Challenges and opportunities of a post-Kyoto mitigation regime: a survey of the European electricity sector

This paper empirically shows how the uncertainty associated to the absence of a mitigation regime which follows the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol (UN FCCC Kyoto Protocol) is affecting investments in abatement activities in the EU electricity sector and, thus, future emissions levels. Based on a survey of EU electric utilities, it identifies the most likely post-Kyoto scenarios considered by them and how they are coping with such uncertainty in their investment decisions. It is found that firms react differently to such uncertainty and adopt different strategies to cope with it, diversifying their emissions control activities. Although most companies foresee post-Kyoto compliance regimes with emissions trading systems, they differ in their perceptions of the form that a post-Kyoto regime could take and are, thus, positioning differently to face such regime. The particular features of each company and the country where they operate affect their perception of the uncertainties, their position regarding a possible post-Kyoto regime and their inclination to carry out mitigation activities. Complying with Kyoto (and, eventually, post-Kyoto) targets significantly influences the investment decisions of European electricity companies. Uncertainty about a post-Kyoto regime may already be affecting investments in mitigation activities in the electricity sector. Therefore, significant progress has to be made in the definition of a post-Kyoto regime. It is urgent to define and agree internationally the emissions reduction objectives and the mitigation instruments that will be accepted for compliance, ensuring continuity of the international emissions trading system foreseen in the Kyoto Protocol.

The Kyoto Protocol: provisions and unresolved issues relevant to land-use change and forestry

This paper describes the relevant text of the Kyoto Protocol and its implications for land-use change and forestry (LUCF) activities and addresses some of the technical issues that merit further consideration and clarification before the treaty comes into force. Although the phrasing of the Protocol is sometimes ambiguous and the opportunities limited, the Protocol does provide for some selected forest-related activities to be used to meet national commitments for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. To implement the forest-related portions of the Protocol, most importantly: (1) a clear definition for the word ‘reforestation' is required, (2) contradictory wording in Article 3.3 needs to be clarified to establish how credits are to be measured, (3) further thought should be given to the sentence in Article 3.7 which provides that countries with a net carbon sink in LUCF in 1990 cannot include emissions from land-use change in their 1990 baseline, whereas countries with a net carbon source in LUCF can include those emissions in their 1990 baseline, (4) the rules and baseline issues for joint implementation and the clean development mechanism need to be clarified and (5) inclusion of additional forest management activities needs to be considered.     

Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agreeing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as "equitable". Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.     

CDM in the Kyoto Negotiations:

The Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) under the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has its origins in the decade of UNFCCC negotiations. ‘Joint implementation’ and ‘activities implemented jointly pilot’ opened the door for the project-based mechanisms between developed and developing countries. The US proposal of the Joint Implementation in the Kyoto Protocol negotiations was almost identical with CDM approved in Kyoto; however, a detour around the Clean Development Fund (CDF) concept raised by Brazil in the negotiations catalyzed the mutual understanding on the win-win nature of the concept of joint implementation.CDM has been played an important role to bridge the developed and developing countries in its development process initiated as the joint implementation in the UNFCCC, and can lead to the cooperative future in the implementation stage starting from the year 2003, including the development of future commitments beyond 2013. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Equity rules for burden sharing in the mitigation process of climate change

Although international negotiation on the mitigation of climate change is a process of determining burden-sharing rules between countries, there has been no clear agreement on equity principles for burden sharing. During the negotiating process up to the Kyoto Protocol, various proposals were made on such burden-sharing rules, but an agreement on emission targets for Annex I countries was achieved without explicitly agree-ing to any rules. In the next phase of the negotiation, debates on emission targets are likely to shift from those between developed countries to those between all parties to the convention. In such a phase, debates on burden-sharing rules will be revisited. The purpose of this paper is: (1) to determine implicitly a formula for the rule for burden sharing between Annex I countries that was considered to be underlying the emission targets of the Kyoto Protocol, and (2) to examine plausible emission targets and timing of commitments for non-Annex I countries in the future by using the result of the analysis on the Kyoto Protocol. A multi-regression method is used for this purpose. It was concluded that the burden sharing between Annex I countries in the Kyoto Protocol can mostly be explained by three variables: the increase in the rate of CO₂ emission during the years 1990 to 2010, the increase in the rate of afforestation between 1990 and 1995, and the GDP per capita at the time of negotiation. The timing of future commitments of developing countries and the levels of targets differ widely, depending on which index or formula is agreed as “equitable”. Some of the developing countries would have to start limiting their emissions within several years if GDP per capita or CO₂ per capita were chosen as the burden-sharing indicator. Developing countries would not have to make commitments until the mid-late 21st century if population growth rate were chosen. If the inferred formula of the Kyoto Protocol were applied to developing countries, they would have had to start mild limitation from 1990.     

浅谈参与清洁发展机制的意义

清洁发展机制,是《京都议定书》中引入的三个灵活履约机制之一。由于发达国家减排温室气体的成本是发展中国家的几倍甚至几十倍。发达国家因此通过在发展中国家实施具有温室气体减排效果的项目,把项目所产生的温室气体减少的排放量作为履行《京都议定书》所规定的一部分义务。对清洁生产机制的理论和意义进行了简要的阐述和说明。     

Trees as carbon sinks and sources in the European Union

The carbon (C) sinks and sources of trees that may be accounted for under Article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol during the first commitment period from 2008 to 2012 were estimated for the countries of the European Union (EU) based on existing forest inventory data. Two sets of definitions for the accounted activities, afforestation, reforestation and deforestation, were applied. Applying the definitions by the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the trees were estimated to be a C source in eight and a C sink in seven countries, and in the whole EU a C source of 5.4 Tg year⁻¹. Applying the definitions by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC), the trees were estimated to be a C source in three and a C sink in 12 countries, and in the whole EU a C sink of 0.1 Tg year⁻¹. These estimates are small compared with the C sink of trees in all EU forests, 63 Tg year⁻¹, the anthropogenic CO₂ emissions of the EU, 880 Tg C year⁻¹, and the reduction target of the CO₂ emissions, 8%. In individual countries, the estimated C sink of the trees accounted for under Article 3.3 was at largest 8% and the C source 12% compared with the CO₂ emissions.     

合成氨副产CO2气的回收与利用

CO2是《京都议定书》要求减排的6种温室气体之一,《京都议定书》还确立了有助于发展中国家获得资金和先进技术的清洁发展机制（CDM）。本文结合实际工程案例,介绍了合成氨副产CO2气的回收和利用方法,为我国氮肥行业申请CDM项目资助,回收利用CO2,减少CO2排放提供技术参考。     

Sensitivity of amounts and distribution of tropical forest carbon credits depending on baseline rules

One of the largest sources of global greenhouse gas emissions can be addressed through conservation of tropical forests by channeling funds to developing countries at a cost-savings for developed countries. However, questions remain to be resolved in negotiating a system for including reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD) in a post-Kyoto climate treaty. The approach to determine national baselines, or reference levels, for quantifying REDD has emerged as central to negotiations over a REDD mechanism in a post-Kyoto policy framework. The baseline approach is critical to the success of a REDD mechanism because it affects the quantity, credibility, and equity of credits generated from efforts to reduce forest carbon emissions. We compared outcomes of seven proposed baseline approaches as a function of country circumstances, using a retrospective analysis of FAO-FRA data on forest carbon emissions from deforestation. Depending upon the baseline approach used, the total credited emissions avoided ranged over two orders of magnitude for the same quantity of actual emissions reductions. There was also a wide range in the relative distribution of credits generated among the five country types we identified. Outcomes were especially variable for countries with high remaining forest and low rates of deforestation (HFLD). We suggest that the most credible approaches measure emissions avoided with respect to a business-as-usual baseline scenario linked to historic emissions data, and allow limited adjustments based on forest carbon stocks.     

The 1997 Kyoto Protocol: What Does It Mean for Project-Based Climate Change Mitigation?

The Kyoto Protocol effectively ends the Activities Implemented Jointly (AIJ) pilot phase. However, it is premature to conclude that Articles 6 and 12 of the Protocol vindicate joint implementation and successfully conclude the AIJ pilot phase. Rather, Articles 6 and 12 can be seen as part of the price developing countries felt they had to pay to obtain a Protocol. Debate over Articles 6 and 12 is likely to be as contentious as the JI/AIJ debates that preceded it. Indeed, the AIJ pilot phase has not answered many concerns posed by developing countries and other interest groups. While companies and countries participating in AIJ have had wide latitude to pursue almost any projects they wished, it remains to be seen how much of this flexibility will be preserved as Articles 6 and 12 become operational. This will determine whether the importance and cost-effectiveness originally predicted for the joint implementation concept comes to pass. A review of the JI and AIJ literature suggests many potential stumbling blocks to achieving large-scale and cost-effective emissions reductions through project-based mitigation efforts under the Kyoto Protocol. This paper identifies these stumbling blocks and systematically assesses their potential implications. The Greenhouse Gas Offset Cost Assessment and Decisionmaking Model (GGOCAD©) is used to qualitatively as well as quantitatively evaluate the importance of key criteria and methodological decisions under Articles 6 and 12. It is easy to develop scenarios in which project-based mitigation through Articles 6 and 12 would not be permitted to contribute substantially to achievement of countries’ obligations under Article 3. Overcoming the challenges facing project-based mitigation efforts is important to achieving the larger goals of the Kyoto Protocol.     

清洁发展机制(CDM)实践及理论研究进展

清洁发展机制(CDM)是《京都议定书》(KP)中规定的发达国家与发展中国家之间的温室气体减排合作方式。随着2005年2月26日KP的生效,CDM实施活动在全球范围内开始全面展开。中国被公认为是温室气体减排潜力最大的国家,具有广阔的开展CDM合作的前景。为了能配合国内CDM的实践活动,本文在大量文献及重要文件研究基础上,总结了CDM诞生10年来的实践及理论发展情况,并分析了CDM今后的发展趋势。     

The potential contribution of sinks to meeting Kyoto Protocol commitments

The Kyoto Protocol to the climate convention makes provision for sink enhancement activities to contribute to meeting the greenhouse gas emissions limitation commitments of industrialised countries. This paper analyses the potential contribution of sink enhancement activities to meeting commitments of industrialised countries. Six scenarios covering different categories of eligible sinks are analysed. A range of the potential magnitude of the carbon sequestered by each category of sinks is tested. Since cost curves for the different types of sink enhancement activities are not available for most countries, a range of average costs is used with the lowest cost allowing maximum use of sinks. The effects considered are the impacts on compliance costs for OECD countries, economies in transition, and developing countries and the mix of actions used by industrialised countries to achieve compliance. In every scenario, at least some of the sinks have costs lower than the market price, so the larger the eligible sinks, the lower the compliance costs for industrialised countries. Greater use of sinks also reduces the net income received by the economies in transition and developing countries. Increased use of sinks lowers emission reductions implemented in industrialised countries and reduces non-sink activity under the Clean Development Mechanism.     

The Kyoto Protocol could make a difference for the optimal forest-based CO2 mitigation strategy: some results from GORCAM

The Kyoto Protocol was agreed on by more than 150 nations in December, 1997 and (if and when ratified) will establish international commitments to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. Under the Kyoto Protocol, some of the carbon emissions and removals within the land-use change and forestry sector can be counted toward a country's commitments for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. In addition to the impacts that land-use practices have on CO₂ emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, changes in the carbon stocks of forests (possibly including forest soils) caused by the direct human activities afforestation, reforestation and deforestation and taking place in the `first commitment period' (2008–2012), are to be accounted for under the Kyoto Protocol. Credits for carbon sinks in the biosphere are limited to projects initiated since 1990. A modified version of the model GORCAM has been used to assess eligible emission-reduction credits under the Kyoto regime and to illustrate how the optimal forest-based strategy for carbon dioxide mitigation might change under the provisions of the Kyoto Protocol. The Kyoto Protocol offers rewards for only some of the changes in carbon stocks that might occur and hence the forestry project that produces the most emission reduction credits under the Kyoto Protocol is not necessarily the same project that produces the greatest benefit for net emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Supplementing the Protocol with appropriate definitions, interpretations and agreements could help to make sure that it does not provide incentive for activities that run counter to the objectives of the Framework Convention on Climate Change.     

全球二氧化碳排放权交易市场的分析与展望

京都议定书提出了发达国家削减二氧化碳排放量的具体目标及削减方案。因此二氧化碳排放权交易成为关注的热点。在对排放权交易市场的特性．作用及利害关系分析的基础上．提出排放权交易市场将带动一批相关的服务业发展。英国，日本在国内建立交易市场的动作和进展．值得重视和借鉴。     

碳交易市场发展现状与未来走势分析

自《京都议定书》生效以来,国际碳市场取得了长足的发展,并在推动各国低碳转型方面发挥了积极作用。由于受国际气候制度演变带来的政策不确定性影响,以及欧洲主权债务危机的冲击,当前国际碳市场的发展陷入停滞。未来国际碳市场将何去何从？本文立足主要国家国内碳市场发展、国际气候谈判进程以及德班气候变化会议成果,对国际碳市场的未来发展走势进行了系统分析,提出2012年后的国际碳市场将由联合国气候公约缔约方会议相关决定和议定书第二承诺期两个框架同时驱动,同时还将在很大程度上受到主要国家国内政策取向的影响。本文同时还介绍了中国国内碳交易市场的建设进展及其面·临的主要挑战,最后针对环境保护部门在国内碳市场建设中可发挥的作用提出了相应的建议。     

Land Area Eligible for Afforestation and Reforestation within the Clean Development Mechanism: A Global Analysis of the Impact of Forest Definition

Within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol, countries have significant latitude to define a forest. The most important parameter affecting area designated as forest is the minimum crown cover which can be set between 10 and 30%. The choice will have implications for the amount of land available in a country for afforestation and reforestation activities within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM-AR). In this paper, we present an analysis of the regional differences in land availability for CDM-AR projects. We then examine how the choice of a high or low threshold value for crown cover will affect the area available for CDM activities and how the limitations imposed by this element of the definition compares to other factors that are likely to limit CDM activities. Results represent a global analysis that included all countries not included in Annex I of the Kyoto Protocol, and examined the effect on land availability of a range of crown cover thresholds ranging from 10–30%. Of the 140 Non-Annex One countries, 107 countries were found to have a potential for CDM-AR projects. Asia had the largest amount of combined area suitable for CDM-AR at the 10% crown cover threshold level. However, at 30%, South America had the greatest amount of land available, and a large change in available land area, which increased by almost five times compared to what was available at the 10% threshold. The area available in Africa increased by a factor of 5.5. Central America showed the largest increase, to almost 10 times more at the 30% threshold. By contrast, within Asia, the area increase was comparatively less, but still the area nearly doubled. Globally, a low threshold of 10% crown cover excluded almost 2/3 of the land identified that was eligible at 30%, over 5 million km². The spatial analyses showed not only the effects of the choice of the crown cover criterion, but also where the land was available for CDM activities within each country at different thresholds. Protected areas account for 10–20% of the CDM-AR eligible area in most countries.     

Advancing the climate regime through linking domestic emission trading systems?

More and more countries are incorporating the instrument of emissions trading into their national climate policies. This emerging mosaic of emissions trading schemes (ETS) raises the question of whether they should be linked with each other. From an economic point of view, linking of domestic schemes is supposed to increase the economic efficiency of carbon markets. In addition, linking is also expected by some to yield substantial political benefits in terms of the evolution of the UNFCCC/Kyoto regime. However, these optimistic prospects are based on a best-case scenario where all major countries establish environmentally effective emissions trading systems and then link them with each other. Real-life politics might develop rather differently. This paper therefore examines to what extent the current status of emissions trading in industrialised countries provides a basis for reinforcing and moving forward the international climate regime through linking domestic ETS. After comparing emerging emissions trading schemes from an institutional perspective, it emerges that not only emissions trading is at a very early stage in most countries, in addition the emerging systems are probably going to be designed very differently from the EU ETS. While for some design features such as the coverage design differences do not matter, there are some areas where the plans in many non-EU countries look crucially different from the EU system. The outlook for a linked international ETS is therefore currently still very uncertain. Given this state of affairs, the EU should pro-actively engage with the non-EU countries to try to harmonise their developing national emissions trading schemes with the EU ETS, widely disseminate the lessons it has learned from the EU ETS, strongly make the case for environmental integrity and at the same time make clear that systems that want to link to the EU ETS will need to meet certain quality criteria.

Tropical deforestation in a future international climate policy regime—lessons from the Brazilian Amazon

The possibility of adopting national targets for carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from tropical deforestation in a future international climate treaty has received increasing attention recently. This attention has been prompted by proposals to this end and more intensified talks on possible commitments for developing countries beyond the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol. We analyze four main scientific and political challenges associated with national targets for emissions from tropical deforestation: (1) reducing the uncertainties in emission inventories, (2) preserving the environmental integrity of the treaty, (3) promoting political acceptance and participation in the regime, and (4) providing economic incentives for reduced deforestation. We draw the following conclusions. (1) Although there are large uncertainties in carbon flux from deforestation, these are in the same range as for other emissions included in the current Kyoto protocol (i.e., non-CO₂ GHGs), and they can be reduced. However, for forest degradation processes the uncertainties are larger. A large challenge lies in building competence and institutions for monitoring the full spectrum of land use changes in developing countries. (2 and 3) Setting targets for deforestation is difficult, and uncertainties in future emissions imply a risk of creating ‘tropical hot air’. However, there are proposals that may sufficiently deal with this, and these proposals may also have the advantage of making the targets more attractive, politically speaking. Moreover, we conclude that while a full carbon accounting system will likely be politically unacceptable for tropical countries, the current carbon accounting system should be broadened to include forest degradation in order to safeguard environmental integrity. (4) Doubts can be cast over the possible effect a climate regime alone will have on deforestation rates, though little thorough analysis of this issue has been made.

一种部分碳税机制的经济分析

基于目前全球气候变化谈判的困境提出一种部分碳税机制,这种机制与1997年12月缔约国大会第三次会议所形成的京都议定书第12条确立的清洁发展机制（CDM）的雏形清洁发展基金（CDF）有相似的特征,即要求附件Ｉ缔约方为实现公约的目的和体现公约有区别的责任原则,通过实行统一的税收机制并将税收收入转移到发展中国家作为他们在历史过程中过多排放温室气体的自然债务的补偿     

Article 3.3 and 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol: consequences for industrialised countries’ commitment,the monitoring needs,and possible side effects

In the Kyoto Protocol, industrialised countries have agreed to reduce their carbon dioxide emissions. To achieve that target, direct human induced activities initiated in the Land-use Change and Forestry sector since 1990, shall be included. However, the wording in the Protocol has caused confusion. The IPCC has been requested to deliver a Special Report on Land-use, Land-use Change and Forestry issues arising from this Protocol. In the present study a limited initial assessment of the implications of alternative interpretations of Afforestation, Reforestation and Deforestation (ARD), addition of the soils compartment, the selection of additional activities, and feasibility of monitoring was done for a limited number of countries.The results show that it is possible to keep the biosphere articles in the Protocol even though we had to make several assumptions concerning for example, areas of application and effectiveness of additional activities. The consequences of alternative interpretations for ARD have a large impact on the countries’ assigned amount; varying from a compensation of 26% of total national emissions (Forestry interpretation for Sweden) to an addition of an extra 13% of the emissions (Global interpretation for Australia). Through selection of a large set of additional activities, most of the studied industrialised countries achieve more sequestration than the reduction of emissions they have committed themselves to. Methods for monitoring are available, but there is no one ideal method. Depending on scale and site: a combination of forest inventory with flux measurements and remote sensing is proposed.