The Effect of Jump on Evaluating Natural Resource Investments

Abstract

The evaluation of mining and other natural resource projects is made particularly difficult by the high degree of uncertainty attaching to output prices. It is shown that the techniques of continuous time arbitrage and stochastic control theory may be used not only to value such projects but also to determine the optimal policies for developing managing. This paper describes a model for evaluating natural resource investments under uncertainty from a new perspective. The previous works in this field mostly regard the movements of natural resource prices as a continuous GBM process, which pays few attentions to the shock of unexpected bad news. Our model provides the first theoretical method to analyze the impact of such “jump” on investment decisions. It concludes that the more frequently bad news happens, the earlier a project will be invested.     

Scientific understanding of stakeholders’ behavior in mining community

We attempt to understand, scientifically, how different members of the mining concession, impacted communities, and government authorities behave when a conflicting situation arises. The main purpose of our effort is to start developing a framework for the scientific modeling of stakeholders’ behavior, and we create a reality-driven generic scenario of conflict. We assume that the managers and superintendants of a mining operation currently envision a problem; one that tests the limits of the commitment of the company’s mission statement, and of the spectrum of actions taken which are embedded in the “culture” of the company’s corporate social responsibility. It is an “event” that highlights the nature of an overall problem that the company would like to predict and act proactively: the integration of scientific tools, sustainability, and cultural realities within a mining framework. We adapt an agent-based modeling approach and start with a theoretical understanding of certain social behavior, build a model, and simulate “what if” scenarios to understand its dynamics to gain a better insight of the complexity of a seemingly simple social system of interest.     

Assessing the role of consumers in sustainable product policies

A global analysis shows that considerable forces contribute nowadays to the perpetuation of the so-called “developed” model of consumption, and its extension to growing parts of the world, despite reiterated calls for “modification of production and consumption patterns”. Environmental product regulation can be situated in this general perspective. This paper returns to the framing of policies devoted to ecologically sustainable consumption, taking the example of the Integrated product policy at the European level. How are the objectives of such policies defined? What instruments are privileged? Comparing theoretical approaches with policy design, we focus on the role devoted to consumers in these contexts. Bringing in literature evidence, survey results and findings from an original study, we argue that appropriate knowledge of the diversity of consumers’ attitudes and about the limitations of their possible actions is not properly taken into account in product policies, notably when information and voluntary tools are dominant. From this point of view, environmental product regulations are well justified, but they should, as all policy instruments implicating consumers, take careful notice of their situation.     

The influence of the level of definition of functional specifications on the environmental performances of a complex system. EcoCSP approach

The tendency towards a homogenous mode of development modelled on that of Western countries means that sustainable development has become increasingly urgent. It is necessary to thoroughly redefine products and their expected performances in such a way that the consequences are compatible with sustainable development. In the domain of product design, this means that it is no longer sufficient to use assessment tools “after the fact” to check the impact of products whose functional unit (FU) was defined prior to production; it is now necessary to rethink the definition of the FU itself. This article aims to present an approach based on a combination of life cycle analysis methods and problem-solving by constraint satisfaction. This original approach makes it possible to vary the design of the different dimensions of the FUs of a complex system and thus to make it easier to identify the best architecture along with the best functional definition of the system. In this study, the EcoCSP approach is applied to define the functional performances of an ecological passenger ferry. The complexity of couplings between subsystems and the sheer number of those subsystems mean that the designer has to use “intelligent” tools. These simulate a great number of scenarios and help him/her to fine-tune the system and make the right technological choices with regard to the right functional specifications.     

A review of research on China’s carbon emission peak and its forcing mechanism

In order to make further steps in dealing with climate change, China proposed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by about 2030 and to make best efforts for the peaking early. The carbon emission peak target (CEPT) must result in a forcing mechanism on China’s economic transition. This paper, by following the logical order from “research on carbon emission history” to “carbon emission trend prediction,” from “research on paths of realizing peak” to “peak restraint research,” provides a general review of current status and development trend of researches on China’s carbon emission and its peak value. Furthermore, this paper also reviews the basic theories and specific cases of the forcing mechanism. Based on the existing achievements and development trends in this field, the following research directions that can be further expanded are put forward. First, from the perspective of long-term strategy of sustainable development, we should analyze and construct the forcing mechanism of CEPT in a reverse thinking way. Second, economic transition paths under the forcing mechanism should be systematically studied. Third, by constructing a large-scale policy evaluation model, the emission reduction performance and economic impact of a series of policy measures adopted during the transition process should be quantitatively evaluated.     

基于“三生功能”的长江上游城市群国土空间特征及其优化

国土空间是人类生产、生活活动及生态文明建设的载体,如何促进国土空间有序、适度和可持续开发利用,是当前亟待解决的科学问题。基于"三生功能"视角,通过熵权法和功能评价分析长江上游城市群国土空间特征,并利用空间功能比较优势指数、系统聚类等方法,探讨其国土空间优化方案。结果表明:(1)长江上游城市群"三生功能"呈"少强多弱"的特征,空间上城市生产、生活功能测度值自核心城市区向外围区域呈递减的趋势,且低值区总体成片分布;(2)生态功能测度值自核心城市向外围区域总体呈递增的趋势,区域生态安全格局构建与经济发展矛盾明显;(3)将长江上游城市群国土空间划分为4种优势功能区,并提出了长江上游城市群国土空间优化方案。     

The scientific challenge of bridging the gap from the local to the earth system level: lessons from the study of mangroves and people in North Brazil

This article aims to address the challenges of sustainable earth system governance from a multi-scale level perspective. The local to regional system level reviews findings from a social–ecological system approach of a mangrove ecosystem in North Brazil. Seven challenges (Glaser et al. in Mangrove dynamics and management in North Brazil. Ecological studies series. Springer, Berlin, pp 307–388, 2010) that could provide relevant knowledge to society were identified. Their respective justification and recommendations are presented here. Further, these “challenges from the field” are linked and discussed with those challenges on earth system level elaborated by the International Council for Science in 2010. There it was stressed that sustainability problems are increasingly caused by drivers from multiple spatial and institutional levels in a single global human–nature system. The comparison between the global and local to regional challenges shows that most of these are reappearing disregarding the level of analysis, indicating that there is a universal core of global change problems. However, there are gaps visible which hamper the effective connections across the different spatial levels. These pertain to the subjects of knowledge generation and stakeholder inclusion. The final section elaborates on these recognized gaps and their science–policy dimensions. The article closes with the identification of a number of factors which currently impede global sustainability efforts: shortcomings in inter- and transdisciplinary research practice, lack of consistent structures for earth system governance and shortcomings in dealing with upscaling challenges whilst remaining locally relevant. A blueprint for a globally focused but regionally informed social–ecological analysis framework remains to be worked out.     

Investigating the role of smartness for sustainability: insights from the Smart Grid domain

Over the past decades, information and communication technologies (ICT) established themselves as the key force towards more effective and efficient usage of resources in our society, namely via better use of available information, automation, stakeholder involvement, and decision support. By analyzing recent advancements in knowledge offered by ICT, it is possible to identify their strong correlation with the principles, aims, and interests of sustainability science, which can be highly inspired by ICT-intensive domains. In this paper, we study the theoretical background on system thinking as an interpretative lens able to support better understanding of dimensions and dynamics involved in the domain of sustainability, and examine the role of ICT in advancing sustainability goals. Then, we analyze the domain of the Smart Grid as a prominent example of complex technological contribution in face of the challenges of sustainability, and present the insights from this domain, which are turned into sustainability guidelines for other domains, linking smartness, and sustainability in the light of systems thinking and Smart Grid experience. In summary, the core recommendation of this work is the employment of information technology to widen the scope of the sustainability “game” by sliding activities in time and space, and in engaging more “players” in the game, which is now made possible thanks to the advancement in ICT.     

生态足迹动态预测模型构建与分析

生态足迹的动态预测能够为区域可持续发展政策的制定提供科学的理论依据,但其研究仍处于探索阶段。以武汉市为例,选取表征社会经济发展的重要指标建立了社会经济系统指标体系,在对武汉市1978~2004年生态足迹时间序列计量的基础上,应用偏最小二乘算法构建了生态足迹动态预测模型,并根据〖WTBX〗VIP〖WTBZ〗值的大小分析了各指标对生态足迹的影响机制。结果表明,武汉市“十一五”规划期间生态足迹呈上升趋势,其中规划期末2010年的人均生态足迹为2810 5 hm2,高于全球生态阈值（人均生态足迹为2200 0 hm2）;根据〖WTBX〗VIP〖WTBZ〗值得出人口、能源消费量和第三产业所占比重为最重要的影响因子,并就如何实现武汉市“十一五”规划目标提出了政策性建议。将科技进步贡献率、能源消费量等重要因子纳入社会经济系统指标体系,弥补了在生态足迹定量测度中忽略社会、经济、科技因素对其影响的不足;另一方面,引入偏最小二乘算法中的〖WTBX〗VIP〖WTBZ〗值更准确地评价了各指标对生态足迹变化的影响,为生态足迹动态预测研究作了进一步地完善与改进。〖     

基于系统动力学的中国土地利用系统健康评价研究

通过仿真模拟中国土地利用系统状况,探寻实现土地利用系统健康发展的情景模式,为中国在2035年基本实现社会主义现代化,及进一步实现可持续发展目标提供参考路径。研究采用系统动力学模型构建土地利用系统,共模拟得到18种情景方案。通过设定经济发展、粮食安全和生态安全目标对情景方案进行筛选,保留了6种情景。采用"压力-状态-响应"(PSR)模型构建土地利用系统健康评价体系,对6种情景进行评价。研究结果表明:第2种情景土地利用系统的健康水平最优且符合国情需要。最优政策情景具体表现为经济保持中速发展,到2035年GDP增长率稳落在4%,总量达到约200万亿;人口中速增长,2035年人口稳定在约14.85亿;土地整治力度大幅提升,土地整治投资金升至每年600～1 000亿元。     

A perspective on radical transformations to sustainability: resistances,movements and alternatives

A transformation to sustainability calls for radical and systemic societal shifts. Yet what this entails in practice and who the agents of this radical transformation are require further elaboration. This article recenters the role of environmental justice movements in transformations, arguing that the systemic, multi-dimensional and intersectional approach inherent in EJ activism is uniquely placed to contribute to the realization of equitable sustainable futures. Based on a perspective of conflict as productive, and a “conflict transformation” approach that can address the root issues of ecological conflicts and promote the emergence of alternatives, we lay out a conceptual framework for understanding transformations through a power analysis that aims to confront and subvert hegemonic power relations; that is, multi-dimensional and intersectional; balancing ecological concerns with social, economic, cultural and democratic spheres; and is multi-scalar, and mindful of impacts across place and space. Such a framework can help analyze and recognize the contribution of grassroots EJ movements to societal transformations to sustainability and support and aid radical transformation processes. While transitions literature tends to focus on artifacts and technologies, we suggest that a resistance-centred perspective focuses on the creation of new subjectivities, power relations, values and institutions. This recenters the agency of those who are engaged in the creation and recuperation of ecological and new ways of being in the world in the needed transformation.     

煤矿区域可持续发展的动力学模型

本文从系统论的观点出发 ,结合当前煤矿区域的实际情况 ,给出了煤矿区域系统所具备的动力学性质和特征 ,通过所建的一个数学模型 ,探讨了煤矿区域煤炭资源持续利用与地方经济可持续发展之间的非线性关系及其调控措施     

可持续能源转型:模型构建与分析

为研究可持续能源系统转型路径,以转型理论为概念框架,从宏观、中观和微观多层次对能源系统进行分析,建立了基于代理的系统动力学转型模型。模型选取当前能源消费结构中占较大比重的煤炭、石油、天然气、风能、水电、光伏和核能作为复杂代理,选取消费者作为简单代理,根据中国能源数据对其进行参数化,并模拟运行了能源系统从2016—2050年间各种类型能源消费比重变动的情形。研究结果显示:①外部景观信号的输入对于能源系统的可持续转型有着至关重要的作用。随着景观信号的输入,各类能源的相对比重发生复杂的相互作用,景观信号持续时间越长、强度越大,向可持续能源系统转型的速度越快、规模越大。②到2050年,可持续能源将占一次能源消费比重的60%左右,实现能源系统的可持续转型,其中,水电将在能源系统的可持续化转型中发挥重要的作用。③2030年以前,石油和天然气将是能源系统中煤炭消费比重下降的主要替代品,因为它们的应用技术已经发展成熟,而且它们更适应当前的基础设施,从短期来看相比可持续能源石油和天然气更有优势,在这种情形下,仍然需要继续支持可持续能源的发展,否则能源系统的可持续转型将不会发生。该研究主要探索通过当前能源系统的景观压力强度以及转型的进度,来量化未来需要输入的景观压力强度;通过模拟转型发生的具体情景,对转型的进展进行更清楚的界定,借此来评估二氧化碳的排放路径;模拟模型也可以评估各类能源在不同时间点上的各种可能性,以及探索各类可持续能源的发展潜力。     

Assessing the impacts of sustainable development projects in the Amazon: the DURAMAZ experiment

Since 1992, a boom of “sustainable development projects” has been registered in the Brazilian Amazon, turning it into a kind of open-air laboratory for sustainability. But their real impacts remain unclear, especially because of inadequate evaluation tools. A new device is therefore needed to unveil the inner mechanisms of development aid despite the difficulties linked with the diversity of contexts or the heterogeneity in the relevant parameters. Those are the challenges we met when we engaged in comparing the impacts of sustainable development programs in 13 sites throughout the Brazilian Amazon in order to identify determining factors of sustainability. To achieve our objective, we conceived an indicator system based on the results of intensive fieldwork, including social, economic, environmental, and biographical issues. Our results show that the most prominent problem of sustainability—evaluation of effectiveness—has not been tackled; life conditions and environmental preservation continue to appear antagonistic. At the same time, variability appears among outwardly coherent social groups, showing that a case-to-case approach is definitely indispensable and confirming the need to go “beyond panaceas” to find resolutions. This article successively addresses three points. First, we present the starting point of our research, or how the Amazon region was turned into a laboratory for sustainability and how our research project aimed at analyzing the consequences of this trend. Second, we discuss how available indicator systems fail to respond to the need for a multidimensional evaluation at the local level and, therefore, how we constituted our own analytical tool. Third, we focus on some results that can be derived from our system, especially in terms of identifying key factors needed to achieve sustainability in the Amazon.     

Global sustainable development report: background,progress, and recommendations

Formulating the GSDR Formulating the GSDR (global sustainable development report) is one of the important achievements initiated by the “Rio +20” summit, and it has received worldwide attention. Nowadays, the international community has made a preliminary consensus on the orientation, key focuses, frameworks, and time schedule of GSDR. But, there are still great divergences in the relationship between GSDR and SDGs/post-MDGs (sustainable development goals/post-2015 development agenda), the GSDR organizational model, and whether countries writing their own national sustainable development report or not. After reviewing the whole process of formulating GSDR, some recommendations for writing GSDR from the Chinese perspective are proposed. The GSDR report should be a science-based and policy-making-oriented assessment report. The GSDR should focus on the priority areas that SDGs/post-MDGs have already identified as core fields. “Limited in number, easy to quantify, and universally applicable” comprehensive assessment indices of sustainable development should be proposed. A GSDR international working group of experts should be established. Countries should be encouraged to formulate the “National Sustainable Development Report” according to their own domestic practices. GSDR should be integrated with the high-level political forum (HLPF). Meanwhile, some suggestions on China’s participation in the GSDR process are also proposed. China’s 2030 mid-term and long-term national sustainable development goals (CSDGs) based on both the SDGs/post-MDGs and domestic practice are proposed. According to the implementation of national sustainable development goals, China should start the appropriate assessment of the progress and regularly report on the national sustainable development. Chinese scientists should be encouraged to actively participate in the process of GSDR.     

Exploration on Relativity of Modern Economic Science: Viewpoint Based on Sustainable Development

Modern economics is a market economic theory and a necessary knowledge for people to understand market economy. However, when modern economic science puts in a “great economic system”, modern economic science seems to be little convincing and even deviates from the science of sustainable development. This shows that modern economic science has relativity, and must be transformed by the idea of sustainable development.     

Management Model of Resources Equilibrium Distribution among Overlapping-Generations

The overlapping generation models the western scholars have designed from various perspectives to address different kinds of issues do not reflect Chinese emerging political and economic problems, and cannot be entirely and blindly applied to Chinese practical situation. In this paper the authors endeavor to incorporate some western scholars' research results into their own research findings to present overlapping generations model theory in a new perspective through establishing an overlapping generations theory on population including articulation of concepts and theorems of biological generation, economic generation and social generation and the overlapping periods in biological generation and two overlapping periods in economic generation among three generations. This management model with equilibrium distribution of resource wealth includes overlapping generations length model (6), equilibrium transfer model (θ) and a complete model on equilibrium distribution among generations (δ-θ). The model p     

基于生态系统服务功能理论的生态足迹模型研究

由于传统Wackemagel and Rees生态足迹模型仅研究人类对资源的需求和生态系统供给的生物生产能力之间的差距,忽略了生态系统的其它功能,无法体现生态系统的整体性.本文以传统生态足迹模型为基础,引入生态系统服务功能价值理论,提出了基于生态系统服务功能价值的生态足迹模型.该模型以生态生产性土地的生态服务功能价值评估为基础,改进传统生态足迹模型中均衡因子和产量因子的计算方法.采用生物生产性土地的综合生态系统服务功能的价值当量因子计量生态足迹模型中的均衡因子,采用生态系统单元的单位面积生态系统服务功能价值与全国该生态系统单元的平均价值的比值表示产量因子.改进后的生态足迹模型既反映了区域人类资源消费对生物生产性土地的占用,又反映了区域人类资源消费对生态系统服务功能的使用,较科学的体现了生态系统的整体性.同时,本文以大连市2005年社会经济统计数据为基础,运用改进的生态足迹模型对大连市的生态足迹进行了测算,对研究模型进行了检验.     

A biophysically anchored production function

The first part presents a conceptual model of the economic system in its ecological and social context. It is developed via an integration of basic concepts in physical resource theory, animal and human physiology, economic theory and systems ecology. The capacity of the model to support analysis of such complex systems where life is a key system characteristic is high. The conceptual model shows the dependency of the human economy on support by non-renewable and renewable resources from Nature (i.e. ecological source restrictions), as well as the capacity of ecosystems to assimilate wastes (ecological sink restrictions). The analysis focuses general principles; thus, the high level of abstraction results in an apparent simplicity. In the second part, we integrate traditional economic production functions and the conceptual model, which results in the formulation of a biophysically anchored production function (BAPF). The BAPF by itself, and through the system of ecological economic accounts that can be derived from it, represent a toolbox that supports the operationalisation of a sustainable development from micro to macro level. It is coherent with Impredicative Loop Analysis, existing management systems within agricultural sciences, OECD’s principles for sustainable development and the approach of Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Compared to analytical approaches used in the formulation of sustainability policies in the private and public sphere, based on conceptual models ignoring the complexity when life (bios) is a defining system characteristic, its relevance for the operationalisation of sustainable development approaches infinity. The third part presents results from statistical analysis of relations between gross domestic product and energy supply and some emissions, respectively, for different nations and time periods, delivering values on levels and trends for parameters in the BAPF as well as a first test of the relevance of the BAPF proposed. The paper is ended by a theoretical analysis of the costs of provoking an economic system working under ecological source and sink restrictions to follow exponential growth: The need to decouple economic growth from natural resource use and emissions is highlighted. Otherwise, the erosion of the ecological foundation of the economy with regard to source as well as sink aspects will be a function of exponential growth.