基于ANSYS的界面化核电站取水构筑物配筋程序开发

在实际工程应用中,对于结构复杂安全等级高的核电水工结构,相关的通用设计软件尚未形成。利用ANSYS二次开发工具APDL、UIDL以及Tcl/Tk可视化工具命令语言,针对核电站取水构筑物开发了一整套程序,包括了建模、计算以及后处理,后处理部分为内力计算和配筋可视化程序,简化了操作流程。算例表明,内力提取程序运算结果精度良好,可以用于配筋设计,利用配筋可视化程序对工程实例进行的配筋及裂缝验算,结果符合工程要求,针对配筋结果提出了墙体优化设计的建议。通过在ANSYS中实现内力计算和可视化配筋程序,可用于解决核电水工结构设计问题,有良好的工程适用性。     

Repetitive flood victims and acceptance of FEMA mitigation offers: an analysis with community-system policy implications

Of all natural disasters, flooding causes the greatest amount of economic and social damage. The United States' Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) uses a number of hazard mitigation grant programmes for flood victims, including mitigation offers to relocate permanently repetitive flood loss victims. This study examines factors that help to explain the degree of difficulty repetitive flood loss victims experience when they make decisions about relocating permanently after multiple flood losses. Data are drawn from interviews with FEMA officials and a survey of flood victims from eight repetitive flooding sites. The qualitative and quantitative results show the importance of rational choices by flood victims in their mitigation decisions, as they relate to financial variables, perceptions of future risk, attachments to home and community, and the relationships between repetitive flood loss victims and the local flood management officials who help them. The results offer evidence to suggest the value of a more community-system approach to FEMA relocation practices.     

Official sources,news outlets,or search engines? Rumour validation on social media during Hurricanes Harvey and Irma

This study, based on data collected from a representative sample of adults in the United States, explores the social cognitive variables that motivated Americans to validate rumours on social media about Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, both of which struck in August/September 2017. The results indicate that risk perception and negative emotions are positively related to systematic processing of relevant risk information, and that systematic processing is significantly related to rumour validation through search engines such as Google. In contrast, trust in information about the hurricane is significantly related to validation through official sources, such as FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), and major news outlets such as The New York Times. Trust in information is also significantly related to systematic processing of risk information. The findings of this study suggest that ordinary citizens may be motivated to validate rumours on social media, which is an increasingly important issue in contemporary societies.     

A national and local media perspective on responsibility for and solutions to storm-related power outages in the northeastern United States

Major storms in the northeastern United States in 2011 and 2012 caused widespread power outages, bringing attention to the vulnerability of utility infrastructure as a result of extreme weather and environmental change. Media coverage of such focusing events provides context for and can affect government and public response. Our objective was to analyze gatekeeping, agenda setting, and framing in the New York Times (NYT) and local newspapers covering power outages related to large storm events in 2011 and 2012 (Tropical Storm Irene, October snowstorm, Hurricane Sandy). Government and utility officials focused on structural solutions to mitigate future storm impacts, whereas residents and businesses targeted individual actions. NYT interviews included residents more frequently than local newspapers, influencing coverage of impacts and solutions. Geographic differences between NYT and local newspapers’ foci may relate to coverage of solutions to and responsibility for outages. Our findings demonstrate the importance of collective action toward shared solutions.     

Profile of Mortality from the 1989 Loma Prieta Earthquake using Coroner and Medical Examiner Reports

Mortality patterns from earthquakes in the United States may differ from those observed in other parts of the world. We reviewed coroner and medical examiner records for all investigated deaths from seven California counties for 15 days following the Loma Prieta earthquake of October 17, 1989 (N = 327). Data on the circumstances surrounding death were used to classify each case as directly earthquakerelated, indirectly earthquake-related, or not earthquake-related. Fifty-seven deaths were judged as directly earthquake-related. Six other deaths were indirectly related. Ten circumstances accounted for all directly earthquake-related deaths, with the collapse of an elevated freeway accounting for 40 of these deaths. Forty-six (80.8 per cent) of the 57 directly earthquake-related deaths occurred in motor vehicles on public roadways. Fifty-three (93.0 per cent) of the directly earthquake-related deaths occurred within seconds or minutes of injury. Future earthquake deaths in the United States may best be prevented by identifying and modifying seismic hazards in earthquake-prone regions, particularly transportation structures.     

A microcomputer-based emergency response system*

A microcomputer-based system was developed to provide local officials responsible for disaster management with assistance during the crucial period immediately following a disaster, a period when incorrect decisions could have an adverse impact on the surrounding community.
While the paper focuses on a potential disaster resulting from an accident at a commercial nuclear power generating facility, the system can be applied to other disastrous situations. Decisions involving evacuation, shelter and the deployment of resources must be made in response to floods, earthquakes, accidents in the transportation of hazardous materials, and hurricanes to name a few examples.
As a decision aid, the system was designed to enhance data display by presenting the data in the form of representations (i.e. road maps, evacuation routes, etc.) as well as in list or tabular form. The potential impact of the event (i.e. the release of radioactive material) was displayed in the form of a cloud, representing the dispersion of the radioactive material. In addition, an algorithm was developed to assist the manager in assigning response resources to demands.
The capability for modelling the impact of a disaster is discussed briefly, with reference to a system installed in the communities surrounding the Indian Point nuclear power plant in New York State.
Results demonstrate both the technical feasibility of incorporating microcomputers indecision support systems for radiological emergency response, and the acceptance of such systems by those public officials responsible for implementing the response plans.     

Damage to Urban Infrastructure and Other Public Property from the 1989 Loma Prieta (California) Earthquake

This research project investigated the damage to public property caused by the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. The claims filed by state and local governments, special districts and non-profit organizations under the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) disaster assistance program were analyzed to understand better the pattern of damage caused by the earthquake. These claims accounted for nearly $600 million. The damage distribution was very skewed with eleven agencies claiming more than 70 per cent of this total. Non-profit agencies accounted for a surprisingly large portion of overall damage. Heavy damage was concentrated in relatively few areas. The extent of damage in an area was a function of concentration of property, site conditions, characteristics of building stock, and distance from the epicenter.     

Predicting support for non‐pharmaceutical interventions during infectious outbreaks: a four region analysis

Non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are an important public health tool for responding to infectious disease outbreaks, including pandemics. However, little is known about the individual characteristics associated with support for NPIs, or whether they are consistent across regions. This study draws on survey data from four regions—Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, and the United States—collected following the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) outbreak of 2002–03, and employs regression techniques to estimate predictors of NPI support. It finds that characteristics associated with NPI support vary widely by region, possibly because of cultural variation and prior experience, and that minority groups tend to be less supportive of NPIs when arrest is the consequence of noncompliance. Prior experience of face‐mask usage also results in increased support for future usage, as well as other NPIs. Policymakers should be attentive to local preferences and to the application of compulsory interventions. It is speculated here that some public health interventions may serve as ‘gateway’ exposures to future public health interventions.     

Immediate and long-term assistance following the bombing of the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania

On 7 August 1998 truck bombs destroyed the US Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania.(1) The response in both countries was characterised by an absence of incident command, limited pre-hospital care, a disorganised hospital response and a lack of transportation for those injured. In the next five years USD 50 million was provided by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) to alleviate the resulting suffering, support reconstruction and strengthen disaster preparedness capacity in the two countries. These two programmes have enhanced awareness of disaster management issues, improved training capacity, built response structures and provided material resources. Their design and implementation provide lessons for future disasters in developing countries. The assistance programmes evolved very differently. In Kenya the programme largely excluded the public sector and the potential for government coordination, while the Tanzanian programme concentrated heavily on central government and regional hospital structures-largely omitting the non-governmental or civil society sector. Excluding key stakeholders raises concerns about programme sustainability and the ability to respond effectively to future emergencies.     

中国建筑抗震设计规范的演变与展望

地震区划图是编制抗震设计规范的基础资料。本文回顾了中国地震区划图和建筑抗震设计规范的发展简史,对1 956、1977、1990和2001年编制的中国地震区划图进行了简要比较,指出了4代区划图的差异;对1959、1964、1974、1989和2002年编制的中国建筑抗震设计规范或草案的抗震设计原则进行了比较,详细比较了5部规范或草案中关于地震作用的计算方法、场地分类和地基抗震有关规定的异同点,简要讨论了建筑抗震设计规范的发展方向。     

Interactions between scientific uncertainty and flood management decisions: Two case studies in Colorado

Flood management policies in the United States rely on scientific information about the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and runoff. Yet, the available information is inherently uncertain because of the complexity of meteorological and hydrological processes. In mountainous areas, flood risk can vary greatly even within short distances depending on local climate, topography, soil characteristics, and land use. This paper describes two Colorado cases in which policy makers were presented with conflicting scientific estimates: revision of the Fort Collins floodplain map and modification of the Cherry Creek Dam. The case studies demonstrate that uncertainty can have substantial impacts on regulatory processes, public safety, and costs. The analysis considers the differing perspectives of various participants in the flood management processes, illustrating the interplay between uncertainties attributable to scientific issues and values issues. It suggests that attempts to provide a single “best” estimate do not necessarily meet the decision needs of all stakeholders. Conclusions indicate a need to improve communication about uncertainty when scientific estimates areprovided to decision makers. Furthermore, in highly controversial decisions, it may be necessary to reframe the discussion to consider the values issues raised by scientific uncertainty.     

Disaster journalism: fostering citizen and community disaster mitigation,preparedness, response,recovery, and resilience across the disaster cycle

Natural and human‐caused disasters pose a significant risk to the health and well‐being of people. Journalists and news organisations can fulfil multiple roles related to disasters, ranging from providing warnings, assessing disaster mitigation and preparedness, and reporting on what occurs, to aiding long‐term recovery and fostering disaster resilience. This paper considers these possible functions of disaster journalism and draws on semi‐structured interviews with 24 journalists in the United States to understand better their approach to the discipline. A thematic analysis was employed, which resulted in the identification of five main themes and accompanying subthemes: (i) examining disaster mitigation and preparedness; (ii) facilitating recovery; (iii) self‐care and care of journalists; (iv) continued spread of social media; and (v) disaster journalism ethics. The paper concludes that disaster journalism done poorly can result in harm, but done well, it can be an essential instrument with respect to public disaster planning, management, response, and recovery.     

Mother Nature versus human nature: public compliance with evacuation and quarantine

Effectively controlling the spread of contagious illnesses has become a critical focus of disaster planning. It is likely that quarantine will be a key part of the overall public health strategy utilised during a pandemic, an act of bioterrorism or other emergencies involving contagious agents. While the United States lacks recent experience of large-scale quarantines, it has considerable accumulated experience of large-scale evacuations. Risk perception, life circumstance, work-related issues, and the opinions of influential family, friends and credible public spokespersons all play a role in determining compliance with an evacuation order. Although the comparison is not reported elsewhere to our knowledge, this review of the principal factors affecting compliance with evacuations demonstrates many similarities with those likely to occur during a quarantine. Accurate identification and understanding of barriers to compliance allows for improved planning to protect the public more effectively.     

基于GIS的南通市自然灾害风险区划

本文从自然致灾因子危险性和承灾体易损性2个方面选取评价指标,在南通市基础图件的基础上,通过GIS软件分析分别得到南通市自然致灾因子危险性分区图和社会经济易损性分区图.两图叠加后,生成南通市自然灾害风险区划基本单元,采用自下而上的定量区划方法,合并得到自然灾害风险区划图,最后分别论述了每个风险区的自然灾害和社会经济的特征.通过对风险区划指标和区域划分的探讨,以期为南通市防灾减灾工作提供科学依据.     

Making building codes an effective tool for earthquake hazard mitigation

Abstract

Investigators picking through the debris left by the Northridge earthquake in 1994 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 found building codes had not provided the degree of protection against damage that many expected. We provide evidence that the problems of code enforcement in the United States that were uncovered for these events are not unique. We show the seismic provisions of codes receive low priority for enforcement by many local building departments, even in areas of moderate to high seismic hazard. Drawing lessons from experience in the United States with programs to foster greater energy efficiency in buildings, we discuss how the federal government and states can make building codes a more effective tool for earthquake hazard mitigation. Although the lessons we draw are specific to the United States, the broader implications of this research concern the role of higher-level governments in motivating local governments to address risks posed by natural hazards.     

Mapping the public first-aid training landscape: a scoping review

While the public can play a vital role in saving lives during emergencies, intervention is only effective if people have the skills, confidence, and willingness to help. This review employs a five-stage framework to systematically analyse first aid and emergency helping literature from 22 countries (predominately in Asia, Australia, Europe, and the United States). The review covers 54 articles that investigate public first-aid knowledge and uptake of first-aid training (40); public confidence in first-aid skills and willingness to help during an emergency (21); and barriers to or enablers of learning first aid and delivering first aid in an emergency (25). The findings identify high levels of perceived knowledge, confidence, and willingness to help, supporting the contention that the public can play a vital role during an emergency. However, the findings also point to low uptake levels, low tested skill-specific knowledge, and barriers to learning first aid and helping, indicating that the first-aid training landscape is in need of improvement.     

A critique of the official report on the evacuation of the World Trade Center: continued doubts

This paper criticises the conclusions and the unanswered questions in the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)'s official report on the evacuation of the World Trade Center in New York City, United States, on 11 September 2001. It reviews the extent to which the report disregards several conventional statistical methods and comments on the NIST's refusal to share the machine‐readable data file with the scientific community for replication and further analysis. Problems lie in the sampling methods employed, the treatment of missing data, the use of ordinary least squares (OLS) with binary dependent variables, the failure to document the scalability of the scales used, the lack of tests to check for constant error variance, and the absence of overall fit tests of the model. There are also conceptual and theoretical issues, such as the absence in the report of considerations of the influence of group‐level processes and their impact on the collective behaviour of evacuating collectivities.     

Preparedness for emergency response: guidelines for the emergency planning process

Especially since the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, governments worldwide have invested considerable resources in the writing of terrorism emergency response plans. Particularly in the United States, the federal government has created new homeland security organisations and urged state and local governments to draw up plans. This emphasis on the written plan tends to draw attention away from the process of planning itself and the original objective of achieving community emergency preparedness. This paper reviews the concepts of community preparedness and emergency planning, and their relationships with training, exercises and the written plan. A series of 10 planning process guidelines are presented that draw upon the preparedness literature for natural and technological disasters, and can be applied to any environmental threat.     

Variations in public and private employees’ perceptions of organizational preparedness for natural disasters

Studies have demonstrated that public and private organizations differ in many respects (e.g. funding mechanisms and risk-taking capabilities). Based on this scholarship, we expect to see differences in their disaster preparedness levels. Hence, we propose the following research question: Are there variations in public and private employees’ perceptions of organizational preparedness for natural disasters? We answer this question by employing the theories of publicness and social identity. We define publicness through the core approach arguing that public and private organizations are uniquely different based on their legal status or ownership and social identity as an individual’s feeling of oneness or belongingness to a particular group or organization. Using data gathered in 2014 from a nationally representative sample of 1634 public and private employees in the United States, we posit that employees of private organizations will report higher preparedness levels in comparison to employees of public organizations. Our proposition is based on scholarship that found a negative relationship between publicness and organizational identification and a positive relationship between organizational identification and organizational performance. Contrary to our proposition, but in line with the disaster literature, the results showed that in general, employees of public organizations reported a higher preparedness level than employees of private organizations.