论世界银行衡量可持续发展的最新指标体系

本文综述了近年来衡量可持续发展的各类指标体系;对世界银行发布的最新体系,进行了全面的评论,并且由此归纳出该体系的五项优点和两项缺陷。尤其对于新指标体系应用“储蓄率”的消长,去动态地监测可持续发展的过程,给予了高度的评价。此外,本文还对有关的国家排序结果做了相应的对比分析。     

The Role of Institutions and Policy in Enhancing Sustainable Development and Conserving Natural Capital

The use and management of natural capital is critical in all nations, but especially so in poor nations. The role of institutions – chiefly, property rights and pricing systems for natural resources – is pivotal in achieving growth and improved distribution of income and wealth, in understanding environmental degradation, and in seeking improved policy. Particularly useful criteria and indicators of sustainable development relate to `green' output and productivity measures in which the depreciation of natural capital is being considered. Special management problems exist for `critical' components of natural capital to which variants of the precautionary principle must be applied to ensure that our heirs receive an undiminished patrimony.     

Investigating the sensitivity of household food security to agriculture-related shocks and the implication of social and natural capital

This paper examines the impact of agriculture-related shocks on consumption patterns of rural farming households using 3 years of data from South Africa. We make two key observations. First, agriculture-related shocks reduce households’ consumption. Second, natural resources and informal social capital somewhat counteract this reduction and sustain dietary requirements. In general, our findings suggest the promotion of informal social capital and natural resources as they are cheaper and more accessible coping strategies, in comparison to, for example, insurance, which remains unaffordable in most rural parts of sub-Saharan Africa. However, a lingering concern centres on the sustainability of these less conventional adaptation strategies.     

中国农村居民煤炭消费及影响因素研究

农村居民煤炭消费牵涉到农村居民生活方式与能源转型、北方供暖清洁化改革、大气污染治理等重大改革实践,如何准确理解和研判现有的农村居民煤炭消费现状,并进而识别出科学、有效的减煤措施,已成为改善农村居民能源结构、治理农村地区煤炭消费、改善北方地区大气质量的重要手段之一。然而,现有对农村居民煤炭消费的统计数据可能存在一定低估,基础性数据的匮乏与不足严重阻碍了科学研究和公共决策。为了准确了解我国农村居民煤炭消费的现状、特征与空间分布,本文采用第三次中国家庭能源消费调查数据对农村居民的煤炭消费进行了核算,并针对户均煤炭消费量和地区农村居民煤炭消费总量进行了比较,在此基础上还考察了气候差异、资源禀赋、收入水平等因素对农村居民煤炭需求的影响。研究结果表明,2014年中国农村居民生活用煤炭消费总量为6 585.7万tce,平均每户煤炭消费量为347.2 kgce,其中供暖用煤占比96.9%,烹饪用煤占比3.1%。各省的户均煤炭消费和煤炭消费总量呈现显著的空间差异,其中:东北、西部地区农村居民户均煤炭消费量显著高于其他地区,北京及周边的河北、山东、山西、内蒙、辽宁和天津7个省、市的农村居民共消费了全国55%的农村生活用煤,其中北京周边的河北、山东和山西三省农村居民消费了全国46.6%的农村煤炭消费。地区煤炭资源禀赋、农村居民住房面积与供暖用煤需求显著正相关,而冬季户外温度、居民收入水平同煤炭需求之间关系不显著。未来政府应通过改善农村居民民生需求、推动农村能源转型、提高农村能源统计水平等途径来有效治理农村散煤消费。     

生计资本与生计策略关系研究——以张掖市甘州区为例

农民的生计安全与质量问题是当今中国农村的核心问题,稳定的生计可以使有关的政策协调发展、消除贫困并可持续地利用资源.本文采用可持续生计框架为研究基础,农户的生计资产为框架核心,通过建立可持续生计评价指标体系,对农户的生计资产状况和由此决定的资产配置方式--生计策略及二者之间的关系进行初步的研究探讨.结果表明:对张掖市甘州区农户而盲,物质资本的值最高(其值为0.609),人力资本的数值相对较高(其值为0.516),社会资本次之(其值为0.354),金融资本和自然资本的数值相对较低(其值分别为0.286和0.241).在其他条件不变的情况下,自然资本每增加一个单位,将引起农户选择以非农为主与以农业为主生计策略的发生比缩小0.119倍;当其他解释变量不变时,金融资本每增加一个单位,将引起农户选择以非农为主与以农业为主生计策略的发生比扩大9.698倍.所以要想实现农户生计多样化,加强农户抵御风险的能力,政府就必须加强对其资金、技术等方面的支持,使其有能力和资本储备从农业生产转向二、三产业,从而促使农户生计水平得以提高.     

The disappearing sustainability triangle: community level considerations

This article challenges the application of the sustainability triangle to conceptualise sustainable development by looking at how weak sustainability can be obtained via the reinforcing increase in social capital and natural capital. Sustainable development is often visualised as a triangle consisting of social, environmental, and economic aspects. Would it be possible to conceive a flattened system, with diminishing economic resources or without refilling financial resources? The possibility involves mutual reinforcement between social capital and natural capital. The consideration of the diminishing economic dimension relates to the concept of development without economic growth, such as degrowth, zero-growth, and sustainable growth, that has been revived in the face of the recent economic crisis. Several countries have imposed extreme budget cuts in development collaboration and in other government expenditures. When the economic resource is not at a satisfactory level, can we rely on the reinforcement between social and environmental aspects for sustainability? Although it is not new to acknowledge the contribution of social capital to environmental conservation, research has long ignored the reinforcing relationship between environmental and social dimensions. This article provides a prototype model to demonstrate how social capital and natural capital can reinforce each other. The prototype is studied and verified at the community level using a comparative method. This article concludes with principles and practices that may encourage sustainability with merely the reinforcement between social capital and natural capital.     

劳动节约型技术进步下的就业转移

在人均GDP可比水平下,我国农业就业份额远高于同一发展阶段的日本、韩国、台湾省,年均农业就业份额下降速度及人均GDP每增长1 000 GK$农业就业份额下降速度均落后于日本、韩国和台湾省。这表明我国农业就业非农化转移相当缓慢,大大滞后于经济发展。延续发展经济学假设,结合新古典理论分析,表明影响农业就业转移的因素包括:资本增长率、创新强度、技术进步的劳动节约偏向和边际劳动产出递减的倾向。利用我国非农产业数据进行实证检验,表明技术进步的劳动节约偏向是就业转移滞后的深层次原因。     

中国城乡一体化水平的省区分异

推进形成城乡经济社会发展一体化新格局,是全面建设小康社会、实现城乡社会经济发展方式转型的重要举措。本文采用城乡发展差异系数、城乡一体化水平指数等指标,分析了中国城乡一体化水平的省区差异,揭示了这种地域分异所产生的影响因素,进一步探讨推进全国城乡一体化新格局形成的科学机制。研究表明,中国城乡发展无论是东部相对发达省区,还是西部欠发展省区,差异显著,呈现不均衡特点;城乡一体化水平受自然环境、经济社会发展综合实力和公共政策等因素影响明显;加快建构城乡一体化发展新格局,需要进一步纠正"城市偏向"的发展观,加大城乡统筹力度,推进城乡基本公共服务均等化进程,并根据变化趋势,调整公共政策的着力点,提升城乡一体化发展的区域协调性。     

国家战略经济区风险和对策

近2年国家批准了20个国家发展战略经济区.在这些地区,随各自自然环境的变化其自然灾害风险有所不同.该文基于对国家战略发展区域的历史(1949-2009年)灾情调查统计,构建了以人均损失、地均损失、损失占GDP的比重及人均GDP、地均GDP等5个指标为主的自然灾害风险评价体系.研究结果表明:天津市滨海新区、上海浦东新区为低度风险区;深圳市综合配套改革试验区、珠江三角洲地区、长江三角洲地区、辽宁沿海经济带、江苏沿海地区、沈阳经济区、武汉城市圈、黄河三角洲高效生态经济区为中度风险区;关中-天水经济区、海峡西岸经济区、广西北部湾、中部地区、长吉图开发开放先导区、海南国际旅游岛综合试验区为较高度风险区;成渝统筹城乡发展综合配套改革试验区、甘肃省、长株潭城市群、鄱阳湖生态经济区为高度风险区.该文针对各区域自然灾害风险特点提出了发展对策.     

乡镇工业污染防治战略初探

本文通过对乡镇工业经济发展现状及其环境问题的评价分析,提出乡镇工业环境管理应按本地自然条件、经济发展水平和乡镇企业的特点,实施分区域、按行业、有重点地进行管理的防治战略。并建议我国环境管理在以城市和大工业为重点的同时,及早将乡镇工业污染防治工作放在战略高度加以重视,切实加强乡镇工业环境管理。     

National and regional determinants of tropical deforestation in Colombia

Global tropical deforestation continues to occur at high rates despite political attention. National-level forest baselines are being established all over the world to guide the implementation of several policy mechanisms. However, identifying the direct and indirect drivers of deforestation and understanding the complexity of their interlinkages are often difficult. We first analyzed deforestation between 1990 and 2005 at the national level and found an annual deforestation rate of 0.62 %. Next, we performed separate analyses for four natural regions in Colombia and found annual deforestation rates between 0.42 and 1.92 %. Using general linear models, we identified several direct causes and underlying factors influencing deforestation at the national level: rural population density, cattle, protected areas, and slope. Significant differences in deforestation rates and causes were found across regions. In the Caribbean region, drivers of loss are urban population, unsatisfied basic needs, slope, and precipitation and four land use variables (illicit crops, pastures, cattle, and fires). In the Orinoco region, crops are the main driver of forest loss, and in the Amazonian region, deforestation is primarily due to fires related to the colonization front. Policy mechanisms will have to take into account regional patterns to successfully balance development and forest preservation in Colombia.     

Sustainable Development and Strategic Thinking

From an economic point of view, the industrial economy is efficient to overcome situations of a scarcity of goods. From a technological point of view, the resource efficiency of the manufacturing processes of the industrial economy has been permanently improved during the last 200 years. In addition, cleaner processes have been developed. However, from an ecologic point of view, an increasing world population with increasing consumption has produced a ＂global footprint＂ which approaches the carrying capacity of the planet. A circular economy and its high-value spin-offs-a lake economy and a performance or functional service economy-can fulfil customers＇ needs with considerably less resource consumption, less environmental impairment in production and considerably less end-of-life product waste, especially in situations of affluence, when a considerable stock of physical goods and infrastructures exists. Also, in situations of a scarcity of natural resources, both energy and materials, often characterised by rapidly rising resource prices, the economic actors of a circular economy have a high competitive advantage over the actors of the industrial economy, due to much lower procurement costs for materials and energy. From a social point of view, a circular economy increases the number of skilled jobs in regional enterprises. However, the shift from a linear manufacturing economy to a circular or service economy means a change in economic thinking from flow （throughput） management to stock （asset） management： in a manufacturing economy with largely unsaturated markets, total wealth increases through accumulation as resource throughput （flow） is transformed into a higher stock of goods of better quality （but in a manufacturing economy with largely saturated markets, wealth represented by the stock of goods will no longer increase）; in a circular or service economy, total wealth increases through a smart management of existing physical assets （stock） that are adapted to changes in both technology and customer demand. This second approach not only applies to physical capital but equally to social capital, such as health and education and green GDP. To measure the social wealth of a population, it is not the amount of money spent on schools and hospitals that matters, butif this expenditure has led to a better education of the students, and a better health of the people.     

重庆市生态系统服务价值与区域经济增长的时空动态关系研究

投资自然资本（NC）、提升生态系统服务价值(ESV)是协同推进经济增长和环境保护的重要举措，其关键之一在于测算生态系统服务价值。基于2009～2016年重庆市各类土地利用类型面积的调查数据，测算了全市ESV，并结合研究期间各区县经济水平，系统分析了ESV与经济增长时空动态关系的演变。研究结果表明：（1）全市ESV在2009、2012和2016年分别是 4 011.29、4 000.63 和4 037.24 亿元，呈先降后升的U型变动。（2）变动的主要原因在于林地面积的变化，建设用地对林地等的占用导致了前期的下降，而退耕还林、天然林资源保护、三峡后续植被恢复等生态工程的实施促进了后期的上升。（3）从空间自相关关系来看，全市人均GDP与地均ESV负相关关系减弱，表现为“低高组合为主，双低双高为辅”，低-高聚类分布在渝东北和渝东南地区，高-高聚类分布在渝西地区。最后，因地制宜地提出实现经济和生态双增长的对策与建议。     

中国可持续农业和农村发展试验示范区的建设

资源相对短缺、环境污染、农业生态环境总体形势较为严峻和人口不断增加等是制约我国农业与农村可持续发展的主要限制因子。为探索一条适合我国国情的农业与农村持续发展的道路，“八五”期间，结合不同地区的生态类型和经济特征，在全国29个地、县进行了农业与农村可持续发展的示范区建设。本文介绍了试验示范区建设的内容及特点。     

Social determinants of soil and water conservation in rural Kenya

Soil erosion is a major environmental problem and threat to rural development in Kenya. Numerous attempts to address the problem have apparently had little success. There are however some districts that have been very successful, notably Machakos. In this study we search for the factors that determine successful development in soil conservation such as social capital, human capital and market integration. One of our main results is that social capital measures are significant determinants of investment in soil conservation. A better understanding of the relevant mechanisms is essential for developing policies targeting improvement in natural resource management.

人力资本、产业结构调整与绿色发展效率的作用机制

寻求经济增长与环境改善的双赢已成为中国推进绿色发展的内在要求。人力资本与产业结构调整相互作用,均被视作改善绿色发展效率的重要支撑条件,然而两者的相互作用能否促进中国绿色发展效率提升尚未得到关注。本文梳理人力资本、产业结构调整与绿色发展效率之间的作用机制,在使用包含非期望产出的SBM模型测算中国1997—2013年各省份绿色发展效率的基础上,识别人力资本、产业结构调整及其交互对于绿色发展效率的作用方向与影响力度。结果显示:总体而言,样本期内绿色发展效率存在无效率状态,这与中国粗放型发展方式有关;从空间尺度上看,绿色发展效率呈现出东部高于中西部的态势;从时间尺度上看,绿色发展效率在样本前半期与后半期的变动趋势并不一致,前半期效率值呈现出下降趋势而后半期则表现为波动变动;全国层面与东、中、西部人力资本水平以及人力资本结构未能发挥提升绿色发展效率的作用,产业结构调整的两个维度——产业结构高级化与产业结构合理化在全国层面与东、中部均表现出改善绿色发展效率的态势;人力资本水平(人力资本结构)与产业结构高级化、产业结构合理化的交互项对于绿色发展效率的提升作用在全国层面与东部有所体现但力度不强。应以联动性而非割裂的视角看待中国所进行的人力资本培育与产业结构调整,应当努力减少人力资本与产业结构调整之间相互脱节、不相适应的状况,不断增进人力资本与产业结构调整的适配性以提升中国各省份绿色发展效率。     

Application of a tri-capital community resilience framework for assessing the social–ecological system sustainability of community-based forest management in the Philippines

This study proposes and empirically tests a framework that integrates the concepts of community resilience and social–ecological system (SES) resilience through community forestry case studies. The framework provides a possible approach for assessing community resilience based on the development and allocation of socio-cultural, economic, and natural capital of individual households within a given forest community. Furthermore, aspects of SES resilience and system dynamics are used to define the potential state thresholds of community resilience. This exploratory attempt to quantify community resilience, using the proposed framework, aims to advance understanding of the conceptual overlaps of SES and community resilience as applied to forestry management. We consider community forestry groups as SES examples in which the community is an important stakeholder in managing natural forest capital. We selected pioneer communities under the community-based forest management (CBFM) Program in the Philippines as our case studies. We found that, on average, CBFM group members demonstrated moderate levels of resilience according to their acquired levels of capital. Although economic capital remained the weakest capital, the CBFM program had a positive effect in increasing the socio-cultural and natural capital of an entire community.     

Carbon-14, tree rings,and urban air pollution

Differences in natural ¹⁴C content of rings from trees from urban and rural locations have been compared on a year by year basis. The differences as a fraction of the urban tree's radioactivity reflect the local excess ¹⁴C-free carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion in the urban environment. New York City, Boston, and Washington, D.C., show different degrees of excess carbon dioxide. New York City averages about 6% excess carbon dioxide between 1950 and 1970. From this is infered an average carbon monoxide concentration during this period of 5 ppm.     

生计资本异质对农户农地流转行为的影响——以武汉城市郊区的516户农民为例

以武汉市城郊江夏区和蔡甸区的516户农民家庭为实证,运用logistic和分位数回归模型探索家庭生计资本对农户土地流转行为的影响及阈值。结果表明:(1)人力资本和金融资本与农户农地转出行为呈显著正向相关,家庭农地资源禀赋、机耕能力、社会资源禀赋及经营能力的信任程度等与农地转出行为负向相关。相反,自然资源禀赋及农业机械投入对农户土地转入行为的正向影响显著,而家庭融资能力则对农户转入行为呈显著的负向影响。(2)分位数回归结果显示,对农户土地流转行为存在影响阈值的仅有韧性指数。当农户家庭韧性指数≤2时,随韧性指数增强农户农地转出倾向愈强;家庭韧性指数≥3时,农户农地转出倾向随指数增强而弱化。该研究从农户微观个体视角探索生计资本异质对农地流转行为的影响,为针对农户家庭需求制定差别化的农地流转政策、有效推进农业适度规模经营提供建议参考。     

Using sustainability science to analyse social–ecological restoration in NE Japan after the great earthquake and tsunami of 2011

In the wake of the catastrophic earthquake and tsunami that devastated part of northeastern Japan in March 2011, proposals for reconstruction and rehabilitation are still subjects of debate. The claim by many climate scientists that large-scale extreme events can be expected in the future, with similar catastrophic effects in coastal areas, suggests the need for long-term planning that aims at building resilience, the ability for socio-ecological systems to withstand and recover quickly from natural disasters, and continue to develop. We hypothesize that ecosystems and socio-economic resilience will provide affected communities with flexible barriers against future disasters and greater protection in the long run than will hard/engineering solutions such as high seawalls aimed at ensuring only physical security. Building social/ecological resilience in the Tohoku region will increase general security and is anticipated also to contribute to an enhanced quality of life now and for generations to come. This paper argues that building resilience in the affected area requires a transformation to sustainable agriculture, forestry and fisheries and we describe how the links between satoyama and satoumi, traditional rural territorial and coastal landscapes in Japan, can contribute to this revitalization and to strengthening the relationship between local residents and the landscape in the affected communities. Decision makers at local, regional and national levels need to take a holistic approach based on sustainability science to understand the inter-relationships between these landscapes and ecosystems to develop a robust rebuilding plan for the affected communities. Moreover, this paper suggests that building resilient communities in Japan that demonstrate the strategic benefits of satoyama and satoumi linkages can be a model for building resilient rural and urban communities throughout the world.