长江经济带能源消费碳排放与经济增长实证分析——基于弹性脱钩模型

基于我国1995—2015年长江经济带能源消费数据测算碳排放总量,借助弹性脱钩模型分析碳排放与经济增长的脱钩状态,利用等维灰色递补GM(1,1)模型进行预测。结果表明:①1995—2015年长江经济带碳排放量逐年增长,约70%的碳排放来自于工业部门;原煤和电力碳排放量占总量1/2左右;江浙、湖南与四川分别成为东、中、西部地区的碳排放中心;②长江经济带碳排放与经济增长脱钩先后经历:较理想的弱脱钩状态恶化为增长连结甚至扩张的负脱钩状态,逐渐改善为增长连结或弱脱钩状态,再进一步改善为弱脱钩或强脱钩状态;③2016—2026年长江经济带能源消费、碳排放及GDP均持续增长,导致能源消费与经济增长、碳排放与经济增长均呈现出弱脱钩状态,而排放与能源消费呈现出增长连结状态,该状态与理想的强脱钩状态尚有一定的距离。     

中国沿海区域旅游发展与碳排放脱钩关系研究

引入旅游节能弹性和旅游减排弹性分指标构建旅游发展与碳排放脱钩模型,分析了中国沿海区域2003—2012年旅游发展与碳排放的脱钩关系及时空演变趋势,并根据十年平均发展情况将我国沿海11省(市)划分为三类。研究结果表明:沿海区域旅游发展与能源消耗脱钩程度较好,主要表现为弱脱钩;旅游减排弹性值较高,能源消耗与碳排放脱钩程度较差,并且没有明显改善趋势;旅游发展与碳排放总脱钩以弱脱钩和增长连结为主;辽宁、河北、山东和广西近十年旅游发展与碳排放脱钩关系呈增长连结状态,海南省虽属于增长连结,但旅游减排脱钩程度极低,其余省份则处于弱脱钩状态。据此,提出提高能源效率、改善能源结构、发展新能源等建议,以促进旅游业节能减排。     

安徽农业能源消耗碳排放与经济发展脱钩分析

基于2006—2016年安徽省农业GDP和农业生产能源消耗的基础数据,核算了在此期间安徽省农业生产能源消耗产生的碳排放总量,并利用Tapio脱钩指数分析了农业能源消耗碳排放与农业生产总值之间的脱钩关系。结果表明,安徽省在此期间农业经济增长与农业能源消耗碳排放绝大多数处于弱脱钩状态,并有向强脱钩转变的趋势。安徽省应大力发展减排技术,减少柴油和原煤的消耗量,尽早实现农业能源消耗碳排放与农业经济增长的脱钩。     

碳排放与经济增长关系及驱动因素分析——以西北地区为例

选取2000--2010年我国西北地区（陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆）5个省区能源消费数据和经济数据作为样本数据,根据IPCC碳排放计算指南,测算出西北各地区的碳排放量;采用脱钩理论对西北地区碳排放与经济增长脱钩状态进行分析,运用LMDI分解方法构建碳排放因素分解模型深入研究其驱动因素.研究结论显示,2001-2010年西北地区经济增长与碳排放的脱钩状态趋于不稳定状态,其中2002年、2004年为强脱钩,2001年、2007年、2009年、2010年为弱脱钩,2003年、2005年、2008年为扩展性负脱钩,2006年为增长连接;经济规模持续扩大是西北地区碳排放快速增长的关键因素,能源强度下降是抑制西北地区碳排放增长的主要因素,产业结构优化升级和能源结构调整是控制碳排放增加的潜在因素.     

北京经济增长与空气污染关系的实证研究——基于脱钩理论与VAR模型CSSCI

运用脱钩理论和VAR模型,分析了北京三类空气污染物与经济增长之间的脱钩状态、相互间动态影响方向和程度。主要结论为:1SO_2和NO_2浓度经历了从强脱钩到弱脱钩的循环过程,SO_2浓度强脱钩年份稍多;PM10浓度经历了从强脱钩—弱脱钩—强脱钩—扩张连接的循环过程,三类污染物浓度均未出现持续强脱钩状态。2三类空气污染物和经济增长间均存在长期协整关系且呈负向,SO_2浓度弹性系数最大,其次是PM10浓度,最后是NO_2浓度,表明北京空气污染治理力度取得了部分成效。3脉冲响应分析结果表明,今后一段时期内,经济增长和三类空气污染物相互间的脉冲响应值总体上是负向的,并呈波动性变化趋势。方差分解结果表明,三类空气污染物对经济增长的方差分解贡献度逐步上升,SO_2浓度贡献度最大,其次是PM10浓度,NO_2浓度最小;经济增长对SO_2浓度方差分解的贡献度最大,其次是PM10浓度和NO_2浓度,均持续上升。     

基于脱钩模型的山东省碳排放与经济增长时空关系研究

运用脱钩模型对山东省碳排放与经济增长的关系进行研究,结果表明,1996—2013年山东省的脱钩状态表现为显著的弱脱钩—扩张负脱钩—弱脱钩的"N"型发展轨迹,2005—2012年山东省各地市的脱钩状态存在明显的区域差异,17个地市中多数城市表现为弱脱钩状态,尽管2011年有中西部的莱芜、济宁、泰安、聊城、枣庄和德州等6个地市曾达到强脱钩状态,但与其经济发展及能耗水平密切相关。研究认为,各地市在开展低碳转型工作时要因地制宜地制定差异化碳减排政策,政府要大力鼓励支持节能减排技术的研发,优化能源结构和产业结构,实现产业的低碳化发展。     

北京经济增长与空气污染关系的实证研究——基于脱钩理论与VAR模型

运用脱钩理论和VAR模型,分析了北京三类空气污染物与经济增长之间的脱钩状态、相互间动态影响方向和程度。主要结论为:1SO_2和NO_2浓度经历了从强脱钩到弱脱钩的循环过程,SO_2浓度强脱钩年份稍多;PM10浓度经历了从强脱钩—弱脱钩—强脱钩—扩张连接的循环过程,三类污染物浓度均未出现持续强脱钩状态。2三类空气污染物和经济增长间均存在长期协整关系且呈负向,SO_2浓度弹性系数最大,其次是PM10浓度,最后是NO_2浓度,表明北京空气污染治理力度取得了部分成效。3脉冲响应分析结果表明,今后一段时期内,经济增长和三类空气污染物相互间的脉冲响应值总体上是负向的,并呈波动性变化趋势。方差分解结果表明,三类空气污染物对经济增长的方差分解贡献度逐步上升,SO_2浓度贡献度最大,其次是PM10浓度,NO_2浓度最小;经济增长对SO_2浓度方差分解的贡献度最大,其次是PM10浓度和NO_2浓度,均持续上升。     

黄河流域旅游经济与生态环境耦合协调度评价及影响因素

正确认识和恰当处理旅游经济与生态环境的关系是实现区域生态保护和旅游业高质量发展的重要议题。采用耦合协调度模型和空间回归分析方法,评价2007—2017年我国黄河流域9省区旅游经济与生态环境的耦合协调度及影响因素。结果表明:①2007—2017年,黄河流域旅游经济和生态环境两大系统的评价值均呈增长趋势,旅游经济的增长速度明显高于生态环境。②2007—2017年,黄河流域各省区旅游经济与生态环境耦合协调度呈上升态势。③政府控制力、产业结构(第三产业占比)、人口规模和人民生活水平4个因素对本地区旅游经济与生态环境耦合协调发展具有显著正向影响,工业研发投入对本地区旅游经济与生态环境耦合协调具有显著负向影响。     

低碳试点城市工业碳排放脱钩因素分解研究——以镇江市为例

基于塔皮奥脱钩理论和LMDI分解技术构建脱钩因素分解模型,对镇江市工业和6个重点行业的碳排放脱钩趋势与脱钩因素进行分析。结果表明:2002—2015年镇江市工业碳排放总量呈递增趋势,工业碳排放结构无明显变化;工业碳排放与经济增长之间的脱钩效应呈现出显著的阶段性特征,主要表现为弱—强—弱—强的变化趋势,经济规模和经济结构分别是抑制和促进脱钩效应的主要因素;6个重点行业的碳排放脱钩趋势和脱钩因素既有共性又有个性,其中化学工业和非金属矿物制造业的脱钩变化趋势类似且脱钩状态最佳,经济规模效应是6个行业共有的脱钩抑制因素。基于实证结论,对镇江市工业低碳转型提出政策建议。     

边境地区城乡建设用地与人口变化脱钩研究——以吉林省珲春市为例

依据脱钩指数计算模型和Tapio划分的脱钩状态,对吉林省珲春市2008—2017年城乡建设用地与人口变化的脱钩关系进行分析。结果表明:2008—2017年,珲春市仅杨泡满族乡呈"强脱钩"关系,市区呈"弱脱钩"关系,近海街和马川子乡呈"扩张负脱钩"关系;其他镇(乡)呈"强负脱钩"关系,整体上珲春市基于人口数量的城乡建设用地规模处于欠合理状态。鉴于此,针对加快珲春市经济结构向土地节约集约利用型转变和促进城乡统筹发展提出相关建议。     

生态保护补偿政策能否促进企业高质量发展——来自黄河流域制造业的经验证据

黄河流域环境污染与高质量发展已成为当前国内关注的重要问题,我国为应对黄河流域生态恶化带来的挑战制定了一系列环保政策。本文立足生态补偿政策并构建准自然实验,以 2005-2019年黄河流域 A股制造业上市公司为研究对象,运用多期双重差分法实证检验生态保护补偿政策对黄河流域制造业高质量发展的影响。研究发现:生态保护补偿政策的实施促进了黄河流域制造业高质量发展水平的提高且存在明显的区域异质性和产权异质性,具体表现在对黄河流域上游和国有企业制造业高质量发展促进作用明显高于中下游地区和非国有企业。社会责任承担和政府补助增加是生态保护补偿政策推进黄河流域制造业高质量发展的重要方式,上述研究结论在经过 PSM-DID、更换被解释变量、安慰剂检验后仍然具有稳健性。研究全面考虑了生态保护补偿政策在流域内不同区域发挥作用的渠道,有利于充分发挥生态保护补偿政策在黄河流域生态治理和高质量发展中的功效。     

黄河三角洲高效生态经济发展存在的问题与对策研究

国家将黄河三角洲的发展定位为"高效生态",并上升为国家战略,这给黄河三角洲高效生态经济发展提供了重要机遇。从分析高效生态经济内涵出发,着重分析了区域经济结构不合理、对外开放水平不高、体制机制严重不足、生态与环境保护薄弱等问题,并提出了优化产业结构、坚持全方位开放、建立科学制度和坚持生态优先等相应对策,以期对黄河三角洲高效生态经济发展提供借鉴。     

我国海洋经济高质量发展指标体系构建及时空分析——基于海洋强国战略背景

通过对海洋强国战略背景下我国海洋经济高质量发展内涵的分析,构建评价指标体系,运用全局熵权法对2013—2019年沿海11省份指标数据进行研究。结果发现:①时间上,我国沿海省份海洋经济发展质量整体呈上升趋势,广东、上海稳定处于高水平梯度,河北、广西、海南持续处于低水平,辽宁、福建、天津略有变动。②空间上,从海洋经济平均发展质量看,长三角位列第一;但在增长率方面珠三角高于长三角,第三是环渤海海洋经济区。③影响因素上,环境保护力度、科技创新能力、对外开放规模,海洋新兴产业等有待提高和发展。最后针对我国海洋经济高质量发展,提出相应建议。     

Nitrogen contamination in the Yellow River basin of China

Nitrogen contamination is one of the most serious problems in the Yellow River of China. This study was conducted to analyze monitoring data on nitrogen contamination for the Yellow River basin in the years 1980, 1990, 1997, and 1999. Several significant results have arisen from the study. First, in conjunction with an increase in economic indexes from the Yellow River's upper basin to its lower basin, the nitrogen concentration in the tributaries also showed an increasing trend from the upper to the lower basin, which, in turn, led to an increase in the nitrogen concentration of the mainstream from the upper to the lower reaches. Second, nitrogen in the river water in the mainstream and the tributaries of the Yellow River was attributed mainly to point sources. In spite of the fact that the ratio of point to nonpoint sources decreased from 2.7 in 1990 to 1.8 in 1997 for total inorganic nitrogen in river water at the Tongguan Station in the lower basin, point sources increased more than nonpoint sources. Third, the ammonium nitrogen and total inorganic nitrogen content of the river water increased significantly in the mainstream and the tributaries during the 1980-1999 period, a change caused by an increase in wastewater discharge and nitrogenous fertilizer application in the Yellow River catchment.     

我国经济发展的生态效率及其改进策略

本文考察了我国历年生态效率状况,应用两种预测方法探讨了至2020年我国经济发展的生态效率预期目标,并从宏观角度提出了系统性的改进策略。研究表明,1997～2005年,我国水资源生产率、工业用水资源生产率、能源生产率、COD排放生产率、SO2排放生产率的年平均增长率分别为8．77％、7．19％、2．56％、11．94％、7．35％。根据“十一五”规划,至2010年,我国拟采用的水资源生产率倍数、工业用水资源生产率倍数、能源生产率倍数、COD排放生产率倍数、SO2排放生产率倍数分别为1．924、2．081、1．223、2．570、1．969,与根据我国历年变化趋势所预测的相应值基本持平,有的甚至还相对低一些;按“十一五”规划期生态效率增长趋势所推测的2020年上述值分别为3．006、4．247、1．912、6．540、5．009,根据我国历年变化趋势所预测的相应值分别为5．37、4．01、1．66、9．54、4．13。我国生态效率改进的基本策略是：技术进步、结构调整、制度创新和强化管理等。     

The dynamics of landfill diversion: Economic drivers, policy factors and spatial issues: Evidence from Italy using provincial panel data

Waste disposal is an issue that is becoming increasingly important in policy terms in the European Union, and in Italy, a country showing strong geographical heterogeneity in waste management. This paper analyses the process of decoupling/delinking between economic growth and landfilling trends in a framework where economic, policy, geographical elements and spatial issues are all considered as drivers behind the phenomenon. We exploit an original and very rich provincial panel dataset over 1999–2005 for the 103 Italian provinces. Evidence shows that the observed ‘absolute’ decoupling between economic growth and landfilling is driven by a mix of structural factors. Among the main factors, population density, more than the provincial income level, emerges as a crucial driver: local opportunity costs and landfill externalities matter in shaping waste policies and local commitment to a transition away from landfilling of waste (landfill diversion). However, not only structural factors are relevant. If on the one hand landfill taxes are not a significant driver of the phenomenon, waste management tools, such as separated collection for recycling, and the tariff system connected to waste services, bring about significant effect on the amount of landfilled waste. Moreover, regarding the analysis of spatial interrelations across provinces, we note that the presence of incinerators in nearby provinces increases landfill diversion, due probably to free riding behaviour or intra-provinces ‘agreements’ on waste management; this is not true for nearby landfill sites, that cause for a given province a strong lock in effect. Future research could strengthen the analysis of policy effectiveness at regional level, focusing on policy endogeneity, and the full investigation of spatial correlations in waste disposal performances.     

Eco-health evaluation for the Shanghai metropolitan area during the recent industrial transformation (1990-2003)

Shanghai is a cosmopolitan city and one of the most important economic centers in China, but is saddled with serious environmental problems resulting from a recent industrial transformation. This paper examines the interactive relationships between economic growth, eco-efficiency of urban metabolism, and environmental performance of the Shanghai metropolitan area since the 1990s using 15 indicators. This study has revealed an enhanced eco-efficiency of water and energy use as well as an improved overall environmental quality in the central urban districts of Shanghai. Both TGDP (total GDP) and GDP per capita increased rapidly at the annual rate of 16.28% and 15.91%, respectively. In contrast, energy consumed per 10000RMB YUAN GDP (ECG), water consumed per 10000RMB YUAN GDP (WCG), wastewater discharged per 10000RMB YUAN GDP (WWDG), and waste gases emitted per 10000RMB YUAN GDP (WGEG) decreased at the annual rate of 9.34%, 10.69%, 14.57%, and 8.52%, respectively. The rapid decline in ECG, WCG, WWDG, and WGEG indicates an enhanced eco-efficiency of urban metabolism. However, uncontrolled emission of wastes from domestic instead of industrial sources adversely affected the overall environmental quality. In addition, suburban areas have undergone rapid economic growth at the cost of human health deterioration, as measured by mortalities and relative mortality ratios of three major diseases (tumor, respiratory disease, and trauma/toxicosis). With Shanghai serving as the "locomotive" driving the economy of the Yangtze River Basin, effective pollution control policies and a network of regional coordination are urgently needed in the globalization and ecological security of the entire area.     

Decoupling analysis of water consumption and economic development of arid and semiarid regions in Northwest China

The contradiction between China's economic development, its need for resources and the protection of the environment is ctitical. Scarce water resources have resulted in a considerable bottleneck restricting the economic development of water-deficient areas. An objective evaluation of the decoupling state of water consumption and economic development has become an important indicator of regional economic sustainable development. Based on panel data from 2000 to 2017 for six provinces in the arid and semiarid regions of Northwest China, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method is employed to decompose the factors of the decoupling index and establish a decoupling relationship model between water consumption and economic development. The reasons that affect the decoupling state of water resource utilization and economic development are herein discussed, and the stability of the decoupling trend is analysed. Based on the overall regional trend, the decoupling state of the arid and semiarid regions in Northwest China improved from weak to strong, but the high decoupling stability index varied among the provinces. The intensity and structure were promotional factors for decoupling water consumption and economic development, and the contribution rate of the intensity factor was higher than that of the structure factor. Income and population were inhibiting factors for decoupling water consumption and economic development, and the contribution rate of the income factor was higher than that of the population factor. Based on these results, corresponding policy recommendations are provided.     

粮食安全视角下黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展

黄河流域是我国重要的生态功能区，是实现国家粮食安全的重点区域。本文梳理了近期黄河流域的相关研究，从粮食安全视角下分析了黄河流域现阶段在流域水效率、流域水管理机制、流域水生态文明三方面的问题，并提出了关于黄河流域大保护与高质量发展的两方面建议。一是创新流域水管理机制，服务国家粮食安全。积极改进水资源管理方式，加大节水宣传教育力度，加强黄河流域水土流失综合治理，合理调控水价，完善黄河流域水权市场建设。二是践行"两山"理论，提升流域水生态文明。建设"四大体系"和"七大区域"，推进生态廊道建设；转变经济发展方式；提前布局水生态文明建设。