基于FAHP的功效系数法的岩质边坡稳定性分级

针对岩质边坡稳定性评价的模糊性与多指标性特点,采用模糊层次分析法确定Ⅰ、Ⅱ级指标权重,提高了0.1~0.9标度法所确定权重的客观性并克服了单一性,且避免了同一对指标比较时的不一致性,量化了不连续性基础指标。引入功效系数法对不同类型的基础指标进行功效系数值归一化求解,结合功效系数值与Ⅰ、Ⅱ级指标权重向量计算得出总功效系数值,据总功效系数值大小划分稳定性级别。在模糊层次分析法基础上,运用功效系数法对永吉岩质边坡进行稳定性评价、分级的结果与实际调查情况相符。证明该方法对岩质边坡稳定性分级具有很好的适用性与可靠性。     

基于最优传递矩阵的层次分析法在桥梁震害评估中的应用

影响桥梁抗震性能的因素众多,鉴于传统的定量方法无法精确权衡各因素的影响程度,因此,考虑将不确定型层次分析法引入桥梁的震害评估中,对区间标度的合理选择作了简要讨论,运用1～9标度采集数据,兼顾10/10～18/2标度的精确性,对初始判断矩阵进行折算。利用最优传递矩阵的概念,对传统的AHP进行改进,直接求出各指标的权重值。并将此方法应用到实例当中,建立基于地震波、墩台基础、支座、结构因素、环境因素等多因素影响下的桥梁震害评估模型,得到桥梁最终的综合评估值。     

建立自然灾害统一标度的建议

为了开展各类自然灾害的综合研究和系统防治工作,在不同类型的自然灾害之间,应当有一个客观的、共同的、可以进行相互比较的、定量的标准。虽然不同类型的自然灾害所涉及的能量量级不同,但灾害本身所造成的相对能量扰动却可以相互比较。目前许多涉及某一特定灾害的学科,都已经确立了自己的灾害级标度。以此为基础,我们建议,以某次灾害的灾害级和目前所知的这种类型的灾害中最大的灾害事件的灾害级的比值做为灾害强度的统一标度。这是一个无量纲数,可以称为灾害强度指数。例如,对地震而言,已知最大的震级是9,那么地震灾害的灾害强度指数定义为震级/9。     

建筑风载数值模拟的影响因素

通过对建筑物周围风场的计算流体动力学(CFD)模拟计算与原型试验结果的比较,分析了在应用CFD计算时应该考虑的计算区域、进口边界条件、湍流模型和网格划分等各种相关因素对CFD数值模拟结果准确度的影响.结果表明,在各种影响因素中,计算区域影响相对较小,而进口边界条件、网格划分和湍流模型的影响相对较大;而且进口边界条件中速度分布对计算结果的影响大于湍流强度分布对计算结果的影响,是进口边界条件中的关键部分.同时,根据上述比较,建议在网格划分中,对几何外形简单的单个建筑的数值模拟计算,优先采用结构化网格划分方法;对于湍流模型的选择,一般的工程应用中,建议在初步设计阶段选择RNGκ-ε湍流模型,而在最终设计阶段采用雷诺应力模型.     

受火侵袭波纹腹板钢梁的侧向弯扭屈曲及其参数分析

基于ANSYS的有限元数值计算,考查了简支波纹腹板钢梁在火灾作用下的侧向弯扭屈曲。通过与平腹板钢梁的临界温度作比较,研究了波纹腹板钢梁分别在纯弯矩和集中载荷作用下的抗火性能,并分析了栽荷比、初始缺陷等因素对波纹腹板钢梁抗火性能的影响。分析表明,波纹腹板钢梁与平腹板钢梁在火灾作用下有相同的侧向弯扭屈曲性能。     

某渡槽拟动力试验的数值模拟分析

对某渡槽结构的拟动力试验模型进行了有限元分析,对比了数值计算和实验结果。首先简要介绍了某渡槽结构的拟动力试验,然后给出了数值模拟的计算模型,对不同类型的地震波在不同峰值条件下的墩身、桩体位移进行了比较,结果表明,有限元计算结果与拟动力试验结果的峰值和变化趋势比较接近,在一定程度上证明了该实验的合理性。     

福建台网测定台湾地震震级偏差研究

通过对2008年1月至2013年9月期间福建台网记录的台湾地区1257个地震的近震震级偏差进行统计分析,研究了台湾地区近震震级偏差的影响因素。在比较震级残差法和最大振幅衰减曲线法后,选用最大振幅衰减曲线法拟合得到福建台网适用于台湾地区的量规函数,并用震级残差法得到了相应的台站校正值和介质传播方向校正值。这不仅减小了近震震级的离散度,而且使闽台两地震级标度趋于一致。然后将研究成果应用于首台近震震级的校正,首台震级经过校正后可以快速测得偏差较小的近震震级,为地震预警震级的确定打下了基础。     

拉裂式崩塌的运动特征分析——以陕西延长县为例

利用离散元法对延长县拉裂式岩质崩塌进行了数值模拟,研究了拉裂式崩塌的运动过程,分析了其运动规律。根据崩塌的受力形式和运动特点,拉裂式崩塌的运动过程分为岩体原有节理的开裂变形、崩塌体与基岩碰撞的落体运动、崩塌体相互碰撞与堆积、坡体的二次变形破坏四个阶段。由于影响崩塌运动的因素很多,其运动形式也非常复杂,数值模拟得出崩塌的运动速度小于理论计算结果,运动距离与实际调查结果基本一致。因此数值模拟结果可用于预测该类型崩塌的影响范围,同时对工程实践具有指导意义。     

综放采空区特性与氧浓度分布关系研究

在现场束管监测实验的基础上,分析总结了综放采空区特性.根据计算流体力学原理,采用FLUENT数值模拟计算软件,针对综放采空区的不同特性,分别对采空区氧化带和窒息带的关键划分指标"氧浓度"进行数值模拟.将模拟结果与实测结果进行比较,讨论了在考虑综放采空区不同特性情况下的数值模拟结果对采空区自燃"三带",即"散热带"、"氧...     

地震分布多重分形特征的中期预报意义探讨

讨论了地球岩石圈的自组织临界状态和地震发生的非局域性与多重标度分形统计特征。研究了地震多重分形性质的计算方法及其应用于地震预报的前景。采用推广ＧＰ算法从典型震区的地震数据计算地震多重分形分布的广义维数谱和奇异性谱以确立较敏感的强震前兆,对于不同算法进行了精度、数据量要求及适用范围的比较。研究结果表明：地震分布的多重分形维数谱和奇异性谱对于一些典型震区的强震发生具有中期预报价值。     

What happened to the Second World? Earthquakes and postsocialism in Kazakhstan

There is an assumption that with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Second World ceased to exist. Yet the demise of the Communist bloc as a geopolitical reality did not mean that it stopped exerting a defining influence over how people think and behave. This article examines how the postsocialist state in Kazakhstan deals with potential crises such as earthquakes and the extent to which the Soviet legacy still shapes intellectual debates, state structures, and civil society organisations in in that country. Drawing on fieldwork and interviews, this paper re-examines the Second World in its historical context and re-establishes it as a conceptual framework for considering disaster risk reduction in the former Soviet bloc. It argues that it is essential to pay attention to this legacy in Kazakhstan both in policy and practice if earthquake risk reduction is to be made more effective.     

旅游目的地灾害事件的影响机理研究

认清旅游灾害事件的影响机理是进行旅游灾害管理的基础。在灾害背景下,旅游目的地受灾害事件影响表现为旅游客流的减少,进而导致旅游经济链条的断裂。游客减少的根本原因是由于目的地灾害事件信息影响了潜在旅游者对目的地的形象感知,从而决定了潜在旅游者到目的地旅行的行为意向强度,进而影响到目的地的旅游流强度。     

Environmental Causes and Impact of Refugee Movements: A Critique of the Current Debate

The relationships between insecurity, environmental change and population displacement are discussed in this paper. It argues that environmental change and concomitant population displacement are the consequences of war and insecurity rather than triggers for it — as postulated in so much of the recent literature. Additionally, the paper critically reviews the state of knowledge concerning the impact of refugees on the environment of host countries. The aim here is not to document the negative or positive impacts as such, but rather to de-mythologise some aspects of the state of knowledge which through repetition have become accepted as 'scientific truth'.     

"We all knew that a cyclone was coming": disaster preparedness and the cyclone of 1999 in Orissa, India

Imagine that a cyclone is coming, but that those living in the affected areas do nothing or too little to protect themselves. This is precisely what happened in the coastal state of Orissa, India. Individuals and communities living in regions where natural hazards are a part of daily life develop strategies to cope with and adapt to the impacts of extreme events. In October 1999, a cyclone killed 10,000 people according to government statistics, however, the unofficial death toll is much higher. This article examines why such a large loss of life occurred and looks at measures taken since then to initiate comprehensive disaster-preparedness programmes and to construct more cyclone shelters. The role of both governmental organisations and NGOs in this is critically analysed. The good news is that, based on an assessment of disaster preparedness during a small cyclone in November 2002, it can be seen that at community-level awareness was high and that many of the lessons learnt in 1999 were put into practice. Less positive, however, is the finding that at the state level collaboration continues to be problematic.     

Building community resilience: business preparedness lessons in the case of Adapazarı, Turkey

The lack of attention paid to businesses in disaster management systems from the standpoint of state policies hampers efforts to build community resilience. This paper examines, therefore, the extent of business preparedness for disasters. Empirical research was conducted in Adapazarı, Turkey, 13 years after the İzmit earthquake, which struck the northwest of the country on 17 August 1999, claiming the lives of some 17,000 people. For the study, 232 firms were selected to inquire about their preparedness before and after the event. It is hypothesised that business preparedness is influenced by the following set of variables: business size; business sector; business age; financial condition prior to the disaster; occupancy tenure; market range; education level; and previous disaster experience. In line with the findings of the research, a policy framework is constructed to rationalise the allocation of resources for building resilience at the aggregate level by facilitating business preparedness.     

强度折减有限元法中边坡失稳的塑性区判据及其应用

将抗剪强度折减法基本概念、弹塑性有限元分析原理与计算结果图形实时显示技术相结合,提出了以广义塑性应变及塑性开展区作为边坡失稳的评判依据,并与以非线性迭代收敛条件作为失稳评判指标的强度折减有限元方法进行了对比。对于天然垂直边坡的算例数值分析表明,采用广义塑性应变与塑性开展区作为失稳判据可以比较准确地预测边坡潜在破坏面的形状与位置及相应的稳定安全系数,验证了这种失稳判据的合理性。对开挖边坡和开挖支护边坡的实例计算结果表明本文方法对于复杂的边坡稳定性分析是实用的。     

Deconstruction of destruction stories: narrative,inequality, and disasters

A commonly‐held belief is that natural disasters do not discriminate. This paper, though, poses the following theoretical question: what does the elision of race, class, and gender in the news media say about disasters in the neoliberal era? It draws on the author's analysis of two prominent newspapers—The New York Times and USA Today—and their coverage of the recovery process after devastating tornadoes in two towns in the United States (Tuscaloosa, Alabama, and Joplin, Missouri) in 2011. The study asserts that the narrative of the news media is one with which people are familiar and that it fits into larger ‘formula stories’. It utilises theoretical treatments of narrative to demonstrate how differences are erased and how they lead to complicity in hegemonic representations. Critical theory is used to elucidate why this occurs, and the paper sources Goldberg (2002) in suggesting that the news media employs ‘fantasies of homogenisation’ when representing post‐disaster communities.     

Optimisation patterns for the process of a planned evacuation in the event of a flood

ABSTRACT

The main purpose of the article is to develop an optimisation pattern for the process of a preventive evacuation of people from flood-risk areas (at the first sign of a flood), aimed at mitigating the negative effects of the flood performed through the application of modern computer tools. It has been assumed that the use of both GIS tools and apps for vehicle traffic modelling (the research includes the use of a method developed by the authors) in emergency procedures implemented in response to a flood may increase the efficiency of the anti-flood campaign (here: the evacuation of residents from flooded areas), and thus, it may also minimise the negative effects of the flooding itself. The article distinguishes 14 stages of research, which were chiefly completed by means of the following methods: distance-based accessibility, cumulative accessibility, the Enhanced Two-Step Floating Catchment Area Method (E2SFCA) and the Two-Step Floating Catchment Area Method (2SFCA), the vehicle routing method, algorithms by Dinitz, Edmonds-Karp, and Ford-Fulkerson, and a comparative method applied to draw a comparison between the actual state of affairs and the optimum condition determined by the aforementioned methods.     

紧急救援中公共建筑的伦理学

灾害评估将房屋分成框架结构和混合结构、砖木结构和土坯结构来评定损失.防震减灾中,除了上述分类外,更重要的是要考虑到"房屋-人"是一种相互不可分割的系统工程.房屋不仅仅是由砖石和水泥组成的,它同时是有"情感"的:人对房屋好一点,房屋就会对主人有报答.不少农村医院、学校等公共建筑,由于设计标准低、施工中存在偷工减料的现象,已经存在着隐患,只是在建造初期没有暴露出来.有了地震这一外力,加剧了矛盾,由"小患"变成了"大害".应当"以人为本",建议新建的建筑物应在当地基本烈度的基础上提高1度进行设计;对危旧房屋的改造,也应按在当地基本烈度的基础上加1度进行加固.可以分两步走:第一步,先加强地震多发地区的公共建筑,大约在全国有百余个县;第二步,在全国推广.     

New tools for emergency managers: an assessment of obstacles to use and implementation

This paper focuses on the role of the formal response community's use of social media and crowdsourcing for emergency managers (EMs) in disaster planning, response and recovery in the United States. In‐depth qualitative interviews with EMs on the Eastern seaboard at the local, state and federal level demonstrate that emergency management tools are in a state of transition—from formal, internally regulated tools for crisis response to an incorporation of new social media and crowdsourcing tools. The first set of findings provides insight into why many EMs are not using social media, and describes their concerns that result in fear, uncertainty and doubt. Second, this research demonstrates how internal functioning and staffing issues within these agencies present challenges. This research seeks to examine the dynamics of this transition and offer lessons for how to improve its outcomes—critical to millions of people across the United States.