洞庭湖水体异味物质及其与藻类和水质的关系

以洞庭湖水体中异味物质为研究对象,开展异味物质调查,并结合藻类结构、水质及其营养状况等因素,深入分析洞庭湖异味物质的来源和变化情况. 结果表明,DMS(dimethylsulfide,甲硫醚)、DMTS(dimethyltrisulfide,二甲基三硫醚)、β-cyclocitral(β-环柠檬醛)、MIB(2-methylisoborneol,二甲基异冰片)和GSM(geosmin,土嗅素)在全湖广泛存在,其最高质量浓度分别达到500.80、28.80、21.84、14.50和22.40 ng/L. 结合与藻类生物量的相关分析发现,直链藻、冠盘藻等硅藻可能是洞庭湖中DMS、DMTS和β-cyclocitral的重要来源,湖区土壤、沉积物中的微生物和死亡分解的藻类是MIB和GSM主要来源. 洞庭湖水体绝大部分处于中营养水平,其中东洞庭湖TLI(综合营养状态指数,为48.3)最高,南洞庭湖(为47.3)其次,西洞庭湖(为42.7)最低. 异味物质含量和水质的相关分析发现,异味物质质量浓度与TLI、水温、pH、ρ(DO)、ρ(TN)和ρ(COD_Mn)显著相关,说明水质对异味物质含量有重要影响.      

Microcystis aeruginosa/Pseudomonas pseudoalcaligenes interaction effects on off-flavors in algae/bacteria co-culture system under different temperatures

We conducted an experiment to study the interaction effects of Microcystis aeruginosa and Pseudomonas pseudoalcaligenes on off-flavors in an algae/bacteria co-culture system at three temperatures (24, 28 and 32°C). Gas chromatography–mass spectrometry was applied to measure off-flavor compounds dimethyl sulfide (DMS), dimethyl trisulfide (DMTS), 2-methylisoborneol, geosmin (GEO) and β-cyclocitral. During the lag phase of co-cultured M. aeruginosa (first 15 days), P. pseudoalcaligenes significantly increased the production of DMS, DMTS and β-cyclocitral at all three temperatures. In the exponential phase of co-cultured M. aeruginosa (after 15 days), M. aeruginosa became the main factor on off-flavors in the co-culture system, and β-cyclocitral turned to the highest off-flavor compound. These results also indicated that DMS, DMTS and β-cyclocitral were the main off-flavor compounds in our M. aeruginosa/P. pseudoalcaligenes co-culture system. Univariate analysis was applied to investigate the effects of M. aeruginosa and P. pseudoalcaligenes on the production of off-flavors. The results demonstrated that both M. aeruginosa and P. pseudoalcaligenes could increase the production of DMS and DMTS, while β-cyclocitral was mainly determined by M. aeruginosa. Our results also provide some insights into understanding the relationship between cyanobacteria and heterotrophic bacteria.     

太湖微囊藻毒素的时空分布特征

微囊藻毒素对水体危害严重,为了探究太湖中微囊藻毒素的变化规律及其主要环境影响因子,对太湖34个采样点进行了为期1 a(2011年11月—2012年10月)的监测与采样,分析了水体中ρ(MCs)(MCs为微囊藻毒素)〔包括ρ(TMC)(TMC为总藻毒素)、ρ(EMC)(EMC为胞外藻毒素)和ρ(IMC)(IMC为胞内藻毒素)〕,以及ρ(Chla)、蓝藻生物量、ρ(TN)、ρ(TP)、N/P〔ρ(TN)/ρ(TP)〕、pH、温度、透明度、电导率、ρ(DO)等水环境因子的变化特征,讨论了ρ(MCs)与各水环境因子之间的相关性. 结果表明:ρ(MCs)在太湖中呈现一定的规律性,在7—8月蓝藻爆发期,ρ(MCs)低于0.10 μg/L,之后逐渐升高,9月达到最高值(0.28 μg/L). 受地理位置和沉积环境等影响,太湖西北区MCs污染最严重,ρ(MCs)最大值为0.30 μg/L. 相关性分析结果表明,ρ(MCs)与ρ(Chla)、ρ(TN)、ρ(TP)、N/P显著相关,其中,ρ(MCs)与ρ(Chla)呈极显著正相关(P<0.01);ρ(IMC)和ρ(TMC)均与蓝藻生物量呈显著正相关(P<0.05),而ρ(EMC)与蓝藻生物量相关性不显著;ρ(IMC)和ρ(TMC)均与ρ(TN)呈极显著负相关(P<0.01),而ρ(EMC)与ρ(TN)呈显著负相关(P<0.05);ρ(MCs)与ρ(TP)呈显著正相关,而与N/P呈显著负相关(P<0.05).      

太湖春季和秋季浮游植物的光合作用活性

应用Phyto-PAM浮游植物荧光仪对2012年太湖浮游植物群落光合作用活性的时空分布进行测定. 结果表明:春季蓝藻、绿藻和硅/甲藻的F_v/F_m(最大光量子产量)分别为0.35~0.49、0.34~0.68和0.09~0.56;秋季则分别为0.34~0.53、0.55~0.68和0.28~0.61. 春季蓝藻、绿藻和硅/甲藻的NPQ(非光化学淬灭)分别为0.012~0.165、0.085~0.201和0.104~0.281,秋季则分别为0.035~0.263、0.052~0.118和0.048~0.301. RLC(快速光响应曲线)的特征参数表明,太湖浮游植物群落光能利用效率和光合作用速率具有显著时空差异. 相关分析表明,绿藻和硅/甲藻的光合作用活性与环境因子没有显著相关性;而蓝藻的F_v/F_m与RLC的特征参数呈显著正相关,与ρ(Chla)呈显著正相关(P<0.05,R=0.49),与SD(透明度)呈极显著负相关(P<0.01,R=-0.56),说明太湖蓝藻的光合作用活性与富营养化水平具有一致性. 从空间分布来看,草型湖区蓝藻的光合作用活性和ρ(Chla)均显著低于藻型湖区,表明水草能抑制蓝藻的光合作用活性和生长,进而降低蓝藻水华强度.      

Influence of sunlight on the proliferation of cyanobacterial blooms and its potential applications in Lake Taihu, China

To learn the relationship between sunlight intensity and cyanobacterial proliferations for the further control of the heavy blooms, enclosure experiment were conducted in Meiliang Bay, Lake Taihu by regulating the natural light intensities with different shading ratio （0% （full sunlight）, 10%, 25%, 50% and 75% of original natural sunlight intensities） from September to November in 2010. The results indicated that phytoplankton biomass （mean） decreased significantly when the shading ratios reached 50% or more. Higher shading ratios （e.g. 75%） were very efficient in controlling the average and total cyanobacterialbloom biomass, while 50% shading ratio was proven very effective either in controlling the peak value of phytoplankton biomass or postponing the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Talhu. In addition, phytoplankton composition and photosynthesis efficiency were also affected by altering the shading ratios, and in turn, they might also act on phytoplankton growth. Based on the results from the present study, intermediate shading strategies such as regulation of water level or turbidity through the hydrology regulations would probably be an effective and efficient method in controlling cyanobacterial blooms in large and shallow lakes.     

太湖水华期营养盐空间分异特征与赋存量估算

基于2013年7月的空间高密度采样数据,对太湖水华期水体营养盐进行了空间分异特征分析及赋存量估算,探讨了大型浅水湖泊不同生态类型湖区水华与营养盐的相关关系及样点设置的代表性.结果发现,水华期太湖水体营养盐及叶绿素a浓度(CHL)总体上均呈现由西北向东南降低的趋势;氮主要以溶解态存在,占总氮(TN)的76.28%,磷主要以颗粒态赋存,占总磷(TP)的66.38%.采用主成分分析和聚类分析,可以将采样点分为相互之间具有显著性差异的4个区域:第一区位于西北湖区,代表水华严重的重富营养湖区;第二区主要包括梅梁湾及南太湖的入湖河口一带湖区,代表水华和富营养化程度都相对中等的湖区;第三区包括湖心区和西南湖区,代表中等污染但水华频现湖区;第四区包括贡湖湾、胥口湾和东太湖等其他区域,代表水华影响较弱、水质较好湖区.分区统计分析表明,不同湖区影响浮游藻类生长的因子也不同:从全湖来看,与CHL显著相关的营养盐指标为TP、TN、溶解性总氮(TDN)和硝态氮(NO-3-N),而在第一区则为TP和TDN,第二区为TN和TDN,第三区为TP、磷酸盐(PO3-4-P)和TDN,第四区为PO3-4-P、溶解性总磷(TDP)和亚硝酸盐(NO-2-N).基于空间插值获得调查期间太湖水体TN、TDN、TP和TDP的赋存量分别为12 800、9 800、445和150 t.研究表明,作为一个大型浅水湖泊,因蓝藻水华空间迁移积聚特征和生态类型异化等特征,太湖水华期的营养盐具有高度空间异质性,对于此类大型浅水湖泊的监测与评价,应当考虑点位的合理布设及结果的恰当解读,避免因监测布点和统计方法不当而以偏概全.     

风场对太湖梅梁湾水华及营养盐空间分布的影响

为了解风场对湖泊表层蓝藻水华及营养盐空间分布的影响,以太湖梅梁湾为例,在蓝藻水华期间开展表层粒子漂流实验,研究风场对水体表层物质的推移规律,并开展全水域水体表、中、底层密集布点采样,测定水体藻类叶绿素a、氮、磷、高锰酸盐指数、溶解性有机碳、溶解氧等水质指标,探讨风场驱动下大型浅水湖泊蓝藻水华及营养盐时空分布特征.结果表明,在平均风速1. 9 m·s~(-1)和2. 3 m·s~(-1)的情况下,表层粒子的平均漂移速度分别为3. 0 cm·s~(-1)和5. 0 cm·s~(-1);风场对表层水体蓝藻水华的空间分布具有决定性影响,能够引起蓝藻水华在空间上较高的异质性;蓝藻水华物质的空间变化对水体颗粒态氮、磷、有机质和溶解氧等水质指标产生较大影响,表、中、底层颗粒态氮和磷、高锰酸盐指数与叶绿素a浓度的空间分布一致,而溶解态氮、磷浓度及溶解性有机碳的分布与叶绿素a浓度分布不尽相同;蓝藻水华物质在风场作用下的再分配对水体溶解氧产生复杂的影响,底层溶解氧平均值低于表层与中层,可能对沉积物营养盐释放产生影响;依据高密度布点调查估算,仅表层20 cm,梅梁湾水域的蓝藻干物质赋存量约396 t,远大于蓝藻打捞工程的清除量.研究表明,鉴于水华期间风场作用下对蓝藻水华漂移的巨大影响,在湖泊水质调查采样方法及数据分析时应充分考虑蓝藻水华漂移的影响因素;防控湖泛灾害的蓝藻打捞作业对湖体蓝藻水华赋存量的清除能力有限,只能对岸边带湖泛的预防产生影响.     

Isolation, identification and characterization of an algicidal bacterium from Lake Taihu and preliminary studies on its algicidal compounds

In an effort to identify a bio-agent capable of controlling cyanobacterial blooms, we isolated a bacterial strain, A27, which exhibited strong algicidal activity against the dominant bloom-forming species of Microcystis aeruginosa in Lake Taihu. Based on 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis, this strain belongs to the genus Exiguobacterium. This is the first report of an algicidal bacterial strain belonging to the genus Exiguobacterium. Strain A27 exhibited algicidal activity against a broad range of cyanobacteria, but elicited little or no algicidal activity against the two green algal strains tested. The algicidal activity of strain A27 was shown to be dependent on the density of the bacteria and to have a threshold density of 1.5× 10⁶ CFU/mL. Our data also showed that the algicidal activity of strain A27 depended on different growth stages of Microcystis aeruginosa (exponential ≈ lag phase > early stationary) rather than that of the bacterium itself. Our results also suggested the algicidal activity of strain A27 occurred via the production of extracellular algicidal compounds. Investigation of the algicidal compounds revealed that there were at least two different algicidal compounds produced by strain A27. These results indicated that strain A27 has great potential for use in the control of outbreaks of cyanobacterial blooms in Lake Taihu.     

富营养化水体中黑水团的吸收及反射特性分析

对黑水团水体光学特性进行研究,是利用遥感技术监测和评估黑水团事件的前提.针对2015年7月在太湖发生的黑水团现象,采集了太湖黑水团区(区域一)、蓝藻水华区(区域二)、清水区(区域三)共36个水样,对这3个区域的水体遥感反射率以及吸收特性进行对比分析.结果表明:1区域一水体的总颗粒物、色素颗粒物和非色素颗粒物吸收系数比区域二、区域三高出1~2倍,在400~500 nm之间,区域一CDOM吸收系数相比另外两个区域的水体高出2倍左右.导致黑水团区域水体具有很低的遥感反射率,被人眼感知时呈现为黑色;2黑水团区域水体M值低于滇池、巢湖和太湖的M值变化范围,说明黑水团中CDOM的腐殖酸含量较高.此外,叶绿素a浓度与CDOM在350 nm处吸收系数之间具有很好的相关性,表明蓝藻的降解可能是黑水团中CDOM的一个主要来源;3在380 nm之后,黑水团区域的水体总吸收以色素颗粒物占主导,但在短波350~380 nm处,CDOM对总吸收的贡献率高于色素颗粒物和非色素颗粒物.     

基于GAM模型的太湖叶绿素a含量与环境因子相关性分析

随着富营养化程度的加剧,太湖近30年来水华频发.为了探讨太湖西部沿岸水华暴发与环境因子的关系,于2017年4月1-18日（当地历年蓝藻暴发早期）在太湖西部沿岸进行了密集原位调查.共采集样品72个,测定了水温、溶解氧、各形态氮、磷营养盐浓度以及风速等环境指标,并利用GAM（广义相加模型）定量分析了叶绿素a含量与各环境因子间的关系.结果表明:①叶绿素a含量波动幅度较大（17.10~795.89 mg/m3）,太湖西部沿岸带有明显的蓝藻水华暴发现象.②水温、风速以及硝态氮浓度与叶绿素a含量的变化显著相关（P<0.05）,各环境因子按其对叶绿素a含量变化的解释率排序为水温>风速>硝态氮浓度.其中水温是影响叶绿素a含量最为重要的环境因子,叶绿素a含量随着水温的升高呈现明显上升趋势.风速也是影响叶绿素a含量的关键因子之一,较低的风速（<3 m/s）有利于蓝藻的漂移集聚从而形成水华,引起叶绿素a含量的升高.研究显示,GAM模型较好地解释了叶绿素a的含量变化,模型总体解释度达到70.6%,可为太湖西部沿岸蓝藻水华早期的预测预警提供一定的基础支撑.      

Beyond hypoxia：Occurrence and characteristics of black blooms due to the decomposition of the submerged plant Potamogeton crispus in a shallow lake

Organic matter-induced black blooms(hypoxia and an offensive odor) are a serious ecosystem disasters that have occurred in some large eutrophic shallow lakes in China. In this study, we investigated two separate black blooms that were induced by Potamogeton crispus in Lake Taihu, China. The main physical and chemical characteristics, including color- and odor-related substances, of the black blooms were analyzed. The black blooms were characterized by low dissolved oxygen concentration(close to 0 mg/L), low oxidation-reduction potential, and relatively low pH of overlying water. Notably higher Fe2+and∑S2-were found in the black-bloom waters than in waters not affected by black blooms. The black color of the water may be attributable to the high concentration of these elements, as black FeS was considered to be the main substance causing the black color of blooms in freshwater lakes. Volatile organic sulfur compounds, including dimethyl sulfide, dimethyl disulfide, and dimethyl trisulfide, were very abundant in the black-bloom waters. The massive anoxic degradation of dead Potamogeton crispus plants released dimethyl sulfide, dimethyl disulfide, and dimethyl trisulfide, which were the main odor-causing compounds in the black blooms. The black blooms also induced an increase in ammonium nitrogen and soluble reactive phosphorus levels in the overlying waters. This extreme phenomenon not only heavily influenced the original lake ecosystem but also greatly changed the cycling of Fe, S, and nutrients in the water column.     

Decrease of NH4+-N by bacterioplankton accelerated the removal of cyanobacterial blooms in aerated aquatic ecosystem

We used aerated systems to assess the influence of the bacterioplankton community on cyanobacterial blooms in algae/post-bloom of Lake Taihu, China. Bacterioplankton community diversity was evaluated by polymerase chain reaction-denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis(PCR-DGGE) fingerprinting. Chemical analysis and nitrogen dynamic changes illustrated that NH4+-N was nitrified to NO2-N and NO3-N by bacterioplankton. Finally, NH4+-N was exhausted and NO3-N was denitrified to NO2-N, while the accumulation of NO2-N indicated that bacterioplankton with completely aerobic denitrification ability were lacking in the water samples collected from Lake Taihu. We suggested that adding completely aerobic denitrification bacteria(to denitrify NO2-N to N2)would improve the water quality. PCR-DGGE and sequencing results showed that more than 1/3 of the bacterial species were associated with the removal of nitrogen, and Acidovorax temperans was the dominant one. PCR-DGGE, variation of nitrogen, removal efciencies of chlorophyll-a and canonical correspondence analysis indicated that the bacterioplankton significantly influenced the physiological and biochemical changes of cyanobacteria. Additionally, the unweighted pair-group method with arithmetic means revealed there was no obvious harm to the microecosystem from aeration. The present study demonstrated that bacterioplankton can play crucial roles in aerated ecosystems, which could control the impact of cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophicated fresh water systems.     

Spatial heterogeneity of cyanobacterial communities and genetic variation of Microcystis populations within large, shallow eutrophic lakes (Lake Taihu and Lake Chaohu, China)

Cyanobacteria, specifically Microcystis, usually form massive blooms in eutrophic freshwater lakes. Cyanobacterial samples were collected from eight sites of both Lake Taihu and Lake Chaohu in late summer to determine the diversity and distribution pattern of cyanobacteria and Microcystis in large, shallow, entropic lakes with significant spatial heterogeneity and long-term Microcystis bloom. Molecular methods based on denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis and clone library analysis were used. A similar heterogeneous distribution pattern of cyanobacteria in both lakes was observed. Most parts of these two lakes with high trophic level were dominated by Microcystis. However, in the regions with low trophic levels as well as low concentrations of chlorophyll a, Synechococcus occupied a considerable percentage. Different morphospecies and genotypes dominated the bloom-forming Microcystis populations in these two lakes. Microcystis viridis and Microcystis novacekii were dominant in Lake Chaohu, whereas Microcystis flos-aquae was dominant in Lake Taihu. Only 2 of the13 Microcystis operational taxonomic units were shared between these two lakes. Analysis of molecular variance based on 16S to 23S internal transcribed spacer sequences indicated the significant genetic differentiation of Microcystis between these two lakes (F_st = 0.19, p < 0.001). However, only 19.46% of the genetic variability was explained by the population variation between lakes, whereas most (80.54%) of the genetic variability occurred within the lakes. Phylogenetic analysis revealed no phylogeographic structure of Microcystis population in these two lakes, as illustrated by their cosmopolitan nature. Our results revealed that spatial heterogeneity within lakes has more impact on the cyanobacterial diversity than geographical isolation in a local scale.     

结合卫星遥感技术的太湖蓝藻水华形成风场特征

为进一步了解太湖蓝藻水华形成和分布与近地面风场的关系,利用太湖湖面及周边地区2003~2013年气象与卫星观测数据分析、并应用WRF3.5.1数值模型模拟,发现太湖蓝藻水华主要出现在卫星观测时刻前6h平均风速为0.5~3.4 m/s的区间,占比达94.7%;蓝藻水华面积总体上随风速增大而减小,大范围蓝藻水华主要出现在前6h平均风速≤2 m/s的情形下,占比达89%;风向则主要影响蓝藻水华在太湖的空间分布格局.结果表明局地风场对于太湖蓝藻水华的形成、输移和分布具有重要作用.     

藻源型湖泛发生过程水色变化规律

利用Y-型沉积物再悬浮发生模拟装置,模拟湖泛发生过程,分析水体吸收特性变化特征;同时,利用Hydrolight和CIE颜色匹配函数模拟水体颜色,分析湖泛水色变化规律.结果表明:在湖泛发生过程中,可溶性有色物质(CDOM)浓度(ag)不断增大,无机颗粒物浓度及吸收(ad)总体呈减小的趋势,而浮游植物色素浓度及吸收(aph)随时间变化不规律;基于Hydrolight模拟湖泛水体,离水辐亮度(Lw)和遥感反射比(Rrs)均随时间不断变小;3)另外,随SPIM或ag(443)的变大,水体颜色逐渐由绿色变为棕色.当SPIM增至40mg/L时,水体呈现棕色;当ag(443)达到10m-1时,水体呈现红棕色.通过研究湖泛发生过程水体光学特性和水色变化规律,有助于构建高精度的湖泛遥感监测模型.     

蓝藻腐解对水中营养盐影响的模拟研究

为研究不同密度藻类腐解过程对水体营养盐再分配的影响,在太湖藻类聚集区采集沉积物柱状样进行室内加藻模拟实验,共设置B、C、D 3组加藻密度分别为2500、7500和15000 g·m-2的处理组,监测蓝藻腐解过程中上覆水体的溶解氧(DO)、氧化还原电位(Eh)、氨氮(NH_4~+-N)、总氮(TN)及总磷(TP)等理化指标的变化情况.结果表明,蓝藻腐解会使水体DO和Eh迅速下降,最终分别维持在0.1 mg·L~(-1)左右和-300~-400 mV之间,水体处于厌氧强还原状态;同时,厌氧强还原条件又加速了蓝藻死亡腐解过程,促进了藻体营养盐向上覆水的扩散,B、C、D组营养盐含量分别于实验第6、第10和第14 d达到峰值,TN平均增长速率分别为26.67、43.41和67.82 mg·L~(-1)·d~(-1),TP平均增长速率分别为3.30、5.53和8.35 mg·L~(-1)·d~(-1),NH_4~+-N浓度最大值分别为对照组的7、51、125倍,水体形成明显的氮磷污染负荷,且蓝藻衰亡导致的上覆水TN浓度升高持续时间较TP浓度升高持续时间要长.研究表明,蓝藻水华腐解过程中向上覆水体释放了大量的有机物和可溶性营养盐,降低了水体透明度,加剧了水体富营养化状况,诱发湖泛发生,也为蓝藻水华再次爆发提供了物质基础.     

Decomposition and phosphorus release from four di erent size fractions of Microcystis spp. taken from Lake Taihu, China

Decomposition of Microcystis is accompanied by the release of phosphorus, during bacteria play an important role. A series of experiments were undertaken to evaluate the e ect of bacteria on the decomposition of Microcystis taken from Lake Taihu, China, a lake that is su ering from dense Microcystis blooms. The 16 experiments involved four size fractions of colonial Microcystis with or without the addition of lake sediment and Gram-negative bacterial inhibitor NaN3. The highest decomposition rates were recorded for the smallest size Microcystis fraction (< 25 m) with the addition of the sediment. The lowest decomposition rates were recorded for the smallest Microcystis fraction without the sediment, but with the addition of Gram-negative bacterial inhibitor NaN3. The higher decomposition rates in the treatments with NaN3 and sediment suggest that Gram-positive bacteria in the sediment are important for the decomposition process. Additionally, higher concentrations of total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) in the treatments with NaN3 suggest that more phosphorus accumulates in the Gram-negative bacterial cells around the colony, which may be an important source of phosphorus for Microcystis cells. In the no-sediment treatments, the ratios of TDP concentration to initial TP concentration were 64%–82%. The results of this experiment suggest that both Gram-negative and Gram-positive bacteria play an important role in the decomposition of Microcystis cells and the release of phosphorus from Microcystis colonies.     

太湖水体Chl-a预测模型ARIMA的构建及应用优化

叶绿素a（Chl-a）是湖泊浮游植物生物量的重要指标,其含量能反映水中浮游植物的丰度和变化规律.以1999年12月~2019年8月太湖水体Chl-a和环境因子的逐月监测数据为基础,运用主成分分析方法探讨了Chl-a与环境因子的关系,据此建立了Chl-a与主要环境因素之间的多元线性逐步回归模型及自回归综合移动平均模型（ARIMA）.结果表明：①太湖Chl-a浓度存在着明显的季节变化,且总体处于上升趋势.总磷（TP）、高锰酸盐指数、月均气温（MAT）和月度降雨量（MR）与Chl-a浓度存在较好的变化同步性,总氮（TN）和氨氮（NH₄⁺-N）则表现出明显的滞后性.②主成分分析结果表明,太湖水体藻类暴发条件不仅仅是基于N和P等限制性因素,而是发展为TN、NH₄⁺-N、TP和高锰酸盐指数、MR和MAT等多元因素的综合影响.③两种模型经验证比较,基于1999~2019年逐月资料建立的Chl-a浓度的ARIMA模型模拟效果和预测精度明显优于所建立的多元线性逐步回归模型,特别是在考虑主要环境因素作为自变量及优化自变量取值情况下其预测效果得到进一步提升.建立的ARIMA（0,1,1）（0,1,1）模型将有助于太湖藻类暴发的预报和预警,并为及时有效地安排水资源调度及调控等水环境管理措施提供依据.     

微囊藻水华对水体中氮转化及微生物的影响

氮是水生态系统初级生产力的限制性生源要素,认识水体中氮的转化特征有利于调控和削减水体中过量的氮,对维持水生态健康十分重要.氨氧化细菌、氨氧化古菌以及反硝化细菌在氮循环中发挥关键作用.通过在室内构建微宇宙模拟蓝藻水华的重复暴发,发现在蓝藻水华暴发和衰亡短期内,TN、氨氮、TOC浓度快速升高和DO急剧降低,但后期逐渐得到恢复,且水体中的TN在高浓度藻存在下迅速降低.在蓝藻水华暴发和衰亡过程中,太湖水体中氨氧化菌演化为AOB占优势,氨氧化功能活性逐渐恢复,有利于水体中氨氮的去除.蓝藻水华暴发促进太湖水体中含nir S和nir K基因反硝化菌的数量增加至起始的100倍左右,从而促进水体中总氮的去除.     

宜兴市殷村港叶绿素a与影响因子的多元分析

根据2011年1月—2015年12月殷村港水体中叶绿素a(Chl-a)及溶解氧、氨氮、总磷、总氮和水温等环境因子的监测数据,通过Pearson相关分析分析了叶绿素a浓度与水质指标、环境因子之间的相关性,并确定了影响因子;通过多元回归分析模型,建立了叶绿素a浓度和影响因子之间的相关性,实现叶绿素a浓度的预测,多元回归方程的复相关系数R都较高,均在0.8以上。多元回归模型能够较好地预测叶绿素a的浓度和走向趋势,对蓝藻水华的爆发提供参考。