"数字石羊河"建立及其在沙尘暴防治中的应用

由于上游超量用水,导致石羊河下游的民勤县绿洲无水可用,生态环境严重恶化,成为我国的第四大沙尘暴策源地.本文提出了建立"数字石羊河"的概念,认为石羊河流域要建立公平的用水机制,在技术上要建立"数字石羊河",最后对"数字石羊河"在沙尘暴防治中的应用作了分析.     

Food Crises, Crisis Response and Emergency Preparedness: The Sudan Case

Food security problems should be seen as "normal" in and endemic to subsistence agricultural groups in semi-arid zones of developing countries. Natural, popular response mechanisms exist that address these problems when they are at "normal" levels. All response mechanisms in developing countries can be expected to be swamped in times of a major food emergency. During major crises international relief assistance will continue to play a crucial role. Attempts at imposing centralized, institutional social security systems that address the normal "pockets of need" syndrome will be extremely expensive, not self-sustaining, and prone to failure. In that these efforts may undermine natural response mechanisms and draw scarce resources away from more logical, decentralized relief agencies these efforts may prove dangerously counter-productive.     

Food aid and relief-development strategies*

This paper begins by setting out the main arguments on which a proposal for "relief-development strategies" rest. The second part of the paper is concerned with a discussion of the way the objectives of a "relief-development strategy" might be achieved and the roles emergency food aid might have. In the third part of the paper, a number of strategic issues are discussed. A stylized account is presented of how a broad "relief development strategy" might be mounted. The last part of the paper draws together the discussion by considering how emergency projects should be assessed. If the principles on which this paper are based are accepted, then the evaluation of emergency projects should extend well beyond convention.     

The vulnerability of small island States to sea level rise: the need for holistic strategies

There is uncertainty about climate change and its socioenvironmental implications, but the vulnerability of small island states to hazardous events is likely to become increasingly significant. It will not be a normally benign sea that rises but the incidence of storms and cyclones can be assumed to increase with tropical sea-surface temperatures. The proportional socioeconomic impact of tropical cyclone disasters makes these of crucial significance to small islands and small island states. Sea-defences are of little use (and may not be feasible at all) against the damage caused by tropical cyclones and some sea-surges. Social and economic adjustments are also required to parallel erosion control; and disaster preparedness "longstops" must be further developed as a matter of urgency. Apparently small measures must not be displaced by images of ultimate, massive catastrophe; adjustments may serve other functions in society as well. International and bilateral measures are required to take account of migration and"ecological refugees" and national administrations may require modification to take appropriate account of this most crucial of environmental phenomena.     

地震救援能力的一项指标--地震灾害发布时间的研究

地震救援能力一般很难给定.本文提出利用地震死亡人数的报出时间作为衡量指标来评价地震的救援能力.首先,需要指出,地震发生后存在"黑箱"时间,即地震发生至灾情报出时间;其次,报出灾情后救灾进入"灰箱"状态,而地震死亡人数报出时间长度与总死亡人数有关;再次,死亡人数基本报出时间的长短,反映了救援能力的强弱.     

不同振动幅值时建筑自振周期值的差异及统计关系

本文通过对建筑模型试验、原型实测、强震观测结果的分析对比,提供相应于新的抗震设计规范(GBJ11—89)“大震”、“小震”时建筑自振基本周期的一种求解方法。此处,还给出求解高层建筑某些高振型周期的统计结果。这些成果在工程计算时加以运用是可行的。     

自然灾害基本定义的探讨

自然灾害的研究,正在变为一门热门的学科.然而,大多数人是通过举例来回答"什么是自然灾害?"这一问题,一些学者则干脆对此避而不谈.显然,如果对"自然灾害"这一概念没有严格的定义,如果人们只热衷于提出各种概念模型,热衷于案例分析,则"自然灾害学"就很难上升为一门科学内核清楚的学科.从分析定义的本质人手,梳理出下定义的4条规则,指出了现有5个自然灾害定义的不足之处,建议了一个自然灾害的基本定义,并用它分别对<国家综合减灾"十一五"规划>中提及的13种自然灾害进行了界定.     

Dilemmas and challenges for the shelter sector: lessons learned from the Sphere revision process

Key dilemmas and challenges for those involved in the shelter sector are described, based on issues that emerged from the extensive global consultative process undertaken to inform the revision of the Sphere handbook. The range of perspectives on the major themes is presented, with suggestions as to how these issues could be progressed. Themes include the poor definition of the sector and the lack of a consistent approach among the leading shelter actors; the absence of a common terminology; the conflict between "temporary" versus "durable" solutions; the disconnect between technical advisers and the field; the need for greater recognition of local coping strategies and the local context; the involvement of recipients and host governments in policy development; the need for better "how-to" guidance; and the limited incorporation of the emerging themes of livelihoods etc. to date.     

火灾后钢筋混凝土损伤程度的灰关联分析

由于火灾对钢筋混凝土结构的影响存在不确定性,使得人们不能准确地确定火灾后钢筋混凝土结构的损伤程度,给评估和加固修复带来很大困难。本文运用灰色系统理论中灰关联分析数学模型定量分析了高温下钢筋混凝土梁的3种影响因素,并确定了各因素间的主次关系,为高温后钢筋混凝土结构的安全评估及修复加固提供了理论依据。     

Mapping social vulnerability to flood hazard in Norfolk,England

In this paper, we present a method to assess social vulnerability through the creation of an Open Source Vulnerability Index (OS-VI). The OS-VI provides context to environmental hazards and allows NGOs and local agencies to better tailor services and provide targeted pre-emptive vulnerability reduction and resilience-building programmes. A deductive indicator-based approach is utilised to incorporate a wide range of vulnerability indicators known to influence vulnerability. Unlike many vulnerability indices, the OS-VI incorporates flood risk as well as the loss of capabilities and the importance of key services (health facilities and food stores) through the measurement of accessibility when determining an area's level of social vulnerability. The index was developed using open-source mapping and analysis software and is composed completely of open-source data from national data sets. The OS-VI was designed at the national level, with data for all proxy indicators available across the entirety of England and Wales. For this paper, a case study is presented concerned with one English county, Norfolk.

Highlights

• We produce an open-source vulnerability index.

• Accessibility to health care found to be severely affected by flooding.

• High vulnerability areas found to be disproportionately impacted by flooding.

• Urban extent of an area found to increase its level of vulnerability.

• Flood affected areas more likely to be composed of elderly, sick and poor.

     

灾害造成人员伤亡价值损失的评估

根据灾害造成的人员伤亡的特点和灾害损失评估的目的 ,提出了评估灾害造成人员伤亡价值损失的基本原则 ,即系统化评估原则、从整个国家和社会的角度出发进行评估的原则、基于灾害后果的评估原则、“有无对比”的原则、货币计量与非货币计量相结合以货币计量为主的原则、不考虑沉没成本的原则和基于未来获利能力的原则。在给出灾害造成的人员伤亡的数量及其分布状况的假设后 ,应用人力资源价值理论 ,提出了评估灾害造成的人员伤亡价值损失的方法和模型。为采用统一价值尺度评估灾害损失提供了基础 ,也使得灾害损失评估理论与方法体系更趋于完善。     

地震减灾体系中的区域联防问题

地震灾害是我国主要的自然灾害之一。现阶段,减轻地震灾害的主要途径是在努力提高地震监测预报水平的基础上,发挥政府、社会和地震科技队伍三方面的作用,坚持以预防为主,建立地震减灾工作体系,走综合减灾的道路。行使政府职能是地震减灾工作体系的中心环节,职能的行使以一级政府的行政管辖范围为“边界”。但我国大陆地区已发生的大震和当前的重点监视防御区多分布于二省、三省或更多省市交界地区。突破行政区划,在地震活动区、危险区周围协调地开展监测、预报、宣传、防御工作是当前进行防震减灾战略布局所必需。地震科学发展的“跨”行政区划和政府行政职能的严格区划性的尖锐矛盾,有必要提出地震减灾中的区域联防问题,本文是有关这个问题的分析与建议。     

信息数字化与雾的细化预测

在先前工作的基础上,尝试了信息数字化细化取样的细化分析方法.结果表明:雾的分析和预测效果更能得到"落点"预测的实效性改善.     

The Food and Nutrition Surveillance Systems of Chad and Mali: The "SAP" After Two Years

The "Systèmes d'Alerte Précoce" - the SAPs - of Chad and Mali have been in operation since April 1986. Their purpose is to forecast (or more realistically, detect as early as possible) food shortages in the drought-prone areas of each country. They are based on a multidisciplinary strategy, taking into account all relevant phenomena, from meteorology to nutritional status, and are implemented through the governmental networks. The present experience shows that, compared with the devastations due to famine and the cost of emergency food aid, they are not that expensive and they seem sustainable over the long term.
"Faultless" prediction is not yet the rule, but several procedures permit progressive improvement in the ability of the systems to analyse and interpret.
This paper explains the functioning process of the SAPs and presents several operational results. Additionally, it covers innovative concepts that have proved to be successful, such as the "participative information network".     

区域社会经济“易灾性”综合评价实践

本文从时间——空间两个角度,结合某一城市,对其社会经济“易灾性”进行综合评价和分析,其结果可为灾害损失预测,防灾费用投放规划,防灾工程评价等防灾决策领域提供依据。     

江苏省雷暴气候特征分析

利用江苏省历年雷暴统计资料 ,运用保证率公式计算了江苏省各地区的雷暴可能初日和终日等时空特征 ,为采取相应措施预防雷带来的灾害提供了依据     

中国地震应急二级分区的初步研究

在已有地震应急宏观分区研究的基础上,首先讨论了进一步开展地震应急次级分区的意义及其分区方案的多样性;然后提取“政治经济强辐射中心、少数民族聚居区、贫困人口聚居区、侨乡、大型工业危险源”等5方面社会经济因素在不同县域内的10种主要组合类型作为区划指标,采取“自下而上归并”的区划途径,进行了中国地震应急二级分区研究。结果表明,在将我国大陆划分为8个地震应急一级大区的基础上,从社会经济角度又可大致划分出19个二级区;二级区的划分进一步揭示了不同地区开展地震应急工作时应注意的一些较具体的社会经济问题及其空间配置特点;两级分区的结合从“宏观概括”和“中观具体”两个层次示范了地震应急分区研究的基本内容。     

Famine intensity and magnitude scales: a proposal for an instrumental definition of famine

Ambiguities in current usage of the term "famine" have had tragic implications for response and accountability in a number of recent food crises. This paper proposes a new approach to defining famine based on the use of intensity and magnitude scales, where "intensity" refers to the severity of the crisis at a given location and point in time, while "magnitude" describes the aggregate impact of a crisis. The scales perform three operations on "famine": first, moving from a binary conception of "famine/no famine" to a graduated, multi-level definition; second, disaggregating the dimensions of intensity and magnitude; and third, assigning harmonised "objective" criteria in place of subjective, case-by-case judgements. If adopted, the famine scales should contribute to more effective and proportionate responses, as well as greater accountability in future food crises.     

三维激光扫描技术在堰塞湖地形快速测量中的应用

使用三维激光扫描仪整合雷达系统、GPS系统可使地形高程测量作业迅速而准确。本文旨在探讨三维激光扫描仪与GPS坐标转换的方法及地形测量作业流程。实践证明,三维激光扫描技术在"5.12"汶川大地震造成的安县肖家桥、罐滩堰塞湖测量中的应用是高效的,它具有测量速度快、精度高、人力使用少、适应复杂现场环境等优点,能为突发地质灾害抢险决策迅速地提供地形资料,具有较大的应用潜力。     

Effective Communication between the Scientific Community and the Media

There are many accounts of hazard warnings which, although received by the target population, have not been appropriately understood and/or acted upon. In all such cases, what needs to be explored is a social relational failure rather than a technological one. Although the relationship between the mass media and the general public has been thoroughly explored, that between the media and the scientific community has been generally neglected. Scientists who communicate warning information to the media must recognise the background, commitments, values, needs and expectations of those they communicate with. Their efforts should be directed at conveying information in a way which is useful to the target population and, at the same time, which appeals to the media. Various "communication strategies" for the achievement of this goal are outlined.