Scenarios of global anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants and methane until 2030

We have used a global version of the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation (RAINS) model to estimate anthropogenic emissions of the air pollution precursors sulphur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), carbon monoxide (CO), primary carbonaceous particles of black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and methane (CH₄). We developed two scenarios to constrain the possible range of future emissions. As a baseline, we investigated the future emission levels that would result from the implementation of the already adopted emission control legislation in each country, based on the current national expectations of economic development. Alternatively, we explored the lowest emission levels that could be achieved with the most advanced emission control technologies that are on the market today. This paper describes data sources and our assumptions on activity data, emission factors and the penetration of pollution control measures. We estimate that, with current expectations on future economic development and with the present air quality legislation, global anthropogenic emissions of SO₂ and NO_x would slightly decrease between 2000 and 2030. For carbonaceous particles and CO, reductions between 20% and 35% are computed, while for CH₄ an increase of about 50% is calculated. Full application of currently available emission control technologies, however, could achieve substantially lower emissions levels, with decreases up to 30% for CH₄, 40% for CO and BC, and nearly 80% for SO₂.     

Sub-region (district) and sector level SO2 and NOx emissions for India: assessment of inventories and mitigation flexibility

Sub-regional and sector level distribution of SO₂ and NO_x emissions inventories for India have been estimated for all the 466 Indian districts using base data for years 1990 and 1995. Although, national level emissions provide general guidelines for assessing mitigation alternatives, but significant regional and sectoral variability exist in Indian emissions. Districts reasonably capture this variability to a fine grid as 80% of these districts are smaller than 1°×1° resolution with 60% being smaller than even 1/2°×1/2°. Moreover, districts in India have well-established administrative and institutional mechanisms that would be useful for implementing and monitoring measures. District level emission estimates thus offer a finer regional scale inventory covering the combined interests of the scientific community and policy makers. The inventory assessment methodology adopted is similar to that prescribed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The sectoral decomposition at district level includes emissions from fossil fuel combustion, non-energy emissions from industrial activities and agriculture. Total SO₂ and NO_x emissions from India were 3542 and 2636 Gg, respectively (1990) and 4638 and 3462 Gg (1995) growing at annual rate of around 5.5%. The sectoral composition of SO₂ emissions indicates a predominance of electric power generation sector (46%). Power and transport sector emissions equally dominate NO_x emissions contributing nearly 30% each. However, majority of power plants are situated in predominantly rural districts while the latter are concentrated in large urban centers. Mitigation efforts for transport sector NO_x emissions would therefore be higher. The district level analysis indicates diverse spatial distribution with the top 5% emitting districts contributing 46.5 and 33.3% of total national SO₂ and NO_x emissions, respectively. This skewed emission pattern, with a few districts, sectors and point sources emitting significant SO₂ and NO_x, offers mitigation flexibility to policy makers for cost-effective mitigation.     

ESP Performance with Atmospheric Fluidized-Bed Combustion

Electric utilities considering atmospheric fluidized-bed combustion (AFBC) as an economic way to reduce SO₂ and NO_x emissions at coal-fired power plants must evaluate the impact AFBC will have on existing or planned plant systems and components. Because fly ash in AFBC units can have characteristics significantly different from that generated in pulverized-coal-fired boilers, a particular concern in this regard is the performance of the plant's particulate control equipment.     

Nitrogen Oxides Emission Control Options for Coal-Fired Electric Utility Boilers

Abstract

Recent regulations have required reductions in emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO_x) from electric utility boilers. To comply with these regulatory requirements, it is increasingly important to implement state-of-the-art NO_x control technologies on coal-fired utility boilers. This paper reviews NO_x control options for these boilers. It discusses the established commercial primary and secondary control technologies and examines what is being done to use them more effectively. Furthermore, the paper discusses recent developments in NO_x controls. The popular primary control technologies in use in the United States are low-NO_x burners and overfire air. Data reflect that average NO_x reductions for specific primary controls have ranged from 35% to 63% from 1995 emissions levels. The secondary NO_x control technologies applied on U.S. coal-fired utility boilers include reburning, selective noncatalytic reduction (SNCR), and selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Thirty-six U.S. coal-fired utility boilers have installed SNCR, and reported NO_x reductions achieved at these applications ranged from 15% to 66%. Recently, SCR has been installed at >150 U.S. coal-fired utility boilers. Data on the performance of 20 SCR systems operating in the United States with low-NO_x emissions reflect that in 2003, these units achieved NO_x emission rates between 0.04 and 0.07 lb/10⁶ Btu.     

Anthropogenic emissions of SO2 and NOx in Asia: Emission inventories

The anthropogenic emissions of SO₂ and NO_x for 25 Asian countries east of Afghanistan and Pakistan have been calculated for 1975, 1980, 1985, 1986 and 1987 based on fuel consumption, sulfur content in fuels and emission factors for used fuels in each emission category. The provincial- and regional-based calculations have also been made for China and India. The total SO₂ emissions in these parts of Asia have been calculated to be 18.3 and 29.1 Tg in 1975 and 1987, respectively. The calculated total NO_x emissions were 9.4 and 15.5 Tg in 1975 and 1987, respectively. The SO₂ and NO_x emissions in East Asia (China, Japan, South Korea, North Korea and Taiwan) were 23.4 and 10.7 Tg in 1975 and 1987, respectively.Keyword: Emission inventories, sulfur dioxide emissions, nitrogen oxide emissions, Asian emissions, anthropogenic emissions.     

Sulfur Dioxide and Nitrogen Oxides Emissions from U.S. Pulp and Paper Mills, 1980–2005

Abstract

Comprehensive surveys conducted at 5-yr intervals were used to estimate sulfur dioxide (SO₂) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions from U.S. pulp and paper mills for 1980, 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2005. Over the 25-yr period, paper production increased by 50%, whereas total SO₂ emissions declined by 60% to 340,000 short tons (t) and total NO_x emissions decreased approximately 15% to 230,000 t. The downward emission trends resulted from a combination of factors, including reductions in oil and coal use, steadily declining fuel sulfur content, lower pulp and paper production in recent years, increased use of flue gas desulfurization systems on boilers, growing use of combustion modifications and add-on control systems to reduce boiler and gas turbine NO_x emissions, and improvements in kraft recovery furnace operations.     

A Comprehensive Inventory of the Ship Traffic Exhaust Emissions in the Baltic Sea from 2006 to 2009

This study addresses the exhaust emissions of CO₂, NO_x, SO_x, CO, and PM_2.5 originated from Baltic Sea shipping in 2006–2009. Numerical results have been computed using the Ship Traffic Emissions Assessment Model. This model is based on the messages of the automatic identification system (AIS), which enable the positioning of ships with a high spatial resolution. The NO_x emissions in 2009 were approximately 7 % higher than in 2006, despite the economic recession. However, the SO_x emissions in 2009 were approximately 14 % lower, when compared to those in 2006, mainly caused by the fuel requirements of the SO_x emission control area (SECA) which became effective in May 2006, but affected also by changes in ship activity. Results are presented on the differential geographic distribution of shipping emissions before (Jan–April 2006) and after (Jan–April 2009) the SECA regulations. The predicted NO_x emissions in 2009 substantially exceeded the emissions in 2006 along major ship routes and at numerous harbors, mostly due to the continuous increase in the number of small vessels that use AIS transmitters. Although the SO_x emissions have been reduced in 2009 in most major ship routes, these have increased in the vicinity of some harbors and on some densely trafficked routes. A seasonal variation of emissions is also presented, as well as the distribution of emissions in terms of vessel flag state, type, and weight.     

Predicting the Performance of Particulate Control Equipment

A new probabilistic modeling environment is described which allows the explicit and quantitative representation of the uncertainties inherent in new environmental control processes for SO₂ and NO_x removal. Stochastic analyses provide additional insights into the uncertainties in process performance and cost not possible with conventional deterministic or sensitivity analysis. Applications of the probabilistic modeling framework are illustrated via an analysis of the performance and cost of the fluidized bed copper oxide process, an advanced technology for the control of SO₂ and NO_x emissions from coal-fired power plants. An engineering model of a conceptual commercial-scale system provides the basis for the analysis. The model also captures interactions between the power plant, the SO₂/NO_x removal process, and other components of the emission control system. Results of the analysis address payoffs from process design improvements; the dependence of system cost on process design conditions and the availability of byproduct markets; and the likelihood that the advanced process will yield cost savings relative to conventional technology. The implications of case study results for research planning and comparisons with alternative systems also are briefly discussed.     

Modelling NOx from lightning and its impact on global chemical fields

We have used a three-dimensional off-line chemical transport model (CTM) to assess the impact of lightning emissions in the free troposphere both on NO_x itself and on other chemical species such as O₃ and OH. We have investigated these effects using two lightning emission scenarios. In the first, lightning emissions are coupled in space and time to the convective cloud top height calculated every 6 h by the CTM's moist convection scheme. In the second, lightning emissions are calculated as a constant, monthly mean field. The model's performance against observed profiles of NO_x and O₃ in the Atlantic and Pacific ocean improves significantly when lightning emissions are included. With the inclusion of these emissions, the CTM produces a significant increase in the NO_x concentrations in the upper troposphere, where the NO_x lifetime is long, and a smaller increase in the lower free troposphere, where the surface NO_x sources dominate. These changes cause a significant increase in the O₃ production in the upper troposphere and hence higher calculated O₃ there. The model indicates that lightning emissions cause local increases of over 50 parts per 10¹² by volume (pptv) in NO_x, 200 pptv in HNO₃ and 20 parts per 10⁹ by volume (ppbv) (>40%) in O₃. In addition, a smaller increase of O₃ in the lower troposphere occurs due to an increase in the downward transport of O₃. The O₃ change is accompanied by an increase in OH which is more pronounced in the upper troposphere with a corresponding reduction in CO. The method of emission employed in the model does not appear to have a significant effect globally. In the upper troposphere (above about 300 hPa) NO_x concentrations are generally lower with monthly mean emissions, because of the de-coupling of emissions from the model's convection scheme, which vents NO_x aloft more efficiently in the coupled scheme. Below the local convective outflow altitude, NO_x concentrations are larger when using the monthly mean emissions than when coupled to the convection scheme, because the more dilute emissions, and nighttime emissions, lead to a slower NO_x destruction rate. Only minor changes are predicted in the monthly average fields of O₃ if we emit lightning as a monthly constant field. However, the method of emission becomes important when we make a direct comparison of model results with time varying data. These differences should be taken into account when a direct comparison of O₃ with measurements collected at particular times and locations is attempted.     

Non-linear response of wet deposition to emissions reduction: A model study

An Eulerian atmospheric model with complex chemistry (Acidic Deposition and Oxidant Model) and a Lagrangian model with linear chemistry (Ontario Ministry of the Environment Trajectory Model) were used to simulate the wet SO₄²⁻ deposition pattern over eastern North America for 16 days during April 1981.The two model results agree reasonably well with each other when the 16 day average values are compared. They also show reasonable agreement with observed data. Having established the ability of the models to predict deposition patterns for 1981 emissions, reduction scenarios with 50% SO_x and 50% SO_x and NO_x of the 1981 emissions were studied through the Eulerian model. Near the heavy emissions area, the reduction in SO₄²⁻ wet deposition is only about 30–40%. In this respect the linear Lagrangian model departs significantly from the Eulerian model. This non-linearity in response is attributed to the role of oxidants in controlling the conversion of SO₂ to SO₄²⁻.     

Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background,emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions

Under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2006–2010) for national environmental protection by the Chinese government, the overarching goal for sulfur dioxide (SO₂) controls is to achieve a total national emissions level of SO₂ in 2010 10% lower than the level in 2005. A similar nitrogen oxides (NO_x) emissions control plan is currently under development and could be enforced during the 12th FYP (2011–2015). In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA)’s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) modeling system was applied to assess the air quality improvement that would result from the targeted SO₂ and NO_x emission controls in China. Four emission scenarios — the base year 2005, the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the 2010 SO₂ control scenario, and the 2010 NO_x control scenario—were constructed and simulated to assess the air quality change from the national control plan. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to generate the meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations. In this Part I paper, the model performance for the simulated meteorology was evaluated against observations for the base case in terms of temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation. It is shown that MM5 model gives an overall good performance for these meteorological variables. The generated meteorological fields are acceptable for using in the CMAQ modeling.     

Retrospective assessment of air quality management practices in Taiwan

In 1995, Taiwan's Environmental Protection Administration (EPA/TW) instituted a policy of levying emission taxes on polluters in order to combat the rampant national issue of pollution. Since that time, pollution control strategies, tightening exhaust emission standards for industry, improvements in fuel quality, and new stricter vehicle emission standards, etc., have been implemented. This study evaluates the effectiveness of these measures and examines the improvement of Taiwan's air quality. In this paper, we conduct a detailed analysis of change in the concentrations of pollutants (SO₂, NO_x and particulate matter [PM]) between two three-year periods (from 1996 to1998 and from 2000 to 2002). The pollution levels were generally lower in the latter period. Concentrations at 14 EPA/TW stations in central Taiwan were simulated and source apportionment analyses in three of Central Taiwan's largest cities were conducted using a trajectory transfer-coefficient air quality model. Correlation coefficients (r) between simulations and observations for the monthly means of the concentrations of SO₂, NO_x, PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ during the study periods at the 14 stations are 0.56, 0.63, 0.70 and 0.31, respectively. The sulfur control policy greatly reduced SO₂ concentration island-wide, a stringent emission standard put into place for gasoline vehicles reduced NO_x concentration along highways, and an emissions tax placed on construction sites, as well as a regular program for road-dust sweeping, reduced primary particulate matter. Among all of the pollution abatement policies implemented, the most effective method for reducing PM_2.5 concentrations in the three largest cities involved the reduction of fine ammonium sulfate aerosols from point sources (56–63% of net PM_2.5 reduction). The next largest reduction was attributed to a diminishment in primary PM_2.5 emanating from point sources (27–56% of net PM_2.5 reduction). Secondary particulate matter, especially sulfate, was reduced from distances up to 150 km leeward of major pollution point sources such as Taichung Power Plant.     

An Intelligent Emissions Controller for Fuel Lean Gas Reburn in Coal-Fired Power Plants

ABSTRACT

The application of artificial intelligence techniques for performance optimization of the fuel lean gas reburn (FLGR) system is investigated. A multilayer, feedforward artificial neural network is applied to model static nonlinear relationships between the distribution of injected natural gas into the upper region of the furnace of a coal-fired boiler and the corresponding oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) emissions exiting the furnace. Based on this model, optimal distributions of injected gas are determined such that the largest NO_x reduction is achieved for each value of total injected gas. This optimization is accomplished through the development of a new optimization method based on neural networks. This new optimal control algorithm, which can be used as an alternative generic tool for solving multidimensional nonlinear constrained optimization problems, is described and its results are successfully validated against an off-the-shelf tool for solving mathematical programming problems. Encouraging results obtained using plant data from one of Commonwealth Edison's coal-fired electric power plants demonstrate the feasibility of the overall approach.

Preliminary results show that the use of this intelligent controller will also enable the determination of the most cost-effective operating conditions of the FLGR system by considering, along with the optimal distribution of the injected gas, the cost differential between natural gas and coal and the open-market price of NO_x emission credits. Further study, however, is necessary, including the construction of a more comprehensive database, needed to develop high-fidelity process models and to add carbon monoxide (CO) emissions to the model of the gas reburn system.     

Recent increases in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from coal-fired electric generating units equipped with selective catalytic reduction

The most effective control technology available for the reduction of oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) from coal-fired boilers is selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Installation of SCR on coal-fired electric generating units (EGUs) has grown substantially since the onset of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) first cap and trade program for oxides of nitrogen in 1999, the Ozone Transport Commission (OTC) NO_x Budget Program. Installations have increased from 6 units present in 1998 in the states that encompass the current Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR) ozone season program to 250 in 2014. In recent years, however, the degree of usage of installed SCR technology has been dropping significantly at individual plants. Average seasonal NO_x emission rates increased substantially during the Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) program. These increases coincided with a collapse in the cost of CAIR allowances, which declined to less than the cost of the reagent required to operate installed SCR equipment, and was accompanied by a 77% decline in delivered natural gas prices from their peak in June of 2008 to April 2012, which in turn coincided with a 390% increase in shale gas production between 2008 and 2012. These years also witnessed a decline in national electric generation which, after peaking in 2007, declined through 2013 at an annualized rate of ?0.3%. Scaling back the use of installed SCR on coal-fired plants has resulted in the release of over 290,000 tons of avoidable NO_x during the past five ozone seasons in the states that participated in the CAIR program.

Implications: To function as designed, a cap and trade program must maintain allowance costs that function as a disincentive for the release of the air pollutants that the program seeks to control. If the principle incentive for reducing NO_x emissions is the avoidance of allowance costs, emissions may be expected to increase if costs fall below a critical value, in the absence of additional state or federal limitations. As such, external factors as the cost of competing fuels and a low or negative growth of electric sales may also disincentivize the use of control technologies, the continuation of desirable emission rates will be best maintained by the implementation of performance standards that supplement and complement the emissions trading program.     

IAPCS: A Computer Model that Evaluates Pollution Control Systems for Utility Boilers

The IAPCS model, developed by U.S. EPA’s Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory and made available to the public through the National Technical Information Service, can be used by utility companies, architectural and engineering companies, and regulatory agencies at all levels of government to evaluate commercially available technologies for control of SO₂, NO_x, and particulate matter emissions from coal-fired utility boilers with respect to performance and cost. The model is considered to be a useful tool to compare alternative control strategies to be used by utilities to comply with the requirements of the CAA, and to evaluate the sensitivity of control costs with respect to many of the significant variables affecting costs.

To illustrate the use of the model for site-specific studies, the authors used the model to estimate control costs for SO₂ and NO_x control at Detroit Edison’s Monroe plant and two hypothetical plants under consideration and at three plants operated by New York State Electric and Gas Corporation. The economic and technical assumptions used to drive the model were those proposed by the utilities if cited, and if not cited, the model default values were used. The economic format and methodologies for costs cited in the Electric Power Research Institute’s Technical Assessment Guide are used in the IAPCS model. Depending on the specific conditions and assumptions for the cases evaluated, SO₂ control costs ranged from $417 to $3,159 per ton of SO₂ removed, and NO_x control costs ranged from $461 to $3,537 per ton of NO_x removed or reduced.     

Anthropogenic NOx emissions in Asia in the period 1990–2020

Nitrogen oxides emissions in Asia during the period 1990–2020 due to anthropogenic activity are presented. These estimates are based on the RAINS-ASIA methodology (Foell et al., 1995, Acid Rain and Emission Reduction in Asia, World Bank), which includes a dynamic model for energy forecasts, and information on 6 energy sectors and 9 fuel types. The energy forecasts are combined with process emission factors to yield NO_x emission estimates at the country level, the regional level, and on a 1 degree by 1 degree grid. In 1990 the total NO_x emissions are estimated to be ∼19 Tg NO₂, with China (43%), India (18%) and Japan (13%) accounting for 75% of the total. Emissions by fuel are dominated by burning of hard coal and emissions by economic activity are dominated by the power, transport, and industrial sectors. These new estimates of NO_x emissions are compared with those published by Hameed and Dignon (1988, Atmospheric Environment 22, 441–449) and Akimoto and Narita (1994, Atmospheric Environment 28, 213–225). Future emissions under a no-further-control scenario are also presented. During the period 1990–2020 the NO_x emissions increase by 350%, to ∼86 Tg NO₂. The increase in NO_x emissions by sector and end-use varies between countries, but in all countries this increase is strongest in the power and transport sectors. These results highlight the dynamic nature of energy use in Asia, and the need to take the rapid growth in NO_x emissions in Asia into account in studies of air pollution and atmospheric chemistry.     

Cost of lower NOx emissions: Increased CO2 emissions from heavy-duty diesel engines

This paper highlights the effect of emissions regulations on in-use emissions from heavy-duty vehicles powered by different model year engines. More importantly, fuel economy data for pre- and post-consent decree engines are compared.The objective of this study was to determine the changes in brake-specific emissions of NO_x as a result of emission regulations, and to highlight the effect these have had on brake-specific CO₂ emission; hence, fuel consumption. For this study, in-use, on-road emission measurements were collected. Test vehicles were instrumented with a portable on-board tailpipe emissions measurement system, WVU's Mobile Emissions Measurement System, and were tested on specific routes, which included a mix of highway and city driving patterns, in order to collect engine operating conditions, vehicle speed, and in-use emission rates of CO₂ and NO_x. Comparison of on-road in-use emissions data suggests NO_x reductions as high as 80% and 45% compared to the US Federal Test Procedure and Not-to-Exceed standards for model year 1995–2002. However, the results indicate that the fuel consumption; hence, CO₂ emissions increased by approximately 10% over the same period, when the engines were operating in the Not-to-Exceed region.     

Panel Calls Beneficiation-FGD Combination “Most Economical,Best Ail-Around Choice”

The Commerce Technical Advisory Board (CTAB) Panel on Sulfur Oxide mission Control Technology was established in the spring of_1975 by the Secretary of Commerce in response to the urgent need for the use of coal to meet the Nation’s energy requirements, while maintaining the SO₂ emission standards resulting from the Clean Air Act of 1970.

The Panel’s 20 members and 11 consultants, drawn broadly from industry, government, and academia are highly qualified in the diverse fields pertinent to SO_x control technologies. They committed themselves to make an objective analysis of how soon, at what cost, and with what trade-offs commercially available SO₂ continuous emissions controls can be installed, with arrangements for waste disposal, in all coal-fifed electricity generating plants in the populous Northeastern quadrant of the United States.

In its final report, submitted on September 10, 1975 to Dr. Betsy Ancker-Johnson, Assistant Secretary for Science and Technology, U. S.Department of Commerce, and Chairman of the Commerce Technical Advisory Board, the Panel concludes that installation and operation of continuous SO_x emission controls on all Northeastern coal-fired electricity generating plants cannot be met until the early 1980’s, and then only with a maximum effort beginning immediately. Specific site and market constraints will determine the most economical and practical control technology for any given plant. The Panel believes that coal beneficiation, alone where it meets standards, or combined with lime/limestone flue gas desulfurization, often represents the lowest cost control technique.     

Aircraft measurements of O3, NOx,CO, VOCs,and SO2 in the Yangtze River Delta region

In this study, air pollutants, including ozone (O₃), nitrogen oxides (NO_x = NO + NO₂), carbon monoxides (CO), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) measured in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region during several air flights between September/30 and October/11 are analyzed. This measurement provides horizontal and vertical distributions of air pollutants in the YRD region. The analysis of the result shows that the measured O₃ concentrations range from 20 to 60 ppbv. These values are generally below the US national standard (84 ppbv), suggesting that at the present, the O₃ pollutions are modest in this region. The NO_x concentrations have strong spatial and temporal variations, ranging from 3 to 40 ppbv. The SO₂ concentrations also have large spatial and temporal variations, ranging from 1 to 35 ppbv. The high concentrations of CO are measured with small variations, ranging from 3 to 7 ppmv. The concentrations of VOCs are relatively low, with the total VOC concentrations of less than 6 ppbv. The relative small VOC concentrations and the relative large NO_x concentrations suggest that the O₃ chemical formation is under a strong VOC-limited regime in the YRD region. The measured O₃ and NO_x concentrations are strongly anti-correlated, indicating that enhancement in NO_x concentrations leads to decrease in O₃ concentrations. Moreover, the O₃ concentrations are more sensitive to NO_x concentrations in the rural region than in the city region. The ratios of Δ[O₃]/Δ[NO_x] are ?2.3 and ?0.25 in the rural and in the city region, respectively. In addition, the measured NO_x and SO₂ concentrations are strongly correlated, highlighting that the NO_x and SO₂ are probably originated from same emission sources. Because SO₂ emissions are significantly originated from coal burnings, the strong correlation between SO₂ and NO_x concentrations suggests that the NO_x emission sources are mostly from coal burned sources. As a result, the future automobile increases could lead to rapid enhancements in O₃ concentrations in the YRD region.     

Air pollution at a hotspot location in Delhi: Detecting trends,seasonal cycles and oscillations

This paper uses spectral methods to analyze changes in air quality at a single monitoring site in Delhi since 2000. Power spectral density calculations of daily concentration data for particulate matter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), oxides of nitrogen (NO_x) and oxides of sulfur (SO_x) reveal the presence of trends and periodic oscillations for all the pollutants. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is used to decompose daily data into statistically significant non-linear trends, seasonal cycles and other oscillations. Periods of sharp reductions were observed for both SO_x and CO concentrations in 2001 and 2002, respectively. NO_x concentration trends show a sustained rise from 2000 to 2004, followed by small decline thereafter. PM10 concentration trends remain essentially unchanged over the time period. All pollutants also show strong annual and biannual cycles. The observed trends in CO and NO_x likely relate changes in Delhi's vehicular traffic emissions. The sharp drop in both the trend and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of CO coincides with the switch to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) as a fuel for Delhi's public transport fleet. Observed changes in SO_x and PM10 concentrations were most likely caused by sources unrelated to vehicular traffic.