The evolution of mass balance models of persistent organic pollutant fate in the environment

Current approaches to modelling the fate of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the environment have evolved in response to four dominant characteristics of these substances; namely: (1) the presence of POPs in virtually all environmental phases and the ease with which they move from one to the other requires multi-compartmental modelling. Describing transport across phase boundaries becomes as, or even more, important as quantifying transport within the phases; (2) POPs may persist in the environment for many decades. For chemicals that 'have time', concepts such as equilibrium partitioning and steady-state become more important than for short-lived substances whose fate is more controlled by the rates of transformation; (3) measuring POPs is difficult and expensive and observed concentrations of POPs are not available in high spatial or temporal resolution. Consequently, high resolution tends not to be a high priority in POP models; and (4) detrimental effects of POPs often manifest themselves in top predators, which has led to a focus on modelling biotic uptake and transfer within food chains. The task of building a POPs model is viewed as combining the four 'building blocks' of partitioning, transport, transformation and source data with the help of the law of the conservation of mass. Process models, evaluative models, models of real local, regional and global fate, as well as biological uptake models are presented and references to numerous examples are provided. An attempt is made to forecast future directions in the field of POPs modelling. It is expected that modelling techniques that do not rely on quantitative emission estimates as well as approaches that take into account spatial, temporal and climatic variability as well as parameter uncertainty will increase in importance. Finally, the relationship between modelling POPs and models of other pollutant issues is addressed, as are potential interactions between POPs and pollutant issues such as eutrophication, acidification and global climate change.     

Emission and Fate Assessment of Methyl Tertiary Butyl Ether in the Boston Area Airshed Using a Simple Multimedia Box Model: Comparison with Urban Air Measurements

Abstract

Expected urban air concentrations of the gasoline additive methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) were calculated using volatile emissions estimates and screening transport models, and these predictions were compared with Boston, MA, area urban air measurements. The total volatile flux of MTBE into the Boston primary metropolitan statistical area (PMSA) airshed was calculated based on estimated automobile nontailpipe emissions and the Universal Quasi-Chemical Functional-Group Activity Coefficient computed abundance of MTBE in gasoline vapor. The fate of MTBE in the Boston PMSA was assessed using both the European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances, which is a steady-state multimedia box model, and a simple airshed box model. Both models were parameterized based on the meteorological conditions observed during air sampling in the Boston area. Measured average urban air concentrations of 0.1 and 1 [H9262]g/m³ MTBE during February and September of 2000, respectively, were comparable to corresponding model predictions of 0.3 and 1 μg/m³ and could be essentially explained from estimated temperature-dependent volatile emissions rates, observed average wind speed (the airshed flushing rate), and reaction with ambient tropospheric hydroxyl radical (.OH), within model uncertainty. These findings support the proposition that one can estimate gasoline component source fluxes and use simple multimedia models to screen the potential impact of future proposed gasoline additives on urban airsheds.     

Model and input uncertainty in multi-media fate modeling: benzo[a]pyrene concentrations in Europe

This paper evaluates the contribution of (i) uncertainty in substance properties, (ii) lack of spatial variability, (iii) intermodel differences and (iv) neglecting sorption to black carbon (BC) to the uncertainty of Benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) concentrations in European air, soil and fresh water predicted by the multi-media fate model Simplebox. Uncertainty in substance properties was quantified using probabilistic modeling. The influence of spatial variability was quantified by estimating variation in predicted concentrations with three spatially explicit fate models (Impact 2002, EVn BETR and BETR Global). Intermodel differences were quantified by comparing concentration estimates of Simplebox, Impact 2002, EVn BETR and the European part of BETR Global. Finally, predictions of a BC-inclusive version of Simplebox were compared with predictions of a BC-exclusive version. For air concentrations of BaP, the lack of spatial variability in emissions was most influential. For freshwater concentrations of BaP, intermodel differences and lack of spatial variability in dimensions of fresh water bodies were the dominant sources of uncertainty. For soil, all sources of uncertainty were of comparable magnitude. Our results indicate that uncertainty in Simplebox can be as large as three orders of magnitude for BaP concentrations in the environment and would be substantially underestimated by focusing on one source of uncertainty only.     

Emission and fate assessment of methyl tertiary butyl ether in the Boston area airshed using a simple multimedia box model: comparison with urban air measurements

Expected urban air concentrations of the gasoline additive methyl tertiary butyl ether (MTBE) were calculated using volatile emissions estimates and screening transport models, and these predictions were compared with Boston, MA, area urban air measurements. The total volatile flux of MTBE into the Boston primary metropolitan statistical area (PMSA) airshed was calculated based on estimated automobile nontailpipe emissions and the Universal Quasi-Chemical Functional-Group Activity Coefficient computed abundance of MTBE in gasoline vapor. The fate of MTBE in the Boston PMSA was assessed using both the European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances, which is a steady-state multimedia box model, and a simple airshed box model. Both models were parameterized based on the meteorological conditions observed during air sampling in the Boston area. Measured average urban air concentrations of 0.1 and 1 microg/m3 MTBE during February and September of 2000, respectively, were comparable to corresponding model predictions of 0.3 and 1 microg/m3 and could be essentially explained from estimated temperature-dependent volatile emissions rates, observed average wind speed (the airshed flushing rate), and reaction with ambient tropospheric hydroxyl radical (*OH), within model uncertainty. These findings support the proposition that one can estimate gasoline component source fluxes and use simple multimedia models to screen the potential impact of future proposed gasoline additives on urban airsheds.     

Development of a Dynamic Aquatic Model (DynA Model): Estimating Temporal Emissions of DDT to Lake Maggiore (N. Italy)

- DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1065/espr2006.01.009 Background, Aims and Scope Most existing models used to describe the fate of chemicals in surface water and sediment generally consider a 'static scenario', in which a contaminant is discharged at a constant rate and environmental input parameters do not change during the simulation time. This approach is not suitable in environmental scenarios characterized by daily or periodic changes of several input parameters. The aim of this study is to estimate approximate emissions of DDT lo Lake Maggiore using a new surface water model, (DynA Model) that describes the fate of a chemical in a dynamic scenario. Methods The model is developed on the grounds of an existing and validated model (QWASI). A numerical solution was adopted to build the fully dynamic version of the model. Results and Discussion The model was applied to Lake Maggiore emitting DDT at a constant rate until steady-state was reached. Emissions were stopped and later sporadic 'pulse' emissions were added. This was done to calculate the amount of DDT needed to simulate concentrations close to those measured in water and sediments. This allowed the evaluation of the order of magnitude of emissions. An uncertainty analysis for sediment resuspension was also performed, given the lack of measured resuspension rates. Conclusion The model showed the time response of the Lake Maggiore system to varying emission scenarios and provided what are regarded as reasonable estimates of DDT emissions. The model demonstrated the importance of sediment-water exchange. Recommendation and Outlook In order to better calculate DDT concentrations the model should be run with different discharge scenarios to clarify the time trends of concentrations, possibly with the use of different sets of measured data (such as biota and sediment deposition/resuspension rates).     

Comparison of the industrial source complex and AERMOD dispersion models: case study for human health risk assessment

Air quality models are typically used to predict the fate and transport of air emissions from industrial sources to comply with federal and state regulatory requirements and environmental standards, as well as to determine pollution control requirements. For many years, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) widely used the Industrial Source Complex (ISC) model because of its broad applicability to multiple source types. Recently, EPA adopted a new rule that replaces ISC with AERMOD, a state-of-the-practice air dispersion model, in many air quality impact assessments. This study compared the two models as well as their enhanced versions that incorporate the Plume Rise Model Enhancements (PRIME) algorithm. PRIME takes into account the effects of building downwash on plume dispersion. The comparison used actual point, area, and volume sources located on two separate facilities in conjunction with site-specific terrain and meteorological data. The modeled maximum total period average ground-level air concentrations were used to calculate potential health effects for human receptors. The results show that the switch from ISC to AERMOD and the incorporation of the PRIME algorithm tend to generate lower concentration estimates at the point of maximum ground-level concentration. However, the magnitude of difference varies from insignificant to significant depending on the types of the sources and the site-specific conditions. The differences in human health effects, predicted using results from the two models, mirror the concentrations predicted by the models.     

Assessment of the Nested Grid Model Estimates for Driving Regional Visibility Models in the Southwestern United States

ABSTRACT

The Nested Grid Model (NGM) is a primitive-equation meteorological model that is routinely exercised over North America for forecasting purposes by the National Meteorological Center. While prognostic meteorological models are being increasingly used to drive air quality models, their use in conducting annual simulations requires significant resources. NGM estimates of wind fields and other meteorological variables provide an attractive alternative since they are typically archived and readily available for an entire year. Preliminary evaluation of NGM winds during the summer of 1992 for application to the region surrounding the Grand Canyon National Park showed serious shortcomings. The NGM winds along the borders between California, Arizona and Mexico tend to be northwesterly with a speed of about 6 m/sec, while the observed flow is predominantly southerly at about 2-5 m/sec. The mesoscale effect of a thermal low pressure area over the highly heated Southern California and western Arizona deserts does not appear to be represented by the NGM because of its coarse resolution and the use of sparse observations in that region. Tracer simulations and statistical evaluation against special high resolution observations of winds in the southwest United States clearly demonstrate the northwest bias in NGM winds and its adverse effect on predictions of an air quality model. The “enhanced” NGM winds, in which selected wind observations are incorporated in the NGM winds using a diagnostic meteorological model provide additional confirmation on the primary cause of the northwest bias. This study has demonstrated that in situations where limited resources prevent the use of prognostic meteorological models, previously archived coarse resolution wind fields in which additional observations are incorporated to correct known biases provide an attractive option.     

Water Exchange on a Geological Timescale - Examples from Two Coastal Sites in the Baltic Sea

The water turnover of two coastal areas, Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp, has been modeled for 13 selected years between 6500 bc and 9000 ad by utilizing information about past, present, and future bathymetry. The Forsmark area can be described as an open-ended funnel, and is analyzed with a 3D-model (MIKE 3-FM); the Laxemar area is partitioned into clusters of sub-basins treated with a discrete coupled basin model (CouBa). In all simulations, the main variation factor is the land uplift. The 3D-model domain is successively modified. For the CouBa approach the successive basin configurations are objectively deduced based on the 3D domain modifications. The average age (AvA) of the resident water relative to the open coast is generally lower for the Forsmark area. A typical progression is that the AvA values increase until a sub-basin ceases to be connected to the coastal zone. This disconnection is often preceded by a lowered AvA.     

Evaluating multimedia/multipathway model intake fraction estimates using POP emission and monitoring data

This paper presents a structured evaluation of a novel multimedia chemical fate and multi-pathway human exposure model for Western Europe, IMPACT 2002, using data for PCDD/F congeners. PCDD/F congeners provide an illustration of the potential use of POPs (Persistent Organic Pollutant) data for the evaluation of such models. Based on available emission estimates, model predictions with and without spatial resolution are evaluated at three different stages against monitored data: at environmental contamination levels, food exposure concentration, and in terms of human intake fractions (iF): the fraction of an emission that is taken in by the population. The iF is approximately 3.5.10(-3) for emissions of dioxin in Western Europe. This iF compares well to the traditional non-spatial multi-media/-pathway model predictions of 3.9.10(-3) for the same region and to 2.10(-3) for the USA. Approximately 95% of the intake from Western European emissions occurs within the same region, 5% being transferred out of the region in terms of food contaminants and atmospheric advective transport.     

环境中的邻苯二甲酸酯

本文较为系统地评述了邻苯二甲酸酯的环境行为、生态效应、环境归趋、数学模型和处理技术。指出邻苯二甲酸酯是生产量大和应用面广的人工合成有机化学品,是目前世界上全球性的一类环境有机污染物。这类化合物的低水溶度和低挥发性导致了它们的高吸附亲和性,从而使得该类化合物在固体颗粒物表面的行为对于研究它们在环境中各种过程具有十分重要的作用。     

Development of a black carbon-inclusive multi-media model: application for PAHs in Stockholm

A multi-media model was developed for predicting the fate of organic chemicals in the Greater Stockholm Area, Sweden, and applied to selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Although urban models have been previously developed, this model is novel in that it includes sorption to pyrogenically-derived particles, commonly termed "black carbon" (BC), within the model structure. To examine the influence of BC sorption on environmental fate of PAHs, two versions of the model were generated and run: one in which sorption to BC was included and one in which BC sorption was excluded. The inclusion of BC sorption did not cause any significant variations to air levels, but it did cause an average 20-30% increase in sediment concentrations related to increased sediment solids partitioning. The model also predicted reduced advective losses out of the model domain, as well as chemical potential to diffuse from sediments, whilst total chemical inventory increased. In all cases, the lighter PAHs were more affected by BC inclusion than their heavier counterparts. We advocate the addition of sorption to BC in future multi-media fate and exposure models, which as well as influencing fate will also alter (lower) chemical availability and, thus, wildlife exposure to hydrophobic chemicals. A quantification of the latter was derived with the help of the soot-inclusive model version, which estimated a lowering of dissolved water concentrations between five and >200 times for the different PAHs of this study.     

Fate of hydrophobic organic pollutants in the aquatic environment: a review

The fate of hydrophobic organic pollutants in the aquatic environment is controlled by a variety of physical, chemical and biological processes. Some of the most important are physical transport, chemical and biological transformations, and distribution of these compounds between the various environmental compartments (atmosphere, water, sediments and biota). The major biogeochemical processes that control the fate of hydrophobic organic compounds in the aquatic environment are reviewed. These processes include evaporation, solubilization, interaction with dissolved organic matter, sediment-water partitioning, bioaccumulation and degradation. Physico-chemical parameters used to predict the aquatic fate of such compounds are also discussed.     

Linking a one-dimensional pesticide fate model to a three-dimensional groundwater model to simulate pollution risks of shallow and deep groundwater underlying fractured till

The one-dimensional pesticide fate model MACRO was loose-linked to the three-dimensional discrete fracture/matrix diffusion model FRAC3DVS to describe transport of the pesticide mecoprop in a fractured moraine till and local sand aquifer (5-5.5 m depth) overlying a regional limestone aquifer (16 m depth) at Havdrup, Denmark. Alternative approaches to describe the upper boundary in the groundwater model were examined. Field-scale simulations were run to compare a uniform upper boundary condition with a spatially variable upper boundary derived from Monte-Carlo simulations with MACRO. Plot-scale simulations were run to investigate the influence of the temporal resolution of the upper boundary conditions for fluxes in the groundwater model and the effects of different assumptions concerning the macropore/fracture connectivity between the two models. The influence of within-field variability of leaching on simulated mecoprop concentrations in the local aquifer was relatively small. A fully transient simulation with FRAC3DVS gave 20 times larger leaching to the regional aquifer compared to the case with steady-state water flow, assuming full connectivity with respect to macropores/fractures across the boundary between the two models. For fully transient simulations 'disconnecting' the macropores/fractures at the interface between the two models reduced leaching by a factor 24. A fully connected, transient simulation with FRAC3DVS, with spatially uniform upper boundary fluxes derived from a MACRO simulation with 'effective' parameters is therefore recommended for assessing leaching risks to the regional aquifer, at this, and similar sites.     

Approach for extrapolating in vitro metabolism data to refine bioconcentration factor estimates

National and international chemical management programs are assessing thousands of chemicals for their persistence, bioaccumulative and environmental toxic properties; however, data for evaluating the bioaccumulation potential for fish are limited. Computer based models that account for the uptake and elimination processes that contribute to bioaccumulation may help to meet the need for reliable estimates. One critical elimination process of chemicals is metabolic transformation. It has been suggested that in vitro metabolic transformation tests using fish liver hepatocytes or S9 fractions can provide rapid and cost-effective measurements of fish metabolic potential, which could be used to refine bioconcentration factor (BCF) computer model estimates. Therefore, recent activity has focused on developing in vitro methods to measure metabolic transformation in cellular and subcellular fish liver fractions. A method to extrapolate in vitro test data to the whole body metabolic transformation rates is presented that could be used to refine BCF computer model estimates. This extrapolation approach is based on concepts used to determine the fate and distribution of drugs within the human body which have successfully supported the development of new pharmaceuticals for years. In addition, this approach has already been applied in physiologically-based toxicokinetic models for fish. The validity of the in vitro to in vivo extrapolation is illustrated using the rate of loss of parent chemical measured in two independent in vitro test systems: (1) subcellular enzymatic test using the trout liver S9 fraction, and (2) primary hepatocytes isolated from the common carp. The test chemicals evaluated have high quality in vivo BCF values and a range of logK(ow) from 3.5 to 6.7. The results show very good agreement between the measured BCF and estimated BCF values when the extrapolated whole body metabolism rates are included, thus suggesting that in vitro biotransformation data could effectively be used to reduce in vivo BCF testing and refine BCF model estimates. However, additional fish physiological data for parameterization and validation for a wider range of chemicals are needed.     

Sorption behavior of dibutyl phthalate and dioctyl phthalate by aged refuse

Sorption is a fundamental process controlling the transformation, fate, degradation, and biological activity of hydrophobic organic contaminants in the environment. We investigated the kinetics, isotherms, and potential mechanisms for the sorption of two phthalic acid esters (PAEs), dibutyl phthalate (DBP) and dioctyl phthalate (DOP), on aged refuse. A two-compartment first-order model performed better than a one-compartment first-order model in describing the kinetic sorption of PAEs, with a fast sorption process dominating. Both the Freundlich and Dubinin–Astakhov (DA) models fit the sorption isotherms of DBP and DOP, with the DA model being of a better fit over the range of apparent equilibrium concentrations. The values of the fitting parameters (n, b, E) of the PAEs suggest nonlinear sorption characteristics. Higher predicted partition coefficient values and saturated sorption capacity existed in refuse containing larger quantities of organic matter. The sorption capacity of DOP was significantly higher than that of DBP. PAE sorption was dependent on liquid phase pH. Desorption hysteresis occurred in PAE desorption experiments, especially for the long-chain DOP. PAEs may therefore be a potential environmental risk in landfill.     

Modeling exposure to particulate matter

Exposure assessment, a component of risk assessment, links sources of pollution with health effects. Exposure models are scientific tools used to gain insights into the processes affecting exposure assessment. The purpose of this paper is to review the process and methodology of estimating inhalation exposure to particulate matter (PM) using various types of models. Three types of models are discussed in the paper. Indirect type of models are physical models that employ inventories of outdoor and indoor sources and their emission rates to identify major sources contributing to exposure to PM, and use fate and transport and indoor air quality models to estimate PM concentrations at receptor sites. PM concentrations and time spent by a subject at each receptor site are input variables to the conventional exposure model that estimates the desired exposure levels. Direct type models use measured exposure or exposure concentrations in conjunction with information obtained from questionnaires to formulate exposure regression models. Stochastic models use exposure measurements, estimates can also be used, to formulate exposure population distributions and investigate associated uncertainty and variability. Since models developed using databases from western countries are not necessarily applicable in developing countries, the difference in requirements among western and developing countries is highlighted in the paper. Employment of exposure modeling methods in developing countries requires development of local information. Such information includes local outdoor and indoor source inventories, local or regional meteorological conditions, adjustment of indoor models to reflect local building construction conditions, and use of questionnaires to obtain local time budget and activity patterns of the subject population.     

A Comparative Validation of the RAM and PTMTP Models for Short-Term SO2 Concentrations in Two Urban Areas

A comprehensive and comparative model validation of two EPA models for short-term SO₂ concentrations was performed. The two models tested were RAM (Urban version) and PTMTP (Terrain version). Both are multiple source, multiple receptor gaussian plume models, recommended in the EPA Guideline On Air Quality Models. ¹ The principal difference between the two models is in their use of empirical dispersion coefficients. It was because of the potential for markedly different predicted maximum SO₂ concentrations, and the absence of any testing data on the RAM model, that the validation analysis was undertaken. The current study utilized a full year of air quality data from monitoring sites in two Indiana cities, Michigan City and Indianapolis. Cumulative frequency distributions for each site and model were prepared and comparisons made. The results indicate that the RAM (Urban) model was highly inaccurate in predicting maximum short-term SO₂ concentrations. The PTMTP model, although conservative in its estimates, produces results which more closely resemble the distribution of observed SO₂ concentrations. The body of information presented in this paper is directed to environmental scientists responsible for air quality modeling, and to those persons who set policy on the use of models in air quality studies.     

Environmental properties and effects of nonionic surfactant adjuvants in pesticides: a review

Little is known about the environmental fate of adjuvants after application on the agricultural land. Adjuvants constitute a broad range of substances, of which solvents and surfactants are the major types. Nonionic surfactants such as alcohol ethoxylates (AEOs) and alkylamine ethoxylates (ANEOs) are typically examples of pesticide adjuvants. In view of their chemical structure this paper outlines present knowledge on occurrence, fate and effect on the aquatic and terrestrial environment of the two adjuvants: AEOs and ANEOs.Both AEOs and ANEOs are used as technical mixtures. This implies that they are not one single compound but a whole range of compounds present in different ratios. Structurally both groups of substances have a mutual core with side chains of varying lengths. Each of these compounds besides having the overall ability to distribute between different phases also possesses some single compound behaviour. This is reflected in the parameters describing the fate e.g. distribution coefficient, leaching, run-off, adsorption to soil, degradation and effects of these substances. The adsorption behaviour of ANEOs in contrast to AEOs is particularly variable and matrix dependent due to the ability of the compound to ionise at environmentally relevant pH. Probably because the compounds exceeds high soil adsorption and are easily degradable which is reflected in the low environmental concentrations generally found in monitoring studies. The compounds generally possess low potency to both terrestrial and aquatic organisms. The major environmental problem related to these compounds is the ability to enhance the mobility of other pollutants in the soil column.     

A GIS-based multimedia watershed model: development and application

A multimedia model was developed using publicly available geographical information system (GIS) data, chemical release information and local monitoring networks to assess the fate of trichloroethene (TCE) within the Passaic River Watershed. Seven environmental media, air, water, sediment, surface soil, terrestrial vegetation, root zone soil and vadose zone soil, were modeled in this study along with their sub-compartments. The Passaic River Watershed is described using the NJDEP geographical information system (GIS) resources, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the United States Soil Conservation Services (US SCS) soil data. The introduction of spatial resolution to a multimedia, unsteady state model is performed in this work, and represents an important step in expanding the use of equilibrium models to provide far reaching information on the fate of toxic contaminants within a given environmental unit. The spatial representation of cross-boundary fluxes was successfully demonstrated with the use of sub-watershed as an environmental unit and the direct assessment of TCE for each of the 11 sub-watersheds that make up the Passaic River Basin in northern New Jersey. Important data gaps identified during the development of this model include the lack of comprehensive monitoring data on organic contaminants, and non-uniformity among available physical environmental data from different government agencies.     

Observations and Model Simulations of Carbon Monoxide Emission Factors from a California Highway

ABSTRACT

A series of twelve intensively monitored 1-hr CO dispersion studies were conducted near Davis, CA, in winter 1996. The experimental equipment included twelve CO sampling ports at elevations up to 50 m, three sonic anemometers, a tethersonde station, aircraft measurements of wind and temperature profile aloft, and a variety of conventional meteorological equipment. The study was designed to explore the role of vehicular exhaust buoyancy during worst-case meteorological conditions, such as low winds oriented in near-parallel alignment with the road during a surface-based nocturnal inversion. From the study, field estimates of the CO emission factor (EF) from a California vehicle fleet were computed using two different methods. The analysis suggests that the CT-EMFAC/ EMFAC (EMission FACtor) models currently used to conduct federal conformity modeling significantly overpredict CO emissions for high-speed, free-flowing traffic on California highways.