Resampling methods for evaluating classification accuracy of wildlife habitat models

Predictive models of wildlife-habitat relationships often have been developed without being tested The apparent classification accuracy of such models can be optimistically biased and misleading. Data resampling methods exist that yield a more realistic estimate of model classification accuracy These methods are simple and require no new sample data. We illustrate these methods (cross-validation, jackknife resampling, and bootstrap resampling) with computer simulation to demonstrate the increase in precision of the estimate. The bootstrap method is then applied to field data as a technique for model comparison We recommend that biologists use some resampling procedure to evaluate wildlife habitat models prior to field evaluation.     

A Survey of Strategies Adopted by UK Wildlife Trusts in the Promotion of Gardening for Wildlife

With the decline of wildlife due to, among other things, agricultural intensification, gardening for wildlife has an increasingly recognized role in the conservation of biodiversity and habitats. The United Kingdom (UK) Wildlife Trusts have a key role in the promotion of awareness and best practice of wildlife gardening. In spring 2001, a survey of all 46 United Kingdom County Wildlife Trusts was carried out, focussing on their level of awareness of the issue, whether they actively promoted it, and what literature they employ, and whether they form partnerships in implementing this project.The survey achieved an 83 percent reply rate. The Trusts carried out a wide variety of promotional activities, although its importance as an issue varied from Trust to Trust. Some Trusts have developed excellent promotional literature and strategies, but there could be a greater degree of sharing of ideas and cross fertilization to avoid reinventing the wheel. Few Trusts had developed partnerships, although local government was the most frequent partner.     

The influence of institutional design on local environmental interest representation in the national polity

This article investigates structural and informal institutional design variables to account for civil society actors’ views on the political representation of local environmental interests in the national polity. It does so by linking literature on institutional design and place-based environmental advocacy to a case of large scale infrastructure development in the national interest. The case study concerns the proposal for a national high speed rail network (“HS2”) in the United Kingdom, which is heavily opposed locally based on its expected adverse impacts. Through fieldwork research on protest against HS2 in an area of high landscape value, it has been found that local actors perceived specific institutions to structurally under-represent interests associated with environmental conservation, compounded further by an informal style of doing politics. The paper recommends that the environmental management and planning literature turns to institutional explanations to make insightful the dynamics of defending the local interest in the national sphere.     

Watershed management and the Web

Watershed analysis and watershed management are developing as tools of integrated ecological and economic study. They also assist decision-making at the regional scale. The new technology and thinking offered by the advent of the Internet and the World Wide Web is highly complementary to some of the goals of watershed analysis. Services delivered by the Web are open, interactive, fast, spatially distributed, hierarchical and flexible. The Web offers the ability to display information creatively, to interact with that information and to change and modify it remotely. In this way the Internet provides a much-needed opportunity to deliver scientific findings and information to stakeholders and to link stakeholders together providing for collective decision-making. The benefits fall into two major categories: methodological and educational. Methodologically the approach furthers the watershed management concept, offering an avenue for practical implementation of watershed management principles. For educational purposes the Web is a source of data and insight serving a variety of needs at all levels. We use the Patuxent River case study to illustrate the web-based approach to watershed management. A watershed scale simulation model is built for the Patuxent area and it serves as a core for watershed management design based on web applications. It integrates the knowledge available for the Patuxent area in a comprehensive and systematic format, and provides a conceptual basis for understanding the performance of the watershed as a system. Moreover, the extensive data collection and conceptualisation required within the framework of the modeling effort stimulates close contact with the environmental management community. This is further enhanced by offering access to the modeling results and the data sets over the Web. Additional web applications and links are provided to increase awareness and involvement of stakeholders in the watershed management process. We argue that it is not the amount and quality of information that is crucial for the success of watershed management, but how well the information is disseminated, shared and used by the stakeholders. In this respect the Web offers a wealth of opportunities for the decision-making process, but still to be answered are the questions at what scale and how widely will the Web be accepted as a management tool, and how can watershed management benefit from web applications.     

Decision support tools for collaborative marine spatial planning: identifying potential sites for tidal energy devices around the Mull of Kintyre,Scotland

The expansion of offshore renewable energy production, such as wind, wave and tidal energy, is likely to lead to conflict between different users of the sea. Two types of spatial decision support tools were developed to support stakeholder workshops. A value mapping tool combines regional attributes with local knowledge. A negotiation support tool uses these value maps to support stakeholders in finding acceptable locations for tidal energy devices. Interactive value mapping proved useful to address deficiencies in data and to create credibility for these maps. The negotiation tool helped stakeholders in balancing objectives of the various stakeholders.     

A multi-agent simulation model for spatial optimisation of manure allocation

The EU Nitrate Directive has spurred many countries to regulate manure production and manure application. Farmers have three allocation options: spreading manure on their own land, transporting manure to other farmers' land or processing manure. The manure problem can be seen as an allocation problem. To better understand this allocation problem, we have developed the spatial mathematical programming multi-agent simulation (MP-MAS) model. This model has been applied in Flanders, Belgium, a region with a high concentration of livestock. The model evaluates the cost efficiency of policy intervention in the manure market through obliged processing. We propose to further optimise the policy using a regionally differentiated manure pressure indicator, which is directly derived from the dual outcome of the mathematical programme. This indicator increases transparency in the manure and processing market, leading to better decision support about location and type of manure processing.     

Assessing hydrological impact of potential land use change through hydrological and land use change modeling for the Kishwaukee River basin (USA)

We connected a cellular, dynamic, spatial urban growth model and a semi-distributed continuous hydrology model to quantitatively predict streamflow in response to possible future urban growth at a basin scale. The main goal was to demonstrate the utility of the approach for informing public planning policy and investment choices. The Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) was set up and calibrated for the Kishwaukee River basin in the Midwestern USA and was repeatedly run with various land use scenarios generated either by the urban growth model (LEAMluc) or hypothetically. The results indicate that (1) the land use scenarios generated by LEAMluc result in little changes in total runoff but some noticeable changes in surface flow; (2) the argument that low flows tend to decrease with more urbanized areas in a basin was confirmed in this study but the selection of indicators for low flows can result in misleading conclusions; (3) dynamic simulation modeling by connecting a distributed land use change model and a semi-distributed hydrological model can be a good decision support tool demanding reasonable amount of efforts and capable of long-term scenario-based assessments.     

Hydrologic modeling as a predictive basis for ecological restoration of salt marshes

Roads, bridges, causeways, impoundments, and dikes in the coastal zone often restrict tidal flow to salt marsh ecosystems. A dike with tide control structures, located at the mouth of the Herring River salt marsh estuarine system (Wellfleet, Massachusetts) since 1908, has effectively restricted tidal exchange, causing changes in marsh vegetation composition, degraded water quality, and reduced abundance of fish and macroinvertebrate communities. Restoration of this estuary by reintroduction of tidal exchange is a feasible management alternative. However, restoration efforts must proceed with caution as residential dwellings and a golf course are located immediately adjacent to and in places within the tidal wetland. A numerical model was developed to predict tide height levels for numerous alternative openings through the Herring River dike. Given these model predictions and knowledge of elevations of flood-prone areas, it becomes possible to make responsible decisions regarding restoration. Moreover, tidal flooding elevations relative to the wetland surface must be known to predict optimum conditions for ecological recovery. The tide height model has a universal role, as demonstrated by successful application at a nearby salt marsh restoration site in Provincetown, Massachusetts. Salt marsh restoration is a valuable management tool toward maintaining and enhancing coastal zone habitat diversity. The tide height model presented in this paper will enable both scientists and resource professionals to assign a degree of predictability when designing salt marsh restoration programs.     

A review on the integration of artificial intelligence into coastal modeling

With the development of computing technology, mechanistic models are often employed to simulate processes in coastal environments. However, these predictive tools are inevitably highly specialized, involving certain assumptions and/or limitations, and can be manipulated only by experienced engineers who have a thorough understanding of the underlying theories. This results in significant constraints on their manipulation as well as large gaps in understanding and expectations between the developers and practitioners of a model. The recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies are making it possible to integrate machine learning capabilities into numerical modeling systems in order to bridge the gaps and lessen the demands on human experts. The objective of this paper is to review the state-of-the-art in the integration of different AI technologies into coastal modeling. The algorithms and methods studied include knowledge-based systems, genetic algorithms, artificial neural networks, and fuzzy inference systems. More focus is given to knowledge-based systems, which have apparent advantages over the others in allowing more transparent transfers of knowledge in the use of models and in furnishing the intelligent manipulation of calibration parameters. Of course, the other AI methods also have their individual contributions towards accurate and reliable predictions of coastal processes. The integrated model might be very powerful, since the advantages of each technique can be combined.     

Economic simulation modeling of reprocessing alternatives for corn masa byproducts

Increasing production of corn masa for tortillas, chips, and related snack foods is resulting in large quantities of organic residuals requiring environmentally sound management. These byproduct streams appear suitable for use as livestock feed material, thus eliminating landfilling costs. Possibilities for developing livestock feed include direct shipping to livestock feeding facilities, blending prior to shipping, extrusion processing, pellet mill processing, and dehydration. To assess the viability of these options for reprocessing masa byproducts as livestock feed materials, an economic model was developed and applied to each of these alternatives. Through a series of simulation runs with this model, it was determined that direct shipping was by far the most inexpensive means of recycling masa processing residuals (10–57 $/Mg). Other alternatives examined in increasing order of costs included blending prior to shipping, extrusion, pellet mill processing (3–15, 5–18, and 4–18 times greater than direct shipping, respectively), while dehydration was clearly cost-prohibitive (33–81 times greater). Bagged feed was slightly more expensive to produce than bulk feed (1.1 times greater), and reprocessing costs increased as delivery distance increased, due to increased labor, equipment, and fuel costs, but decreased as byproduct generation rate increased, due to the development of the economies of scale. Alternately, based on a tipping fee of 50 $/Mg, the total estimated cost to landfill ranged from 65 to 112 $/Mg. Based on this cost analysis, direct shipping and feeding to livestock is the recycling option of choice for masa processing byproducts. Although specific details of process configurations and associated costs will vary, similar results are likely for other high moisture food processing residuals destined for utilization as livestock feed or components thereof.     

The post-political nature of marine spatial planning and modalities for its re-politicisation

ABSTRACT

Marine spatial planning (MSP) has become the most adopted approach for sustainable marine governance. While MSP has transformative capacity, evaluations of its implementation illustrate large gaps between how it is conceptualised and how it is practiced. We argue that these gaps arise from MSP being implemented through post-political processes. Although MSP has been explored through post-political lenses, these evaluations are incomplete and do not provide sufficient detail about the complex nature of the post-political condition. Drawing on seminal literature, we conceptualise the post-political as consisting of highly interconnected modalities of depoliticisation, including: neoliberalism; choreographed participation; path dependency; technocratic-managerialism; and the illusion of progressive change. Using these modalities as an analytical framework, we evaluate English MSP and find that it focuses on entrenching neoliberal logic through: tokenistic participation; wholescale adoption of path-dependent solutions; obstructionist deployment of inactive technological solutions; and promising progressive change. We do not, however, view the post-political condition as unresolvable and we develop a suite of suggestions for the re-politicisation of MSP which, collectively, could form the basis for more radical forms of MSP.     

An integrated fuzzy-stochastic modeling approach for risk assessment of groundwater contamination

An integrated fuzzy-stochastic risk assessment (IFSRA) approach was developed in this study to systematically quantify both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties associated with site conditions, environmental guidelines, and health impact criteria. The contaminant concentrations in groundwater predicted from a numerical model were associated with probabilistic uncertainties due to the randomness in modeling input parameters, while the consequences of contaminant concentrations violating relevant environmental quality guidelines and health evaluation criteria were linked with fuzzy uncertainties. The contaminant of interest in this study was xylene. The environmental quality guideline was divided into three different strictness categories: "loose", "medium" and "strict". The environmental-guideline-based risk (ER) and health risk (HR) due to xylene ingestion were systematically examined to obtain the general risk levels through a fuzzy rule base. The ER and HR risk levels were divided into five categories of "low", "low-to-medium", "medium", "medium-to-high" and "high", respectively. The general risk levels included six categories ranging from "low" to "very high". The fuzzy membership functions of the related fuzzy events and the fuzzy rule base were established based on a questionnaire survey. Thus the IFSRA integrated fuzzy logic, expert involvement, and stochastic simulation within a general framework. The robustness of the modeling processes was enhanced through the effective reflection of the two types of uncertainties as compared with the conventional risk assessment approaches. The developed IFSRA was applied to a petroleum-contaminated groundwater system in western Canada. Three scenarios with different environmental quality guidelines were analyzed, and reasonable results were obtained. The risk assessment approach developed in this study offers a unique tool for systematically quantifying various uncertainties in contaminated site management, and it also provides more realistic support for remediation-related decisions.     

The practice of valuing the environment in cost-benefit analyses in transport and spatial projects

Scientific debates on environmental impacts in cost-benefit analysis (CBA) focus on methodological questions. The literature, however, contains very little information on the influence of these debates on CBAs made in spatial planning practice. In this paper, this gap is filled by a qualitative analysis of 67 CBAs made in the Netherlands between 2000 and 2011. From the literature on environmental valuation, we derive criteria to evaluate the quality of CBA practice, such as completeness and the inclusion of uncertainties. The analysis shows that in many cases relevant environmental effects are omitted or not monetised. Moreover, non-monetised effects are often not included in CBA conclusions. If impacts are monetised, the methods used are frequently not very sophisticated. The consequences of assumptions are often not communicated, for example, where high discount rates make long-term effects seem unimportant. In this research we identify four main points for good practice.     

Valuing the benefits of the urban forest: a spatial hedonic approach

This paper measures the benefits of the urban forest by examining its effect on housing prices. A Geographic Information System is used to develop a measure of the urban forest, the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index, from satellite imagery and to construct other variables from a variety of sources. Spatial hedonic housing price models for the Indianapolis/Marion County area are estimated. The models indicate that greener vegetation around a property has a positive, significant effect on housing price, holding everything else constant. This effect is dominated by measures at the neighborhood level. These findings indicate that property owners value the urban forest, at least in part, by the premium they pay to live in neighborhoods with greener, denser vegetation. These findings also indicate that public action to maintain and enhance the urban forest may be warranted. Planners and urban foresters can use these findings to inform public and policy debates over urban forestry programs and proposals.     

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of agro-ecological modeling for saffron plant cultivation using GIS spatial decision-making methods

The main objective of this research is to model the uncertainty associated with GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for crop suitability assessment. To achieve this goal, an integrated approach using GIS-MCDA in association with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) and global sensitivity analysis (GSA) were applied for Saffron suitability mapping in East-Azerbaijan Province in Iran. The results of this study indicated that integration of MCDA with MCS and GSA could improve modeling precision by reducing data variance. Results indicated that applying the MCS method using the local training data leads to computing the spatial correlation between criteria weights and characteristics of the study area. Results of the GSA method also allow us to obtain the priority of criteria and identify the most important criteria and the variability of outputs under uncertainty conditions for model inputs. The findings showed that, commonly used primary zoning methods, without considering the interaction effects of variables, had significant errors and uncertainty in the output of MCDA-based suitability models, which should be minimized by the advanced complementarity of sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.     

海洋石油开发周边海域重金属锌的时空分布特征研究

海洋石油开发过程中重金属锌对海洋的影响日益受到关注。依据曹妃甸油田群海域2010—2018年长期海洋环境监测数据,采用克里金插值法和Hakanson生态风险指数法,分析了海域重金属锌的变化趋势、时空分布特征和潜在生态风险,探讨了可能来源并提出减缓措施。结果表明：研究海域海水水质锌呈现先降低后升高的趋势,平均含量2010年5月最高。2010年5月沉积物锌含量为(44.9±14.3)×10^-6低于渤海表层沉积物锌含量背景值(67.6±17.0)×10^-6。各期监测结果显示,油田区域未形成明显锌高值区。陆源排污、河流入海携带、航运、大气湿沉降等是研究海域重金属锌的重要来源。     

Laying the foundation for a comprehensive program of restoration for wildlife habitat in a riparian floodplain

We analyzed the past and current distribution and abundance of vegetation and wildlife to develop a wildlife habitat restoration plan for the Sweetwater Regional Park, San Diego County, California. Overall, there has been a substantial loss of native amphibians and reptiles, including four amphibians, three lizards, and 11 snake species. The small-mammal community was depauperate and dominated by the exotic house mouse (Mus musculus) and the native western harvest mouse (Reithrodontomys megalotis). It appeared that either house mice are exerting a negative influence on most native species or that they are responding positively to habitat degradation. There has apparently been a net loss of 13 mammal species, including nine insectivores and rodents, a rabbit, and three large mammals. Willow (Salix) cover and density and cottonwoods (Populus fremontii) had the highest number of positive correlations with bird abundance. There has been an overall net loss of 12 breeding bird species; this includes an absolute loss of 18 species and a gain of six species. A restoration plan is described that provides for creation and maintenance of willow riparian, riparian woodland, and coastal sage scrub vegetation types; guides for separation of human activities and wildlife habitats; and management of feral and exotic species of plants and animals.     

Carbon isotope ratios in logged and unlogged boreal forests: Examination of the potential for determining wildlife habitat use

Due to assimilation of recycled CO₂ from litter decomposition and photosynthetic changes in carbon fractionation at low light levels, the foliage at the base of a forest is often more depleted in¹³C compared to that exposed to the atmosphere in either the canopy or in open clearings. This is referred to as the canopy effect. African research has indicated that these habitat differences in foliar ¹³C can be substantial enough to affect the carbon isotope ratios of resident fauna. Previous work documenting a 30-year chronology on moose teeth from Isle Royale National Park indicated a progressive depletion in¹³C and suggested that this could be due to forest regrowth following extensive burning. The present study examined the assumption implicit in this hypothesis that foliar ¹³C varies between open and closed boreal forest sites. I found a marginal canopy effect of 2 ¹³C difference between upper canopy and ground flora for a forest in northwestern Ontario and an average difference of 1.2 in under- and mid-story vegetation between closed forests and open clear-cuts. Because of these small differences, the utility of carbon isotope analysis in quantifying temporally integrated exploitation of deforested habitats will be low for northern boreal locations. In denser forests, such as those in the tropics or western North American where the canopy effect can be expected to be much greater, ¹³C analysis may still offer some promise for determining selection by wildlife of disturbed habitats.