, to improve understanding of the ramifications of climate change to local conditions and local assets, and to increase capacity for planning for adaptation to their changing world. This paper reports on the knowledge gained and shared and the challenges to date in this ongoing collaboration between science and society.