Climate change, agricultural insecticide exposure, and risk for freshwater communities

Climate change exerts direct effects on ecosystems but has additional indirect effects due to changes in agricultural practice. These include the increased use of pesticides, changes in the areas that are cultivated, and changes in the crops cultivated. It is well known that pesticides, and in particular insecticides, affect aquatic ecosystems adversely. To implement effective mitigation measures it is necessary to identify areas that are affected currently and those that will be affected in the future. As a consequence, we predicted potential exposure to insecticide (insecticide runoff potential, RP) under current conditions (1990) and under a model scenario of future climate and land use (2090) using a spatially explicit model on a continental scale, with a focus on Europe. Space-for-time substitution was used to predict future levels of insecticide application, intensity of agricultural land use, and cultivated crops. To assess the indirect effects of climate change, evaluation of the risk of insecticide exposure was based on a trait-based, climate-insensitive indicator system (SPEAR, SPEcies At Risk). To this end, RP and landscape characteristics that are relevant for the recovery of affected populations were combined to estimate the ecological risk (ER) of insecticides for freshwater communities. We predicted a strong increase in the application of, and aquatic exposure to, insecticides under the future scenario, especially in central and northern Europe. This, in turn, will result in a severe increase in ER in these regions. Hence, the proportion of stream sites adjacent to arable land that do not meet the requirements for good ecological status as defined by the EU Water Framework Directive will increase (from 33% to 39% for the EU-25 countries), in particular in the Scandinavian and Baltic countries (from 6% to 19%). Such spatially explicit mapping of risk enables the planning of adaptation and mitigation strategies including vegetated buffer strips and nonagricultural recolonization zones along streams.     

Marine reserves,fisheries ban,and 20 years of positive change in a coral reef ecosystem

By 2004, Belize was exhibiting classic fishing down of the food web. Groupers (Serranidae) and snappers (Lutjanidae) were scarce and fisheries turned to parrotfishes (Scarinae), leading to a 41% decline in their biomass. Several policies were enacted in 2009–2010, including a moratorium on fishing parrotfish and a new marine park with no-take areas. Using a 20-year time series on reef fish and benthos, we evaluated the impact of these policies approximately 10 years after their implementation. Establishment of the Southwater Caye Marine Reserve led to a recovery of snapper at 2 out of 3 sites, but there was no evidence of recovery outside the reserve. Snapper populations in an older reserve continued to increase, implying that at least 9 years is required for their recovery. Despite concerns over the feasibility of banning parrotfish harvest once it has become a dominant fin fishery, parrotfishes returned and exceeded biomass levels prior to the fishery. The majority of these changes involved an increase in parrotfish density; species composition and adult body size generally exhibited little change. Recovery occurred equally well in reserves and areas open to other forms of fishing, implying strong compliance. Temporal trends in parrotfish grazing intensity were strongly negatively associated with the cover of macroalgae, which by 2018 had fallen to the lowest levels observed since measurements began in 1998. Coral populations remained resilient and continued to exhibit periods of net recovery after disturbance. We found that a moratorium on parrotfish harvesting is feasible and appears to help constrain macroalgae, which can otherwise impede coral resilience.     

鼎湖山针阔叶混交林生态系统水文过程研究

以鼎湖山针阔叶混交林（以下简称混交林）生态系统为研究对象，探讨了不同降水特征下森林生态系统水文过程，主要研究结果如下：（1）不同的降雨特征决定了不同的降雨过程和穿透雨过程，混交林生态系统穿透雨累积增加曲线与降水量的累积增加曲线变化是同步的；（2）2002年7月27日-28日特大暴雨最大降水量、最大穿透雨量分别为122．8nn和104．9mm,且穿透雨最大值出现的时间滞后于降水强度最大值出现的时间1h；（3）8月18日-20日特大暴雨，穿透雨量累积增加曲线与大气降水的累积增加曲线非常相似，且穿透雨最大值出现的时间略滞后与大气降水最大值出现的时间；（4）中雨时降水累积量达到最大值（59．6mm）与穿透雨累积量达到最大值（43．6mm）的时间一致；（5）树干流和地表径流量与大气降水量的累积变化曲线并不是完全同步的，在一定的降水量范围内，树干流量和地表径流量随着大气降水量的增加而增加；（6）无论是特大暴雨还是中雨发生时，即使在特大暴雨影响下，树干流（2．3～16．4mm）和地表径流（1．6～8．8mm）量都很小，系统具有很强的保水保墒能力；（7）混交林穿透雨强度变化过程基本取决于大气降水强度变化，树干流强度和地表径流强度数值很小且变化过程不明显。     

Zooplankton responses to hydrological and trophic variability in a Mediterranean coastal ecosystem (Lesina Lagoon,South Adriatic Sea)

Spatial and temporal variability in zooplankton was studied at eight stations located in the Lesina Lagoon (South Adriatic Sea) Salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen and chlorophyll a (in the lagoon) at these stations were also assessed. The zooplankton community was characterised by clear seasonal oscillations and mostly represented by copepods and their larvae. The dominant copepod species were Calanipeda aquaedulcis and Acartia tonsa, which exhibited spatial–temporal segregation in the lagoon. C. aquaedulcis copepodites seemed to be better adapted to oligotrophic and oligohaline conditions compared with the A. tonsa population. The invasive species A. tonsa has completely replaced the formerly abundant Acartia margalefi. A positive correlation was found between abundances, total species numbers and trophic state. An increasing abundance trend was shown from the lagoon towards the sea. The highest diversity indices were recorded at the two channel inlets, during high tide due to the absence of a clear dominance of one or more coastal species and the co-occurrence of species of lagoon and marine origin.     

Heavy metals in fish species from lotic freshwater ecosystem at Afikpo, Nigeria

A study was conducted between March 2006 and February 2007 to assess the concentration of Fe, Zn, Cu, Mn, Pb, and Cr in the gills and muscles of six fish species (Chrysichthys nigrodigitatus, Clarias anguillaris, Tillapia zillii, Mormyrus rume rume, Mormyrus macrophthalmus and Mormyrus tapirus) from lotic freshwater ecosystem at Afikpo South- East Nigeria using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer. In all the fish species studied the concentration of metals in the gills was significantly higher than that of the muscles (p<0.05). While the highest concentration (mg l(-1)) of Fe (702.20 +/- 0.04), Zn (34.40 +/- 0.02), Cu (2.10 +/- 0.01), Mn (4.91 +/- 0.08) Pb (0.50 +/- 0.02) and Cr (1.12 +/- 0.07) were recorded in the gills of C. nigrodigitatus, that in the muscles were recorded in T. zillii (443.20 +/- 0.08, 23.30 +/- 0.06, 1.33 +/- 0.06, 3.09 +/- 0.02, 0.31 +/- 0.01 and 0.66 +/- 0.04 for Fe, Zn, Cu, Mn, Pb and Cr respectively). The lowest concentration of all the heavy metals in the gills was recorded in M. tapirus (309.00 +/- 0.07, 16.45 +/- 0.03, 0.92 +/- 0.04, 2.15 +/- 0.04, 0.21 +/- 0.01 and 0.50 +/- 0.06 mg l(-1)for Fe, Zn, Cu Mn, Pb and Cr respectively) while the lowest in the muscles was recorded in C. anguillaris [Fe (186.00 +/- 0.07), Zn (14.20 +/- 0.08), Cu (0.56 +/- 0.03), Mn (1.30 +/- 0.02), Pb (0.10 +/- 0.01) and Cr (0.28 +/- 0.04)]. The order of heavy metals concentrations in both the gills and muscles was Fe>Zn>Mn>Cu>Cr>Pb. While the concentration of Zn, Cu and Pb both in the muscles and gills of all the six fish species studied were within the WHO and FEPA prescribed limits, that of Fe(except in the muscles), Mn and Cr were above the prescribed limits thus indicating contamination of the fish species by these metals. Fe has the highest bio-concentration factor (BCF) in both tissues while the least was Cu. Periodic monitoring of these metals in both fishes and river to ensure safety is advocated.     

Nematomorph parasites drive energy flow through a riparian ecosystem

Parasites are ubiquitous in natural systems and ecosystem-level effects should be proportional to the amount of biomass or energy flow altered by the parasites. Here we quantified the extent to which a manipulative parasite altered the flow of energy through a forest-stream ecosystem. In a Japanese headwater stream, camel crickets and grasshoppers (Orthoptera) were 20 times more likely to enter a stream if infected by a nematomorph parasite (Gordionus spp.), corroborating evidence that nematomorphs manipulate their hosts to seek water where the parasites emerge as free-living adults. Endangered Japanese trout (Salvelinus leucomaenis japonicus) readily ate these infected orthopterans, which due to their abundance, accounted for 60% of the annual energy intake of the trout population. Trout grew fastest in the fall, when nematomorphs were driving energy-rich orthopterans into the stream. When infected orthopterans were available, trout did not eat benthic invertebrates in proportion to their abundance, leading to the potential for cascading, indirect effects through the forest-stream ecosystem. These results provide the first quantitative evidence that a manipulative parasite can dramatically alter the flow of energy through and across ecosystems.     

Framing the ecosystem concept through a longitudinal study of developments in science and policy

This paper examines how scientific literature and policy documents frame the ecosystem concept and how these frames have shaped scientific dialogue and policy making over time. This was achieved by developing a frame typology, as a basis for organizing relevant value expressions, to assess how different frames have altered perspectives of the ecosystem concept. The frame typology and analysis is based on a semi‐grounded and longitudinal document analysis of scientific literature and policy documents using the ecosystem concept. Despite changing discourses and public priorities (e.g., cultural constructs of biodiversity) both science and policy documents are characterized by stable value systems that have not changed substantially since the 1930s. These value systems were defined based on ethical principles that delineate 6 core frames: humans first, dual systems, eco‐science, eco‐holism, animals first, and multicentrism. Specific crises (e.g., climate change) and cross‐disciplinary uptake and re‐uptake of, for example, the ecosystem services concept, have brought new perspectives to the forefront of public discourse. These developments triggered changes in the core frames that, rather than being value based, are based on how the ecosystem is conceptualized under fixed value systems and over time. Fourteen subframes were developed to reflect these longitudinal changes. There are as such clear framing effects in both scientific literature and in policy. Ecosystem research is for instance often characterized by unstated value judgments even though the scientific community does not make these explicit. In contrast, policy documents are characterized by clear value expressions but are principally management driven and human centered.     

Quantification of advective solute travel times and mass transport through hydrological catchments

This study has investigated and outlined the possible quantification and mapping of the distributions of advective solute travel times through hydrological catchments. These distributions are essential for understanding how local water flow and solute transport and attenuation processes affect the catchment-scale transport of solute, for instance with regard to biogeochemical cycling, contamination persistence and water quality. The spatial and statistical distributions of advective travel times have been quantified based on reported hydrological flow and mass-transport modeling results for two coastal Swedish catchments. The results show that the combined travel time distributions for the groundwater-stream network continuum in these catchments depend largely on the groundwater system and model representation, in particular regarding the spatial variability of groundwater hydraulic parameters (conductivity, porosity and gradient), and the possible contributions of slower/deeper groundwater flow components. Model assumptions about the spatial variability of groundwater hydraulic properties can thus greatly affect model results of catchment-scale solute spreading. The importance of advective travel time variability for the total mass delivery of naturally attenuated solute (tracer, nutrient, pollutant) from a catchment to its downstream water recipient depends on the product of catchment-average physical travel time and attenuation rate.     

A protocol for eliciting nonmaterial values through a cultural ecosystem services frame

Stakeholders’ nonmaterial desires, needs, and values often critically influence the success of conservation projects. These considerations are challenging to articulate and characterize, resulting in their limited uptake in management and policy. We devised an interview protocol designed to enhance understanding of cultural ecosystem services (CES). The protocol begins with discussion of ecosystem‐related activities (e.g., recreation, hunting) and management and then addresses CES, prompting for values encompassing concepts identified in the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005) and explored in other CES research. We piloted the protocol in Hawaii and British Columbia. In each location, we interviewed 30 individuals from diverse backgrounds. We analyzed results from the 2 locations to determine the effectiveness of the interview protocol in elucidating nonmaterial values. The qualitative and spatial components of the protocol helped characterize cultural, social, and ethical values associated with ecosystems in multiple ways. Maps and situational, or vignette‐like, questions helped respondents articulate difficult‐to‐discuss values. Open‐ended prompts allowed respondents to express a diversity of ecosystem‐related values and proved sufficiently flexible for interviewees to communicate values for which the protocol did not explicitly probe. Finally, the results suggest that certain values, those mentioned frequently throughout the interview, are particularly salient for particular populations. The protocol can provide efficient, contextual, and place‐based data on the importance of particular ecosystem attributes for human well‐being. Qualitative data are complementary to quantitative and spatial assessments in the comprehensive representation of people's values pertaining to ecosystems, and this protocol may assist in incorporating values frequently overlooked in decision making processes.     

Controlling various contaminants in wastewater effluent through membranes and engineered wetland

For effective wastewater reclamation and water recovery, the treatment of natural and effluent organic matters (NOM and EfOM), toxic anions, and micropollutants was considered in this work. Two different NOM (humic acid of the Suwannee River, and NOM of US and Youngsan River, Korea), and one EfOM from the Damyang wastewater treatment plant, Korea, were selected for investigating the removal efficiencies of tight nanofiltration (NF) and ultrafiltration (UF) membranes with different properties. Nitrate, bromate, and perchlorate were selected as target toxic anions due to their well known high toxicities. Tri-(2-chloroethyl)-phosphate (TCEP), oxybenzone, and caffeine, due to their different K _ow and pK _a values, were selected as target micropollutants. As expected, the NF membranes provided high removal efficiencies in terms of all the tested contaminants, and the UF membrane provided fairly high removal efficiencies for anions (except for nitrate) and the relatively hydrophobic micropollutant, oxybenzon. Through the wetlands, nitrate was successfully removed. Therefore, a fair process of combining membranes with an engineered wetland could be proposed for sustainable wastewater reclamation and optimum control of contaminats.     

岩溶生态系统中土壤微生物量氮含量及其变化规律

选择果树园和林地两种土地利用类型来研究土壤微生物量氮(Soil microbial biomass nitrogen,SMBN)含量及其与土壤溶解有机氮(Soil dissolved organic nitrogen,DON)、碱解氮的关系。结果表明:SMBN含量范围在5.33~34.61kg·hm-2之间,平均为14.81kg·hm-2,仅为文献中报道的SMBN的3%~37%。SMBN占土壤全氮的比例较小,为0.25%~1.5%,平均为0.754%。SMBN与DON及土壤有机碳等指标变化趋势一致。SMBN易矿化,与碱解氮关系密切,但由于岩溶山区这种特殊的生态环境,使得这种关系不像文献中报道的呈极强的正相关关系,这对于研究岩溶区特定条件下SMBN的变化以及对当地的土地利用类型有一定的参考价值和现实意义。     

Emergence cues of a mayfly in a high-altitude stream ecosystem: potential response to climate change.

To understand the consequences of human accelerated environmental change, it is important to document the effects on natural populations of an increasing frequency of extreme climatic events. In stream ecosystems, recent climate change has resulted in extreme variation in both thermal and hydrological regimes. From 2001 to 2004, a severe drought in western United States corresponded with earlier emergence of the adult stage of the high-altitude stream mayfly, Baetis bicaudatus. Using a long-term database from a western Colorado stream, the peak emergence date of this mayfly population was predicted by both the magnitude and date of peak stream flow, and by the mean daily water temperature, suggesting that Baetis may respond to declining stream flow or increasing water temperature as proximate cues for early metamorphosis. However, in a one-year survey of multiple streams from the same drainage basin, only water temperature predicted spatial variation in the onset of emergence of this mayfly. To decouple the effects of temperature and flow, we separately manipulated these factors in flow-through microcosms and measured the timing of B. bicaudatus metamorphosis to the adult stage. Mayflies emerged sooner in a warmed-water treatment than an ambient-water treatment; but reducing flow did not accelerate the onset of mayfly emergence. Nonetheless, using warming temperatures to cue metamorphosis enables mayflies to time their emergence during the descending limb of the hydrograph when oviposition sites (protruding rocks) are becoming available. We speculate that large-scale climate changes involving warming and stream drying could cause significant shifts in the timing of mayfly metamorphosis, thereby having negative effects on populations that play an important role in stream ecosystems.     

Disentangling trophic relationships in a High Arctic tundra ecosystem through food web modeling

Determining the manner in which food webs will respond to environmental changes is difficult because the relative importance of top-down vs. bottom-up forces in controlling ecosystems is still debated. This is especially true in the Arctic tundra where, despite relatively simple food webs, it is still unclear which forces dominate in this ecosystem. Our primary goal was to assess the extent to which a tundra food web was dominated by plant-herbivore or predator-prey interactions. Based on a 17-year (1993-2009) study of terrestrial wildlife on Bylot Island, Nunavut, Canada, we developed trophic mass balance models to address this question. Snow Geese were the dominant herbivores in this ecosystem, followed by two sympatric lemming species (brown and collared lemmings). Arctic foxes, weasels, and several species of birds of prey were the dominant predators. Results of our trophic models encompassing 19 functional groups showed that <10% of the annual primary production was consumed by herbivores in most years despite the presence of a large Snow Goose colony, but that 20-100% of the annual herbivore production was consumed by predators. The impact of herbivores on vegetation has also weakened over time, probably due to an increase in primary production. The impact of predators was highest on lemmings, intermediate on passerines, and lowest on geese and shorebirds, but it varied with lemming abundance. Predation of collared lemmings exceeded production in most years and may explain why this species remained at low density. In contrast, the predation rate on brown lemmings varied with prey density and may have contributed to the high-amplitude, periodic fluctuations in the abundance of this species. Our analysis provided little evidence that herbivores are limited by primary production on Bylot Island. In contrast, we measured strong predator-prey interactions, which supports the hypothesis that this food web is primarily controlled by top-down forces. The presence of allochthonous resources subsidizing top predators and the absence of large herbivores may partly explain the predominant role of predation in this low-productivity ecosystem.     

Assesment of the response of a shallow macrotidal estuary to changes in hydrological and wastewater inputs through numerical modelling

The aim of this study was to investigate the response to short-term changes in river freshwater discharges and in nutrients loadings (mainly from the treatment of urban wastewater), of the shallow macrotidal Urdaibai estuary (north of Spain), by using numerical tools. A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model and a water quality model were applied to the estuary, in order to better use it as a prediction tool in the study of the effects of variations in hydrodynamic conditions and in waste water inputs. The model was calibrated and verified using data measured under different hydrological conditions (spring and summer). A model calibration was carried out with field data measured during the summer, while the model validation was conducted for spring conditions. The calibration process allowed the model parameter definition, while the model validation permitted the verification of the calibrated parameters under different environmental conditions. The model results were in reasonable agreement with field measurements, in both the calibration and the validation phases. The model showed a significant decrease in phytoplankton concentration with river input increase. A study on the effects of nutrient input reduction from the Gernika Waste Water Treatment Plant (WWTP) was conducted. It showed a decrease in phytoplankton concentration with decreasing levels of nutrient discharge. This reduction was more pronounced in conjunction with the highest river discharge. In that case, a 50% decrease for the elimination of the WWTP discharge was observed.     

Past,present, and future of a freshwater fish metapopulation in a threatened landscape

It is well documented that hydropower plants can affect the dynamics of fish populations through landscape alterations and the creation of new barriers. Less emphasis has been placed on the examination of the genetic consequences for fish populations of the construction of dams. The relatively few studies that focus on genetics often do not consider colonization history and even fewer tend to use this information for conservation purposes. As a case study, we used a 3‐pronged approach to study the influence of historical processes, contemporary landscape features, and potential future anthropogenic changes in landscape on the genetic diversity of a fish metapopulation. Our goal was to identify the metapopulation's main attributes, detect priority areas for conservation, and assess the consequences of the construction of hydropower plants for the persistence of the metapopulation. We used microsatellite markers and coalescent approaches to examine historical colonization processes, traditional population genetics, and simulations of future populations under alternate scenarios of population size reduction and gene flow. Historical gene flow appeared to have declined relatively recently and contemporary populations appeared highly susceptible to changes in landscape. Gene flow is critical for population persistence. We found that hydropower plants could lead to a rapid reduction in number of alleles and to population extirpation 50–80 years after their construction. More generally, our 3‐pronged approach for the analyses of empirical genetic data can provide policy makers with information on the potential impacts of landscape changes and thus lead to more robust conservation efforts.     

Windows of change: temporal scale of analysis is decisive to detect ecosystem responses to climate change

Long-term ecological research has become a cornerstone of the scientific endeavour to better understand ecosystem responses to environmental change. This paper provides a perspective on how such research could be advanced. It emphasizes that a profound understanding of the mechanisms underlying these responses requires that records of ecologic processes be not only sufficiently long, but also collected at an appropriate temporal resolution. We base our argument on an overview of studies of climate impacts in limnic and marine ecosystems, suggesting that lakes and oceans respond to (short-term) weather conditions during critical time windows in the year. The observed response patterns are often time-lagged or driven by the crossing of thresholds in weather-related variables (such as water temperature and thermal stratification intensity). It becomes clear from the previous studies that average annual, seasonal or monthly climate data often fall short of characterizing the thermal dynamics that most organisms respond to. To illustrate such literature-based evidence using a concrete example, we compare 2?years of water temperature data from Müggelsee (Berlin, Germany) at multiple temporal scales (from hours to years). This comparison underlines the pitfalls of analysing data at resolutions not high enough to detect critical differences in environmental forcing. Current science initiatives that aim at improving the temporal resolution of long-term observatory data in aquatic systems will help to identify adequate timescales of analysis necessary for the understanding of ecosystem responses to climate change.     

Structure and function of a warm monomictic lake

Construction and simulation of a model of Lake Conway, Florida, U.S.A., provided a framework for defining major characteristics of this ecosystem. The relationships that are formalized in this model comprise a set of hypotheses about the nature of a warm monomictic lake. The data that were used to parameterize the model came primarily from literature estimates, although approximations of biomass levels were available from associated research conducted on the lake.Submersed macrophytes are a major biomass component in Lake Conway; simulation suggested that their role in nutrient recycling overshadows their importance in the grazing food chain. Phytoplankton biomass and degree of fluctuation are considerably lower than are observed in most cool temperate lakes, although simulated respiration and herbivory rates are closer to temperate values than tropical values. Simulated epipelic algae biomass varies an order of magnitude during the year, and this group appears to be a significant part of the food chain. Simulated zooplankton consumption and turnover rates are very high, in part because of the relatively small biomass per individual. Simulation of the model suggests that slightly more carbon is processed through the grazing food chain in Lake Conway than through the detritus food chain.     

Identifying forest ecosystem services through socio-ecological bundles: a case study from northern Jordan

This study aims to identify services provided by forest ecosystems based on locals’ perceptions in the northern part of Jordan. By better understanding preferences of locals and by understanding why they value certain services more heavily, policy-makers and planning managers can make more effective decisions regarding development and conservation. Three hundred respondents were interviewed in order to collect information about forest ecosystem services (ES). Data collection was conducted using a structured questionnaire regarding ES provided by three forest types situated in northern Jordan. ES trade-offs and socio-ecological bundles were identified by analyzing respondents’ socioeconomic demographics and preferences of forest ES through multivariate canonical corresponding analysis (CCA). The statistical analysis indicated that the socioeconomic factors and forest type have an effect on social preferences toward ES. Results displayed a clear trade-off between provisioning services and regulating and cultural services. CCA demonstrated that 73% of the variation in ES value is explained by social factors (i.e. education level, income level, and gender), while 26% of perception variation was attributable to categories of ES supplied by each forest ecosystem. These findings imply that involving people in the place-specific management of public forests using the ES approach gives managers a clearer understanding of the benefits people recognize and value, as well as those they either are not aware of or do not value. Such information is useful in forest management and in public outreach. Although direct policy applications are limited by the research’s nature, the paper provides a starting point for incorporating forest users’ voices into policy discussions and management design.     

Divergent effects of climate change on the egg-laying opportunity of species in cold and warm regions

Climate warming can substantially impact embryonic development and juvenile growth in oviparous species. Estimating the overall impacts of climate warming on oviparous reproduction is difficult because egg-laying events happen throughout the reproductive season. Successful egg laying requires the completion of embryonic development as well as hatching timing conducive to offspring survival and energy accumulation. We propose a new metric—egg-laying opportunity (EO)—to estimate the annual hours during which a clutch of freshly laid eggs yields surviving offspring that store sufficient energy for overwintering. We estimated the EO within the distribution of a model species, Sceloporus undulatus, under recent climate condition and a climate-warming scenario by combining microclimate data, developmental functions, and biophysical models. We predicted that EO will decline as the climate warms at 74.8% of 11,407 sites. Decreasing hatching success and offspring energy accounted for more lost EO hours (72.6% and 72.9%) than the occurrence of offspring heat stress (59.9%). Nesting deeper (at a depth of 12 cm) may be a more effective behavioral adjustment for retaining EO than using shadier (50% shade) nests because the former fully mitigated the decline of EO under the considered warming scenario at more sites (66.1%) than the latter (28.3%). We advocate for the use of EO in predicting the impacts of climate warming on oviparous animals because it encapsulates the integrative impacts of climate warming on all stages of reproductive life history.     

A tree and climate assessment tool for modelling ecosystem response to climate change

Understanding how vulnerable forest ecosystems are to climate change is a key requirement if sustainable forest management is to be achieved. Modelling the response of species in their regeneration niche to phenological and biophysical processes that are directly influenced by climate is one method for achieving this understanding. A model was developed to investigate species resilience and vulnerability to climate change within its fundamental-regeneration niche. The utility of the developed model, tree and climate assessment (TACA), was tested within the interior Douglas-fir ecosystem in south-central British Columbia. TACA modelled the current potential tree species composition of the ecosystem with high accuracy and modelled significant responses amongst tree species to climate change. The response of individual species suggests that the studied ecosystem could transition to a new ecosystem over the next 100 years. TACA showed that it can be an effective tool for identifying species resilience and vulnerability to changes in climate within the most sensitive stage of development, the regeneration phase. The TACA model was able to identify the degree of change in phenological and biophysical variables that control tree establishment, growth and persistence. The response to changes in one or more of these variables resulted in changes in the climatic suitability of the ecosystem for species and enabled a measure of vulnerability to be quantified. TACA could be useful to forest managers as a decision support tool for adaptation actions and by researchers interested in modelling stand dynamics under climate change.