Adaptation to Climate Change in Developing Countries

Adaptation to climate change is given increasing international attention as the confidence in climate change projections is getting higher. Developing countries have specific needs for adaptation due to high vulnerabilities, and they will in this way carry a great part of the global costs of climate change although the rising atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations are mainly the responsibility of industrialized countries. This article provides a status of climate change adaptation in developing countries. An overview of observed and projected climate change is given, and recent literature on impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation are reviewed, including the emerging focus on mainstreaming of climate change and adaptation in development plans and programs. The article also serves as an introduction to the seven research articles of this special issue on climate change adaptation in developing countries. It is concluded that although many useful steps have been taken in the direction of ensuring adequate adaptation in developing countries, much work still remains to fully understand the drivers of past adaptation efforts, the need for future adaptation, and how to mainstream climate into general development policies.     

Development,Malaria and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Case Study from India

India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.     

Assessing the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Protected Area Networks: A Method to Simulate Individual Species' Responses

Global climate change, along with continued habitat loss and fragmentation, is now recognized as being a major threat to future biodiversity. There is a very real threat to species, arising from the need to shift their ranges in the future to track regions of suitable climate. The Important Bird Area (IBA) network is a series of sites designed to conserve avian diversity in the face of current threats from factors such as habitat loss and fragmentation. However, in common with other networks, the IBA network is based on the assumption that the climate will remain unchanged in the future. In this article, we provide a method to simulate the occurrence of species of conservation concern in protected areas, which could be used as a first-step approach to assess the potential impacts of climate change upon such species in protected areas. We use species-climate response surface models to relate the occurrence of 12 biome-restricted African species to climate data at a coarse (quarter degree-degree latitude-longitude) resolution and then intersect the grid model output with IBA outlines to simulate the occurrence of the species in South African IBAs. Our results demonstrate that this relatively simple technique provides good simulations of current species' occurrence in protected areas. We then use basic habitat data for IBAs along with habitat preference data for the species to reduce over-prediction and further improve predictive ability. This approach can be used with future climate change scenarios to highlight vulnerable species in IBAs in the future and allow practical recommendations to be made to enhance the IBA network and minimize the predicted impacts of climate change.     

A Framework for Assessing Climate Change Impacts on Water and Watershed Systems

In this article we present a framework for assessing climate change impacts on water and watershed systems to support management decision-making. The framework addresses three issues complicating assessments of climate change impacts—linkages across spatial scales, linkages across temporal scales, and linkages across scientific and management disciplines. A major theme underlying the framework is that, due to current limitations in modeling capabilities, assessing and responding to climate change should be approached from the perspective of risk assessment and management rather than as a prediction problem. The framework is based generally on ecological risk assessment and similar approaches. A second theme underlying the framework is the need for close collaboration among climate scientists, scientists interested in assessing impacts, and resource managers and decision makers. A case study illustrating an application of the framework is also presented that provides a specific, practical example of how the framework was used to assess the impacts of climate change on water quality in a mid-Atlantic, U.S., watershed.     

The Value of Linking Mitigation and Adaptation: A Case Study of Bangladesh

There are two principal strategies for managing climate change risks: mitigation and adaptation. Until recently, mitigation and adaptation have been considered separately in both climate change science and policy. Mitigation has been treated as an issue for developed countries, which hold the greatest responsibility for climate change, while adaptation is seen as a priority for the South, where mitigative capacity is low and vulnerability is high. This conceptual divide has hindered progress against the achievement of the fundamental sustainable development challenges of climate change. Recent attention to exploring the synergies between mitigation and adaptation suggests that an integrated approach could go some way to bridging the gap between the development and adaptation priorities of the South and the need to achieve global engagement in mitigation. These issues are explored through a case study analysis of climate change policy and practice in Bangladesh. Using the example of waste-to-compost projects, a mitigation-adaptation-development nexus is demonstrated, as projects contribute to mitigation through reducing methane emissions; adaptation through soil improvement in drought-prone areas; and sustainable development, because poverty is exacerbated when climate change reduces the flows of ecosystem services. Further, linking adaptation to mitigation makes mitigation action more relevant to policymakers in Bangladesh, increasing engagement in the international climate change agenda in preparation for a post-Kyoto global strategy. This case study strengthens the argument that while combining mitigation and adaptation is not a magic bullet for climate policy, synergies, particularly at the project level, can contribute to the sustainable development goals of climate change and are worth exploring.     

气候变化对中国旅游业持续发展的影响及应对措施

气候变化已不同程度地威胁到中国旅游业持续发展所依赖的主要生态系统,使旅游业遭受到巨大的经济损失,并且使旅游业面临着改变其产品和形象的威胁,可能进一步加剧旅游业与自然保护之间的冲突、凸显社会公平问题。尽管中国现行立法已为保障旅游业持续发展提供了相应的制度支撑,但远不足以应对气候变化对中国旅游业持续发展带来的严峻挑战。当前迫切需要开展旅游业的可持续管理与教育、培育旅游市场和发展循环经济等联合行动。     

Population,Development, and Waste Management in Botswana: Conceptual and Policy Implications for Climate Change

Based on government and other relevant documentation, this paper explores the conceptual linkage between population, development, and waste management in Botswana and the implications of this relationship for global climate change. Population is increasing, albeit at a decreasing rate. Spatially, the population is becoming more and more concentrated as the rates and level of urbanization increase. Economic growth has remained consistently high. The combined effect of population dynamics and economic development are having a noticeable imprint on the environment in the form of increased waste generation. Poor waste management poses a real threat to environmental sustainability in general and climate change in particular because of inadequate technology, weak institutional mechanisms to enforce regulations, and low levels of sensitization among the public to deal with the problem. Mitigation measures are suggested to minimize the negative effects of waste management on climate change.     

Mainstreaming sustainable development: Evolving perspectives and challenges from the Philippine experience

National sustainable development strategies (NSDSs) play a vital role in pursuing sustainable development (SD) at the country level. These strategies help in clarifying priorities and in focusing efforts to more effectively address relevant SD issues. Since its establishment in 1992, the United Nations Commission on Sustainable Development has urged its members to formulate and implement their respective NSDS. The Programme for the Further Implementation of Agenda 21 (1997) provided a more aggressive push to this advocacy by setting 2002 as the deadline for the formulation of NSDS while the Johannesburg Plan of Implementation (2002) targeted 2005 as the year by which all countries should have started implementing such strategies. Many countries have heeded this call, albeit the strategies have taken a variety of forms: some took the route of formulating National Agenda 21s (as in the Philippine case), while others built on existing national environmental action plans, poverty strategies, sustainability plans, so‐called green plans, policy statements, or legal frameworks. The UN/DESA crafted some guidelines for NSDS formulation but, and rightly so, countries are given freedom of choice as to the scope, substance and form best suited to their own unique circumstances. As varied as the formats of these strategies turned out, so too were the processes that were adopted in their formulation. All these elements could reflect varying degrees of understanding and differing perspectives about the nature of sustainable development and how the concept could be made operational. Consequently, such an understanding could ultimately define a country's success in mainstreaming and achieving sustainable development. In this connection, it would be worthwhile examining how an NSDS has actually played out its role in the national pursuit of sustainable development. Are there creative insights, lessons or guidelines that can be drawn from practical, countrywide experience in NSDS formulation and implementation? What are the emerging challenges and problematic areas in using an NSDS as an instrument for integrating sustainable development in mainstream decision‐making? Are there nascent considerations that could be useful in developing design parameters for NSDS? This paper explores the foregoing questions in the Philippine context, given its decade‐long experience in implementing its NSDS, the Philippine Agenda 21 (PA 21). In so doing, it hopes to distill potentially valuable perspectives that can inform UNCSD and country‐level efforts at crafting, refining and mainstreaming national strategies for sustainable development.     

Impacts of Climate Change on Extreme Precipitation Events Over Flamingo Tropicana Watershed1

Abstract: Climate change, particularly the projected changes to precipitation patterns, is likely to affect runoff both regionally and temporally. Extreme rainfall events are expected to become more intense in the future in arid urban areas and this will likely lead to higher streamflow. Through hydrological modeling, this article simulates an urban basin response to the most intense storm under anthropogenic climate change conditions. This study performs an event‐based simulation for shorter duration storms in the Flamingo Tropicana (FT) watershed in Las Vegas, Nevada. An extreme storm, defined as a 100‐year return period storm, is selected from historical records and perturbed to future climatic conditions with respect to multimodel multiscenario (A1B, A2, B1) bias corrected and spatially disaggregated data from the World Climate Research Programme's (WCRP's) database. The cumulative annual precipitation for each 30‐year period shows a continuous decrease from 2011 to 2099; however, the summer convective storms, which are considered as extreme storms for the study area, are expected to be more intense in future. Extreme storm events show larger changes in streamflow under different climate scenarios and time periods. The simulated peak streamflow and total runoff volume shows an increase from 40% to more than 150% (during 2041‐2099) for different climate scenarios. This type of analysis can help evaluate the vulnerability of existing flood control system and flood control policies.     

找准经济与环境协调发展的切入点

实施可持续发展战略,就是要实现经济建设与环境保护协调发展。本文从佳木斯市实际出发,提出了环境保护职能部门如何参与经济结构调整以实现经济与环境协调发展的意见和建议。     

From climate change impacts to adaptation: A development perspective for India

India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio‐economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in India as an example. The framework links climate change variables — temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables — and sustainable development variables — technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less‐GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change.     

Adaptive Management and Climate Change Adaptation: Two Mutually Beneficial Areas of Practice

Adaptive management (AM) is a rigorous approach to implementing, monitoring, and evaluating actions, so as to learn and adjust those actions. Existing AM projects are at risk from climate change, and current AM guidance does not provide adequate methods to deal with this risk. Climate change adaptation (CCA) is an approach to plan and implement actions to reduce risks from climate variability and climate change, and to exploit beneficial opportunities. AM projects could be made more resilient to extreme climate events by applying the principles and procedures of CCA. To test this idea, we analyze the effects of extreme climatic events on five existing AM projects focused on ecosystem restoration and species recovery, in the Russian, Trinity, Okanagan, Platte, and Missouri River Basins. We examine these five case studies together to generate insights on how integrating CCA principles and practices into their design and implementation could improve their sustainability, despite significant technical and institutional challenges, particularly at larger scales. Although climate change brings substantial risks to AM projects, it may also provide opportunities, including creating new habitats, increasing the ability to quickly test flow‐habitat hypotheses, stimulating improvements in watershed management and water conservation, expanding the use of real‐time tools for flow management, and catalyzing creative application of CCA principles and procedures.     

Food Security in the Face of Climate Change,Population Growth,and Resource Constraints: Implications for Bangladesh

Ensuring food security has been one of the major national priorities of Bangladesh since its independence in 1971. Now, this national priority is facing new challenges from the possible impacts of climate change in addition to the already existing threats from rapid population growth, declining availability of cultivable land, and inadequate access to water in the dry season. In this backdrop, this paper has examined the nature and magnitude of these threats for the benchmark years of 2030 and 2050. It has been shown that the overall impact of climate change on the production of food grains in Bangladesh would probably be small in 2030. This is due to the strong positive impact of CO₂ fertilization that would compensate for the negative impacts of higher temperature and sea level rise. In 2050, the negative impacts of climate change might become noticeable: production of rice and wheat might drop by 8% and 32%, respectively. However, rice would be less affected by climate change compared to wheat, which is more sensitive to a change in temperature. Based on the population projections and analysis of future agronomic innovations, this study further shows that the availability of cultivable land alone would not be a constraint for achieving food self-sufficiency, provided that the productivity of rice and wheat grows at a rate of 10% or more per decade. However, the situation would be more critical in terms of water availability. If the dry season water availability does not decline from the 1990 level of about 100 Bm³, there would be just enough water in 2030 for meeting both the agricultural and nonagricultural needs. In 2050, the demand for irrigation water to maintain food self-sufficiency would be about 40% to 50% of the dry season water availability. Meeting such a high agricultural water demand might cause significant negative impacts on the domestic and commercial water supply, fisheries, ecosystems, navigation, and salinity management.     

秦皇岛市气候变化对可持续发展的影响及对策

秦皇岛市46年来气候变暖变干,年平均气温提高1.8℃,≥10℃年积温增加11.4％,无霜期延长22天,但年平均降水量却减少11.5％。这对农业和工业的影响弊大于利,对旅游业的影响则有利有弊。为此应趋利避害,加强水资源的开源节流,发展节水经济和循环经济,发展休闲度假旅游,延长旺季。     

The Importance of Contexts in Strategies of Environmental Organizations with Regard to Climate Change

2 problem, which brought the issue into the energy debate, as well as the more general definition of the problem in the late 1980s as a greenhouse problem, were very important for determining the strategies of the organizations. It can be concluded that strategies of Dutch environmental organizations with regard to climate change were strongly dependent on the context.     

A Multiattribute Index for Assessing Environmental Impacts of Regional Development Projects: A Case Study of Korea

Evaluating environmental impacts has become an increasingly vital part of environmental management. In the present study, a methodological procedure based on multiattribute utility theory (MAUT) has been applied to obtain a decision-maker's value index on assessment of the environmental impacts. The paper begins with an overview of MAUT. Next, we elicited strategic objectives and several important attributes, and then structured them into a hierarchy, with the aim of structuring and quantifying the basic values for the assessment. An environmental multiattribute index is constructed as a multiattribute utility function, based on value judgements provided by a decision-maker at the Korean Ministry of Environment (MOE). The implications of the results are useful for many aspects of MOE's environmental policies; identifying the strategic objectives and basic values; facilitating communication about the organization's priorities; and recognizing decision opportunities that face decision-makers of Korea.     

云南少数民族地区经济社会发展失衡评价及对策研究

云南少数民族地区主要经济社会指标低于全省平均水平,经济社会发展存在很大的不平衡性,而发展失衡容易引发地区性社会风险。对云南少数民族地区经济社会发展失衡程度进行了评价,发现各少数民族地区都存在失衡现象,但各地区失衡程度不一,引发失衡的原因不同。因此,为了促进云南少数民族地区社会经济实现可持续发展,维护社会稳定,促进和谐社会的建立,提出了相应的对策来降低发展过程中的失衡效应。     

ENVIRONMENTAL AUDITING: A Synoptic Approach for Assessing Cumulative Impacts to Wetlands

/ The US Environmental Protection Agency's Wetlands ResearchProgram has developed the synoptic approach as a proposed method forassessing cumulative impacts to wetlands by providing both a general and acomprehensive view of the environment. It can also be applied more broadly toregional prioritization of environmental issues. The synoptic approach is aframework for making comparisons between landscape subunits, such aswatersheds, ecoregions, or counties, thereby allowing cumulative impacts tobe considered in management decisions. Because there is a lack of tools thatcan be used to address cumulative impacts within regulatory constraints, thesynoptic approach was designed as a method that could make use of availableinformation and best professional judgement. Thus, the approach is acompromise between the need for rigorous results and the need for timelyinformation. It is appropriate for decision making when quantitative,accurate information is not available; the cost of improving existinginformation or obtaining better information is high; the cost of a wronganswer is low; there is a high demand for the information; and the situationcalls for setting priorities between multiple decisions versus optimizing fora single decision. The synoptic approach should be useful for resourcemanagers because an assessment is timely; it can be completed within one totwo years at relatively low cost, tested, and improved over time. Anassessment can also be customized to specific needs, and the results arepresented in mapped format. However, the utility of a synoptic assessmentdepends on how well knowledge of the environment is incorporated into theassessment, relevant to particular management questions.KEY WORDS: Cumulative impact assessment; Landscape ecology; Regionalprioritization     

浅论经济、社会与环境三效益的矛盾与统一

阐述了经济效益、社会效益与环境效益之间的相互对立统一的辨证关系，从概念和内涵对其矛盾与统一进行了分析，从其相互关系及综合评价中说明了存在的矛盾问题及解决的方法，只有运用可持续发展的理论改变传统的发展观、自然观，人类就一定能够与环境和谐共存，达到经济、社会与环境三效益的结合与统一。     

Contrasting Lumped and Distributed Hydrology Models for Estimating Climate Change Impacts on California Watersheds1

Maurer, Edwin P., Levi D. Brekke, and Tom Pruitt, 2010. Contrasting Lumped and Distributed Hydrology Models for Estimating Climate Change Impacts on California Watersheds. Journal of the American Water Resources Association (JAWRA) 46(5):1024–1035. DOI: 10.1111/j.1752-1688.2010.00473.x Abstract: We compare the projected changes to streamflows for three Sierra Nevada rivers using statistically downscaled output from 22 global climate projections. The downscaled meteorological data are used to drive two hydrology models: the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model and the variable infiltration capacity model. These two models differ in their spatial resolution, computational time step, and degree and objective of calibration, thus producing significantly different simulations of current and future streamflow. However, the projected percentage changes in monthly streamflows through mid-21st Century generally did not differ, with the exceptions of streamflow during low flow months, and extreme low flows. These findings suggest that for physically based hydrology models applied to snow-dominated basins in Mediterranean climate regimes like the Sierra Nevada, California, model formulation, resolution, and calibration are secondary factors for estimating projected changes in extreme flows (seasonal or daily). For low flows, hydrology model selection and calibration can be significant factors in assessing impacts of projected climate change.