Using Microsimulation to Maximise Scarce Survey Data: Applications for Catchment Scale Modelling and Policy Analysis

Microsimulation can be used to extend the use of scarce survey resources by creating simulated populations whose characteristics are close to those of the real population. The technique involves merging detailed survey observations with variables from more extensive data sets in order to create a simulated population. We illustrate how microsimulated data enable analysis of the economic and environmental impact of different policies on a catchment for which detailed farm level data was unavailable. Use of microsimulation for agri-environmental policy analysis is applicable to diverse problems from simulation of nitrogen trading to modelling of agent response to policy shocks. Scale flexibility is easily implemented since data can be aggregated or disaggregated to the preferred scale. Simulated catchment data allows better understanding of the effects of policies on different types of farm and should be extremely valuable to organisations that want to minimise the economic impact of environmental policies.     

Using the Sediment Quality Triad to characterize baseline conditions in the Anacostia River, Washington, DC, USA

The Sediment Quality Triad (SQT) consists of complementary measures of sediment chemistry, benthic community structure, and sediment toxicity. We applied the SQT at 20 stations in the tidal portion of the Anacostia River from Bladensburg, MD to Washington, DC to establish a baseline of conditions to evaluate the effects of management actions. Sediment toxicity was assessed using 10-day survival and growth tests with the freshwater amphipod, Hyalella azteca and the midge, Chironomus dilutus. Triplicate grabs were taken at each station for benthic community analysis and the Benthic Index of Biotic Integrity (B-IBI) was used to interpret the data. Only one station, #92, exhibited toxicity related to sediment contamination. Sediments from this station significantly inhibited growth of both test species, had the highest concentrations of contaminants, and had a degraded benthic community, indicated by a B-IBI of less than 3. Additional sediment from this station was tested and sediment toxicity identification evaluation (TIE) procedures tentatively characterized organic compounds as the cause of toxicity. Overall, forty percent of the stations were classified as degraded by the B-IBI. However, qualitative and quantitative comparisons with sediment quality benchmarks indicated no clear relationship between benthic community health and contaminant concentrations. This study provides a baseline for assessing the effectiveness of management actions in the Anacostia River.     

Application of CFD Methods for Modelling in Air Pollution Problems: Possibilities and Gaps

Different urban air pollution problems deal with complex structure of air flows and turbulence. For such problems the Computer Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods become widely used. However, this approach despite a number of advantages has some problems. Experience of use of CFD tools for development of models and suggestions of their applications for a local scale air pollution over a complex terrain and stable stratification are discussed in this paper, including: Topography and complex geometry: choose of the co-ordinate system and computer grid; Turbulence closure for air pollution modelling: modified k- model for stable stratified ABL; Boundary conditions for vertical profiles of velocity for stable-stratified atmosphere; Effects of the radiation and thermal budget of inclined surfaces to dispersion of pollutants; Artificial sources of air dynamics and circulation.Some examples of CFD applications for air pollution modelling for a flat terrain, mountainous area, mining open cast and indoor ventilation are discussed. Modified k- model for stably-stratified ABL is suggested. Due to the isotropic character of the k- model a combination of it in vertical with the sub-grid turbulence closure in horizontal can be more suitable for ABL. An effective scheme of boundary conditions for velocity profiles, based on the developed similarity theory for stable-stratified ABL, is suggested. Alongside with the common studies of atmospheric dispersion, the CFD methods have also demonstrated a good potential for studying anthropogenic and artificial-ventilation sources of air dynamic and circulation in local-scale processes of air pollution.     

Three-dimensional Modelling of Radionuclides Dispersion in a Marine Environment with Application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi Case

In this work, we present the implementation, verification and validation of a three-dimensional model able to reproduce the propagation of \(^{137}C_{s}\) radionuclide in coastal waters and its interaction with suspended sediments, in the framework of the open-source TELEMAC-MASCARET modelling system. The validation of the model was realized by comparing numerical results with field measurements of radionuclides concentration in the Japan Sea nearby the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (NPP). The developed model uses as external forcing the data available immediately after or during the accident, as, e.g. weather conditions (wind, pressure, temperature) and/or the harmonic components of tides. In contrast with previous models implemented in the study area, the model presented here is limited to the coastal area near Fukushima and refined in the coastal area close to the NPP. Numerical results show that the model is able to reproduce the propagation and diffusion of the released \(^{137}C_{s}\) in the vicinity of the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP. Consequently, we show that the numerical results obtained with a small-scale model with a simple forcing are consistent, at a coastal scale, with models which employed a general circulation model based on data assimilation techniques or variation method for hydrodynamics. Therefore, this model could be employed in an emergency situation, when the dissolved radioactivity is considered.

     

环境中的微塑料:赋存、检测及其危害

近年来,由个人护理品及废旧塑料直接或间接产生的微塑料不断地在各种环境介质中被检出,且微塑料会对生态系统产生各种危害,因此对微塑料的研究受到越来越广泛的关注。阐述了微塑料在水体、沉积物、沙滩和生物体中的赋存情况,介绍了微塑料的采集与分离方法,以及定性与定量分析方法。指出微塑料对环境及生物体产生的危害,提出现阶段研究存在的主要问题,并对今后的研究方向进行了展望。     

Dynamic Cost-Effective Reduction Strategies for Acidification in Europe: An Application to Ireland and the United Kingdom

This paper describes the application of an optimisation model for calculating cost-effective abatement strategies for the reduction of acidification in Europe while taking into account the dynamic character of soil acidification in a number of countries. Environmental constraints are defined in terms of soil quality indicators, e.g., pH, base saturation or the aluminium ion concentration in the soil solution within an optimisation model for transboundary air pollution.We present a case study for Ireland and the United Kingdom. Our results indicate that reduction of sulphur dioxide emission is more cost-effective than that of nitrogen oxides or ammonia. The reduction percentages for sulphur dioxide are highest, for two reasons: (i) marginal sulphur dioxide reduction costs are relatively low compared to marginal reduction costs of nitrogen oxides and ammonia and (ii) sulphur dioxide reduction is more effective in reducing acidification in physical terms than nitrogen oxides or ammonia abatement. Our dynamic analysis shows that a (fast) improvement of soil quality requires high emission reduction levels. These reduction levels are often higher than reduction levels that are typically deduced from the static critical loads approach. Once soil quality targets are reached, in our model, less stringent emission reductions are required to maintain the soil quality at a constant and good target level. Static critical load approaches that ignore dynamic aspects therefore may underestimate the emission reductions needed to achieve predefined soil quality targets.     

Eutrophication Prediction Using a Markov Chain Model: Application to Lakes in the Yangtze River Basin,China

Lake eutrophication is harmful and difficult to predict due to its complex evolution. As an alternative to existing mechanistic models, a Markov chain model was developed to predict the development of lake eutrophication based on an 11-year dataset in 41 lakes of the Yangtze River Basin. This model was validated using a real-time update strategy and was demonstrated to be reliable. Based on the dataset, the lake eutrophication dynamics from 2000 to 2010 were analyzed. Lakes with different trophic states from 2011 to 2050 and their responses to different water management practices were simulated based on the developed model. The simulation results show that lake eutrophication would worsen from 2011 to 2040; however, eutrophication could be significantly alleviated by changing 100 km² of hypereutrophic lakes into eutrophic lakes per year from 2010 to 2020. The nutrient conditions in most of the lakes in the Yangtze River Basin show that phosphorus control would be more efficient than nitrogen control in eutrophication management practices. This case study demonstrates the utility of Markov chain models in using prior information to predict the long-term evolution of lake eutrophication at large spatial scales. The Markov chain technique can be easily adapted to predict evolutionary processes in other disciplines.     

Using slides to test for changes in crown defoliation assessment methods part II: Application of the image analysis system CROCO

We tested whether the semi-automatic program CROCO can replace visual assessments of slides to detect changes in defoliation assessment methods. We randomly selected a series of slides of 24 Norway spruce trees with 220 field assessments made between 1986 and 1995. The slides had been randomly arranged and assessed by three experts without knowledge of the tree number or the year when the slide was taken. Defoliation scores were computed with CROCO. Each tree had thus three different defoliation scores, field assessments, photo assessments and CROCO scores.CROCO scores were less correlated with the field assessments (Spearmans rank correlation: 0.67) than were the slide assessments with the field assessments (0.79–0.83). However, CROCO was not biased against the field scores, while slide assessments systematically underestimated defoliation.In a multi-variate mixed effect model none of the variables tree overlap, tree visibility and light conditions was significant in explaining differences between slide assessors and CROCO scores. The same model applied for the differences from the field scores yielded significant effects for poor light conditions (CROCO and all assessors), for crown overlap (CROCO and one assessor) and for visibility (one assessor). We conclude, therefore, that CROCO can be used to detect past and future changes in assessment methods without bias if poor quality photographs are avoided.     

Sampling effort needed to estimate condition and species richness in the Ohio river, USA

The level of sampling effort required to characterize fish assemblage condition in a river for the purposes of bioassessment may be estimated via different approaches. However, the goal with any approach is to determine the minimum level of effort necessary to reach some specific level of confidence in the assessment. In the Ohio River, condition is estimated and reported primarily at the level of pools defined by lock and dam structures. The goal of this study was to determine the minimum level of sampling effort required to adequately characterize pools in the Ohio River for the purpose of bioassessment. We followed two approaches to estimating required sampling effort using fish assemblage data from a long-term intensive survey across a number of Ohio River pools. First, we estimated the number of samples beyond which variation in the multimetric Ohio River Fish Index (ORFIn) leveled off. Then, we determined the number of samples necessary to collect approximately 90% of the fish species observed across all samples collected within the pool. For both approaches, approximately 15 samples were adequate to reduce variation in IBI scores to acceptable levels and to capture 90% of observed species in a pool. The results of this evaluation provide a basis not only for the Ohio River Valley Water Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) but also states and other basin commissions to develop sampling designs for bioassessment that ensure adequate sampling of all assessment units.     

Using Archive Data to Investigate Trends in the Sources and Composition of Urban PM10 Particulate Matter: Application to Edinburgh (U.K.) Between 1992 and 1997

By extending the method of Stedman (1998), daily dataof atmospheric concentrations of gravimetricPM₁₀, black smoke (BS) and sulphate aerosol (SA)from national networks were analysed to determine thetrends in time of the contribution of different sources of particulate matter to total PM₁₀ measured in central Edinburgh. Since BS is an indicator of combustion-related primary sources of particulate matter, the quantity obtained by subtraction of daily BS from daily PM₁₀ is indicative of the contribution to total PM₁₀ from other primary sources and from secondary aerosol. This PM₁₀-BS statistic was regressed on SA, since SA is an indicator of variation in secondary aerosol source. For Edinburgh, SA is a considerably better indicator of PM₁₀-BS during summer than winter (reflecting the much greater photochemical generation of secondary aerosol in summer) and there is evidence that the contribution of other secondary aerosol (presumably nitrate aerosol) has increased relative to SA between 1992 and 1997. The concentration of non-combustion primary particulate material (marine aerosol, suspended dust) to PM₁₀ in Edinburgh has not changed over this period but is about twice that calculated as the U.K. national average. The increasing input to PM₁₀ from secondary aerosol sources at regional rather than urban scale has important implications for ensuring local air quality compliance. The method should have general applicability to other locations.     

An Alternative Process Model of Preferential Contaminant Travel Times in the Unsaturated Zone: Application to Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain, Nevada

Simulating contaminant transport in unsaturated zones with sparse hydraulic property information is a difficult, yet common, problem. When contaminant transport may occur via preferential flow, simple modeling approaches can provide predictions of interest, such as the first arrival of contaminant, with minimal site characterization. The conceptual model for unsaturated zone flow at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain, Nevada National Security Site, establishes the possibility of preferential flow through lithologies between potential radionuclide sources and the saturated zone. After identifying preferential flow as a possible contaminant transport process, we apply a simple model to estimate first arrival times for conservatively transported radionuclides to reach the saturated zone. Simulated preferential flow travel times at Rainier Mesa are tens to hundreds of years for non-ponded water sources and 1 to 2 months for continuously ponded water sources; first arrival times are approximately twice as long at Shoshone Mountain. These first arrival time results should then be viewed as a worst-case scenario but not necessarily as a timescale for a groundwater-contamination hazard, because concentrations may be very low. The alternative approach demonstrated here for estimating travel times can be useful in situations where predictions are needed by managers for the fastest arrival of contaminants, yet budgetary or time constraints preclude more rigorous analysis, and when additional model estimates are needed for comparison (i.e., model abstraction).     

Relation of fish and shellfish distributions to habitat and water quality in the Mobile Bay estuary, USA

The Mobile Bay estuary in the northern Gulf of Mexico provides a rich habitat for many fish and shellfish, including those identified as economically and ecologically important. The National Estuary Program in Mobile Bay has focused on restoration of degraded estuarine habitat on which these species depend. To support this effort, we used statistical techniques of ordination, cluster analysis, and discriminant analysis to relate distributions of individual fish and shellfish species and species assemblages to two dozen water quality and habitat variables in a geo-referenced database. Species appeared to respond to dominant gradients of low to high salinity and upland to offshore habitat area; many of the 15 communities identified via cluster analysis showed aggregated spatial distributions that could be related to habitat characteristics. Species in the Mobile River Delta were distinct from those in other areas of the estuary. This analysis supports habitat management in the Mobile Bay estuary; however, due to mobility of organisms among sampling locations and the dynamic environmental conditions in estuaries, we conclude that the analyses presented here are most appropriate for an evaluation of the estuary as a whole.     

Motor Vehicle Contributions to Ambient PM10 and PM2.5 at Selected Urban Areas in the USA

A source apportionment study was carried out to estimate the contribution of motor vehicles to ambient particulate matter (PM) in selected urban areas in the USA. Measurements were performed at seven locations during the period September 7, 2000 through March 9, 2001. Measurements included integrated PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ concentrations and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Ambient PM_2.5 and PM₁₀ were apportioned to their local sources using the chemical mass balance (CMB) receptor model and compared with results obtained using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Results indicate that PM_2.5 components were mainly from combustion sources, including motor vehicles, and secondary species (nitrates and sulfates). PM₁₀ consisted mainly of geological material, in addition to emissions from combustion sources. The fractional contributions of motor vehicles to ambient PM were estimated to be in the range from 20 to 76% and from 35 to 92% for PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, respectively.     

美国空气固定源排污许可证中关于监测的规定及启示

监测规定是美国空气固定源运行排污许可证中的核心内容。基于"个案管理"原则,每个运行许可证中的各个产排污单元分别执行不同的监测规定。获得"连续"的监测数据需足够判定固定源排放是否合规,且成本有效。"固定源制定和提交监测方案-管理机关审核-监测方案载入排污许可证中-依方案监测-数据处理-排污许可证守法报告-管理机关合规监测和评估"的系统化监测程序,使得固定源监测更具可操作性,监测数据更规范。建议中国排污许可证制度中建立类似的监测规定。     

Regionalising the Results of a National Structural Decomposition Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Application to Aquitaine Region

Tougher restrictions on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions imposed by both national and international institutions are compelling regions to implement climate plans. However, the constraints of available statistics mean there is a shortage of regional-level information. We develop a method for regionalising the results of a national structural decomposition analysis for identifying the main factors contributing to the changing pattern of GHG emissions both at macro-economic level and at sectoral level. An illustration was carried out for the Aquitaine region. Results indicate that the method is relatively effective at least at the macroeconomic level given the statistical constraints.     

Desertification in Australia: An eye to grass roots and landscapes

Desertification in some form is estimated to have occurred over about 42% of the 5 million km² of arid and semiarid lands in Australia. The most common form of desertification is loss of perennial grasses from grasslands, savannas, and open woodlands, often with a replacement by inedible shrubs. Desertification continues to be a problem, especially during droughts when grazing pressures reduce ground cover, laying bare landscapes to wind and water erosion. But two national programs, Drought Alert and Landcare, are giving new hope in controlling land degradation. Both use a grassroots approach by promoting action through local pastoralist and farmer groups and by encouraging the use of effective techniques for rehabilitating landscapes. A strategic application of ponding banks and contour traps with an eye to the landscape has proven successful in stopping and reversing desertification processes.     

Sensitivity of Simulated Conservation Practice Effectiveness to Representation of Field and In-Stream Processes in the Little River Watershed

Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation practices (CPs) is an important step to achieving efficient and successful water quality management. Watershed-scale simulation models can provide useful and convenient tools for this evaluation, but simulated conservation practice effectiveness should be responsive to parameter values used to represent the practices in the modeling. The objectives of this study were to (1) assess the impacts of a set of conservation practices on hydrology and water quality of a watershed and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling outputs and simulated conservation practice effectiveness to parameters. The modeling study was conducted in an agricultural watershed, the subwatershed K (16.9 km²) of the Little River Experimental watershed located in the South Atlantic Coastal Plain of the USA. Sensitivity analysis showed that hydrologic response unit (HRU) and watershed-scale simulations for water quality were most sensitive to CN and FILTERW parameters. Load reduction rates as a function of increased aerial coverage of the conservation practices were greatest for total phosphorus (TP), followed by sediment and total nitrogen (TN). The results indicated that conservation practices would have a limited impact on stream flow volume but could have a significant impact on sediment and TP loads within this region. Watershed-scale TN and TP loads were also sensitive to an in-stream nutrient transformation process represented using the QUAL2E algorithm in SWAT. The study clearly demonstrated the most sensitive model parameters and the optimal conservation practices for this watershed.     

Relating Background NO2 Concentrations in Air to Air Mass History Using Non-Parametric Regression Methods: Application at Two Background Sites in Ireland

The concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) in background air varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by meteorological and anthropogenic factors. Background concentrations used in local air quality modelling studies have a significant effect on the accuracy of the overall result and when based on short-term monitoring data, variation in concentrations with air mass history is often unaccounted for. The current paper presents a powerful tool for the quantification and separation of local and regional air mass effects on background air quality. The origin of and the regions traversed by an air mass prior to reaching a receptor has been modelled using HYsplit-4. Trajectories (between 12 and 96?h duration) were defined based on the frequency with which they passed into 16 predefined compass quadrants and each represented as a vector. Using this vector as the predictor variable and the background concentration as the response variable, non-parametric regression using a Gaussian kernel function was carried out. A graphical output indicated the trajectory direction of maximum NO₂ concentration, while allowing distinction to be made between spurious and true peaks. In all cases, air mass history was found to have a statistically significant effect on NO₂ concentrations. Incorporating emissions data into the analysis local and regional effects were separated and quantified. It was found that emissions in the UK and Europe have a significant effect on background NO₂ concentrations in Ireland and in some instances supersede domestic emissions. The methods can be used to identify source regions, separate local and regional effects and improve predictions of background concentrations based on limited monitoring data. In particular, the results highlight the importance of considering air mass history when assessing background concentration levels for use in local air quality modelling studies.