California Statewide Assessment of the Effects of Ozone on Crop Productivity

Six properties appear desirable for any set of ozone attainment criteria: (1) sufficient stringency to protect public health, (2) simplicity and understandability, (3) sensitivity to real changes in air quality, (4) stability against meteorological fluctuations, (5) use of as much data as possible, and (6) equivalence between the stringency the criteria appear to mandate, and what they actually mandate. We consider how the federal attainment criteria might be improved with respect to Properties 4 through 6 while being equally strong on 1 through 3. Whether the federal standard meets Property 1 has been the subject of debate, but our analysis would apply also to a modified standard. We show that there are subtleties in how improvements might be made. In particular, basing the attainment status on a statistic with low variance may not lead to a more stable criterion, and although it is easy to find a criterion that makes it hard for a district with bad air to reach attainment, or a district with good air to get out of attainment, it is hard to find a criterion that does both. This suggests using different criteria for districts that are out of attainment from districts that are in attainment. Initially the burden of proof would be on the district to prove that its air is of attainment quality. However, once the district has achieved attainment the burden of proof would shift; the district would remain in attainment unless there was strong evidence to the contrary. An evaluation of a set of criteria based on this idea showed improvements over the federal criteria with respect to the last three desirable properties-stability, use of data, and equivalent stringency-with some sacrifice in simplicity and sensitivity.     

Government/Industry Cost Sharing for Air Pollution Control

Several existing federal and state provisions act to reduce the cost to in dustry of controlling air pollution. Included are the federal corporate income tax, depreciation allowances, investment credits, small Business Administration loans, Economic Development Administration aid, and state tax laws. These provisions give government assistance to industry amounting to as much as 59 percent of the cost of air pollution control. Numerous bills have been introduced in Congress that would give additional government aid to industry in the form of special across-the-board tax allowances for air pollution control equipment. A typical bill of this type would result in the government bearing an additional 11 percent of these costs. There are several possible objectives for this kind of additional aid; however, none of these seem valid when the amount of present assistance is recognized. From this analysis, it would seem that additional across-the-board tax subsidies for air pollution control equipment are neither required nor advisable. Future studies and/or experience may show certain firms or industries for which air pollution control will be too great a burden and for which additional government assistance is advisable. When such cases are found, legislation should be enacted only after the pros and cons of the various assistance methods are considered.     

Efficacy of recent state implementation plans for 8-hour ozone

The development of state implementation plans (SIPs) for attainment of criteria pollutant standards is an integral component of air quality management in the United States. However, the content and efficacy of SIPs have rarely been examined systematically. Here, 20 SIPs developed in response to the 1997 8-hr ozone standard are reviewed as case studies of attainment efforts at the state level. Comparison of observed and model predicted ozone concentrations shows the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommended modeled attainment test to be a somewhat conservative predictor of attainment. Among 12 SIPs for regions that sought attainment by 2009, the test correctly predicted attainment and nonattainment in four and five regions, respectively; in the other three regions, attainment was observed despite predictions of nonattainment. However weight-of-evidence determinations and deviations from the recommended modeled attainment test methodology led five of these SIPs to predict attainment that was not in fact observed by 2009; three of those regions achieved attainment in 2010. Ozone and NO2 concentrations declined across much of the United States during the period covered by the SIPs, with rates of improvement strongly correlated with the initial pollution levels and hence greatest in nonattainment regions. However at monitors with mid-range levels of ozone initially, rates of reduction were largely independent of the initial attainment status of the region. This is consistent with thefact that apart from California, the majority of ozone precursor reductions documented by SIPs resulted from federal measures rather than from state or local controls specific to the nonattainment regions.     

Issues with ozone attainment methodology for Houston, TX

To comply with the federal 8-hr ozone standard, the state of Texas is creating a plan for Houston that strictly follows the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) guidance for demonstrating attainment. EPA's attainment guidance methodology has several key assumptions that are demonstrated to not be completely appropriate for the unique observed ozone conditions found in Houston. Houston's ozone violations at monitoring sites are realized as gradual hour-to-hour increases in ozone concentrations, or by large hourly ozone increases that exceed up to 100 parts per billion/hr. Given the time profiles at the violating monitors and those of nearby monitors, these large increases appear to be associated with small parcels of spatially limited plumes of high ozone in a lower background of urban ozone. Some of these high ozone parcels and plumes have been linked to a combination of unique wind conditions and episodic hydrocarbon emission events from the Houston Ship Channel. However, the regulatory air quality model (AQM) does not predict these sharp ozone gradients. Instead, the AQM predicts gradual hourly increases with broad regions of high ozone covering the entire Houston urban core. The AQM model performance can be partly attributed to EPA attainment guidance that prescribes the removal in the baseline model simulation of any episodic hydrocarbon emissions, thereby potentially removing any nontypical causes of ozone exceedances. This paper shows that attainment of all monitors is achieved when days with observed large hourly variability in ozone concentrations are filtered from attainment metrics. Thus, the modeling and observational data support a second unique cause for how ozone is formed in Houston, and the current EPA methodology addresses only one of these two causes.     

Controlling Metropolitan Pollution Through Regional Airsheds: Administrative Requirements and Political Problems

This is an evaluation of the regional approach to controlling air pollution, in the light of the New York metropolitan experience, and recent federal and state legislative developments. Regional airsheds are defined and their administrative advantages delineated. The political difficulties involved in establishing and managing regional control districts, such as jurisdictional and regulatory problems, are also discussed. This paper touches upon the extent and adequacy of present day coordination and cooperation between agencies in the New York metropolitan area, as illustrated by the failure of the alert system during the Thanksgiving 1966 air pollution “episode.” The conflicting approaches of regional air quality commissions and the Mid-Atlantic States Air Pollution Control Compact are stressed. The desirability of such federal and state legislative proposals, and the advantages and drawbacks of special districts and other institutional arrangements to solve regional problems are also evaluated.     

A Method for Determining Source Reduction Required to Meet Air Quality Standards

Governmental boundaries which divide our states frequently do not coincide with the natural geographic and atmospheric conditions affecting regional air pollution problems. Moreover, the control regulations of one state may vary from those of its neighbors. Such areal synthesis of air pollution control measures might only minimally curb the difficulties.

Continuity of control will require cooperation among contiguous states. In this study the attitudes of incumbent elected officials and air pollution experts (both from within the Philadelphia metropolitan area) toward governmental responsiveness have been investigated. It was hypothesized that politicians would want to demonstrate a status quo approach while experts would advocate the creation of an environmental agency for the Philadelphia region’s pollution problems. However, both sample groups responded to the questionnaire survey affirming that they want government to establish an environmental regional control agency, based upon an interstate compact, that has authority strong enough to be a strict enforcing agent. This regional agency should meet all federal conditions and thus receive maximum federal financial assistance. The policy level officials of this agency should be appointed experts—so as to avoid partisan politics, and to acquire the most qualified personnel.     

Modeled and observed fine particulate matter reductions from state attainment demonstrations

States rely upon photochemical models to predict the impacts of air quality attainment strategies, but the performance of those predictions is rarely evaluated retrospectively. State implementation plans (SIPs) developed to attain the 1997 U.S. standard for fine particulate matter (PM_2.5; denoting particles smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter) by 2009 provide the first opportunity to assess modeled predictions of PM_2.5 reductions at the state level. The SIPs were the first to rely upon a speciated modeled attainment test methodology recommended by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to predict PM_2.5 concentrations and attainment status. Of the 23 eastern U.S. regions considered here, all but one achieved the 15 μg/m³ standard by 2009, and the other achieved it the following year, with downward trends sustained in subsequent years. The attainment tests predicted 2009 PM_2.5 design values at individual monitors with a mean bias of 0.38 μg/m³ and mean error of 0.68 μg/m³, and were 95% accurate in predicting whether a monitor would achieve the standard. All of the errors were false alarms, in which the monitor observed attainment after a modeled prediction of an exceedance; in these cases, the states used weight-of-evidence determinations to argue that attainment was likely. Overall, PM_2.5 concentrations at monitors in the SIP regions declined by 2.6 μg/m³ from 2000–2004 to 2007–2009, compared with 1.6 μg/m³ in eastern U.S. regions originally designated as attainment. Air quality improvements tended to be largest at monitors that were initially the most polluted.

ImplicationsAs states prepare to develop plans for attaining a more stringent standard for fine particulate matter, this retrospective analysis documents substantial and sustained air quality improvements achieved under the previous standard. Significantly larger air quality improvements in regions initially designated nonattainment of the 1997 standard indicate that this status prompted heightened control efforts. The speciated modeled attainment test is found to be accurate and slightly conservative in predicting particulate concentrations for the cases considered here, providing confidence for its use in upcoming attainment plans.     

Adapting air quality management for a changing climate: Survey of local districts in California

Air quality can be affected by weather and thus is sensitive to a changing climate. Wildfire (influenced by weather), consecutive high temperature summer days, and other extreme events are projected to become more severe and frequent with climate change. These may create challenging conditions for managing air quality despite policy targets to reduce precursor and pollutant emissions. Although extreme events are becoming more intense and interest in climate adaptation is increasing among public health practitioners, little attention in scholarly literature and policy covers climate adaptation for air quality governance. Understanding the management and managers’ perspectives at the local level provides insight about the needs for climate adaptation, including their adaptation status, perspectives, responsibilities, and roles. This study explores local manager perspectives and experiences of managing air quality within a changing climate as one puzzle piece to understand the gap in climate adaptation within the air quality sector. A broader goal is to contribute to the discussion of developing a multi-jurisdictional vision for reducing the impacts of air quality in a changing climate. In 2016 local air quality district managers in California were invited to participate in an online survey of 39 questions focused on extreme event impacts on air quality. The questionnaire focused on present air quality threats and extreme event challenges, adaptation status and strategies, adaptive capacities, perceived barriers to adaptation, and jurisdictional responsibilities and roles. Over 85 percent of the 35 local air districts in California participated in the survey, which represents 80 percent of the state’s population. High awareness and knowledge of climate change among local managers indicates they are ready to adopt and take action on policies that would support climate adaptation, but barriers reported suggests they may need policies and adequate funding to take action and make necessary changes.

Implications: Downscaled global climate models project an increasing severity and frequency of extreme events. In the southwestern United States, these include wildfire, heat events, and dry periods, among others, all of which can place an extra burden on air quality managers and emitters to achieve air quality standards even as they reduce emissions. Despite climate change presenting increasing challenges to meet air quality standards, in the southwestern United States, policy and action to mitigate these impacts have been surprisingly absent. California presents a valuable case study on the topic because of its historic leadership in air quality management for the United States and also because of its initiatives in combating climate change. Yet still we found that adaptation has not been incorporated into air quality management thus far, but local managers seem sufficiently knowledgeable and willing.     

An analysis of effects of San Diego wildfire on ambient air quality

The impact of major gaseous and particulate pollutants emitted by the wildfire of October 2003 on ambient air quality and health of San Diego residents before, during, and after the fire are analyzed using data available from the San Diego County Air Pollution Control District and California Air Resources Board. It was found that fine particulate matter (PM) levels exceeded the federal daily 24-hr average standard during the fire. There was a slight increase in some of the gaseous pollutants, such as carbon monoxide, which exceeded federal standards. Ozone (O3) precursors, such as total hydrocarbons and methane gases, experienced elevated concentration during the fire. Fortunately, the absence of sunlight because of the cloud of thick smoke that covered most of the county during the fire appears to have prevented the photochemical conversion of the precursor gases to harmful concentrations of O3. Statistical analysis of the compiled medical surveillance data has been used to establish correlations between pollutant levels in the region and the resultant health problems experienced by the county citizens. The study shows that the increased PM concentration above the federal standard resulted in a significant increase in hospital emergency room visits for asthma, respiratory problems, eye irritation, and smoke inhalation. On the basis of the findings, it is recommended that hospitals and emergency medical facilities engage in pre-event planning that would ensure a rapid response to an impact on the healthcare system as a result of a large wildfire and appropriate agencies engage in the use of all available meteorological forecasting resources, including real-time satellite imaging assets, to accurately forecast air quality and assist firefighting efforts.     

Concentrations of Particulate Matter Emitted from Large Cattle Feedlots in Kansas

Effective August 1, 1978 the Government of Canada ordered that all future federal regulations of significant economic import, covering the subjects of health, safety and fairness be preceded by the publication of a formal socioeconomic impact analysis (SEIA). Environmental protection regulations are included. I encountered my first public reaction to this announcement at a conference in Ottawa on the subject of “Jobs and the Environment”. A union official duly observed that the SEIA was obviously industry’s answer to having to carry out Environmental Impact Assessments. Not much later, I was told by a senior environmental official of an overseas country that what SEIA really did was to place the burden of proof on governments as to the need for control, rather than leaving industry to show that their activities were not damaging to the environment.     

Impact of three interactive Texas state regulatory programs to decrease ambient air toxic levels

The Federal Clean Air Act (FCAA) framework envisions a federal-state partnership whereby the development of regulations may be at the federal level or state level with federal oversight. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) establishes National Ambient Air Quality Standards to describe “safe” ambient levels of criteria pollutants. For air toxics, the EPA establishes control technology standards for the 187 listed hazardous air pollutants (HAPs) but does not establish ambient standards for HAPs or other air toxics. Thus, states must ensure that ambient concentrations are not at harmful levels. The Texas Clean Air Act authorizes the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), the Texas state environmental agency, to control air pollution and protect public health and welfare. The TCEQ employs three interactive programs to ensure that concentrations of air toxics do not exceed levels of potential health concern (LOCs): air permitting, ambient air monitoring, and the Air Pollutant Watch List (APWL). Comprehensive air permit reviews involve the application of best available control technology for new and modified equipment and ensure that permits protect public health and welfare. Protectiveness may be demonstrated by a number of means, including a demonstration that the predicted ground-level concentrations for the permitted emissions, evaluated on a case-by-case and chemical-by-chemical basis, do not cause or contribute to a LOC. The TCEQ's ambient air monitoring program is extensive and provides data to help assess the potential for adverse effects from all operational equipment in an area. If air toxics are persistently monitored at a LOC, an APWL area is established. The purpose of the APWL is to reduce ambient air toxic concentrations below LOCs by focusing TCEQ resources and heightening awareness. This paper will discuss examples of decreases in air toxic levels in Houston and Corpus Christi, Texas, resulting from the interactive nature of these programs.

Implications: Texas recognized through the collection of ambient monitoring data that additional measures beyond federal regulations must be taken to ensure that public health is protected. Texas integrates comprehensive air permitting, extensive ambient air monitoring, and the Air Pollutant Watch List (APWL) to protect the public from hazardous air toxics. Texas issues air permits that are protective of public health and also assesses ambient air to verify that concentrations remain below levels of concern in heavily industrialized areas. Texas developed the APWL to improve air quality in those areas where monitoring indicates a potential concern. This paper illustrates how Texas engaged its three interactive programs to successfully address elevated air toxic levels in Houston and Corpus Christi.     

Atmospheric particulate mercury in Changchun City,China

From July 1999 to January 2000, the total suspended particulate matter (TSP) in the atmosphere collected by high-volume sampler was used to determine the particulate Hg of four function districts and one contrast district in the City of Changchun,China. The study results indicated that the value of the volume-based concentration and the mass-based concentration of each district during the heating period are higher than those of the nonheating period. The volume-based concentration of the urban districts is higher than that of the contrast district. Atmospheric Hg concentrations varied temporally and spatially. TSP is the critical factor of particulate Hg concentration; precipitation is the main meteorological factor affecting Hg (p) concentration in the atmosphere; coal combustion and wind-blown soil material are the important sources of atmospheric particulate Hg. During heating period, the coal combustion makes a greater contribution to Hg(p) than that of wind-blown soil materials.     

Modeling Analysis of Power Plants for Compliance Extensions in 51 Air Quality Control Regions

Past studies indicate a nationwide potential low-sulfur coal supply deficit in 1975 arising from extremely low-sulfur State Implementation Plan requirements which cannot ail be met in time by available coal and gas cleaning technology. One means to alleviate this net deficit would be to grant variances where at least primary air quality standards would be maintained.

An extensive modeling analysis was conducted by EPA and Walden Research on a large number of power plants in 51 AQCRs located in 20 states to determine if compliance extensions at these plants could significantly reduce the projected deficit of lowsulfur coal. Using simulation modeling, air quality impact at each plant for projected 1975 operations was determined with application of SIP regulatory requirements and with a full variance from SIP requirements for coal-fired boilers. The results from this investigation indicate that the attainment of primary SO2 air quality standards for the coal-fired plants would probably not be jeopardized by the application of full variance status to 34% of the plants and limited variance status to an additional 22% of the plants. No variance is appropriate for the remaining plants. The projected annual reduction In low-sulfur coal demand (less than 1.0% sulfur) is approximately 137 million tons. The projected shift in the average coal sulfur distribution is from 1.2% under SIP status to 2.1% under the applicable variance status. The power plant variance strategy appears, then, to offer a potentially feasible approach toward alleviating the low-sulfur coal deficit problem without jeopardizing attainment of primary air quality standards. It should be emphasized that compliance extensions are not the only way, or the most desirable way, of dealing with this problem. The final selection of a strategy for a given state or AQCR and the implementation of that strategy involve many questions and policy matters beyond the scope of this study.     

A New Approach to Setting Vehicle Emission Standards

Urban ambient air quality trend analysis was evaluated as an alternative to rollback analysis to estimate vehicle emission standards needed to achieve national ambient air quality standards. Examination of the trends of monthly maximum 8 hour average carbon monoxide concentrations, central business district traffic activity, and emission rates from vehicles on the road suggests that the automotive exhaust emission standard for carbon monoxide derived in response to the requirements of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1970 may be ten times too severe. The excessive stringency of the vehicle emission standard for carbon monoxide was confirmed by two different analyses of the correlation between annual mean carbon monoxide concentration and frequency of occurrence of carbon monoxide concentrations above the level of the 8-hour standard. One correlation analysis using all available CAMP data involved an empirical approach and the other assumed that carbon monoxide concentrations are described by the lognormal distribution. Based on the analysis of CAMP air quality data, a vehicle carbon monoxide emission standard of approximately 29 grams per mile appears adequate to meet the ambient air quality standard. The large difference between the results of this analysis and the 1976 Federal vehicle carbon monoxide emission standard indicates the advisability of applying this methodology to verification of the standards for hydrocarbons and oxides of nitrogen.     

Epidemiological Bases for Possible Air Quality Criteria for Lead

In at least some urban areas, population exposure to elevated atmospheric lead levels is associated with increased blood lead. No reasonable alternative explanation exists other than that the increased levels of lead pollution are causing increased lead storage in the body. The study of lead body burdens in U. S. populations indicates an increasing concentration with age in liver, spleen, pancreas, kidney, and lung. No such increase is found in samples of residents from foreign countries.

The effect of increased storage of lead on porphyrin metabolism is in urgent need of investigation. Higher levels of lead exposure may interfere with hemoglobin synthesis.

Using WHO categories for air quality guides (criteria), a level I criterion for two micrograms of lead per cubic meter of air for a long-term average can be proposed. It would apply to pollution largely derived from motor vehicular sources.     

Identification of substances with potential for long-range transport as possible substances of very high concern

According to the European legislation, REACH, organic compounds are considered as substances of very high concern (SVHC) if they are persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT). A substance's long-range transport potential (LRTP) may also pose a risk to remote regions. This is, however, not yet explicitly included. For identification of compounds, which are not PBT according to REACH criteria, but show LRTP, we investigated 22,438 compounds from the Canadian Domestic Substance List (CDSL). The CDSL was searched for organic, neutral compounds. Substance properties were estimated with EPI Suite v4.00. Next, the substance list was edited in two ways: (1) The half-life criterion in air for LRTP as defined in the Stockholm Convention was applied. (2) For all compounds, indicators for persistence and LRTP were calculated with the multimedia model ELPOS v2.2. Applying the half-life criterion, we identified 594 substances, which are prone to LRT but are not PBT (non-PBT-L substances). In contrast, investigations with ELPOS lead to a shorter list of 188 substances, which are non-PBT-L substances. Finally, the list was compared with potential Arctic contaminants identified in previous literature. Our results show that there is a large number of organic chemicals which would not be considered as SVHC since they are not, at the same time, persistent, bioaccumulative and toxic according to REACH criteria. Nevertheless, they show LRTP according to different screening approaches and thus a potential hazard to remote regions.     

Sub-region (district) and sector level SO2 and NOx emissions for India: assessment of inventories and mitigation flexibility

Sub-regional and sector level distribution of SO₂ and NO_x emissions inventories for India have been estimated for all the 466 Indian districts using base data for years 1990 and 1995. Although, national level emissions provide general guidelines for assessing mitigation alternatives, but significant regional and sectoral variability exist in Indian emissions. Districts reasonably capture this variability to a fine grid as 80% of these districts are smaller than 1°×1° resolution with 60% being smaller than even 1/2°×1/2°. Moreover, districts in India have well-established administrative and institutional mechanisms that would be useful for implementing and monitoring measures. District level emission estimates thus offer a finer regional scale inventory covering the combined interests of the scientific community and policy makers. The inventory assessment methodology adopted is similar to that prescribed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The sectoral decomposition at district level includes emissions from fossil fuel combustion, non-energy emissions from industrial activities and agriculture. Total SO₂ and NO_x emissions from India were 3542 and 2636 Gg, respectively (1990) and 4638 and 3462 Gg (1995) growing at annual rate of around 5.5%. The sectoral composition of SO₂ emissions indicates a predominance of electric power generation sector (46%). Power and transport sector emissions equally dominate NO_x emissions contributing nearly 30% each. However, majority of power plants are situated in predominantly rural districts while the latter are concentrated in large urban centers. Mitigation efforts for transport sector NO_x emissions would therefore be higher. The district level analysis indicates diverse spatial distribution with the top 5% emitting districts contributing 46.5 and 33.3% of total national SO₂ and NO_x emissions, respectively. This skewed emission pattern, with a few districts, sectors and point sources emitting significant SO₂ and NO_x, offers mitigation flexibility to policy makers for cost-effective mitigation.     

Assessment of the emissions and air quality impacts of biomass and biogas use in California

It is estimated that there is sufficient in-state “technically” recoverable biomass to support nearly 4000 MW of bioelectricity generation capacity. This study assesses the emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and resulting air quality impacts of new and existing bioenergy capacity throughout the state of California, focusing on feedstocks and advanced technologies utilizing biomass resources predominant in each region. The options for bioresources include the production of bioelectricity and renewable natural gas (NG). Emissions of criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases are quantified for a set of scenarios that span the emission factors for power generation and the use of renewable natural gas for vehicle fueling. Emissions are input to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to predict regional and statewide temporal air quality impacts from the biopower scenarios. With current technology and at the emission levels of current installations, maximum bioelectricity production could increase nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions by 10% in 2020, which would cause increases in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in large areas of California. Technology upgrades would achieve the lowest criteria pollutant emissions. Conversion of biomass to compressed NG (CNG) for vehicles would achieve comparable emission reductions of criteria pollutants and minimize emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Air quality modeling of biomass scenarios suggest that applying technological changes and emission controls would minimize the air quality impacts of bioelectricity generation. And a shift from bioelectricity production to CNG production for vehicles would reduce air quality impacts further. From a co-benefits standpoint, CNG production for vehicles appears to provide the best benefits in terms of GHG emissions and air quality.

Implications:?This investigation provides a consistent analysis of air quality impacts and greenhouse gas emissions for scenarios examining increased biomass use. Further work involving economic assessment, seasonal or annual emissions and air quality modeling, and potential exposure analysis would help inform policy makers and industry with respect to further development and direction of biomass policy and bioenergy technology alternatives needed to meet energy and environmental goals in California.     

Unsolved Problems with Flue-FED Incinerators

At the beginning of the federal program in 1955, air pollution was viewed as a technical challenge. While technical problems remain, emphasis is shifting toward the social challenge. The degree of federal assistance now available to states and municipalities, under the Clean Air Act, is of broadened scope and higher order of magnitude; it is not confined to technical considerations, but has been expanded to take cognizance of political and economic obstacles that often block the path toward better air pollution control.