21世纪矿产资源经济展望

简要阐明了矿产资源经济、矿产经济和矿业经济基本概念和相互关系 ,在对我国内外矿产资源特点与需求分析基础上 ,探讨了21世纪矿产资源经济的基本问题 ,提出我国21世纪的矿产资源勘查评价的科学问题。     

Decomposition of buried corpses,with special reference to the formation of adipocere

The unrestrained decomposition of a corpse involves the consecutive processes of autolysis, putrefaction and decay. Ideally, decomposition is completed within the regular resting time (15–25 years) and leads to the entire skeletalisation of the corpse. Adipocere, a greyish fatty substance formed during decomposition, is regarded as a spontaneous inhibition of post-mortem changes; it makes the corpse almost entirely resistant to decomposition and makes it impossible to use the same graves again. This creates problems for local governments with regard to the generally growing demand for burial ground.Apart from corpse-specific characteristics (e.g. sex, age, physique, cause of death), method of burial (e.g. material of the coffin, depth of grave, individual or mass grave, clothing) and time of burial, the conditions of the resting place (geology, topography, soil properties and frequency of use, air, water, and heat budget), in particular, have a special impact on adipocere formation. This study summarises the present knowledge on this phenomenon, combining results gained both in forensic medicine and in geosciences.     

松嫩盆地水资源分布特征、开发潜力及21世纪用水对策

水资源的可持续开发与利用是可持续发展的一个重要组成部分,作为我国国土规划和综合开发重点地区的松嫩盆地由于水资源的时空分布不均加上长期的不合理开发,已经产生了许多严重的环境生态问题,水资源问题已经成为松嫩盆地各项经济建设发展的制约因素。为了实现松嫩盆地水资源的可持续开发与利用,论文以地下水系统理论为指导思想,以水资源的可持续开发利用为研究目的,首先分析了松嫩盆地水资源的分布特征;然后在统计现有利用量和预报未来需水量的基础上,得出水资源的开发潜力;最后提出了松嫩盆地水资源在21世纪可持续开发利用的对策。     

谈21世纪我国城市水资源的可持续利用

根据可持续发展思想 ,阐述了水资源在城市发展中的重要作用 ,并分析了我国城市水资源可持续利用面临的主要问题。最后 ,作者提出了实现我国城市水资源可持续利用的对策。     

Modeling study on the roles of the deposition and transport of PM2.5 in air quality changes over central-eastern China

The role of PM_2.5 (particles with aerodynamic diameters ≤ 2.5 µm) deposition in air quality changes over China remains unclear. By using the three-year (2013, 2015, and 2017) simulation results of the WRF/CUACE v1.0 model from a previous work (Zhang et al., 2021), a non-linear relationship between the deposition of PM_2.5 and anthropogenic emissions over central-eastern China in cold seasons as well as in different life stages of haze events was unraveled. PM_2.5 deposition is spatially distributed differently from PM_2.5 concentrations and anthropogenic emissions over China. The North China Plain (NCP) is typically characterized by higher anthropogenic emissions compared to southern China, such as the middle-low reaches of Yangtze River (MLYR), which includes parts of the Yangtze River Delta and the Midwest. However, PM_2.5 deposition in the NCP is significantly lower than that in the MLYR region, suggesting that in addition to meteorology and emissions, lower deposition is another important factor in the increase in haze levels. Regional transport of pollution in central-eastern China acts as a moderator of pollution levels in different regions, for example by bringing pollution from the NCP to the MLYR region in cold seasons. It was found that in typical haze events the deposition flux of PM_2.5 during the removal stages is substantially higher than that in accumulation stages, with most of the PM_2.5 being transported southward and deposited to the MLYR and Sichuan Basin region, corresponding to a latitude range of about 24°N-31°N.     

GCM预测情景下中国21世纪干旱演变趋势分析

未来气候变化情景下,我国干旱事件发生的趋势具有诸多不确定性。基于国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）中6个GCM模式的未来气候变化情景数据,采用帕尔默干旱指数（Palmer Drought Severity Index,PDSI）,评估了21世纪RCP （Representative Concentration Pathway） 4.5和RCP 8.5情景下我国干旱事件发生的时空变化特征。结果表明：21世纪中后期,由于气候显著变暖而降水变化不稳定,我国将面临广泛的干旱化趋势,其中干旱频次、持续时间和强度都呈显著上升趋势。相对于基准期,干旱事件的空间格局也将发生变化,其中北方地区干旱事件历时和频次明显增加,而南方严重干旱事件的强度加剧。尽管未来气候变化情景下降水小幅增加,但仍不能扭转因增温所导致的区域干旱化趋势。因此,在制订和实施应对气候变化的旱灾预防、减缓及适应性方案和措施时,需要考虑气温和降水变化时空不匹配等因素的影响,从水热两方面调控干旱的不利影响。     

Biodiversity conservation research challenges in the 21st century: A review of publishing trends in 2000 and 2011

The Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020 recognizes the increasing importance of scientific knowledge to support conservation policies and decision making. In this study, we assessed the tendency of such knowledge in the first decade of the 21st century. We carried out a systematic review of publications in biodiversity conservation, considering the following aspects: type of research, main topic of study, object of study (i.e. biodiversity organizational level, taxonomic groups and ecosystems), pressures and drivers of change, as well as geographical distribution. In total, 966 publications were analyzed within the three journals with higher academic reach in the field under study: Biodiversity & Conservation, Biological Conservation, and Conservation Biology. Our results show that there are several biases in scientific knowledge associated with the object of study, and analyzed drivers of changes, as well as geographical distribution. However, research trends are not uniform along the first decade of 21st century, as there are some differences between 2000 and 2011 regarding the main topic of the study, the spatial scale and geographical region, and the analyzed ecosystems. We finally discuss the implications of current knowledge trends in biodiversity conservation for achieving the targets delineated by the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011–2020.     

2014年海口市大气污染物演变特征及典型污染个例分析

主要分析了2014年海口市逐日的空气质量指数(AQI)和6种大气污染物的演变特征,同时,结合卫星遥感和轨迹模式等资料和方法对1次典型污染个例进行诊断.结果表明:海口市2014年的空气质量主要以优和良为主,6 d达到轻度污染级别,1 d达到中度污染(1月5日,AQI值为158).1月污染最为严重,其中,阶段1(1-6日)和阶段3(18-23日)AQI值偏高,阶段2(7-17日)和阶段4(24-31日)偏低.1月东亚地区天气形势演变对海口市AQI值具有动力影响.AQI偏高阶段,地面高压系统位于内蒙古东部,华南低层东北风场有利于污染物向海口市输送;而在AQI偏低阶段,地面高压系统东移出海,低层偏东风场不利于污染物的输送.后向轨迹聚类分析表明,1月海口市比率最大(39%)的气流主要经过大气污染相对严重的广东珠江三角洲(珠三角)地区,有利于污染物的区域传输.污染个例分析表明,海口市污染物浓度变化与气象要素有密切关系,10 m风速较小有助于近地面的污染物在区域内累积,水平风垂直切变偏弱对天气尺度扰动的发展和大气的垂直混合不利.卫星遥感和后向轨迹分析也表明,外源输送与海口市这次大气污染事件有直接关系.     

汾渭平原空气质量的时空特征及其与气象因子的关系

汾渭平原是继京津冀和长三角之后环境污染治理的第三大重点区域,为发挥协同作用改善区域大气质量提供更为科学客观的依据,基于2014—2019年汾渭平原11个重点城市的空气质量监测资料和气象数据,利用统计方法分别从空间和时间尺度上揭示了汾渭平原空气质量指数以及主要污染物特征,及其与气象因子的关系.结果表明：11个城市中有7个城市的年均AQI指数100以上,重度以上天数占6%,重污染聚集区主要集中在关中中东部.从时间尺度看,AQI的年际波动明显且在2017年之后略有改善,冬春季特别是1月污染最为严重且呈现出明显的周末效应.首要污染物的季节差异较大,冬季以PM_2.5和PM₁₀为主,而夏季则主要以O₃为主,春秋季则分别以PM₁₀和PM_2.5为主.从气象影响因子看,年尺度上气压、降水、平均气温以及混合层高度除与O₃为正相关外与其它污染物均为显著的负相关,且呈现出明显的季节差异.而降水无论年尺度还是季节尺度上均对空气质量有利,特别是中雨量级以上的降水过程对颗粒物和O₃污染的改善作用明显.     

基于CMIP5多模式集合预估东海和南海21世纪海平面高度变化

人类活动引起的当代气候变暖已导致全球海平面显著上升,在21世纪全球气候继续变暖的背景下,东南沿海海平面的升高将对区域环境及社会可持续发展带来巨大挑战,但目前对未来区域海平面变化的预估尚存在较大的不确定性。本文基于筛选的国际耦合模式比较计划第5阶段（CMIP5）的10个模拟性能较好的气候模式输出结果,通过多模式集合预估了未来温室气体三种排放情景下21世纪东海和南海区域海平面高度的趋势变化,并分析了不同影响因子的贡献。通过计算海水热比容、盐比容和动力因子对海平面高度的影响,并在考虑冰川冰盖消融等因子的订正后,发现：21世纪东海和南海海平面高度都呈现连续上升趋势,东海和南海地区上升幅度略小于全球平均,南海上升幅度略大于东海。在温室气体低（RCP2.6）、中（RCP4.5）和高（RCP8.5）排放情景下,21世纪后期（2081—2100年）较前期（2006—2025年）东海/南海平均海平面分别上升0.26 [0.01—0.55] m/0.29 [0.05—0.55] m、0.38 [0.10—0.66] m/0.40 [0.14—0.67] m和0.52[0.15—0.89] m/0.52[0.23—0.83] m（方括号内为相应的不确定性范围）。随着温室气体排放的升高,海平面上升幅度也增大,东海海平面上升区由东南向西北扩展,南海海平面上升区由东北向西南扩展。统计分析还表明：在不同排放情景下,不同影响因子对海平面变化的贡献也不一样,随着排放强度从低到高变化,海洋比容加动力因子的相对贡献从28%—34%升高至46%—47%,而冰川冰盖消融等其他因子的相对贡献从 66%—72%降低至53%—54%。     

Development of tourism resources and environment conservation in China: with special reference to Taishan Mountain

By analyzing the cases in Taishan Mountain, Shandong Province and other tourist sites in China, this paper pointed out the problems in tourism management, such as resources damage, environment pollution, which are the result of tourism development, and are obstacles to the development. The paper also gave suggestion and practical ways to preserve tourism resources and environment.     

基于风廓线仪等资料的珠江三角洲污染气象条件研究

利用珠江三角洲区域空气质量资料和珠海、南沙、增城的逐30 min风廓仪观测资料,以及清远探空站每天08时和20时的温度探空资料等,研究了2012年10月珠江三角洲出现的大范围持续性污染天气期间的大气边界层特征.结果表明:2012年10月珠江三角洲出现的大范围持续性污染天气主要是受到弱冷空气南下和台风外围下沉气流天气形势的影响;在污染日,增城、南沙和珠海低层风速普遍小于3 m·s-1,300m高度以下风速甚至小于2 m·s-1,增城和珠海观测站的通风量普遍小于5000~6000 m2·s-1;非污染日的通风量则远远大于污染日;在近海的南沙站和珠海站,海陆风等局地环流的的作用不利于污染物的扩散,海风约出现于下午6时,最大影响高度约600~800 m;逆温层是导致重污染的天气的重要原因,清远探空站频繁出现逆温层,甚至出现多层低空逆温,污染日的逆温层平均厚度和平均强度都较大.     

An analysis of surface ozone data measured at the end of the 19th century in Zagreb,Yugoslavia

A 12-year record of surface ozone data collected by means of Schoenbein's method in Zagreb, Croatia, Yugoslavia, 1889–1900 is analyzed and calibrated. The data were collected twice a day. To convert the original data into absolute units the Montsouris regression modified by Bojkov has been used. The statistical parameters of daytime and night-time data samples show a significant difference. The annual run of daytime data contains a primary maximum at the transition from spring to summer and a secondary at the beginning of autumn. The annual run of night-time values contain one maximum only, situated at the transition from spring to summer. A comparison of old ozone data (1893–1900) with present ozone measurements over a 5-month warm period (1975), shows an increase of volume fractions from 36 to 67 ppb for daytime and from 30 to 56 ppb for night-time. It should be taken into account that many uncertainties exist in the data.     

Contribution of cane bagasse used as a fuel in the sugar industry to changes in outdoor and indoor air quality in middle Egypt

The present one-year study is concerned with the degree of relationship between the changes in quantity and quality of outdoor and indoor settled dust in Abu Qurqas town in Middle Egypt and the combustion of cane bagasse in boiler furnaces in a sugar factory located in the same town. It can be suggested that this process is responsible for increasing the rate of outdoor and indoor deposition of combustible matter by 2–8 and 2–7 times, respectively, during the period of December–April. However, it can be suggested also that the same process has a limited role, as it is a source of ash content of both outdoor and indoor settled dust and is ineffective in polluting the two environments with calcium, chloride and sulphate ions and tar fraction.Indoor levels of settled dust and its constituents were found to be lowest during cold months. This causes the indoor levels of combustible matter resulting from the sugar factory to be lower than the outdoor levels by 41–45% during December–March and by 28% during April which is a relatively warm month in Middle Egypt.     

Estimation of climate change influence on the sensitivity of trees in Europe to air pollution concentrations

This paper describes the results of combining several simple models to assess the changes in plant sensitivity to direct effects of gaseous air pollutants that result from changes in climatic conditions. This research has been carried out within the framework of a project on the integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (AIR-CLIM). The modulation of plant sensitivity to gaseous pollutants has been studied using a model of stomatal conductance that simulates the flow of water vapor from the atmosphere to the plant interior through the stomata. The model has been applied to Norway spruce (Picea abies L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.). The critical atmospheric concentration levels for SO₂ and NO_x adopted in international environmental norms have been modified to maintain in different climate scenarios a concentration level inside the plant equivalent to the critical limit in 1990. These simulated critical concentrations are compared with the predicted atmospheric concentrations. Our work indicates that the response can be very different for the two types of forests and in different regions. In general, climate change sensitivity increases in boreal areas and decreases in temperate areas due to temperature and water stress. If the air pollution levels are in the predicted ranges, the problems are less severe now than in 1990, but the cumulative stress will still be significant.     

Long-term changes in soil fertility in organic arable farming systems in England,with particular reference to phosphorus and potassium

Organic farming has undergone significant expansion in Europe over the last decade and it is often seen as a sustainable alternative to intensive agricultural systems. If it is to be truly sustainable, it must maintain levels of soil fertility sufficient for economic crop production in the long-term, whilst also protecting the environment. This paper presents results comparing soils managed organically for at least 15 years, with soils under conventional management, on four arable farms in England. There were no significant differences in total soil organic matter, total nitrogen or C:N ratio between the conventionally and organically managed soils. However, concentrations of extractable potassium and phosphorus were significantly lower in soils managed organically. The largest difference between the conventional and organic fields in potassium concentration was on the oldest organic farm. These results support the argument that organic mixed arable systems are mining reserves of potassium and phosphorus, built up during conventional management, and that changes to organic management practices to increase inputs of potassium and phosphorus are required, if long-term declines in soil fertility, and thus, yields are to be avoided.     

珠三角干季海陆风特征及其对空气质量影响的观测

通过2004年10月在珠江三角洲（以下简称“珠三角”）开展大气边界层观测试验得到的垂直风温资料和逐时PM_2.5浓度资料,利用局地环流指数（RF）等方法研究了珠三角海陆风特征及其对空气质量的影响.结果表明：局地环流指数是表征局地大气输送能力的有效指标;冷暖气团对峙导致珠三角污染日背景风场较弱,沿海海陆风活动活跃,空气质量指数与RF系数相关性颇高,珠三角沿海100~400m处RF系数值主要分布在0.5~0.8之间;在海陆风影响下低层风场的有效输送能力较弱,不利于污染物的输送扩散.而随着冷空气全面控制珠三角,垂直风场RF系数值高达0.9以上,海陆风难以发展,风场输送能力强,能够持续的将污染物输送出去.观测发现沿海观测点试验期间海陆风发生频率约为47.8%,其中72.7%的海陆风日出现了污染天气,海陆风日地面风向呈现出明显的随时间顺时针偏转特征,海风约从16：00时开始出现,并在20：00达到最大影响高度约为600~800m.夜间海风将污染物输送回内陆观测点,导致内陆PM_2.5浓度在19：00~21：00时出现浓度峰值,呈现出明显的双峰结构.     

Health hazards related to conidia of Cladosporium—biological air pollutants in Poland, central Europe

The spores of Cladosporium Link. are often present in the air in high quantities and produce many allergenic proteins, which may lead to asthma. An aerobiological spore monitoring program can inform patients about the current spore concentration in air and help their physicians determine the spore dose that is harmful for a given individual. This makes it possible to develop optimized responses and propose personalized therapy for a particular sensitive patient. The aim of this study was to assess the extent of the human health hazard posed by the fungal genus Cladosporium. For the first time, we have determined the number of days on which air samples in Poland exceeded the concentrations linked to allergic responses of sensitive patients, according to thresholds established by three different groups(2800/3000/4000 spores per 1 m~3 of the air). The survey was conducted over three consecutive growing seasons(April–September, 2010–2012) in three cities located in different climate zones of Poland(Poznan, Lublin and Rzeszow). The average number of days exceeding 2800 spores per cubic meter(the lowest threshold) ranged from 61(2010) through 76(2011) to 93(2012), though there was significant variation between cities. In each year the highest concentration of spores in the air was detected in either Poznan or Lublin, both located on large plains with intensive agriculture. We have proposed that an effective, science-based software platform to support policy-making on air quality should incorporate biological air pollutant data,such as allergenic fungal spores and pollen grains.