The Strategic Impact of Adaptation in a Transboundary Pollution Dynamic Game

This work studies the strategic impact of a region’s investment in adaptation measures on the equilibrium outcomes of a transboundary pollution dynamic game played in finite horizon. We incorporate adaptation as a region-specific capital stock that decreases local damages and study the feedback (subgame perfect) equilibrium of the non-cooperative game between two regions. In order to discern the impact of adaptation, we compare the equilibrium solutions of three scenarios, which differ in the regions’ ability to invest in adaptation measures. The results show that investing in adaptation gives regions an incentive to increase their emissions, which causes an inverse strategic response in the other region. The anticipation of a rise in pollution makes the other region respond by cutting its emissions and investing more in adaptation. The equilibrium trajectories of the stocks of pollution and adaptation capital follow the highest path over time when both regions adapt. When there is an asymmetry between regions in their adaptation capabilities, the region that does not (or cannot) adapt becomes worse off due to lower emissions and higher damages, while the adapting region finishes the game better off than the no-adaptation case.     

Optimal Control Models and Elicitation of Attitudes towards Climate Damages

This paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through a family of stochastic optimal control models (RESPONSE): cost-efficiency for a given temperature ceiling; cost-benefit analysis with a pure preference for current climate regime and full cost-benefit analysis. The choice of a given proxy of climate change risks is actually more than a technical option. It is essentially motivated by the degree of distrust regarding the legitimacy of an assessment of climate damages and the possibility of providing in due time reliable and non controversial estimates. Our results demonstrate that (a) for early decades abatement, the difference between various decision-making frameworks appears to matter less than the difference between stochastic and non stochastic approach given the cascade of uncertainty from emissions to damages; (b) in a stochastic approach, the possibility of non-catastrophic singularities in the damage function is sufficient to significantly increase earlier optimal abatements; (c) a window of opportunity for action exists up to 2040: abatements further delayed may induce significant regret in case of bad news about climate response or singularities in damages.     

Anticipating Climate Threshold Damages

Several integrated assessment studies have concluded that future learning about the uncertainties involved in climate change has a considerable effect on welfare but only a small effect on optimal short-term emissions. In other words, learning is important but anticipation of learning is not. We confirm this result in the integrated assessment model “model of investment and technological development” for learning about climate sensitivity and climate damages. If learning about an irreversible threshold is included, though, we show that anticipation can become crucial both in terms of necessary adjustments of pre-learning emissions and resulting welfare gains. We specify conditions on the time of learning and the threshold characteristic, for which this is the case. They can be summarized as a narrow “anticipation window.”     

Capacity utilization and investment in environmental quality

This paper characterizes the optimal use of productive capacity and optimal investment in environmental quality when the latter has a positive impact on the production process. For the case of a single country, we find conditions under which capital should or should not be fully utilized, and investment in environmental quality should be positive or zero. We then extend the model to the case of two countries playing a non-cooperative dynamic game. The Nash equilibrium turns out to be a dominant-strategy equilibrium. Since this equilibrium is not Pareto efficient, we show how one country may bribe the other country to achieve a better outcome, for example, by refraining from full utilization of capacity. Under certain conditions, the optimal solution requires that a constant fraction of one country's income be used to bribe the other country to scale down its production.     

Optimisation of reduction of global CO2 emission based on a simple model of the carbon cycle

A simple model has been designed to describe the interaction of climate and biosphere. Carbon dioxide, understood as a major emitted gas, leads to a change of global climate. Economic interpretation of the model is based on the maximisation of the global CO₂ cumulative emissions. The two most important profiles of emission have been obtained: optimal and multi-exponential suboptimal profiles, each displaying different characteristics. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

“Emission game”: some applications of the theory of games to the problem of CO2 emission

If there are no doubts that we must reduce the total emission of carbon dioxide, then the problem of how much different countries should be allowed to contribute to this amount remains a serious one. We suggest this problem to be considered as a non-antagonistic game (in Germeier's sense). A game of this kind is called an “emission game”. Suppose that there are n independent actors (countries or regions), each of them releasing a certain amount of CO₂ per year (in carbon units) into the atmosphere, and that the emission would be reduced by each actor. Each actor has his own aim: to minimise the loss in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) caused by the reduction of emissions. On the other hand, taking into account that it is impossible to estimate more or less precisely the impact of the climate change on GDP for each country today, a common strategy will be to reduce the climate change. Since one of the main leading factors in global warming is the greenhouse effect, then the common aim will be to reduce the sum of emissions. This is a typical conflict situation. How to resolve it? We can weigh the “egoistic” and “altruistic” criteria for each actor introducing the so-called “coefficients of egoism”. This coefficient is very large, if the actor uses a very egoistic strategy, and conversely, if the actor is a “super-altruist”, then the corresponding coefficient is very small. Using these coefficients we get the general solution of the game in a form of some Pareto's equilibrium. The solution is stable and efficient.     

Modelling the Optimal Strategies of Fertiliser Application Using the Game-Theoretic Approach

This paper is a case study which describes the application of game-theoretic approach in resource management with specific emphasis on developing optimal strategies of phosphorus applications for soil fertilisation. The approach adopted allows resource managers to consider not only competitive strategies, which were treated as the Nash equilibrium game solutions, but also strategies which imply cooperation between farmers. These strategies were modelled as the cooperative Pareto optima of the game. The objective function of the game has been developed in order to reflect both economic advantages of phosphorus applications and the environmental losses associated with these applications expressed as dollar values. The paper presents algorithms for finding competitive and cooperative solutions of the game for the particular case when no time scheduling is included in the game parametrisation. The results obtained in the paper showed that the cooperative solutions lead to much lesser environmental impacts than that in the case of non-cooperative strategies.     

INASUD project findings on integrated assessment of climate policies

This communication summarizes the main findings of INASUD, an European-wide research project on integrated assessment of climate policies. The project aimed at improving the framing of climate policy analysis through the parallel use of various existing integrated assessment models. It provides a comprehensive examination of the link between uncertainty regarding damages and inertia in economic systems. Results show that the Kyoto targets and timing are consistent with the precautionary principle but offers little insurance for longer-term climate protection. Flexibility mechanisms offer potentials for cooperation with developing countries, and are necessary to tap the environmental and economic benefits of joint carbon and sulfur emissions abatement.     

Aircraft Emissions: A Comparison of Methodologies Based on Different Data Availability

The impact of air traffic on the global atmosphere is characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, concerning both the physico-chemical phenomena involved and the extent of the forcing due to anthropogenic emissions. The different effects of these emissions (e.g. on climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, acidification, tropospheric ozone formation) are dealt with by different international bodies and conventions (e.g. IPCC, EMEP. . .) which are trying to define a standard methodology allowing countries to evaluate their contributions to global aircraft emissions and to report these figures in a standardised way. The paper compares different methodologies proposed by the joint EMEP/CORINAIR 'Atmospheric Emission Inventory Guidebook' for estimating aircraft emissions. Adjustments to these methodologies have been proposed, in order to integrate some additional data such as the total amount of flight hours per aircraft type or fuel consumption per trip. In case detailed information is not available, we recommend the use of a VERY SIMPLE methodology which may yield acceptable results, provided that every country makes adequate assumptions on the average aircraft type.     

The Nexus Between CO2 Emissions and Genetically Modified Crops: a Perspective from Order Theory

Genetically modified crops (GMCs) and climate change have been two ecological issues intensely debated over the years. The search for global solutions to the effects of climate change on agriculture has led to the proposal of GMCs as a tool to reduce the environmental impact of agricultural practices and to improve their efficiency of production. At least 27 countries, all over the world, have cultivated GMCs. The purpose of the present paper is to provide insights about the possible linkages between the cultivated areas and the CO₂ emissions in these countries. In addition, the study intends to establish meaningful relationships between attributes related to the particular socio-economic situations and the environmental impacts of GMCs. Some examples are the connection between acreages of GMCs and the status of each country with respect to the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety, as well as their classification according to the mean income per capita and their CO₂ emissions. In order to give the mathematical support to these links, the methodology known as Order Theory was employed. The results show that Paraguay, India, Burkina Faso, Brazil and Pakistan could be the best contributors to the mitigation of the climate change by the reduction of their CO₂ emission levels through GMCs.

     

Meta-Modeling to Assess the Possible Future of Paris Agreement

In the meta-modeling approach, one builds a numerically tractable dynamic optimization or game model in which the parameters are identified through statistical emulation of a detailed large scale numerical simulation model. In this paper, we show how this approach can be used to assess the economic impacts of possible climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement. One indicates why it is appropriate to assume that an international carbon market, with emission rights given to different groups of countries will exist. One discusses the approach to evaluate correctly abatement costs and welfare losses incurred by different groups of countries when implementing climate policies. Finally, using a recently proposed meta-model of game with a coupled constraint on a cumulative CO₂ emissions budget, we assess several new scenarios for possible fair burden sharing in climate policies compatible with the Paris Agreement.     

Dynamical Allocation Method of Emission Rights of Pollutants by Viability Constraints Under Tychastic Uncertainty

This study proposes a method of dynamic decentralization by constraints and its associated software. It can be used to allocate pollutant emissions rights among the different polluters such that they achieve both given global and local emission thresholds not to be transgressed. Knowing the maximum growth rates of polluting emissions of each polluter in the worst case, this method provides the rule of a dynamic allocation of pollutant emissions rights as well as the required initial emissions of each polluters assuring that, whatever the growth rates of the emissions below the maximum growth rates, the resulting emissions will be, both globally and locally, under their thresholds. These guaranteed initial emissions supply each polluter with a measure of risk insurance. This problem, formulated as a “tychastic” regulated system with viability constraints, is solved with mathematical and algorithmic tools of viability theory and numerical results obtained by a dedicated software are presented.     

Evaluating Uncertain CO2 Abatement over the Very Long Term

Climate change research with the economic methodology of cost–benefit analysis is challenging because of valuation and ethical issues associated with the long delays between CO₂ emissions and much of their potential damages, typically of several centuries. The large uncertainties with which climate change impacts are known today and the possibly temporary nature of some envisaged CO₂ abatement options exacerbate this challenge. For example, potential leakage of CO₂ from geological reservoirs, after this greenhouse gas has been stored artificially underground for climate control reasons, requires an analysis in which the uncertain climatic consequences of leakage are valued over many centuries. We here present a discussion of some of the relevant questions in this context and provide calculations with the top–down energy-environment-economy model DEMETER. Given the long-term features of the climate change conundrum as well as of technologies that can contribute to its solution, we considered it necessary extending DEMETER to cover a period from today until the year?3000, a time span so far hardly investigated with integrated assessment models of climate change.     

Assessing the effects of noise abatement measures on health risks: A case study in Istanbul

In recent decades, noise pollution caused by industrialization and increased motorization has become a major concern around the world because of its adverse effects on human well-being. Therefore, transportation agencies have been implementing noise abatement measures in order to reduce road traffic noise. However, limited attention is given to noise in environmental assessment of road transportation systems. This paper presents a framework for a health impact assessment model for road transportation noise emissions. The model allows noise impacts to be addressed with the health effects of air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions from road transportation. The health damages assessed in the model include annoyance, sleep disturbance, and cardiovascular disease in terms of acute myocardial infarction. The model was applied in a case study in Istanbul in order to evaluate the change in health risks from the implementation of noise abatement strategies. The noise abatement strategies evaluated include altering pavement surfaces in order to absorb noise and introducing speed limits. It was shown that significant improvements in health risks can be achieved using open graded pavement surfaces and introducing speed limits on highways.     

Comparing impacts across climate models

In this paper we combine a climate-forecasting model, COSMIC, with a global impact model, GIM, to compare the market impacts of climate change projected by 14 general circulation models. Given a specific date (2100), carbon dioxide concentration (612 ppmv), and global temperature sensitivity (2.5°C), predicted impacts to economies are calculated using climate-response functions from Experimental and Cross-sectional evidence. The Cross-sectional impact model predicts small global benefits across all climate models, whereas the Experimental impact model predicts a range from small benefits to small damages. High-latitude countries are less sensitive to temperature increases than low-latitude countries because they are currently cool. Uniform global temperature changes overestimate global damages because they underestimate the benefits in polar regions and overestimate the damages in tropical regions compared to the GCM predictions.     

On the indiscriminate use of imported emission factors in environmental impact assessment: A case study in Chile

Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) aims to determine if the environmental effect of an activity or project complies with standards and regulations. A primary component of the environment to evaluate is air and the effect that various activities can have on its quality. To this end, emission factors (EFs), which are empirical coefficients or mathematical relationships, are normally used. The present research critically analyzes the implications and consequences of using imported EFs in environmental impact studies (EISs), taking as case of study the situation in Chile. Among the main results, the widespread use of EFs in EISs in the country and the lack of assessments of their actual applicability stand out. In addition, the official guidelines related to emissions estimation that are used for EIA in the country mostly include EFs derived elsewhere, without considering the recommendations or restrictions that the original sources indicate for their use. Finally, the broad use of default values defined for the Metropolitan Region in Central Chile, is highly questionable for a country that extends north-south along more than 35° of latitude, with wide variability in climate, traffic conditions, population, soil types, etc. Finally, it is very likely that situations similar to those observed in the present work occurs in other countries with young environmental impact assessment systems, and therefore, that the results herein presented should be of general interest and relevance.     

The long time scales of the climate–economy feedback and the climatic cost of growth

This paper is based on the perception that the inertia of climate and socio-economic systems are key parameters in the climate change issue. In a first part, it develops and implements a new approach based on a simple integrated model with a particular focus on an innovative transient impact and adaptation modeling. In a second part, a climate–economy feedback is defined and characterized. The following results were found. 1) It has a long characteristic time, which lies between 50 and 100 years depending on the hypotheses; this time scale is long when compared to the system's other time scales, and the feedback cannot act as a natural damping process of climate change. 2) Mitigation has to be anticipated since the feedback of an emission reduction on the economy can be significant only after a 20-year delay and is really efficient only after at least 50 years. 3) Even discounted, production changes due to an action on emissions are significant over more than one century. 4) The methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which neglects the feedback from impacts to emissions, is acceptable up to 2100, whatever is the level of impacts. This analysis allows also to define a climatic cost of growth as the additional climate change damages due to the additional emissions linked to economic growth.

Scientist–stakeholder collaboration in integrated assessment of climate change: lessons from a case study of Northwest Canada

Research on the climate change issue has generally focused on uncertainties in climate projections and calculation of mitigation costs. Most integrated assessment (IA) efforts have been directed at the mitigation component. The problem of climate change, however, is really about the potential effects on ecosystems, resources, and societies that depend on them. As illustrated by experiences from the Mackenzie Basin Impact Study, a case study from Northwest Canada, these effects will be unique to each region and country. Many of these will be indirect, including region specific thresholds, vulnerabilities and adaptations which may not be included in sectoral analyses. Science can define some of the “What if” aspects of climate change, but the regional “So what” and “What should be done” questions are largely unanswered and subject to intense debate in various political fora. IA needs to recognize the multiobjective and multistakeholder aspects of vulnerabilities, risks, and potential responses to climate change. IA could provide a more holistic analysis of the regional impacts dimension of climate change by including both modeling and non‐modeling approaches, and incorporating institutional and stakeholder issues that do not readily lend themselves to economic analyses.     

Examining the uncertainty of carbon emission changes: A systematic approach based on peak simulation and resilience assessment

Efforts to achieve carbon peak is one of the Chinese government's commitments, but the diversity of future development paths leads to the uncertainty of carbon emissions. Based on the carbon peak simulation, this study develops a framework to assess the carbon emission uncertainty, aiming to explore the potential low-carbon paths. The STIRPAT model is firstly introduced to explore the influence of population, economic and technology factors on carbon emissions, which is followed by emission peaks simulation. The resilience theory is then introduced to define the concept of low-carbon resilience (LCR), which refers to the ability to maintain a low level of carbon emissions. The uncertainty of carbon emission changes between different scenarios is identified by considering peaking time, cumulative increase and mitigation process. This study taking 10 Chinese coastal provinces as an example, and results show that all provinces can achieve the target of carbon emission peak in low-emissions scenario, the cumulative growth of carbon emissions is low and can be mitigated over a relatively short term, showing a strong LCR. In high-emissions scenario, Liaoning, Tianjin, Fujian and Guangxi may not have a peak before 2050, the uncertainty of carbon emission changes is relatively high, while Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanghai and Guangdong show relatively low uncertainty for the clear peaking time. The study also designs intermediate scenario to reduce the uncertainty of carbon emission changes to provide reference for each province's emission reduction path. These findings help to understand carbon uncertainty to reduce the risk of increasing cumulative emissions under the scenario of only focusing on peaking times, and provide a basis for future carbon resilience and sustainable emission reduction policies.     

The carbon footprint of a knowledge organization and emission scenarios for a post-COVID-19 world

The looming climate crisis requires an immediate response, in which organizations, as major contributors, should play a central role. However, these organizations need appropriate tools to measure and mitigate their climate impacts. One commonly applied method is carbon footprint analysis. Carbon footprint analyses have been conducted for various types of organizations, but knowledge organizations, such as universities and research institutes, have received far less attention, because their carbon footprint is often less visible and can be easily underestimated. This study is based on the carbon footprint analysis of one multinational knowledge organization. This analysis then helped identify the major sources of climate impacts in other such knowledge organizations. These are mainly indirect emissions (Scope 3) and to a large extent (79%) travel-related emissions. Based on these findings, three scenarios for a post-COVID-19 world were developed and analyzed. The results from the first two scenarios showed that despite a reduction in business travel and employees working from home, Scope 3 and travel-related emissions would remain the largest contributor. Only in the unlikely case of the third, non-recovery scenario did the share of travel-related emissions drop, turning heating into the largest contributor. In addition to measuring the carbon footprint, the study discusses potential mitigation strategies knowledge organizations could apply to reduce their carbon footprint. The focus is on how to avoid and reduce emissions, but new forms of carbon offsetting are also addressed. Based on the findings, a mitigation policy framework and recommendations for further research are proposed.