A biogenic hydrocarbon emission inventory for the U.S.A. using a simple forest canopy model

A biogenic hydrocarbon emission inventory system, developed for acid deposition and regional oxidant modeling, is described, and results for a U.S. emission inventory are presented. For deciduous and coniferous forests, scaling relationships are used to account for canopy effects upon solar radiation temperature, humidity and wind speed as a function of height through the canopy. Leaf temperature is calculated iteratively from a leaf energy balance as a function of height through the canopy. The predicted light and temperature levels are used with mean emprical emission rate factors and laboratory emission algorithms to predict hydrocarbon emission rates. For application to a U.S. inventory, diurnal emission fluxes of isoprene, α-pinene, other monoterpenes adn otehr hydrocarbons are predicted for eight land cover classes by state climatic division by month. The total U.S. emissions range from 22 to 50 Tg yr⁻¹ depending upon the formulation of different emission rate factors. In the case where the forest canopy model is not used, the isoprene emissions increase by 50% and terpene emissions increase by 6%. In case study analyses, the predicted leaf temperatures were within 1–2°C of observed for a deciduous forest, and predicted emissions were within a factor of two of observations. Further evaluation of the inventory using field measurements is required to determine the overall accuracy of the emission estimates.     

湖南省不同土地利用方式的碳排放效应及时空格局分析

土地利用变化是造成碳排放量增长的主要原因.运用相关统计数据,测算并分析了湖南省不同土地利用方式的碳排放效应及时空差异.结果表明,2003-2009年,湖南省净碳排放量呈增加趋势,年均增加478.15万t,而单位GDP碳排放强度却呈下降趋势,且与人均GDP呈现出倒U型曲线关系,曲线拐点在人均GDP达到0.97～1.00万元·人-1附近.同期,湖南省建设用地和耕地成为主要的碳源,其中,建设用地碳排放量年均增加约483.19万t,对净碳排放量的年均贡献率超过84％;林地为主要碳汇,其碳汇量年均可达769.67万t.2009年,湖南省净碳排放量存在着明显的区域差异,总体上呈现从东到西、从北到南逐渐减小的趋势,其中,娄底、岳阳、湘潭与郴州4市属于高排放-低效率(HE-LE)类型;永州、怀化、吉首与张家界4市属于低排放-高效率(LE-HE)类型;邵阳、长沙、常德、株洲、衡阳与益阳6市属于中排放-中效率(ME-ME)类型.     

Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics: Case Studies in the Former Soviet Union,the Conterminous United States,Mexico and Brazil

This research assessed land-use impacts on C flux at a national level in four countries: former Soviet Union, United States, Mexico and Brazil, including biotic processes in terrestrial ecosystems (closed forests, woodlands, and croplands), harvest of trees for wood and paper products, and direct C emission from fires. The terrestrial ecosystems of the four countries contain approximately 40% of the world's terrestrial biosphere C pool, with the FSU alone having 27% of the global total. Average phytomass C densities decreased from south to north while average soil C densities in all three vegetation types generally increased from south to north. The C flux from land cover conversion was divided into a biotic component and a land-use component. We estimate that the total net biotic flux (Tg/yr) was positive (= uptake) in the FSU (631) and the U.S. (332), but negative in Mexico (−37) and Brazil (−16). In contrast, total flux from land use was negative (= emissions) in all four countries (TgC/yr): FSU −343; U.S. −243; Mexico −35; and Brazil −235. The total net effect of the biotic and land-use factors was a C sink in the FSU and the U.S. and a C source in both Brazil and Mexico. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

森林绿色核算中不同林地林木估价方法的比较

在对国内外森林绿色核算中林地林木估价方法综述的基础上指出:林地林木估价起源于森林评价学,已有200多年的历史,且估价方法较多,概括起来主要包括比较方式估价方法、成本方式估价方法、收益方式估价方法和收益比较折衷方式估价方法。幼、中龄林一般采用成本方式估价方法;近熟林、成熟林和过熟林采用收益方式估价方法。联合国等在综合环境经济核算体系中推荐的林地林木估价方法主要为立木价值法、消费价值法和净现值法,虽然与森林评价学上的名称不一致,但属于收益方式的评价方法。文章还分别采用成本法和净现值法对海南省、大兴安岭的林地林木进行了估价,通过估价结果的比较分析认为,成本法可作为林木估价的最低值,净现值法的估价高于成本法的估价,净现值法估价是成本价法估价的1.03～1.14倍。另外,虽然联合国等推荐的林地林木估价首选方法为净现值法,但实际计算需要大量的数据,且无论是立木价值法,还是消费价值法和净现值法估价,其结果差异很大。德国、澳大利亚和法国的研究表明,3种方法的估价结果相差2倍多。欧盟也因此推荐立木价值法估价。文章最后认为,林地林木估价的方法目前还没有达成一致,且不同的估价方法估算的结果也存在明显的差异。     

重庆缙云山4种典型植被覆盖下汞的释放通量及影响因素

为了揭示不同植被覆盖下土壤/大气界面释汞通量及其交换特征,在缙云山国家级自然保护区内选择4种典型植被覆盖类型(常绿阔叶林、楠竹林、灌木林以及草地)为研究对象,连续同步监测不同植被覆盖下土/气界面汞释放通量,同时考察各环境因子对土壤释汞的影响.结果表明,缙云山在4种不同植被覆盖下土壤汞释放通量具有明显的差异,总体表现为楠竹林[17.77 ng·(m~2·h)~(-1)]草地[17.58 ng·(m~2·h)~(-1)]灌木林[16.87 ng·(m~2·h)~(-1)]常绿阔叶林[14.32 ng·(m~2·h)~(-1)];不同植被覆盖下土壤释汞通量在季节变化上呈现相似的规律性,但不同植被覆盖类型之间也存在明显差异,主要体现在暖季汞释放通量高于冷季;缙云山地区不同林植被覆盖下土壤释汞通量存在明显的日变化;气象因素光照强度、气温、土温和相对湿度,对土/气界面汞释放通量影响也不相同,气温为常绿阔叶林,灌木林与楠竹林的主要影响因子,光照强度为草地的主要影响因子.     

Potential and Cost of Carbon Sequestration in the Tanzanian Forest Sector

The forest sector in Tanzania offers ample opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and sequester carbon (C) in terrestrial ecosystems. More than 90% of the country's demand for primary energy is obtained from biomass mostly procured unsustainably from natural forests. This study examines the potential to sequester C through expansion of forest plantations aimed at reducing the dependence on natural forest for wood fuel production, as well as increase the country's output of industrial wood from plantations. These were compared ton conservationoptions in the tropical and miombo ecosystems. Three sequestrationoptions were analyzed, involving the establishment of short rotation and long rotation plantations on about 1.7 × 10⁶ hectares. The short rotation community forestry option has a potential to sequester an equilibrium amount of 197.4 × 10⁶ Mg C by 2024 at a net benefit of 79.5 × 10⁶, while yielding a NPV of 0.46 Mg^-1 C. The long rotation options for softwood and hardwood plantations will reach an equilibrium sequestration of 5.6 and 11.8 × 10⁶ Mg C at a negative NPV of 0.60 Mg^-1 C and 0.32 Mg^-1 C. The three options provide cost competitive opportunities for sequestering about 7.5 × 10⁶ Mg C yr^-1 while providing desired forest products and easing the pressure on the natural forests in Tanzania. The endowment costs of the sequestration options were all found to be cheaper than the emission avoidance cost for conservation options which had an average cost of 1.27 Mg^-1 C, rising to 7.5 Mg^-1 C under some assumptions on vulnerability to encroachment. The estimates shown here may represent the upper bound, because the actual potential will be influenced by market prices for inputs and forest products, land use policy constraints and the structure of global C transactions.     

Migrants,land markets and carbon emissions in Jambi,Indonesia: Land tenure change and the prospect of emission reduction

Policies designed to reduce land-based carbon emissions require a good understanding of the complex connections between state-sanctioned concessions, forest conversion, informal land markets and migrants. Our case study in the peat forests of the Tanjung Jabung Barat (TanJaBar) regency of Jambi, Indonesia aimed to explore relations between four key stakeholder groups: the state, local communities, migrants, and state-sanctioned concessions. We hypothesized that current land use patterns are shaped by insecurity in formal forest tenure alongside informal land tenure arrangements with migrants. In analyzing the six two-way relationships between the four stakeholder groups, we found that interactions between the stakeholders have changed local norms and practice, causing land conflicts and contested claims that need to be explicitly addressed in efforts to reduce carbon emissions in TanJaBar. Relational concepts of land rights between migrants and local community leaders are informed by social identity, expectations of investment opportunities, insecure customary forest tenure and competing land use policies. Migrants act as intermediaries in shaping the land tenure system and shift the balance of power between local communities, the state, and business concessions. We conclude that effective and equitable implementation of national Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation+ (REDD+) programs will need to recognize underlying land ownership dynamics, power struggles and strategic positioning among stakeholders across scales. Obtaining free and prior informed consent (FPIC) from all relevant stakeholders is a major challenge given this complexity. Low emission development strategies will require recognition of a reality beyond large-scale concessions and traditional local communities.     

Benefits of tropical forest management under the new climate change agreement—a case study in Cambodia

Promoting sustainable forest management as part of the reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation in developing countries (REDD)-plus mechanism in the Copenhagen Accord of December 2009 implies that tropical forests will no longer be ignored in the new climate change agreement. As new financial incentives are pledged, costs and revenues on a 1-ha tract of tropical forestland being managed or cleared for other land use options need to be assessed so that appropriate compensation measures can be proposed. Cambodia's highly stocked evergreen forest, which has experienced rapid degradation and deforestation, will be the first priority forest to be managed if financial incentives through a carbon payment scheme are available. By analyzing forest inventory data, we assessed the revenues and costs for managing a hypothetical 1 ha of forestland against six land use options: business-as-usual timber harvesting (BAU-timber), forest management under the REDD-plus mechanism, forest-to-teak plantation, forest-to-acacia plantation, forest-to-rubber plantation, and forest-to-oil palm plantation. We determined annual equivalent values for each option, and the BAU-timber and REDD-plus management options were the highest, with both options influenced by logging costs and timber price. Financial incentives should be provided at a level that would allow continuation of sustainable logging and be attractive to REDD-plus project developers.     

Spatial and temporal land use and carbon stock changes in Uganda: implications for a future REDD strategy

Using a map overlay procedure in a Geographical Information System environment, we quantify and map major land use and land cover (LULC) change patterns in Uganda period 1990–2005 and determine whether the transitions were random or systematic. The analysis reveals that the most dominant systematic land use change processes were deforestation (woodland to subsistence farmland—3.32%); forest degradation (woodland to bushland (4.01%) and grassland (4.08%) and bush/grassland conversion to cropland (5.5%) all resulting in a net reduction in forests (6.1%). Applying an inductive approach based on logistic regression and trend analyses of observed changes we analyzed key drivers of LULC change. Significant predictors of forest land use change included protection status, market access, poverty, slope, soil quality and presence/absence of a stream network. Market access, poverty and population all decreased the log odds of retaining forests. In addition, poverty also increased the likelihood of degradation. An increase in slope decreased the likelihood of deforestation. Using the stock change and gain/loss approaches we estimated the change in forest carbon stocks and emissions from deforestation and forest degradation. Results indicate a negligible increase in forest carbon stocks (3,260 t C yr-1) in the period 1990–2005 when compared to the emissions due to deforestation and forest degradation (2.67 million t C yr-1). In light of the dominant forest land use change patterns, the drivers and change in carbon stocks, we discuss options which could be pursued to implement a future national REDD plus strategy which considers livelihood, biodiversity and climate change mitigation objectives.     

Carbon values,reforestation, and `perverse' incentives under the Kyoto protocol: An empirical analysis

Economic incentives for sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) in forests may be an effective way to meet greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol (KP). But concerns have been raised that the KP may create unintended incentives to excessively harvest existing forests if regenerated forests qualify for carbon (C) credits under the reforestation provision of Article 3.3. This paper combines an analytical model of the optimal forest rotation with both timber and C as priced outputs with data on timber and C growth and yield to different forest settings in the U.S. C prices of $50 per megagram (Mg) – the highest price evaluated– can considerably lengthen forest rotations (40 years or more), raise forest land values (as much as $1,900 per hectare), and sequester more C in the long run (up to 60 percent per acre), relative to the base case of no C compensation. However, if C payments are made for the regenerated stand only, in some situations, it is optimal to immediately harvest an otherwise premature stand at C prices as low as $20/Mg. The strength of perverse incentives to accelerate harvesting of existing forest varies by forest type, region, C price level, and institutional factors relevant to the compensation system. If C compensation were extended to existing stands, as may be possible under Article 3.4 of the KP, the perverse incentives for prematurely harvesting existing stands would not exist.     

Plant trees for the planet: the potential of forests for climate change mitigation and the major drivers of national forest area

Forests are one of the most cost-effective ways to sequester carbon today. Here, I estimate the world’s land share under forests required to prevent dangerous climate change. For this, I combine newest longitudinal data of FLUXNET on forests’ net ecosystem exchange of carbon (NEE) from 78 forest sites (N?=?607) with countries’ mean temperature and forest area. This straightforward approach indicates that the world’s forests sequester 8.3 GtCO₂year^?1. For the 2 °C climate target, the current forest land share has to be doubled to 60.0% to sequester an additional 7.8 GtCO₂year^?1, which demands less red meat consumption. This afforestation/reforestation (AR) challenge is achievable, as the estimated global biophysical potential of AR is 8.0 GtCO₂year^?1 safeguarding food supply for 10 billion people. Climate-responsible countries have the highest AR potential. For effective climate policies, knowledge on the major drivers of forest area is crucial. Enhancing information here, I analyze forest land share data of 98 countries from 1990 to 2015 applying causal inference (N?=?2494). The results highlight that population growth, industrialization, and increasing temperature reduce forest land share, while more protected forest and economic growth generally increase it. In all, this study confirms the potential of AR for climate change mitigation with a straightforward approach based on the direct measurement of NEE. This might provide a more valid picture given the shortcomings of indirect carbon stock-based inventories. The analysis identifies future regional hotspots for the AR potential and informs the need for fast and forceful action to prevent dangerous climate change.

     

Potential effects of climate change and rising CO2 on ecosystem processes in northeastern U.S. forests

Forest ecosystems represent the dominant form of land cover in the northeastern United States and are heavily relied upon by the region’s residents as a source of fuel, fiber, structural materials, clean water, economic vitality, and recreational opportunities. Although predicted changes in climate have important implications for a number of ecosystem processes, our present understanding of their long-term effects is poor. In this study, we used the PnET-CN model of forest carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and water cycling to evaluate the effects of predicted changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) on forest growth, C exchange, water runoff, and nitrate ( $ {\text{NO}}^{ - }_{3} $ ) leaching at five forest research sites across the northeastern U.S. We used four sets of statistically downscaled climate predictions from two general circulation models (the Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 and the Parallel Climate Model) and two scenarios of future CO₂ concentrations. A series of model experiments was conducted to examine the effects of future temperature, precipitation, CO₂, and various assumptions regarding the physiological response of forests to these changes. Results indicate a wide range of predicted future growth rates. Increased growth was predicted across deciduous sites under most future conditions, while growth declines were predicted for spruce forests under the warmest scenarios and in some deciduous forests when CO₂ fertilization effects were absent. Both climate and rising CO₂ contributed to predicted changes, but their relative importance shifted from CO₂-dominated to climate-dominated from the first to second half of the twenty-first century. Predicted runoff ranged from no change to a slight decrease, depending on future precipitation and assumptions about stomatal response to CO₂. Nitrate leaching exhibited variable responses, but was highest under conditions that imposed plant stress with no physiological effects of CO₂. Although there are considerable uncertainties surrounding predicted responses to climate change, these results provide a range of possible outcomes and highlight interactions among processes that are likely to be important. Such information can be useful to scientists and land managers as they plan on means of examining and responding to the effects of climate change.     

Bioenergy and the forest industry in Finland after the adoption of the Kyoto protocol

In Finland the percentage of biomass fuels of total primary energy supply is relatively high, close to 17%. The share of biomass in the total electricity generation is as much as 10%. This high share in Finland is mainly due to the cogeneration of electricity and heat within forest industry using biomass-based by-products and wastes as fuels. Forest industry is also a large user of fossil-based energy. About 28% of total primary energy consumption in Finland takes place in forest industry, causing about 16% of the total fossil carbon dioxide emissions.The Kyoto protocol limits the fossil CO₂ and other greenhouse gas emissions and provides some incentives to the Finnish forest sector. There are trade-offs among the raw-material, energy and carbon sink uses of the forests. Fossil emissions can be reduced e.g. by using more wood and producing chemical pulp instead of mechanical one. According to the calculation rules of the Kyoto protocol Finnish forests in 2008–2012 are estimated to form a carbon source of 0.36 Tg C a⁻¹ due to land use changes. Factually the forest biomass will still be a net carbon sink between 3.5 and 8.8 Tg C a⁻¹. Because the carbon sinks of existing forests are not counted in the protocol, there is an incentive to increase wood use in those and to decrease the real net carbon sink. Also the criteria for sustainable forestry could still simultaneously be met.     

Forest Management for Mitigation of CO2 Emissions: How Much Mitigation and Who Gets the Credits?

Forestry projects can mitigate the net flux of carbon (C) to the atmosphere in four ways: (1) C is stored in forest biomass—trees, litter and soil, (2) C is stored in durable wood products, (3) biomass fuels displace consumption of fossil fuels, and (4) wood products often require less fossil-fuel energy for their production and use than do alternate products that provide the same service. We use a mathematical model of C stocks and flows (GORCAM) to illustrate the inter-relationships among these impacts on the C cycle and the changing C balance over time. The model suggests that sustainable management for the harvest of forest products will yield more net C offset than will forest protection when forest productivity is high, forest products are produced and used efficiently, and longer time periods are considered. Yet it is very difficult to attribute all of the C offsets to the forestry projects. It is, at least in concept, straightforward to measure, verify, and attribute the C stored in the forests and in wood products. It is more challenging to measure the amount of fossil fuel saved directly because of the use of biomass fuels and to give proper attribution to a mitigation project. The amount of fossil fuel saved indirectly because biomass provides materials and services that are used in place of other materials and services may be very difficult to estimate and impossible to allocate to any project. Nonetheless, over the long run, these two aspects of fossil fuel saved may be the largest impacts of forestry projects on the global C cycle.     

基于序列模式的土地利用变化分析——以广西壮族自治区为例

土地利用变化是一个长期的过程,同时具有一定的复杂性。传统的转移矩阵方法只能在两期土地利用数据之间相互比较而不能总结长期整体的变化规律,频繁项集不能导出变化序列。针对这些方法的不足,本文提出了基于序列模式的土地利用变化序列分析模型。首先给出土地序列数据库的定义,然后根据土地序列数据实际特点和垂直格式的序列模式SPADE算法,给出土地变化序列模式的计算过程和方法。在以中国广西为实例的研究中,计算了1970s—2015年共7期22种二级土地利用类型的变化序列。研究区土地利用变化主要发生在林地之间,部分林地转换为厂矿、采石场、交通道路等建设用地类型;城镇用地主要由旱地和水田转换而来;在研究期内没有任何一个土地单元转化成水田。     

Carbon emissions and management scenarios for consumer-owned utilities

An important subset of the utility sector has been scarcely explored for its ability to reduce carbon dioxide emissions: consumer-owned electric utilities significantly contribute to U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, but are often excluded from energy efficiency and renewable energy policies. They sell a quarter of the nation's electricity, yet the carbon impact of these sales is not well understood, due to their small size, unique ownership models, and high percentage of purchased power for distribution. This paper situates consumer-owned utilities in the context of emerging U.S. climate policy, quantifying for the first time the state-by-state carbon impact of electricity sales by consumer-owned utilities. We estimate that total retail sales by consumer-owned utilities account for roughly 568 million metric tons of CO₂ annually, making this sector the 7th largest CO₂ emitter globally, and examine state-level carbon intensities of the sector in light of the current policy environment and the share of COU distribution in the states. Based on efficiency and fuel mix pathways under conceivable regulations, carbon scenarios for 2030 are developed.     

The implementation of Natura 2000 in forests: A trans- and interdisciplinary assessment of challenges and choices

Natura 2000 is the core of the EU's biodiversity conservation policy. 50% of the overall protected area under Natura 2000 is forest. Yet, comparatively little is known about the implementation of the policy in forests. Building on a rich set of social and natural science data, and an inter- and transdisciplinary discussion process involving scientists from different disciplines as well as EU, national and local stakeholders, this paper identifies five important challenges related to the implementation of Natura 2000 in forests: (1) the balancing of biodiversity conservation and timber production, (2) the integration of conservation (science) and local stakeholders’ demands, (3) climate change, (4) lacking and less effective funding, and (5) conflicts related to other sectoral policies. Subsequently, five possible pathways to tackle these challenges are proposed: (1) a learning approach through better communication and transparency, (2) a pathway emphasizing the role of conservation science in developing management strategies and responding to climate change, (3) an approach of better integrating Europe's citizens in the design and implementation of the policy, (4) an approach highlighting the necessity of an effective funding strategy, and (5) the vision to work towards an integrated European land use and conservation policy. In conclusion, we emphasize, on one hand, the distinct character of the five pathways but, on the other hand, underline that probably all of them need to be followed in order to make the implementation of Natura 2000 in Europe's forests a success story.     

A generalised approach of accounting for biospheric carbon stock changes under the Kyoto Protocol

The Kyoto Protocol aims to reduce net emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere by various measures including through management of the biosphere. However, the wording that has been adopted may be difficult and costly to implement, and may ultimately make it impossible to cost-effectively include biosphere management to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. An alternative scheme is proposed here, especially for the second and subsequent commitment periods, to more effectively deal with the anthropogenic component of carbon stock changes in the biosphere. It would categorise the terrestrial biosphere into different land-use types, with each one having a characteristic average carbon density determined by land-use and environmental factors. Each transition from one land-use type to another, or a change in average carbon density within a specified type due to changed management would be defined as anthropogenic and credited or debited to the responsible nation. To calculate annual credits and/or debits, the change in average carbon stocks must be divided by a time constant which would either be a characteristic of each possible land-use conversion, or applicable to the sum of changes to a nation's biospheric carbon stocks. We believe that this scheme would be simpler and less expensive to implement than one based on the measurement of actual carbon changes from all specified areas of land. It would also avoid undue credits or debits, because they would only accrue as a result of identified anthropogenic components of biospheric carbon changes whereas carbon fluxes that are due to natural variation would not be credited or debited.     

A ton is not always a ton: A road-test of landfill,manure, and afforestation/reforestation offset protocols in the U.S. carbon market

The outcome of recent international climate negotiations suggests we are headed toward a more fragmented carbon market, with multiple emission trading and offset programs operating in parallel. To effectively harmonize and link across programs, it will be important to ensure that across offset programs and protocols that a “ton is a ton”. In this article, we consider how sample offsets projects in the U.S. carbon market are treated across protocols from five programs: the Clean Development Mechanism, Climate Action Reserve, Chicago Climate Exchange, Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, and the U.S. EPA's former program, Climate Leaders. We find that differences among protocols for landfill methane, manure management, and afforestation/reforestation project types in accounting boundary definitions, baseline setting methods, measurement rules, emission factors, and discounts lead to differences in offsets credited that are often significant (e.g. greater than 50%). We suggest opportunities for modification and harmonization of protocols that can improve offset quality and credibility and enhance prospects for future linking of trading units and systems.     

Reducing emissions from land use in Indonesia: motivation,policy instruments and expected funding streams

Land-based emissions of carbon dioxide derive from the interface of forest and agriculture. Emission estimates require harmonization across forest and non-forest data sources. Furthermore, emission reduction requires understanding of the linked causes and policy levers between agriculture and forestry. The institutional forestry traditions dominated the emergence of the discourse on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) while more holistic perspectives on land-based emissions, including agriculture, found a home in international recognition for Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs). We tested the hypothesis that, at least for Indonesia, the NAMA framework provides opportunities to resolve issues that REDD+ alone cannot address. We reviewed progress on five major challenges identified in 2007 by the Indonesian Forest Climate Alliance: 1) scope and ‘forest’ definition; 2) ownership and tenurial rights; 3) multiplicity and interconnectedness of drivers; 4) peatland issues across forest and non-forest land categories; and 5) fairness and efficiency of benefit-distribution mechanisms across conservation, degradation and restoration phases of tree-cover transition. Results indicate that the two policy instruments developed in parallel with competition rather than synergy. Three of the REDD+ challenges can be resolved by treating REDD+ as a subset of the NAMA and national emission reduction plans for Indonesia. We conclude that two issues, rights and benefit distribution, remain a major challenge, and require progress on a motivational pyramid of policy and polycentric governance. National interest in retaining global palm oil exports gained priority over expectations of REDD forest rents. Genuine concerns over climate change motivate a small but influential part of the ongoing debate.