病险水库管理决策中的环境价值评估 ——以水库的游憩价值为例

以滁州市黑洼水库的游憩价值为例,利用两边界二分式条件价值法,探讨了我国病险水库管理决策中的环境价值评估.利用收入限制的Logit模型,分析支付意愿均值和中值点估计和区间估计对其分布函数右尾变化的灵敏性.结果表明本研究中支付意愿的分布函数没有出现“大尾效应”,在最大投标值处,对分布函数进行简单截断的方法统计效率最高.滁州市公众对黑洼水库游憩功能提升的平均支付意愿为305元/户(95%置信区间265~351元/户);总价值为3782万元(95%置信区间3296~4355万元).表明即使是小型病险水库也可能具有极高的环境价值,病险水库管理决策必须考虑环境价值这一重要指标.     

河流允许排污量公平分配的多准则决策方法

针对允许排污量分配领域存在多种公平分配观点与准则的特点,提出了综合考虑所有排污者的公平准则,再对不同准则下的方案进行协调,以期获得全体排污者愿意接受的分配结果.设计了2种求取公平协调解的多准则决策方法,分别采用满意度和公平偏离度作为衡量指标,根据最大化最小值原理求取最佳协调解,求解过程不需要人为给定权重.以广州-佛山跨界河网为例,研究表明,2种方法具有良好的一致性,分配结果较公平合理,可为解决跨界水污染矛盾和实施总量控制制度提供定量化的决策依据.     

基于群决策的河流允许排污量公平分配博弈模型

为解决河流水质管理中允许排污量的公平分配问题,建立一个由排污者群体决策的博弈模型.其基本原理是在现有被普遍接受的公平分配准则基础上,排污者按照一定的顺序,根据个体利益最大化原则依次选择分配准则并获得相应的允许排污量,同时考虑所有排序方式,求取平均值作为最终分配结果.案例研究结果表明,模型综合考虑了多种分配准则,无需人为给定准则的权重,保证了分配依据和分配过程的公正,由排污者群体决策而得出最终结果,是一种较为公平合理的允许排污量分配方法.模型求解与博弈论的Shapley解法类似,计算量呈随排污者个数阶乘递增趋势.     

Groundwater models and wellfield management: a case study

The highly permeable sand and gravel of the Little Miami River Valley Aquifer System near Milford, Ohio provide the community with a high-yielding source of drinking water. While this hydrogeologic setting is ideal from a water quantity standpoint, it is greatly vulnerable to contamination. The future viability of the well-field came into question when it was discovered that the wellfield was contaminated with volatile organic contaminants, leaving the City with the costly cleanup. Milford’s perseverance is also challenged by having to deal with a deteriorating treatment plant. Furthermore, larger water suppliers in the area have threatened the community’s independence. The question facing this community, and many other smaller communities, was whether to surrender its independence or invest in their future. The city has decided to keep their wellfield and to conduct a groundwater study. The objectives of the study were to: (a) collect and evaluate hydrogeological data; (b) develop a conceptual model of the groundwater system; (c) construct groundwater flow and geochemical models; (d) delineate wellhead protection area; and (e) develop a comprehensive management program. Collected hydro-geologic data served as a basis for the conceptual model. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) three-dimensional groundwater flow model MODFLOW was used in conjunction with MODPATH, a particle-tracking program, to identify travel times and paths of contaminants. This approach ultimately lead to the delineation of the wellhead protection area (WHPA). Geochemical mixing models were constructed using the USGS PHREEQC to verify the flow model results. The use of both flow and geochemical models to delineate the WHPA and to manage groundwater resources is a unique approach. The modeling results provide the City of Milford a management tool in making difficult policy decisions regarding future land use, siting for new monitoring and production wells, and identification of potential pollution sources.     

基于纳污量的流域水环境管理模式——以金华江流域义乌段为例

为解决金华江流域义乌段水质与水功能区要求间失衡的环境问题,建立基于水体纳污能力的流域水环境管理模式.以QUAL2K模型为基础估算了金华江流域义乌段BOD和氨氮纳污能力;建立了同时考虑点源和面源的BOD、氨氮日最大排污量的管理模式.结果表明,流域BOD、氨氮纳污总量分别为4865.5 kg·d-1和431.20 kg·d-1;按照BOD、氨氮现状,其排放量分别削减49.63%和88.71%,才能基本满足流域水环境功能区要求.     

基于水质目标管理的河流治理方案制定方法及其案例研究

针对我国河流污染程度高,污染类型复杂的现状,实施水质目标管理是河流治理的根本选择.我国在水污染总量控制的研究起步比较早,但缺少基于水质目标的治理方案编制方法的系统性研究.本文提出了适合于我国国情的基于水质目标的河流治理方案制定方法,基本框架包括水质问题诊断、目标确定与负荷分配、河流治理任务实施和实施效果评估4个基本部分.该方法以河流容量总量控制为基础,突破了传统了目标总量控制方式,并在滏阳河邢台段进行了实际应用.水环境诊断结果显示,氨氮是滏阳河邢台段主要超标污染物.以国控及省控断面为基础,在滏阳河邢台段设定了4个考核断面,设置氨氮小于10、11、12 mg·L-1,COD小于80、55、50 mg·L-1等多个组合目标情景.划定控制单元13个,核算了各控制单元水环境容量和现状负荷,并按等比例分配的原则将需削减负荷分配到排污口.基于负荷分配结果,提出通过重点工业企业和污水处理场治理控制点源污染,通过农村生活污水治理控制面源污染,通过河岸垃圾治理减少河道负荷存量,通过河流湿地建设增加负荷去除能力等一系列治理措施.     

Fuzzy modelling to identify key drivers of ecological water quality to support decision and policy making

Water quality modelling is an effective tool to investigate, describe and predict the ecological state of an aquatic ecosystem. Various environmental variables may simultaneously affect water quality. Appropriate selection of a limited number of key-variables facilitates cost-effective management of water resources. This paper aims to determine (and analyse the effect of) the major environmental variables predicting ecological water quality through the application of fuzzy models. In this study, a fuzzy logic methodology, previously applied to predict species distributions, was extended to model environmental effects on a whole community. In a second step, the developed models were applied in a more general water management context to support decision and policy making. A hill-climbing optimisation algorithm was applied to relate ecological water quality and environmental variables to the community indicator. The optimal model was selected based on the predictive performance (Cohen’s Kappa), ecological relevance and model’s interpretability. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis was performed as an extra element to analyse and evaluate the optimal model. The optimal model included the variables land use, chlorophyll and flow velocity. The variable selection method and sensitivity analysis indicated that land use influences ecological water quality the most and that it affects the effect of other variables on water quality to a high extent. The model outcome can support spatial planning related to land use in river basins and policy making related to flows and water quality standards. Fuzzy models are transparent to a wide range of users and therefore may stimulate communication between modellers, river managers, policy makers and stakeholders.     

Environmental performance,indicators and measurement uncertainty in EMS context: a case study

EMS is a tool for managing the interaction between the organization and the environment. The aim of an EMS is to improve the overall environmental performance of the organization. The performance should be monitored through measurements, and managed by indicators. Indicators are variables that summarize or otherwise simplify relevant information about the state of a complex system. A correct evaluation of environmental performance arises from the choice of adequate “raw” data and from the relationships among “raw” data.This paper, after a short excursus concerning the rule of indicators in environmental performance evaluation and the mean of uncertainty, proposes an approach to the study and the evaluation, through indicators and indices, of the environmental aspect “wastewater discharges” of a Local Authority who is involved in EMS implementation. Particularly, the critical analysis of one of the indices that has been used is reported. The role of the uncertainty of measurements has been stressed. The results showed that measurement uncertainty is essential for an efficient data comparison and for a correct evaluation of environmental performance, which, in turn, is essential to guarantee the effectiveness of the EMS application.     

Integrated river basin management in rapidly urbanizing areas: a case of Shenzhen, China

The rapid urbanization of China is causing a burden on their water resources and hindering their sustainable development. This paper analyzes effective methods to integrated river basin management (IRBM) using Longgang River basin of Shenzhen as an example, which is the city with the fastest rate of urbanization in China and even the whole world. Over the past 20 years, China has undergone a population boom due to the increase of immigrant workers and rapid development of laborintensive industries, which led to the sharp increase of water consumption and sewage discharge. However, the construction of the water infrastructure is still lagging far behind the environmental and social development, with only 32.7% of sewage in the district being treated. Currently, every water quality indicator of the Longgang River basin was unable to meet the required corresponding environmental standards, which further aggravated the water shortages of the region. Thus, an analytical framework is proposed to address the IRBM of the study area. The problems with the current management system include the lack of decentralization in decision-making, lack of enforcement with redundant plans, weak management capacity, financial inadequacy, and a poor system of stakeholder participation. In light of the principles of IRBM and the situation of the region, corresponding measures are put forward, including an increase of power given to sub-district offices, fewer but more feasible plans, capacity building among stakeholders, a combination of planning and marketing for overcoming financial inadequacy, and profound reform in the public participation system. The framework and institutional suggestions could inform similar processes in other representative river basins.     

The role of body size versus growth on the decision to migrate: a case study with Salmo trutta

In a population exhibiting partial migration (i.e. migration and residency tactics occur in the same population), the mechanisms underlying the tactical choice are still unclear. Empirical studies have highlighted a variety of factors that could influence the coexistence of resident and migratory individuals, with growth and body size considered to be key factors in the decision to migrate. Most studies suffer from at least one of the two following caveats: (1) survival and capture probabilities are not taken into account in the data analysis, and (2) body size is often used as a proxy for individual growth. We performed a capture–mark–recapture experiment to study partial migration among juvenile brown trout Salmo trutta at the end of their first year, when a portion of the population emigrate from the natal stream while others choose residency tactic. Bayesian multistate capture–recapture models accounting for survival and recaptures probabilities were used to investigate the relative role of body size and individual growth on survival and migration probabilities. Our results show that, despite an apparent effect of both size and growth on migration, growth is the better integrative parameter and acts directly on migration probability whereas body size acts more strongly on survival. Consequently, we recommend caution if size is used as a proxy for growth when studying the factors that drive partial migration in juvenile salmonid species.     

Economic-balance hybrid LCA extended with uncertainty analysis: case study of a laptop computer

The emergence of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) on the global stage as a design and policy tool increases the importance of assessing and managing uncertainty. This article develops and implements uncertainty methods for hybrid LCA. Hybrid LCA combines a bottom-up construction of the supply-chain based on facility-level data on material/energy use with a top-down economic input-output (EIO) model to account for processes for which direct data were unavailable. For the bottom-up part of the LCA, we account for variability in process and usage pattern data by developing parameter ranges. For the EIO side we develop a method to assess price uncertainty. These methods are explored through a case study examining energy use and carbon dioxide emissions of manufacturing and use of a laptop computer, a 2001 Dell Inspiron 2500. Results show that manufacturing the computer requires 3010-4340 MJ of primary energy, 52-67% less than the energy to make a desktop computer, and emits 227-270 kg CO₂. The manufacturing phase represents 62-70% of total primary energy of manufacturing and operation. This indicates, as for desktop computers, that mitigating manufacturing energy use, for example through extending lifespan, can be an important strategy to manage the life cycle energy of laptop computers. Results also indicate that truncation error from excluded processes in the bottom-up process model is significant, perhaps particularly so due to complex supply chains of information technology products.     

Economic and other implications of integrated chain management: a case study

In this article, the concept of Integrated (Substance) Chain Management (ISCM) is discussed. The definition of ISCM, motives for ISCM, conditions for implementation, different points of view and a five-step model are dealt with. In addition, a number of possible barriers on the road to ISCM are discussed. The model is applied to a stonewool-producing company in the Netherlands. This company set up a recycling project in the form of a briquetting factory. The substance-flow sheets show that after implementing the briquetting factory, almost all process wastes are used in the factory and that fewer virgin materials have to be used. From an economic point of view, production in a more sustainable fashion is very unattractive: production costs per ton of stonewool product rose as a consequence of the use of the briquettes as an input. The barriers connected to ISCM are mainly economic and regulatory. Solutions for the Rockwool company may include engaging in environmental product stewardship and a realignment of the government policy towards dumping re-usable and non-separated building and construction waste.     

水电开发对河流生态系统服务功能的影响——以澜沧江漫湾水电工程为例

人类的经济活动对河流生态系统施加的干扰越来越多,其中既有正面影响,也有负面影响.在剖析河流生态系统服务功能内涵特征的基础上,探讨了水电开发对河流生态系统服务功能影响的机理及途径,建立了评价指标体系和评估方法.并以澜沧江漫湾水电站为对象进行了案例研究.结果表明,漫湾水电工程建设对河流生态系统服务功能正面影响的价值增量为11.30×108元·a-1,负面影响的价值损失为3.27×108元·a-1.正面影响以水力发电产生的经济效益为主,负面影响以河流输沙和维持生物多样性服务功能减弱的价值损失为主.漫湾水电开发生态环境效益与生态环境成本的比值为1:5.56,生态环境影响的净现值为一26853.50×lO'元·a-1.鉴于水电开发经济效益获取所付出的巨大环境代价,提出了水电开发与河流生态系统服务功能可持续调控模型,以期为实现绿色水电开发提供参考.     

基于不确定性分析的城市总体规划环评方法与案例研究

围绕城市总体规划特点,在分析识别规划经济增长和用地布局方案中存在的多种不确定性的基础上,以产业和用地为基本评估单元,综合运用蒙特卡罗随机采样技术和HSY算法及地理信息系统,建立了基于结构与空间不确定性分析的规划环评方法和系统评估模型.以大连城市发展规划对近岸海域的环境影响为例,说明该方法的具体运用.案例研究结果表明,规划年大连市入海污染物排放特征和环境敏感行业表现出较大的空间差异性,局部地区污染物排放量超出环境控制目标值的概率较大.     

Development and case study of a science-based software platform to support policy making on air quality

This article describes the development and implementations of a novel software platform that supports real-time, science-based policy making on air quality through a user-friendly interface. The software, RSM-VAT, uses a response surface modeling (RSM) methodology and serves as a visualization and analysis tool (VAT) for three-dimensional air quality data obtained by atmospheric models. The software features a number of powerful and intuitive data visualization functions for illustrating the complex nonlinear relationship between emission reductions and air quality benefits. The case study of contiguous U.S. demonstrates that the enhanced RSM-VAT is capable of reproducing the air quality model results with Normalized Mean Bias < 2% and assisting in air quality policy making in near real time.     

Development and case study of a science-based software platform to support policy making on air quality

This article describes the development and implementations of a novel software platform that supports real-time, science-based policy making on air quality through a user-friendly interface. The software, RSM-VAT, uses a response surface modeling(RSM) methodology and serves as a visualization and analysis tool(VAT) for three-dimensional air quality data obtained by atmospheric models. The software features a number of powerful and intuitive data visualization functions for illustrating the complex nonlinear relationship between emission reductions and air quality benefits. The case study of contiguous U.S.demonstrates that the enhanced RSM-VAT is capable of reproducing the air quality model results with Normalized Mean Bias 2% and assisting in air quality policy making in near real time.     

The social side of spatial decision support systems: Investigating knowledge integration and learning

Spatial decision support systems (SDSS) represent a step forward in efforts to account for the spatial dimension in environmental decision-making. The aim of SDSS is to help policymakers and practitioners access, interpret and understand information from data, analyses and models, and guide them in identifying possible actions during a decision-making process. Researchers, however, report difficulties in up-take of SDSS by the intended users. Some suggest that this field would benefit from investigation of the social aspects involved in SDSS design, development, testing and use. Borrowing insights from the literature on science-policy interactions, we explore two key social processes: knowledge integration and learning. Using a sample of 36 scientific papers concerning SDSS in relation to environmental issues, we surveyed whether and how the selected papers reported on knowledge integration and learning. We found that while many of the papers mentioned communication and collaboration with prospective user groups or stakeholders, this was seldom underpinned by a coherent methodology for enabling knowledge integration and learning to surface. This appears to have hindered SDSS development and later adoption by intended users.     

Flood inundation uncertainty: The case of a 0.5% annual probability flood event

Aging coastal defences around the UK are challenging managers to redesign schemes to be resilient to extreme events and climate change, be cost-effective, and have minimal or beneficial environmental impact. To enable effective design, reduced uncertainty in the assessment of flood risk due to natural variability within the coastal forcing is required to focus on conditions that pose highest threat. The typical UK standard of protection for coastal defences is to withstand a 0.5% annual probability event, historically also known as a 1 in 200 year return period event. However, joint wave-water level probability curves provide a range of conditions that meet this criterion. We examine the Dungeness and Romney Marsh coastal zone, a region of high value in terms of habitat and energy assets, to quantify the uncertainty in flood depth and extent generated by a 0.5% probability event, and to explore which combinations of wave and water levels generate the greatest threat.     

基于保护目标制定的湖泊流域入湖河流河段划分方法——以滇池流域为例

通过科学合理地划分河段实现栖息地分类管理是恢复流域生物完整性的重要内容之一.湖泊流域入湖河流空间尺度小、坡降大、生态学过程差异性显著的特点导致其河段类型复杂多样,与河流流域河段类型的大尺度特征具有明显区别,因此,河流流域河段划分指标及其方法不适用于湖泊流域,亟需发展以栖息地分类管理为目的的湖泊流域河段划分方法.本文通过回顾河流分类的概念、划分依据及划分方法的发展历程,明确了湖泊流域河段划分理论基础,提出了基于保护目标制定的湖泊流域河段划分方法,为恢复湖泊流域生物完整性提供了更为精细的管理单元.同时,以滇池流域为例,通过筛选与大型底栖动物敏感种群和濒危种群显著相关的环境因子,建立了由地貌类型、土地利用方式、河水来源、河道人工化情况及水体营养程度构成的指标划分体系;在实现各划分指标空间化的基础上,利用空间叠加聚类技术手段,将滇池流域入湖河流划分为9个河段类型,为滇池流域水生态系统健康恢复提供了科学依据.     

Integrated modeling of oil spill response strategies: a coastal management case study

Oil spills are commonly considered as one of the worst forms of marine pollution. Often they constitute a challenge for an operational contingency management, since an oil spill contingency management encompasses multiple and often conflicting objectives and has to face various sources of uncertainty. Focusing on a well-documented case, the Pallas oil spill in Germany, the selection of optimal strategy among others is formulated as a multi-criteria decision-making problem that involves various environment, socio-economy and management related effects. These effects may not be directly comparable and compatible due to the fact that they are measured in multiple metrics. To solve such a multi-criteria decision-making problem, this paper proposes monetary evaluation models to assess performances of using different response strategies. Combined with the benefit cost analysis and the cost effectiveness analysis, this method enables to further determine the favored and rational strategy and the worthwhile investment of using combat facilities, respectively. Through the case of Pallas, such a proposed method is demonstrated as an important decision-making support tool in the domain of coastal zone management.