The Economic Consequences of Alien Plant Invasions: Examples of Impacts and Approaches to Sustainable Management in South Africa

The invasion of natural ecosystems by alien plants is a serious environmental problem that threatens the sustainable use of benefits derived from such ecosytems. Most past studies in this field have focussed on the history, ecology and management of invasive alien species, and little work has been done on the economic aspects and consequences of invasions. This paper reviews what is known of the economic consequences of alien plant invasions in South Africa. These economic arguments have been used to successfully launch the largest environmental management programme in Africa.Ten million hectares of South Africa has been invaded by 180 alien species, but their impacts are not fully understood, although they are undoubtedly significant. The indications are that the total costs of these impacts are substantial. Selected studies show that invasions have reduced the value of fynbos ecosystems by over US$ 11.75 billion; that the total cost of invasion would be about US$ 3.2 billion on the Agulhas Plain alone; that the net present cost of invasion by black wattles amounts to US$ 1.4 billion; that invasions by red water fern have cost US$ 58 million; and that the cost to clear the alien plant invasions in South Africa is around US$ 1.2 billion. These few examples indicate that the economic consequences of invasions are huge.One of the unique aspects of invasive plant control programmes in South Africa has been the ability to leverage further benefits (mainly through employment) for the expensive control programmes from the government's poverty relief budget. This has made it possible to allocate substantial funding to a programme that would otherwise have struggled to obtain significant support. Biological control of invasive species also offers considerable benefits, but is often the subject of debate. We believe that, at least in the case of many invasive alien plant species in South Africa, biological control offers one of the best, and most cost-effective, interventions for addressing the problem.     

VALUING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES OF CHILEAN TEMPERATE RAINFORESTS

The Valdivian Rainforest Ecoregion (35°–48° S) in southern South America is among the ecosystems with highest conservation priority worldwide due to its rich diversity, degree of endemism, and critical conservation status. Temperate rainforests in this vast area are essential as source of biological resources and to maintain different ecosystem services which remain largely unmeasured and unvalued. Consequently, the benefits they provide are not reflected in decision-making regarding forest management and conservation. Based on existing studies and results from ongoing research we describe selected ecosystem services and provide estimates of their economic value. Timber benefits for secondary forests expressed as net present stumpage values were US$ 3742 ha⁻¹ and US$ 3093 ha⁻¹ for sustainable forest management (SFM) and unsustainable harvesting, respectively. Timber benefits for old growth forests␣equaled US$ 4546 ha⁻¹ and US$ 5718 ha⁻¹, for SFM and unsustainable harvesting, respectively, using an 8% discount rate. Annual benefits from recreation were US$ 1.6 ha⁻¹ and US$ 6.3 ha⁻¹ for the two most important national parks located in the study area. The annual value of maintaining soil fertility was US$ 26.3 ha⁻¹ using the replacement cost of nutrient losses due to soil erosion. The annual economic value of water supply for human consumption using the production function method was US$ 235 ha⁻¹. These results provide valuable information on the kind and magnitude of values that could be relevant in decision-making concerning conservation and management of native forests in the Valdivian Rainforest Ecoregion.     

Environmental accounting of natural capital and ecosystem services for the US National Forest System

The National Forests of the United States encompass 192.7?million acres (78?million hectares) of land, which is nearly five percent of the total land area of the nation. These lands are managed by the US Forest Service (USFS) for multiple uses, including extraction of timber, production of fossil fuels and minerals, public recreation, and the preservation of biodiversity, clean air, water, and soils. The USFS is interested in valuing the natural capital within, and the ecosystem services provided by, their lands. This is in part to justify expenditures in a time of limited resources. We used emergy and an environmental accounting approach, to quantify the ecosystem services, the exported environmental goods and information provided by National Forest System (NFS) lands, and the natural capital residing on those lands. Environmental accounting using emergy provides a method to value these flows of services and storages of capital using a common biophysical unit, the solar emjoule and its monetary equivalent the emdollar. We compare emdollar values to economic values gleaned from the literature. In 2005, the ecosystem services provided by USFS lands were equivalent to 197?billion emdollars, and the value of NFS natural capital was 24.3?trillion emdollars. Our evaluation suggests that the Federal Government budget allocation for the NFS ($5.55E+09 in 2005) was well spent, protecting 24.3?trillion emdollars in natural capital and insuring annual ecosystem services totaling 197?billion emdollars. Monetary values for some natural capital and ecosystem services are similar to emergy-derived values (resources like fish, wildlife, water, and firewood extracted from forests), and others are widely different (biodiversity, fossil, and mineral resources). There is large uncertainty associated with computing the environment’s contributions to society whether using emergy or accepted economic techniques; yet, the magnitude of these emergy-derived estimates suggests that even with the uncertainty, the values are significant and monetary expenditures for the Forest Service are justified.     

Water Resource Management in Botswana: Balancing Sustainability and Economic Development*

Botswana is a rapidly developing country in southern Africa. Over the last three decades, diamond mining and tourism have provided double-digit rates of economic growth. Yet most of Botswana’s land is in the Kalahari desert where the climate is subject to sustained periods of severe drought. In this environment, water resources are the most crucial of all environmental resources. Water use directly affects economic development because water utilization impacts all the major national economic sectors. A sustainable water use resource management plan must stretch several decades into the future to assure the availability of adequate supplies of water to future generations while not compromising the ability of the current generation to reasonable rates of economic development. Yet thinking about sustainability is present in Botswana water policy mostly only in rhetoric. A series of cultural traditions and political constraints, coupled with bureaucratic managerial weaknesses, serve to maintain a system of water allocation that is unsustainable in the long run and inefficient in the short-term. Unless sustainable water use patterns are adopted, the results for the short-term, as well as the long-term, will be devastating. Drawing on data obtained through a series of interviews with government officials, leaders of non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and water resource researchers, this paper explores water policy in Botswana within the larger context of sustainable natural resource management practice and the pressures of economic development. This research was partially funded under U.S. Department of State, College and University Affiliations Grant # ASCS-1095.     

基于省际间粮食贸易的虚拟水综合效益分析

虚拟水概念丰富水资源的形态与内涵,其价值不仅表现在人口-粮食-贸易为纽带的虚拟水贸易上,还表现在其社会属性上。基于虚拟水的双重价值,结合全国粮食各地产消平衡数据,构建线性优化模型,估算我国粮食省际间贸易的虚拟水流动格局,从资源、经济、环境3方面出发分析虚拟水流动引发的综合效益。结果发现：我国粮食省际间贸易的虚拟水流动格局表现为北水南运的特点,同实体水的南水北调形成互补,水资源南北互通;资源效益而言,我国省际间粮食贸易的虚拟水流动格局在全国范围内共节约了152.96亿m3的水资源,占总的虚拟水流动量的15.79%,表面的水资源节约现象背后隐藏着缺水区输水给丰水区的反常现象以及广大富水地区水资源利用效率低下的严重问题;经济效益总体上是增加的,工业增加值为6.77万亿元。经济效益增加分布较为集中,经济效益减损分布较为分散,效益减损需要构建地区补偿机制;环境效益结果不佳,农作物绿水占用指数高的地区在透支当地农业生态绿水情况下大量输出虚拟水,将会对其陆地自然生态系统造成严重威胁并制约当地社会经济发展。根据结果得出政策启示,为水资源管理、区域发展及生态安全提供新思考：引入实体水与虚拟水结合的水资源管理方式;构建协调区域发展的虚拟水补偿机制;维持绿水与蓝水结构平衡的生态安全。 关键词： 省际间粮食贸易;虚拟水流动;资源效益;经济效益;环境效益     

The livelihood potential of non-wood forest products: The case of Mbooni Division in Makueni District, Kenya

Forestry is a productive sector with significant effects on meeting national socio-economic and environmental functions as well as the improvement of rural livelihoods. Non-wood forest products (NWFPs) in particular have been widely advocated by conservation and development organisations as potential alternative livelihood strategies, particularly among vulnerable forest dependant households. Like in most tropical countries, NWFPs are relevant in the sustainable development of Kenya that is particularly endowed with important forest resources. Kenya hosts about 17 million ha of forested land (about 3.51% of the total Sub-Saharan Africa forest cover by 2000), of which about 16,865,000 ha is under natural forest (EarthTrends: Forests, grasslands and drylands, 2003). Outside the gazetted forests, there are other large tracks of forests in trust lands, including national parks and reserves, hill forest reserves and privately owned lands covering about 0.5 million ha (Kenya’s forest resource assessment in the EC-FAO Partnership Programme Report, 2000; The Kenya Forests Act, 2005). Woodlands, bushlands and wooded grasslands, mainly found in the arid and semi-arid lands cover 37.6 million ha, while forest plantations (started in 1946) cover about 170,000 ha of land (The Kenya forestry master plan, 1994–2020, 1994). In most NWFPs endowed regions of the country however, this socio-economic and environmental potential is still unrealized. We illustrate the latter by a case study of NWFPs use and management in four villages in Mbooni Division of Makueni District, Kenya. The division was chosen because of its relatively high NWFPs availability, particularly from South Mbooni forest that is located at a distance less than 5 km for an estimated 80% of the interviewed households. Data used for the analysis was collected through a fieldwork survey carried out on women (35+ years) in August, 2005. One hundred and sixty (160) NWFPs are harvested (from plant and animal species) and used mainly for food, income generation (supplemental) and medicinal purposes. A number of challenges limit women’s enjoyment of the full benefits from NWFPs exploitation, the overriding problem being their inadequacy (in quantity and/or quality). In this paper we discuss these commonly utilized and managed NWFPs plant species in Mbooni and their potential contribution to improved livelihoods and sustainable development in Mbooni, Kenya and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in general.     

中美两国经济发展与铜消费量对比研究

发达国家的发展过程表明,经济增长与铜消费量密切相关。本文由IPAT方程推导了铜消费指标与GDP间的关系式,得出GDP的年增长率（g）的单位GDP铜消费量的年下降率（t）是影响铜消费量变化的两个重要参数。给出了中、美两国铜消费指标与GDP间的关系曲线;中国1960-2004年间单位GDP的铜消费量并未形成明显的上升或下降趋势;美国1941-2004年间单位GDP铜消费量的变化总体上逐年降低,1941年为17.80kg/10^4USD,2003年为2.56kg/10^4USD,单位GDP的铜消费量降低近7倍。对应不同的单位GDP铜消费量年下降率的假设,估计了未来25年内中国经济增长与铜消费指标间的关系以及单位GDP铜消费量降低的倍数。     

基于AHP LP法的南水北调中线水资源优化配置

水资源是不可替代的重要自然资源和战略性经济资源，水资源优化配置是解决水资源问题的重要手段。为促进区域水资源供需状况相对平衡，按可持续发展的要求，根据区域水资源优化配置的含义和南水北调河北省受水区的具体情况，以有限水资源综合效益最大为目标，考虑水源可供水量、用户需水量和水环境与经济系统协调发展等约束，采用层次分析法与线性规划法相结合的方法，建立了水资源优化配置模型，并对模型的目标函数、约束条件和主要参数确定进行了初步探讨。最后用该模型进行了南水北调河北省受水区2005年和2010年95%保证率下的水资源优化配置研究，并对求解结果进行了分析、评价及展望。结果表明，南水北调工程实施后，能够解决河北省受水区严重缺水的状况。     

湖南省经济增长的资源环境代价评估

应用“含资源与环境项目的社会会计矩阵”（SAMRE）方法及其数学模型计算湖南省1991～1999年资源净产值、环境净产值和真实储蓄值。结果显示,湖南省资源净产值与环境净产值每年损失幅度为4.00亿～99.01亿元,占全省每年GDP比重的0.48％～3.18％,平均占2.35％。真实国民储蓄比传统国民经济核算体系的净储蓄减少10.41亿～109.60亿元,占全省每年GDP比重的1.25％～3.52％,平均占2.84％。分析表明自然资源损失与环境污染已成为湖南省经济总量增长的沉重代价,其发展呈弱可持续性特征。分析结果还同时显示,近年来资源与环境净产值损失占全省GDP的比重总体呈下降趋势,真实储蓄比重逐渐上升。     

韩国工业化推进过程中的土地利用与经济发展关系分析研究

将土地与经济发展间的相关度及其变化进行比较分析发现。韩国工业化在加速阶段和工业化后期的整个工业化推进过程中，耕地减少与GDP、工业化服务业增加值、固定资产投资及其城市化水平变化是不同的：土地对经济发展影响程度在工业化加速阶段的相对弹性影响度系数很强，而到了工业化后期．影响度则比以前明显减弱；即使到了工业化后期．如果不能继续实施严格的农地保护制度。而过分强调平抑地价．降低土地供给成本．那么农地资源消耗速度仍将持续走高，不会自动进入农地资源消耗的平稳期。虽然不同国家有所差异。但是，我们从中可以得出很多有益的结论和启示。对我国强化土地管理．保证经济持续稳定发展有重大的借鉴意义。     

Efficiency of common-pool resource institutions: focusing on water users associations in South Africa

Despite of the promulgation of new water laws post-apartheid by the South African government, some parts of the country are still faced with inequitable, inefficient and inadequate water supply. Water institutions in South Africa and other developing countries are faced with various and multi-faceted challenges that consequently lead to their failure to provide water resources effectively. The evident responsibility of governing water resources in developing countries is commonly played by local and national institutions, using the water sector’s fundamental regulations, policies as well as statutory enactments. This paper draws lessons from the international examples to analyse the motivation for WUAs and the challenges they are faced with. The method for data generation used in this article is document analysis. A narrative approach using the literature and document analysis provided an insight into the economic and institutional history of WUAs. The analytical framework to study path dependency and power relations in connection with WUAs in South Africa was drawn from a literature review of transition studies and NIE. This study established that the current and future decisions made by the WUAs in South Africa are not entirely independent of those made in the past under irrigation boards. The study argues that establishing WUAs cannot automatically substitute for the domains of relations which existed within irrigation boards.     

Environmentally compatible energy resource production—consumption pattern (case study: Iran)

Like all rapidly developing countries, the government of Iran (GOI) has to integrate environment priorities into its energy sector. In order to integrate environmental concerns into energy sector, an Energy-Environment Review (EER) may be considered as the mainstreaming tool capable of examining the interface between energy and the environment. The results of the EER should be interpreted, in the light of the objective of the 4th Five Year Development Plan in Iran, to achieve fast and sustainable growth and accelerate the transition to a market economy. In particular, the suggested actions will promote economic efficiency use of energy resources through a proper allocation of scarce resources, including environmental resources, so as to achieve economic efficiency and environmental and social protection. This paper comprises: (A) an analysis of the current situation with regards to energy production and consumption; (B) an evaluation of the growth prospects with regard to energy production and consumption; (C) the identification of environmental issues induced by the generation and use of energy and estimation of the associated costs of damages; (D) the evaluation of the extent of contribution to the climate-change phenomenon through emission of greenhouse gases; (E) the evaluation of the proposed mitigation measures for the previously identified environmental problems; and (F) conclusions and recommendations. The EER-Iran assessed the total health damage from air pollution in 2001 at about 56  ×  10¹² Rials (US $ seven billion); equivalent to 8.4% of nominal GDP. In the absence of the price reform and control policies, the EER-Iran estimated that the damage in Iran in the money of 2001, will grow to 155  ×  10¹² Rials (US $ nine billion) by 2019. This is equivalent to 10.9% of nominal GDP, i.e., a large percentage of a larger GDP. Of this total, 107  ×  10¹² Rials (US $ 8.4 billion) come from transport sector. The damage cost to the global environment from the flaring of natural gas, assessed on the basis of a carbon price of US $ 10/ton CO₂, is found to be approximately US $ 600 million per year. Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

铜陵市资源利用与经济增长关系分析

资源利用与经济增长之间的关系是资源与环境经济学研究的重要领域。以安徽省铜陵市为例,尝试运用物质流分析方法以及最新发展的自回归分布滞后模型（ARDL）对铜陵市1990~2008年资源利用和实际GDP二者关系进行检验和分析。采用了物质流分析指标中直接物质投入来表征区域资源利用量。ARDL边界检验结果表明了资源利用和经济增长间存在稳定的长期均衡关系。进一步通过ARDL-ECM模型分析了区域经济增长对资源利用长期弹性系数和短期弹性系数,并揭示出资源利用对经济增长的短期和长期因果关系。研究结果表明当前资源投入在一定程度上拉动了铜陵经济增长。同时还对铜陵经济增长和资源保护战略提出了政策建议     

重庆市生态系统服务价值与区域经济增长的时空动态关系研究

投资自然资本（NC）、提升生态系统服务价值(ESV)是协同推进经济增长和环境保护的重要举措，其关键之一在于测算生态系统服务价值。基于2009～2016年重庆市各类土地利用类型面积的调查数据，测算了全市ESV，并结合研究期间各区县经济水平，系统分析了ESV与经济增长时空动态关系的演变。研究结果表明：（1）全市ESV在2009、2012和2016年分别是 4 011.29、4 000.63 和4 037.24 亿元，呈先降后升的U型变动。（2）变动的主要原因在于林地面积的变化，建设用地对林地等的占用导致了前期的下降，而退耕还林、天然林资源保护、三峡后续植被恢复等生态工程的实施促进了后期的上升。（3）从空间自相关关系来看，全市人均GDP与地均ESV负相关关系减弱，表现为“低高组合为主，双低双高为辅”，低-高聚类分布在渝东北和渝东南地区，高-高聚类分布在渝西地区。最后，因地制宜地提出实现经济和生态双增长的对策与建议。     

遗传资源对区域经济社会发展的贡献研究——以泰州市为例

遗传资源作为国民经济发展的基础性资源,其社会经济贡献长期受到不同程度的低估,对遗传资源经济贡献的忽视造成了资源不断破坏和生态环境的退化。通过对遗传资源内涵及其价值的重新梳理,测算了2011年泰州市遗传资源的直接经济利用价值、研究与开发价值、保护价值,以及由遗传资源利用而带来的社会效益等各种经济贡献价值。研究表明,2011年泰州市遗传资源总经济价值为22688亿元,相当于泰州地区生产总值的935%;2011年泰州市遗传资源的直接经济利用价值、研究与开发价值、遗传资源保护价值,及其带来的社会效益价值分别为14350、1426、6013、899亿元,而遗传资源第一、二、三产业中四类价值的经济价值总和分别为14139、5606、2943亿元。研究表明：生物遗传资源的四类价值在遗传资源三次产业中均具有重要的经济贡献,尤其在遗传资源第一和第三产业中的经济贡献分别占据了8383%和3499%;而对于整个泰州市三次产业来说,生物遗传资源在二、三产业中的经济贡献较小,分别为4%和315%,主要原因在于二、三产业中涉及遗传资源的产业不多,以致生物遗传资源在遗传资源产业层面和区域产业层面上的贡献存在较大的差异     

规划管制下土地发展权受限的多情景测度:数量与价值

在统筹推进国土空间规划及用途管制的背景下,揭示土地发展权受限的数量及其价值,对于完善中国空间治理体系、解决不平衡不充分发展尤其是区域差异问题具有重要的理论和现实意义。文章以湖北省为"生态资源优势区"代表性省份,首先运用柯布-道格拉斯(C-D)生产函数模型测算各生产要素在农业与非农业部门中对经济增长的弹性以及土地资源在两部门的边际收益,揭示土地发展权受限的客观现实和成因;然后基于缩小湖北省与"经济发展优势区"经济发展差距的不同情景,测度2009—2018年湖北因处于生态资源优势区而使土地发展权受限的数量与价值。结果显示:(1)土地要素投入对湖北省经济增长具有重要影响。2009—2018年,湖北省非农部门经济增长仍依赖土地要素投入,且土地要素对经济增长的贡献难以被其他生产要素替代。(2)高额的机会成本是土地资源由农业部门向非农部门转移的重要潜在驱动力。2009—2018年,湖北省非农部门的土地边际收益是农业部门的17.03~44.14倍,且呈逐年递增趋势,规划管制的存在导致了土地发展权受限。(3)规划管制背景下,对受限的土地发展权进行补偿具有必要性和可行性。在经济发展水平差距缩小10%~100%的不同情景下,2009—2018年湖北省土地发展权受限数量处于0.53×104~5.35×104hm2之间,对应的价值量占同时期"经济发展优势区"总GDP的比重较低,为0.02%~0.19%。基于此,应开展土地发展权受限补偿的制度建设,从土地发展权产权确认和利益分配机制改革两方面量化和落实土地发展权,并以对土地发展权的底线补偿情景为起点逐步提高土地发展权补偿水平,直至实现完全补偿。     

Seeing the wood for the trees: the role of woody resources for the construction of gender specific household cultural artefacts in non-traditional communities in the Eastern Cape, South Africa

There is a growing wealth of data capturing the direct-use values of the environment and recognition of forests and wild resources as representing “the poor manȁ9s overcoat”. This focus has however resulted in an emphasis on the utilitarian values of wild resources for rural livelihoods and has for the most part overlooked their cultural values. In tangent to these developments within the field of anthropology there has been increased attention directed towards the relationship between biodiversity and human diversity over the past decade. This has resulted in the recognition of what the Declaration of Belem calls an ȁ8inextricable linkȁ9 between biological and cultural diversity. The term bio-cultural diversity has been introduced as a concept denoting this link. Consequently there is a need for more elaborate assessments of the various ways in which different groups of people find value in biodiversity. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate the cultural significance of wild harvested plant resources for the maintenance of two gender specific cultural artefacts for amaXhosa people in South Africa, to assess the persistence of these practices in rapidly modernizing communities. We demonstrate the endurance of these ancient cultural artefacts in present-day peri-urban communities and suggest that they point to the need for improved understanding of the significance of bio-cultural diversity. The findings of the study should not be interpreted as illustrating stagnation in the traditional past, but rather as pointing at the need for improved understanding of the significance of bio-cultural diversity in a dynamic sense.     

Soil degradation and agricultural sustainability: an overview from Iran

During the past six decades, agriculture as a main sector in Iran’s economy has been affected by economic development, land-use policies, and population growth and its pressures. From the 1940s until 2010, the percentage of the total urban population of Iran increased from about 21?% to around 72?%. Urbanization, industrialization, and intensive cultivation have dramatically affected soil and water resources. The exploitation of groundwater has been increased around fourfold from the 1970s to the mid-2000s. Total water resources per capita reduced around 23?% from 1956 to 2008. The average annual decrease in the groundwater table in Iran during the last two decades is 0.51?m. In 2008, the groundwater table fell around ?1.14?m in average in Iran. The average use of chemical fertilizers increased from around 2.1?million tons in 1990s to about 3.7?million tons in 2009. During that period, fertilizer use efficiency decreased from around 28?% to around 21?%. Approximately 77?% of the agricultural land under irrigation suffers from different levels of salinity. According to the quantification of four indices, such as soil erosion, fall in groundwater levels, salinity, and use of chemical fertilizer, that are directly related to agricultural land use, the results show that agricultural management in Iran needs special attention to reach sustainable conditions. The total cost of soil and water degradation and use of fertilizers in agriculture are estimated around than US $12.8?billion (about 157,000?billion IRRials)—approximately 4?% of the total gross domestic product (GDP) and approximately 35?% of the GDP of the agricultural sector in Iran.     

环境资源配置低效率及自然资本"富聚"现象剖析

根据技术效率、经济效率、自然效率、社会效率之间的关系，探讨了四个效率背离所导致的资源配置效率丧失以及由此引发的社会福利损失问题。在分析价格信号在资源配置过程中的作用的基础上，探讨了市场失效和价格背离现象。进一步指出了中国经济转型时期存在着自然资本富聚现象，并进一步分析其根源。包括：政府有效干预不足、现行经济增长方式和经济效率实现以对自然资本的低成本占用、机会导向型的资源配置方式、资本的价值取向、对经济财富以及单一行为人的效率追逐、产权缺位等。强调需要强化环境管理的公共管理属性，并对环境资源的权益主体的权利、责任和利益进行有效的界定和实施，通过制度和政策变革，干预和规范市场运作，促进资源的高效和公平配置。     

基于VAR模型的水资源利用与经济增长动态关系研究

基于VAR模型,通过变量平稳性检验和协整分析,广义脉冲响应和预测方差分解分析,利用中国1980-2007年水资源利用和经济增长相关数据,对中国经济增长与水资源利用的长期均衡关系及其动态性进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:①经济增长与总用水量、工业用水量和生活用水量之间存在长期均衡关系,而农业用水与经济增长之间不存在长期均衡关系,这与研究期间中国处于工业化中期阶段的事实相吻合;②经济增长对水资源利用的冲击响应的滞后期短且是非渐进的,而水资源对经济增长产生显著影响的滞后期较长且是非渐进的,我国经济发展中工业用水、生活用水量增加趋势明显,农业用水量随着经济发展出现零增长和负增长;③经济增长对水资源利用的预测方差起着重要作用,而水资源利用对经济增长的预测方差的贡献度较小。建议加强工业用水和生活用水的节水措施,减少工业和生活用水量,实现水资源可持续利用。