消费品风险评价的伤害情景与三维矩阵集成方法

通过对比分析美国、欧盟及中国的消费品质量安全风险监管和评估现状,得出我国在消费品法律及标准、伤害监测与事故信息平台及公开、消费品风险辨识及评价程序等方面有待深化研究;基于2012年欧美等国家、地区对我国出口消费品的通报数据的统计分析,识别了主要消费品的隐患及危害类型,给出了伤害情景与三维矩阵集成的消费品风险评价方法,为消费品安全评价提供了新方法、新途径,并以婴儿车为例,进行了应用分析,检验了该方法的可行性。     

HAZDIG: a new software package for assessing the risks of accidental release of toxic chemicals

HAZDIG (HAZardous DIspersion of Gases) is a user-friendly PC- based software for generating scenarios for the emissions and gaseous dispersion of hazardous chemicals. It can simulate accidental as well as normal release but has been specifically developed as a tool for studying accidental release of hazardous chemicals and the consequences. HAZDIG is made-up of five main modules—data, release scenario generation, dispersion, characteristics estimation, and graphics. HAZDIG incorporates the latest models for estimating atmospheric stability and dispersion. The data needed to run the models is easy to obtain and feed—properties of chemicals, operating conditions, ambient temperature, and a few commonly available meteorological parameters. A database containing various proportionality constants and complex empirical data has been built into the system. The graphics module enhances the user friendliness of the software, and enables presentation of the results in an easy-to-understand and visually appealing manner. The output of the software is formatted so that it can be directly used for reporting the results without the need of editing.     

Stochastic modeling of accident risks associated with an underground coal mine in Turkey

In this study, a methodology is proposed towards development of an uncertainty model that includes randomness in the occurrence of days-lost accidents in a coal mine. The accident/injury data consists of 1390 days-lost accident cases recorded at GLI-Tuncbilek underground lignite mine from January 1994 to December 2002. In the first step of proposed methodology, the frequency and the severity of the accidents have been modeled statistically by fitting appropriate distributions. The test done by BestFit software yields a chi-square value of 21.53 (p = 0.089) with 14 degrees of freedom and estimates the parameter of lambda for Poisson distribution as 12.87 accidents/month. For the severity component, a lognormal distribution is fitted to days-lost data and chi-square goodness-of-fit test calculates a value of 40.44 (p = 0.097) with 30 degrees of freedom. The parameters of lognormal distribution are estimated as a mean of 14.3 days and standard deviation of 23.1 days, respectively. Then, two distributions are basically combined by Monte Carlo simulation in order to construct relative risk levels in yearly base referring to the final cumulative distribution. Finally, a simple forecasting modeling is carried out in order to quantitatively predict the expected risk levels by using decomposition technique in time series analysis. Stochastic model estimates that although, there would be substantial reduction in the expected number of accidents in the near future, the higher level of risks still should be a concern for the mine management.     

煤矿区农田土壤多环芳烃生态风险评估方法比较

调查了迁安煤矿区农田土壤中优先控制的16种多环芳烃(PAHs)质量比,通过同一尺度对生态效应低中值、风险商值法(RQ)、有机碳归一化法及苯并(a)芘毒性等效当量4种常用评估方法的评估结果进行了比较,并尝试将商值法(RQ)与苯并(a)芘毒性等效当量(TEQBaP)相结合对该矿区土壤进行风险评估.结果表明,煤矿区农田土壤中16种PAHs总量为118.10～1 042.31 μg/kg,并以2～4环为主.4种生态风险方法评估结果与衡量尺度比较表明,生态效应低中值、RQ两种方法对PAHs处于低水平的地区适用性欠佳;有机碳归一化法及苯并(a)芘毒性等效当量两种方法能较好地表征该地区PAHs的生态风险水平,但不能对不同污染水平下的生态风险程度予以分级.RQ-TEQ复合法评估结果显示,11％土壤样品存在重度生态风险,11％处于中度风险,45％存在轻度生态风险,22％处于警戒线范畴,11％不存在生态风险.与单一方法相比,复合方法评估结果分级明确,与衡量尺度吻合较好,较适用于该煤矿区PAHs的生态风险评估.     

Time allocation between work and recreation and the associated injury risks among young people

PROBLEM: The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between overall risk of injury and time use patterns between work and active recreation among adolescents and young adults. METHODS: Using a representative sample of 9,795 Canadians aged 15-24 years, a multivariate logistic regression on the likelihood of any medically attended injury was conducted, including sociodemographic, individual, and time factors. RESULTS: Young people who engaged in a combination of high work and high activity hours were twice as likely to sustain a medically attended injury compared to those who worked low hours, but did not participate in any recreational activity. Those respondents who were not in school had a 43% increase in injury risk compared to full-time students. SUMMARY: Our findings suggest that injury risk was not a simple function of fatigue and cumulative exposure time. Our findings suggest the importance of considering time use and the associated injury risk tradeoffs. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Relevant to state and federal work safety policy makers, our findings suggest the importance of understanding where youth might otherwise spend their time if constraint were placed on their employment opportunities, and the associated injury risk tradeoffs must be taken into consideration.     

Grey relational analysis based on instance based learning approach for classification of risks of occupational low back disorders

Classification of industrial jobs related to occupational low back disorders risks has great significance in preventing injuries and designing workplaces. In this study, industrial jobs are classified into two categories, i.e., low risk and high risk, using grey relational analysis approach. The results on a dataset are provided, together with the comparisons in terms of classification accuracy between the proposed approach and other methods that used the same dataset, including logistic regression, decision tree, neural networks, neuro-fuzzy classification, ant colony optimisation, memory-based reasoning, and ensemble model. The proposed approach outperforms other alternative methods and yields at least 10% improvement in classification accuracy compared to the best results achieved among the earlier studies.     

一起工伤事故的分析与预防

叙述了工作面减速机液力耦合器伤人经过 ,分析了事故各方面的原因 ,并制定了预防措施 ,具有普遍性和典型性。     

A review of driving risks and impairments associated with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and the effects of stimulant medication on driving performance

INTRODUCTION: Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) may interfere with driving competence, predisposing those with the disorder to impaired driving performance and greater risk for adverse driving outcomes. Effective treatment may minimize the risk in those with ADHD. METHOD: We reviewed the scientific literature on driving risks and impairments associated with ADHD and the effects of stimulants on driving performance. Several lines of evidence were considered, including longitudinal studies and community-derived sample studies. The present review is based on a weekly review (by the first author) of all journals in the behavioral and social sciences indexed in the publication Current Contents spanning the past 15 years, as well as a search of the reference section of all studies found that pertained to driving risks associated with ADHD or to the treatment of ADHD as it relates to driving difficulties. RESULTS: The review of the scientific literature demonstrated well-documented driving risks and impairments associated with ADHD and the positive effects of stimulant medications on driving performance. CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians should educate patients/caregivers about the increased risk of adverse outcomes among untreated individuals with ADHD and the role of medication in potentially improving driving performance. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: Owing to the significantly higher risk of adverse driving outcomes, the use of stimulant medications to treat people with ADHD who drive may reduce such safety risks.     

基于文本挖掘的煤矿安全隐患分析

为充分有效利用煤矿安全隐患数据,揭示安全隐患数据中隐藏的重要信息和潜在规律,用于指导安全管理实践,在对安全隐患数据进行预处理的基础上,利用词云和词频统计方法展现安全隐患概况,运用文本挖掘技术和社会网络分析方法研究煤矿安全隐患信息的关联关系和分布规律。结果表明,将文本挖掘技术和社会网络分析方法应用于文本型安全隐患数据分析具有可行性,有助于煤矿企业提高对安全隐患数据的认知并制定合理的安全隐患治理措施。     

浅析数字化集气站安全风险及控制措施

苏里格气田地处毛乌素沙漠,是典型的低渗、低压、低丰度岩性气藏,单井产量低,建井数量多,靠人工管理的难度大,本着降本增效、减少风险的原则,数字化集气站在苏里格气田得到了大力推广,其应用过程中面临着与传统集气站不同的安全风险。文章对数字化集气站运行过程中的各类安全风险进行了分析,介绍了风险应对的控制措施,期望为数字化集气站的安全管理提供新的思路。     

Industrial disasters: Extreme events,extremely rare. Some reflections on the treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of the associated risks

This paper addresses the issue of risk from disasters occurring due to accidents in high-consequence technologies, e.g., nuclear and oil and gas. The focus is on the challenges posed to the representation and treatment of uncertainties in the assessment of such risk, given that the occurrence of such extreme disasters is extremely unlikely, and yet they occur. A general framework of analysis is proposed.     

工业再生项目运维期建筑安全影响因素分析

为提高工业再生项目运维期建筑安全管理水平,鉴于工业再生项目运维期建筑安全影响因素的多诱因和不确定性,通过分析工业再生项目改造特点,并结合实地调研的运维期安全现状,以4M1E原理为框架,系统地构建了工业再生项目运维期建筑安全影响因素指标体系.并提出将广义最大熵原理结合集对分析构建考虑因素发生概率的五元联系数集对分析模型.综合考虑因素对运维期建筑安全产生影响的概率和破坏程度,评判运维期建筑安全受影响层级,并预测因素影响状态的发展趋势.通过工程实例验证该模型,所选取评价对象的建筑安全影响因素处于较低影响层级,并朝着更低影响层级发展,与实际运维期情况相符.通过该模型可以实现运维期建筑安全影响因素的主动控制,提高运维期建筑安全应对能力.     

基于ARMA模型的中国工伤事故死亡率预测研究

文中用ARMA模型,对1974年至2003年全国工业企业事故死亡率进行时间序列分析,用SAS软件检验模型的可行性,并进行预测应用.结果表明,基于ARMA模型的中国工伤事故死亡率的模拟值和真实值较吻合.     

LNG储罐泄漏危险性影响因素分析

LNG(液化天然气)泄漏后产生大量的蒸汽,蒸汽的扩散受液池尺寸、泄漏区域地面类型、环境条件的影响,为了研究以上因素对LNG蒸汽扩散的影响,以方便采取事故预防措施,采用ALOHA软件对以上因素影响甲烷UFL(爆炸上限)、LFL(爆炸下限)、1/2LFL在下风向扩散的最远距离进行了定量分析,划分了可能发生火灾或者爆炸的危险区域,得出LNG泄漏到水面、混凝土地面、湿沙层、干沙层上危险性依次降低。选取水面温度分别为5℃、10℃、15℃、25℃,围堰尺寸分别为400 m2、600 m2、800 m2、1 000 m2,环境温度分别为-10℃、0℃、10℃、20℃、30℃、40℃时,对下风向甲烷体积分数分布进行定量分析,结果表明,甲烷UFL、LFL、12LFL扩散最远距离随水面温度、围堰尺寸、环境温度增加而逐渐增大。     

公共安全视角下的叠加风险解析

近年来,公共安全风险形态发生了重大变化。以往完全发生在公共场所群死群伤的重大事故明显减少,而发生在职业场所之内或附近的公共安全事故却明显增多,反映出一些地方和企业对职业安全与公共安全叠加而生的新风险认识不到位,管控不到位。安全发展的形势迫切要求我们必须从理念、内涵、评价等多维度进行深入研究。本文对公共安全在新时期内涵与形态的变化进行了再认识,对职业安全风险、公共安全风险以及两者叠加而成的新风险特征进行了分析。     

作业场所职业危害程度分级现状分析

我国作业场所职业危害情况严重，有害作业点检测率和检测合格率都很低，对有害作业场所进行分级是重点治理和监察前提。本文介绍了国内外作业场所职业危害程度分级现状，分析了我国作业场所职业危害程度分级存在的主要问题，并提出了在我国进行作业场所进行综合分级，根据分级结果进行分级监察的设想。     

基于SKPCA与NEAT算法的煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测

针对煤与瓦斯突出预测精度不足的问题,为了减少突出灾害的危害,提出了基于稀疏核主成分分析法(SKPCA)与增强拓扑神经进化算法(NEAT)的煤与瓦斯突出危险性预测方法.通过核主成分分析法对突出非线性数据进行降维,然后对主成分数据进行稀疏化,减少原始数据中不重要元素对降维后主成分的影响.搭建增强拓扑神经进化网络(NEAT)预测模型,采用进化算法同时优化神经网络的权值和拓扑结构,得到最佳神经网络预测模型.将处理后的主成分数据输入模型预测突出危险指数,结果表明,该方法危险等级预测准确度达到98％,SKPCA-NEAT模型在煤与瓦斯突出预测上相比PCA和BP神经网络具有优势.     

An algorithm for assessing the risk of traffic accident

INTRODUCTION: This study is aimed at developing an algorithm to estimate the number of traffic accidents and assess the risk of traffic accidents in a study area. METHOD: The algorithm involves a combination of mapping technique (Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques) and statistical methods (cluster analysis and regression analysis). Geographical Information System is used to locate accidents on a digital map and realize their distribution. Cluster analysis is used to group the homogeneous data together. Regression analysis is performed to realize the relation between the number of accident events and the potential causal factors. Negative binomial regression model is found to be an appropriate mathematical form to mimic this relation. Accident risk of the area, derived from historical accident records and causal factors, is also determined in the algorithm. The risk is computed using the Empirical Bayes (EB) approach. A case study of Hong Kong is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. RESULTS: The results show that the algorithm improves accident risk estimation when comparing to the estimated risk based on only the historical accident records. The algorithm is found to be more efficient, especially in the case of fatality and pedestrian-related accident analysis. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The output of the proposed algorithm can help authorities effectively identify areas with high accident risk. In addition, it can serve as a reference for town planners considering road safety.     

Analysis of hazard areas associated with high-pressure natural-gas pipelines

The rupture of a high-pressure natural-gas pipeline can lead to outcomes that can pose a significant threat to people and property in the immediate vicinity of the failure location. The dominant hazards are thermal radiation from sustained fire and collapse of buildings from explosion inside or in a partially confined area enclosed by buildings. A simplified equation has been developed that relates the diameter, the operating pressure and the length of pipeline to the size of the affected area in the event of a full-bore rupture. The equation is based on release rate, gas jet and heat flux from fire to estimate the hazard area. Hazard area is directly proportional to the operating pressure raised to a half power, and to the pipeline diameter raised to five-fourths power, but inversely proportional to the pipeline length raised to a quarter power. The simplified equation will be a useful tool for safety management of high-pressur natural-gas pipelines.     

A comparison of three observational techniques for assessing postural loads in industry.

This study aims to compare 3 observational techniques for assessing postural load, namely, OWAS, RULA, and REBA. The comparison was based on the evaluation results generated by the classification techniques using 301 working postures. All postures were sampled from the iron and steel, electronics, automotive, and chemical industries, and a general hospital. While only about 21% of the 301 postures were classified at the action category/level 3 or 4 by both OWAS and REBA, about 56% of the postures were classified into action level 3 or 4 by RULA. The inter-method reliability for postural load category between OWAS and RULA was just 29.2%, and the reliability between RULA and REBA was 48.2%. These results showed that compared to RULA, OWAS, and REBA generally underestimated postural loads for the analyzed postures, irrespective of industry, work type, and whether or not the body postures were in a balanced state.