An assessment of uncertainty in forest carbon budget projections

Estimates of uncertainty are presented for projections of forest carbon inventory and average annual net carbon flux on private timberland in the US using the model FORCARB. Uncertainty in carbon inventory was approximately ±9% (2000 million metric tons) of the estimated median in the year 2000, rising to 11% (2800 million metric tons) in projection year 2040, with this range covering 95% of the distribution. Relative uncertainties about net flux were higher and more variable than relative uncertainty estimates of carbon inventory. Results indicated that relatively high correlations among projected carbon budgets for the regional forest types led to greater total uncertainty than under assumptions of independence among types, indicating that an accurate portrayal of correlations is important. Uncertainty in soil carbon, closely followed by uncertainty in tree carbon, were most influential in estimating uncertainty in carbon inventory, but uncertainties in projections of volume growth and volume removals were most important in estimating uncertainty in carbon flux. This implies the most effective ways of reducing uncertainty in carbon flux are different from those required to reduce uncertainties in carbon inventory. Analyses as presented here are necessary prerequisites to identify and reduce uncertainty in a systematic and iterative way.     

A spatial assessment of the forest carbon budget for Ukraine

Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change - The spatial representation of forest cover and forest parameters is a prerequisite for undertaking a systems approach to the full and...     

Assessment of the nitrogen and carbon budget of two managed temperate grassland fields

Greenhouse gas budgets as well as the productivity of grassland systems are closely related to the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles. Within the framework of the CarboEurope and NitroEurope projects we have measured C and N exchange on the field scale at the grassland site Oensingen previously converted from arable rotation. The site is located on the Swiss Central Plateau and consists of two parallel fields of equal size. One field was subjected to intensive management with average nitrogen input of 230 kg-N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ and 4–5 cuts per year, and the other to an extensive management with no fertilisation and less frequent cutting. The total C budget of the fields was assessed by measuring the CO₂ exchange by eddy covariance and analysing the carbon import by manure application and export by harvest. The N budget of the managed grassland is more complex. Besides the management related import and export, it includes gaseous exchange in many different forms (NO, NO₂, HNO₃, N₂O, NH₃, N₂) needing different analytical techniques, as well as input by rain and leaching of N-compounds with the soil water. The main (“level-3”) field sites in the NitroEurope project are supposed to measure 95% of the N fluxes at the field scale. For several of the N fluxes specific measurements have been performed for 1 year or longer at the site. Some of the remaining N budget components (dry and wet deposition) could be estimated from results of a national deposition network, while other components (NH₃ and N₂ emission) were estimated based on literature parameterisations. However, we found indications that the (systematic) uncertainties of these estimated N-fluxes are large and that it is important to make site-specific measurement for all relevant budget components. The suitability of corresponding experimental methods is discussed.Analysis of the C budget over a 6-year period (2002–2007) showed a significant mean difference between the two newly established grassland fields with a likely net carbon loss for the extensive management and a net sequestration for the intensive management. Since the C/N ratio of the soil organic matter of the grassland is constrained in a rather narrow range around 9.3, the change in the soil carbon pool is supposed to be accompanied by a corresponding change in the N storage. This approach provided an alternative method to check the N budget of the two grassland fields derived from the individual N fluxes.     

基于涡度相关技术的农田生态系统碳收支评估

以涡度相关技术为主要观测手段,连续观测冬小麦和水稻生态系统主要生长季净生态系统CO₂交换（NEE）的变化规律,评估两种农田生态系统CO₂的源/汇功能.结果表明,整个观测期间,两种作物生态系统CO₂浓度的日变化曲线呈现白天低、晚上高的"一峰一谷"型,冬小麦生态系统变化较为平缓,而水稻生态系统变化则比较剧烈.冬小麦和水稻生态系统白天30 min CO₂通量的平均值分别为-13.4 μmol·m^-2·s^-1和-12.9 μmol·m^-2·s^-1,通量最高值分别出现冬小麦的孕穗期与水稻的开花期.此外,两种作物生长季CO₂通量表现出"U"形曲线的日变化特点,白天以吸收CO₂为主,冬小麦和水稻生态系统分别于12：00和11：30达到吸收峰值;夜间CO₂通量变化较为稳定,表现为呼吸排放CO₂.两种农田生态系统均表现为碳汇,冬小麦与水稻生态系统净碳交换分别为188.2 g·m^-2与233.8 g·m^-2.     

Assessing negative carbon dioxide emissions from the perspective of a national “fair share” of the remaining global carbon budget

We present an assessment of the plausible Paris-aligned fair share nett cumulative carbon dioxide (CO₂) quota for an example nation state, the Republic of Ireland. By Paris-aligned, we mean consistent with the Paris Agreement adopted at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, at Paris, France, in December 2015 (UNFCCC 2015). We compare and contrast this quota with both the aspirations expressed in the current Irish National Policy Position and current national emission projections. The fair share quota is assessed as a maximum of c. 391 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂), equal to 83 tonnes of carbon dioxide (tCO₂) per capita, from 2015, based on a precautionary estimate of the global carbon budget (GCB) and specific interpretation of global equity. Given Ireland’s high current CO₂ per capita emission rate, this would correspond to sustained year-on-year reductions in nett annual CO₂ emissions of over ??11% per year (beginning as of 2016). By contrast, the CO₂ mitigation target indicated in the National Policy Position corresponds to nett annual reduction rates in the range of only ?4.7% per year (low ambition) up to a maximum of ??8.3% per year (high ambition), and projections based on current and immediately planned mitigation measures indicate the possibility, instead, of sustained increases in emissions at a rate of the order of +?0.7% per year. Accordingly, there is a large gap between Paris-aligned ambition and current political and policy reality on the ground, with a significant risk of early emergence of “CO₂ debt” and tacit reliance on rapid deployment of currently speculative (at a relevant scale and feasible cost) negative CO₂ emission technologies to actively remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. While the detailed policy situation will clearly differ from country to country, we suggest that this methodology, and its CO₂debt framing, may be usefully applied in other individual countries or regions. We recommend that such framing be incorporated explicitly into a global mitigation strategy via the statements of nationally determined contributions required to be submitted and updated by all parties under the Paris Agreement processes.

     

功能区土地利用碳收支空间分异及碳补偿分区——以武汉城市圈为例

开展功能区土地利用碳收支评估并构建碳补偿分区优化框架,对于制定适应各功能区低碳策略、指导补偿额度流向、推动区域协调发展具有重要现实意义。以武汉城市圈县域为基本单元,在分析主体功能区划下土地利用碳收支空间分异特征的基础上,借助标准显示性比较优势指数法、SOM-K-means模型、二维关联矩阵等方法,对武汉城市圈进行了碳补偿类型区划分及优化。结果表明：武汉城市圈各县域土地利用碳排放总量地区差异显著,呈现“西高东低,中心最高”空间分布格局;主体功能区划下土地利用碳排放、碳吸收均具有明显空间分异特征,碳吸收与碳排放呈现出一定程度的相对空间分布趋势;武汉城市圈共有16个碳补偿支付区、11个碳补偿获补区以及12个碳补偿平衡区;结合主体功能区规划战略目标,最终形成7类碳补偿空间优化区,并对每一类型区提出了相应的低碳发展方向及策略。     

The catchment sediment budget as a management tool

There is increasing recognition that fine sediment represents an important diffuse source pollutant in surface waters, due to its role in governing the transfer and fate of many substances, including nutrients, heavy metals, pesticides and other organic contaminants, and because of its impacts on aquatic ecology. Catchment management strategies therefore frequently need to include provision for the control of sediment mobilisation and delivery. The sediment budget concept provides a valuable framework for assisting the management and control of diffuse source sediment pollution and associated problems, by identifying the key sources and demonstrating the importance of intermediate stores and the likely impact of upstream mitigation strategies on downstream suspended sediment and sediment-associated contaminant fluxes. Accordingly, the utility of the sediment budget concept for catchment management is further discussed, by introducing examples from several contrasting river basins.     

美国加州低碳燃料标准案评述——自然资源保护协会(NRDC)中国环境法项目

<正>气候变化是各国共同面临的问题,中美两国都在积极采取行动减少温室气体排放,遏制气候变化。有效的温室气体减排政策必须能够有效减少交通领域和工业来源中的温室气体排放,并显著提高能源使用的效率。在美国,上述三个领域被比喻为一条板凳的三条腿,缺一不可。在中国,虽然燃煤仍然是全国碳排放的主要来源,但是有     

Nitrogen budget for eastern Canada

A Lagrangian model incorporating S and N chemistry has been developed by the Atmospheric Environment Service. It was used to produce an annual nitrogen budget including annual nitrogen transboundary flux estimates for 1980 for eastern Canada.The model used trajectories computed from the analyzed winds produced at the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) in addition to the temperature and precipitation analyses. The model parameterized the dry and wet deposition and chemical transformation of NO₂, nitrate (including HNO₃) and PAN using monthly, time-dependent dry deposition velocities, scavenging ratios and transformation rates. The model was integrated throughout eastern Canada on a 6-h basis for 1980. The boundary point concentrations were used to compute input and output fluxes which were summed over several boundary segments to give annual transboundary flux estimates.The total annual N deposition was about 0.6 TgN with high deposition in August and December and the lowest in February. Wet NO₃⁻ deposition (0.2 TgN) was higher than the dry deposition of any single N species (NO₂, nitrate or PAN) but lower than all dry N deposition combined. The annual N input (output) flux was about 1.0 (0.5) TgN. The highest input and output fluxes occurred in December and the lowest input and output fluxes occurred in May.     

Dynamic phosphorus budget for lake-watershed ecosystems

Lake eutrophication caused by excess phosphorus （P） loading from point sources （PS） and nonpoint sources （NPS） is a persistent and serious ecological problem in China. A phosphorus budget, based on material flow analysis（MFA） and system dynamic （SD）, is proposed and applied for the agriculture-dominated Qionghai Lake watershed located in southwestern China. The MFA-SD approach will not only cover the transporting process of P in the lake-watershed ecosystems, but also can deal with the changes of P budget due to the dynamics of watershed. P inflows include the fertilizer for agricultural croplands, soil losses, domestic sewage discharges, and the atmospheric disposition such as precipitation and dust sinking. Outflows are consisted of hydrologic export, water resources development, fishery and aquatic plants harvesting. The internal P recycling processes are also considered in this paper. From 1988 to 2015, the total P inflows for Lake Qionghai are in a rapid increase from 35.65 to 78.73 t/a, which results in the rising of P concentration in the lake. Among the total P load 2015, agricultural loss and domestic sewage account for 70.60% and 17.27% respectively, directly related to the rapid social-economic development and the swift urbanization. Future management programs designed to reduce P inputs must be put into practices in the coming years to ensure the ecosystem health in the watershed.     

海岸路桥工程的绿色预算模型初探

海岸路桥工程在其建设和营运过程会带来生态影响,但此部分影响难于识别和不易定量估算,导致建设单位在做工程预算时忽略了这部分损失,致使生态损害得不到有效补偿,不利于可持续发展.基于研究和社会需要.本文试图通过构建绿色预算模型缓解这一问题.文中阐述了海岸路桥工程绿色预算模型的主要构成,系统分析了海岸路桥工程绿色预箅模型的主要内容(海岸路桥工程生态影响识别、生态补偿研究和绿色预算),并将这一模型应用于厦门案例中,最终得到此案例的绿色预算结果为2723.2万元.     

Carbon budget of the Canadian forest product sector

Although many factors influencing the forest C cycle are beyond direct human control, decisions made in forestry and the forest product sector (FPS) can either mitigate or aggravate the net C balance of terrestrial ecosystems. The Canadian Budget Model of the Forest Product Sector (CBM-FPS) described here, was designed to work with a national scale model of forest ecosystem dynamics (the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector, CBM-CFS). The CBM-FPS accounts for harvested forest biomass C from the time that it enters the manufacturing process until it is released into the atmosphere. It also accounts for the use and production of energy by the FPS, and emission of CO₂ during FPS processing. The CBM-FPS accounting framework uses the characteristics of different forest product types to estimate changes in the storage of C in forest products; it tracks C from the transportation of the harvested raw material through various processing steps in sawmills or pulp mills, to its final destination (product, pulp, landfill, atmosphere or recycled). Because not all harvested biomass C is released into the atmosphere in the year it is harvested, the model tracks C retained in various short- and long-lived products, and in landfills. Model results are in general agreement with available data from 1920–1989. Average changes in net C stocks in the FPS, estimated as the difference between harvest C input to the FPS and total losses from the forest product sector is estimated to be 23.5 Tg C yr⁻¹ for the 1985–1989 period. The total FPS pool size at the end of this period is estimated to be 837 Tg C, of which only a fraction (32%) is retained in Canada. The total FPS C stock is small compared to that in the forest ecosystems from which they derive (estimated to contain 86 Pg C in 1989). Nevertheless, the changes in these C stocks contribute significantly to a reduction of the total net atmospheric exchange of the total forest sector (ecosystem and product sector) for that period.     

九龙江河口生物地球化学元素通量的初步模拟

按照LOICZ的模拟指南 ,九龙江河口区采用单箱模型模拟其生物地球化学元素的通量。结果表明 ,九龙江河流输入进河口系统的DIP通量为 2 .81× 10 7mol/a ,交换流带入河口区DIP通量为 10 .93× 10 7mol/a ,因此 ,净沉淀量为 8.0 5× 10 7mol/a。九龙江河流输送进河口系统的DIN通量为 73.47× 10 8mol/a ,它远高于DIP的通量。因此 ,此河口区系统内部有 7.6 6× 10 8mol/a的差额才能达到平衡。     

Regulating carbon emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC): U.S. and California case studies

As lifecycle emissions accounting becomes more widely used in policy, it is important to understand how it has been applied. This paper analyses policy-making for two U.S. fuel regulations—the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS)—that were pioneering not only in using life cycle assessment (LCA) in performance-based environmental regulations, but especially for including emissions from indirect land use change (ILUC). The case studies in this paper focus, in particular, on the decision to include ILUC in lifecycle emissions accounting. Tracing the development of these policies shows the key role of environmental policy entrepreneurs in advocating for ILUC emissions accounting during policy formulation. Moreover, it highlights a paradox in the use of science: although ILUC policy proponents were motivated by best available research, they were also politically enabled by scientific uncertainty and lack of understanding. Understanding this political dimension of decision-making is valuable for scholars as well as practitioners facing similar decisions.     

美国加州气候变化政策

引言 大气中温室气体（GHG）浓度不断升高已使气候出现可以察觉的变化。未来将导致全球气候出现进一步变化。气候变化对以下几个方面的影响尤为明显：水资源、农业、敏感的沿海和森林生态系统。反过来,这些影响叉会对加州的经济、公共卫生、农业生产和娱乐业造成严重冲击。[编者按]     

碳交易政策对工业碳生产率的影响及传导机制

以2005~2017年30个省市面板数据为研究样本,采用双重差分、动态效应检验和三重差分等方法,考察了碳交易政策对工业碳生产率的影响效果及异质性,同时利用多重中介效应模型,解析碳交易对工业碳生产率的实现机制.结果表明,碳交易政策显著提升了工业碳生产率,实现了"降碳促经"效果,且该效果保持逐年上升趋势;异质性检验表明,各试点地区对政策的响应程度存在一定差异,北京、天津、上海、湖北工业碳生产率的提升效果较为显著,而广东、重庆未能对政策做出充分响应;机制分析发现,碳交易政策能够有效激励环境治理效应、结构优化效应和技术革新效应,进而影响工业碳生产率提升,其中结构优化效应是响应政策最为充分的机制.本文研究结果可为中国未来碳市场运行提供一定参考.     

The relationship of the extinction coefficient distribution to wind field patterns in southern California

The averaged distribution of the extinction coefficient, including its diurnal variation, in southern California is shown for commonly occurring winter and summer wind field patterns. The wind field patterns were generated by an objectively based method using empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the vector wind, similarity criteria and cluster analysis. For the days assigned to each pattern, averaged extinction coefficient fields were calculated for six diurnal periods. Three main winter and three main summer patterns were identified. Associated with the wind field patterns were distinctly differing extinction coefficient patterns. Transport of visibility reducing aerosols can be inferred by comparing the wind and extinction fields and their diurnal variation. Transport of visibility reducing pollutants from the Los Angeles Basin and San Joaquin Valley into the Mojave Desert and the south-western U.S. was shown to be highly persistent in summer, while only sporadic in winter. The San Joaquin Valley was identified as having a significant potential for additional visibility impacts in the southwest with higher emissions of visibility affecting pollutants associated with the increasing urbanization of the valley. The analysis illustrated a technique for organizing large wind data sets into a reasonable number of patterns. The clear and consistent relationship between the extinction and wind fields demonstrates the usefulness of this technique in air pollution analysis.     

The carbon sequestration potential of tree crop plantations

Carbon (C) conservation and sequestration in many developing countries needs to be accompanied by socio-economic improvements. Tree crop plantations can be a potential path for coupling climate change mitigation and economic development by providing C sequestration and supplying wood and non-wood products to meet domestic and international market requirements at the same time. Financial compensation for such plantations could potentially be covered by the Clean Development Mechanism under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC) Kyoto Protocol, but its suitability has also been suggested for integration into REDD?+?(reducing emissions from deforestation, forest degradation and enhancement of forest C stocks) currently being negotiated under the United Nations FCCC. We assess the aboveground C sequestration potential of four major plantation crops – cocoa (Theobroma cacao), oil palm (Elaeis guineensis), rubber (Hevea brasiliensis), and orange (Citrus sinesis) – cultivated in the tropics. Measurements were conducted in Ghana and allometric equations were applied to estimate biomass. The largest C potential was found in the rubber plantations (214 tC/ha). Cocoa (65 tC/ha) and orange (76 tC/ha) plantations have a much lower C content, and oil palm (45 tC/ha) has the lowest C potential, assuming that the yield is not used as biofuel. There is considerable C sequestration potential in plantations if they are established on land with modest C content such as degraded forest or agricultural land, and not on land with old-growth forest. We also show that simple C assessment methods can give reliable results, which makes it easier for developing countries to partake in REDD?+ or other payment schemes.     

上海市能源消费CO2排放清单与碳流通图

基于上海市能源统计数据,参照IPCC(2006)方法,测算了上海市能源CO2排放清单,并绘制了2007年上海市碳流通图.结果表明,上海市能源相关的CO2排放总量从1995年的1.10亿t增长到2007年的2.01亿t,期间年均增长率为5.0%.其中“交通”对应的CO2排放量增长最为迅速,年均增长率达15.1%;而“热电厂”的CO2排放量增幅逐渐变缓,其原因为近年上海市外来电力比重增大.2007年“热电厂”、“工业与建筑业”、“交通”、“商业”、“居民生活”与“农业”各部分CO2排放分担率分别为35.4%、34.4%、23.8%、4.0%、2.0%、0.4%.由2007年上海市碳流通图可见,15.6%的煤炭直接由终端使用,这不利于能源效率的提高与污染物的减排;成品油存在较多的交叉流通,若能够减少不必要的流通,不但能够缓解成品油的运输,还能够减少其在转运过程中的输配损失.     

碳中和目标下中国省域碳平衡能力与城镇化的关系

厘清碳平衡能力与城镇化的关系对实现碳中和目标和推动新型城镇化发展具有重要的理论价值及实践意义。采用温室气体清单法、碳吸收清查法、碳平衡指标法和多元城镇化测量法分别测算1999—2018年中国省域碳平衡能力与各类城镇化指标,利用空间自然断点分级法和Granger因果检验法分别分析中国省域碳平衡能力与城镇化的时空演变特征及互动关系。主要结论如下：（1）中国碳排放不断增多,碳吸收不断减少,碳平衡能力呈上升、下降、先减后增和先增后减四种趋势,碳排放呈“东多西少”分布,碳吸收与碳平衡能力分别呈“西多东少”和“西强东弱”分布。（2）中国人口、经济、空间、生态城镇化和城镇化综合指标不断提升,其中空间城镇化大致呈“西高东低”分布,其余则呈“东高西低”分布。（3）除空间城镇化外,中国整体碳平衡能力与各类城镇化的关系均为反馈型,而各省域增长保护型数量最多,中立型数量最少。