Overview of current regional and local scale air quality modelling practices: Assessment and planning tools in the EU

The 2008 European Air Quality Directive (AQD) (2008/50/EC) encourages the use of models in combination with monitoring in a range of applications. It also requires Member States to design appropriate air quality plans for zones where the air quality does not comply with the AQD limit values. In order to cope with these various elements, a wide range of different modeling methods have been developed and applied by EU Member States in the last decade to assess the effects of local and regional emission abatement policy options on air quality and human health. However, an overall review of the methodologies that are used in different countries to compile local and regional air quality plans has not been performed so far. Such a review has been the objective of the APPRAISAL EU FP7 project with the main goal to identify methodologies and their limitations and to propose possible key areas to be addressed by research and innovation on the basis of this review. To fulfill these objectives, a structured online database of methodologies has been developed in collaboration with experts involved in the design of air quality plans (AQP). The current work relies on the APPRAISAL database which currently totals 59 contributions from 13 Member States. In this paper we summarize the outcome of the APPRAISAL project with respect to the review of current Integrated Assessment Modeling practices.     

Top-down approaches for sharing GHG emission reductions: uncertainties and sensitivities in the 27 European Union Member States

To reduce GHG emissions, the 27 European Union Member States committed themselves in 2007 to reduce emissions from 1990 levels by 20% by 2020. In January 2008, the EU Commission gave the first country-specific proposals to reduce emissions in sectors outside the EU emission trading system (non-ETS). In this study, we looked at several ways of sharing emission reductions in the non-ETS sector. We considered population and economic growth as significant drivers of the development of emissions. In particular, we analyzed development in GHG intensity of economies. Reduction requirements vary greatly among countries depending on the principle of effort sharing. The results of our calculations can be perceived as examples of how effort sharing between the EU Member States could look like when certain assumptions are made. Generally they illustrate the sensitivity of the results to data used, assumptions made, and method applied. The main strength of simple top-down approaches is transparency. A major weakness is a very limited ability to consider national circumstances. Political negotiations are ultimately crucial; an analysis like this provides material for negotiations and makes a contribution to solving the effort-sharing problem. As future development is partly unpredictable, implementation of some kind of subsequent adjustment could be considered during the process.     

Modelling the effect of support practices (P-factor) on the reduction of soil erosion by water at European scale

The USLE/RUSLE support practice factor (P-factor) is rarely taken into account in soil erosion risk modelling at sub-continental scale, as it is difficult to estimate for large areas. This study attempts to model the P-factor in the European Union. For this, it considers the latest policy developments in the Common Agricultural Policy, and applies the rules set by Member States for contour farming over a certain slope. The impact of stone walls and grass margins is also modelled using the more than 226,000 observations from the Land use/cover area frame statistical survey (LUCAS) carried out in 2012 in the European Union.The mean P-factor considering contour farming, stone walls and grass margins in the European Union is estimated at 0.9702. The support practices accounted for in the P-factor reduce the risk of soil erosion by 3%, with grass margins having the largest impact (57% of the total erosion risk reduction) followed by stone walls (38%). Contour farming contributes very little to the P-factor given its limited application; it is only used as a support practice in eight countries and only on very steep slopes. Support practices have the highest impact in Malta, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greece, Belgium, The Netherlands and United Kingdom where they reduce soil erosion risk by at least 5%. The P-factor modelling tool can potentially be used by policy makers to run soil-erosion risk scenarios for a wider application of contour farming in areas with slope gradients less than 10%, maintaining stone walls and increasing the number of grass margins under the forthcoming reform of the Common Agricultural Policy.     

Low-carbon strategies towards 2050: Comparing ex-ante policy evaluation studies and national planning processes in Europe

The European Union (EU) is committed to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels by 80%–95% in 2050 compared to 1990 levels. Various approaches have been developed to secure and evaluate the progress made towards this objective. To gain insights into how EU Member States are aligning to this collective long-term objective, we systematically compare the planning and ex-ante evaluation processes for five EU countries (respectively Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom). The comparative analysis consists of a qualitative comparison of (1) the governance of long-term policy planning and evaluation processes, (2) the national arrangement for quantitative (model-based) ex-ante policy evaluation and (3) the national arrangement for qualitative ex-ante policy evaluation (stakeholder participation). In a second step we conduct a quantitative comparison of national model-based ex-ante evaluation studies to assess the relative differences between the considered routes and the differences across the various countries. Although the five Member States plan policies along the same EU objective, we find a high diversity in how long-term commitments are established, governed and evaluated on the national level. Model-based scenario analyses are commonly used to explore and evaluate the possible national routes towards the EU 2050 objective. However, as these processes mostly concentrate on domestic action, they pay little attention to how domestic policies are affected by, or affecting, other international activities throughout Europe. Hence, current findings suggest that cross-border collaboration and stakeholder participation could further strengthen the analytical understanding of required transformative change in Europe and subsequently lead to a more durable long-term solution over time.     

Integrating water management and principles of policy: towards an EU framework?

The EU Water Framework Directive requires Member States to organise the management of their water systems in an integrated manner, based on the natural boundaries of the water systems; the river basins. A river basin approach implies the integration of policymaking and management throughout a set of different functional uses and spatial scales. Another innovation of the Directive is the introduction of recovery of costs for water services, taking account of the polluter-pays principle. By 2010, water-pricing polices will have to provide adequate incentives for users to use water resources efficiently, and thereby contribute to the environmental objectives of the Directive. Other principles, such as the precautionary principle, are becoming increasingly important in the management of water resources as well. The translation of those principles into policy in the several Member States may however diverge. We present an overview of policy principles that play a role as basic assumptions in water management. Environmental policy principles have gradually been introduced in European legislation. From being part of a declaration of the Council, they have evolved to a basis for action in the environmental field and currently they also find wide application in the context of water management. While focusing on the EU Water Framework Directive, we investigate whether and how these principles can be reconciled with a framework for integrated water management.     

The globalization of the carbon market: Welfare and competitiveness effects of linking emissions trading schemes

In the light of the prevailing goal to keep global temperature increase below 2° and recent challenges to reach a global climate agreement in the near term, linking emissions trading schemes has emerged as a prominent complementing policy option. To this end, we explicitly assess (1) the macroeconomic welfare impacts and (2) the trade-based competitiveness effects of linking the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme in the year 2020. A stylized partial market analysis suggests that, independently of regional cost characteristics, the integration of emissions trading schemes (ETS) yields economic welfare gains for all participating regions. A computable general equilibrium analysis confirms these findings at the macroeconomic level: The economic efficiency losses from emissions regulation are diminished for both EU Member States and non-EU regions by linking ETS. However, the quantitative analysis suggests opposite trade-based incentives for linking up: while EU Member States improve their terms of trade by integrating with emerging ETS, non-EU linking candidates face competitiveness losses by linking. We conclude that, for non-EU regions, the attractiveness of linking ETS is a matter of priorities for economic welfare or international competitiveness. If these priorities are hierarchized in favor of welfare, the globalization of the carbon market could become a promising policy option complementing the efforts to reach a global climate agreement in 2015.     

Multi-scale scenarios of spatial-temporal dynamics in the European livestock sector

The European livestock sector has changed rapidly in the recent past and further changes are expected in the near future due to reforms in the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), increasing environmental concerns and changing consumer awareness. We developed a multi-scale modeling approach for exploring spatial and temporal dynamics of livestock distribution by accounting for drivers at different spatial scales. Such approach can provide a basis for environmental impact assessments of livestock farming at broad spatial scales. Assessment of change in both quantity and location was made for six livestock types. Four contrasting scenarios were applied ranging from globalization to regionalization, as well as from low regulation levels and dominance of market forces towards a higher degree of governmental regulation. National level livestock numbers as calculated by a macro-economic model were spatially distributed at the landscape scale according to the scenario assumptions considering biophysical, socio-economic, and political forces. Results indicate for most of the old European Union (EU) member countries a decrease in livestock numbers. In the new EU member countries sheep, goats and pigs are expected to decline while beef cattle and poultry are expected to grow. Livestock densities are expected to increase both within and outside current livestock hotspot regions in absence of environmental legislations. Environmental pressure as result of high livestock densities may, however, also remain in regulated scenarios where environmental policies are implemented and income support remains stable over time due to path dependencies in the livestock sector. But contrary to the non-regulated scenario it is less likely that new areas with high risk of negative environmental impacts due to livestock farming will develop.     

Disproportionate costs in the EU Water Framework Directive—How to justify less stringent environmental objectives

The ambitious objective pursued by the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) is good status for all European waters. However, “less stringent environmental objectives” are permissible if the costs of achieving good status are disproportionately high. This exemption, if abused, carries the risk of watering down the ambitions of the Directive. Currently, no transparent, well-established, universally applicable method for routinely testing disproportionality exists throughout Europe. In this paper, such a method is developed for surface water bodies. The core idea is to determine a water body-specific disproportionality threshold which is then compared to the projected costs of achieving “good status/potential”. For the sake of practicability, the benchmark for disproportionality is estimated on the basis of prior expenditure on water quality enhancement. The paper argues that the proposed method combines both possible interpretations of (dis-)proportionality—affordability and cost-benefit considerations. Due to the method’s moderate data requirements it can be used readily in most German federal states and is transferable in principle to other EU Member States. The method was tested empirically for a river in the German federal state of Rhineland–Palatinate.     

Runoff and soil erosion in arable Britain: changes in perception and policy since 1945

The realisation that runoff and soil erosion was a problem came late to Britain and policies to tackle the problem have evolved slowly and may well have a taken a different route to that in other countries. The perception of soil erosion and runoff in Britain by three interest groups (researchers, policy makers and farmers) has changed over time since the 1940s. Prior to 1970 none of the groups considered erosion and runoff were problems. From then to 1985 researchers found that erosion was widespread. Between 1985 and 2005 researchers not only confirmed that erosion was a problem, but that runoff and its impacts (muddy floods and pollution of water courses by sediment, phosphate and pesticides) were also problems. These widespread and costly economic and environmental impacts led policy makers to tackle the problems of erosion and runoff. From 2005 farmers have had to keep their land in ‘Good Agricultural and Environmental Condition’ by, amongst other things, attempting to curtail erosion and runoff, to comply with regulation in order to receive subsidy. Policy change was also stimulated by changes in the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy and the passing by the EU of the ‘Water Framework Directive’. Policy, if it is to be evidence based, will always lag behind research. There is a continuing need for field-based monitoring to assess if regulation is working, to ensure compliance, and as a basis for future policy.     

Climate change policy and water resources in the EU and Spain. A closer look into the Water Framework Directive

Climate change effects are becoming evident worldwide, with serious regional and local impacts. The European Union (EU) has launched and developed initiatives and policies that scratch the surface of water resources impacts. This article presents an introduction of the existing environmental policy and more concisely in the areas of climate change and the interactions with water resources. It also addresses main management tools, and plans linked to policies, recent updates on the Science–Policy Interface, highlighting major results from research and development projects. Establishing appropriate policies to tackle climate change impacts on water is essential given the cross-sectorial and flowing nature and the importance of water in all environmental, social and economic sectors. There are still some pending reviews and updates in the current EU policy and its implementation, as well as at the national level in Spain. This article identifies existing gaps, and provides recommendations on how and where reforms could take place and be applied by decision makers in the water policy sector.     

Can we meet targets for biofuels and renewable energy in transport given the constraints imposed by policy in agriculture and energy?

The deployment of biofuels is significantly affected by policy in energy and agriculture. In the energy arena, concerns regarding the sustainability of biofuel systems and their impact on food prices led to a set of sustainability criteria in EU Directive 2009/28/EC on Renewable Energy. In addition, the 10% biofuels target by 2020 was replaced with a 10% renewable energy in transport target. This allows the share of renewable electricity used by electric vehicles to contribute to the mix in achieving the 2020 target. Furthermore, only biofuel systems that effect a 60% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 compared with the fuel they replace are allowed to contribute to meeting the target. In the agricultural arena, cross-compliance (which is part of EU Common Agricultural Policy) dictates the allowable ratio of grassland to total agricultural land, and has a significant impact on which biofuels may be supported. This paper outlines the impact of these policy areas and their implications for the production and use of biofuels in terms of the 2020 target for 10% renewable transport energy, focusing on Ireland. The policies effectively impose constraints on many conventional energy crop biofuels and reinforce the merits of using biomethane, a gaseous biofuel. The analysis shows that Ireland can potentially satisfy 15% of renewable energy in transport by 2020 (allowing for double credit for biofuels from residues and ligno-cellulosic materials, as per Directive 2009/28/EC) through the use of indigenous biofuels: grass biomethane, waste and residue derived biofuels, electric vehicles and rapeseed biodiesel.     

欧盟可交易白色证书机制的发展及启示

在全球能源危机及气候变暖的背景下,近几年,可交易白色证书机制在欧盟发展迅速。可交易白色证书机制可以分为两部分:节能义务和白色证书交易体系,是指设定节能目标分配给责任主体,并通过市场交易,促进节能工作的有效开展。文章主要介绍可交易白色证书机制的基本原理、组成结构、运行机制和基本规则等,在比较分析意大利、英国、法国等欧盟国家的实践经验基础上,提出可供中国借鉴学习的经验。     

The European Commission's sustainable consumption and production and sustainable industrial policy action plan

The promotion of sustainable consumption and production patterns is enshrined as a key objective in the renewed European Union Sustainable Development Strategy (EU SDS). Sustainable consumption and production is arguably the most challenging aspect of the EU SDS. It requires changes to the way products and services are designed, produced, used and disposed of, taking into account producer and consumer behaviours. This paper reviews the European Commission's Communication on the sustainable consumption and production and sustainable industrial policy action plan, introduced on July 16, 2008. The paper examines the priority areas identified for action, the means adopted to improve energy and environmental performance of products as well as uptake by consumers. The paper concludes that the absence of mandatory quantifiable targets and deadlines and a reliance on both cross-sectoral and multi-level relationships are likely to weaken the ability of the action plan's fundamental objective of decoupling economic growth from resource use.     

Integrated assessment of future CAP policies: land use changes,spatial patterns and targeting

The recent and upcoming reforms of the Common Agricultural Policies (CAPs) aim at strengthening the multifunctional role of agriculture, acknowledging the differences in economic, environmental and social potentials within European regions. This paper presents results from an integrated assessment of existing and future policies within the framework set up in the FP6 EU project MEA-Scope. Spatial explicit procedures allow for the MEA-Scope modelling tools to provide information related to regional, environmental and socio-economics settings. The impact of different policy scenarios on structural change, land abandonment and cropping pattern of typical farms has been assessed based on linked agent-based (ABM) and Linear Programming (LP) models at regional and farm scale for two study areas. For the German case study area Ostprignitz-Ruppin (OPR), the issue of policy targeting has been addressed by relating non-commodity outputs (NCOs) to soil quality and protection status. For the Italian case study area (Mugello), changes in landscape patterns in terms of increased fragmentation or homogeneity as affected by changes in agricultural intensity have been analysed using semivariance analysis. The spatial explicit approach highlighted the relevance of case study research in order to identifying response structures and explaining policy implementation patterns.     

Development of marginal emission factors for N losses from agricultural soils with the DNDC–CAPRI meta-model

The article discusses marginal emission factors for N losses from agricultural soils, with rape and wheat as examples, and presents results for EU15 as high-resolution maps and aggregated to Member State level. The results are generated by linking the economic model for the agricultural sector CAPRI (Common Agricultural Policy Regional Impact) with spatial down-scaling, and a statistical meta-model for the bio-physical model DNDC (DeNitrification–DeComposition). For a given agro-economic scenario, CAPRI supplies for each crop the crop share, yield and fertilizer application rate spatially downscaled to clusters of 1 km × 1 km grid cells. The results from CAPRI are processed by a meta-model of DNDC to estimate the local greenhouse gas emissions from the soil. DNDC is a dynamic process-oriented model, which estimates trace gas fluxes and nutrient turnover in agricultural soils. The fit of the regressions is typically very good (0.95R² for the majority of the regressions), and all coefficients are significant at 99% probability. The meta-model allows a seamless integration between the economic and the bio-physical models, offering additional benefit such as the site-specific calibration of the bio-physical model ensuring the match between simulated and observed yield at the grid-level.The meta-model is used to calculate marginal emission factors for a 1 kg ha⁻¹ increase of mineral N and manure fertilizer rates for rape and wheat, at different levels of fertilization. They show that for Western European farming practice, only a small fraction of extra nitrogen fertilizer would go into increased yields: most of it would be emitted to the environment. The largest spatial variability is observed for N₂O emissions. The derivation of marginal emission factors is just one of the many possible uses for the linked regionalized agro-economic and soil chemistry model, which exploits to a large extent both geo-referenced and regionally available statistical information at European scale.     

Translating soil science into environmental policy: A case study on implementing the EU soil protection strategy in The Netherlands

The EU Commission has proposed a way forward towards a Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection based on the distinction of seven soil functions and eight threats. A Technical Working Group on Research defined some 200 general priority research areas in the context of the dynamic DPSIR approach considering drivers, pressures, states, impacts and responses. Though quite valuable as a source document, this may be too generic and academic to be a starting point for new, effective soil research in different regions of the EU. A six-step storyline procedure is therefore proposed aimed at deriving effective operational procedures for a water management unit in a given region, using available soil expertise and defining new research only where needed. The procedure, that was illustrated for a Dutch case study, consists of defining: (i) water management units (wmu's) in a landscape context; (ii) land-use, area hydrology and soil functions (iii) soil threats and relevant soil qualities; (iv) drivers of land-use change and their future impact; (v) improvement of relevant soil qualities; (vi) possibilities to institutionalize soil quality improvement as part of the EU soil protection strategy. A focus on regional wmu's is likely to result in a strong commitment of local stakeholders and governmental officials, allowing a more specific DPSIR approach. But this will only work if local officials also receive legal powers to develop and enforce codified ‘good practices’, to be developed in the context of communities of practice. Innovative research topics can be derived from a combined analysis of experiences within different communities of practice in different wmu's and should not be left to researchers to define.     

Network management and environmental effectiveness: the management of end-of-life vehicles in the United Kingdom and in Sweden

The principle of extended producer responsibility (EPR) has been a policy paradigm behind the development of waste policies in the European Union including the End-of-Life Vehicle (ELV) Directive (2000/53/EC). This study compares and explains the environmental effectiveness of the ELV programmes in the United Kingdom and in Sweden between 1990 and 2005, using a framework that integrates the Dutch approach to policy network analysis (PNA) with a theory-based evaluation (TBE). It finds that: (1) the perception of the producers towards EPR can be influenced largely by their social interaction with other actors, (2) the announcement of policies, and (3) the cohesion of policy instruments are key factors affecting the effectiveness of the programmes. As the latter two depend on the determination and comprehension of national governments, the transposition of the EU EPR Directives might not automatically lead to effective implementation and intended outcomes unless the Member States adhere to the principle and the development of its intervention theory.     

The use of cost–benefit analysis in environmental policies: Some issues raised by the Water Framework Directive implementation in France

This paper aims to practically contribute to the literature on the use of cost–benefit analysis (CBA) and economic evaluation in environmental decision-making through a practical case study: the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in France, for the first cycle (2010–2015). The WFD requires that Member States achieve “good status” for all water bodies in 2015. However, exemptions can apply, if justified, on natural, technical or economic reasons. For the latter, EU guidance documents recommend to use CBA. In France, the water agencies carried out 710 CBAs on proposed restoration projects for water bodies. This article reports on this experience. Issues concerning these analyses are discussed, especially the assessment of non-market benefits. Finally, this article questions the use of economic analysis in the implementation of environmental policy.     

Preparing for the European Thematic Strategy on air pollution: at the interface between science and policy

In 2005 the European Commission launched a Thematic Strategy on air pollution for the European Union. We use an analytical framework that relates credibility, legitimacy and relevance of assessments to “boundary work” between science and policy to address the following questions: (1) how did experts, stakeholders and policy makers in the process distribute roles and tasks between them and how did they work together and (2) to what extent and in what way did this constitute credibility, legitimacy and relevance of the assessment? We conclude that the European Commission took great effort to organise a transparent assessment process based on scientific knowledge and with extensive involvement of stakeholders and Member States. Bilateral consultations, review of integrated assessment models, and transparency and documentation of integrated assessment work played an important role in enhancing credibility, legitimacy and relevance for the Member States. On the other hand, some industry groups were not satisfied with their role as stakeholders instead of experts. However the assessment established a sufficient degree of credibility, legitimacy and relevance with the majority of the actors involved to have an impact on the actual policy process.