基于可能—满意度的合肥市人口承载力研究

在系统分析城市人口承载力内涵基础上,运用“可能-满意度”法,在多目标条件下预测未来可支持合肥市健康发展的适度人口规模.结果表明：①城市供水、城市公共交通、城市医疗是合肥未来人口承载力的主要限制因素.②经济资源是未来人口承载力的主要“推力”,而自然资源、社会资源形成了人口承载力“拉力”.③预测2020年,合肥应将人口规模控制在593万人以内.     

中国城镇生活废水排放量影响因素及情景分析

以人口增长、社会发展和技术进步等因素对城镇生活废水排放量的影响建立城镇生活废水排放情景分析模型,对2010年、2015年、2020年和2030年的城镇生活废水排放量进行维持现状、滚动发展和环境友好发展方案预测.分析认为,环境友好型发展方案最符合未来发展趋势,到2020年中国城镇生活废水排放量达389.6×108t,随后出现负增长,2030年排放量为359.59×108t.     

世界人口的现状与未来

全世界的人口1983年为46亿7千万人。到本世末,将达到61亿。再以后人口仍将继续增长,到2025年将达82亿,到2050年将达95亿。全世界人口基本稳定大概要等二十二世纪初,那时世界人口将达到102亿。人口的增长主要是发展中国家,目前发展中国家的人口占世     

基于经济和环境资源多目标的适度人口容量预测——以上海市闵行区为例

人口容量预测成为城市规划的重要依据和重要内容。本文将基于经济和资源环境这一多目标体系,通过经济增长与就业率间的一般规律对关乎人口经济生存的就业岗位预测,以及对基于满足区域环境生态效应的绿地、水面积限制因子的估算,给出城市适度人口的新算法。以上海市闵行区为例,计算结果表明：闵行区2020年经济人口容量介于210万与250万之间,而基于满足生态效应的土地资源的环境人口容量在180万到230万之间。基于经济与环境资源的综合适度人口容量范围为196～232万。     

安徽省土地资源人口承载力的动态研究

基于《安徽省统计年鉴》，对全省近10年的土地资源、粮食生产及人口增长状况进行了分析。在此基础上，运用相关数学模型对2005-2020年全省人口数量、耕地面积和粮食单产分别进行了预测。为了提高预测精确度，取各种预测方法的平均值。根据安徽省情将其划分为温饱型、小康型和富裕型三档生活标准，分别探讨了预测期内安徽省土地承载力状况，提出了相应的发展对策和建议，为全省发展粮食生产提供科学依据。     

粤北土地资源人口承载能力及其现实意义

本文从粮食生产潜力的角度,提出了广东省粤北(韶关市和清远市)的土地资源人口承载能力,并以我国2000年人口平均粮食需要量和第四次全国人口普查结果,预测了韶关市和清远市人口承载能力临界值出现的时间。这对宏观指导农业生产和控制人口增长,有重要的现实意义。     

《青海省湟水水资源利用与发展趋势的预测及对策研究》课题通过鉴定

旨在通过科学研究,查清青海省湟水流域水资源利用现状、对发展趋势做出预测,并提出解决湟水流域水资源日益紧缺对策的《青海省湟水水资源利用现状与发展趋势的预测及对策研究》课题于1993年12月30日在有关部门主持下,通过了环保、水利等专家的鉴定审查。     

缤纷资讯

国际资讯联合国呼吁土地退化零增长《联合国防治荒漠化公约》秘书处近日发布报告,呼吁国际社会为"土地退化总面积零增长"做出努力。世界范围内有15亿人口直接受到土地退化的威胁,每年有1200万公顷可耕地由于土地退化和干旱而流失。另一方面,全世界对粮食的需求将在2030年增长50%,为满足不断增长的粮食需求则要增加1.2亿公顷的可耕地。     

碳排放承诺倒逼中国环保动真格

正11月12日,在中美双方发布的联合声明中,中国首次提出计划在2030年左右二氧化碳排放达到峰值且将努力早日达到峰值,并计划到2030年非化石能源占一次能源消费比重提高到20%左右。在此之前中国碳强度指标的承诺是相对减排,只要GDP增长,二氧化碳排放会随之增长,只需要增速减缓就行。这一次则是绝对量减排的承诺,2030年碳排放峰值将成为倒逼机制,对全球应对气候变化意义重大。排放峰值可能提前出现     

下面这些问题你想过没有?

2000年,我国内地新出生人口达到了3600多万,远高于1999年的1909万和2001年的1702万.2007年猪宝宝热的到来使人口密度再次不均匀增长,在如此集中的一个阶段可能会遇到的问题,又有多少人知道呢?     

辽宁省人口文化素质与社会经济关联度分析

在对国内外人口文化和社会经济发展关系文献研究的基础上,运用灰色关联分析法,以辽宁省为例,测度了2005--2010年人口文化素质和社会经济发展之间的关系,并按照较低、居中、较高三个层次的关联度格局进行分析。结果表明,辽宁省各市的人口文化素质与社会经济发展之间的关联度的总体趋势是逐年增加的,对社会经济的发展具有重要影响。辽宁省关联度高的地区,社会经济发展较快,反之社会经济发展较慢。因此,大力发展辽宁省的教育不仅可以提高人口文化素质,还将会促进辽宁省经济的飞速发展。     

基于Matlab曲线拟合的山东省各地市人口密度预测及Cartogram地图表现

通过Matlab软件的曲线拟合功能,以1993-2012年《山东省统计年鉴》中的人口统计数据为基础数据,对山东省17地市分别选择最佳拟合模型进行人口规模预测,依据行政区划面积计算人口密度,对结果以Cartogram的技术方法进行地图表现,得出直观的结果.该研究采用了新颖的专题地图表示方法,丰富了人口预测方法,对了解未来社会的供求关系和人口发展趋势、拟定正确合理的人口规划方案具有重大的理论和实践意义.     

Food Security in the Face of Climate Change,Population Growth,and Resource Constraints: Implications for Bangladesh

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO₂ fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm³, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.     

山东省人口重心迁移研究

采用人口重心模型,在GIS技术支持下着重对1989-2005年山东省人口重心迁移特征进行了研究,并在此基础上分析人口重心迁移的主要影响因素。结果显示,山东省人口重心接近几何中心,人口重心自东北向西南方向迁移的趋势明显,其移动轨迹呈现出一定的曲折和波动。山东省人口重心迁移受自然、社会经济和政策等多种因素的影响。     

陕西省人口分布的空间特征及其演变趋势

随着社会经济的不断发展,陕西省人口分布发生了明显变化.探究这种变化特征和趋势对协调区域人口的合理分布具有重要意义.采用空间自相关、人口结构指数、人口重心等研究方法,以陕西省97个县级行政区为研究单元、1990-2010年为研究区间,选取人口数和人口密度为研究对象,对陕西省人口分布的空间特征及其演变趋势进行了描述.结果表明,陕西省人口分布存在“中间高—南北低”的格局,人口密度空间分布呈正的空间相关性,人口集聚性较强.随着时间推移,集聚性趋势略有减弱,人口分布的不均衡性较显著,表现出上升趋势;人口重心向东北方向移动,移动速度有所加快.     

环西宁地区旅游资源现状及开发对策

环西宁地区是青海省经济的重心,也是旅游资源丰富且特色鲜明的区域,该区旅游资源的开发对青海省旅游业的整体发展具有带动作用.在分析环西宁地区旅游资源开发的优势及存在问题的基础上,提出了旅游资源开发对策.     

Population,environment, and development

The strategies for reducing population growth include social development and improvement in the educational attainment of women. The decline in Kenya's growth rate was attributed to high female literacy and reduced infant mortality. Another strategy for enhancing fertility decline is to reduce child mortality, particularly from preventable causes such as diarrhea. The entire cost of such a strategy to reduce preventable disease would be about $1.33 per 300 million taxpayers in developed countries. Family planning services must be expanded. Prevention of maternal mortality and AIDS would bring major benefits. Strategies for environmental protection emphasized the already existing plan of action set out in the UNCED document Agenda 21 in Rio de Janeiro. The plan has suffered from inaction. The estimated cost of $625 million was considered to be several times smaller than the costs of inaction. The elimination of subsidies in tropical forests would have an immediate impact. Natural resource accounting at the national level would include the value of natural resources. Pricing would change radically for gasoline if the costs of urban smog, acid rain, low-level ozone pollution, and global warming were taken into account. Strategies for sustainable development pertained to the preceding strategies and others indicated in the Agenda 21 Action Plan. If funding were better targeted to the poorest 20% of global population with high fertility rates, the accomplishments would be heralded. 1.2 million are living in absolute poverty, and aid for nutrition, primary health care, water and sanitation, basic education, and family planning amounts to only 10% of expenditures. An increase to 20% would mean a contribution from Americans of $7.50 per person or 33% of $25 thousand million from all developed countries. Developing countries need to lower their military expenditures, privatize public enterprises, change inappropriate development policies, eliminate corruption, and improve national governance. The debt burden should be reduced.     

青海省旅游客源市场分析研究

青海省旅游资源独特,资源的垄断性高,但旅游业起步晚且发展水平较低,在国际和国内旅游客源市场上占有的份额小。作者运用1990年～1997年旅游统计资料,研究了青海省国内、国际旅游客源市场的数量和地域构成现状,并针对其客源市场发展目标,提出了相应的开发措施。     

Water-smart growth planning: linking water and land in the arid urbanizing American West

Linking water and land is essential in planning for the future of the western United States. We propose the concept of ‘water-smart growth’ and explore its implications through incorporating water considerations into the SLEUTH land-use model. The urban growth trajectory in Cache County, Utah, is modeled from 2007 to 2030 under four different scenarios: current trend; smart growth; water-smart growth with moderate implementation; and water-smart growth with full implementation. Comparisons of simulation results illustrate the extent and ways in which water-smart growth would alter current established land-use growth patterns. The approach represents an initial step to better integrate land and water in urban growth modeling and planning. This study's purposes are to provide improved understanding and representation of linkages between water and land in urbanizing environments, offer insights from a set of modeled options, and demonstrate the significance of integrating land and water in planning practices.