Predictive modeling of effects under global change

The status of computer simulation models from around the world for evaluating the possible ecological, environmental, and societal consequences of global change is presented in this paper. In addition, a brief synopsis of the state of the science of these impacts is included. Issues considered include future changes in climate and patterns of land use for societal needs. Models discussed relate to vegetation (e.g. crop), soil, bio-geochemistry, water, and wildlife responses to conventional, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation. Also described are models of these responses, alone and interactively, to increased CO(2), other air pollutants and UV-B radiation, as the state of the science allows. Further, models of land-use change are included. Additionally, global multiple sector models of environment, natural resources, human population dynamics, economics, energy, and political relations are reviewed for integrated impact assessment. To the extent available, information on computer software and hardware requirements is presented for the various models. The paper concludes with comments about using these technologies as they relate to ecological risk assessment for policy decision analysis. Such an effort is hampered by considerable uncertainties with the output of existing models, because of the uncertainties associated with input data and the definitions of their dose-response relationships. The concluding suggestions point the direction for new developments in modeling and analyses that are needed for the 21st century.     

Defense and avoidance of ozone under global change

The level II approach of the critical loads concept adopted by the UNECE aims at a flux based evaluation and takes into account environmental factors governing stomatal conductance. These factors will probably be affected by global change. The flux concept predicts that a decrease in stomatal conductance would protect trees from air pollution effects by decreasing uptake. However, experimental evidence is inconclusive. Numerous results suggest that pollutants and factors subject to global change (drought, CO(2)) may interact and even exacerbate effects, probably because antioxidative defense systems are involved in both, defense against pollutant effects and protection from natural stress. An effective pollutant dose, which is weighted by physiological defense capacity, would better predict such effects. In this review paper we argue that the flux-based approach is imperfect, because global change effects may also modify the physiological susceptibility to ozone. Instead, a flux concept weighted by defense capacity should be tested.     

Response and potential of agroforestry crops under global change

The use of agroforestry crops is a promising tool for reducing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration through fossil fuel substitution. In particular, plantations characterised by high yields such as short rotation forestry (SRF) are becoming popular worldwide for biomass production and their role acknowledged in the Kyoto Protocol. While their contribution to climate change mitigation is being investigated, the impact of climate change itself on growth and productivity of these plantations needs particular attention, since their management might need to be modified accordingly. Besides the benefits deriving from the establishment of millions of hectares of these plantations, there is a risk of increased release into the atmosphere of volatile organic compounds (VOC) emitted in large amounts by most of the species commonly used. These hydrocarbons are known to play a crucial role in tropospheric ozone formation. This might represent a negative feedback, especially in regions already characterized by elevated ozone level.     

The law, agency and global climate change

Consideration of policy for addressing global climate change must start with a recognition of the conflicting interests of the industrialised and the developing nations. Effective resource management regimes require a structure of incentives that will induce nations with disparate interests to cooperate and to resist temptations to defect from international agreements. Agency theory offers insights as to how such resource management regimes might be sustained. Industrialised nations must be prepared to offer inducements to agrarian nations to encourage the maintenance of tropical biomass. Moreover, technical assistance to encourage the development of technologies that are efficient in the use of carbon fuels is also essential.     

Effect of global climatic change on carbonation progress of concrete

In the recent years, global warming has dramatically increased the atmospheric carbon-dioxide (CO₂) concentration and temperature. As a consequence of this, carbonation has become one of the most critical durability issues for concrete structures in urban environment.In this study, the climate scenario IS92a recommended by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is used for evaluating the effect of CO₂ concentration on carbonation of concrete. A modified mathematical equation, based on Fick's 1st law of diffusion, is used to evaluate CO₂ diffusion coefficient of concrete. The required cover depth of concrete is estimated by using the applicative methods of reliability and stochastic concepts to take microclimatic conditions into consideration.The tolerance of cover depth should be considered in order to prevent carbonation-induced corrosion. From the relationship between the weight loss of reinforcement and corrosion current density for a given time, the tolerance of cover depth to prevent carbonation-induced corrosion is suggested. It was observed that corrosion occurs when the distance between carbonation front and reinforcement bar surface (the uncarbonated depth) is <5 mm.     

RETRACTED ARTICLE: The global inequalities and climate change

Environmental Science and Pollution Research -     

Sensitivity of tropospheric oxidants to global chemical and climate change

A photochemical model has been used to quantify the sensitivity of the tropospheric oxidants O₃ and OH to changes in CH₄, CO and NO emissions and to perturbations in climate and stratospheric chemistry. Coefficients of the form ∂1n[O₃]/∂1n[X] and ∂1n[OH]/∂1n[X], where [X] = flux of CH₄, CO, NO; stratospheric O₃ and H₂O have been calculated for a number of “chemically coherent” regions (e.g. nonpolluted continental, nonpolluted marine, urban) at low and middle latitudes. Sensitivities in O₃ and OH vary with regional emissions patterns and are nonlinear within a given region as [X] changes. In most cases increasing CH₄ and CO emissions will suppress OH (negative coefficients) and increase O₃ (positive coefficients) except in areas where NO and O₃ influenced by pollution are sufficient to increase OH. Stratospheric O₃ depletion will tend to decrease O₃ (except in high NO_x areas) and increase OH through enhanced u.v. photolysis. Increased levels of water vapor (one possible outcome of a global warming) will also decrease O₃ and increase OH. We conclude that in most regions, NO, CO and CH₄ emission increases will suppress OH and increase O₃, but these trends may be opposed by stratospheric O₃ depletion and climate change. A regional survey of OH and O₃ levels suggests that the tropics have a pivotal role in determining the earth's future oxidizing capacity.     

Long series relationships between global interannual CO2 increment and climate: evidence for stability and change in role of the tropical and boreal-temperate zones

Interannual variability in global CO₂ increment (averaged from the Mauna Loa and South Pole Stations) shows certain strong spatial relationships to both tropical and temperate temperatures. There is a fairly strong positive year-round correlation between tropical mean annual temperatures (leading by 4 months) and annual CO₂ throughout the time series since 1960, agreeing with the generally held view that the tropics play a major role in determining inter-annual variability in CO₂ increment, with a major CO₂ pulse following a warm year in the tropics. This ‘almost no lag’ climatic response is very strong during winter and relatively stable in time. However, the correlation with tropical temperature appears to have weakened in the first years of the 1990s in correspondence of the Pinatubo eruption and the positive phase of the AO/NAO. A secondary concurrent temperature signal is linked to summer variations of north temperate belt. Northern summer temperatures in the region 30–60 °N—and especially in the land area corresponding to the central east USA—have become relatively more closely correlated with CO₂ increment. This trend has become increasingly stronger in recent years, suggesting an increasing role for growing season processes in the northern midlatitudes in affecting global CO₂ increment. Once non-lagged annual tropical temperature variations are accounted for, terrestrial ecosystems, especially the temperate-boreal biomes, also show a coherent large scale lagged response. This involves an inverse response to annual temperature of preceding years centered at around 2 years before. This lagged response is most likely linked to internal biogeochemical cycles, in particular N cycling. During the study period north boreal ecosystems show a strengthening of the lagged correlation with temperature in recent years, while the lagged correlation with areas of tropical ecosystems has weakened. Residuals from a multiple correlations based on these climatic signals are directly correlated with SO, confirming an additional important role of upwelling in interannual variability of CO₂ increment. Cooler summers following the Pinatubo eruption and the possible influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO/AO) are discussed as factors responsible for the shift in the relative importance of different regions over time during the series of data.     

Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrogen oxides (NO_x), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr^?1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000–2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ～55 mW m^?2 (23–87 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005–78 mW m^?2 (38–139 mW m^?2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2–14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7–3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0–4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4–4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO₂ emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.     

Atmospheric measurements of the halogenated hydrocarbons involved in global change phenomena

Chlorofluorocarbons and their replacement compounds are anthropogenic compounds of great environmental concern. For this reason monitoring their atmospheric mixing ratios on a worldwide scale is recommended. An analytical methodology for the simultaneous determination of selected chlorofluorocarbons and their replacement compounds has recently been developed. This methodology was applied in the analysis of actual air samples collected in remote and semi-remote areas located in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. The concentration levels measured in the air samples collected in the two hemispheres are reported.     

Time series analysis of ambient air pollution effects on daily mortality

Although the growths of ambient pollutants have been attracting public concern, the characteristic of the associations between air pollutants and mortality remains elusive. Time series analysis with a generalized additive model was performed to estimate the associations between ambient air pollutants and mortality outcomes in Shenzhen City for the period of 2012–2014. The results showed that nitrogen dioxide (NO₂)-induced excess risks (ER) of total non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality were significantly increased (6.05% (95% CI 3.38%, 8.78%); 6.88% (95% CI 2.98%, 10.93%), respectively) in interquartile range (IQR) increase analysis. Also, these associations were strengthened after adjusting for other pollutants. Moreover, similar associations were estimated for sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of <10 μm (PM₁₀), and total non-accidental mortality. There were significant higher ERs of associations between PM₁₀ and mortality for men than women; while there were significant higher ERs of associations between PM₁₀/NO₂ and mortality for elders (65 or elder) than youngers (64 or younger). Season analyses showed that associations between NO₂ and total non-accidental mortality were more pronounced in hot seasons than in warm seasons. Taken together, NO₂ was positively associated with total non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality in Shenzhen even when the concentrations were below the ambient air quality standard. Policy measures should aim at reducing residents’ exposure to anthropogenic NO₂ emissions.     

Global networking for assessment of impacts of global change on plant pests

Global change encompasses changes in atmospheric composition, climate and climate variability, and land cover and land use. The occurrence of these changes and their interactive effects on biological systems are worldwide; thus, an effective global change research and impact assessment program must be based on international and interdisciplinary research and communication. With this in mind, several collaborative research networks with a focus on global change have been established in the biological sciences. They include the Global Change and Terrestrial Ecosystems (GCTE) Core Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) which aims to predict the effects of global change on terrestrial ecosystems, including agriculture and production forestry. Because of the importance of plant pests (arthropods, microbial pathogens, weeds) as yield-reducing factors in agriculture and as early indicators of global change, GCTE initiated a network Activity on "Global Change Impacts on Pests, Diseases and Weeds" with the overall goal of developing a predictive capability for impact assessment and adaptation. The network's specific objectives, contributing research projects, initial results and future challenges are discussed.     

The use of ambient data to corroborate analyses of ozone control strategies

Data from environmental-chamber studies and photochemical box-model simulations were used to evaluate and revise a method for developing a qualitative understanding of the sensitivity of ozone formation at a particular time and place to changes in concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen (NO_x). The revised method requires measurements of ozone, NO, and either NO_x or NO_y. The sensitivities of the method to biases in measurements were evaluated. The method potentially can be used for qualitative assessment of VOC versus NO_x limitation, comparison with the predictions of grid-based photochemical air-quality models, and evaluation of trends over time in the relative effectiveness of VOC versus NO_x controls.     

Atmospheric composition change research: Time to go post-normal?

For more than two decades a number of frameworks for scientific knowledge production are being proposed by science and technology researchers. They all advocate an extended involvement of non-specialists, in particular when it comes to knowledge production applicable to practical societal problems. We look to what extent these new frameworks have taken ground within a particular research community: the ACCENT Network of Excellence which coordinates European atmospheric chemistry and physics research applicable to air pollution and climate change. We did so by stimulating a debate through a “blog”, a survey and in-depth interviews with ACCENT scientists about the interaction between science, policy making and civil society, to which a great deal of ACCENT member contributed in writing or verbally. Most of them had interactions with policy makers and/or the general public, and they generally believe that interactions with spheres other than the scientific are needed. While such interactions give personal insight and satisfaction, they seem to have little impact on the goals and the practice of the scientific work itself. Extended frameworks of science production that go beyond the disciplinary mode seem to emerge at the level of individual scientists, yet they still need to find their way to the level of scientific project management. In this paper we discuss the justifications and barriers to implement a higher degree of extended knowledge integration in applied science projects such as ACCENT. It is felt that the community of atmospheric chemists and physicists is mature for such an implementation and recommendations are given to help and make this happen.     

Analysis and prediction of global climate temperature change based on multiforced observational statistics

The response of the climate system to increasing greenhouse gases was simulated by a number of climate model projections. There is an urgent need to verify or falsify these projections against observational climate data. Therefore, in this contribution, surface air temperature data are considered covering on a global average the period 1861-1990 and on a northern hemisphere average 1670-1990 (including proxy data). Based on a multiple correlation and coherence analysis a regression model is evaluated which is simultaneously forced by the observed or reconstructed atmospheric CO(2) or equivalent CO(2) concentration increase, volcanic activity, solar variations, and the ENSO (El Ni?o/southern oscillation) mechanism including phase shifts between cause and effect. This model reveals a greenhouse-gas-induced mean global temperature rise of 0.6-0.8 K since preindustrial time (c. 1800-1990). Following the IPCC business-as-usual scenario (trend extrapolation) this would lead to a hypothetical 3.8 K temperature rise in 2100 (best estimate, uncertainty + 0.7/-0.4 K compared to the 1985 value.     

Water sustainability: reforming water management in new global era of climate change

The National Seminar on Sustainable Water Resource Management in Era of Changing Climate (NSWRM-2014) on 10–11 January 2014 organised by the Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development and Environmental Science and Technology, Banaras Hindu University, witnessed the presence of experts from environmentalists, industrialists and experts on water resources and its management. The deliberations and scientific discussions led to the conclusion that it is not just the resource but the natural capacity to sustain it that requires monitoring, understanding and stewardship. The focus of governance in India needs to move at a faster pace from conventional methods of sector-based water management to more integrated approach for sustainable water resource management. It is more of the people participation that is the future key towards sustainable water resource management in India.     

Atmospheric nitrous oxide: patterns of global change during recent decades and centuries

Data from weekly global measurements of nitrous oxide from 1981 to the end of 1996 are presented. The results show that there is more N2O in the northern hemisphere by about 0.7 +/- 0.04 ppbv, and the Arctic to Antarctic difference is about 1.2 +/- 0.1 ppbv. Concentrations at locations influenced by continental air are higher than at marine sites, showing the existence of large land-based emissions. For the period studied, N2O increased at an average rate of about 0.6 ppbv/year (approximately 0.2%/year) although there were periods when the rates were substantially different. Using ice core data, a record of N2O can be put together that goes back about 1000 years. It shows pre-industrial levels of about 287 +/- 1 ppbv and that concentrations have now risen by about 27 ppbv or 9.4% over the last century. The ice core data show that N2O started increasing only during the 20th century. The data presented here represent a comprehensive view of the present global distribution of N20 and its historical and recent trends.     

Forest responses to tropospheric ozone and global climate change: an analysis

In this paper an analysis is provided on: what we know, what we need to know, and what we need to do, to further our understanding of the relationships between tropospheric ozone (O(3)), global climate change and forest responses. The relationships between global geographic distributions of forest ecosystems and potential geographic regions of high photochemical smog by the year 2025 AD are described. While the emphasis is on the effects of tropospheric O(3) on forest ecosystems, discussion is presented to understand such effects in the context of global climate change. One particular strong point of this paper is the audit of published surface O(3) data by photochemical smog region that reveals important forest/woodland geographic regions where little or no O(3) data exist even though the potential threat to forests in those regions appears to be large. The concepts and considerations relevant to the examination of ecosystem responses as a whole, rather than simply tree stands alone are reviewed. A brief argument is provided to stimulate the modification of the concept of simple cause and effect relationships in viewing total ecosystems. Our knowledge of O(3) exposure and its effects on the energy, nutrient and hydrological flow within the ecosystem are described. Modeling strategies for such systems are reviewed. A discussion of responses of forests to potential multiple climatic changes is provided. An important concept in this paper is that changes in water exchange processes throughout the hydrological cycle can be used as early warning indicators of forest responses to O(3). Another strength of this paper is the integration of information on structural and functional processes of ecosystems and their responses to O(3). An admitted weakness of this analysis is that the information on integrated ecosystem responses is based overwhelmingly on the San Bernardino Forest ecosystem research program of the 1970s because of a lack of similar studies. In the final analysis, it is recommended that systems ecology be applied in examining the joint effects of O(3), carbon dioxide and ultraviolet-B radiation on forest ecosystems.