Economic Valuation of Health Impact of PM10 Pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006

Abstract

In light of the practical need for research to inform policy in Beijing, this study evaluates the economic cost of the impact of PM₁₀ pollution in Beijing from 2001 to 2006, taking health as the main impact, and mortality as the main outcome. Based on the literature review, this study adopts relatively conservative parameters as the basis for calculating the health impacts. It concludes that nearly 30% of mortality among registered residents above age 30 in Beijing can be attributed to PM₁₀ pollution, and that the economic cost equals 0.8%–1.2% of the city’s GDP over the same period. This is lower than the results of previous studies, but still high enough to warrant a commitment to solve the city’s air pollution problem.     

PM_(2.5)污染对京津冀地区人群健康影响和经济影响

京津冀地区是中国工业最为发达的地区之一和空气污染最严重的地区之一,也是国家控制空气污染的重点区域。空气污染导致的健康影响不仅会增加额外健康支出,还会导致过早死亡和工作时间减少,进而影响宏观经济发展。为了评估该地区PM_(2.5)污染引起的健康问题对宏观经济的影响,以及控制空气污染后带来的经济效益和福利的影响,本研究结合可计算一般均衡模型(Computable General Equilibrium)、温室气体与大气污染物协同效益模型(The Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies-Model,GAINS-Model)和健康影响模型对2020年京津冀地区PM_(2.5)污染引起的健康影响和经济影响进行评估。模型结果表明,2020年Wo Pol情景下PM_(2.5)污染引起的额外健康支出分别为北京44.2亿元、天津27.5亿元、河北97.5亿元。PM_(2.5)污染引起人均每年劳动时间损失分别为北京81.3小时、天津89.6小时、河北73.1小时。而劳动力供给和劳动时间减少所造成GDP和福利损失依次为天津(GDP和福利损失分别为2.79%和8.11%),其次为北京(2.46%和5.10%)、河北(2.15%和3.44%)。如果采取积极的控制空气污染物排放政策,在2020年WPol情景下,PM_(2.5)污染引起的额外健康支出分别为北京8.8亿元、天津4.9亿元、河北2.0亿元,较Wo Pol情景下显著下降。PM_(2.5)污染引起人均劳动时间损失分别下降为北京22.0小时、天津23.2小时、河北22.4小时。空气污染物控制政策给北京、天津和河北带来的经济效益分别相当于GDP的1.75%、2.02%和1.46%。因此,本研究显示控制京津冀地区PM_(2.5)污染带来的经济效益非常可观,其中天津效益最高,其次为北京,河北最低。空气污染物的迁移扩散会影响周边省市的空气质量,因此京津冀地区联合控制空气污染效果更好。     

降低PM2.5健康风险的行为选择及支付意愿——以北京市居民为例

本文运用权变评价法(CVM)调查了北京市居民对大气细颗粒物(PM2.5)健康风险的认知状况、行为选择及降低健康风险的支付意愿。结果表明:182.5%的居民认为北京市空气污染较为严重,52.4%的居民知道雾霾天气是由PM2.5引起的并认为其会对自己和家人的健康带来影响,92%的居民认为政府应该承担更多降低PM2.5健康风险的责任。2在降低风险的行为中,能够节省生活成本、有益于身心健康的生活方式和符合日常生活习惯的行为得到了最积极的响应,而会降低居民生活舒适性和增加生活成本的行为支持率相对较低。3在降低30%的PM2.5浓度情景下,居民的支付意愿平均为22.78元/月;在降低60%的PM2.5浓度情景下,居民的支付意愿平均为39.82元/月。而且,居民的个体特征、经济条件、居住位置、交通方式、认知水平及风险沟通等因素,都对降低PM2.5健康风险的支付意愿产生显著影响。     

西安市大气和水污染对人群健康损害的经济价值损失研究

环境污染对人群健康造成损害的经济价值评价一直是学术界讨论的热点．采用不同的价值评估方法-VPLL潜在寿命损失年法、VSL统计生命价值法、WTP支付意愿法对西安市1996—2003年的大气和水污染对人群健康造成的经济损失进行评价。结果表明：1996—2003年。西安市大气和水污染健康损失年平均为228792万-434237万元，占GDP的3．69％-7％。对居民健康有显着影响。     

美国跨界大气环境监管经验对中国的借鉴

大气污染因其污染因子易受气候变化等影响,可进行长距离跨界传输,是典型的跨行政边界问题。我国地域辽阔,行政区域众多且与多个国家接壤或比邻,跨界污染问题研究十分必要。近年来,我国区域性大气污染问题明显,管理手段落后,缺乏相应管理体制和机制。美国在跨界大气环境管理方面取得了显著的成果,积累了丰富的经验,这对我国大气环境管理,尤其是跨界大气环境管理工作具有重要的借鉴意义。本文首先以美国大气跨界污染治理为例,结合具体实例,主要从机构设置、职能职责、运作方式三个方面详细分析了州内、州与州与之间以及跨国界三个层次跨界大气环境监管体系;其次,从上述几方面对我国与美国跨区域大气环境监管机制进行逐项比较分析;再次,对我国跨区域大气环境监管体系障碍分析认为,统分结合的环境管理体制和尚未建立区域联防联控机制是借鉴发达国家跨界大气环境监管经验的主要障碍;在此基础上,针对我国的跨区域大气环境管理工作提出5个方面的建议,即成立跨区域的权力机构;加强政府区域间协调合作;强化依法治理;多种管理手段综合应用;加强信息公开和公众参与。     

Mutagenic properties of PM2.5 air pollution in the Padana Plain (Italy) before and in the course of XX Winter Olympic Games of "Torino 2006"

PM2.5 is one of the most important aspects of environmental health. This air pollutant is breathable and it is implicated in several chronic adverse health effects such as the decrease of respiratory functionality and cancer. Several in vitro bioassays are able to predict the mutagenic/carcinogenic activity of the environmental pollutants and mixtures of them. In this study PM2.5 air pollution was daily monitored in three cities located in the Northern part of Italy and the mutagenic properties of the PM2.5 organic extracts were also assessed. Samplings lasted 14 months and cover the period of the Winter Olympic Games of "Torino 2006". In this work, the levels of PM2.5, its mutagenic properties (detected with Salmonella typhimurium assay), the role of the Olympic Games as environmental factor and some meteorological data are discussed. The mean concentration of PM2.5 measured in Torino was 45.4 (+/-30.6) microg/m(3), in Pavia 37.6 (+/-25.6) microg/m(3), in Verona 43.1 (+/-28.5) microg/m(3). Findings of the monthly pool bioassay were in Torino 107 (+/-104) net revertans/m(3), in Pavia 108 (+/-89) net revertans/m(3), in Verona 128 (+/-109) net revertans/m(3). The Olympic Games period data show that PM2.5 pollution and its load of mutagenic potential are different and partially independent phenomena. The Olympic Games had not a great impact on the PM2.5 pollution. The exclusive PM2.5 gravimetric analysis shows a potential human risk if compared with the latest international guide values but it does not describe exhaustively the human health risk associated to the presence of this particular air pollutant. Moreover, the chemical and biological activity qualification of the PM organic extracts as a whole, can instead improve the knowledge.     

Economic and Social Impact Assessment of the Alternatives to DDT Usage for Antifouling Paint Production in China

China is the only nation that uses DDT in antifouling pain at present, approximately 5% of DDT is applied as the additive of the antifouling paint production. Therefore, actions shall be taken urgently for banning the use of DDT and substituting with non-POPs alternatives in antifouling paints. The paper researches the social and economic backgrounds of DDT booster antifouling paint production and usage, analyzes the social and economic impact assessment of the alternatives to DDT usage for antifouling paint. The implementation of the project of alternatives will completely eliminate the adverse impact of DDT booster antifouling paint on terrestrial, marine ecosystem and human health. The broad use of alkali silicate and pepper alkali as substitutes will be feasible if appropriate measures will be taken to encourage their development, and the social and economic risk will be reduced to accepted levels.     

Research of the Response of Ecosystem to LUCC in Miyun County, Beijing： Based on Ecosystem Services Valuation

Miyun County,located in the northeast of Chinese capital Beijing,was underwent remarkable variations in land use in recent years.This paper aimed to detect changes in land use of Miyun from 1997 to 2005,and to qualify the response of ecosystem to LUCC based on ecosystem services valuation.With two-periods TM images,we got land use change data,and then ecosystem services values were calculated using ecosystem services valuation coefficients proposed by Chinese scholar Xie Gaodi.Results showed that water area,farm land and unused land decreased while residential land,forest land,grassland and orchard land increased during the study period.The loss of ESV was RMB 206 million and the main reason was the decrease of water area and farm land area.As for spatial variation,there were most dramatically land use change and ESV decline in reservoir ecological protection region.The coefficient sensitivity analysis indicates that valuation coefficients used in the study are suitable and results are reasonable.The driving forces of ESV loss were rapid population growth and economic development.More work should be done to make eco-environment stay healthy.     

Research of the Response of Ecosystem to LUCC in Miyun County,Beijing: Based on Ecosystem Services Valuation

Abstract

Miyun County, located in the northeast of Chinese capital Beijing, was underwent remarkable variations in land use in recent years. This paper aimed to detect changes in land use of Miyun from 1997 to 2005, and to qualify the response of ecosystem to LUCC based on ecosystem services valuation. With two-periods TM images, we got land use change data, and then ecosystem services values were calculated using ecosystem services valuation coefficients proposed by Chinese scholar Xie Gaodi. Results showed that water area, farm land and unused land decreased while residential land, forest land, grassland and orchard land increased during the study period. The loss of ESV was RMB 206 million and the main reason was the decrease of water area and farm land area. As for spatial variation, there were most dramatically land use change and ESV decline in reservoir ecological protection region. The coefficient sensitivity analysis indicates that valuation coefficients used in the study are suitable and results are reasonable. The driving forces of ESV loss were rapid population growth and economic development. More work should be done to make eco-environment stay healthy.     

大陆居民对北京雾霾的旅游影响感知和态度研究

环境质量是影响目的地旅游竞争力和可持续发展的重要因素。近年来,中国大陆出现了大范围的严重空气质量问题,雾霾成为备受关注的环境问题,关于雾霾的成因及其影响和防治成为当前学术研究的热点。包括北京在内的许多旅游城市饱受雾霾的困扰,雾霾对旅游业的负面影响开始显现,并成为当前旅游发展和学术研究的新问题。北京是世界知名的旅游目的地,旅游业在北京经济社会发展中占有重要地位,科学揭示雾霾对北京作为目的地旅游市场需求的负面影响,对于丰富雾霾影响的认识以及深化旅游研究具有重要意义。本文利用问卷星和微信平台进行了在线问卷调查,通过滚雪球方式获得了大数量较高可靠性的样本数据,研究了京外大陆居民对北京雾霾的旅游影响感知及其决策行为倾向,分析了大陆居民对北京雾霾感知的群体差异。研究表明:1在国内外媒体的广泛报道、亲友的口耳相传以及亲身经历等渠道的综合影响下,大陆居民对北京的雾霾及旅游健康风险、旅游体验风险均有十分强烈的感知;2在雾霾的持续困扰下,北京国内旅游需求减弱,市场增长速度放缓,同时也加剧了北京旅游市场的季节波动;3高学历、高收入群体对北京雾霾的旅游影响更加敏感,雾霾严重地区的居民对北京雾霾的感知强度明显大于雾霾不严重地区的居民,雾霾严重地区的居民在旅游目的地选择方面也更加排斥北京。     

An Assessment of the Valuation Methods Used to Calculate the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare (ISEW), Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI), and Sustainable Net Benefit Index (SNBI)

For some time now, ecological economists have been putting forward a ‘threshold hypothesis’ – the notion that when macroeconomic systems expand beyond a certain size, the additional cost of growth exceeds the flow of additional benefits. In order to support their belief, ecological economists have developed a number of similar indexes to measure and compare the benefits and costs of growth (e.g., the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare and the Genuine Progress Indicator). In virtually every instance where an index of this type has been calculated for a particular country, the movement of the index appears to reinforce the existence of the threshold hypothesis. Of late, a number of observers have expressed concerns about whether these alternative indexes reflect concrete reality or the prejudices of ecological economists. In view of these concerns, this paper closely examines the valuation methods used in the calculation the Index of Sustainable Economic Welfare, the Genuine Progress Indicator, and the Sustainable Net Benefit Index. It is argued that a consistent and more robust set of valuation techniques is required in order for these alternative indexes to gain broad acceptability.*Readers should send their comments on this paper to: BhaskarNath@aol.com within 3 months of publication of this issue.     

空气污染、空间外溢与公共健康——以中国珠江三角洲9个城市为例

空气污染对居民公共健康的影响,引起了人们高度的关注。但大多数学者研究从样本的独立性出发且不考虑内生性问题,忽视区域之间空间相关性,所得结论和政策建议需谨慎对待。为了弥补上述不足,本文基于Grossman中国宏观健康生产函数,选取2001—2014年中国广东省珠江三角洲9个城市作为样本,选择以PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)作为空气污染的代理指标,在充分考虑空间效应和严格假设检验的基础上选择合适的空间计量经济学模型,对此进行实证研究。主要研究结果显示:空气污染对居民的公共健康带来了负面影响,即PM_(10)和PM_(2.5)每增加1%,导致哮喘疾病和内科门诊等疾病人数不断上升,且影响都比较大,尤其是对哮喘疾病的影响分别为0.2236%和0.2272%。经济增长对公共健康均有显著的促进作用,影响最大;其它财政医疗支出、卫生技术人员和人口密度等要素对居民公共健康的影响较小。由于空气污染的负外部性,研究还发现,区域之间空气污染的"溢出效应"对领域居民公共健康存在显著的影响,说明忽视空间自相关性的存在,会使得空气污染对公众健康的估计产生偏差。从长期看,空气污染对本地居民公共健康的直接效应都显著为正,PM_(2.5)间接效应显著为负,但PM_(10)间接效应并不显著。因此,各级政府除了在源头上治理污染物的排放,提高公共健康水平外,还应该打破各自为阵的行政垄断,应该作为一个整体,实现跨区域环保合作,共同治理和制定公共卫生政策等。这对区域之间协同减排和保护居民公共健康具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

The State of Components of the Biota as an Indicator of Disturbances in Natural Ecosystems Exposed to Petrochemical Pollution

Russian Journal of Ecology -     

The Impact of Perceptual and Situational Factors on Environmental Communication: A Study of Citizen Engagement in China

This study applied a situational approach to understanding an environmental problem: PM2.5 (its resulted haze and smog air pollution) in China. Based on a national sample of 374 citizens living in China, it tested a situational model of problem solving and extended it by adding citizens’ environmental engagement behaviour as an immediate consequence of their communicative action. Results of a structural equation modelling analysis supported all the causal links in the conceptual model. Moreover, communicative action significantly mediated the relationship between referent criterion and environmental engagement. Problem recognition, constraint recognition, and involvement recognition did not influence environmental engagement directly, but exerted their significant indirect impact via two key mediators in the model: situational motivation in problem solving and communicative action in problem solving. Theoretical and practical implications of the present study were discussed.     

空气污染视角下北京市产业结构调整的政策模拟研究

空气污染问题是制约经济社会健康发展的重要因素,产业结构调整是缓解该问题的重要途径,探究产业结构调整对于空气污染问题的改善效应具有重要的意义。本文以环境保护和经济增长为双重目标,以投入产出理论为基础,构建了一个一般的具有政策权重的产业结构双目标优化模型。模型目标中的权重体现了政策对两个目标的倾向性需求。给定了某种政策权重,就能根据优化模型计算出最优的产业结构。进一步,我们以SO 2的排放量作为环保指标,以GDP作为经济指标,利用上述模型,依据实际数据,在不同政策权重下,对北京市2017年的产业结构进行了模拟测算,从而给出了与之对应的北京市最优化的产业结构调整方案。特别地,选择了其中三种政策倾向力度,即经济增长偏向性政策、中性政策、环境保护偏向性政策方案,分别给出了最优产业结构方案的数量结果和两个目标的值。我们注意到,2017年的实际值与2016年的实际值相比,2017年的污染物SO 2的排放量大幅减少,且GDP也有所增加,这表明了政府部门的政策相对有效。但是,我们计算出的三种最优化的产业结构对应的两个目标值均优于2017年实际值。事实上,对于经济偏向性政策,最优化的产业结构使得GDP的数量上升更多,而SO 2的排放量也减少了不少;即使是采用环保偏向性政策,不仅使污染物SO 2的排放量更少,而且使GDP的数量仍然高于2017年的实际值。这说明本文提出的通过优化产业结构实现环境保护是一个可行的、合理的途径。     

江苏省1997-2010年土地利用总体规划实施环境影响评价研究

土地利用总体规划的环境影响评价对提高政府决策的科学化具有十分重要的意义,国外相关方面的研究已有30年之久。但我国起步较晚。本文从江苏省土地利用总体规划出发。列出了它的规划目标,分析了江苏省土地利用的现状。对土地利用过程中工业三废的排放量和对资源的消耗量分别进行了预测和比较,据此来评价这轮土地利用总体规划的实施效果。结果表明：除了单位国土面积工业废气排放量规划实施后有较大幅度增长外,其它指标在规划实施后对环境的改善有利。达到规划实施的效果。应采取措施是：继续实行严格的土地用途管制,坚持刚性指标与弹性结合。建立环境友好型土地利用规划体系。