总量控制与交易机制中的碳补偿制度研究

总量控制与交易机制中的碳补偿制度是一种有助于受控企业灵活履行减排义务的制度,能有效降低企业减排成本、提高经济效率、增强减排动力。发达国家非常重视这一制度的发展,并在研究、立法、实际应用方面取得了一定的成效。本文从碳补偿制度在发达国家的发展现状入手,对该制度的基本架构和交易情况进行了分析与研究;同时结合国际经验,对碳补偿制度在中国的发展提出了几点建议,为正在进行的区域碳交易试点以及未来建设全国范围的碳交易市场做准备。     

A ton is not always a ton: A road-test of landfill,manure, and afforestation/reforestation offset protocols in the U.S. carbon market

The outcome of recent international climate negotiations suggests we are headed toward a more fragmented carbon market, with multiple emission trading and offset programs operating in parallel. To effectively harmonize and link across programs, it will be important to ensure that across offset programs and protocols that a “ton is a ton”. In this article, we consider how sample offsets projects in the U.S. carbon market are treated across protocols from five programs: the Clean Development Mechanism, Climate Action Reserve, Chicago Climate Exchange, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, and the U.S. EPA's former program, Climate Leaders. We find that differences among protocols for landfill methane, manure management, and afforestation/reforestation project types in accounting boundary definitions, baseline setting methods, measurement rules, emission factors, and discounts lead to differences in offsets credited that are often significant (e.g. greater than 50%). We suggest opportunities for modification and harmonization of protocols that can improve offset quality and credibility and enhance prospects for future linking of trading units and systems.     

Motivations and barriers for Western Australian broad-acre farmers to adopt carbon farming

Carbon farming policies aim to contribute to climate change mitigation, but their success strongly depends on whether landholders actually adopt desired practices or participate in offered programs. The Australian Government’s Carbon Farming Initiative and Emissions Reduction Fund policies were designed to incentivise the adoption of carbon farming practices. Although these policies have been active since December 2011, farmer engagement has been limited, and net emissions reductions low as a result. We surveyed broad-acre farmers in the Western Australian wheatbelt to explore their drivers and barriers to adopting carbon farming practices and participating in carbon farming policy programs. Drivers of adoption included knowledge and perception of co-benefits (for yield, productivity, and the environment), knowing another adopter, and believing that changes to farm management are an appropriate method to reduce Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. Barriers to adoption included lack of information, uncertainty and costs. The key barrier to participation was policy and political uncertainty. The determinants of adoption and participation that we identify in our study offer important insights into how to best ensure the success of Australia’s land sector-based climate change policies. We conclude that, to increase landholder engagement, the co-benefits and climate change benefits of carbon farming practices must be actively promoted, and additional information is needed about the costs associated with adoption. Information diffusion is best achieved if it actively leverages landholder social networks. Finally, our results indicate that landholder buy-in to carbon farming could be greatly enhanced by achieving more continuity in Australian climate change policies and politics.     

浙江省都市区碳排放时空演变及其影响因素

都市区建设促进城镇协同发展,对碳排放产生了影响,因此研究都市区建设与碳排放的关系,有助于探索减排的有效途径。基于浙江省各县市区2010—2018年间土地利用、能源消费等数据,测算碳排放量;利用空间自相关方法和空间计量回归模型,探讨四大都市区碳排放的时空演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明：（1）杭州都市区是浙江省最大的碳排放都市区,其次是宁波、温州和金义都市区。（2）碳排放在空间上具有明显的集聚特征。不同都市区碳排放的时空演变特征具有显著的差异性。（3）都市区建设有助于各城镇的协同作用,促进资源的高效配置和利用,进而降低碳排放。（4）都市区碳排放的影响因素和驱动机制受到都市区发展阶段和特色影响,形成不同的空间特征。（5）都市区低碳建设任务和方案是由其独特的碳排放驱动机制和时空演变特征决定的。     

中国高温热浪对碳排放量的响应

基于中国碳核算数据及气象资料,分析了8大经济区(30个省份)近20a来(1997～2017年)碳排放量和高温热浪的本底变化特征,探讨了不同区域高温热浪对碳排放量的多尺度响应关系.结果表明:(1)研究时段内,8个经济区的碳排放量均显著增加,增速最大和最小的经济区分别为黄河中游和西北;(2)不同级别(轻度、中度和重度)高温...     

The opportunities and responsibility for carbon cycle science in the U.S.

Strategies to address climate change increasingly include options to manage the terrestrial and oceanic portions of the carbon cycle, whether as part of national commitments to international treaties, or as elements of entrepreneurial business plans. Carbon cycle science has much to contribute to informing these strategies, but must consider how to organize so as to best provide more “usable science.” Experience in other areas of earth systems science demonstrates that for knowledge to be more useful to decision makers and others outside the scientific community, deliberate mechanisms must be created to prioritize, conduct and disseminate research that are informed by the needs of the target audience. Carbon cycle science has not yet explored operating in this more deliberate mode. Carbon management thus presents an opportunity for some portion of carbon cycle research to become more directly relevant to societal decision-making through innovative ways of organizing research and operating programs.     

A novel framework for analysis of cross-media environmental effects from agricultural conservation practices

Agricultural ecosystems are a source of greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions and losses of nutrients to waterways. Several studies have recognized this and have documented the potential to reduce GHG fluxes and nutrient loss to waterways by using carbon offsets to fund the implementation of land retirement and afforestation. However, the ability to use land for both agricultural production and environmental conservation is also important. This study develops a novel analytical framework that is used to examine the cross-media (water and air) environmental effects of implementing offset-funded conservation practices in a working-lands setting. The framework is applied to a case study which examines the extent to which carbon pricing can affect practice implementation costs and the optimal distribution of these practices throughout an agricultural watershed. Results indicate that carbon offsets can reduce conservation practice implementation costs and have the potential to reduce greater amounts of nonpoint source pollution for a given cost of implementation. This conclusion has significant implications for policymaking, particularly with regard to using markets for GHG emissions to achieve water quality improvements where water quality trading or government conservation programs have historically been unsuccessful.     

Influence of Methodology and Assumptions on Reported National Carbon Flux Inventories: An Illustration from the Canadian Forest Sector

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has developed guidelines to standardize the international reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals by signatory nations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. With regard to forest sector carbon fluxes, the IPCC guidelines require only that those fluxes directly associated with human activities (i.e., harvesting and land-use change) be reported. In Canada, the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS2) has been used to assess carbon fluxes from the entire forest sector. This model accounts for carbon fluxes associated with both anthropogenic and natural disturbances, such as wild fires and insects. We combined model results for the period 1985 to 1989 with additional data to compile seven different national carbon flux inventories for the forest sector. These inventories incorporate different system components under a variety of seemingly plausible assumptions, some of which are encouraged refinements to the default flux inventory described in the IPCC guidelines. The resulting estimated net carbon fluxes varied from a net removal of 185,000 kt carbon per year of the inventory period to a netemission of 89,000 kt carbon per year. Following the default procedures in the IPCC guidelines, while using the best available national data, produced an inventory with a net removal of atmospheric carbon. Adding the effect of natural disturbances to that inventory reversed the sign of the net flux resulting in a substantial emission. Including the carbon fluxes associated with root biomass in the first inventory increased the magnitude of the estimated net removal. The variability of these results emphasizes the need for a systems approach in constructing a flux inventory. We argue that the choice of which fluxes to include in the inventory should be based on the importance of these fluxes to the overall carbon budget and not on the perceived ease with which flux estimates can be obtained. The results of this analysis also illustrate two specific points. Even those Canadian forests which are most free from direct human interactions—forests in which no commercial harvesting occurs—are not in equilibrium, and their contribution to national carbon fluxes should be included in the reported flux inventory. Moreover, those forest areas that are subject to direct management are still substantially impacted by natural disturbances. The critical effect of inventory methodology and assumptions on inventory results has important ramifications for efforts to “monitor” and “verify” programs aimed at mitigating global carbon emissions.     

CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>-fertilization and potential future terrestrial carbon uptake in India

There is huge knowledge gap in our understanding of many terrestrial carbon cycle processes. In this paper, we investigate the bounds on terrestrial carbon uptake over India that arises solely due to CO ₂ -fertilization. For this purpose, we use a terrestrial carbon cycle model and consider two extreme scenarios: unlimited CO₂-fertilization is allowed for the terrestrial vegetation with CO₂ concentration level at 735 ppm in one case, and CO₂-fertilization is capped at year 1975 levels for another simulation. Our simulations show that, under equilibrium conditions, modeled carbon stocks in natural potential vegetation increase by 17 Gt-C with unlimited fertilization for CO₂ levels and climate change corresponding to the end of 21st century but they decline by 5.5 Gt-C if fertilization is limited at 1975 levels of CO₂ concentration. The carbon stock changes are dominated by forests. The area covered by natural potential forests increases by about 36% in the unlimited fertilization case but decreases by 15% in the fertilization-capped case. Thus, the assumption regarding CO₂-fertilization has the potential to alter the sign of terrestrial carbon uptake over India. Our model simulations also imply that the maximum potential terrestrial sequestration over India, under equilibrium conditions and best case scenario of unlimited CO₂-fertilization, is only 18% of the 21st century SRES A2 scenarios emissions from India. The limited uptake potential of the natural potential vegetation suggests that reduction of CO₂ emissions and afforestation programs should be top priorities.     

The value of energy efficiency programs for US residential and commercial buildings in a warmer world

US residential and commercial buildings were responsible for about 41 exajoules (EJ) of primary energy use per year in 2002, accounting for approximately 9% of the world fossil-fuel related anthropogenic carbon (C) emissions of 6.7 Gt that contribute to climate change. US Government-sponsored building energy efficiency research and implementation programs are focused on reducing energy consumption in US residential and commercial buildings and reducing these carbon (C) emissions. Although not specifically intended for adaptation to a warmer climate and less effective than under today’s cooler climate, these programs also could help reduce energy demand in a future warmer world. Warming scenarios projected by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 imply net overall decreases in both site energy and primary energy consumption in US residential and commercial buildings, largely because of the reduced need for heating. However, there would be as much as a 25% increase in building space cooling demand and a significant part of the increase could be offset by energy-efficiency improvements in buildings. Overall, in the US, buildings-related energy efficiency programs would reduce site energy consumption in buildings in the US by more than 2 EJ in 2020 and primary energy by more than 3.5 EJ, more than enough to offset the projected growth in cooling energy consumption due to climate change and growth in the US building stock. The savings would have an estimated annual net value at 2005 energy prices of between $45.0 and $47.3 billion to consumers.

森林凋落物研究现状及我国西南喀斯特地区研究展望

近几十年来,我国西南喀斯特地区生态环境退化严重,石漠化面积迅速扩大,林地覆盖率急剧下降,成为制约我国西部大开发生态建设中不可回避的重要科学问题,严重影响了西南地区社会、经济的可持续发展。喀斯特地区土层薄且侵蚀严重,土壤中的有机碳和营养盐主要来自地表枯枝落叶层的分解及累积。在气候变暖、陆地生态系统土壤温度升高、土壤有机碳急速流失和土壤质量退化的背景下,分析不同林下凋落物量和降解动态以及土壤有机碳库积累差异,揭示西南喀斯特地区不同林地凋落物归还量及其对土壤碳库积累的贡献具有极其重要的意义,将为喀斯特地区林地恢复重建和石漠化遏制工作提供科研依据。     

Comparison of registry methodologies for reporting carbon benefits for afforestation projects in the United States

No mandatory national program currently exists to mitigate climate change in the US Consequently, voluntary programs and mandatory state-level programs are multiplying to allow users to register emission-offset activities, creating multiple often contradictory measurement and recording standards.For the land use sector we examined a hypothetical project: tree planting on rangelands in California. We apply four sets of protocols from the following registries – the California Climate Action Registry, the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative and the USDOE 1605(b) program – and compare the results to the ‘actual’ net sequestration and also briefly compare them to international protocols such as the relevant Clean Development Mechanism methodology. Carbon in land use can be estimated accurately, precisely and cost-effectively, but to achieve this requires good protocols. As predicted, the consequence of applying different protocols for reportable carbon was significant. The choice of measurement pools, the handling of the baseline and the issue of uncertainty led to a baseline estimate of 0–66,690 t CO₂-e, and final sequestered carbon totals (after 60 years) that varied between 118,044 and 312,685 t CO₂-e—a factor of 2.5 difference. The amount reported under 1605(b) is the closest to “actual” with CCX entity reporting the most divergent.     

Reconciling the supply of and demand for carbon cycle science in the U.S. agricultural sector

When asking the question, “How can institutions design science policies for the benefit of decision makers?” Sarewitz and Pielke [Sarewitz, D., Pielke Jr., R.A., this issue. The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science. Environ. Sci. Policy 10] posit the idea of “reconciling supply and demand of science” as a conceptual tool for assessment of science programs. We apply the concept to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) carbon cycle science program. By evaluating the information needs of decision makers, or the “demand”, along with the supply of information by the USDA, we can ascertain where matches between supply and demand exist, and where science policies might miss opportunities. We report the results of contextual mapping and of interviews with scientists at the USDA to evaluate the production and use of current agricultural global change research, which has the stated goal of providing “optimal benefit” to decision makers on all levels. We conclude that the USDA possesses formal and informal mechanisms by which scientists evaluate the needs of users, ranging from individual producers to Congress and the President. National-level demands for carbon cycle science evolve as national and international policies are explored. Current carbon cycle science is largely derived from those discussions and thus anticipates the information needs of producers. However, without firm agricultural carbon policies, such information is currently unimportant to producers.     

Sulfide elimination by intermittent nitrate dosing in sewer sediments

The formation of hydrogen sulfide in biofilms and sediments in sewer systems can cause severe pipe corrosions and health hazards, and requires expensive programs for its prevention. The aim of this study is to propose a new control strategy and the optimal condition for sulfide elimination by intermittent nitrate dosing in sewer sediments. The study was carried out based on lab-scale experiments and batch tests using real sewer sediments. The intermittent nitrate dosing mode and the optimal control conditionwere investigated. The results indicated that the sulfide-intermittent-elimination strategy by nitrate dosing is advantageous for controlling sulfide accumulation in sewer sediment. The oxidation-reduction potential is a sensitive indicator parameter that can reflect the control effect and the minimum N/S (nitrate/sulfide) ratiowith slight excess nitrate is necessary for optimal conditions of efficient sulfide controlwith lower carbon source loss. The optimal control condition is feasible for the sulfide elimination in sewer systems.     

Issues related to including forestry-based offsets in a GHG emissions trading system

Including the forestry sector as a mitigation option is critical to successful implementation of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Since emissions trading and other related economic instruments are likely to be used to meet the treaty's goals, integrating carbon credits from the forestry sector in an emissions trading system and into the Clean Development Mechanism and Joint Implementation is necessary if the GHG mitigation potential of the forestry sector is to be fully realized.Some of the concepts presented in this paper build on a discussion paper prepared for the Australian Greenhouse Challenge Office, preparatory to a sinks workbook. The sinks workbook is designed to help Australian companies measure carbon sequestration from projects undertaken to fulfill their pledges as part of the Australian government's voluntary Greenhouse Challenge initiative. The ideas presented in the original discussion paper (as well as in this paper) were intended to stimulate discussion and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Australian government.This paper outlines some of the methodological questions raised in determining how to generate credits from forestry projects in the context of the Clean Development Mechanism, Joint Implementation and national emissions trading programs. These include baseline determination, which carbon pools to count, leakage issues, carbon accounting methods and the fate of wood products.     

Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Scenarios in Mexico for Year 2005: Industrial Cogeneration and Efficient Lighting

An analysis of the impacts on Mexican energy demand and associated carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the year 2005 due to efficient lighting in the commercial and residential sectors and cogeneration in the industrial sector is presented. Estimation of CO₂ abatement costs and an incremental cost curve for CO₂ mitigation options are considered. These technologies are cost effective opportunities, and together are projected to reduce CO₂ emissions in 2005 by nearly 13 percent. Implementation of efficient lighting is already part of the demand side management (DSM) programs of the Mexican state-owned utility. However, there are important barriers that may hinder the implementation of large scale cogeneration plants.     

Carbon Dioxide Emission Reduction Scenarios in Mexico for Year 2005: Industrial Cogeneration and Efficient Lighting

An analysis of the impacts on Mexican energy demand and associated carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in the year 2005 due to efficient lighting in the commercial and residential sectors and cogeneration in the industrial sector is presented. Estimation of CO₂ abatement costs and an incremental cost curve for CO₂ mitigation options are considered. These technologies are cost effective opportunities, and together are projected to reduce CO₂ emissions in 2005 by nearly 13 percent. Implementation of efficient lighting is already part of the demand side management (DSM) programs of the Mexican state-owned utility. However, there are important barriers that may hinder the implementation of large scale cogeneration plants.     

环境影响评价中停车场CO排放量的计算

现在的建设项目大多建设停车场,其排放的污染物中一氧化碳的浓度最大,但是,鉴于经费制约,实测比较困难.确定排放量最关键的参数为等速工况单车排放因子,本文用五种方法对其进行拟和,并通过结果的比较,认为小型车适用指数法,大中型车适用多项式法(二次),并给出了CO等速工况单车排放因子拟和公式,相关系数均在99%以上.最后给出了停车场CO排放量的计算公式,希望对广大环评工作者有所裨益.     

Policies,Measures and the Monitoring Needs of Forest Sector Carbon Mitigation

Forest sector mitigation options can be grouped into three categories: (1) management for carbon (C) conservation, (2) management for C storage, and (3) management for C substitution. The paper provides background information on the technical potential for C conservation and sequestration worldwide and the average costs of achieving it. It reviews policy measures that have been successfully applied at regional and project levels toward the reduction of atmospheric greenhouse gases. It also describes both national programs and jointly implemented international activities. The monitoring methods, and the items to monitor, differ across these categories. Remote sensing is a good approach for the monitoring of C conservation, but not for C substitution, which requires estimation of the fossil fuels that would be displaced and the continued monitoring of electricity generation sources. C storage, on the other hand, includes C in products which may be traded internationally. Their monitoring will require that bi- or multi-lateral protocols be set up for this purpose.     

Emissions mitigation opportunities and practice in Northeastern United States

Climate change is creating substantial and growing impacts on the Northeastern United States. As the world’s seventh largest contributor of heat trapping carbon dioxide, the region will play a critical role in moving towards stabilizing global concentrations at a level that avoids serious adverse consequences. The Northeast region is well positioned to be a leader in technology and policy innovation for reducing emissions, and can drive national and international programs that are essential to providing a safer future climate. This paper summarizes technological mitigation options and measures as well as opportunities for public and private actions to reduce emissions. The authors propose a ‘3% solution’ of annual emission reductions to put the Northeastern United States on an emissions reductions path that is consistent with the level of reductions necessary to avoid dangerous climate change. The 3% solution requires a combination of policies that will reduce the energy imbedded in the region’s infrastructure and technologies, and individual action to choose the lowest emitting of available technologies and practices.