基于地理加权回归模型评估土地利用对地表水质的影响

针对传统线性回归模型大多忽视空间数据局部变化特征这一缺陷,引入地理加权回归模型(GWR)用于评估土地利用对地表水质的影响,分析了不同子流域内两者关系出现空间变化的规律并阐释了原因.同时,对比了GWR模型与普通最小二乘模型(OLS)的校正R2、Akaike信息准则(AICc)及残差的空间自相关指数(Moran's I),验证了GWR模型在预测精度和处理空间自相关过程中是否优于OLS模型.结果表明,同一土地利用类型对水质的影响随空间位置的改变而发生方向或大小的变化.以温瑞塘河流域总氮(TN)与农用地的关系为例,从GWR模型局部回归系数的方向分析,两者关系表现为农村正、城区负的现象,从大小分析,旧城区TN与农用地回归系数的绝对值高于其它区域;在溶解氧(DO)与人口密度所构建的GWR模型中,两者关系在整个研究区域内均表现为负值,与OLS结果吻合,从回归系数的大小分析,人口密度对DO的作用在郊区及农村更为显著.针对此类关系出现空间变化的原因分析表明,相邻子流域土地利用百分比的改变及水体主要污染源的不同,是导致土地利用对水质作用发生变化的根本因素.最后,对比所构建的80个GWR与OLS模型校正R2、AICc指标,验证了GWR作为一种局部统计模型,其预测精度优于OLS等传统全局模型且更能反映实际空间特征.     

Quantifying the quality loss and resource efficiency of recycling by means of exergy analysis

Contaminants cause a decrease in the quality of materials with each recycling step. These quality losses should be minimized to increase the sustainability of resources use. Quality losses cannot be measured using weight-based recovery definitions alone, as the quality degradation cannot be translated by mass measures. Therefore, a better measure of the efficiency of resource use is investigated in the present work. Exergy is a measure of the quality of the energy and of resources in systems. The exergy losses are a thermodynamic measure of exhaustion and thus, of the quality losses in the resource systems. We describe a method to calculate the exergy content and exergy losses of metals during recovery and recycling of a concept car. The exergy losses attributed to recycling (the pollution with other metals) and the consequent need for dilution can be used as indicators of the quality loss of materials and of the efficiency of resource use in product systems.     

近10年流域江湖关系变化作用下鄱阳湖水动力及水质特征模拟

鄱阳湖水文情势受流域来水及长江共同影响,近10年流域、长江和鄱阳湖间关系发生了较大变化,导致了新的水文节律调整,进一步使得湖区水质环境发生变化.对近10年序列(2003—2012年)和1956—2002年序列的多年平均的日水文过程进行对比,分析了鄱阳湖的流域入流、湖口出流及湖区水位的年内变化过程;近10年鄱阳湖最高水位降低,湖相时间变短,河相时间增长;通过构建鄱阳湖的二维水动力水质模型,并采用实测2010年湖区水动力及水质数据对模型进行率定验证,在此基础上着重研究流域、江湖水文情势变化条件下,湖区的水动力和水质发生的变化.模拟结果显示,由于4—6月间湖区丰水期滞后13 d,8—10月间枯水期提前21 d,导致TN浓度在两个时间段内分别上升10.6%和12.4%,TP浓度在两期间内分别升高11.7%和13.6%.在8—10月期间,湖区水位下降速率增加,南部与西部的碟型湖提前与主湖区分离,形成相对静水的水塘,加剧了碟型湖的富营养化风险.     

Implementing REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation): evidence on governance,evaluation and impacts from the REDD-ALERT project

The REDD-ALERT (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation from Alternative Land Uses in the Rainforests of the Tropics) project started in 2009 and finished in 2012, and had the aim of evaluating mechanisms that translate international-level agreements into instruments that would help change the behaviour of land users while minimising adverse repercussions on their livelihoods. Findings showed that some developing tropical countries have recently been through a forest transition, thus shifting from declining to expanding forests at a national scale. However, in most of these (e.g. Vietnam), a significant part of the recent increase in national forest cover is associated with an increase in importation of food and timber products from abroad, representing leakage of carbon stocks across international borders. Avoiding deforestation and restoring forests will require a mixture of regulatory approaches, emerging market-based instruments, suasive options, and hybrid management measures. Policy analysis and modelling work showed the high degree of complexity at local levels and highlighted the need to take this heterogeneity into account—it is unlikely that there will be a one size fits all approach to make Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) work. Significant progress was made in the quantification of carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes following land-use change in the tropics, contributing to narrower confidence intervals on peat-based emissions and their reporting standards. There are indications that there is only a short and relatively small window of opportunity of making REDD+ work—these included the fact that forest-related emissions as a fraction of total global GHG emissions have been decreasing over time due to the increase in fossil fuel emissions, and that the cost efficiency of REDD+ may be much less than originally thought due to the need to factor in safeguard costs, transaction costs and monitoring costs. Nevertheless, REDD+ has raised global awareness of the world’s forests and the factors affecting them, and future developments should contribute to the emergence of new landscape-based approaches to protecting a wider range of ecosystem services.     

Clearing the way for reducing emissions from tropical deforestation

Carbon emissions from tropical deforestation account for about 25% of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions but cannot be credited under current climate change agreements. In the discussions around the architecture of the post-2012 climate regime, the possibility of including credits for reduced emissions from deforestation arises. The paper reviews two approaches for this, compensated reductions (CR) as proposed by Santilli et al. and the Joint Research Centre proposal that combine voluntary commitments by non-Annex I countries to reduce emissions from deforestation with carbon market financing. Both approaches have the clear advantages of simplicity and the possibility of fitting to an evolving greenhouse gas emission reduction regime. The authors consider the strengths and limitations of each proposal and build upon them to address several implementation challenges and options for improvement. Given the urgency of avoiding dangerous climate change, the timely development of technically sound, politically acceptable, cost-effective and practicable measures to reduce emissions from deforestation and forest degradation is essential. These two approaches take us a step closer to this goal, but they need to be refined rapidly to enable this goal to be realised.     

Monetary incentives to avoid deforestation under the Reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD)+ climate change mitigation scheme in Tanzania

The paper estimates and compares the level of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+) payments required to compensate for the opportunity costs (OCs) of stopping the conversion of montane forest and miombo woodlands into cropland in two agro-ecological zones in Morogoro Region in Tanzania. Data collected from 250 households were used for OC estimation. REDD+ payment was estimated as the net present value (NPV) of agricultural rent and forest rent during land clearing, minus net returns from sustainable wood harvest, divided by the corresponding reduction in carbon stock. The median compensation required to protect the current carbon stock in the two vegetation types ranged from USD 1 tCO₂e^?1 for the montane forest to USD 39 tCO₂e^?1 for the degraded miombo woodlands, of which up to 70 % and 16 %, respectively, were for compensating OCs from forest rent during land clearing. The figures were significantly higher when the cost of farmers’ own labor was not taken into account in NPV calculations. The results also highlighted that incentives in the form of sustainable harvests could offset up to 55 % of the total median OC to protect the montane forest and up to 45 % to protect the miombo woodlands, depending on the wage rates. The findings suggest that given the possible factors that can potentially affect estimates of REDD+ payments, avoiding deforestation of the montane forest would be feasible under the REDD+ scheme. However, implementation of the policy in villages around the miombo area would require very high compensation levels.     

HONO来源及其对空气质量影响研究进展

综述了HONO来源(源排放、均相反应和非均相反应生成)、HONO模拟研究以及HONO来源对空气质量的影响.指出均相反应中激发态NO2与水汽作用形成HONO的机制在高NOx排放地区具有重要作用,但反应速率需进一步证实.非均相反应中水解反应可能是HONO最主要来源,空气质量模式模拟结果也支持该观点;soot表面的光照催化反应在soot高排放地区对HONO贡献较大,但仍需大量外场实验证实;土壤排放机理的外场实验研究极少,亟待加强.     

关于渤海环境综合整治行动的反思

面对日益严峻的渤海环境问题,我国自本世纪初开始了大规模的渤海环境综合整治行动.该行动在取得积极成效的同时,存在如下问题:指导思想上带有传统环境管理痕迹,缺乏统一有效的权威领导机构,配套的政策法规的缺失,公众参与的长效机制尚未建立.为此下一步重点要解决的问题是:提高对渤海环境保护重要性的认识,促进渤海环境管理综合协调机制运行的制度化与规范化,促使渤海环境保护和教育的广泛参与性和持久性.     

对多氯联苯的全球分馏加以量化

由于有广泛的理化特性,多氯联苯(PCBs)在全球分馏假设求导中担任着重要角色,这种假设预测持久性有机污染混合物的组成随纬度产生变化.最新的历史排放估计、内部一致的特性数据集和按气候带平均的全球命运和运输模型结合在一起允许把PCBs所经历的成分转移作为环境区划、纬度和时间的一个函数的定量调查.模型模拟复制出纬度越高在大气和土壤中所观察到的较轻PCB同类物的相对丰度就越高,并量化了分割、持久性和排放在建立PCB格局过程中的相对重要性.组成变化不仅与倒转的浓度剖面一致(北极区浓度高于低纬度区)也与全球分馏一致,但只与向北转移的全球PCB存量的较小部分一致.     

Drinking water quality governance: A comparative case study of Brazil,Ecuador, and Malawi

Human health is greatly affected by inadequate access to sufficient and safe drinking water, especially in low and middle-income countries. Drinking water governance improvements may be one way to better drinking water quality. Over the past decade, many projects and international organizations have been dedicated to water governance; however, water governance in the drinking water sector is understudied and how to improve water governance remains unclear. We analyze drinking water governance challenges in three countries – Brazil, Ecuador, and Malawi – as perceived by government, service providers, and civil society organizations. A mixed methods approach was used: a clustering model was used for country selection and qualitative semi-structured interviews were used with direct observation in data collection. The clustering model integrated political, economic, social and environmental variables that impact water sector performance, to group countries. Brazil, Ecuador and Malawi were selected with the model so as to represent the diversity of the clusters. This comparative case study is important because similar challenges are identified in the drinking water sectors of each country; while, the countries represent diverse socio-economic and political contexts, and the case selection process provides generalizability to our results. We find that access to safe water could be improved if certain water governance challenges were addressed: coordination and data sharing between ministries that deal with drinking water services; monitoring and enforcement of water quality laws; and sufficient technical capacity to improve administrative and technical management of water services at the local level. From an analysis of our field research, we also developed a conceptual framework that identifies policy levers that could be used to influence governance of drinking water quality on national and sub-national levels, and the relationships between these levers.     

拉西瓦水电工程对区域生态影响分析

水利水电工程非污染生态影响评价开展的时间较短,评价的技术方法尚不成熟。黄河拉西瓦水电站是“西电东送”工程北部通道的重要组成部分,工程所在区域属生态环境较为敏感和脆弱的青藏高原。论文在阐述拉西瓦水电站区域生态现状的基础上,度量了其所在区域的植物生产力和生物量,并以工程的初步设计为依据,重点分析了工程可能对区域植物生产力和植物生物量、景观格局和生物多样性等产生的影响,并提出了相应的控制对策。分析结果表明,在采取一定管育措施后,拉西瓦水电工程建设对区域生态产生的影响是可接受的。     

2011年春季辽宁一次沙尘天气过程及其对不同粒径颗粒物和空气质量的影响

利用2011年5月11—12日辽宁沙尘天气过程的相关资料,分析了沙尘天气对不同粒径颗粒物及空气质量的影响及此次沙尘过程的天气成因.结果表明:沙尘天气发生前后可吸入颗粒物PM₁₀、PM_2.5和PM₁的浓度变化很大,沈阳、鞍山、本溪和丹东4城市PM₁₀、PM_2.5的小时浓度最大值都增大了1.5~20倍;粗粒子PM_(2.5~10)的数量浓度分别增加了30~41倍,质量浓度分别增加了27~30倍;细粒子PM_(1~2.5)的质量浓度分别增加了30~35倍,数量浓度分别增加了15~30倍;微粒子的数量浓度和质量浓度各城市表现不同,沈阳微粒子的数量浓度和质量浓度最大值增大了3倍和5倍,而鞍山PM₁的数量浓度和质量浓度分别减少了50%和10%.受蒙古气旋的影响内蒙古地区产生大风降温天气,大风将内蒙古地区的沙尘带到高空并随西风带向东移动进入辽宁,由于辽宁地区风速比较小,造成了辽宁大部分地区的浮尘天气,并对辽宁各地空气质量造成了严重影响,除丹东外辽宁其他13个城市空气质量都达到了轻微污染到重度污染的级别,铁岭、阜新、沈阳和抚顺的污染指数分别超过了300,达到了重度污染的级别.     

农村环境治理中地方政府的职能研究

本文通过对地方政府在农村环境治理中的职能定位,以及地方政府在农村环境治理中职能失效的原因分析,依据农村环境保护的相关立法和实践,重新梳理和配置地方政府的农村环境管理职能,从而探索农村环境治理的真正出路。     

Analytical lenses on barriers in the governance of climate change adaptation

Barriers to adaptation have become an important concept in scientific and political discussions in the governance of climate change adaptation. Over the past years, these discussions have been dominated by one analytical lens in examining barriers and proposing ways to overcome them: the problem solving lens. In this paper, we aim to demonstrate theoretically and empirically that the choice of analytical lens influences how barriers to adaptation are constructed and the intervention strategies proposed. Drawing from recent governance literature, we explore the rationale of three dominant philosophies in the study of governance: the optimist, the realist, and the pessimist philosophy. Next, we demonstrate how these philosophies are operationalized and guide scientific inquiry on barriers to adaptation through four empirically rooted analytical lenses: i) governance as problem solving, ii) governance as competing values and interests, iii) governance as institutional interaction, and iv) governance as dealing with structural constraints. We investigate the Dutch government’s Spatial Adaptation to Climate Change programme through each of the four lenses. We discuss how each analytical lens frames barriers in a specific way, identifies different causes of barriers, leads to competing interpretations of key events, and presents other types of interventions to overcome barriers. We conclude that it is necessary to increase analytical variety in order to critically engage in theoretical debates about barriers and to empower policy practitioners in their search for successful intervention strategies to implement adaptation measures.     

对环境治理的理性思考——读《论环境治理:可持续性、效率和平等》

<正>学者的研究不应仅限在象牙塔和实验室内,而应该注重对公众的教育、对社会的影响,为使我们生活的世界变得更好而努力。专注研究全球环境治理四十多年的美国加州大学Oran Young教授,就是这样的一位值得尊敬的学者。集Oran Young教授四十多年研究心得的"科普之作"——《论环境治理:可持续性、效率和平等》在2013年由Paradigm Publishers出版。当代环境问题的根源就是人类活动     

水环境承载力方法研究

文章给出水环境承载力概念,以及对现有的水环境承载力研究方法进行分析,提出基于水量水质相关法的水环境承载力计算模型,并对其进行实证研究。结果表明,将水量水质相关法应用于水环境承载力的研究,具有建模方便、直观简单的特点,为水环境承载力研究提供了一种新途径。     

景观空间格局的定量化

根据栅格化数字图的数据,本文讨论景观信息理论指数:根据Shannon熵进行各种度量,如:度量多样性和聚集度;以及根据条件熵进行度量,如:一种新的指数,可以替代聚集度的度量,从而避免与多样性高度相关的缺点.另外,在这里还介绍一种测量方法,即在大尺度图中含多少小尺度图的信息.     

Monetizing the impacts of climate change on the Greek mining sector

Nowadays, it is widely acknowledged that climate change will affect mining industry and may pose significant risks to the economic viability of mining enterprises. So far, the vast majority of recent research efforts on this subject have focused, not surprisingly, on mining activities operating in northern areas. Nevertheless, climate change is an issue that should be of concern for all mining industry, worldwide. For this reason, this paper addresses the impacts of climate change on mining industry in the Mediterranean Region, and specifically Greece, and attempts, for the first time, to estimate the cost of climate change-related risks to the sector by means of a ??top-down?? approach. Towards this direction, climate projections based on the United Nations International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B emission scenario (which refers to a fast global economic growth, global population that peaks mid-century and then decreases, and a rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies and a balanced energy source mix) for the time period 2021?C2050 are compared to climate data for the time period 1991?C2000, in order to quantify the impacts in physical terms. Then, both secondary and primary data sources are used to monetize the cost of climate change impacts to mining enterprises. Although there exist certain limitations in the research due to data unavailability, the study reveals the importance of the problem and provides useful findings. More specifically, the estimates indicate that Greece??s mining industry could face economic losses from climate change as high as US$0.8 billion. The cost of adaptation measures is about US$312 million, while that of mitigation measures that will burden the sector through the increased electricity prices is about US$478 million.     

小三江平原湿地水质空间分异与影响分析

2005 年春季分3 次对小三江平原湿地进行大空间尺度野外采样,获取区域内不同地理位置、多种湿地类型的水样水质数据.结合区域特点,利用有机物综合污染指数和富营养化综合指数,对25 个采样点水质进行综合评价.结果表明,湿地水质主要受有机污染和富营养化威胁;河流及其两岸湿地污染水平较低,农田中的湿地受污染较为严重;湿地污染水平与其面积大小和周围土地利用结构关系密切.河岸大面积连续分布的湿地对维持河流良好水质更为重要.