An EM algorithm for capture-recapture estimation

Analysis of capture—recapture data often involves maximizing a complex likelihood function with many unknown parameters. Statistical inference based on selection of a proper model depends on successful attainment of this maximum. An EM algorithm is developed for obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of capture and survival probabilities conditional on first capture from standard capture—recapture data. The algorithm does not require the use of numerical derivatives which may improve precision and stability relative to other estimation schemes. The asymptotic covariance matrix of the estimated parameters can be obtained using the supplemented EM algorithm. The EM algorithm is compared to a more traditional Newton-Raphson algorithm with both a simulated and a real dataset. The two algorithms result in the same parameter estimates, but Newton-Raphson variance estimates depend on a numerically estimated Hessian matrix that is sensitive to step size choice.     

Designs with a priori information for nonmarket valuation with choice experiments: A Monte Carlo study

Good practice in experimental design is essential for choice experiments used in nonmarket valuation. We review the practice of experimental design for choice experiments in environmental economics and we compare it with advances in experimental design. We then evaluate the statistical efficiency of four different designs by means of Monte Carlo experiments. Correct and incorrect specifications are investigated with gradually more precise information on the true parameter values. The data generating process (DGP) is based on estimates from data of a real study. Results indicate that D-efficient designs are promising, especially when based on Bayesian algorithms with informative prior. However, if good quality a priori information is lacking, and if there is strong uncertainty about the real DGP—conditions which are quite common in environmental valuation—then practitioners might be better off with shifted designs built from conventional fractional factorial designs for linear models.     

Market responses to hurricanes

This paper uses one of the strongest hurricanes to hit the US, Andrew in 1992, to define a quasi-random experiment that permits estimation of the responses of housing values to information about new hurricanes. Lee County, Florida did not experience damage from Andrew. The storm was a “near-miss.” We hypothesize that Andrew conveyed risk information to homeowners in the county. A difference-in-differences (DND) framework identifies the effect of this information on property values in areas likely to experience significant storm damage. The DND findings indicate at least a 19 percent decline in property values.     

Inference about the ratio of means from Negative Binomial paired count data

We derive some statistical properties of the distribution of two Negative Binomial random variables conditional on their total. This type of model can be appropriate for paired count data with Poisson over-dispersion such that the variance is a quadratic function of the mean. This statistical model is appropriate in many ecological applications including comparative fishing studies of two vessels and or gears. The parameter of interest is the ratio of pair means. We show that the conditional means and variances are different from the more commonly used Binomial model with variance adjusted for over-dispersion, or the Beta-Binomial model. The conditional Negative Binomial model is complicated because it does not eliminate nuisance parameters like in the Poisson case. Maximum likelihood estimation with the unconditional Negative Binomial model can result in biased estimates of the over-dispersion parameter and poor confidence intervals for the ratio of means when there are many nuisance parameters. We propose three approaches to deal with nuisance parameters in the conditional Negative Binomial model. We also study a random effects Binomial model for this type of data, and we develop an adjustment to the full-sample Negative Binomial profile likelihood to reduce the bias caused by nuisance parameters. We use simulations with these methods to examine bias, precision, and accuracy of estimators and confidence intervals. We conclude that the maximum likelihood method based on the full-sample Negative Binomial adjusted profile likelihood produces the best statistical inferences for the ratio of means when paired counts have Negative Binomial distributions. However, when there is uncertainty about the type of Poisson over-dispersion then a Binomial random effects model is a good choice.     

The resource curse revisited and revised: A tale of paradoxes and red herrings

We critically evaluate the empirical basis for the so-called resource curse and find that, despite the topic's popularity in economics and political science research, this apparent paradox may be a red herring. The most commonly used measure of “resource abundance” can be more usefully interpreted as a proxy for “resource dependence”—endogenous to underlying structural factors. In multiple estimations that combine resource abundance and dependence, institutional, and constitutional variables, we find that (i) resource abundance, constitutions, and institutions determine resource dependence, (ii) resource dependence does not affect growth, and (iii) resource abundance positively affects growth and institutional quality.     

Orientation ofRhizophagus grandis (Coleoptera: Rhizophagidae) to oxygenated monoterpenes in a species-specific predator-prey relationship

Summary The predator,Rhizophagus grandis, is linked to its specific prey,Dendroctonus micans, by semiochemical signals regulating oviposition and long range orientation. A mixture of simple oxygenated monoterpenes [(–)—fenchone, (–)—pinocamphone, rac. camphor, terpinene-4-ol, borneol, fenchol and verbenone], identified from the frass ofD. micans has been found to be extremely active in a flight windtunnel as a long—range attractant for the predator. The mixture elicited 84 % of the response to larval frass of the prey. Excluding pinocamphone from the mixture did not influence its activity. Also, changing the absolute configurations of some of the components (fenchol, terpinene-4-ol and borneol) did not influence the predators' response. However, the addition of (–)—-terpineol increased the attractivity of the synthetic blend to almost that of larval frass of the prey. Ecological implications of the identified semiochemicals and their use in pest management are discussed.     

Crop substitution in the estimation of economic benefits due to ozone reduction

Prior estimates of economic loss from ozone damage to food crops have not allowed for farmer substitution in inputs—and particularly have not allowed for acreage shifts between crops—in response to yield changes. This is a potentially serious problem since benefits from air pollution control legislation may also be estimated without allowing for this direct substitution. This study explores how much acreage shifting might occur between corn, soybeans, and wheat if ozone were reduced to background levels, and how such substitution might affect the estimation of benefits from ozone reduction.     

Estimation of the mean in line intercept sampling

Ratio estimation of the parametric mean for a characteristic measured on plants sampled by a line intercept method is presented and evaluated via simulation using different plant dispersion patterns (Poisson, regular cluster, and Poisson cluster), plant width variances, and numbers of lines. The results indicate that on average the estimates are close to the parametric mean under all three dispersion patterns. Given a fixed number of lines, variability of the estimates is similar across dispersion patterns with variability under the Poisson pattern slightly smaller than varia-bility under the cluster patterns. No variance estimates were negative under the Poisson pattern, but some estimates were negative under the cluster patterns for smaller numbers of lines. Variance estimates become closer to zero similarly for all spatial patterns as the number of lines increases. Ratio estimation of the parametric mean in line intercept sampling works better, from the viewpoint of approximate unbiasedness and variability of estimates, under the Poisson pattern with larger numbers of lines than other combinations of spatial patterns, plant width variances and numbers of lines.     

Aspects of iron and nitrogen nutrition in the red tide dinoflagellateGymnodinium sanguineum

Iron-stress-mediated effects on biochemical constituents of the red tide dinoflagellateGymnodinium sanguineum Hirasaka were examined in 1988 by comparing Fe-replete and Fe-deplete batch cultures. The influence of nitrogen source (NO₃ or NH₄) on characteristics of Fe-deplete cells was also studied [i.e., Fe-deplete/NO₃-grown (= — Fe/NO₃) vs Fe-deplete/NH₄-grown (= — Fe/NH₄)]. Common to both N sources were reductions of chlorophylla (chla) and Fe quotas (per cell volume) by 75% and ca. 1.5 orders of magnitude, respectively, under Fe depletion. The Fe requirement ofG. sanguineum exceeded those of certain neritic diatoms by one to two orders of magnitude. — Fe/NH₄ cells exhibited 30 to 50% greater N quotas and free amino acid:protein ratios than did Fe-deplete cells grown on NO₃. In vivo fluorescence:chla increased with Fe deficiency particularly in — Fe/NO₃ cultures, surpassing — Fe/NH₄ values by ca. two-fold. Effects of Fe depletion were consistent with this element's essential role in the biosynthesis of chla and components of the photosynthetic electron transport (PET) system, and also in NO₃ utilization. Fe:N ratios were larger (1.5-fold) for iron-deficient NO₃-grown than NH₄-grown cells, likely reflecting the Fe content of NO₃ assimilatory enzymes [nitrate (NR) and nitrite (NiR) reductase] and of electron transport components needed to provide reductant, coupled with a diminished capacity of — Fe/NO₃ cells to acquire and assimilate nitrogen. Indicators of PET efficiency suggested that under iron stress, supply of Fe for NR and NiR is partly at the expense of iron-containing PET components. Utilization of nitrate by NO₃-grown cells was inhibited sufficiently by Fe depletion to yield symptoms bordering on N deficiency. In an ecological context, the most important effect mediated by nitrogen source may be the determination of critical Q_Fe (i.e., Fe required to just sustain maximal growth), thereby regulating the degree of growth limitation for a given subsaturating iron concentration.     

Congestion and participation in outdoor recreation: A household production function approach

This paper examines the effects of congestion on recreational behavior within a household production model of consumer behavior. We assume that congestion affects the household's ability to produce constant quality recreational service flows and derive a reduced-form model for participation decisions in remote and developed camping. Empirical estimates of the effects of a congestion measure on the conditional probability of participation as well as on the level of participation are estimated for each activity by the type of trip using information from the 1972 National Recreation Survey. The findings suggest that congestion was most likely to affect the decision to participate and not the level once that decision had been made. While differences in these effects were observed across the activities studied, it is not clear how they should be interpreted since our congestion measure was a proxy variable likely to perform better for remote camping than developed camping.     

A criterion validity test of the contingent valuation method: comparing hypothetical and actual voting behavior for a public referendum

This study pursues external validation of contingent valuation by comparing survey results with the voting outcome of a Corvallis, Oregon, referendum to fund a riverfront improvement project through increased property taxes. Survey respondents hypothetically make a voting decision—with no financial consequences—on the upcoming referendum. The survey sample consists of respondents verified to have voted in the election. We use available precinct-level election data to compare the proportion of “yes” survey and referendum votes as well as estimate voting models and mean willingness to pay (WTP) based on the two sets of data. We find that survey responses match the actual voting outcome and WTP estimates based on the two are not statistically different. Contrary to similar studies, our statistical results do not depend on re-coding the majority of “undecided” survey responses to “no.” Furthermore, such a re-coding of responses may be inappropriate for our data set.     

Is a voluntary approach an effective environmental policy instrument?: A case for environmental management systems

Using Japanese facility-level data from an OECD survey, we estimate the effects of implementation of ISO14001 and publication of environmental reports on the facilities’ environmental performance. While most previous studies focused on an index of emissions toxicity, this study examines three areas of impacts, none of which have been explored in the literature: natural resource use, solid waste generation, and wastewater effluent. The study is also unique in that the effectiveness of ISO14001 is considered in relation to environmental regulations. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, both ISO14001 and report publication help reduce all three impacts; the former appears more effective in all areas except wastewater. Second, environmental regulations do not weaken the effect of ISO14001. Third, assistance programs offered by local governments—a voluntary approach—promote facilities’ adoption of ISO14001. These findings suggest that governments can use command-and-control and voluntary approaches concurrently.     

Method of estimating the standing stock of Trochus niloticus incorporating Landsat satellite data,with application to the trochus resources of the Bourke Isles,Torres Strait,Australia

The habitat of Trochus niloticus in the Bourke Isles, Torres Strait, was classified into areas of a Landsat image, using high-ratio values of green (Band 2) to red (Band 3) light, along the windward reef margins. These shallow-water (< 15 m) areas have a coral and rubble/algal pavement cover, which constitutes the optimal habitat for this gastropod. The habitat was sampled to estimate the abundance of T. niloticus. The proportion of commercial-sized individuals was estimated by measuring the basal width of all individuals in a sample. A multistage sample design incorporating three spatial scales -100 m² (transect), 1500 m² (site) and 1 km² (reef) — was used to provide variance estimates for sample-design optimisation and to provide data on the spatial variation of abundance. Most variation (68%) in abundance was within reefs and was attributable to differences in reef cover. Variations in abundance and time costs for sampling 2 and 4 m transects were compared; the 2 m transect was more efficient than the 4 m transect. The abundance estimates were combined with habitat-area estimates and the proportion of commerical-sized individuals was estimated at a standing stock of 186000 (24% precision), or 14 t of commerical-sized T. niloticus.     

Spoil disposal

Summary The colliery spoil problem in existing mining areas requires the same attention as that in the new coalfields. The Yorkshire coalfield has particular problems since so much land near collieries has already been tipped on. Suggested short-term and long-term solutions are outlined. Some will be successful, others may not.The Commission on Energy and the Environment has made many recommendations to improve the existing situation in the coalfields. How many of these will the Government support? The National Coal Board promised a high standard of environmental treatment at the Belvoir public inquiry. Will these high standards be reflected in developments on the existing coalfields?Effective day-to-day management can have beneficial results out of all proportion to expenditure. All collieries should match up to the high standards achieved at the better ones. Is there any reason why lagoons should be features of colliery spoil disposal for the next decade? Can colliery spoil be used more extensively as an alternative material in construction? The National Coal Board and the local authorities need a strategic plan for coal development including spoil disposal and in detail need an agreed plan for short-term spoil disposal at each colliery.Commitment and research is needed to look into methods of backstowage — which tackles the problem at source. Can other European experience help in this matter? Fluidised-bed technology may lead to a reduction in spoil. Maximum use will have to be made of local tipping opportunities, whether quarry, voids, opencast coal sites, new land forms or upgrading agricultural land — but they won't happen on their own. Effort and determination will be needed. Long-distance movement of spoil appears expensive. It cannot be financed under the NCB's present system of accounting and certainly not financed by local authorities. Costs may need to be met nationally. The financing of major spoil solutions may well be the major problem in making and progress in any direction — but a national resource such as coal should be developed through a national approach to overall costs.     

Bridging information domains to improve ecological understanding of biological invasions in a marine ecosystem

We devised a practical method for integrating information on 2 marine invasive species using 3 different approaches: standardized ecological monitoring, online-reporting databases, and surveys of anglers and crabbers. Focusing on 2 recently introduced species with different characteristics, the Asian shore crab (Hemigrapsus sanguineus) and Chinese mitten crab (Eriocheir sinensis), in the Hudson-Raritan watershed of New York and New Jersey, we used sensitivity analyses to explore the relative contribution of each information source to knowledge of species abundance and distribution. All 3 information sources contributed something unique to understanding abundance and distribution of the introduced crabs. Online and survey data on Asian shore crabs significantly affected predictions of abundance, whereas monitoring data did not. When survey data were omitted, abundance estimates were unchanged over time, but when they were included, the model predicted an increased abundance in 2012. All 3 data sets for the Asian shore crab significantly affected estimates of species coverage; surveys had the biggest influence, increasing range size by 4097.25 km². For the catadromous Chinese mitten crab, ecological monitoring data collected in freshwater shortly after the original sighting significantly shaped model estimates for abundance and documented the establishment phase of the mitten crab in an area outside the spatial scope of the surveyed resource users. However, the survey data significantly enlarged mitten crab range-size estimates by 6498.01 km². By demonstrating that data integration produced an image of the invasion process that would not have emerged had we used any 1 method individually, model results provide evidence for the advantages of an interdisciplinary approach.     

Non-parametric MLE for Poisson species abundance models allowing for heterogeneity between species

The proper management of an ecological population is greatly aided by solid information about its species' abundances. For the general heterogeneous Poisson species abundance setting, we develop the non-parametric mle for the entire probability model, namely for the total number N of species and the generating distribution F for the expected values of the species' abundances. Solid estimation of the entire probability model allows us to develop generator-based measures of ecological diversity and evenness which have inferences over similar regions. Also, our methods produce a solid goodness-of-fit test for our model as well as a likelihood ratio test to examine if there is heterogeneity in the expected values of the species' abundances. These estimates and tests are examined, in detail, in the paper. In particular, we apply our methods to important data from the National Breeding Bird Survey and discuss how our methods can also be easily applied to sweep net sampling data. To further examine our methods, we provide simulations for several illustrative situations.     

Optimal energy use in a polluted environment

Some of the basic issues involved in the optimal intertemporal use of energy resources when there are environmental spillovers are examined at a macroeconomic level and in a world of certainty. Several scenarios are considered with varying assumptions concerning the depletability of the energy resource stock and the nature of pollution production. In particular, with an accumulating form of pollution it is shown that initially the energy resource should be used more slowly to reduce environmental damage and over the plan the rate of use should be increased—a counter-Hotellian result.     

Accounting for rate instability and spatial patterns in the boundary analysis of cancer mortality maps

Boundary analysis of cancer maps may highlight areas where causative exposures change through geographic space, the presence of local populations with distinct cancer incidences, or the impact of different cancer control methods. Too often, such analysis ignores the spatial pattern of incidence or mortality rates and overlooks the fact that rates computed from sparsely populated geographic entities can be very unreliable. This paper proposes a new methodology that accounts for the uncertainty and spatial correlation of rate data in the detection of significant edges between adjacent entities or polygons. Poisson kriging is first used to estimate the risk value and the associated standard error within each polygon, accounting for the population size and the risk semivariogram computed from raw rates. The boundary statistic is then defined as half the absolute difference between kriged risks. Its reference distribution, under the null hypothesis of no boundary, is derived through the generation of multiple realizations of the spatial distribution of cancer risk values. This paper presents three types of neutral models generated using methods of increasing complexity: the common random shuffle of estimated risk values, a spatial re-ordering of these risks, or p-field simulation that accounts for the population size within each polygon. The approach is illustrated using age-adjusted pancreatic cancer mortality rates for white females in 295 US counties of the Northeast (1970–1994). Simulation studies demonstrate that Poisson kriging yields more accurate estimates of the cancer risk and how its value changes between polygons (i.e., boundary statistic), relatively to the use of raw rates or local empirical Bayes smoother. When used in conjunction with spatial neutral models generated by p-field simulation, the boundary analysis based on Poisson kriging estimates minimizes the proportion of type I errors (i.e., edges wrongly declared significant) while the frequency of these errors is predicted well by the p-value of the statistical test.

Zooplankton proportion estimates from non-uniform sample volumes

The relative abundance of organisms from different taxa provides information about ecosystem health and diversity. When the numbers of sampled organisms are modelled as Poisson counts, and the sample volumes are not uniform, variance for the proportion attributable to each taxon is difficult to compute. We present a method for computing approximate variances for this situation. The point estimates and their standard errors reduce to the standard multinomial maximum likelihood results when sample volumes are uniform. Further, given initial estimates of population densities for the taxa of interest, optimal sample volumes can be computed. The methods are illustrated for zooplankton counts from Andrus Lake, Michigan.     

Statistical inference on patch-specific survival and movement rates from marked animals

Empirical estimates of patch-specific survival and movement rates are needed to parametrize spatially explicit population models, and for inference on the effects of habitat quality and fragmentation on populations. Data from radio-marked animals, in which both the fates and habitat locations of animals are known over time, can be used in conjunction with continuous-time proportional hazards models to obtain inferences on survival rates. Discrete-time conditional logistic models may provide inference on both survival and movement rates. We use Monte Carlo simulation to investigate accuracy of estimates of survival from both approaches, and movement rates from conditional logistic regression, for two habitats. Bias was low (relative bias < 0.04) and interval coverage accurate (close to the nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect on survival based on proportional hazards. Bias was high ( relative bias 0.60) and interval coverage poor ( = 0.26 vs. nominal 0.95) for estimates of habitat effect based on conditional logistic regression; bias was especially influenced by heterogeneity in survival and the shape of the hazard function, whereas both bias and coverage were affected by ‘memory’ effects in movement patterns. Bias estimates of movement rate was low ( relative bias < 0.05), but interval coverage was poor ( = 0.48–0.80), possibly as a result of poor performance of a Taylor series estimate of variance. An example is provided from a radio-telemetry study of 47 wintering American woodcock (Scolopax minor), illustrating practical difficulties in field studies to parametrize these models. We also discuss extensions of continuous-time models to explicitly include a movement process, and further examine tradeoffs between continuous and discrete models.