云南松林燃烧过程中飞火的研究

飞火是高能量火中最复杂、最危险的现象,是在燃烧过程中由火焰热对流带出的未燃尽的木屑、炭块等可燃物,散布在火区外形成新的火点现象。飞火被看成除了传导、对流和辐射之外的第四种热量传递的方式。飞火的出现增加了新的火源,使火场的扩散由连续变成跳跃,大大加快了火灾的蔓延,有时还改变蔓延的方向。以＂3.29＂昆明安宁市森林火灾为研究对象,调查火烧迹地并取样,分析可燃物特征,并对飞火发生的距离进行模拟计算。结果表明,由于云南松林立地干燥,林内可燃物多,连续性好,地形复杂,小气候明显,易发生飞火;引发飞火的可燃物主要是云南松的球果;经验公式和模型计算的飞火距离与实际距离比较接近。     

北京西山森林潜在火行为及防火林带有效宽度分布研究

可燃物类型及其栽量分布是决定林火行为的重要因素.以北京西山试验林场魏家村分场为研究区域,根据样地调查和森林清查数据对可燃物类型进行分类,并对可燃物载量的空间分布进行研究.根据历史气象数据确定当地平均最大风速平均值为3.6m/s,平均最大风速的最大值为14m/s,在此情景下,结合DEM数据和可燃物数据对研究区域的林火强度进行计算,并对防火林带的有效参数进行确定.     

火灾的火环境与火行为

连片木结构山寨吊脚楼是广西西北部较为有特色的建筑群体.虽然,吊脚楼具有浓郁民族特色,但是一场大火就能把美丽的村寨化为了灰烬.目前,连片木结构山寨火灾已经引起了社会各界的关注,本文将通过对山寨火灾火环境与火行为的分析,较为系统的掌握连片木结构山寨火灾的形成过程,找出影响火灾传播过程的关键因素.     

分析连片木结构山寨 火灾的火环境与火行为

连片木结构山寨吊脚楼是广西西北部较为有特色的建筑群体。虽然,吊脚楼具有浓郁民族特色,但是一场大火就能把美丽的村寨化为了灰烬。目前,连片木结构山寨火灾已经引起了社会各界的关注,本文将通过对山寨火灾火环境与火行为的分析,较为系统的掌握连片木结构山寨火灾的形成过程,找出影响火灾传播过程的关键因素。     

辐射和倾角耦合作用下火蔓延行为特性

火蔓延行为决定了火灾发展规律及其后果,其行为特性常常受到多个参数的共同影响。为研究外部热源辐射和倾角对火蔓延行为的共同作用,开展了一系列不同外加辐射强度和倾角的木材(樟木)表面小尺寸火蔓延实验,测量了火蔓延过程中的关键特性参数,包括质量损失速率、火焰形态以及火蔓延速率。结果表明,质量损失速率、火焰面积和火蔓延速率都随着倾角和外加辐射强度的增加而增加,而且倾角越大外加辐射对试样质量损失速率的作用越明显。另外发现,倾角较小时,V_f~(-1/2)与辐射强度存在较好的线性关系,但是倾角较大时,该线性关系就不再满足。     

小尺度油品扬沸火灾火行为的实验研究

扬沸火灾作为原油油罐火灾中的一种特殊火灾现象,一旦发生将会造成巨大的灾害.扬沸时的火行为,特别是火焰的突变是造成危害的主要原因之一.采用红外热像仪对小尺度油罐油品扬沸火灾火焰温度场和火焰高度突变现象进行了实时研究,分析了火焰温度场突变的原因和火焰突变高度与油罐直径的关系.结果表明,油品扬沸时火焰的突变程度随油品黏度的增大而增大,扬沸时无量纲火焰高度随着油罐直径的增大而减小.可为研究大尺度的油罐扬沸火灾火行为提供一定的理论基础.     

不同边沿高度油池火燃烧行为的实验和数值模拟研究

采用实验和FDS数值模拟相结合的方法,探讨了边沿高度对油池火燃烧特性的影响。在实验部分,研究了燃烧速率和表观火焰高度随边沿高度的变化趋势,并分别分析了各个阶段的热反馈机制。在实验获得不同尺度、边沿高度正庚烷油池火燃烧速率的前提下,建立相应尺度的不同边沿高度油池火的Fire Dynamics Simulator(FDS)计算模型以针对火焰高度进行了数值模拟研究,分析了实际火焰高度、火焰下探高度随边沿高度的变化趋势,并提出了相关的无量纲拟合式。     

隧道彩色路面和侧墙设计对驾驶行为的影响分析

为探究不同隧道环境设计下驾驶绩效以及驾驶员的生、心理变化特性,采用3D Max软件搭建仿真试验场景,选取15名驾驶员开展不同隧道环境设计场景下的驾驶模拟试验,采集驾驶员的生、心理及车辆运行状态数据;选取具有代表性的车辆运行指标和驾驶员状态指标,构建驾驶行为趋势面模型,分析指标之间的相对敏感程度。研究结果表明：路面铺设彩色路面可提示驾驶员适当减速,其中,黄色系渐变彩色路面和纵向减速标线彩色路面的综合效果更佳,更利于安全行车;隧道内设置装饰侧墙可缓解隧道内驾驶员视觉信息单调的现象,考虑到隧道内行车安全和通行效率,建议采用蓝-白装饰侧墙。     

正念对应急疏散行为:风险感知和自我效能的中介作用*

为明确正念对应急疏散行为的影响机制,提高应急疏散效率,构建包含应急正念、风险感知、自我效能、掩蔽效应和应急疏散行为的概念模型,基于调查问卷结果,利用结构方程模型进行实证研究。研究结果表明:正念、风险感知和自我效能对应急疏散行为存在正向影响,正念通过风险感知和自我效能对应急疏散行为产生部分中介效应;掩蔽效应在自我效能影响应急疏散行为过程中具有显著调节作用;正念通过风险感知能力提高自我效能,进一步对应急疏散行为产生影响。研究结果可为缓解突发事件带来的不良情绪及压力,增强个体自信程度及风险感知能力,提高应急疏散效率提供参考和借鉴。     

恐惧诉求对职业驾驶员安全驾驶态度和行为意向的影响

研究以EPPM模型作为理论框架,探讨恐惧诉求对危险驾驶行为(超速和不系安全带)态度和行为意向的作用。54名职业驾驶员在观看交通安全恐惧诉求录像后,完成安全驾驶行为问卷。回归分析表明恐惧诉求的交通事故录像能够改变驾驶员对超速及不系安全带驾驶的态度和行为意向,但作用不完全一致。恐惧情绪唤起通过恐惧情感所引发的威胁评估过程中介对不超速行为意向的影响。最后,对研究的局限和未来的研究进行讨论。     

可燃物表面积和厚度对建筑物内火灾载荷的影响

火灾载荷是判断建筑物室内火灾危险程度的依据，以前人们对火灾载荷的研究局限于只考虑可燃物的种类和量，并没有考虑到可燃物的形状、厚度和摆放位置对火灾载荷的影响。该文建立了简单的模型讨论了可燃物的表面积和厚度对火灾载荷的影响，并应用这种模型对三个典型的建筑房间进行了火灾载荷的研究，取得了较好的结果。     

Improvement in the prediction of gasoline pool fire behaviour: CFD modelling and validation

The development and implementation of mathematical models through Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) techniques has been acknowledged as a promising tool for the prediction of hydrocarbon pool fires behaviours. In this sense, different approaches, with different assumptions and simplifications, and accounting for different phenomena, have been developed in the literature. However, the deviations in the predictions of the experimentally determined parameters, such as temperatures profiles, flame heights and radiative heat flux, by the implemented models are still high. Therefore, the implementation of these models to predict combustion phenomena and flame behaviours for various scenarios is limited. In this work, the software C3D is used to model gasoline pool fires of different diameters, and under different wind conditions, in order to improve the quality of the predictions of the flame behaviour. The modelled cases correspond to the experimental studies reported in literature. The results from the implemented model show an improved predictive quality when compared with other modelling works reported on literature for the same experimental cases. The deviations in the time averaged temperature, flame height, surface emissive power and radiative heat flux, has been calculated to be 5.0%, 0.05%, 6.32% and 3.82%, respectively.     

Cost-based fire risk assessment in natural gas industry by means of fuzzy FTA and ETA

Fire is the most prevalent accident in natural gas facilities. In order to assess the risk of fire in a gas processing plant, a fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA) has been developed in this paper. By utilizing FTA and ETA, the paths leading to an outcome event would be visually demonstrated. The framework was applied to a case study of processing plant in South Pars gas complex. All major underlying causes of fire accident in a gas processing facility determined through a process hazard analysis (PHA). Fuzzy logic has been employed to derive likelihood of basic events in FTA from uncertain opinion of experts. The outcome events in event tree has been simulated by computer model to evaluate their severity. In the proposed methodology the calculated risk has the unit of cost per year which allows the decision makers to discern the benefit of their investment in safety measures and risk mitigation.     

Evaluation on consequences prediction of fire accident in emergency processes for oil-gas storage and transportation by scenario deduction

This paper takes the safety in emergency processes as the starting point, from the perspective of scenario deduction, to study the consequences of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation. Through the statistical analysis of actual accident cases, 19 frequently occurring basic scenarios in emergency processes are summarized. The scenario evolution paths of fire accidents for oil-gas storage and transportation are given by analyzing the evolution law of the accident development. Fuzzy numbers are introduced to express experts' qualitative judgment on accident scenarios. The empirical probabilities of scenario nodes are obtained by defuzzification calculation, and the state probability of each scenario node is calculated by using the dynamic Bayesian network joint probability formula. Under the comprehensive consideration about the probability statistics of actual accident cases, the critical scenario nodes on the evolution path and their final scenario probabilities are jointly determined to realize the optimization of the scenario evolution path. By constructing the correlation between the optimized scenario evolution path and the accident consequences, an accident consequence prediction model is established. The occurrence probability of accident consequences is calculated by the defuzzification method and dynamic Bayesian network. The accuracy of the consequence prediction model is verified by the July 16 Dalian's Xingang Harbor oil pipeline explosion accident. The research results provide scientific basis for helping decision makers to make the effective emergency measures that are most conducive to the rapid elimination of accidents and reducing the severity of accident consequences.     

公路隧道火灾环境人群逃生行为分析及多项Logit建模*

为提高隧道疏散效率,研究环境、社会和个人因素对逃生行为的影响。基于虚拟现实技术从心理学和行为学角度对公路隧道逃生行为及影响因素进行研究,利用Unity 3D建立虚拟场景下的公路隧道场景,通过步行模拟器和ErgoLAB无线生理模块采集步速和心电;应用核密度曲线研究平均心率的变化特性;采用Hermite插值法描述步速的变化趋势。在试验结果的基础上,构建基于多项Logit的逃生行为模型。结果表明:平静状态下,男性的平均心率个体差异性较大,运动状态下,女性的平均心率波动较大;测试者在隧道内遇到障碍物会降低步速,在逐渐深入并穿越人群的过程中,呈现步速加快的特征;逃生行为的MNL模型R2和准确度分别达到87.41%和92%;隧道内障碍物越少,前方人群越多,且能见度越差,人越容易处于恐慌状态,更倾向于跟随他人。研究结果可为火灾环境下的公路隧道人群疏散模型的建立提供参考,对避免人员伤亡和减少财产损失具有实际意义。     

井喷喷射火热辐射影响范围与模型对比分析研究

为了评价井喷事故时喷射火的风险,对比分析Flacs、Thornton模型和点源模型在不同泄漏速率、风速下喷射火热辐射强度计算结果,探讨在相同泄漏速率或相同风速下各模型之间的差异.根据塔里木某口油井的工况,分析在风速为7 m/s,泄漏速率分别为200,170,140,120,90 kg/s和在泄漏速率为140 kg/s时...