重温过去：使《21世纪议程》焕发新活力以保护人与环境

在可持续生产与消费方向上取得进展的一种途径,就是重温关于改变消费与生产方式的《２１世纪议程》第４章并使之焕发新活力。该第４章并非１９９２年地球高峰会议的最突出成就,但近年来它的地位已经提高。目前正在发展一批相关手段（例如,关于生态效率、４倍／１０倍、生态税收改革）,虽然它们会如何实施往往并不清楚,强调普遍适用手段与政策设计的失败,就在于这分散了地方、地区或国家实践与优先考虑的注意力。     

《生物多样性评估指标及其案例研究》一书出版

生物多样性是人类赖以生存和发展的物质基础,我国是世界上生物多样性最丰富的国家之一。随着我国生物多样性管理和履行《生物多样性公约》的逐步深入,生物多样性保护工作面临着严峻挑战。目前,我国生物多样性的管理方式粗放,许多地区存在着家底不清、问题不明、措施不力的问题。生物多样性评价是一种反映复杂环境问题、表征生物多样性整体状况和趋势的概括性的数据和信。     

气候变化对树轮异常结构的影响及应用研究进展

树轮异常结构作为反映气候变化的一个重要参数,已被广大生态学家所重视并应用。树轮异常结构包括霜轮、浅轮、伪轮、畸形木材反应木、树脂道、火疤等。这些异常年轮结构与温度、降水、光照等气候因子有着复杂的相关关系。温度对年轮异常结构的影响主要表现在低温对形成层生长的抑制作用,从而形成霜轮、浅轮。生长期内干旱,形成层生长时间短,甚至使形成层生长减慢或停止,从而形成伪轮。高强度的光照会引起高温少雨,加剧旱情的发生,从而导致伪轮。另外,通过对树轮异常结构的分析,可用这些特征来重建森林干扰的历史,如火山喷发、火灾、冰灾、虫害、旱灾、地震等。这些研究在帮助人们了解和研究古气候变化对森林植被的影响,以及预测未来全球变化对陆地生态系统的影响有重要的理论和现实意义。文章综述了气候变化对树轮异常结构的影响的研究进展和应用,并概述了发展前景,希望能加快和拓宽这一领域的发展。     

区域及全球尺度的NPP过程模型和NPP对全球变化的响应

植被净第一性生产力（NPP）不仅是表征植被活动和生态过程的关键参数,而且是判定生态系统碳汇和反映生态系统对全球变化响应的主要因子。当前,模型模拟成为大尺度NPP研究的主要手段,而在众多NPP估算模型中,过程模型逐渐趋于主导地位。虽然目前有关NPP的研究有很多,但还没有关注于大尺度上应用的过程模型及其模拟的NPP对全球变化的响应。因此本文主要侧重于 NPP 过程模型在区域及全球尺度上的应用,具体包含以下内容,①进一步将区域及全球尺度的NPP过程模型分为静态植被模型和动态植被模型。②阐明这些模型间存在的区别与联系。③归纳出NPP过程模型在区域及全球尺度上应用的3大挑战：时空尺度转换、多源数据的获取与融合以及模型模拟结果的验证与评价,并根据其解决方案总结出通用的模型应用框架。④从气候变化、大气成分变化和土地利用/土地覆盖变化3个方面探讨NPP对全球变化的响应机制,以期找到NPP变化的规律与模式。最后根据NPP模型的发展对未来区域及全球尺度的NPP过程模型进行展望,认为未来模型的综合性将更高,机理性也将更强,同时与全球变化研究结合得更加紧密,且基于多个已有模型的混合模型也是未来NPP模型发展的一个重要方向。此外,本文认为对NPP模拟结果的尺度效应研究也是未来NPP研究的热点之一。     

气候变化背景下中国陆地生态系统碳储量及碳通量研究进展

全球气候变化对全球生态系统的结构、功能和过程产生了重要影响,成为各国政府、社会公众以及科学界共同关心的焦点问题。陆地生态系统碳循环又是当前气候变化和区域可持续发展研究的核心内容之一,影响到经济和社会发展的各个方面。因此,开展陆地生态系统碳储量和碳通量的研究仍将是气候变化研究中的重点内容。总结了近年来国内森林、土壤、草地、农田四种陆地生态系统在碳储量、碳通量方面取得的研究成果和不足：随着遥感、GIS及模型的发展和应用,森林、草地生态系统碳储量的研究精度和范围要高于农田和土壤,而农田和土壤生态系统碳储量的研究多基于典型性样地和大量实验数据,结果受制于样点布设和采样密度;目前,土壤生态系统碳储量结果多基于上世纪80年代全国二次土壤普查数据计算所得,且总有机碳库的估算存在较大差异,土壤有机碳的组分研究中易氧化有机碳库研究滞后于总有机碳,迫切需要对我国现有土壤有机碳进行研究;农田生态系统受人类活动干扰强烈,从一个或几个站点到全国尺度都有对农田土壤有机碳贮量的研究成果,与国外相比,我国试验田的设置时间短,资料积累较少,更多侧重不同施肥方式下农作物产量和农田合理的施肥培肥模式研究,农田土壤有机碳含量关系我国农业生产和粮食安全,对农田土壤固碳机理的研究仍将是今后关注的焦点。各生态系统碳通量的监测取得了一定成果,近年来涡度相关系统在森林、土壤、草地、农田生态系统中得到了广泛的应用。并从气候、人类活动两个因素分析了其对生态系统碳储量、碳通量的影响。针对目前存在的问题,进一步指出了目前国内不同生态系统中碳循环在现状研究、有机碳变化机制、模型建立及气候变化和人类活动影响下的碳库时空格局方面得到加强。     

PM2.5: global progress in controlling the motor vehicle contribution

It is well established that ambient particles in the size range of 2.5 microns or less case a wide variety of adverse health effects. According to a recent study from the World Health Organization, in 2010 these effects resulted in approximately 3.2million premature deaths with vehicles being one of the significant contributors. Diesel vehicle particulate emissions which are virtually all smaller than 2.5 microns raise additional special concerns due to their carcinogenicity and high ratio of black carbon （BC） to organic carbon; black carbon has recently been found to be the second most important contributor to climate change after carbon dioxide. Other pollutants emitted by diesels and other vehicles such as the oxides of nitrogen and volatile organic compounds also contribute to ambient particulate matter smaller than 2.5 microns in size （PM2.5） after undergoing secondary transformations in the atrno- sphere. Technologies have dramatically reduce vehicle been developed that can emissions when clean, low sulfur fuels are available and these technologies are being phased in throughout the industrialized world resulting in a global decrease in particulate matter （PM） and BC emissions from vehicles. However the vehicle population is growing rapidly in the developing world, leading to increases in emissions in many countries. Unless these rapidly industrializing countries move to state of the art vehicles and clean fuels, global PM, BC and NOx emissions from road vehicles will start to turn up over the next 10 to 15 years.     

Influence of temperature on the heavy metals accumulation of five vegetable species in semiarid area of northwest China

The aim of the present study was to investigate the possible effects of temperature on cadmium (Cd), lead (Pb), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn) accumulation in five vegetable species collected at different sites (Shuichuan, Beiwan, Dongwan and Wufe) in northwest China. The meteorological data of air and soil temperatures were recorded daily during the period from sowing to harvest for the five vegetables. The air and soil temperatures affected the capacity of pumpkin, cabbage, brassica napus and Chinese cabbage to accumulate Zn, Cd, Cu and Pb. Principal component analysis showed that temperature, photosynthetic and physiological factors all contributed to the soil–plant transfer properties of DTPA-extractable heavy metals. Temperature played a more important role in Cd, Pb, Cu and Zn accumulation in four vegetables in this semiarid area. However, the enormous surface area of spinach was likely to elevate heavy metal loads owing to atmospheric deposits. For most vegetables studied, there was a striking dissimilarity in the uptake and translocation ability of Cd, Zn and Cu in soil, but similar accumulation to translocation for Pb in soil.     

Oasis land-use change and its effects on the oasis eco-environment in Keriya Oasis,China

Land-use change in oases of arid zones play a significant role in the sustainable development and stability of oases. This paper presents a typical case of successful efforts to mitigate land-use change, its drivers and effects on the oasis eco-environment at Keriya Oasis in the western arid zone of China using remotely-sensed data, official statistics, and data collected by field investigation. Mathematical models were developed to quantify important elements related to land-use change, including net change and total change. The results indicate that: (1) approximately 17% of land-use types of Keriya Oasis changed between 1991 and 2002; (2) socioeconomic development, climate change, and economic polices contributed to land-use change in the oasis; (3) inappropriate human activities were the main cause of land-use change and eco-environmental degradation in the oasis; and (4) the stability of the oasis is threatened by land-use change and unexpected eco-environmental changes in the oasis and oasis–desert ecotone. The study suggests irrational human activity in arid zones, and that caution should be exercised to maintain stability and sustainable development of oases.     

长白山北坡林线处岳桦年轮年表及其与气候的关系

运用相关函数及响应分析等树木年轮气候学方法,研究了长白山北坡林线处岳桦(Betula ermanii)径向生长及其与气候的关系.结果表明,林线处岳桦年轮宽度年表具有较强的气候敏感性.其径向生长与上年7月和当年3月的温度显著负相关(P<0.05),与上年9月和当年7月的温度显著正相关;同时与上年6月降水量显著正相关.与季节性气候因子的响应分析表明,岳桦径向生长与当年春季(1～3月)和当年生长季前(4、5月)的平均温度呈显著负相关,与当年生长季前的平均最高温度显著正相关,与降水量的相关关系不显著.利用多元逐步回归方法模拟了岳桦年轮宽度指数与气候因子间的关系,并据此预测在温度和降水增加的背景下,林线处岳桦径向生长将降低14.8%.     

Exploring the future of European crop production in a liberalised market, with specific consideration of climate change and the regional competitiveness

Long-term future development of European agriculture within the global market is highly uncertain, but can potentially have large impacts on the future of agricultural businesses, rural communities and amenities such as traditional landscapes and biodiversity. Despite great uncertainties it is of interest to explore the extent of these potential changes. This paper provides an explorative scenario of the European crop production in a liberalised world without European Union (EU) market interventions. The results do not form a prediction or a business as usual scenario, but rather a plausible and salient thought-experiment of a possible future based on the consistent integration of current conceptual and quantitative models.Future scenarios for climate, demography, technology and global demand for agricultural commodities are used to assess the competitiveness of European agriculture. Regional economic competitiveness is determined by combining indicators for the economic strength of farms in a region and population pressure on agricultural land, and subsequently used to determine where agricultural production is likely to sustain under the market liberalisation scenario. The method is illustrated for the 27 EU member state countries for three commodities: wheat, potato and milk (relying on grass).Results include maps of the dominant wheat, potato and milk producing regions across Europe as projected for 2050. They show that due to increased agricultural productivity, less agricultural land will be needed to supply the European demand for food and feed. In addition, production will concentrate in those regions which have a comparative advantage. This potentially leads to a strong polarisation between north-western Europe and southern Europe, which faces negative impacts of climate change and central and northern Europe where agricultural businesses lag in economic strength and farm size. A contrasting policy intervention scenario illustrates how differences in demand and productivity result in an expansion of the agricultural area, especially for the production of wheat.Although the complete liberalisation scenario may seem unlikely, and the underlying assumptions have great uncertainty, the results help identify and map market pressures on agricultural land use across regions in Europe. As such, it stimulates policy debate on the desired future for the European agricultural sector and the trade-offs between economic competitiveness under global market conditions and policy intervention. In addition, it provides a basis for the planning of alternative economic strategies for agriculturally less competitive regions.     

挠力河流域农垦开发中居民地景观生态特征的变化

运用G IS、景观格局分析与聚落分析方法定量分析了挠力河流域在快速农垦开发中居民地分布格局的时空变化,探讨了景观格局形成的机制。景观指数分析表明近50 a来居民地面积和数目激增,居民地斑块面积、聚集度增大,表明人类对挠力河流域景观扰动持续增强。在所有背景地类中,居民地与耕地的邻接比例最高。伴随居民地和耕地迅速扩张,两者邻接比例呈上升趋势,两者相互影响越来越大。不同时期居民地扩张强度高值区分布有所不同,主要分布在早期的耕地新增区,1954—2000年挠力河流域居民地扩张高值区最终主要分布于该流域的西部与中部。虽然居民地数目和面积均激增,各居民地之间的距离亦呈缩短趋势,但居民地最近邻点指数表明,近50 a来挠力河流域居民地分布类型一直为随机分布,农垦经济仍占主导地位,人为规划比城镇发达地区薄弱。     

Impact of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg with a focus on nature conservation areas

Global warming impacts the water cycle not only by changing regional precipitation levels and temporal variability, but also by affecting water flows and soil moisture dynamics. In Brandenburg, increasing average annual temperature and decreasing precipitation in summer have already been observed. For this study, past trends and future effects of climate change on soil moisture dynamics in Brandenburg were investigated, considering regional and specific spatial impacts. Special Areas of Conservation (SACs) were focused on in particular. A decreasing trend in soil water content was shown for the past by analyzing simulation results from 1951 to 2003 using the integrated ecohydrological model SWIM [Krysanova, V., Müller-Wohlfeil, D.-I., Becker, A., 1998. Development and test of a spatially distributed hydrological/water quality model for mesoscale watersheds. Ecol. Model. 106, 261–289]. The trend was statistically significant for some areas, but not for the entire region. Simulated soil water content was particularly low in the extremely dry year 2003. Comparisons of simulated trends in soil moisture dynamics with trends in the average annual Palmer Drought Severity Index for the region showed largely congruent patterns, though the modeled soil moisture trends are characterized by a much higher spatial resolution. Regionally downscaled climate change projections representing the range between wetter and drier realizations were used to evaluate future trends of available soil water. A further decrease of average available soil water ranging from −4% to −15% was projected for all climate realizations up to the middle of the 21st century. An average decrease of more than 25 mm was simulated for 34% of the total area in the dry realization. Available soil water contents in SACs were generally higher and trends in soil moisture dynamics were lower mainly due to their favorable edaphic conditions. Stronger absolute and relative changes in the simulated trends for the past and future were shown for SACs within Brandenburg than for the state as a whole, indicating a high level of risk for many wetland areas. Nonetheless, soil water content in SACs is expected to remain higher than average under climate change conditions as well, and SACs therefore have an important buffer function under the projected climate change. They are thus essential for local climate and water regulation and their status as protected areas in Brandenburg should be preserved.