Internal ecosystem feedbacks enhance nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria blooms and complicate management in the Baltic Sea

Eutrophication of the Baltic Sea has potentially increased the frequency and magnitude of cyanobacteria blooms. Eutrophication leads to increased sedimentation of organic material, increasing the extent of anoxic bottoms and subsequently increasing the internal phosphorus loading. In addition, the hypoxic water volume displays a negative relationship with the total dissolved inorganic nitrogen pool, suggesting greater overall nitrogen removal with increased hypoxia. Enhanced internal loading of phosphorus and the removal of dissolved inorganic nitrogen leads to lower nitrogen to phosphorus ratios, which are one of the main factors promoting nitrogenfixing cyanobacteria blooms. Because cyanobacteria blooms in the open waters of the Baltic Sea seem to be strongly regulated by internal processes, the effects of external nutrient reductions are scale-dependent. During longer time scales, reductions in external phosphorus load may reduce cyanobacteria blooms; however, on shorter time scales the internal phosphorus loading can counteract external phosphorus reductions. The coupled processes inducing internal loading, nitrogen removal, and the prevalence of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria can qualitatively be described as a potentially self-sustaining "vicious circle." To effectively reduce cyanobacteria blooms and overall signs of eutrophication, reductions in both nitrogen and phosphorus external loads appear essential.     

Effects of an invasive polychaete on benthic phosphorus cycling at sea basin scale: An ecosystem disservice

Macrofaunal activities in sediments modify nutrient fluxes in different ways including the expression of species-specific functional traits and density-dependent population processes. The invasive polychaete genus Marenzelleria was first observed in the Baltic Sea in the 1980s. It has caused changes in benthic processes and affected the functioning of ecosystem services such as nutrient regulation. The large-scale effects of these changes are not known. We estimated the current Marenzelleria spp. wet weight biomass in the Baltic Sea to be 60–87 kton (95% confidence interval). We assessed the potential impact of Marenzelleria spp. on phosphorus cycling using a spatially explicit model, comparing estimates of expected sediment to water phosphorus fluxes from a biophysical model to ecologically relevant experimental measurements of benthic phosphorus flux. The estimated yearly net increases (95% CI) in phosphorous flux due to Marenzelleria spp. were 4.2–6.1 kton based on the biophysical model and 6.3–9.1 kton based on experimental data. The current biomass densities of Marenzelleria spp. in the Baltic Sea enhance the phosphorus fluxes from sediment to water on a sea basin scale. Although high densities of Marenzelleria spp. can increase phosphorus retention locally, such biomass densities are uncommon. Thus, the major effect of Marenzelleria seems to be a large-scale net decrease in the self-cleaning capacity of the Baltic Sea that counteracts human efforts to mitigate eutrophication in the region.     

Reduction of Baltic Sea Nutrient Inputs and Allocation of Abatement Costs Within the Baltic Sea Catchment

The Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) requires tools to simulate effects and costs of various nutrient abatement strategies. Hierarchically connected databases and models of the entire catchment have been created to allow decision makers to view scenarios via the decision support system NEST. Increased intensity in agriculture in transient countries would result in increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea, particularly from Poland, the Baltic States, and Russia. Nutrient retentions are high, which means that the nutrient reduction goals of 135 000 tons N and 15 000 tons P, as formulated in the BSAP from 2007, correspond to a reduction in nutrient loadings to watersheds by 675 000 tons N and 158 000 tons P. A cost-minimization model was used to allocate nutrient reductions to measures and countries where the costs for reducing loads are low. The minimum annual cost to meet BSAP basin targets is estimated to 4.7 billion €.     

Nutrient Abatement Potential and Abatement Costs of Waste Water Treatment Plants in the Baltic Sea Region

We assess the physical potential to reduce nutrient loads from waste water treatment plants in the Baltic Sea region and determine the costs of abating nutrients based on the estimated potential. We take a sample of waste water treatment plants of different size classes and generalize its properties to the whole population of waste water treatment plants. Based on a detailed investment and operational cost data on actual plants, we develop the total and marginal abatement cost functions for both nutrients. To our knowledge, our study is the first of its kind; there is no other study on this issue which would take advantage of detailed data on waste water treatment plants at this extent. We demonstrate that the reduction potential of nutrients is huge in waste water treatment plants. Increasing the abatement in waste water treatment plants can result in 70 % of the Baltic Sea Action Plan nitrogen reduction target and 80 % of the Baltic Sea Action Plan phosphorus reduction target. Another good finding is that the costs of reducing both nutrients are much lower than previously thought. The large reduction of nitrogen would cost 670 million euros and of phosphorus 150 million euros. We show that especially for phosphorus the abatement costs in agriculture would be much higher than in waste water treatment plants.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s13280-013-0435-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Impact of Climate Change on Ecological Quality Indicators and Biogeochemical Fluxes in the Baltic Sea: A Multi-Model Ensemble Study

Multi-model ensemble simulations using three coupled physical-biogeochemical models were performed to calculate the combined impact of projected future climate change and plausible nutrient load changes on biogeochemical cycles in the Baltic Sea. Climate projections for 1961-2099 were combined with four nutrient load scenarios ranging from a pessimistic business-as-usual to a more optimistic case following the Helsinki Commission's (HELCOM) Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). The model results suggest that in a future climate, water quality, characterized by ecological quality indicators like winter nutrient, summer bottom oxygen, and annual mean phytoplankton concentrations as well as annual mean Secchi depth (water transparency), will be deteriorated compared to present conditions. In case of nutrient load reductions required by the BSAP, water quality is only slightly improved. Based on the analysis of biogeochemical fluxes, we find that in warmer and more anoxic waters, internal feedbacks could be reinforced. Increased phosphorus fluxes out of the sediments, reduced denitrification efficiency and increased nitrogen fixation may partly counteract nutrient load abatement strategies.     

Reconstruction of the pollution history of alkylphenols (4-tert-octylphenol, 4-nonylphenol) in the Baltic Sea

This paper reports the reconstruction of the pollution history of 4-tert-octylphenol (OP) and 4-nonylphenol (NP) in the Baltic Sea. Alkylphenols are endocrine-disrupting compound and therefore toxic to aquatic organisms. Sediment cores were collected from regions with relatively stable sedimentation conditions. The cores were dated by the ²¹⁰Pb method. The OP and NP were determined using HPLC-FL. The highest inventory of these compounds was observed in the Gotland Deep (610 μg m² of NP and 47 μg m² of OP) and the lowest—on the slope of the Gdansk Deep (24 μg m² of NP and 16 μg m² of OP). Such spatial distribution was probably, among other factors, the result of the uplift of the sea floor. The pollution trends of OP and NP in sediments coincided with the following: (1) the beginnings of eutrophication (1960s/1970s of the twentieth century) and (2) strong increase in the areal extent and volume of hypoxia and anoxia in the Baltic (present century).     

Interaction between nitrogen and phosphorus cycles in mining-affected aquatic systems—experiences from field and laboratory measurements

The main objectives of this study were to (a) study the interaction between N and P cycles in mining-affected aquatic systems and (b) to quantify release rates of sedimentary soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) that may be related to this interaction. Sediment cores and water from Lake Bruträsket (Boliden, northern Sweden) were collected and a time series of water sampling and flow measurements was conducted in the Brubäcken stream connected to the lake. Factors affecting SRP release were studied in a sediment incubation experiment and water column experiments. Field and laboratory measurements indicated that pH and dissolved oxygen are two important factors for SRP release. At the end of the low-oxygen incubation, an SRP concentration of 56 μg?L^?1 resulted in a sedimentary flux of 1.1 mg SRP?m^?2?day^?1. This is ～10 times higher than the flux of 0.12 mg SRP?m^?2?day^?1 obtained from depth integration of vertical SRP profiles measured in the lake, and ～100 times higher than the external flux of 0.014 mg SRP?m^?2?d^?1 into the lake (based on catchment area). Field measurements indicated that oxidation of organic matter and mining-related chemicals (ammonium and thiosulphates) may result in increased internal SRP flux from the sediment. Increased P loading in the lake as a result of low-oxygen conditions could change water column total nitrogen/total phosphorus ratios from 27 to 17, consequently changing the lake from being P-limited to be co-limited by N and P. The obtained findings point to possible interaction between the cycles of nitrogen (oxygen consumption) and P (flux from sediment) that may be important for nutrient regulation in mine water recipients.     

Seasonal variations in phosphorus species in the surface sediments of the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea.

The redox-dependent variations in concentrations of phosphorus at two different accumulation bottom areas were investigated in the Gulf of Riga (Baltic Sea) between December 1993 and January 1995. The sediment samples from nine sampling occasions were analyzed for phosphorus forms and redox potential. The average concentrations of total phosphorus measured in 0-1 cm (65 and 89 micromol P g(-1) for sites G5 and T3, respectively) were among the highest reported from the entire Baltic Sea. Redox-dependent "mobile" phosphorus (MP) contributed more than 50% of total in the uppermost-oxidized centimeter, whereas in reduced layers it was 16-18% throughout the year. The significant differences (ANOVA, P<0.01) among months of inorganic phosphorus (IP) concentration at 0-1 cm were observed at site G5 due to temporary accumulation of mobile phosphorus mediated by redox-dependent bacteria activity during summer. On the contrary no accumulation was observed at T3 probably as a result of low redox potential caused by high accumulation rates and low bioturbation. Although the water column above sediments remained oxic throughout the investigation period, the redox potential at site T3 was close to the redoxcline (i.e., +230 mV) during summer. Further increase of eutrophication might lead to development of anoxic conditions at sediment-water interface and that in turn will result in rapid release of redox-dependent phosphorus stored in surface sediments. The availability of excess phosphorus will further enhance eutrophication in partly phosphorus-limited Gulf of Riga.     

Projected future climate change and Baltic Sea ecosystem management

Climate change is likely to have large effects on the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Simulations indicate 2–4 °C warming and 50–80 % decrease in ice cover by 2100. Precipitation may increase ~30 % in the north, causing increased land runoff of allochthonous organic matter (AOM) and organic pollutants and decreased salinity. Coupled physical–biogeochemical models indicate that, in the south, bottom-water anoxia may spread, reducing cod recruitment and increasing sediment phosphorus release, thus promoting cyanobacterial blooms. In the north, heterotrophic bacteria will be favored by AOM, while phytoplankton production may be reduced. Extra trophic levels in the food web may increase energy losses and consequently reduce fish production. Future management of the Baltic Sea must consider the effects of climate change on the ecosystem dynamics and functions, as well as the effects of anthropogenic nutrient and pollutant load. Monitoring should have a holistic approach, encompassing both autotrophic (phytoplankton) and heterotrophic (e.g., bacterial) processes.     

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.     

Modeling riverine nutrient transport to the Baltic Sea: a large-scale approach

We developed for the first time a catchment model simulating simultaneously the nutrient land-sea fluxes from all 105 major watersheds within the Baltic Sea drainage area. A consistent modeling approach to all these major watersheds, i.e., a consistent handling of water fluxes (hydrological simulations) and loading functions (emission data), will facilitate a comparison of riverine nutrient transport between Baltic Sea subbasins that differ substantially. Hot spots of riverine emissions, such as from the rivers Vistula, Oder, and Daugava or from the Danish coast, can be easily demonstrated and the comparison between these hot spots, and the relatively unperturbed rivers in the northern catchments show decisionmakers where remedial actions are most effective to improve the environmental state of the Baltic Sea, and, secondly, what percentage reduction of riverine nutrient loads is possible. The relative difference between measured and simulated fluxes during the validation period was generally small. The cumulative deviation (i.e., relative bias) [Sigma(Simulated - Measured)/Sigma Measured x 100 (%)] from monitored water and nutrient fluxes amounted to +8.2% for runoff, to -2.4% for dissolved inorganic nitrogen, to +5.1% for total nitrogen, to +13% for dissolved inorganic phosphorus and to +19% for total phosphorus. Moreover, the model suggests that point sources for total phosphorus compiled by existing pollution load compilations are underestimated because of inconsistencies in calculating effluent loads from municipalities.     

The impact of benthic macrofauna for nutrient fluxes from Baltic Sea sediments

This article focuses on the ecological role of benthic macrofauna on nutrient dynamics and benthic-pelagic coupling in the Baltic Sea with relation to eutrophication. Generally, benthic macrofaunal activities have large effects on sediment biogeochemistry and often with stimulatory effects on processes that counteract eutrophication, i.e., denitrification and increased phosphorus retention of the sediment. The degree of faunal impact on such processes varies depending on faunal density and functional group composition. The effect of macrofaunal activities on sediment nutrient dynamics can also result in a higher nitrogen: phosporus ratio of the sediments efflux compared with sediments without macrofauna. Increased internal nutrient loading during eutrophication-induced anoxia is suggested to be caused both by altered sediment biogeochemical processes and through reduced or lost bioturbating macrofauna and thereby a reduced stimulatory effect from their activities on natural purification processes of the Baltic Sea ecosystem.     

Modeling Nutrient Transports and Exchanges of Nutrients Between Shallow Regions and the Open Baltic Sea in Present and Future Climate

We quantified horizontal transport patterns and the net exchange of nutrients between shallow regions and the open sea in the Baltic proper. A coupled biogeochemical-physical circulation model was used for transient simulations 1961-2100. The model was driven by regional downscaling of the IPCC climate change scenario A1B from two global General Circulation Models in combination with two nutrient load scenarios. Modeled nutrient transports followed mainly the large-scale internal water circulation and showed only small circulation changes in the future projections. The internal nutrient cycling and exchanges between shallow and deeper waters became intensified, and the internal removal of phosphorus became weaker in the warmer future climate. These effects counteracted the impact from nutrient load reductions according to the Baltic Sea Action Plan. The net effect of climate change and nutrient reductions was an increased net import of dissolved inorganic phosphorus to shallow areas in the Baltic proper.     

Climate Change Impact on Riverine Nutrient Load and Land-Based Remedial Measures of the Baltic Sea Action Plan

To reduce eutrophication of the Baltic Sea, all nine surrounding countries have agreed upon reduction targets in the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP). Yet, monitoring sites and model concepts for decision support are few. To provide one more tool for analysis of water and nutrient fluxes in the Baltic Sea basin, the HYPE model has been applied to the region (called Balt-HYPE). It was used here for experimenting with land-based remedial measures and future climate projections to quantify the impacts of these on water and nutrient loads to the sea. The results suggest that there is a possibility to reach the BSAP nutrient reduction targets by 2100, and that climate change may both aggravate and help in some aspects. Uncertainties in the model results are large, mainly due to the spread of the climate model projections, but also due to the hydrological model.     

Closing a Loop: Substance Flow Analysis of Nitrogen and Phosphorus in the Rainbow Trout Production and Domestic Consumption System in Finland

Ongoing eutrophication is changing the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Aquaculture causes relatively small-scale nutrient emissions, but local environmental impact may be considerable. We used substance flow analysis (SFA) to identify and quantify the most significant flows and stocks of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) related to rainbow trout aquaculture in Finland. In 2004–2007, the input of nutrients to the system in the form of fish feed was 829 t N year⁻¹ and 115 t P year⁻¹. Around one-fifth of these nutrients ended up as food for human consumption. Of the primary input, 70% ended up in the Baltic Sea, directly from aquaculture and indirectly through waste management. The nutrient cycle could be closed partially by using local fish instead of imported fish in rainbow trout feed, thus reducing the net load of N and P to a fraction.     

Extremes of Temperature, Oxygen and Blooms in the Baltic Sea in a Changing Climate

In the future, the Baltic Sea ecosystem will be impacted both by climate change and by riverine and atmospheric nutrient inputs. Multi-model ensemble simulations comprising one IPCC scenario (A1B), two global climate models, two regional climate models, and three Baltic Sea ecosystem models were performed to elucidate the combined effect of climate change and changes in nutrient inputs. This study focuses on the occurrence of extreme events in the projected future climate. Results suggest that the number of days favoring cyanobacteria blooms could increase, anoxic events may become more frequent and last longer, and salinity may tend to decrease. Nutrient load reductions following the Baltic Sea Action Plan can reduce the deterioration of oxygen conditions.     

Modeling the Baltic Sea eutrophication in a decision support system

SANBALTS (Simple As Necessary Baltic Long-Term Large-Scale) is a model of the coupled nitrogen and phosphorus cycles. This model has been developed as an integral part of the decision support system Marine Research on Eutrophication's Nest with the overall aim to evaluate management options for reducing Baltic Sea eutrophication. Simulated nutrient and oxygen concentrations as well as transport flows and major biogeochemical fluxes can be analyzed in many different ways, including construction of detailed nutrient budgets and tracing the fate of nutrient inputs. The large amounts of data that exist for this sea makes it possible to validate model results with observations. Major biogeochemical properties of the Baltic Sea are discussed through an analyses of model sensitivity to external forcing and internal parameterizations. Model results emphasize two features that are especially important for ecosystem management: i) impacts of local measures would always be modified by the long-range transports from other regions and ii) the response to significant changes in loads would only be seen after several decades.     

Survey of perfluorinated alkyl acids in Finnish effluents, storm water, landfill leachate and sludge

The objective of the Control of Hazardous Substances in the Baltic Sea (COHIBA) project is to support the implementation of the HELCOM Baltic Sea Action Plan regarding hazardous substances by developing joint actions to achieve the goal of “a Baltic Sea with life undisturbed by hazardous substances”. One aim in the project was to identify the most important sources of 11 hazardous substances of special concern in the Baltic Sea. Among them are perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). In this study, four perfluorinated alkyl acids (PFAAs) were studied: PFOA, PFOS, perfluorohexanoic acid (PFHxA) and perfluorodecanoic acid (PFDA). The occurrence of PFAAs in municipal and industrial wastewater treatment plant effluents (MWWTP1-3, IWWTP1), target industry effluent, storm water, landfill leachate and sludge was studied. Effluents were analysed six times and storm water, leachate and sludge were analysed twice, once in the warm season and once in the cold, during a 1-year sampling campaign. PFOS prevailed in two municipal effluents (MWWTP1 and 3) and industrial effluent (IWWTP1; 7.8–14, 8.0–640 and 320–1,300 ng/l, respectively). However, in one municipal effluent (MWWTP2) PFOA was, in a majority of sampling occasions, the predominant PFAA (9–15 ng/l) followed by PFOS (3.8–20 ng/l). The highest PFAA loads of the municipal effluents were found in the MWWTP3 receiving the biggest portion of industrial wastewater. In storm water the highest concentration was found for PFHxA (17 ng/l). The highest concentration of PFOS and PFOA were 9.9 and 5.1 ng/l, respectively. PFOS, PFOA and PFHxA were detected in every effluent, storm water and landfill leachate sample, whereas PFDA was detected in most of the samples (77 %). In the target industry, PFOS concentrations varied between 1,400 and 18,000 μg/l. In addition, on one sampling occasion PFOA and PFHxA were found (0.027 and 0.009 μg/l, respectively). For effluents, PFAA mass flows into the Baltic Sea were calculated. For municipal wastewater treatment plants average mass flows per day varied for PFOS between 1,073 and 38,880 mg/day, for PFOA 960 and 2,700 mg/day, for PFHxA 408 and 1,269 mg/day and for PFDA 84 and 270 mg/day. In IWWTP mass flows for PFOS, PFOA, PFHxA and PFDA were 495 mg/d, 28 mg/d, 23 mg/d and 0.6 mg/g, respectively.     

Nutrient retention in plant biomass and sediments from the salt marsh in Hangzhou Bay estuary, China

Nutrient load into the ocean can be retained during the process of plant uptake and sedimentation in marshes along the bay zone. Seasonal variations of biomass and nutrient concentration in three dominated plant assemblages and associated sediments were monitored in this study area to determine effects of salt marsh on nutrient retention. Results showed that plant aboveground biomass displayed a unimodal curve with nutrient concentration generally decreased from spring to winter. Belowground biomass was relatively low during the rapid growth period with nutrient concentration tending to decrease and then increase during this period. Plant total nitrogen (TN) pools are higher than total phosphorus (TP) pools, and both pools showed significant seasonal variations. Water purification coefficients (WPC) of nutrients by plant assimilation were 34.4/17.3, 19.3/24.0, and 5.14/6.04 t/(m² year) (TN/TP) for Phragmites australis, Spartina alterniflora, and Scirpus mariqueter, respectively. Overall, these results suggest that higher annual plant biomass and nutrient assimilation contribute to greater nutrient retention capacity and accumulation in sediments, thereby enabling reduced eutrophication in transitional waters.     

Influence of algal bloom degradation on nutrient release at the sediment–water interface in Lake Taihu, China

Algal bloom could drastically influence the nutrient cycling in lakes. To understand how the internal nutrient release responds to algal bloom decay, water and sediment columns were sampled at 22 sites from four distinct regions of China’s eutrophic Lake Taihu and incubated in the laboratory to examine the influence of massive algal bloom decay on nutrient release from sediment. The column experiment involved three treatments: (1) water and sediment (WS); (2) water and algal bloom (WA); and (3) water, sediment, and algal bloom (WSA). Concentrations of dissolved oxygen (DO), total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), ammonium (NH ₄ ⁺ -N), and orthophosphate (PO ₄ ^3? -P) were recorded during incubation. The decay of algal material caused a more rapid decrease in DO than in the algae-free controls and led to significant increases in NH ₄ ⁺ -N and PO ₄ ^3? -P in the water. The presence of algae during the incubation had a regionally variable effect on sediment nutrient profiles. In the absence of decaying algae (treatment WS), sediment nutrient concentrations decreased during the incubation. In the presence of blooms (WSA), sediments from the river mouth released P to the overlying water, while sediments from other regions absorbed surplus P from the water. This experiment showed that large-scale algal decay will dramatically affect nutrient cycling at the sediment–water interface and would potentially transfer the function of sediment as “container” or “supplier” in Taihu, although oxygen exchange with atmosphere in lake water was stronger than in columns. The magnitude of the effect depends on the physical–chemical character of the sediments.