Value of information for climate observing systems

The Interagency Working Group Memo on the social cost of carbon is used to compute the value of information (VOI) of climate observing systems. A generic decision context is posited in which society switches from a business as usual (BAU) emissions path to a reduced emissions path upon achieving sufficient confidence that a trigger variable exceeds a stipulated critical value. Using assessments of natural variability and uncertainty of measuring instruments, it is possible to compute the time at which the required confidence would be reached under the current and under a new observing system, if indeed the critical value is reached. Economic damages (worldwide) from carbon emissions are computed with an integrated assessment model. The more accurate observing system acquires the required confidence earlier and switches sooner to the reduced emissions path, thereby avoiding more damages which would otherwise be incurred by BAU emissions. The difference in expected net present value of averted damages under the two observing systems is the VOI of the new observing system relative to the existing system. As illustration, the VOI for the proposed space-borne CLARREO system relative to current space-borne systems is computed. Depending on details of the decision context, the VOI ranges from 2 to 30 trillion US dollars.     

Lessons learned from natural and industrial analogues for storage of carbon dioxide

The deployment of CCS (carbon capture and storage) at industrial scale implies the development of effective monitoring tools. Noble gases are tracers usually proposed to track CO₂. This methodology, combined with the geochemistry of carbon isotopes, has been tested on available analogues.At first, gases from natural analogues were sampled in the Colorado Plateau and in the French carbogaseous provinces, in both well-confined and leaking-sites. Second, we performed a 2-years tracing experience on an underground natural gas storage, sampling gas each month during injection and withdrawal periods.In natural analogues, the geochemical fingerprints are dependent on the containment criterion and on the geological context, giving tools to detect a leakage of deep-CO₂ toward surface. This study also provides information on the origin of CO₂, as well as residence time of fluids within the crust and clues on the physico-chemical processes occurring during the geological story.The study on the industrial analogue demonstrates the feasibility of using noble gases as tracers of CO₂. Withdrawn gases follow geochemical trends coherent with mixing processes between injected gas end-members. Physico-chemical processes revealed by the tracing occur at transient state.These two complementary studies proved the interest of geochemical monitoring to survey the CO₂ behaviour, and gave information on its use.     

Intermediate storage of carbon dioxide in geological formations: A technical perspective

Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) through CO₂ flooding has been practiced on a commercial basis for the last 35 years and continues today at several sites, currently injecting in total over 30 million tons of CO₂ annually. This practice is currently exclusively for economic gain, but can potentially contribute to the reduction of emissions of greenhouse gases provided it is implemented on a large scale. Optimal operations in distributing CO₂ to CO₂-EOR or enhanced gas recovery (EGR) projects (referred to here collectively as CO₂-EHR) on a large scale and long time span imply that intermediate storage of CO₂ in geological formations may be a key component. Intermediate storage is defined as the storage of CO₂ in geological media for a limited time span such that the CO₂ can be sufficiently reproduced for later use in CO₂-EHR. This paper investigates the technical aspects, key individual parameters and possibilities of intermediate storage of CO₂ in geological formations aiming at large scale implementation of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) for deep emission reduction. The main parameters are thus the depth of injection and density, CO₂ flow and transport processes, storage mechanisms, reservoir heterogeneity, the presence of impurities, the type of the reservoirs and the duration of intermediate storage. Structural traps with no flow of formation water combined with proper injection planning such as gas-phase injection favour intermediate storage in deep saline aquifers. In depleted oil and gas fields, high permeability, homogeneous reservoirs with structural traps (e.g. anticlinal structures) are good candidates for intermediate CO₂ storage. Intuitively, depleted natural gas reservoirs can be potential candidates for intermediate storage of carbon dioxide due to similarity in storage characteristics.     

A geophysical perspective of value of information: examples of spatial decisions for groundwater sustainability

The value of information (VOI) can be used to determine what kind of spatial information maybe relevant and useful for groundwater sustainability decisions. In this paper, the unique challenges for applying VoI to spatial information from geophysical data are described. The uncertainty regarding the spatial structure or continuity of the subsurface properties can be described with geostatistical sample models. Using these models, one can quantify the prior value given our present state of uncertainty and a set of decision alternatives and outcomes. Because geophysical techniques are a type of remote-sensing data, assuming “perfect” information is not realistic since the techniques usually are indirectly sampling the aquifer properties. Therefore, the focus of this paper is describing how the data reliability (the measure of imperfectness) can be quantified. One of the foremost considerations is the non-unique relationship between geological parameters (which determine groundwater flow) and geophysical observables (what determines the response of the technique). Another is to have the information in a form such that it is useful for spatial decisions. This will often require inversion and interpretation of the geophysical data. Inversion reconstructs an image of the subsurface from the raw geophysical data. How closely the image reproduces the true subsurface structure or property of interest depends on the particular technique’s resolution, depth of investigation and sensor locations. Lastly, in some cases, interpretation of the geophysical data or inversion will be necessary to link the data to the variables that determine the outcome of the decision. Three examples are provided that illustrate different approaches and methods for addressing these challenges. In the examples, time-domain electromagnetic and electrical resistivity techniques are evaluated for their ability to assist in spatial decisions for aquifer management. The examples considered address these three situations: aquifer vulnerability to surface–borne contaminants, managed aquifer recharge and CO₂/brine leakage (related to CO₂ geologic sequestration activities). The methods presented here are transferable to other subsurface sciences and decisions that involve risk. Recent work has been applied to geothermal well-siting using electromagnetic techniques. These approaches can also be applied for oil and mining spatial decisions, and they offer advantages over previous VOI work done for oil applications: they explicitly include the geologic uncertainty modeling and simulate the physics of the considered geophysical technique.     

Dynamis CO2 quality recommendations

In the carbon capture and storage (CCS) chain, transport and storage set different requirements for the composition of the gas stream mainly containing carbon dioxide (CO₂). Currently, there is a lack of standards to define the required quality for CO₂ pipelines. This study investigates and recommends likely maximum allowable concentrations of impurities in the CO₂ for safe transportation in pipelines. The focus is on CO₂ streams from pre-combustion processes. Among the issues addressed are safety and toxicity limits, compression work, hydrate formation, corrosion and free water formation, including the cross-effect of H₂S and H₂O and of H₂O and CH₄.     

Investigations on CO2 storage capacity in saline aquifers—Part 2: Estimation of storage capacity coefficients

Many studies on geological carbon dioxide (CO₂) storage capacity neglect the influence of complex coupled processes which occur during and after the injection of CO₂. Storage capacity is often overestimated since parts of the reservoirs cannot be reached by the CO₂ plume due to gravity segregation and are thus not accessible for storage. This work investigates the effect of reservoir parameters like depth, temperature, absolute and relative permeability, and capillary pressure on the processes during CO₂ injection and thus on estimates of effective storage capacity. The applied statistical characteristics of parameters are based on a large reservoir parameter database. Different measured relative permeability relations are considered. The methodology of estimating storage capacity is discussed. Using numerical 1D and 3D experiments, detailed time-dependent storage capacity estimates are derived. With respect to the concept developed in this work, it is possible to estimate effective CO₂ storage capacity in saline aquifers. It is shown that effective CO₂ mass stored in the reservoir varies by a factor of 20 for the reservoir setups considered. A high influence of the relative permeability relation on storage capacity is shown.     

Corrosion and polarization behavior of carbon steel in MEA-based CO2 capture process

This work reveals levels of corrosion rate and polarization behavior of carbon steel immersed in aqueous solutions of monoethanolamine (MEA) used in the absorption-based carbon dioxide (CO₂) capture process for greenhouse gas reduction from industrial flue gas streams. Such information was obtained from electrochemical-based corrosion experiments under a wide range of the CO₂ capture process conditions. The corrosion of carbon steel was evaluated in respect to process parameters including partial pressure of oxygen (O₂), CO₂ loading in solution, solution velocity, solution temperature, MEA concentration and metal surface condition. Results show that the aqueous MEA solution containing CO₂ provides a favorable condition for the corrosion of carbon steel to proceed. Corrosion rate is increased by all tested process parameters. These parametric effects were explained by the electrochemical kinetic data obtained from polarization curves and by the thermodynamic data obtained from Pourbaix diagram.     

CO2 transportation for carbon capture and storage: Sublimation of carbon dioxide from a dry ice bank

Climate change is being caused by greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO₂). Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is of interest to the scientific community as one way of achieving significant global reductions of atmospheric CO₂ emissions in the medium term. CO₂ would be captured from large stationary sources such as power plants and transported via pipelines under high pressure conditions to underground storage. If a downward leakage from a surface transportation system module occurs, the CO₂ would undergo a large temperature reduction and form a bank of “dry ice” on the ground surface; the sublimation of the gas from this bank represents an area source term for subsequent atmospheric dispersion, with an emission rate dependent on the energy balance at the bank surface. Gaseous CO₂ is denser than air and tends to remain close to the surface; it is an asphyxiant, a cerebral vasodilator and at high concentrations causes rapid circulatory insufficiency leading to coma and death. Hence a subliming bank of dry ice represents safety hazard. A model is presented for evaluating the energy balance and sublimation rate at the surface of a solid frozen CO₂ bank under different environmental conditions. The results suggest that subliming gas behaves as a proper dense gas (i.e. it remains close to the ground surface) only for low ambient wind speeds.     

Scenario simulations of CO2 injection feasibility, plume migration and storage in a saline aquifer, Scania, Sweden

Deep saline aquifers have large capacity for geological CO₂ storage, but are generally not as well characterized as petroleum reservoirs. We here aim at quantifying effects of uncertain hydraulic parameters and uncertain stratigraphy on CO₂ injectivity and migration, and provide a first feasibility study of pilot-scale CO₂ injection into a multilayered saline aquifer system in southwest Scania, Sweden. Four main scenarios are developed, corresponding to different possible interpretations of available site data. Simulation results show that, on the one hand, stratigraphic uncertainty (presence/absence of a thin mudstone/claystone layer above the target storage formation) leads to large differences in predicted CO₂ storage in the target formation at the end of the test (ranging between 11% and 98% of injected CO₂ remaining), whereas other parameter uncertainty (in formation and cap rock permeabilities) has small impact. On the other hand, the latter has large impact on predicted injectivity, on which stratigraphic uncertainty has small impact. Salt precipitation at the border of the target storage formation affects CO₂ injectivity for all considered scenarios and injection rates. At low injection rates, salt is deposited also within the formation, considerably reducing its availability for CO₂ storage.     

Experimental measurement and modeling of the rate of absorption of carbon dioxide by aqueous ammonia

In this work, the rate of absorption of carbon dioxide by aqueous ammonia solvent has been studied by applying a newly built wetted wall column. The absorption rate in aqueous ammonia was measured at temperatures from 279 to 304 K for 1 to 10 wt% aqueous ammonia with loadings varying from 0 to 0.8 mol CO₂/mol NH₃. The absorption rate in 30 wt% aqueous mono-ethanolamine (MEA) was measured at 294 and 314 K with loadings varying from 0 to 0.4 as comparison.It was found that at 304 K, the rate of absorption of carbon dioxide by 10 wt% NH₃ solvent was comparable to the rates for 30 wt% MEA at 294 and 314 K (a typical absorption temperature for this process). The absorption rate using ammonia was however significantly lower at temperatures of 294 K and lower as applied in the Chilled Ammonia Process. However, at these low temperatures, the rate of absorption in ammonia has only a small temperature dependency.The rate of absorption decreases strongly with decreasing ammonia concentrations and increasing CO₂ loadings.The rate of absorption of carbon dioxide by aqueous ammonia solvent was modeled using the measurements of the unloaded solutions and the zwitter-ion mechanism. The model could successfully predict the experimental measurements of the absorption rate of CO₂ in loaded ammonia solutions.     

Public perceptions on the acceptance of geological storage of carbon dioxide and information influencing the acceptance

Public acceptance will be important for the implementation of the geological storage of carbon dioxide (CO₂). The purpose of this study is to evaluate how the general public perceives this storage and the factors crucial for its acceptance. Further, this study attempts to analyze and evaluate what kind of information would influence the public acceptance and how. In order to evaluate them, questionnaire surveys concerning the acceptance of CO₂ geological storage were conducted among Japanese university students. The questionnaire was designed under the assumption that there were five important factors with regard to the acceptance: risk perception, benefit perception, trust, and two perceptions relating to human interference with the environment (one each for CO₂ geological storage and global warming). The questionnaire also investigated the effects of two kinds of information supplied: on natural analogues and on field demonstrations of CO₂ storage. The responses were analyzed through confirmatory factor analysis, and the dynamic changes in the perceptions resulting from the supplied information were analyzed. The analysis results include the following: the five factors explained the acceptance very well (>83%), the benefit perception was primarily important for determining public acceptance, and information on the natural analogues decreased the risk perception greatly.     

Regulatory challenges and managing public perception in planning a geological storage pilot project in Australia

The implementation of geological storage of CO₂ requires not only further research and development but also the demonstration of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology as a viable option. A pilot program is an important first step towards building industry and community confidence in the application of CCS. The Cooperative Research Centre for Greenhouse Gas Technologies (CO2CRC), Australia's leading research organisation in CCS, has initiated a comprehensive research and demonstration program in the Otway Basin in South-West Victoria. As the first project of its kind in Australia, the Otway Basin Pilot Project (OBPP) has faced a number of regulatory and organisational challenges while having to concurrently address public perception. The Otway Basin site with its natural CO₂ accumulations and many depleted natural gas fields offers an appropriate CO₂ storage site to test scientific and regulatory concepts and evaluate public response through social research. The project aims to show that CO₂ can be safely captured, transported and stored deep underground under local conditions, and also monitored and verified. Planning has been ongoing for over a year, baseline studies are underway and the project is targeted to start injection in 2007.     

Monitoring effects of a controlled subsurface carbon dioxide release on vegetation using a hyperspectral imager

A hyperspectral imaging system was used to monitor vegetation during a subsurface controlled release of carbon dioxide (CO₂). From August 3 to 10, 2007, 0.3 tons CO₂/day were released through a 70 m horizontal pipe located at a nominal depth of 1.8 m below the surface. Hyperspectral images of alfalfa plants were collected during the controlled release and used along with classification tree analysis to study changes in the reflectance spectra as a function of perpendicular distance from the horizontal pipe. Changes in the reflectance spectra near the red edge (650–750 nm) were observed over the course of the controlled release experiment for plants within a perpendicular distance of 1 m of the release pipe. These results indicate monitoring vegetation over a carbon sequestration site has the potential to allow monitoring of the integrity of the CO₂ storage.     

Time-lapse carbon dioxide monitoring with pulsed neutron logging

Elevated levels of CO₂ in the atmosphere have been linked to the rise in land and sea temperature [Climate Change, 2001. In: Houghton, J.T., Ding, Y., Griggs, D.J., Noguer, M., van der Linden, P.J., Xiaosu, D. (Eds.), The Scientific Basis Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, UK, p. 944]. To demonstrate geological carbon sequestration as a mitigation technique, a carbon dioxide injection experiment was conducted in East Texas. The target – Frio formation – is a highly porous, permeable and unconsolidated sandstone. The specific interval is the Frio C sand, which originally was saturated with saline formation water. At the injection location, the Frio C sand dips 18° to the south. To monitor the injected CO₂ spreading in the formation, an old well from 1956 drilled into the deeper Yegua formation was selected as the observation well. The injection well was drilled at a distance of 100 ft downdip from the monitoring well. Several borehole measurement methods were available to monitor the CO₂ injection, but the most suitable technology was thought to be the pulsed neutron logging. This logging is used widely in cased hole, and the measured macroscopic thermal absorption cross-section (Σ) is sensitive to CO₂ saturation in high porosity saline water environments. Several log examples are given demonstrating successful the monitoring of the CO₂ plume moving through the two boreholes and the resulting saturation changes.     

Carbon flows and carbon use in the German anthroposphere: An inventory

Today, global climate change is one of the most urgent environmental problems. The atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) has to be stabilised by significant reductions of CO₂ emissions in the next decades to keep the expected temperature rise within tolerable borders. Efforts exceeding the implemented measures to reduce CO₂ emissions in Germany are desirable. An important pre-condition for such measures is a scientific-based inventory of the sources, sinks, and use of carbon.In this paper, we present CarboMoG, i.e. Carbon Flow Model of Germany. CarboMoG is a carbon flow model covering carbon flows, carbon sources and sinks in Germany and the German anthroposphere, showing concurrent energy and non-energy use of carbon sources.The model consists of seven modules in German anthroposphere following the German classification of economic sectors. Carbon flows to and from atmosphere and lithosphere as well as imports and exports were included into the model. The model comprises roughly 220 material flows determined based on material flow procedures for the base year 2000.Main sources of carbon are fossil energy carriers from lithosphere and uptake of CO₂ by crops (52% resp. 48% of all carbon sources). The model calculations show that import of energy carriers dominates total carbon import to Germany (82%). Total non-energy use of carbon in Germany is significantly higher than energy use (386 Mt C and 230 Mt C, resp.). Carbon throughput of Industry is greatest (about 224 Mt C input), followed by Energy (about 129 Mt C input). Agriculture and Forestry & Industry show the highest figure for non-energy use of carbon, energy use of carbon is largest in the Energy sector. Emissions of CO₂ to atmosphere account for 94% of all carbon flows to sinks in Germany. Carbon accumulates in German anthroposphere 5 Mt C in 2000.     

An engineering-economic model of pipeline transport of CO2 with application to carbon capture and storage

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) involves the capture of CO₂ at a large industrial facility, such as a power plant, and its transport to a geological (or other) storage site where CO₂ is sequestered. Previous work has identified pipeline transport of liquid CO₂ as the most economical method of transport for large volumes of CO₂. However, there is little published work on the economics of CO₂ pipeline transport. The objective of this paper is to estimate total cost and the cost per tonne of transporting varying amounts of CO₂ over a range of distances for different regions of the continental United States. An engineering-economic model of pipeline CO₂ transport is developed for this purpose. The model incorporates a probabilistic analysis capability that can be used to quantify the sensitivity of transport cost to variability and uncertainty in the model input parameters. The results of a case study show a pipeline cost of US$ 1.16 per tonne of CO₂ transported for a 100 km pipeline constructed in the Midwest handling 5 million tonnes of CO₂ per year (the approximate output of an 800 MW coal-fired power plant with carbon capture). For the same set of assumptions, the cost of transport is US$ 0.39 per tonne lower in the Central US and US$ 0.20 per tonne higher in the Northeast US. Costs are sensitive to the design capacity of the pipeline and the pipeline length. For example, decreasing the design capacity of the Midwest US pipeline to 2 million tonnes per year increases the cost to US$ 2.23 per tonne of CO₂ for a 100 km pipeline, and US$ 4.06 per tonne CO₂ for a 200 km pipeline. An illustrative probabilistic analysis assigns uncertainty distributions to the pipeline capacity factor, pipeline inlet pressure, capital recovery factor, annual O&M cost, and escalation factors for capital cost components. The result indicates a 90% probability that the cost per tonne of CO₂ is between US$ 1.03 and US$ 2.63 per tonne of CO₂ transported in the Midwest US. In this case, the transport cost is shown to be most sensitive to the pipeline capacity factor and the capital recovery factor. The analytical model elaborated in this paper can be used to estimate pipeline costs for a broad range of potential CCS projects. It can also be used in conjunction with models producing more detailed estimates for specific projects, which requires substantially more information on site-specific factors affecting pipeline routing.     

Coalbed methane reservoir data and simulator parameter uncertainty modelling for CO2 storage performance assessment

Laboratory studies and a number of field pilots have demonstrated that CO₂ injection into coal seams has the potential to enhance coalbed methane (CBM) recovery with the added advantage that most of the injected CO₂ can be stored permanently in coal. The concept of storing CO₂ in geologic formations as a safe and effective greenhouse gas mitigation option requires public and regulatory acceptance. In this context it is important to develop a good understanding of the reservoir performance, uncertainties and the risks that are associated with geological storage. The paper presented refers to the sources of uncertainty involved in CO₂ storage performance assessment in coalbed methane reservoirs and demonstrates their significance using extensive digital well log data representing the Manville coals in Alberta, Canada. The spatial variability of the reservoir properties was captured through geostatistical analysis, and sequential Gaussian simulations of these provided multiple realisations for the reservoir simulator inputs. A number of CO₂ injection scenarios with variable matrix swelling coefficients were evaluated using a 2D reservoir model and spatially distributed realisations of total net thickness and permeability.     

Numerical investigation concerning the impact of CO2 geologic storage on regional groundwater flow

Large-scale storage of carbon dioxide in saline aquifers may cause considerable pressure perturbation and brine migration in deep rock formations, which may have a significant influence on the regional groundwater system. With the help of parallel computing techniques, we conducted a comprehensive, large-scale numerical simulation of CO₂ geologic storage that predicts not only CO₂ migration, but also its impact on regional groundwater flow. As a case study, a hypothetical industrial-scale CO₂ injection in Tokyo Bay, which is surrounded by the most heavily industrialized area in Japan, was considered, and the impact of CO₂ injection on near-surface aquifers was investigated, assuming relatively high seal-layer permeability (higher than 10 microdarcy). A regional hydrogeological model with an area of about 60 km × 70 km around Tokyo Bay was discretized into about 10 million gridblocks. To solve the high-resolution model efficiently, we used a parallelized multiphase flow simulator TOUGH2-MP/ECO2N on a world-class high performance supercomputer in Japan, the Earth Simulator. In this simulation, CO₂ was injected into a storage aquifer at about 1 km depth under Tokyo Bay from 10 wells, at a total rate of 10 million tons/year for 100 years. Through the model, we can examine regional groundwater pressure buildup and groundwater migration to the land surface. The results suggest that even if containment of CO₂ plume is ensured, pressure buildup on the order of a few bars can occur in the shallow confined aquifers over extensive regions, including urban inlands.     

Predicting δCDIC dynamics in CCS: A scheme based on a review of inorganic carbon chemistry under elevated pressures and temperatures

Stable carbon isotopes are important tools to assess potential storage sites for CO₂, as they allow the quantification of ionic trapping via isotope mass balances. In deep geological formations high p/T conditions need to be considered, because CO₂ dissolution, equilibrium constants and isotope fractionation of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) depend on temperature, pressure and solute composition. After reviewing different approaches to account for these dependencies, an expanded scheme is presented for speciation and carbon isotope fractionation of DIC and dissolution of CaCO₃ for pCO₂ up to 100 bar, pH down to 3 and temperatures of up to 200 °C. The scheme evaluates the influence of respective parameters on isotope ratios during CO₂ sequestration. The pCO₂ and pH are the dominant controlling factors in the DIC/δ¹³C/pH system. The fugacity of CO₂ has major impact on DIC concentrations at temperatures below 100 °C at high pCO₂. Temperature dependency of activities and equilibrium dominates at temperatures above 100 °C. Isotope ratios of DIC are expected to be about 1–2‰ more depleted in ¹³C compared to the free CO₂ at pCO₂ values above 10 bar. This depletion is controlled by carbon isotope fractionation between CO₂ and H₂CO₃* which is the dominant species of DIC at the resulting pH below 5.