基于交叉谱分析的气象干旱与农业干旱滞后响应研究

为解决干旱问题、实现区域的早期干旱预测,该文对山东省区域应用交叉谱方法分析气象干旱与农业干旱之间的联系.首先,选取1982-2014年的NDVI和降水量日数据进行5 d平均,采用Savitzky-Golay滤波对NDVI时间序列重建;其次,根据山东省降水量的时空特征,将1 a划分湿润期和干旱期两个阶段;最后,采用NDV...     

3S支持下的锡林郭勒盟旱灾救助区划研究

根据自然灾害区划和灾害救助理论,分别构建了内蒙古锡林郭勒盟灾前备灾能力、备灾物品、灾中应急响应能力和灾后恢复能力的模型,并利用先进的3S技术和计算机存储技术,综合得出锡林郭勒盟旱灾救灾等级区划.最后针对各个等级的旗县提出救助方案.     

The Role of Food Aid in Drought and Recovery: Oxfam's North Turkana (Kenya) Drought Relief Programme, 1992–94

Regional droughts carry the seeds of catastrophe: the immediate risk is famine; the long-term risk is destitution. Preventing both situations is an appropriate, if not essential, goal for relief agencies. In the past, responses to hunger in Turkana District (north-west Kenya) have taken the form of traditional feeding programmes. A better understanding of the boom/bust cycles in pastoralist systems has, however, produced new relief strategies. A central tenet of these strategies is the acceptance that relief aid should assume two roles: humanitarian—to overcome food deficits—and economic—to overcome 'income' deficits. Arguments in favour of a broader role for food aid are tested with a case study of a drought relief programme in north Turkana between 1992–1994. Field studies confirmed that when food aid is integrated as an asset into household resources, it can strengthen economic recovery. Ultimately, the extent to which relief operations are able to protect both people's lives and their livelihoods is the key to more sustainable development in drought-prone areas.     

先秦时期农业减灾救荒思想研究

我国先秦时期形成了较为系统的农业减灾救荒思想,它包含灾前预防思想、农业减灾思想和灾后救荒思想三大部分。中国古代的减灾和救荒两大思想体系由此成为有机整体,这在三代(夏、商、周时期)和春秋战国时期农业生产的转型发展过程中产生了积极的促进作用。研究这一时期的农业减灾救荒思想对于后世的防灾减灾极具借鉴意义。     

GIS支持下的锡林郭勒盟旱灾救灾区划初探

基于自然灾害系统理论,构建内蒙古锡林郭勒盟的旱灾评价系统模式,表明灾情是致灾因子、孕灾环境和承灾体综合作用的产物。以锡林郭勒盟的旱灾程度、救灾等级、备灾能力（经济水平与社会状况）、应急能力（物资储备及物流通达水平）、恢复能力（恢复与重建）等重要指标为核心,对锡林郭勒盟的旱灾灾前、灾中、灾后三个阶段的响应能力进行评价与地域划分,并与锡林郭勒盟的旱灾等级区划相结合,构建了灾害-响应程度模型。     

吉林西部农业旱灾变化趋势及其成因分析

利用吉林西部近50年的农业成灾面积统计资料和气象资料，提示了西部的农业旱灾整体呈波动上升的变化趋势。特别是进入20世纪80年代以后，在全球温暖化的大环境背景下．旱灾已成为当地农业可待续发展的最主要的障碍因素，并引起一系列的生态环境问题。影响农业的旱灾既有自然因素又有人为因素。针对吉林西部的旱灾，提出了一系列减灾对策。     

河北省农业旱灾脆弱性区划与减灾

脆弱性是农业遭受干旱影响和旱灾损失的必要条件,它决定旱灾影响的强度。本文对河北省农业旱灾脆弱性进行了区划,分析了区域农业旱灾脆弱性变化的成因,针对区域农业旱灾脆弱性累进的动态压力,提出了调整人类行为、降低脆弱性、减轻灾害影响和损失的思路。     

农业旱灾承灾体脆弱性评价--以湖南鼎城区为例

农业旱灾的形成是降水不足、不均与农业生产系统脆弱性共同作用的结果,脆弱性的高低会起到"放大"或"缩小"灾情的作用.本文以湖南鼎城区为例,通过分析该区旱灾致灾因子的特点,确定旱年年型的划分标准及对气象资料进行统计,发现该区干旱的季节性特点是秋旱比夏旱多、比夏旱严重.在此基础上,分析轻旱、中重旱、极重旱不同干旱程度下灾情形成过程及其与承灾体脆弱性的关系,构建了不同的脆弱性评价指标体系,并以不同干旱程度的旱年为实例进行评价.结果表明鼎城区承灾体脆弱性的分布有一定的区域性,其脆弱度高低排序为西北山岗地区、南部低山及丘陵区、中部平原及山岗地区、东北部河湖及平原区,与实际灾情的分布规律基本一致.通过分析不同干旱程度下各区脆弱度的形成和变化原因,提出了具有针对性的降低农业旱灾脆弱性的具体措施.     

江苏省近40年农业干旱发生规律

利用１９６０年至１９９８年全省各站降水量、蒸散量和旱情记载等资料,研究确定了干旱指数计算的方法和不同季节的干旱指标。在此基础上,分析总结了江苏省近４０年来的农业干旱发生规律,发现９０年代以来江苏省秋旱发生概率呈上升趋势。     

辽西北地区农业干旱灾害风险评价与风险区划研究

以辽西北29个农业县(市、区)为研究区域,选取辽西北最主要的玉米作物作为研究对象,从造成农业干旱灾害的致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露性、脆弱性和抗旱减灾能力4个方面着手,利用自然灾害风险指数法、加权综合评价法和层次分析法,建立了农业干旱灾害风险指数(ADRI),用以表征农业干旱灾害风险程度;借助GIS技术,绘制辽西北农业干旱灾害风险评价区划图,将风险评价区划图与2006年辽西北受干旱影响粮食减产系数区划图对比,发现两者可以较好的匹配。研究结果可为当地农业干旱灾害预警、保险,以及有关部门的旱灾管理、减灾决策制定提供理论依据和指导。     

Conflict, the Continuum and Chronic Emergencies: A Critical Analysis of the Scope for Linking Relief, Rehabilitation and Development Planning in Sudan

The concept of the ‘relief-to-development continuum’ has been the subject of renewed interest in recent years. Concerned by the rise in relief budgets over the past decade and the absolute fall in development aid resources, support has been growing for the concept of developmental relief. In the context of complex political emergencies, it has been argued further that as effective development aid can reduce vulnerability to the impact of natural hazards, so it might also be used to contribute to a process of conflict prevention. In this way, the concept of the relief-development continuum has become entwined with broader discussions about the contribution of official development assistance to conflict management. Drawing on a Review of Operation Lifeline Sudan (OLS), this paper cautions against uncritical application of the concept of the continuum in complex political emergencies, and of rehabilitation in particular, in the current Sudanese context. It argues that in order to move legitimately from relief aid programming to development aid programming, three fundamental conditions must be in place: first, a minimum level of security, respect for human rights and humanitarian access. Second, empirical evidence from the field needs to demonstrate that the emergency is over. Finally, moving from relief to development aid programming is contingent on donor governments accepting the legitimacy of national governmental structures and of the rebel movements. In other words, for donor governments, moving along the continuum is in significant part determined by foreign policy considerations, not only technical ones. Consideration needs to be given to the actual and perceived legitimation of the different movements that a move to rehabilitation might be seen to imply. The paper argues that none of these conditions had been satisfied in Sudan by mid-1997. Instead of a process of normalisation paving the way to long-term development, the current situation in Sudan is better described as a chronic political emergency. In such a context, uncritical pursuit of developmental strategies may negatively affect the welfare of conflict-affected populations.     

农牧交错带农业旱灾适应模式与区域可持续发展——以内蒙古兴和县为例

农业旱灾是全球关注的焦点问题之一,同时也是影响我国农业生产最严重的自然灾害之一。中国北方农牧交错带由于处在季风的尾闾区,降水极不稳定,旱灾频繁发生。以内蒙古兴和县为例,在实地考察、统计数据分析和农民访谈等基础上,从调整种植结构、增加非农经营收入、农牧交错的生产方式、生态建设以及设施农业五个方面,对农牧交错带的农业旱灾适应措施进行了深入剖析。研究表明,农牧交错带农业旱灾适应模式包括:"因地制宜"的空间适应模式、"减轻风险"的时间适应模式和"风险共担"的社会适应模式三个方面,研究成果可为区域防范旱灾风险、制定防灾减灾对策、实现区域可持续发展提供借鉴。     

Depolarising the 'Broadened' and 'Back-to-basics' Relief Models

Prompted by the calls in recent years to link relief practice to peace-building, development, or both, several conferences and papers have recently mounted a strong critique, seeing these 'broadenings' of relief as 'eroding' or 'corrupting' core humanitarian principles and playing into neo-isolationist agendas to slash humanitarianism. This paper argues that whereas these critiques have important goals in mind when they encourage a concentration on the basics of relief, there has been a loss of subtlety in the ensuing debate. Considering each element of the debate in turn, the paper argues that there is more common ground between 'new' and 'old', 'broadened' and 'basics' relief than at first appears. In concluding, it is argued that further research on key questions, and an openness to hear all perspectives will get us further than entrenched positions and rallying cries.     

防震救灾：高科技之路

高新技术在防震减灾事业中的作用与地位．在1999年8月17日土耳其7.4级地震抗震救灾中大显身手．充分显示出威力和作用．使我们在抢险救灾时面对被埋压人员的用境和无奈时看到了希望．得到解脱。从中醒悟到,科学技术是防震减灾的重要手段．是推动减灾事业发展的推动力。在防灾上．科技含量越高．伤亡人数就会越少;在救灾上,高科技手段越多．从死亡边缘拉回来的人就越多。在2008年四川汶川大地震抗震救灾中．卫星遥感等先进技术也发挥突出的作用．为抢救人民生命财产赢得了时间．提供准确的信息支持。     

Cross-Border Relief Operations in Eritrea and Tigray

Cross-border relief operations to non-government controlled regions of Eritrea and Tigray have been on-going since before the 1984/85 famine in Ethiopia became international news. Little is officially known about the character and scale of these operations, however, as a result of their politically sensitive nature. The background, assets and limitations of the operations are examined, with a focus on the period 1985–1988. The report also addresses issues arising from the delivery of assistance in the context of so-called internal wars against the central government.     

减灾救灾的经济学分析

自2008年5月12日四川汶川地震以来,亿万中国人民都沉浸在悲痛与感动之中。痛定思痛,我们必须对灾难造成的损失有一个清楚的认识,为了将灾难带来的损失降到最小,需要从经济学的视角来分析一下诸如地震、洪水、台风等造成的损失以及灾后的恢复重建,希望能为当前和今后的减灾救灾提供一些帮助。     

陕西省大旱年发生概率及可能发生的年份预测

应用数理统计方法及三元、四元、五元可公度法分别推算了21世纪陕西省大旱年发生的概率和预测了该省未来30多年间可能发生大旱灾的年份.运算结果显示:陕西省在21世纪的100年中,大旱年发生次数至少为一次、两次、三次、四次、五次的概率分别为94.52%、86.65%、72.91%、54.78%、35.57%;在未来30多年间陕西省有可能在2006年、2008年、2024年、2031年发生重大旱灾.