Assessing the susceptibility of societies to droughts: a political science perspective

In this article we develop a concept for the assessment of state’s susceptibility to drought based on a political science perspective. Different sources of capacities and sensitivities need to be taken into account to assess the overall susceptibility of states as political systems. We argue that the overall susceptibility of a society depends on an interplay of state capacity and readiness as main elements of political susceptibility, wealth and economic sensitivity as elements of economic susceptibility and the degree of social integration. To transform the conceptual model into a susceptibility assessment we developed an inference model in order to generate quantitative indices. For this purpose we apply fuzzy set theory using data from our case study regions, namely Andhra Pradesh (India), the Volga region (Russia) and (Southern) Portugal. The resulting computed trends for Portugal suggest that the society will be able to deal even with severe natural conditions due to existing political, economic, and social conditions. The assessment results for the Indian and Russian case study regions, in contrast, give reason for precaution since the occurrence of drought-induced crisis events seems much more likely in the light of more crucial, overall conditions, namely lower degrees of state capacity and readiness as well as, in the case of India, a high economic susceptibility. However, further improvements are possible given the improved availability of data and the integration of more qualitative information. Additionally, the expansion to further case study regions could help validate the overall concept.     

A new approach to quantifying and comparing vulnerability to drought

In this study we develop an “inference modeling” approach to compare and analyze how different disciplines (economics, political science, and behavioral science/environmental psychology) estimate vulnerability to drought. It is thought that a better understanding of these differences can lead to a synthesis of insights from the different disciplines and eventually to more comprehensive assessments of vulnerability. The new methodology consists of (1) developing inference models whose variables and assertions incorporate qualitative knowledge about vulnerability, (2) converting qualitative model variables into quantitative indicators by using fuzzy set theory, (3) collecting data on the values of the indicators from case study regions, (4) inputting the regional data to the models and computing quantitative values for susceptibility. The methodology was applied to three case study regions (in India, Portugal and Russia) having a range of socio-economic and water stress conditions. In some cases the estimates of susceptibility were surprisingly similar, in others not, depending on the factors included in the disciplinary models and their relative weights. A new approach was also taken to testing vulnerability parameters by comparing estimated water stress against a data set of drought occurrences based on media analysis. The new methodologies developed in this paper provide a consistent basis for comparing differences between disciplinary perspectives, and for identifying the importance of the differences.

It is Always Dry Here: Examining Perceptions about Drought and Climate Change in the Southern High Plains

ABSTRACT

Drought is defined, experienced, and communicated about in multiple ways. This case study examines individual definitions of drought (timing, impacts, and severity) and attitudes about climate change. Household surveys (n?=?120) were conducted in Cimarron County, Oklahoma and Union County, New Mexico using a stratified random sampling method to select farmers, ranchers, and town residents. Information about drought is primarily communicated between neighbors, friends, and family, as well as media and local governing agencies. Residents perceive the recent drought to be the worst drought on record, regardless of previous drought experiences. Residents reported widespread drought-related impacts on agriculture, environment, and society. Most residents see drought as cyclical and driven by natural causes, rather than human causes. We recommend adaptive drought communication engage more fully with identity, place, and history. Climate information should be presented in a relevant manner to diverse agricultural stakeholders with differing attitudes about climate change, management, and climate information.     

干旱对生态系统脆弱性的影响研究——以长江中下游地区为例

将干旱作为定性事件,以长江中下游地区为研究对象,基于生态系统过程模型的动态模拟,根据IPCC有关脆弱性的概念,以生态系统功能特征量偏离多年平均状况的程度及其变化趋势分别定义生态系统对降水变化的敏感性和适应性,在生态系统的尺度上评估其对干旱的脆弱性。结果表明,长江中下游区域生态系统对降水脆弱性的空间分布有较为明显的区域差异。轻度脆弱及以下的生态系统占区域总面积的65%,主要分布在区域的中南部。重度脆弱和高度脆弱区域约占20%,主要分布在长江中下游的西北部。区域内生态系统对降水变率的平均脆弱度为轻度脆弱。干旱会显著增加研究区生态系统的脆弱性,具体表现为干旱导致原本不脆弱的生态系统脆弱度增加,而对脆弱度较高的生态系统的脆弱性影响不大。不同类型生态系统对干旱的响应稍有差异,干旱导致森林生态系统和农业生态系统的脆弱性均有所增加,但农业生态系统对干旱的脆弱性更高于森林生态系统。在研究区内,干旱对生态系统的影响会持续一段时间,但在干旱过后一年,不论是农业生态系统还是森林生态系统的脆弱性均有进一步上升,但相对多年平均水平没有显著差异     

Application of fuzzy models to assess susceptibility to droughts from a socio-economic perspective

By combining the concepts of environmental stress, state susceptibility and environmental crisis, “Security Diagram” (SD) provides a quantitative approach to assessing environmental change and human security. The SD is a tool that clearly presents in a diagram the security situation of a population or region affected by a particular environmental crisis. Its underlying concept emphasises that the higher the level of environmental stress and socio-economic susceptibility, the higher the probability of the occurrence of crisis. Focusing on drought, this study analyses the susceptibility of case study regions in India, Portugal, and Russia from a socio-economic perspective. A conceptual framework of socio-economic susceptibility is developed based on the economic development theories of modernisation and dependency. Fuzzy set theory is used to generate susceptibility indices from a range of national and sub-national indicators, including financial resources, agricultural dependency and infrastructure development (for economic susceptibility), and health condition, educational attainment and gender inequality (for social susceptibility). Results indicate that socio-economic susceptibility over the period 1980–1995 was highest in India, followed by Russia and (since 1989) lowest in Portugal. Globalisation is likely to contribute to changes in the level of socio-economic susceptibility over time. Moreover, specific social and economic structures unique in each country (e.g., the role of women in society in India, the socialist legacy in Russia) may explain differences in susceptibility between the case study regions.

Foreign,Domestic, and Cultural Factors in Climate Change Reporting: Swedish Media’s Coverage of Wildfires in Three Continents

This study examines domestic media’s coverage of foreign wildfires from a climate change perspective. It explores Swedish newspapers’ coverage of wildfires in Australia, the Mediterranean region, and the USA during a three-year period (February 2013–March 2016), focusing on how and to what extent climate change is viewed as an underlying cause. A central result is that climate change is mentioned far more often in the case of Australian wildfires than of fires in the other two regions. Another finding is that the climate change issue became more prominent after a severe domestic wildfire in 2014. These observations are also examined qualitatively through a combined frame and discourse study where the importance of foreign news values, the use of foreign sources, cultural proximity/distance, and domestication procedures are analysed. In conclusion, foreign, domestic, and cultural factors in climate change reporting in relation to extreme events are further discussed.     

基于模拟土壤含水量的长江上游#br# 干旱事件时空特征分析

干旱灾害是对我国农业生产和生态环境影响最为严重的自然灾害之一,研究干旱的时空变化特征对干旱的评估、预测有重要的指导意义。研究基于VIC（Variable Infiltration Capacity）模型模拟的50km分辨率的逐日土壤含水量数据,计算土壤含水量距平指数（SMAPI）并分析了长江流域上游1953~2013年历史干旱事件的时空变化特征。结果表明：（1）VIC模型能较好的模拟出1980~2000年长江流域上游出口宜昌断面的流量过程;（2）SMAPI指数能够反映长江流域上游实际干旱的发生、发展过程和严重程度,能够较好地再现历史干旱情形;（3）通过研究长江流域上游的干旱历时 面积 强度关系发现,干旱历时一定时,随着干旱面积的增加,干旱强度总体呈增强的趋势。研究结果对于深入认识长江流域上游历史干旱长期演变特征和增强区域防旱抗旱能力具有一定的理论和实用价值。 关键词： VIC模型;土壤含水量距平指数;时空特征;长江上游     

Rethinking assessment of drought impacts: a systemic approach towards sustainability

Although impacting primarily economic sectors, droughts may also initiate dynamic mechanisms that have socio-environmental consequences on sustainability of the impacted areas. To date, most research has dealt with the economic impacts of droughts, with minimal attention being paid to the dynamics of damaging mechanisms associated with socio-environmental impacts. Using a systemic approach, this paper develops a method of identifying the dynamic structures responsible for the consequences of drought. Considering the impacts of recent droughts in Iran, the paper presents a conceptual model, underpinned by a Limits to Growth archetype to explain how different drought impacts are triggered. Moreover, adopting the Viability Loops concept, a range of strategies and indices are suggested as monitoring tools to sustain socio-economic life in a drought-impacted area. The provinces of Hamadan (with water abundance), and Yazd and Isfahan (with water scarcity) in Iran have been selected to illustrate the proposed methodology. Results show a higher vulnerability to droughts in the water-rich region due to dependence on water abundance as opposed to the water-poor regions, which are well adapted to water scarcity conditions.     

Eating Meat and Climate Change: The Media Blind Spot—A Study of Spanish and Italian Press Coverage

There is strong evidence that a meat and dairy-based diet is a very important contributor to climate change. However, the correlation between the production and consumption of livestock and anthropogenic climate change has received minimal media coverage. The literature for English-speaking countries shows a sort of media blind spot for meat in that the news media barely address, or do not address, the responsibility of individuals' dietary choices with regard to this issue. In this paper, we provide data for press coverage in Southern Europe from a sample of the top 10 Spanish and Italian newspapers for a seven-year period (2006–2013). Data from our samples correlate with findings from previous studies. However, our comparative study suggests that there are also meaningful differences between both countries studied while their alleged Mediterranean dietary background makes no difference in terms of ethical or dietary sensitivity.     

Assessment of regional climate change impacts on Hungarian landscapes

The assessment of regional climate change impacts combined with the sensitivity of landscape functions by predictive modelling of hazardous landscape processes is a new fundamental field of research. In particular, this study investigates the effects of changing weather extremes on meso-regional-scale landscape vulnerability. Climatic-exposure parameter analysis was performed on a predicted climate change scenario. The exposure to climate change was analysed on the basis of the original data of the meso-scale IPCC A1B climate scenario from the REMO and ALADIN regional models for the periods of 2021–2050 and 2071–2100, and the regional types of climate change impacts were calculated by using cluster analysis. Selected climate exposure parameters of the REMO and ALADIN models were analysed, in particular, for extreme events (days with precipitation greater than 30 mm, heat waves, dry periods, wet periods) and for daily temperature and precipitation. The landscape functions impacted by climate change are proxies for the main recent and future problematic processes in Hungary. Soil erosion caused by water, drought, soil erosion caused by wind, mass movement and flash floods were analysed for the time periods of 1961–1990, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. Based on the sensitivity thresholds for the impact assessments, the landscape functional sensitivity indicators were interpreted, and an integrative summary of the five indicators was made, differentiating the regions facing only a few or multiple sensitivities. In Central Hungary, the increasing exposure and sensitivity to droughts will be a serious problem when following the REMO scenario. In several regions, most indicators will change the sensitivity threshold from a tolerable risk to an increased or very high risk.     

The viticultural system and climate change: coping with long-term trends in temperature and rainfall in Roussillon,France

Mediterranean viticulture could suffer from hotter and drier growing seasons over the coming decades. The present article focuses on the wine-producing area Côtes-du-Roussillon-Villages near Perpignan, in southern France. We used observational daily data (1925–2010) from Perpignan weather station and daily outputs (2001–2060) of the regional climate model ARPEGE-RETIC-V4 from Météo-France with scenarios A2, A1B and B1, to assess the exposure of the regional wine system to changes in temperature and precipitation, both in the recent past and the coming decades (1925–2060). Temperatures during the growing season and summer temperature extremes have been increasing continuously since the mid-1980s and are projected to increase faster from the mid-2040s. Precipitation is highly variable and very low in summer, and projections suggest greater uncertainty, and more extreme drought events could be expected. The analysis of climate data was complemented by thirty-two in-depth interviews with local actors of the wine industry to assess the impacts of climate change on their activities and potential adaptive options. Producers reported negative impacts of recent changes in climate in conjunction with a difficult economic situation. Analyses of historical, social and economic backgrounds are important to fully conceptualize the nature and extent of climate change risks in the region. This case study provides important insights into the roles of non-climatic factors in the generation of vulnerability for Mediterranean agricultural systems facing rapid climate change.     

Communicating Haze Crisis Online: Comparing Traditional Media News and New Media Perspectives in Singapore

ABSTRACT

To understand haze-related online communication in Southeast Asia, this exploratory study took a mixed method approach to conduct web analysis of online communication during haze crisis in Singapore, followed by textual analysis of traditional and new media content during peak days. First, web analytics showed that Singapore’s haze online communication occurred mostly on the Twitter platform with primary negative sentiments. Next, textual analysis results found that majority of traditional media-affiliated news provided informative haze reports and centered on positive measurements taken by government and authorities, similar to Public Information Model for crisis management. In comparison, haze-related new media content had diverse topics reflecting laymen’s viewpoints with critical tones and negative sentiments. News portals and blogs used two-way asymmetrical and symmetrical model for crisis management, respectively. Additionally, Social Cognitive Theory’s media diversity perspectives were applied to understand people’s media choices among traditional and new media during natural crisis with environmental influences.     

Spatial vulnerability under extreme events: A case of Asian dust storm's effects on children's respiratory health

Asian dust storm (ADS) events have raised concerns regarding their adverse impact on human health. Whether ADS events can result in the heterogeneity of health impacts on children across space and time has not been studied. The goal of this study is to examine the spatial vulnerability impact of ADS events on children's respiratory health geographically and to analyze any patterns related to ADS episodes. From 1998 to 2007, data from both preschool children's and schoolchildren's daily respiratory clinic visits, gathered from patients located in 41 districts of Taipei City and New Taipei City, are analyzed in a Bayesian spatiotemporal model in order to investigate the interaction between spatial effects and ADS episodes. When adjusting for the temporal effect, air pollutants, and temperature, the spatial pattern explicitly varies during defined study periods: non-ADS periods, ADS periods, and post-ADS periods. Compared to non-ADS periods, the relative rate of children's respiratory clinic visits significantly reduced 0.74 to 0.99 times in most districts during ADS periods, while the relative rate rose from 1.01 to 1.11 times in more than half of districts during post-ADS periods, especially in schoolchildren. This spatial vulnerability denotes that the significantly increased relative rate of respiratory clinic visits during post-ADS periods is primarily located in highly urbanized areas for both children's populations. Hence, the results of this study suggest that schoolchildren are particularly more vulnerable to the health impacts of ADS exposure in terms of higher excessive risks over a larger spatial extent than preschool children, especially during post-ADS periods.     

Socio-economic vulnerability of the megacity of Shanghai (China) to sea-level rise and associated storm surges

Sea-level rise (SLR) poses a significant threat to many coastal areas and will likely have important impacts on socio-economic development in those regions. Located on the eastern coast in China, the megacity of Shanghai is particularly vulnerable to SLR and associated storm surge risks. Using the municipality of Shanghai as a case study, the possible impacts of flooding risks caused by SLR and associated storm surges on socio-economic development in the region were analysed by a Source–Pathway–Receptor–Consequence (SPRC) conceptual model. The projections of flooding risk in the study area were simulated by MIKE21 (a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model) for the three time periods of 2030, 2050 and 2100. An index system for vulnerability assessment was devised, in which flooding depth, density of population, GDP per capita, GDP per unit land, loss rate under flooding and fiscal revenue were selected as the key indicators. A quantitative spatial assessment method based on a GIS platform was established by quantifying each indicator, calculating and then grading the vulnerability index. The results showed that in the 2030 projection, 99.3 % of the areas show no vulnerability to SLR and associated storm surges under the present infrastructure. By 2050, the areas with low, moderate and high vulnerabilities change significantly to 5.3, 8.0 and 23.9 %, respectively, while by 2100, the equivalent figures are 12.9, 6.3 and 30.7 %. The application of the SPRC model, the methodology and the results from this study could assist with the objective and quantitative assessment of the socio-economic vulnerability of other similar coastal regions undergoing the impacts of SLR and associated storm surges. Based on the results of this study, mitigation and adaptation measures should be considered, which include the controlling the rate of land subsidence, the reinforcement of coastal defence systems and the introduction of adaptation in long-term urban planning.     

The Influence of Media Use on Environmental Engagement: A Political Socialization Approach

Current research suggests that the media play an important part in informing and engaging citizens in environmental issues. Building on these findings, this study adopts a political socialization approach to citizens' involvement in everyday-life pro-environmental behavior. Multivariate analysis of recent survey data from Swedish adolescents (N = 1148) demonstrates direct as well as indirect relationships between frequency of news media use, talk about environmental issues with parents and peers, and extent of pro-environmental behavior. The findings are consistent with the notion that news media use promotes behavior by raising awareness of environmental issues. The results are also discussed in terms of a citizen-communication framework according to which interpersonal communication translates environmental information gleaned from news sources to adolescents' everyday-life reality, thereby motivating pro-environmental behavior. Future directions for examining causal mechanisms in more detail are discussed.     

2014, The “year without a summer” in Italy: news media coverage and implications for the climate change debate

In 2014, there was virtually no summer in northern and central-southern Italy. Storm after storm battered the peninsula, triggering floods and landslides from Veneto to Puglia. We studied the coverage of “the year without a summer” in Italy by analyzing the content of 171 news articles from two influential online newspapers. Our software-based analysis enabled us to observe that the two newspapers hardly ever mentioned climate change in their coverage of the weather anomaly that affected Italy in the summer of 2014. This type of coverage is in line with climate science, according to which there is no evidence of a climate change-related influence on summer precipitation patterns in Southern Europe—whereas such influence has been documented for northern Europe. We compared our results with a recent paper, which documented that the same online dailies chose to represent the particularly hot summer of 2012 in Italy as a direct consequence of climate change. We corroborated this comparison also on the basis of a preliminary analysis we performed on the media coverage of the exceptionally hot and arid summer of 2015 in Italy.     

Framing the flood: a media analysis of themes of resilience in the 2011 Brisbane flood

In the wake of the flood that affected Brisbane, Australia, in January 2011, public attention turned to the causes of the event and lessons for minimizing the impacts of future floods. The news media was an important vehicle for understanding and internalizing the 2011 Brisbane flood. Examining how the flood was framed in the media is, therefore, useful to understand broad public perception of floods. We undertook a systematic newspaper analysis during a one-year period to explore media framings of the flood, focused on learning as an aspect of resilience in relation to two themes: (1) perceived links between the flood and climate change and (2) perceived roles of government in managing the flood. We show that media coverage of the flood reinforces aspects of resilience by acknowledging community spirit, self-reliance and the importance of sharing experiences for learning; articulating the risk of extreme events in a changing climate; and highlighting regional management trade-offs. Much of the discourse is likely to inhibit resilience, however, by casting the flood in terms of blame and political opportunity and paying inadequate attention to longer-term aspects of regional resilience. The limited learning observed to date may highlight a need for other mechanisms and actors to lead learning processes. As policy related to the 2011 Brisbane flood, and extreme events more generally, is influenced by the public discourse, it is important to understand the nuances of communication around these events and the media’s role in reinforcing or changing perceptions.     

In Flanders Fields: De/politicization and Democratic Debate on a GM Potato Field Trial Controversy in News Media

In May 2011, a highly mediatized direct action in the form of a “field liberation” took place in Flanders, Belgium, against a field trial of genetically modified potatoes. This direct action and its aftermath revealed the conflictual and antagonistic nature of the genetically modified organisms debate in Flanders. Consequently, it serves as a particularly suitable case to investigate the post-political thesis with regard to environmental discourse and politics. The aim of this paper is to investigate in what ways news media in their reporting contribute to processes of depoliticization and, resultantly, impede a democratic debate on the issues at stake. This paper attempts to provide an answer to this question based on a critical discourse analysis of the reporting by Flanders’ two generalist, elite newspapers, De Standaard and De Morgen and the alternative online news site DeWereldMorgen. The findings reveal the existence of three ideological cultures, which are characterized by different degrees of de/politicization. We conclude by discussing how this study adds to our understanding of the relation between the depoliticization of environmental discourse, democratic debate and twenty-first-century news media.     

An economic assessment of drought effects on three grassland systems in Switzerland

This paper analyzes the economic impacts of summer drought on Swiss grassland production. We combine field trial data from drought experiments in three different grasslands in Switzerland with site-specific information on economic costs and benefits. The analysis focuses on the economic implications of drought effects on grassland yields as well as grassland composition. In agreement with earlier studies, we found rather heterogeneous yield effects of drought on Swiss grassland systems, with significantly reduced yields as a response to drought at the lowland and sub-alpine sites, but increased yields at the wetter pre-alpine site. Relative yield losses were highest at the sub-alpine site (with annual yield losses of up to 37 %). However, because income from grassland production at extensive sites relies to a large extent on ecological direct payments, even large yield losses had only limited implications in terms of relative profit reductions. In contrast, negative drought impacts at the most productive, intensively managed lowland site were dominant, with average annual drought-induced profit margin reductions of about 28 %. This is furthermore emphasized if analyzing the farm level perspective of drought impacts. Combining site-specific effects at the farm level, we found that in particular farms with high shares of lowland grassland sites suffer from summer droughts in terms of farm-level fodder production and profit margins. Moreover, our results showed that the higher competitiveness of weeds (broad-leaved dock) under drought conditions will require increasing attention on weed control measures in future grassland production systems. Taking into account that the risk of drought occurrence is expected to increase in the coming years, additional instruments to cope with drought risks in fodder production and finally farmers’ income have to be developed.     

Issue Cycles in Corporate Sustainability Reporting: A Longitudinal Study

Issue cycles in media reporting and in the coverage of environmental news in particular have been studied since the 1970s. This study seeks to extend existing theory on issue-attention lifecycles from the news-media domain to the corporate domain by exploring how companies operationalize environmental sustainability over time. Using computer-assisted text analysis, this study investigates 744 corporate environmental reports in a 10-year longitudinal design in order to study how the attention that companies pay to a set of 13 environmental issues shifts over this period. The results indicate discernible issue cycles for almost all of the issues studied. Some issues are in a phase of heightened awareness, others in a punctuated equilibrium following specific events, and even others in a phase of decline. The issue cycles identified suggest that companies pursue their environmental strategies consistently, but shift attention to particular issues as a response to high-profile environmental events. Policy-makers therefore need to be aware of the slowness of changes in corporate environmental strategies.